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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 589661 times)

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10450 on: December 29, 2020, 02:52:33 PM »

The researchers found an antibody prevalence rate of 4.43% for Covid-19 among residents in Wuhan, a metropolis of 11 million people. As of Sunday, Wuhan had reported a total of 50,354 confirmed cases of Covid-19, according to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

That is very well aligned with
- the level of undertesting during the first wave that we suffered in Europe as well.
- the IFR of 0.5 to 1.0% that was determined in numerous studies for mid Latitude countries during the first wave.

Therefore, if the study is to be trusted, it just confirms that the Chinese numbers given for the first and lonely wave in Wuhan are at least as “trustable” as the European ones (factor of 10 underreporting of cases, factor of 1 to 1.5 underreporting of deaths depending on the country).

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10451 on: December 29, 2020, 03:07:48 PM »
England Could See Tougher 'Tier 5' Covid Restrictions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/tier-5-england-faces-possible-new-covid-restrictions-source-says

National restrictions are needed to prevent a “catastrophe” in the UK at the start of 2021, a member of the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) has warned. Andrew Hayward, a professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at University College London, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

... I think we are entering a very dangerous new phase of the pandemic and we’re going to need decisive, early, national action to prevent a catastrophe in January and February.

A 50% increase in transmissibility means that the previous levels of restrictions that worked before won’t work now, and so Tier 4 restrictions are likely to be necessary or even higher than that.

I think we’re really looking at a situation where we’re moving into near lockdown, but we’ve got to learn the lessons from the first lockdown.


A study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has also concluded that the UK must vaccinate 2 million people a week to avoid a third wave.


-------------------------------------------

The number of deaths in the Netherlands increased at the highest rate since the second world war this year due to the pandemic, the Dutch national statistics office (CBS) has said.

Up to last week, about 162,000 deaths were reported in the country of 17 million this year; 13,000 more than would have been expected, the CBS said.

... Such an increase of the number of deceased has not been reported since World War Two

About 9,000 people more than normal died during the first wave between early March and early May, the CBS said, while more than 6,000 extra fatalities have been reported since the start of the second wave mid-September.

The number of deaths was lower than normal in most other weeks, the statisticians said.

A total of 770,400 people in the Netherlands have tested positive since the start of the pandemic. More than 11,000 patients are known to have died from the disease.

The actual number of infections and fatalities is likely to be significantly higher, as a shortage of testing and lab capacity meant only seriously ill patients were tested during the first months of the pandemic

--------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10452 on: December 29, 2020, 03:15:31 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/28/russia-admits-to-world-third-worst-covid-19-death-toll-underreported
  seems to have gone unreported here .. remember .. trust your government ! b.c.

This does not surprise me. I tend to ignore or disbelieve the case and death totals from many countries (India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, China etc.), anywhere that the health care system cannot possibly address the crisis so deaths simply go unrecognized and in nations where governments deliberately lie.

There are nations that I consider to be gold standards where nations like the U.S. should be compared. South Korea being a notable example, Japan another. By their standard, we have failed completely in handling this pandemic.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10453 on: December 29, 2020, 03:53:47 PM »
L.A. County Issues Most Dire Coronavirus Warnings Yet: Hospitals In Crisis as Death Toll Surges Toward 10,000
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-28/hospitals-postpone-surgeries-warn-of-rationed-care-amid-covid-19?_amp=true

According to the latest state data, there are 7,181 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in L.A. County; 1,449 of them are in intensive care units. Both figures are the highest seen at any point in the pandemic.

Ghaly said Monday that approximately 50% of the county’s currently staffed beds, and just over two-thirds of staffed ICU beds, are filled by COVID-19 patients.

Among the four county-operated hospitals, a stunning 86% of ICU patients have COVID-19, Ghaly said. The majority of nonessential surgeries and procedures in those facilities have been postponed, and officials are working to discharge patients to skilled nursing facilities, outpatient dialysis sites and other locations.

Virtually all hospitals in L.A. County are being forced to divert ambulances with certain types of patients elsewhere because they are too crowded. On Sunday, 94% of the county’s hospitals that take in patients from 911 calls were diverting some patients in ambulances.

There are situations in which 10 ambulances are waiting to offload patients at emergency rooms, forcing patients to be treated in the vehicles for as long as eight hours.

Hospitals are also having problems getting oxygen to critically ill COVID-19 patients who are struggling to breathe. Such problems on Sunday caused at least five hospitals in L.A. County to declare an internal disaster, which closes them to all ambulance traffic.

The problem, Ghaly said, is a shortage of the oxygen canisters needed so patients can return home while receiving treatment, as well as the breakdown of aging hospital pipes that are buckling under huge demand.

At Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center, the situation reached “massive crisis” mode Sunday evening, according to chief medical officer Dr. Brad Spellberg.

There was not one available bed for at least 30 patients who needed intensive or intermediate levels of care, Spellberg said, and the hospital had to shut

Patients, including some who were very sick and required intensive oxygen, experienced wait times as long as 18 hours.

Conditions at the hospital — one of the largest trauma centers in the western U.S. — have been steadily worsening since Thanksgiving, with an average of 10 new COVID-19 patients arriving each day.

And the expected “Christmas bump” hasn’t even begun.

“When you walk into the ICU, and you see every bed occupied by a ventilated COVID patient, with tubes coming in all orifices of their body, you begin to understand that we are not dealing with what we were dealing with 10 months ago,” Spellberg said.

Should the medical system be stretched too far, officials warn, there may not be sufficient staffing or resources to provide critical care to all who need it, which would significantly increase the mortality rate.

“The sad reality is that all indicators tell us that our situation may only get worse as we begin 2021,” said L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer. “The rate of community transmission remains extraordinarily high, and this has taxed our hospital system, as more COVID-19 patients continue to stream in, on top of the thousands of patients already fighting for their lives.”

-------------------------------------------

Huntington Hospital in Pasadena Warning of Grim Possibility of Rationing In an Information Sheet for Patients and Their Families.
https://www.huntingtonhospital.org/our-services/emergency-trauma/hospital-preparedness-covid-19-information/care-during-a-public-health-emergency/

Quote
...Should the situation “reach a point where our hospital faces a shortage that will affect our ability to care for all patients,” officials wrote, then a clinical committee consisting of doctors, a community member, a bioethicist, a spiritual care provider and other experts “will review the cases of all patients who are critically ill” and “make necessary decisions about allocating limited medical resources based on the best medical information possible and will use the same decision criteria that is being used nationally and throughout California on all patient cases.”

“This unburdens bedside staff from making any decisions about triaging care when resources are scarce, and instead delegates those to a committee who will follow an ethical framework for decision-making,” hospital officials added in a statement Monday. “Importantly, no one person will make a caregiving decision, and the committee will be given no information about patient race, ethnicity, religion, citizenship, insurance or any other information unrelated to the patient’s health. ...

-----------------------------------------

... In Southern California, Kaiser is not scheduling any new elective surgeries through the end of January.

“We are facing an unprecedented surge of patients with COVID-19, and the number of available ICU beds continues to dwindle,” Kaiser officials said in a statement Monday. “Last week, 52% of our hospitalized patients in Southern California were being treated for COVID-19. Today, that number has soared to 82%.”

Given the sheer number of patients, Kaiser is “converting and using every available space possible, including former conference rooms, waiting rooms, recovery areas and other nontraditional areas in the hospital.”

... As of Sunday, the most recent day for which complete data are available, there were 19,766 COVID-19 patients hospitalized statewide — an all-time high, and 45% more than two weeks ago. Of those patients, 4,228 were in intensive care, also a record.

There’s real fear that a post-holiday “surge on top of a surge” could be too much for overworked hospital staff.

“It is a very, very different and infinitely more dangerous situation to have hospitals experiencing a surge when the staff are exhausted, they’re stretched thin, and they’re already caring for more patients than they can safely handle,” Christina Ghaly said.

-----------------------------------------

San Diego Hospital Morgues Overflow as Coronavirus Surge Increases
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-28/hospital-morgues-overfilling-as-hospitalization-surge-increases

San Diego County’s healthcare system reached a stark milestone over the weekend as dwindling hospital morgue capacity forced the county medical examiner to begin storing the deceased.

A medical examiner transport vehicle removed five bodies from Sharp Grossmont Hospital in La Mesa over the weekend, officials confirmed in an email, after the facility’s morgue filled past capacity.

Dr. Steven Campman, San Diego County’s interim medical examiner, said in an email Monday that four hospitals have notified his office recently that their morgues were near capacity. The situation has unfolded as San Diego County experiences its most significant surge in COVID-19 deaths to date.

“They were ultimately able to handle the situation after contacting local funeral homes,” Campman said. Sunday “was the first day a hospital exceeded its capability, so the facility management plan has been put into use, and the county is storing some of the decedents from that hospital.”

... “They don’t want to put the [refrigerated] trucks all over the place, but they will help us if it gets to that point,” she said.

It was about two weeks ago, said Dr. Ghazala Sharieff, chief medical officer of clinical excellence and experience at Scripps Health, that one of the system’s hospitals faced a similar situation with all morgue storage full. As Campman indicated, the situation was resolved through calls to mortuaries, which were able to provide temporary storage, Sharieff said.

... As of Monday, COVID-19 patients occupied 393 of 617 ICU beds. The ICU bed capacity in the county is 743, though that number does not reflect the number of beds for which staffing was immediately available. Over the past two weeks, the remaining number of staffed adult ICU beds has been estimated at fewer than 40. COVID-19 patients have outnumbered patients without the disease in ICU beds since Dec. 15.

Sharieff said Scripps, like its healthcare colleagues, is preparing for the moment when treatment capacity becomes so overwhelmed that the system shifts into “crisis care” mode. At that point, she said, Scripps and all other acute-care hospitals will begin following state-specified triage guidelines, which provide a framework to help specially designated “triage teams” decide who should get ICU beds and mechanical ventilators and who should go without.

Teams will also be asked to decide who should be removed from critical care resources if they are not progressing under intensive care.

Hospitals received a special letter from the state Monday evening directing them to notify their public agencies the moment they shift into crisis mode.

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHCQ/LCP/Pages/AFL-20-91.aspx
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10454 on: December 29, 2020, 04:34:32 PM »
An Explanation for Low Blood Oxygenation Detected In Many COVID-19 Patients
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-explanation-lack-blood-oxygenation-covid-.html

One of the physiopathological characteristics of COVID-19 that has most baffled the scientific and medical community is what is known as "silent hypoxemia," or "happy hypoxia." Patients suffering this phenomenon, the causes of which are still unknown, have severe pneumonia with markedly decreased arterial blood oxygen levels (known as hypoxemia). However, they do not report dyspnea (subjective feeling of shortness of breath) or increased breathing rates, which are usually characteristic symptoms of people with hypoxemia from pneumonia or any other cause.

Patients with "silent hypoxemia" often suffer a sudden imbalance, reaching a critical state that can be fatal. Normally, individuals (healthy or sick) with hypoxemia report a feeling of shortness of breath and a higher breathing rate, thus increasing the body's uptake of oxygen. This reflex mechanism depends on the carotid bodies. These small organs, located on either side of the neck next to the carotid artery, detect the drop in blood oxygen and send signals to the brain to stimulate the respiratory centre.

A group of researchers from the Seville Institute of Biomedicine—IBiS/University Hospitals Virgen del Rocío y Macarena/CSIC/University of Seville—specialists in the physiopathological study of the carotid body, have suggested in the journal Function that "silent hypoxemia" in COVID-19 cases could be caused by the carotid body being infected by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

This hypothesis, which has attracted the interest of the scientific community for its novelty and possible therapeutic significance, comes from experiments that have revealed a high presence of the enzyme ECA2, the protein the coronavirus uses to infect human cells, in the carotid body. In patients with COVID-19, the coronavirus circulates in the blood. Therefore, researchers suggest that infection of the human carotid body by SARS-CoV-2 in the early stages of the disease could alter its ability to detect blood oxygen levels, resulting in an inability to "notice" the drop in oxygen in the arteries. If this hypothesis, which is currently being tested in new experimental models, is confirmed, this would justify the use of activators of the carotid body independent of the oxygen sensing mechanism as respiratory stimulants in patients with COVID-19.

Javier Villadiego et al. Is Carotid Body Infection Responsible for Silent Hypoxemia in COVID-19 Patients?, Function (2020)
https://academic.oup.com/function/article/2/1/zqaa032/5998649
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10455 on: December 29, 2020, 04:36:41 PM »
The UK strain seems to have arrived in the Netherlands a while ago because the 10 to 12 cases include a cluster of 5 in a school ourbreak from november.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10456 on: December 29, 2020, 05:38:08 PM »
The UK strain seems to have arrived in the Netherlands a while ago because the 10 to 12 cases include a cluster of 5 in a school ourbreak from november.
When comparing both countries’ cases per million people, it seems that a similar third wave happened in the Netherlands slightly *earlier* than in the UK.
Difficult to know for sure, but the origin of the variant may not be the UK as hinted before.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2020, 05:45:30 PM by John Palmer. »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10457 on: December 29, 2020, 05:57:33 PM »
An Explanation for Low Blood Oxygenation Detected In Many COVID-19 Patients
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-explanation-lack-blood-oxygenation-covid-.html

One of the physiopathological characteristics of COVID-19 that has most baffled the scientific and medical community is what is known as "silent hypoxemia," or "happy hypoxia." Patients suffering this phenomenon, the causes of which are still unknown, have severe pneumonia with markedly decreased arterial blood oxygen levels (known as hypoxemia). However, they do not report dyspnea (subjective feeling of shortness of breath) or increased breathing rates, which are usually characteristic symptoms of people with hypoxemia from pneumonia or any other cause.

Patients with "silent hypoxemia" often suffer a sudden imbalance, reaching a critical state that can be fatal. Normally, individuals (healthy or sick) with hypoxemia report a feeling of shortness of breath and a higher breathing rate, thus increasing the body's uptake of oxygen. This reflex mechanism depends on the carotid bodies. These small organs, located on either side of the neck next to the carotid artery, detect the drop in blood oxygen and send signals to the brain to stimulate the respiratory centre.

A group of researchers from the Seville Institute of Biomedicine—IBiS/University Hospitals Virgen del Rocío y Macarena/CSIC/University of Seville—specialists in the physiopathological study of the carotid body, have suggested in the journal Function that "silent hypoxemia" in COVID-19 cases could be caused by the carotid body being infected by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

This hypothesis, which has attracted the interest of the scientific community for its novelty and possible therapeutic significance, comes from experiments that have revealed a high presence of the enzyme ECA2, the protein the coronavirus uses to infect human cells, in the carotid body. In patients with COVID-19, the coronavirus circulates in the blood. Therefore, researchers suggest that infection of the human carotid body by SARS-CoV-2 in the early stages of the disease could alter its ability to detect blood oxygen levels, resulting in an inability to "notice" the drop in oxygen in the arteries. If this hypothesis, which is currently being tested in new experimental models, is confirmed, this would justify the use of activators of the carotid body independent of the oxygen sensing mechanism as respiratory stimulants in patients with COVID-19.

Javier Villadiego et al. Is Carotid Body Infection Responsible for Silent Hypoxemia in COVID-19 Patients?, Function (2020)
https://academic.oup.com/function/article/2/1/zqaa032/5998649

To clarify:  the virus affects the nervous system. 

There's plenty of evidence of brain damage from this virus already.

The new variant is well beyond the infectivity of smallpox, if its 56% more infectious than the original virus. 
« Last Edit: December 29, 2020, 08:26:28 PM by harpy »

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10458 on: December 29, 2020, 08:46:32 PM »
We had a funny political event in Luxembourg. The law imposing the lockdown was signed in Biarritz.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10459 on: December 29, 2020, 09:00:20 PM »
... maybe they just  popped out for some take-away ...

... Biarritz, an elegant seaside town on southwestern France’s Basque coast, has been a popular resort since European royalty began visiting in the 1800s.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10460 on: December 29, 2020, 11:14:37 PM »
UK Hits New Record of Over 50,000 New Daily Infections
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/im-going-back-to-carnage-a-junior-doctor-on-working-under-covid

The UK has recorded 53,135 new daily infections, health data showed on Tuesday, as well as 414 deaths.

The daily increase in infections is a new record, and significantly higher than Monday’s 41,385 new new lab-confirmed cases, the previous record since the start of the pandemic and the first day new daily cases rose above 40,000.

2,322 new patients were admitted to hospital in the past 24 hours.

The UK’s total official death toll now stands at 71,567.

Dr Susan Hopkins, senior medical adviser for Public Health England, said the “unprecedented levels” of Covid-19 infection across the UK was of “extreme concern”.

“Whilst the number of cases reported today include some from over the festive period, these figures are largely a reflection of a real increase,” she said.

... Pressure has been mounting on ministers to expand tier 4 restrictions in the face of increasing strain on hospitals in England, where the number of patients has surpassed the April peak of the first wave.

--------------------------------------


Ambulances queued outside the Royal London Hospital, in London. NHS England figures show England’s hospitals now have more Covid-19 patients than during April’s first-wave peak.

Almost all these ambulances are waiting With patients inside them For more than 3 hours Because there's no place in hospital to bring them in...


https://twitter.com/drpunith/status/1344011914683232256

A statement released by the Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust, which runs the hospital, urged people to only contact ambulance services in the case of real emergencies.

“Along with the rest of the NHS, we are under considerable pressure as we look after a rising number of Covid-19 patients, some of whom are being cared for safely in ambulances before entering Queen’s Hospital,” it said.

You can help us by calling NHS 111 if you need medical advice, and only coming to our emergency departments in a real emergency.”

Multiple ambulances were also seen lining the streets near to the Royal London Hospital in Whitechapel, east London, as the Barts Health NHS Trust announced it had moved into a “very high pressure” phase.

---------------------------------------

Chile said on Tuesday it had recorded its first case of the British variant of coronavirus, prompting health authorities to reinstate a mandatory quarantine period for all visitors entering the South American nation from abroad.

The Chilean undersecretary of health, Paula Daza, said a Chilean woman who returned to her home country on 22 December after having travelled to London had tested positive for the variant.

Once in Chile, she boarded another plane to the south-central city of Temuco. Her movements prompted a scramble among health authorities in Chile to track down those she may have contacted during her journey, Reuters reports.

---------------------------------------

A senior US public health official said on Tuesday the coronavirus testing the United States now is requiring for travellers from Britain should probably be extended to other countries as well.

“I think that probably should be extended to other countries,” US assistant secretary for health Brett Giroir told MSNBC.

----------------------------------------------

Nigeria faces oxygen supply challenges to treat coronavirus patients in parts of the country and unacceptable laboratory delays as case numbers rose to the highest recorded in a single week, health authorities said.

The warnings from officials come as the resurgent virus strikes across much of the world, bringing greater case loads and hospitalisations.

“There is an on-going review of the chain for the supply of medical oxygen for our medical facilities across the nation,” said Boss Mustapha, chairman of Nigeria’s coronavirus task force, naming the capital of Abuja as an area of concern.

Labs’ “inability to function optimally has resulted in unacceptable levels of delay in receiving results,” he added, calling on Nigeria’s state governments to reopen all laboratories, ensure prompt testing and keep open treatment centres.

“This is not helping our national response.”

---------------------------------------------

Roel Coutinho, a respected former director of the Center for Infectious Disease Control at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, has called the Netherlands’ coronavirus vaccination strategy “embarrassing,” as the country waits until 8 January to begin administering shots, while other countries in Europe and elsewhere have started vaccinations.

The first batch of vaccines made by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech have already arrived in the Netherlands but will not be administered until 8 January.

The government has said it is still involved in preparations, including getting IT systems ready to register all the vaccinations and training staff, the Associated Press reports.

---------------------------------------------

Spain to Log Names of People Refusing Vaccine

Spain has said it will log the names of those who refuse to be vaccinated against Covid-19, creating a database that could be shared with countries across Europe.

--------------------------------------------

U.S. Likely to Fall Short of Goal to Vaccinate 20 Million People Against Covid Before End of Year
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/29/us-to-fall-short-of-goal-to-vaccinate-20-million-by-years-end.html

With only a few days left before the new year, the United States will likely fall short of its goal to vaccinate 20 million Americans by the end of 2020.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said just over 11.4 million doses had been distributed but only about 2.1 million had been administered as of Tuesday.

The CDC cited data reporting lags and the pending launch of the federal government's partnership with pharmacy chains as reasons for the gap between delivered and administered doses.

... The slower-than-expected initial rollout is even more concerning this early on because "this was supposed to be the easy part," Wen said.

---------------------------------------------

US president-elect Joe Biden criticized the Trump administration Tuesday for the pace of distributing COVID-19 vaccines, saying it is “falling far behind.”

Biden said “it’s gonna take years, not months, to vaccinate the American people” at the current pace.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 12:43:14 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10461 on: December 29, 2020, 11:25:20 PM »
The new variant now also in the US.
Announced by the Governor of Colorado on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GovofCO/status/1344031800230780933

Lots of covidiots commenting....

Update: "found in a man in his 20s who is in isolation southeast of Denver and has no travel history"
« Last Edit: December 29, 2020, 11:54:50 PM by pietkuip »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10462 on: December 30, 2020, 01:13:16 AM »
The Coronavirus Pandemic is Killing People With Diabetes or Alzheimer's Who Didn't Even Contract the Virus
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-coronavirus-pandemic-people-diabetes-alzheimer.html

... People with diabetes or Alzheimer's disease are particularly vulnerable.

An Inquirer analysis of federal data found that from mid-March through November, Pennsylvania had 753 more deaths attributed to Alzheimer's and diabetes than would be expected based on the last four years, a 14% increase for each cause. In New Jersey, there were 634 more deaths than expected for the two causes, an increase of 11% for Alzheimer's and 33% for diabetes.

The same trends occurred across the country, according to the Inquirer analysis, which aligns with other studies this year of "excess deaths"—the gap between actual and expected deaths. The biggest deviation from the norm for Alzheimer's and diabetes was in April, but every month had excess deaths attributed to these causes.

Barbara Simon, an endocrinologist at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, sees "multiple layers and multiple factors" related to the pandemic eroding the health and welfare of her diabetes patients.

"From my experience, the No. 1 issue is economic stress," she said. "Many are out of work and not able to afford their already expensive medicines."

"Studies have shown that prior to the COVID pandemic, up to 25% of insulin-dependent diabetics rationed supplies to save money," area physician Jennifer N. Goldstein wrote in September in The Inquirer. "The dramatic rise in unemployment and the loss of employer-sponsored health insurance due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to bring this crisis to a breaking point. This is particularly true in Pennsylvania, where unemployment rates hover around 13%, and almost 700,000 residents are uninsured."

As the U.S. Postal Service has struggled with pandemic-related turmoil—including historic volumes of mail and funding gaps—lost and late mail has been an issue for people ordering diabetes medication or blood sugar test strips. In June, when Cherry Hill resident Gerald Katz went to his local post office to ask what happened to his box of strips, he was told, "Well, we can't find out."

At the same time, the civil unrest and vandalism that led some Philadelphia pharmacies to shut down for weeks in the spring left many patients struggling to get their medications, said Simon at Jefferson.

Walke, at Penn, said COVID-19 cases among frail dementia patients who live in the community are probably still being underdiagnosed. These patients may find it difficult to access testing, or may not be strong enough to wait in line.

Another possible factor behind the excess deaths: some Alzheimer's patients could not withstand the social isolation and changes in their routines that were meant to protect them from the virus.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-pandemic-disruption-alzheimers-disease-diabetes-deaths-20201222.html
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10463 on: December 30, 2020, 01:17:37 AM »
« Reply #10459 on: Today at 07:13:16 PM »
That is the kind of thing I meant by "indirectly" in my poll.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10464 on: December 30, 2020, 01:19:51 AM »


----------------------------------------

A year ago, ophthalmologist Li Wenliang, who worked at the Wuhan Central Hospital, was the first to share information about a SARS-type lung infection with colleagues in Wuhan, Central China on December 30, 2019.

He distributed the news on the social media platform WeChat to colleagues at different hospitals in the city. Police then admonished him for "making false comments on the internet" but an official inquiry later exonerated him.

Li Wenliang died a month later from COVID-19 on February 2, 2020.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,681.msg245978.html#msg245978

China Investigates SARS-like Virus as Dozens Struck by Pneumonia
https://dw.com/en/china-investigates-sars-like-virus-as-dozens-struck-by-pneumonia/a-51843861

Dec. 31, 2019: Chinese health authorities on Tuesday said they are investigating 27 cases of viral pneumonia in central Hubei province, amid online speculation that it could be linked to the SARS flu-like virus that killed hundreds of people a decade ago.

Wuhan health officials issued an emergency notification on Monday after local hospitals treated a "successive series of patients with unexplained pneumonia."

Of the 27 reported cases, seven are in a critical condition and 18 are stable, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said on Tuesday on its Weibo social media account. ...

China Confirms More Cases of Mystery Viral Pneumonia
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-china-cases-mystery-viral-pneumonia.html

China on Friday confirmed more cases of a mystery viral pneumonia that has sparked fears about a resurgence of SARS, the flu-like virus that killed hundreds of people more than a decade ago.

The 44 cases, up from the initial 27 announced Tuesday, include 11 "severe cases," health authorities in the central Chinese city of Wuhan said in a statement.

The authorities are still in the process of identifying the cause of the infection, but "influenza, avian influenza, adenovirus infection and other common respiratory diseases have been excluded," the Wuhan health commission said on Friday, without mentioning SARS, which is caused by a coronavirus.

Now, a year later, there are over 82 million cases and nearly 1.8 million deaths worldwide. The US has 20 million cases and nearly 350,000 deaths. 
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10465 on: December 30, 2020, 01:36:37 AM »
FWIW, the vaccine may not totally prevent the transmission of the virus but it does appear to dramatically reduce COVID-19 disease.  This is just a guess, but I would think that means that having the vaccine reduces the ability of the virus to replicate and hence reduces viral load.  You would have to guess that would reduce the transmissibility of a vaccinated but infected person. All of this should reduce R0 which could conceivably drive the R0 below the level that makes it self-sustaining.

This will not eradicate the virus as quickly as if it stopped all transmission, but a situation where vaccinated individuals do not, or very rarely, get any symptoms, and are less likely to transmit asymptomatically, is a clear improvement.


Thank you dnem, we don't live in a perfect world  ;). But what does it mean FWIW?

Vaccination may not be enough to stop a 4th wave. If vaccines aren't used to drive infections to zero before relaxing restrictions, there could be a 4th wave when the restrictions are lifted.

e.g. Over 85% coverage of a 100% effective vaccine might be needed for herd immunity from vaccination in the UK, if its actually 90% coverage by a vaccine that stops 75% of transmission, there'll be a 4th wave.


sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10466 on: December 30, 2020, 01:51:54 AM »

-------------------------------------------

Spain to Log Names of People Refusing Vaccine

Spain has said it will log the names of those who refuse to be vaccinated against Covid-19, creating a database that could be shared with countries across Europe.

-------------------------------------------

I am sorry, would you please link the source of the above? That sounds bizarre and I have not read it elsewhere. France and Spain are in favor of a vaccination or antibody+ passport to avoid quarantines for travelers, which is a positive measure, not to create a blacklist with personal data, which is a negative measure and... illegal?!!

Edit.I have just found the interview of the Health Secretary Illa explaining this, sorry Vox. The minister he’s an idiot bureaucrat who’s wrong more than half the time, sustained by very dark elements. If they plan to do that, sounds to me outright illegal and dangerous. Probably they’ll forget because they are more inept than malicious, or simply botch it. Or they are just trying to scare the population into getting vaccinated. Pathetic.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 02:11:27 AM by sailor »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10467 on: December 30, 2020, 03:15:10 AM »
sailor,

Spain is keeping a list of everyone who refuses a COVID-19 vaccine and will share it with other EU countries
https://www.businessinsider.com/spain-coronavirus-register-vaccine-refusals-share-with-eu-2020-12

The country's health minister, Salvador Illa, said that inoculation was voluntary but that authorities would keep a list of everyone who refused and share it with the European Union.

Illa told the TV channel La Sexta that the list would not be made public and "will be done with the utmost respect for data protection."

Here's a. Spanish version:

https://www.lasexta.com/programas/al-rojo-vivo/entrevistas/illa-confirma-que-se-citara-a-la-gente-para-vacunarse-y-se-hara-un-registro-de-las-personas-que-lo-rechacen_202012285fe9d9c2bc50ef000101275c.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10468 on: December 30, 2020, 04:06:01 AM »
Scientists Call for Full Lockdown In England as New Covid Cases Multiply
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/scientists-warn-tier-4-not-enough-to-control-covid-in-england



Scientists and health bodies are calling for tighter coronavirus restrictions in England as cases continue to rise and hospitals report mounting pressure.

Issuing a warning ahead of a government review of the tier system in England on Wednesday, the Independent Sage group of experts said that unless the whole country was immediately put under lockdown, there could be ‘tens of thousands’ of avoidable deaths.

NHS Providers, which represents members within NHS hospitals, mental health, community and ambulance services in England, also called for tier 4 restrictions to be further extended across the country.

Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London and a member of Independent Sage, said "things were as bad as they had ever been. “The frightening thing is that they are going to continue to get worse,” she said ... 

Quote
...  “Action is needed now to avoid the collapse of the NHS in a few weeks. It is that serious.”

The group warns that with the emergence of a new UK variant of the virus, which is estimated to be 56% more transmissible than previous variants, the situation has taken a turn for the worse and that the current tier system is not sufficient even in places where the new variant is rare.

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf

“The very rapid rise of cases in London, the south-east and east of England under restrictions that previously kept growth much slower, highlights the need for a radical rethink of how we deal with Covid-19 going forward,” the Independent Sage group wrote in an emergency statement, adding that cases were rising, albeit more slowly, across all English regions.

The group said cases in current tier 4 areas had risen four-fold since lockdown.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55480761

The deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, Saffron Cordery, said pressures on the NHS were rising at an unsustainable rate in some parts of the country.

... With ministers under pressure to take action to stem infections amid surging coronavirus cases, some locations in the Midlands and further north could be moved into tier 4.

Cordery added that while such rules will impact peoples’ livelihoods, wellbeing and the economy, the cost of not going further will be heavy.

Among the evidence to support their calls, the group point to an analysis of the spread of the new, highly transmissible coronavirus variant by experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, released this month, which warned that even if the whole of England were placed under tier 4 restrictions on Boxing Day until the end of January, the R value would not fall below 1.

Indeed, no single measure is likely to be sufficient to bring the pandemic back under control. Rather we need an integrated response that brings together all the instruments we have to deal with the infection.

The study, yet to be peer-reviewed, also warned that without a substantial vaccine roll-out and tighter regulations the death toll of 2020 could be surpassed within the first six months of 2021.

Independent Sage Five-Point Emergency Plan
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/28/covid-vaccine-uk-restrictions-independent-sage
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 04:19:05 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10469 on: December 30, 2020, 11:37:20 AM »
The group warns that with the emergence of a new UK variant of the virus, which is estimated to be 56% more transmissible than previous variants, the situation has taken a turn for the worse...

I guess this new(ish) strain of the virus is in the USA already?

And if it is scaring the bejazus out of the NHS in the UK what does this mean for the USA if the new strain takes hold there as it has done and is doing here in the UK?

ps: and everywhere else?

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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10470 on: December 30, 2020, 01:57:07 PM »
The group warns that with the emergence of a new UK variant of the virus, which is estimated to be 56% more transmissible than previous variants, the situation has taken a turn for the worse...

I guess this new(ish) strain of the virus is in the USA already?

And if it is scaring the bejazus out of the NHS in the UK what does this mean for the USA if the new strain takes hold there as it has done and is doing here in the UK?

ps: and everywhere else?
The US has found one instance of it, but since they do tiny amounts of sequencing it could be all over the place without them having noticed yet. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55479590

Scaring has got to the point of getting one dose in two people asap rather than two doses in one person on the Pfizer vaccine distribution.

Quote
As well as approval of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, the government announced the immunisation campaign will now shift to giving as many people as possible their first dose of vaccine with a second dose following within 12 weeks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671

2*0.85 beats 1*0.95 when its a race between infection and injection.

blu_ice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10471 on: December 30, 2020, 01:59:37 PM »
The new strain is probably all over the place by now. Or will be, because it's even more difficult to stop than the original Covid-19. Which was proven unstoppable.

R0 will be higher than before causing exponential growth. Especially so because it is mid-winter in the NH, prime time for infectious diseases. On the upside, vaccinating risk groups will decrease fatality.

It's starting to look like it's either vaccination or infection for most people.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10472 on: December 30, 2020, 02:11:53 PM »
I understand the new case had not traveled, so it was community spread. So we already lost that fight.
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10473 on: December 30, 2020, 02:43:44 PM »
Well, now that they're trialing multiple "vaccines" on the general public, there will be a large enough sample size to determine whether or not any of them are actually effective.

What could go wrong? ;D


pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10474 on: December 30, 2020, 03:28:56 PM »
https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/30/uk-coronavirus-strain-found-school-rotterdam-area-teacher-38-died

Quote
An outbreak of the B117 mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which initially emerged in the United Kingdom, was linked to a cluster of coronavirus infections at the Willibrordschool, a primary school north of Rotterdam. A 38-year-old teacher who died last Thursday was one of the people who tested positive for a coronavirus infection at the school, though it was not yet clear if she was infected with the B117 variant.

At this primary school, 40 people were positive, at least 5 with the new variant.

Also scary: the children that were positive were not asymptomatic. They were sick. Not needing hospitalization, but clearly sick, and likely much more contagious.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 03:45:22 PM by pietkuip »

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10475 on: December 30, 2020, 03:30:52 PM »
been posted before but



from

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

seems pretty supportive of one dose being pretty effective after ~12 days such that better to vaccinate as many people as possible with 1 dose rather than half the number with 2 doses. 

blu_ice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10476 on: December 30, 2020, 03:32:23 PM »
Well, now that they're trialing multiple "vaccines" on the general public, there will be a large enough sample size to determine whether or not any of them are actually effective.

What could go wrong? ;D
They are already approved, not in trial.

And yes, by the time I'm about to receive my dose probably hundreds of millions of people have already received their vaccinations.  That's why risk groups receive their shots first.

IMO the worst thing that can happen is that anti-vaxxer idiots refuse to get vaccinated in such numbers that herd immunity won't be reached and the virus will eventually mutate to a strain that the vaccination doesn't give protection. And the same circus just keeps on going.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10477 on: December 30, 2020, 03:41:31 PM »
Ah, so the new "enemy of the state" are anti-vaxxers.

What about the folks in "less developed" or "3rd world" countries ? 

If the western world is too incompetent to "vaccinate" their general public what about "vaccinating" the other 95% of the human population?

If only it was as simple as blaming the Anti-vaxxers in the Western World.



« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 03:47:03 PM by harpy »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10478 on: December 30, 2020, 04:33:44 PM »
Those are two different things. Refusing to get a vaccine when you can get it is different from not being able to get a vaccine (early) because you live in some poorer country.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10479 on: December 30, 2020, 04:44:58 PM »
Consider that we are not even entirely certain whether or not herd immunity is possible, and combine that with the lack of any legal liability for any consequences of this ongoing "vaccination" experiment...   

By definition, we also have absolutely no idea whether or not the "Vaccines" will cause long term damage.

What happens when, after 2 or 3 years, these test subjects start experiencing side effects?

Ah, but think of the shareholders. :-*
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 05:10:07 PM by harpy »

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10480 on: December 30, 2020, 05:15:15 PM »
That is extremely unlikely since vaccines are a bit of virus plus some delivery agents.

Of course the companies got of free for liability and yes that will safe shareholders some money. The companies still want their product to perform well.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10481 on: December 30, 2020, 07:32:58 PM »

Ah, but think of the shareholders. :-*

Harpy, there’s absolutely no conflict between the needs of healthcare systems and the populations they’re trying to protect and the shareholders of any company involved in the search for a mechanism to control this pandemic.

I’ve already posted higher up this thread that in my considerable experience of this industry, the companies both big and small, involved in this process will always put the safety of any intervention at the top of their list of priorities.

Why? You can start with the Hippocratic Oath - “first do no harm” - but you can add to that the absolute priority to avoid the financial as well as the social and medical implications of a major drug side effect disaster.

No medical treatment is associated with zero risk but what angers me about ill-informed anti-vaccers is their total failure to recognise that getting vaccinated is more about protecting others than reducing their own risk of infection. It’s totally selfish and potentially enormously damaging not to play your part in the process.

Our ability to bring this pandemic to heel right now is much more likely to fail because too many people refuse to participate that it will through profit-led decision making in the supply chain.

If you, like me, had lived through the more community-focused post war era you would have been able to benefit from seeing the change achieved the Salk polio vaccine. I had close friends, children, who spent months in iron lungs. The vaccine made them redundant. Let’s do the same for all those new ventilators. It’s ultimately down to you and me - I’ll be ready when my appointment for a jab comes around.


Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10482 on: December 30, 2020, 07:40:26 PM »
@crandles

I don't think it is as simple as just giving one dose. The duration of immunity is very important too. The strength of the immune response is also important, especially given the specificity of this vaccine.

@ASIF

Right now, the only thing I've seen proof of is that this vaccine infers protections against severe Covid. We do not know if they can pass it.

So worst-case scenario, the vaccinated can pass C19.

If that's the case, vaccines are very useful.

1. Vaccines keep medical workers safe.  If we think of medical workers as warriors, then this is the equivalent of equipping the army with highly effective armor. The tactical advantages are evident, the intangible advantages like morale, are epic.

2. The virus discriminates against age. So if we make the elderly virtually immune to Covid, then the disease reaches the IFR that Covid risk deniers claimed at the beginning of the pandemic. Hospitals will have to deal with a large influx of younger patients during peak C19 season, but the load will be highly diminished. Unvaccinated people will have a similar risk burden as smokers, one that increases exponentially age.

3. Vaccinated younger population can check off one probable cause of death from their list.  Unvaccinated people will have a similar risk burden as smokers, one that increases exponentially age.

 

So if the vaccines work only as a disease preventer, it solves our problem.


My suspicion is that the vaccines will do more than just prevent disease. I bet that in many cases, perhaps in a significant amount of cases, it will also prevent the spread of C19. If that's the case we can solve our problem and the anti-vaxxers problem simultaneously. No need to force vaccines on anyone, except health care workers.

Then be ready to be laughed at and made ridiculed because the danger never fully materialized.

This has the same victory rewards as climate change.  This is the way.
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be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10483 on: December 30, 2020, 07:57:28 PM »
a change of plan in the UK .. only one shot of the vaccine .. either type , from Monday .. with a wait of up to 12 weeks for the second helping . Goal .. lots more folk partly protected sooner . seems 50k a day testing positive has changed plans , combined with a global shortage of phials .. who would have guessed ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10484 on: December 30, 2020, 08:23:43 PM »

Ah, but think of the shareholders. :-*

Harpy, there’s absolutely no conflict between the needs of healthcare systems and the populations they’re trying to protect and the shareholders of any company involved in the search for a mechanism to control this pandemic.

I’ve already posted higher up this thread that in my considerable experience of this industry, the companies both big and small, involved in this process will always put the safety of any intervention at the top of their list of priorities.

Why? You can start with the Hippocratic Oath - “first do no harm” - but you can add to that the absolute priority to avoid the financial as well as the social and medical implications of a major drug side effect disaster.

No medical treatment is associated with zero risk but what angers me about ill-informed anti-vaccers is their total failure to recognise that getting vaccinated is more about protecting others than reducing their own risk of infection. It’s totally selfish and potentially enormously damaging not to play your part in the process.

Our ability to bring this pandemic to heel right now is much more likely to fail because too many people refuse to participate that it will through profit-led decision making in the supply chain.

If you, like me, had lived through the more community-focused post war era you would have been able to benefit from seeing the change achieved the Salk polio vaccine. I had close friends, children, who spent months in iron lungs. The vaccine made them redundant. Let’s do the same for all those new ventilators. It’s ultimately down to you and me - I’ll be ready when my appointment for a jab comes around.

Interestingly, I disagree with virtually every point you just made. 
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 08:35:02 PM by harpy »

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10485 on: December 30, 2020, 08:39:38 PM »
@crandles

I don't think it is as simple as just giving one dose. The duration of immunity is very important too. The strength of the immune response is also important, especially given the specificity of this vaccine.

@ASIF

Right now, the only thing I've seen proof of is that this vaccine infers protections against severe Covid. We do not know if they can pass it.

So worst-case scenario, the vaccinated can pass C19.


Yes duration of immunity is important too. I have no knowledge of whether second dose after 12 weeks has any different effects from second dose after 4 weeks. 


>only ... proof ... vaccine infers protections against severe Covid.

People on trials are tested regularly and the graph shows it protects against them testing positive. Data maybe suggest maybe even better against severe covid but there are so few of these, I think this is much less certain data could just be luck.

Vaccinated passing on covid:

AFAICS it may still be possible that vaccinated people can still catch covid and for a very brief period be able to pass it on before immune response kicks in and stops the virus and person from being tested as positive. I suspect we just don't know because this is difficult to rule out. Rather than asking whether it is possible to pass it on, I think a more relevant question is what is probability of vaccinated person passing on compared to an unvaccinated positive person. If the answer is like at worst 1% of that probability (I have no info to suggest this, it is just a wild guess and with just a brief period and at very low viral load, I hope it would be less than this) then maybe at worst we need 76% of population vaccinated rather than 75%.

(but I am not an expert and could easily be misunderstanding the issue)
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 08:49:40 PM by crandles »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10486 on: December 30, 2020, 10:09:43 PM »
Mary Ann from ‘Gilligan’s Island’ Dies in LA from COVID-19
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/30/entertainment/dawn-wells-obit/index.html

Bummer  :'(
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pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10487 on: December 30, 2020, 10:52:26 PM »
The new variant also in California:

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1344397421023961090

"No history of travel."

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10488 on: December 30, 2020, 10:56:58 PM »
The new Covid strain that reached Ireland from the United Kingdom is spreading faster than the country’s worst-case forecasts, the country’s prime minister Micheal Martin has said.

“While international research for this new variant is ongoing, it is already very clear that we are dealing with a strain of the disease that spreads much, much more quickly,” Martin said in a televised address announcing a tightening of public-health restrictions and ordered the closure of non-essential retail for the next four weeks.

“It is spreading at a rate that has surpassed the most pessimistic models available to us.”

Martin said the surge appeared to be different from earlier waves, with a shorter delay being seen between increases in infections and increases in hospitalisations.

Health officials said earlier the number of COVID-19 cases in hospital has almost doubled in the past week and case numbers were poised to double every 7-10 days unless additional measures are taken.

https://amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-ireland-warns-new-variant-surpasses-the-most-pessimistic-models/a-56089936

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL8N2JA369

------------------------------------------

Colorado Officials Suspect They've Found a Second Case of UK Coronavirus Variant
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/30/health/colorado-uk-coronavirus-variant/index.html

Health officials in a Colorado county believe they've found a second local case of a coronavirus variant from the United Kingdom -- one that experts have said may be especially contagious -- a county public health director said Wednesday.

Both the confirmed case and the suspected instance involve men who had been working at the Good Samaritan Society assisted living facility in Simla, about 45 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, county health director Dwayne Smith told CNN.

The first patient had no known travel history, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis said Tuesday. In part because of that, there is a good chance the variant has been spreading within the community, William Haseltine, chair and president of the global health think tank ACCESS Health International, told CNN Wednesday.

The "two individuals were working at the facility in non-clinical roles," and "were working at the facility due to staffing shortages from a prior Covid-19 outbreak at the facility, so they were not regular staff," Smith said. "The state health department has deployed a rapid response team to the assisted living facility in Simla to test residents and staff."

At a Wednesday press conference, Dr Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist for Colorado’s health department, said both the confirmed and possible cases were Colorado national guard personnel who were supporting staffing at a care home in Elbert county.

The Good Samaritan Society had a Covid-19 outbreak in the past two and a half weeks, and at least two people -- a 93-year-old man and an 88-year-old woman -- died, Smith said. A third death is being investigated, he said. The facility is home to about 25 residents.

On Tuesday, the US recorded more than 3,700 new deaths linked to the virus, a chilling new high. The US also reported the most Covid-19 hospitalizations, with more than 124,600 patients nationwide, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1344072917269630976
« Last Edit: December 31, 2020, 12:06:21 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10489 on: December 30, 2020, 11:13:07 PM »

Ah, but think of the shareholders. :-*

Harpy, there’s absolutely no conflict between the needs of healthcare systems and the populations they’re trying to protect and the shareholders of any company involved in the search for a mechanism to control this pandemic.

I’ve already posted higher up this thread that in my considerable experience of this industry, the companies both big and small, involved in this process will always put the safety of any intervention at the top of their list of priorities.

Why? You can start with the Hippocratic Oath - “first do no harm” - but you can add to that the absolute priority to avoid the financial as well as the social and medical implications of a major drug side effect disaster.

No medical treatment is associated with zero risk but what angers me about ill-informed anti-vaccers is their total failure to recognise that getting vaccinated is more about protecting others than reducing their own risk of infection. It’s totally selfish and potentially enormously damaging not to play your part in the process.

Our ability to bring this pandemic to heel right now is much more likely to fail because too many people refuse to participate that it will through profit-led decision making in the supply chain.

If you, like me, had lived through the more community-focused post war era you would have been able to benefit from seeing the change achieved the Salk polio vaccine. I had close friends, children, who spent months in iron lungs. The vaccine made them redundant. Let’s do the same for all those new ventilators. It’s ultimately down to you and me - I’ll be ready when my appointment for a jab comes around.
While I have faith that the vaccines will get us out of this mess, mostly, I do not share your trust on the ‘safety first’ culture of Pharma industry. Same as with aeronautical companies, I might have believed that in the 70-80’s. But a culture of greed, fast-and-furious business mentality and corner-cutting practices as necessary is now prevalent across the greed-driven billionaire Boards and multimillionaire directors of so many of these companies. Just do some reading about the recent Boeing 737max disaster; one can sadly imagine the “average” Pharma CEO leading as greedily as Muilenburg and McNerney led Boeing with a ‘profits first, engineering second’ cost-cutting philosophy. Not saying it is the norm but...

...Boeing was a company with a decades-long excellent safety record. Not anymore, and yet...

...these criminals are living happily thereafter...
« Last Edit: December 30, 2020, 11:23:05 PM by John Palmer. »

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10490 on: December 31, 2020, 12:41:30 AM »
John

I too have been very surprised by the whole Boeing 737 Max tragedy, not least because of the fact that the design seems to have been flawed from the start.

With respect to the relative importance of safety to decision making in the Pharma industry we can, I hope, agree to differ though I can say with certainty that my own conscience is clear in that respect.

I do worry that the doubts you and Harpy have are widespread and if that results in poor uptake of vaccines it will become more difficult to get this genie back in the bottle.

Would it help if the whole industry were to follow AZ’s lead and supply on a not for profit basis at this stage?


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10491 on: December 31, 2020, 03:09:13 AM »
Florida's First-Come, First-Serve Covid-19 Vaccination Plan for the Elderly Leads to Scramble
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/30/us/florida-coronavirus-vaccine-line/index.html

Florida's county-by-county plan to vaccinate its elderly population has created a mass scramble for a limited number of doses, leading to hourslong lines at vaccination sites and overwhelmed county hotlines and websites.

In southwest Florida, the Lee County Department of Health encouraged anyone 65 and older and high-risk frontline health care workers to come to one of seven vaccination sites. Each site had just 300 vaccine doses, and "no appointment is necessary," the county said. (... 285,000 people - 37% of the county population are over 60yrs old)

http://lee.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/12/2020-12-27-covid-19-vaccine-for-ages-65-and-older.html



The first-come, first-serve plan led to huge lines forming overnight Tuesday as people camped out on lawn chairs and waited for hours.

Bruce Scott told CNN he arrived at a Ft. Myers vaccination site at 1:30 a.m. and waited in a line for about 8 or 9 hours to get vaccinated.

"Although I'm grateful to get the vaccine, I feel that there's got to be a better way to distribute this," he said afterward. "For people that really need it, elderly that might be disabled in some way, they can't endure this process, so there's got to be a better way to manage this."

... The issue is partly a consequence of the lack of consistent federal guidance in administering vaccines, as President Donald Trump deferred that decision-making to the states. In turn, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis broke with recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to focus first on vaccinating the elderly rather than essential workers, and he has encouraged each county health department to make its own decisions on administering the vaccines.

... In Palm Beach County, the department of health directed people 65 and older to call an appointment hotline to get their vaccine. But the hotline can only handle 150 calls at a time and was being overwhelmed, the county said.

"We are working on expanding our infrastructure to handle the high demand we are experiencing," the site said.

And in South Florida, Broward Health said all of its appointments are booked until February.

... Gov. DeSantis, who has repeatedly downplayed the severity of Covid-19 for young people, said he did not agree with the CDC recommendations to vaccinate essential workers.

"If you're a 22-year-old working in food services, let's say at a supermarket, you would have preference over a 74-year-old grandmother," he said. "I don't think that that is the direction that we want to go."

-----------------------------------------------------

Trump Blames States as He Faces Criticism for Slow Covid Vaccine Rollout
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/30/trump-blames-states-as-he-faces-criticism-for-slow-covid-vaccine-rollout.html

President Donald Trump tried on Wednesday to deflect criticism for a slower-than-expected rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine, saying the U.S. has distributed the lifesaving shots but states have to administer them.

As of Monday morning, just about 2.1 million shots have been given to people, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's a far cry from U.S. health officials' original goal of injecting at least 20 million Americans with their first shots before the end of the year.

"The Federal Government has distributed the vaccines to the states," the president said in a tweet. "Now it is up to the states to administer. Get moving!"

... Former Food and Drug Administration official, Dr. Luciana Borio, a coronavirus advisor for Biden, said the incoming administration will have to "dramatically ramp up" support to states to help with vaccine administration.

"I get the idea of having states having some autonomy over vaccination, but that doesn't mean that we're just going to drop a bunch of vaccines at their sites and let them deal with it."

"Providing the states with some autonomy of how to best use the vaccines within their immediate needs does not mean you leave them without meaningful support and logistics support to be able to actually carry out the implementation of vaccinations to the American people, and that's what has happened," she said.

"All the efforts to produce safe and effective vaccines in record time will be for naught if we do not speed up the process to get vaccines into people's arms."

Trump tweeted while taking his 306th golf outing at his Mar-a-Lago golf resort on taxpayers expense.

« Last Edit: December 31, 2020, 03:27:25 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10492 on: December 31, 2020, 05:38:37 AM »
@crandles

I don't think it is as simple as just giving one dose. The duration of immunity is very important too. The strength of the immune response is also important, especially given the specificity of this vaccine.

@ASIF

Right now, the only thing I've seen proof of is that this vaccine infers protections against severe Covid. We do not know if they can pass it.

So worst-case scenario, the vaccinated can pass C19.


Yes duration of immunity is important too. I have no knowledge of whether second dose after 12 weeks has any different effects from second dose after 4 weeks. 


>only ... proof ... vaccine infers protections against severe Covid.

People on trials are tested regularly and the graph shows it protects against them testing positive. Data maybe suggest maybe even better against severe covid but there are so few of these, I think this is much less certain data could just be luck.

Vaccinated passing on covid:

AFAICS it may still be possible that vaccinated people can still catch covid and for a very brief period be able to pass it on before immune response kicks in and stops the virus and person from being tested as positive. I suspect we just don't know because this is difficult to rule out. Rather than asking whether it is possible to pass it on, I think a more relevant question is what is probability of vaccinated person passing on compared to an unvaccinated positive person. If the answer is like at worst 1% of that probability (I have no info to suggest this, it is just a wild guess and with just a brief period and at very low viral load, I hope it would be less than this) then maybe at worst we need 76% of population vaccinated rather than 75%.

(but I am not an expert and could easily be misunderstanding the issue)

The A-Z vaccine probably is better for the longer wait between doses as well as 2 people partially protected being a better option in the face of it taking time to manufacture. Its Phase III trials were pretty messy, so it isn't that clear, but the half dose/full dose effect now looks like it was probably due to a long wait between doses rather than the size of them. Its discussed on last night's newscast.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p092rfc5

Endpoints are different in the different trials. Yes its a positive test, but the diagnostic criteria for doing the test, and hence the actual level of disease the quoted %age applies to, aren't necessarily the same between vaccines.

Half to one third is the sort of level that asymptomatic COVID transmission seems to happen at, so I'd put the prior at 20% not 1% and 20% is easily large enough to mess with herd immunity that is going to need 85% not 75% now B.1.1.7 is out there. It might be 1%, but 50% also can't be ruled out. High asymptomatic transmission for COVID, plus transmission observed in animal models of the vaccine, there are indications that transmission by protected individuals could be significant in COVID and no data to show anything either way in human trials yet.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10493 on: December 31, 2020, 07:07:43 AM »
John

I too have been very surprised by the whole Boeing 737 Max tragedy, not least because of the fact that the design seems to have been flawed from the start.

With respect to the relative importance of safety to decision making in the Pharma industry we can, I hope, agree to differ though I can say with certainty that my own conscience is clear in that respect.

I do worry that the doubts you and Harpy have are widespread and if that results in poor uptake of vaccines it will become more difficult to get this genie back in the bottle.

Would it help if the whole industry were to follow AZ’s lead and supply on a not for profit basis at this stage?

Grenfell Tower is another example of the tragic consequence of capture of regulators by industry, which is in the process of being exposed in detail by cross examination of the industry at the public inquiry. I'm not aware of Boeing being exposed in the same detail, but I see a lot of parallels in the way an industry manipulated the regulators into being allowed to sell a product that was virtually certain to kill a lot of people sooner or later. The Grenfell Tower Inquiry Podcast gives a weekly summary of the Inquiry if you are interested in the sordid detail of how industries capture regulators. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/series/p066rd9t (Its in recess at the moment due to COVID in the Inquiry team, but should resume in January)

Its probably too late for others to go non-profit. There are already consequences in the way the trials were conducted e.g. it was far more important to Pfizer and Moderna to get through regulation fastest with the highest headline figure from Phase III, and their trials were far more focussed on that than AZ's was. I don't think Pfizer etc. rigged their tests to make a bad product look good, in the same way that the regulators helped rig the testing of the cladding of Grenfell Tower, but I do think they were slanted as far as they reckoned the regulators would let them slant it to get the highest possible headline figure. Thats just normal commercial practice. The product has to be sold, and getting the highest possible headline figure past the regulator is part of selling it. Not for profit means the scientists get more influence over making the trials answer interesting questions. There's data from the AZ trial that the others just won't have collected because it would hurt their chances of being firstest with the mostest. Its not just differences in the vaccines that lead to Pfizer saying 95% and a whole bunch of numbers in the range of 62-90% being quoted for AZ, its the difference between a commercial drive and a non-profit one too.

Pfizer have recommended the one dose strategy for their vaccine to get as many partially protected as soon as possible, but they have a clear commercial reason for doing so. It locks in sales before the competition comes on stream. AZ don't have such a strong commercial reason for doing it, but because their Phase III trial was a lot messier, they do have data from it that says waiting three months may be better for the people getting the vaccine in the long term as well as for those that get the other dose in the short term. Pfizer had a clear incentive to go with the shortest possible interval between jabs in their trial, because that meant getting to the regulator faster.


El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10494 on: December 31, 2020, 09:29:16 AM »
For anti-vaxxers:

I don't know about your country but in my country infants get COMPULSORY multiple shots against a number of diseases. I can not fathom why adults would not get the vaccine. This is a classic case of freeriding for antivaxxers.
Every society has rules that you must adhere to and those rules were created so that we could all live a better life. If you drive a car after drinking half a liter of whiskey and go thru many red lights you will be arrested and put into jail - because you endanger everyone else. This is the same with the vaccine: if you don't get vaccinated you endanger everyone else.
Solution is simple: if you don't get vaccinated (have no "vaccine passport") then you don't get to fly, you can not go into any place where there are more than 10 people, etc. Your choice.

As for the "risk" of these vaccines: If for some weird reasons you don't trust the relatively new mRNA technology, you can choose from a variety of adenovirus vector vaccines (AstraZeneca or Sputnik V, etc) that have been around for much longer.


TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10495 on: December 31, 2020, 01:55:23 PM »
12-31-20 [Preprint]
Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf
Quote
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, now designated Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC)... There is a consensus among all analyses that the VOC has a substantial transmission advantage, with the estimated difference in reproduction numbers between VOC and non-VOC ranging between 0.4 and 0.7, and the ratio of reproduction numbers varying between 1.4 and 1.8. genetic diversity of this lineage has changed in a manner consistent with exponential growth... VOC has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages... data indicate a shift in the age composition of reported cases, with a larger share of under 20 year olds among reported VOC than non-VOC cases... increased susceptibility of under 20s, or more apparent symptoms (and thus a propensity to seek testing) for the VOC in that age range.

Quote
Figure 4. Age distribution of S-gene negative (S-) and S-gene positive (S+) PCR-positive pillar 2 cases from the SGSS dataset (not adjusted for TPR). Case numbers are weighted to compare Scases from each NHS STP region and epidemiological week with an equal number of S+ cases from that STP and week (a case-control design), and standardised for differences in the age composition of each STP area. (A) Age distribution of S- and S+ cases. (B) Ratio of S- to S+ proportions of cases in each 10 year band. Results shown are for weeks 46-51. Ages were capped at 80. 95% empirical confidence intervals calculated by bootstrapping over STP areas and weeks, and sampling variation within STP areas and weeks.

blu_ice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10496 on: December 31, 2020, 01:57:21 PM »
For anti-vaxxers:

I don't know about your country but in my country infants get COMPULSORY multiple shots against a number of diseases. I can not fathom why adults would not get the vaccine. This is a classic case of freeriding for antivaxxers.
Every society has rules that you must adhere to and those rules were created so that we could all live a better life. If you drive a car after drinking half a liter of whiskey and go thru many red lights you will be arrested and put into jail - because you endanger everyone else. This is the same with the vaccine: if you don't get vaccinated you endanger everyone else.
Solution is simple: if you don't get vaccinated (have no "vaccine passport") then you don't get to fly, you can not go into any place where there are more than 10 people, etc. Your choice.

As for the "risk" of these vaccines: If for some weird reasons you don't trust the relatively new mRNA technology, you can choose from a variety of adenovirus vector vaccines (AstraZeneca or Sputnik V, etc) that have been around for much longer.
Excellent post El Cid.

Anti-vaxxing is all about me, myself and I.  Nobody will vaccinate me because I don't like big pharma corporations. I know medicine better than the experts and professionals. I care about my possible side-effects more than herd immunity protecting everybody. Me, me, ME!

Fortunately small pox was eradicated before social media influencers and internet conspiracy theorists came into being.

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10497 on: December 31, 2020, 02:31:37 PM »
@silkman thanks I didn’t know that about AZ vaccine. I want to believe COVID vaccines are safe but there’s certain “reasonable” suspicion, and the feeling some CEOs project is not very reassuring. Another eg. Elon Musk and his “autopilot” AI still learning on (fatal) mistakes. Not much press on that though, Elon is good with PR, with keeping that army of fans in the name of science, and with NDAs...

For the record, I plan to get vaccinated.

@El Cid I may be able to choose, eventually, bc I am privileged enough to have good med insurance. Not sure if that’s the case for many in the US or for public healthcare in Europe. Is it?

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10498 on: December 31, 2020, 03:08:13 PM »
I care about my possible side-effects more than herd immunity protecting everybody. Me, me, ME!

It may feel like that but perhaps further examination is in order.

To me, it is clear that the herd immunity benefits clearly outweigh the very low possibility side effects.

To get essentially all of the advantages and none of the disadvantages it is best if everyone else gets vaccinated but I don't.

This is clearly putting yourself in a privileged position, why should anyone deserve such a privileged position? If you think you should have the right not to have it, and exercise that right, why shouldn't everyone else make that same decision? That makes everyone worse off.

To solve this particular tragedy of the commons is fairly easy: People should consider the welfare of everyone not just themselves. It should be considered a moral responsibility to take the vaccine unless there is good reason not to (either in their particular case or sound grounds for believing it is bad for everyone). Perhaps consider it an implied social contract of everyone agreeing 'I'll take it if others will'.

Antivaxxers trying to conjure up good reason where none exists deserve to be vilified.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10499 on: December 31, 2020, 03:21:21 PM »
It should be considered a moral responsibility to take the vaccine unless there is good reason not to (either in their particular case or sound grounds for believing it is bad for everyone). 

It is not clear at all yet whether vaccinated people can be contagious or not.

So far, the only thing that was established is that the vaccine protects against symptoms, severe disease, and death.

All these high-up people now getting the vaccine are doing that for selfish reasons.