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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 591477 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10550 on: January 03, 2021, 04:50:39 PM »
California: San Diego County Reports Over 4.4K New Covid-19 Cases, UK Variant Spreading In the Community

San Diego County public health officials have reported 4,427 new cases of COVID-19 and no new deaths.

ICU capacity remained at 18% (counting neonatal, pediatric, and burn units) with 24 new admissions at county hospitals, bringing the total number of current COVID-19 patients to 1,566 with 380 in the ICU.

... The total number of cases of the new variant, known as B.1.1.7, is four so far in San Diego County. The variant was first found in the U.S. on Tuesday in Colorado. The first San Diego case involves a man in his 30s with no history of travel, who first became symptomatic Dec. 27 and tested positive Dec. 29. He has been hospitalized and contact tracing is underway.

The additional three cases, reported by county health officials Thursday, were found in two men in their 40s and one in his 50s. Contact tracing shows two men did not travel outside of the county while the third case has yet to be fully interviewed. None of the men had any known interaction with each other or the other confirmed case.

The three newly-confirmed variant cases were initially identified by Helix during diagnostic testing, then confirmed by whole genome sequencing by Scripps Research. The four individuals who have tested positive for the B.1.1.7. strain live in La Mesa, Mission Beach, Otay Mesa and the Carmel Mountain/Rancho Bernardo area.

Officials now believe that the new strain is widespread in the community.


-----------------------------------------

Coronavirus Outbreak at Kaiser San Jose Hospital Emergency Dept Infects 43 Staff
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-02/coronavirus-outbreak-at-kaiser-san-jose-hospital-infects-43-people?_amp=true

-------------------------------------

TN Health Commissioner: Post-Christmas Surge Could 'Completely Break' Tennessee Hospitals
https://www.wbir.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/tn-health-commissioner-post-christmas-surge-could-completely-break-tennessee-hospitals/51-7fcc58f5-a30e-4478-879a-f2c83dcd9de0

https://www.wbir.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/er-nurses-fear-january-covid-19-patient-surge/51-6b98d31a-5048-4f1c-a50b-b56bc8cc7bc5

https://mobile.twitter.com/TNDeptofHealth/status/1345461464384077825

3,198 hospitalizations; percent positive is 21.66%

... "It's sad to see the fear in the eyes of a mother who has kids at home and is scared she won't be able to take care of her kids," Helton said. "Or a dad who is scared he’s going to leave his kids behind. This virus changes peoples lives."

The two emergency room nurses said the number of people getting sick is nearing a breaking point — and state leaders said it is not just at their hospital.

"Come back and look with me, I have no beds. I have no where to put you," Rasnic said, adding that patients were backing up into the ER lobby as they awaited medical care. 

... "We are running out of options" to bolster staff, Dr. Lisa Piercey, Tennessee Health Commissioner said.

A quarter of patients in Tennessee hospital beds are COVID-19 positive.

Forty percent of all ICU beds in the state are filled with COVID-19 patients.

"Knoxville hospitals are nearing capacity," Piercey warned.

Piercey said this strain on hospitals reduces the available capacity for non-COVID-19 patients, such as those in car wrecks or cardiac arrest.

TDH said it has received requests from two hospital systems in West Tennessee for emergency ventilator supplies.

At five other hospitals, including Blount Memorial in Maryville, it approved plans to lift regulations to allow staff to work in parts of the facility they would otherwise not be allowed to work in an effort to alleviate staffing concerns.

Piercey said there are no plans to open field hospitals or alternative care sites because there is no staff available to work them.

The state has now deployed the National Guard to work inside two hospital systems in the state, one in Memphis, the other in northeast Tennessee.

A FEMA team is also working in a hospital in northeast Tennessee.

... "That's terrifying for me as a nurse because what I'm already seeing—we're struggling. So to see those numbers continue to go up. That's a little terrifying. I won't lie."



Tennessee now has the highest COVID-19 infection rate in the country and is more than 40 percent above the national average, according to CDC data.

-------------------------------------------

UK Cases
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274





 
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10551 on: January 03, 2021, 05:07:51 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10552 on: January 03, 2021, 05:15:44 PM »
UK cases continuing to rise showing tier 4 restrictions are not enough, hospitals becoming overwhelmed if not already...

But Bojo saying send kids back to school tomorrow and "It may be that we need to do things in the next few weeks that will be tougher in many parts of the country. I'm fully, fully reconciled to that."

Next few weeks ???, the lack of urgency the situation deserves is surreal.

TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10553 on: January 03, 2021, 07:15:30 PM »
SARS-CoV-2 Escape in Vitro from a Highly Neutralizing COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.424451v1.full.pdf
Quote
Summary: Three mutations allowed SARS-CoV-2 to evade the polyclonal antibody response of a highly neutralizing COVID-19 convalescent plasma.
  In conclusion, we have shown that the authentic SARS-CoV-2 virus, if constantly pressured, has the ability to escape even a potent polyclonal serum targeting multiple neutralizing epitopes. These results are remarkable because while escape mutants can be easily isolated when viruses are incubated with single monoclonal antibodies, usually a combination of two mAbs is sufficient to eliminate the evolution of escape variants and because SARS-CoV-2 shows a very low estimated evolutionary rate of mutation as this virus encodes a proofreading exoribonuclease machinery.

  The recent isolation of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United Kingdom and South Africa with deletions in or near the NTD loops shows that what we describe here can occur in the human population. The ability of the virus to adapt to the host immune system was also observed in clinical settings where an immunocompromised COVID-19 patient, after 154 days of infection, presented different variants of the virus including the E484K substitution.

  Therefore, we should be prepared to deal with virus variants that may be selected by the immunity acquired from infection or vaccination.[/quote]

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10554 on: January 03, 2021, 07:52:58 PM »
SARS-CoV-2 Escape in Vitro from a Highly Neutralizing COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.424451v1.full.pdf
Quote
Summary: Three mutations allowed SARS-CoV-2 to evade the polyclonal antibody response of a highly neutralizing COVID-19 convalescent plasma.


This is quite concerning, though not surprising.  Covid may have an intrinsically low rate of mutation, but when there are a million people infected, each a prodigious virus factory, the opportunities for mutations are multiplied a million-fold.

I think we'll shortly be in need of multi-valent vaccines.  And monoclonal antibodies or immune plasma or antiviral medications may need to be tested against the unknown strain that a given patient presents with.

If so, we may collectively be in for a very long haul with this pathogen.

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10555 on: January 03, 2021, 09:58:23 PM »
My first jaded thought,  hmm biorxiv.org, sometimes a whole lot more chaff, dirt, bugs than wheat.   However I look at the lead author and voila

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rino_Rappuoli
Quote
Rino Rappuoli is Chief Scientist & head of external research and development (R&D) at GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Vaccines.[2] Previously, he has served as visiting scientist at Rockefeller University and Harvard Medical School and held roles at Sclavo, Vaccine Research and CSO, Chiron Corporation, and Novartis Vaccines.

A not very scientific hunch of mine is that he was not the lead investigator,   but that he was informed, read, reviewed and felt strongly enough to put his name out front.   It takes courage and determination to do that.   I will go back and read.   

morganism

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10556 on: January 03, 2021, 11:48:03 PM »
"These findings had led the researchers to conclude that daily smokers have a significantly lower probability of developing symptomatic or a severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, when compared to the general population.

The compiled data had indicated that the daily smokers’ rate amongst COVID-19 patients was at 5.3%, whilst within the general French population, the rate of daily smokers rate was of 25.4%.

Similarly, another review of the Chinese data published in the European Journal of Internal Medicine concluded that “active smoking does not apparently seem to be significantly associated with enhanced risk of progressing towards severe disease in COVID-19.”

Subsequently, similar patterns started emerging from around the world. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have shown that smokers represented just 1.3% of COVID-19 cases analyzed, while America’s adult smoking rate is at 13.7%."

https://www.vapingpost.com/2020/12/10/another-french-study-looks-into-the-use-of-nicotine-against-covid-19/

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10557 on: January 04, 2021, 02:01:03 AM »
California: San Diego County ... UK Variant Spreading In the Community
...

The three newly-confirmed variant cases were initially identified by Helix during diagnostic testing, then confirmed by whole genome sequencing by Scripps Research. The four individuals who have tested positive for the B.1.1.7. strain live in La Mesa, Mission Beach, Otay Mesa and the Carmel Mountain/Rancho Bernardo area.

Officials now believe that the new strain is widespread in the community.



I’m familiar with the SD area and those are very sparsely distributed locations from close to the Mexico border South of San Diego to many miles north of San Diego. Scripps labs confirm the UK variant is extended in the area and probably the entire SoCal which would explain the near-collapse of hospitals in LA. What is difficult to understand is why a top tier research site as Scripps can only find a handful of cases, while the UK is able to report which thousands of new cases correspond to “old” strains and which ones to the new variant daily

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10558 on: January 04, 2021, 02:35:53 AM »
They only sequenced 31 samples...

... Following the conservative approach from Bal et al 2020, for this analysis we only analyzed positive samples with strong amplification of the N gene (Ct < 25), and dropout samples with absolutely no S gene detected.  Because some samples may have lower viral titer, and therefore result in a weaker amplification signal, we are not analyzing all positive samples here. ...

SARS-CoV-2 UK variant (B.1.1.7) in the US: Four cases identified in Florida and California
https://blog.helix.com/sars-cov-2-uk-variant-b-1-1-7-in-the-us-four-cases-identified-in-florida-and-california/

With the support of the CDC, in partnership with Illumina, we have sequenced the viral genomes from a subset of our SARS-CoV-2-positive samples with S gene dropout. Of the initial 31 samples with high quality sequencing data, four match the B.1.1.7 strain (12.9%). Three of these samples were from infected individuals in California (CA), and one from Florida (FL). Together with recent reports from CA and Colorado (CO), this brings the number of states having confirmed B.1.1.7 strains to three.

... Our previous report showed relatively high rates of S gene dropout in viral samples collected from Massachusetts (MA), Ohio (OH), and FL. However, in our initial sequencing analysis, we find that these do not directly correlate with B.1.1.7 strain detection in the US. Of the samples with S gene dropout that were sequenced, only one of twelve in FL, and zero of seven in MA were B.1.1.7. We have not yet obtained viral sequences from samples in OH. 

The results of this analysis highlight that while S gene dropout may be a reliable predictor of B.1.1.7 in the UK and France, it is a less specific indicator in the US today, given the current viral landscape. Furthermore, while the B.1.1.7 strain is present in multiple US states, other strains that cause S gene dropout are more prevalent in the US. However, with the overall high incidence of viral transmission and the higher transmissibility (here and here) of this strain, the proportions of different strains in the US could readily change.

-----------------------------------------

... or you could give them a call at:
(844) 211 - 2070 | Monday–Friday from 7am–4pm Pacific and ask them
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10559 on: January 04, 2021, 02:45:29 AM »
Thank you Vox Mundi.

Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10560 on: January 04, 2021, 03:20:35 AM »
Covid-19: Russia admits to understating deaths by more than two thirds

BMJ 2020; 371 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m4975 (Published 31 December 2020)
Cite this as: BMJ 2020;371:m4975

Owen Dyer

Russia’s true death toll from the novel coronavirus pandemic is not about 57 000, as official figures claim, but more than 180 000, the country’s deputy prime minister, Tatiana Golikova, conceded at a press conference.

Russia’s claims of an extraordinarily low mortality have been widely dismissed as implausible for months by foreign observers and Russian doctors alike. Every other indicator, from packed hospitals with long lines of ambulances to mortality among health workers documented by their own associations, has painted a picture of a country hit hard by the pandemic, not one miraculously spared.

These suspicions were confirmed when the Rosstat statistics agency said on 28 December that the number of deaths from all causes recorded between January and November was 229 700 higher than in 2019. “More than 81% of this increase in mortality over this period is due to covid,” said Golikova. That would mean that more than 186 000 Russians have died from covid-19.

The figures mean Russia ranks third in the world in terms of deaths from covid-19, behind only the US and Brazil. It would also give Russia the fourth highest per capita death rate, about 1273 deaths per million population, behind only San Marino, Belgium, and Slovenia.

But the higher figures, which are estimated from numbers of excess deaths, may never find their way into official statistics of the pandemic. The director of Mexico’s National Centre for Preventive Programs and Disease Control made a similar announcement in October, telling a press conference that the country had undercounted deaths by more than 50 000. In that case the new estimate was based on individual review of death certificates—yet the extra deaths have never been added to Mexico’s official count.1

A wide discrepancy between Russian cities’ accurate counts of deaths from all causes and the official national covid-19 mortality figures has been evident since the beginning of the pandemic.2 The low official figure was generated by only reporting deaths in which novel coronavirus infection was identified on autopsy.

From the beginning the official numbers drew widespread scorn from Russian doctors, who on social media painted a far grimmer picture, often mourning deaths in their own ranks from lack of personal protective equipment. A privately maintained list of Russian medical staff who lost their lives fighting the pandemic now stands at over 1000 names.3

Three doctors who raised concerns about the country’s response mysteriously fell from windows in the early months of the pandemic.4 Anastasia Vasilyeva, the head of the doctors’ union Alyans Vrachei (Doctors’ Alliance), an opposition linked group that has criticised pandemic preparations, was arrested and beaten by police when she attempted to deliver PPE to a hospital near Novgorod.5

The deputy prime minister’s admission will embarrass President Vladimir Putin, who has favourably compared Russia’s response to those of other countries, on the basis of its supposed low death rate. Putin later appeared somewhat chastened, telling regional governors in one televised meeting in May that “we don’t have much to brag about.”

But the imminent prospect of mass immunisation with Russia’s Sputnik vaccine has recently seen Putin again touting his country’s response, even as he personally adopts a wary attitude to the virus. He has spent much of the past year secluded at his dacha outside Moscow, and visitors to the president must first walk through a specially constructed corridor in which they are sprayed from all sides with disinfectant.

This article is made freely available for use in accordance with BMJ's website terms and conditions for the duration of the covid-19 pandemic or until otherwise determined by BMJ. You may use, download and print the article for any lawful, non-commercial purpose (including text and data mining) provided that all copyright notices and trade marks are retained.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4975

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10561 on: January 04, 2021, 07:27:15 AM »
Putin...has spent much of the past year secluded at his dacha outside Moscow, and visitors to the president must first walk through a specially constructed corridor in which they are sprayed from all sides with disinfectant.

Not only that, but any visitors to him must spend two weeks in isolation (under surveillance) in the Crimea before meeting him! And of course he has not received the wonderful Sputnik V vaccine yet (but he says he will...eventually). He seems to trust good old quarantine better than their own vaccine...

zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10562 on: January 04, 2021, 10:01:46 AM »
Quote
It would also give Russia the fourth highest per capita death rate, about 1273 deaths per million population, behind only San Marino, Belgium, and Slovenia.

Here we have to keep in mind that the probable death toll in several other countries is also much higher than the official death numbers. For example, in Mexico an excess mortality of 254,625 deaths has been reported as of Dec 22, 2020:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-22/mexico-s-excess-deaths-pass-250-000-amid-covid-outbreak

If the same percentage as in Russia would be attributed to COVID deaths, the death rate would have been at 1,591 per million at that date. And there have been excess mortality reports in other countries / regions. I remember having read a source which said that in Manaus, Brazil, about 0.3% of the whole population died within several weeks in Spring.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10563 on: January 04, 2021, 10:08:54 AM »
Same in Hungary. Officially 10000 dead (population 9,7 million), but excess mortality has been 50% above reported numbers, so true mortality is likely 15000, ie. 0,15% population-wide mortality. Oh yeah, hospitals almost overflowed during the peak of the second wave (end Nov-beg.Dec)

Would you call that mass psychosis or is it a bit more serious than that?

(if the British mutant version spreads here widely then the above numbers will easily double by May)

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10564 on: January 04, 2021, 01:17:08 PM »
They only sequenced 31 samples...


Viruses sequenced 170,256!

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/

No surprise then that the mutant strain was first detected in the UK.





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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10565 on: January 04, 2021, 02:28:26 PM »
They only sequenced 31 samples...


Viruses sequenced 170,256!

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/

No surprise then that the mutant strain was first detected in the UK.

Right. And just learned, the PCR method used in the UK permits to identify this particular emerging variant even without having to perform a more detailed analysis.

Look at the level of granularity that they can achieve in monitoring the new strain propagation.

Meanwhile in the US we are still counting ballots in some districts... smh

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10566 on: January 04, 2021, 03:06:04 PM »

Here we have to keep in mind that the probable death toll in several other countries is also much higher than the official death numbers.

The death toll is higher in the U.S. as well. Even now Florida is undercounting.

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10567 on: January 04, 2021, 03:28:29 PM »
They only sequenced 31 samples...


Viruses sequenced 170,256!

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/

No surprise then that the mutant strain was first detected in the UK.

Right. And just learned, the PCR method used in the UK permits to identify this particular emerging variant even without having to perform a more detailed analysis.

Look at the level of granularity that they can achieve in monitoring the new strain propagation.

Meanwhile in the US we are still counting ballots in some districts... smh

The success of COG-UK’s consortium approach is a good example of the potential that an integrated National Health Service can offer, making it possible to bring the healthcare system, medical research charities and universities together with a common purpose.

It’s an enormous shame therefore that our current government has failed to recognise this strength in other areas where it could have made a difference. The fact that they chose, at great expense, to use private contractors to deliver a grossly sub-optimal Track and Trace system when Public Health England already had experienced resources with local knowledge in place is difficult to understand and has clearly contributed to many avoidable cases and lost lives.

Some you win.....

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10568 on: January 04, 2021, 03:58:07 PM »
UK projection:

https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2021/01/04/not-even-half-way-there/

Not even half-way there



Original R0 of 3 in James' model which might mean 40m with immunity from infection/vaccine plus 5m with innate immunity=~2/3pop for herd immunity.

But if new strain increased R under lockdown from 1 to 1.4 then new R0=~4.2?

So 3.2/4.2*68m-5m = ~47m infections/vaccines needed for HI?

Looks like UK is heading for something like 10m vaccines 37m infections?

Or would you calculate it somewhat differently?

James replied
Quote
The *current* R0 in the model is about 1.6 though (giving R_eff of about 1.3 due to some immunity), these calculations are assuming a continuation of our current restricted contact (albeit in reality this is varying in time and space...).

My guess is this current R0/R_eff is too low for the new variant *but* we are likely to increase restrictions, counteracting this a bit. Net effect could be anything...
« Last Edit: January 04, 2021, 04:28:53 PM by crandles »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10569 on: January 04, 2021, 06:10:01 PM »
For those who had too look it up (like me) smh = shaking my head.
Although in my case it is more like slapping my head!
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10570 on: January 04, 2021, 06:41:48 PM »
The virus does appear to be out pacing the efforts to "vaccinate" against it:

South African strain has many changes to its spike protiens.

Hmmmm, well at least the shareholders benefitted from this current façade.   :-*

https://news.trust.org/item/20210104140005-hnx99

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10571 on: January 04, 2021, 07:18:29 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The UK graphs seem to say the lockdown(s) now being announced needed to have been done some time ago, well before the emergence of the UK variant.

The nearest main hospital to me are saying that 40% of all their beds are now occupied by Covid-19 patients.

At leat 2-3 months more of this rotten time to get through.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10572 on: January 04, 2021, 09:13:41 PM »
COVID Vaccines "Might Not" Work as Well On South African Strain, Scientists Warn
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/04/south-african-coronavirus-variant-more-of-a-problem-than-uk-one.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/covid-vaccine-new-strain-south-africa/

A variant of the coronavirus identified in South Africa is more problematic than the strain found in the U.K., Britain's health minister has said, as both strains continue to spread rapidly.

Speaking to the BBC Monday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the variant found in South Africa was especially concerning.

[B["I'm incredibly worried about the South African variant[/b], and that's why we took the action that we did to restrict all flights from South Africa," he told the BBC's Today program.

"This is a very, very significant problem ... and it's even more of a problem than the U.K. new variant."

... Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University John Bell said on Sunday that the variant identified in South Africa was worrying in this regard:

"They both have multiple, different mutations in them, so they're not a single mutation," he told Times Radio. "And the mutations associated with the South African form are really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the (virus' spike) protein."

He said there were questions as to whether the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccines would be "disabled" in the presence of such mutations.

... The lead researcher on the trial of the Oxford vaccine carried out in South Africa, Professor Shabir Madhi, told CBS News on Monday that more than 13 variants of the coronavirus had been identified in the country since the start of the pandemic. He said the new one, 501.V2, which has spread like wildfire in South Africa's coastal cities, is the most worrying mutation of the virus so far.

"It's not a given that the vaccine will not work on this variant, but it is a consideration that the vaccine might not have the full efficacy," he said. 

... "Those on our trial received the second dose during the time of this new variant, which is extremely fortunate," Madhi said, adding that he expected the relevant trial results by the fourth week of January.

---------------------------------------------

South African Covid Variant Reported In Southern Switzerland
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/south-african-covid-variant-reported-in-southern-switzerland/46257338

Health officials in Italian-speaking Switzerland have reported their first case of the South African mutation of the coronavirus. Switzerland has documented at least three cases of the South African variant and ten cases of the variant from Britain, which are apparently more contagious than the original.

The infected individual has been placed in isolation, the Ticino authorities said on January 1. The person had travelled to Switzerland from South Africa and had tested positive before Christmas.

At least thirteen people in Switzerland have now been detected with the mutant virus, ten with the British version and three with a version detected in South Africa.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization says there is not enough information to determine whether the variants could undermine vaccines being rolled out
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10573 on: January 04, 2021, 10:18:21 PM »


------------------------------------------------

Statement by Prof Chris Whitty and Drs Frank Atherton, Gregor Smith and Michael McBride – the chief medical officers of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – as well as Prof Stephen Powis of NHS England:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-alert-level-update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers

Quote
... Following advice from the Joint Biosecurity Centre and in the light of the most recent data, the four UK Chief Medical Officers and NHS England medical director recommend that the UK alert level should move from level 4 to level 5.

Many parts of the health systems in the four nations are already under immense pressure. There are currently very high rates of community transmission, with substantial numbers of Covid patients in hospitals and in intensive care.

Cases are rising almost everywhere; in much of the country driven by the new more transmissible variant. We are not confident that the NHS can handle a further sustained rise in cases and without further action there is a material risk of the NHS in several areas being overwhelmed over the next 21 days.

The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in England stood at 26,626 as of 8am on 4 January — a week-on-week increase of 30%.

The government is advising people who are clinically extremely vulnerable to begin shielding again.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jan/04/uk-coronavirus-live-matt-hancock-south-african-covid-variant-lockdown-schools-latest-updates

---------------------------------------

... If our understanding of the virus doesn’t change, the vaccine rollout continues to be successful, if deaths fall, and everyone “plays their part following rules”, Johnson says he hopes we can move out of lockdown from mid-February. Then regions will start to “cautiously” move down the tiers.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home

----------------------------------------------------------

... and if ifs were skiffs we'd all be sailing
« Last Edit: January 04, 2021, 10:29:15 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10574 on: January 04, 2021, 11:02:01 PM »
It must be said in Johnson’s defense that the vaccine rollout there has been taken with more seriousness, decision and momentum than in any EU country or the US.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10575 on: January 05, 2021, 01:33:27 AM »
New York Detects First Case of New Variant
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/04/new-york-gov-cuomo-confirms-states-first-case-of-new-covid-strain-initially-found-in-uk.html

New York governor Andrew Cuomo has said his state has found its first case of the more contagious strain of the coronavirus first detected in the UK, Reuters reports, raising concerns about threats to hospital capacity should it spread rapidly in the state.

Cuomo said that a man in his 60s living in a town north of Albany has the new strain. The man, who is recovering, had not travelled recently, suggesting community spread is taking place.

The man, worked at a jewelry store where three other people have also tested positive for Covid-19. The state is investigating whether those cases were caused by the new strain.

New York has carried out 5,000 tests for the new strain – and so far has only found the one case, adding that officials have yet to detect any cases with the strain in the downstate New York City area.

"Increased infection is a problem, but the increased hospitalization rate is a game changer, because if a hospital capacity is threatened in a region, then that region would have to close down," Cuomo told reporters.

------------------------------------------

CYA ... BioNTech and Pfizer warned they had no evidence their vaccine would continue to work if the booster shot was given later than tested in trials. They said the “safety and efficacy of the vaccine has not been evaluated on different dosing schedules”.

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US Pharmacist Who Sabotaged 570 Covid Vaccine Doses Is a Conspiracy Theorist, Police Say
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/04/wisconsin-pharmacist-covid-19-vaccine-doses-steven-brandenburg

A Wisconsin pharmacist who was convinced the world was “crashing down” told police he tried to ruin hundreds of doses of coronavirus vaccine because he believed the shots would mutate people’s DNA, according to court documents released on Monday.

Police in Grafton, about 20 miles north of Milwaukee, arrested the Advocate Aurora Health pharmacist Steven Brandenburg last week after an investigation into the 57 spoiled vials of the Moderna vaccine, which officials say contained enough doses to inoculate more than 500 people. Charges are pending.

“He’d formed this belief they were unsafe,” Adam Gerol, the Ozaukee county district attorney, said during a virtual hearing. The prosecutor added that Brandenburg was upset because he was in the midst of divorcing his wife, and an Aurora employee said Brandenburg had taken a gun to work twice.

A detective wrote in a probable cause statement that Brandenburg, 46, is an admitted conspiracy theorist and that he told investigators he intentionally tried to ruin the vaccine because it could hurt people by changing their DNA.

Misinformation around the Covid-19 vaccines has surged online with false claims circulating on everything from the vaccines’ ingredients to possible side-effects.

According to an affidavit Brandenburg’s wife filed, he visited her on 6 December and dropped off a water purifier and two 30-day supplies of food, telling her the world was “crashing down”.

He had also said the government was planning cyber-attacks and was going to shut down the power grid.

She added that he was storing food in bulk along with guns in rental units and she no longer felt safe around him.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10576 on: January 05, 2021, 07:47:56 AM »
... tag 'em and bag 'em ...

--------------------------------------

L.A. Ambulance Crews Told Not to Transport Patients Who Have Little Chance of Survival
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-04/los-angeles-hospitals-cannot-keep-up-covid-19-surge-illness?_amp=true



The situation in Los Angeles County hospitals is so critical that ambulance crews have been advised to cut back on their use of oxygen and to not bring to hospitals patients who have virtually no chance of survival. Officials say they need to focus on patients with a greater chance of surviving.

The measures were taken as circumstances are expected to become even worse in coming weeks, when patients sickened over the Christmas holiday will need treatment, leaving officials desperate for ways to increase capacity and triage care to focus on the sickest patients.

Some hospitals around LA County have  had trouble finding enough portable oxygen containers and getting them refilled. The L.A. County Emergency Medical Services Agency issued a directive Monday that ambulance crews should conserve oxygen by administering it only to patients who have oxygen saturation levels below 90%. To reduce demand on hospitals, the agency last week issued memos directing ambulance staff not to transfer to hospitals most patients who have virtually no chance of survival.

http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1101029_Directive_7-UseofOxygen.pdf

In pre-pandemic times, those with slim odds of pulling through were transported to the hospital, as there was capacity to accommodate even the most unlikely recovery scenarios.

The agency has instructed ambulance crews not to bring in most patients without a pulse if they can’t be resuscitated in the field or terminally ill patients with do-not-resuscitate orders if the hospital treatment would be related to end-of-life care.

And in practice, the new instructions can end in taxing situations for EMS crews and families who may expect that their loved ones will be transported to the hospital even if there’s only a marginal chance of survival.

... Reno said he recently spoke with a paramedic who had to explain to a nursing home administrator that the new criteria meant their ambulance couldn’t take a patient from the facility to a hospital.

... “I’ve been on the phone with nurses that are crying,” Reno said. “It’s just so hard.”

... Emergency rooms are so slammed that some patients are having to wait inside ambulances for as long as eight hours before a bed becomes available. That backlog ties up ambulances and keeps them from being able to respond to other emergency calls.

To deal with the shortage, officials have devised an emergency plan to create temporary “ambulance-receiving spaces” — set up just outside the emergency room entrance and often covered by tents or canopies — to accept patients.

http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1101027_855-HospitalEMSSurge.pdf

A paramedic or emergency medical technician may be used to assist with monitoring up to four patients in such areas, a change from the conventional practice of having one patient monitored by one ambulance staff member. Officials say the plan allows more ambulances to leave the hospital and return to circulation.

An ambulance-receiving space can be implemented only with permission from the L.A. County Emergency Medical Services Agency’s Medical Alert Center. The threshold is met only when all available patient treatment areas in the emergency room — including hallways — are fully occupied and when at least three ambulances or at least three patients managed by EMTs or paramedics must wait for more than an hour.

As of Sunday, the most recent day for which complete data are available, there were 7,898 coronavirus-positive patients hospitalized countywide; 1,627 were in intensive care.

On Wednesday, of the more than 2,000 occupied ICU beds in L.A. County, 77% were used by COVID-19 patients. That’s a marked increase from Dec. 1, when 37% of ICU beds had COVID-19 patients.

Over the last week, the average deaths per day was 184, the highest number on record — the equivalent of a death every eight minutes

... In another worrying trend, Mayor Garcetti said, more people who do not have underlying health conditions are dying of COVID-19. Earlier in the pandemic, about 92% of those who died had preexisting health conditions; that number has dropped to about 86%, officials said.

... Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled an oxygen strategy to beef up the state’s reservoir of resources and provide assistance and other support to hard-hit areas that desperately need the vital therapeutic.

As part of that effort, California has created a state oxygen team, and the Army Corps of Engineers has sent specialized crews to update oxygen-delivery systems at a handful of L.A. County’s aging hospitals.

The state is also working to augment support for home oxygen usage so some patients can recover outside of a hospital setting — allowing for “more availability and more capacity within our existing facilities,” Newsom added.

... Dr. Jeffrey Gunzenhauser, L.A. County’s chief medical officer, said the state had eased some administrative requirements on hospitals, such as the amount of charting required, to free staff so they can take care of more patients.

Officials are also working on identifying and removing barriers to discharging patients to lower levels of care.

“For example, there are beds available in some skilled nursing facilities,” Gunzenhauser said. ... Such facilities have been the site of coronavirus outbreaks, but Gunzenhauser said officials are “trying to set it up so it could be as safe as possible in regards to COVID transmission.”

Patients who could be moved might include those who have suffered a heart attack or stroke and don’t need to stay in the hospital but must receive intense nursing support, he said.

-----------------------------------------------

More than 128,000 people across the United States are currently hospitalized with covid-19 on Monday, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. That number represents an all-time record, and an increase of 2,700 patients in a single day.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

northsylvania

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10577 on: January 05, 2021, 10:32:51 AM »
It must be said in Johnson’s defense that the vaccine rollout there has been taken with more seriousness, decision and momentum than in any EU country or the US.
It must be a postcode thing because where I live, many people are confused as to whether they will get either first or second jabs. They get letters and go to distribution points as directed. Sometimes they get a jab, sometimes they are turned away because supplies have run out. They try to call to rebook and stay on the phone waiting for someone to answer. Some are told they will get a second letter, some get no answer at all depending on the surgery.
Friends in Texas and family in Florida are scheduled for a jab and then they get it, no worries.
"Don't draw Peggy too shapely."

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10578 on: January 05, 2021, 08:46:08 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If the USA or any country gets wacked by this variant of the virus as the UK seems to be .....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10579 on: January 05, 2021, 09:15:22 PM »
Said thread has been started, all feel free to post/rebut there.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3376.0.html

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10580 on: January 06, 2021, 12:10:38 AM »
U.K. Steps Up Biggest Vaccine Drive, With One in 50 Now Infected
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/one-person-in-50-in-england-now-has-covid-u-k-government-says

More than one million people in England now have coronavirus, the British government said, as medics race to vaccinate the most vulnerable against the rapidly spreading disease.

Rocketing case rates from the new virus strain mean one person in every 50 in England now has Covid-19, while in London one in 30 is infected, official survey results showed.

... Johnson defended his decision to order the country to stay at home again, and pointed to latest infection figures showing record levels of coronavirus in the population. “The number of patients in hospitals in England is now 40% higher than at the first peak in April,” he said. “When everybody looks at the position people understand overwhelmingly that we have no choice.”

The lockdown followed warnings from government medical advisers that the National Health Service could be overwhelmed within the next three weeks unless urgent action was taken.

------------------------------------------

First Case of Highly-Contagious COVID-19 Variant from U.K. Discovered in Georgia
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/first-case-highly-contagious-covid-19-variant-discovered-georgia/AXZQ6XRXIBEQPHFJVDSID7NCPE/?outputType=amp

Georgia health officials have identified the first case of a highly-contagious COVID-19 variant discovered in the U.K.

The Georgia Department of Health said the variant was found in an 18-year-old male with no history of travel. He is currently isolating at home.

Officials did not release information about where in the state the variant case was discovered.

------------------------------------------

Los Angeles is Running Out of Oxygen for Patients as Covid Hospitalizations Hit Record Highs Nationwide
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/05/covid-hospitalizations-los-angeles-oxygen/?outputType=amp

With the holidays over, the governor said, more than 2.4 million Californians have been infected, some 27,000 are dead, hospitals are overwhelmed and only about a third of the state’s 1.3 million vaccine doses have made it into the arms of patients.

... Hospital officials in Southern California said they were running low not just on ICU beds but also ventilators and morgue space. But perhaps the most dire shortage is now oxygen. Because coronavirus is a respiratory disease that attack the lungs, most hospitalized patients require oxygen. The sheer number of patients has placed such a strain on oxygen systems that some hospitals are struggling to provide adequate air pressure and flow into patients’ lungs. There are also shortages of portable oxygen tanks in ambulances and ones that are sent home with patients, making it difficult to discharge some patients even as hospitals run out of capacity.

The Army Corps of Engineers has been called in and is sending crews to update oxygen-delivery infrastructure at several aging hospitals — five in downtown Los Angeles and two in San Bernardino. Separately, state emergency teams have been deployed to refill 42 oxygen tanks of medical support units across the state. The state is also leasing mobile oxygen systems to bolster supplies and looking to order several hundred oxygen concentrator units. The overarching goal, Newsom said, is to reduce the stress placed on hospitals’ existing oxygen systems so that they can maintain adequate air pressure for patients.

Expanding the oxygen supply doesn’t end the challenges for hospitals, Kim-Farley said.

... “When you get to that level of volume being pumped through, some of pipes start to freeze up. You start running out of oxygen tanks that patients need to be sent home and discharged,” Kim-Farley said. “As the cases keep increasing you’re going to see those kinds of effects start to pile up. ICU beds get full. The ER gets backed up. Ambulances have no where to take patients. You get severe, chronic staffing shortages. Elective surgeries get canceled again. The ability to care simply degrades.”

In San Bernardino County, a clinical director at a large hospital told reporters that cots have been placed in conference rooms, with plans to put overflow patients in the cafeteria and lobby. In San Diego County, Mr. Newsom said, the new, highly transmissible variant of the virus has now been pinpointed in at least four cases, for a total of at least a half-dozen statewide.

--------------------------------

As the governor was briefing the news media on California’s slow vaccine distribution on Monday, a Mendocino County hospital was furiously inoculating hundreds of people in an ad hoc response to a broken freezer where 830 doses of the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine were thawing, rapidly.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-04/freezer-broken-california-town-had-to-use-or-lose-vaccine-shots

------------------------------------------------

Anti-mask protesters stormed a Ralph’s grocery store and the Westfield Century City mall on Sunday, calling customers “mask Nazis” and ramming masked shoppers with shopping carts. The disruption comes a week after people in Trump regalia orchestrated a similar clash at a Fairfax grocery store.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-04/maskless-protesters-grocery-store-westfield-century-city-mall

-------------------------------------------------

... States with the largest share of their populations hospitalized are largely concentrated in the south and west: Arizona, Nevada, Alabama, California, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Texas and Delaware.

... “Right now the entire country is essentially in uncontrolled spread, so every single state is looking for those same limited resources,” said Marjorie Bessel, chief clinical officer at Banner Health. “It’s a sad situation to not have had more mitigation be undertaken when all the science showed us exactly what’s happening is exactly what we predicted.”

... Arizona, once heralded for turning the corner after a summer surge, now has 69 of every 100,000 residents hospitalized with the virus — the highest rate in the country. Hospital leaders say they saw this coming a month ago, but they allege Gov. Doug Ducey (R) ignored their pleas to reimpose measures to curb the spread. State officials have said enacting restrictions would do little to curb transmission at private gatherings.

The day after Thanksgiving, a team of researchers issued a dire warning in a memo to the Arizona Department of Health Services. Failure to issue a shelter-in-place order to stave off a crisis in hospitals “risks a catastrophe on a scale of the worst natural disaster the state has ever experienced. It would be akin to facing a major forest fire without evacuation orders,” the memo said.

https://beta.documentcloud.org/documents/20417751-azdhs-recommendations-11_2020

Ducey instead loosened restrictions on outdoor dining several days later. He prohibited gatherings over 50 people, double the threshold sought by medical groups, but declined to take other measures they urged, such as a statewide mask mandate and ban on indoor dining. He rejected calls from the state superintendent of schools to keep schools virtual for two weeks as a holiday quarantine period.

“Our state is doing very little to slow transmission of virus. We have a very lax policy environment. Our businesses are open,” said Joe Gerald, a University of Arizona researcher who has been tracking the spread of the virus and was among those urging a shelter-in-place order. “The virus is just basically transmitting almost uninhibited through our population.”

The researchers’ warnings of a hospital crisis came to fruition. Hospitalizations climbed past their summer peak in mid-December and have been steadily rising since then. Just seven percent of the state’s ICU beds have been available since the new year started. The seven-day average of new cases has surpassed 8,000, up from 5,700 on New Year’s Eve.

... “It’s very demoralizing sometimes to work here [AZ] and to know the science and for it to be ignored,” said Gilman, who drew national attention and a call from President-elect Biden for bringing attention to the state’s lack of hospital beds. “A lot of people are going to die because of failed leadership.

... Nearly every major hospital in the metropolitan Atlanta area is now full, prompting state officials to reopen a field hospital at the Word Congress Center, one of the nation’s largest convention centers. Northeast Georgia Health System says its four hospitals are running out of ways to expand capacity after setting up cots in gyms, creating temporary spaces in hallways and, in some cases, treating patients while they are still inside an ambulance.

Eight of the ten American counties reporting the largest per capita increases in their caseload are small, rural Georgia counties.

... Public health experts say the country faces a similar challenge it did last spring: Buying time.

------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile, Trump falsely calls covid-19 death count 'fake news' as it surpasses 350,000
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/trump-calls-us-coronavirus-death-toll-fake-news-as-count-surpasses-350000/2021/01/03/6bdc0b08-4e14-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10581 on: January 06, 2021, 08:21:58 AM »
South African Covid Variant Appears to ‘Obviate’ Antibody Drugs, Dr. Scott Gottlieb says
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/05/south-africa-covid-variant-appears-to-obviate-antibody-drugs-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html

"The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may obviate some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs," said the former FDA chief in the Trump administration in an interview on CNBC's "The News with Shepard Smith" on Tuesday evening. "Right now that strain does appear to be prevalent in South America and Brazil, the two parts of the world, right now, that are in their summer, but also experiencing a very dense epidemic, and that's concerning.

Gottlieb cited experimental evidence from Bloom Lab, and explained 501.V2  does appear to partially escape prior immunity. It means that some of the antibodies people produce when they get infected with Covid, as well as the antibody drugs, may not be quite as effective.

-----------------------------------------------

Bloom Labs
https://mobile.twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1346442000472580098
https://mobile.twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1346442004067090432

We mapped how all mutations to #SARSCoV2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) affect recognition by convalescent polyclonal human sera ( https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1 ).

Among implications: E484K (South African lineage) worrying for immune escape; RBD mutations in UK lineage less so (1/n).

We first determined where in #SARSCoV2 mutations most affect viral neutralization.
@veeslerlab had reported RBD-binding antibodies responsible for most neut activity of human sera: https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420312344 . We validated w sera from @HelenChuMD's HAARVI cohort (below)



Since RBD is main antigenic region (although NTD also important, see below),
@AllieGreaney applied method she & @tylernstarr developed for monoclonal antibodies ( https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312820306247 ) to map how all mutations to RBD affect binding by *polyclonal* human sera

Below are escape maps for sera of 4 people (preprint has more). Tall letters mean mutations greatly reduce serum binding. 3 main sera epitopes in RBD. Most important centers on E484 (dark blue), another is 443-450 loop (light blue), last is distal from ACE2 (orange) (4/n)



But lots of variation in specificity of anti-RBD immunity among people. For instance, image in previous tweet shows subjects C (& to lesser degree I) focus on E484, subject G focuses on 443-450 loop, and subject K has broad binding not much affected by any single mutation.

Key results validate in neutralization assays. Mutations at E484 greatly reduce neutralization (>10 fold) by sera from some individuals (examples below). Unfortunately, the South African lineage has E484K, as do some other isolates from elsewhere.



But can make some generalizations based on examples above + rest of data in pre-print. On average, mutations at E484 have biggest effect on polyclonal sera. Also large effects at sites structurally adjacent to E484 (pre-print has list), and in 443-450 loop for some sera.

Here's plot of how mutating RBD sites affects average serum binding (y-axis) vs frequency of mutations (x-axis). E484K in S African lineage most worrying. But others affect some serum to various degrees & no such thing as "average" human when it comes to serum specificity



What do results mean for possible #SARSCoV2 immune escape? Certainly mutations like E484K are concerning. But they *reduce* neut activity, they don't ablate it. Again, look at CoV-229E: takes years of evolution to escape serum neut of most people https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1339939732529111040 (16/n)

Below is serum from 26 yr old collected in 1985: it neutralizes 1984 virus [CoV-229E] well, but 10-fold less activity against 1992 virus & no activity against viruses after 2008.



Heterogeneity also shown by @e_andreano @RommieAmaro @McLellan_Lab, who found multiple mutations that greatly (300-fold) reduce neut of #SARSCoV2 by one human serum but often only modestly (a few fold) affect other sera: https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.424451v1 (18/n)

But biggest priority is vaccinate! Despite above, I'm confident current vaccines will be useful for quite a while. Reasons: (a) even worst mutations (ie, E484) only erode neut activity of some sera, don't eliminate it for any, (b) current vaccines elicit strong immunity... (20/n)

... (c) evidence in animals (& from humans after 1st vaccine dose) that modest immunity can blunt disease, (d) natural immunity to seasonal CoV provides some homologous protection for 3+ years even though they evolve too (see https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-52) (21/n)

-----------------------------------------------

Takeaway .... booster vaccine shots every 2-3 years or sooner.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10582 on: January 06, 2021, 09:06:02 AM »
Dozens Of New Cases Of More Infectious Coronavirus Strain ID’d In Southern California
https://deadline.com/2021/01/dozens-now-infected-new-coronavirus-strain-b117-1234665404/amp/

On Monday, there were four confirmed cases in Southern California of the new, more contagious strain of SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes Covid-19. By Tuesday, officials announced that that number had jumped to at least 26.

Twenty-four confirmed and four probable cases of the more contagious strain of SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes COVID-19, had identified in San Diego County, that region’s Health and Human Services Agency announced on Tuesday.

The new strain has reportedly been identified in at least 33 countries and four U.S. states including Colorado, Florida, Georgia, New York and California.

The two dozen new variant cases were confirmed on Jan. 4 from specimens collected from Dec. 27 through Dec. 31 and tested at the San Diego-based laboratory Helix and its partner Illumina under a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance project.

The 24 newly-infected Californians are believed to have no travel history related to the infection. They reportedly come from 19 different households, but investigations and contact tracing are ongoing.

“The fact that these cases have been identified in multiple parts of the region shows that this strain of the virus could be rapidly spreading,” said Wilma Wooten, M.D., M.P.H. County public health officer. “People should be extra cautions to prevent getting and spreading COVID-19, especially this variant, which research has shown is more contagious.”

No B.1.1.7 infections have been identified in Los Angeles County yet but, as of Tuesday, L.A. health officials had only tested 80 specimens out of the 840,611 total positive Covid-19 cases identified to date in the county.

L.A.’s Director of Public Health, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, said that Angelenos should assume the new variant is loose in the county.

-------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Covid-19 Update: County Records 1,000 Deaths In Just 6 Days; Virus Now Claiming More Lives Daily Than All Other Causes Combined
https://deadline.com/2021/01/los-angeles-covid-19-records-1000-deaths-in-6-days-1234665299/

On December 30th, Los Angeles County announced it had passed the dark milestone of 10,000 deaths related to Covid-19 in 2020. It was a grim end to a grim year. Now, less than a week later, the county has already passed 11,000 pandemic-related deaths.

Those numbers are a broader indication of just how quickly the region’s death toll is rising. Last week, L.A. saw three consecutive days marked by a record number of virus deaths.

According to County Director of Health Services, Dr. Chrintina Ghaly, a staggering 3/4 of all patients in L.A. County ICUs are there because of Covid.

... Ferrer reported on Monday that current test positivity rate in the county was 21%. That means 1 in 5 people tested in the county is coming up positive. “Community transmission rates are so high that you run the risk of transmission whenever you leave your home,” she said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10583 on: January 06, 2021, 09:38:04 AM »
Rep. Kevin Brady Becomes Second Member of Congress to Test Positive After First Vaccine Dose
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/06/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/?outputType=amp

Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) said Tuesday evening that he has tested positive for the coronavirus weeks after receiving an initial dose of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine, which is significantly less effective before a second dose is administered.

... “As recommended, I received a first dose of the Pfizer vaccine Dec 18 & also recently tested negative for Covid on New Years Day,” Brady, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, wrote in a tweet. He said that he received his positive diagnosis from Congress’s attending physician on Tuesday night and was directed to self-quarantine.

Brady’s announcement came one day after a fellow Texas Republican, Rep. Kay Granger, announced that she had tested positive for the coronavirus.

... Clinical trials found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had only 52 percent efficacy after just one dose, but that a second dose boosted efficacy to 95 percent. Many fear that high-profile instances of vaccine recipients contracting the coronavirus before they receive the second dose, or in the 10 days before their immune response to the first dose kicks in, will sow distrust and lead people to believe the vaccine is not effective.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1346662182172426240

Doesn’t this call into question the @BorisJohnson and @MattHancock idea of leaving longer period between 1st and 2nd #vaccine?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10584 on: January 06, 2021, 09:57:07 AM »
Said thread has been started, all feel free to post/rebut there.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3376.0.html

I have moved the posts related to Covid origins to the thread above.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10585 on: January 06, 2021, 10:08:54 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10586 on: January 06, 2021, 12:10:44 PM »

... Clinical trials found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had only 52 percent efficacy after just one dose, but that a second dose boosted efficacy to 95 percent. Many fear that high-profile instances of vaccine recipients contracting the coronavirus before they receive the second dose, or in the 10 days before their immune response to the first dose kicks in, will sow distrust and lead people to believe the vaccine is not effective.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1346662182172426240

Doesn’t this call into question the @BorisJohnson and @MattHancock idea of leaving longer period between 1st and 2nd #vaccine?
Yes.
But we have a Prime Minister who can't resist a short cut, and it's us who end up in the bramble bush.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

BeeKnees

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10587 on: January 06, 2021, 02:42:20 PM »
Quote
... Clinical trials found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had only 52 percent efficacy after just one dose, but that a second dose boosted efficacy to 95 percent. Many fear that high-profile instances of vaccine recipients contracting the coronavirus before they receive the second dose, or in the 10 days before their immune response to the first dose kicks in, will sow distrust and lead people to believe the vaccine is not effective.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1346662182172426240

Doesn’t this call into question the @BorisJohnson and @MattHancock idea of leaving longer period between 1st and 2nd #vaccine?

I find this misleading.
This thread explains:
https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1344347380917940226?s=20

"The 52% figure is the average protection over these 21 days*, so it includes that initial time before the immune system has had time to create a response. If one instead looks at the day 10 to day 22 period one instead gets an efficacy value of 86%. Whereas if one looks at the day 0 to day 10 period there is an efficacy of 10%."

The problem appears to be more about longevity of immune system response rather than the first dose giving poor protection after the initial 2-3 weeks the immune system takes to ramp up.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10588 on: January 06, 2021, 03:15:00 PM »

... Clinical trials found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had only 52 percent efficacy after just one dose, but that a second dose boosted efficacy to 95 percent. Many fear that high-profile instances of vaccine recipients contracting the coronavirus before they receive the second dose, or in the 10 days before their immune response to the first dose kicks in, will sow distrust and lead people to believe the vaccine is not effective.

Doesn’t this call into question the @BorisJohnson and @MattHancock idea of leaving longer period between 1st and 2nd #vaccine?


Most of the positives that reduce reported efficacy to just 52% after one dose are in the 12 days following vaccination.



Do you see a second change to flatter slope after 21 days or only after about 9 to 12 days after first dose?

I now see BeeKnees beat me to posting this but thought useful to leave graph in.

sailor

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10589 on: January 06, 2021, 03:58:50 PM »
It must be said in Johnson’s defense that the vaccine rollout there has been taken with more seriousness, decision and momentum than in any EU country or the US.
It must be a postcode thing because where I live, many people are confused as to whether they will get either first or second jabs. They get letters and go to distribution points as directed. Sometimes they get a jab, sometimes they are turned away because supplies have run out. They try to call to rebook and stay on the phone waiting for someone to answer. Some are told they will get a second letter, some get no answer at all depending on the surgery.
Friends in Texas and family in Florida are scheduled for a jab and then they get it, no worries.

Bloomberg vaccine tracker.
UK is way ahead of the EU.
A few days ago if was also well ahead of the US but vaccination must be accelerating over there. It may depend on the state where they live too, and on their level of privilege (being the US healthcare system based on privilege unlike UK or EU)

The tracker shows more detailed info:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/


interstitial

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10590 on: January 06, 2021, 03:59:12 PM »
Trump supporters encouraged to hug a stranger today to make the rally a "super spreader event"

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10591 on: January 06, 2021, 04:20:40 PM »
Another healthy person dies from the "vaccine". 

If this keeps up, there will be an IFR for COVID-19, and an IFR for the "vaccine".

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/health-worker-dies-two-days-after-receiving-pfizers-covid-vaccine-831813
« Last Edit: January 06, 2021, 04:27:04 PM by harpy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10592 on: January 06, 2021, 04:32:27 PM »
They are just going by Pfizer's paper

Fernando P. Polack, M.D., Stephen J. Thomas, M.D., Nicholas Kitchin, M.D., Judith Absalon, M.D., et al., for the C4591001 Clinical Trial Group, Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine, N Engl J Med 2020; 383:2603-2615
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577



Figure 3 shows cases of Covid-19 or severe Covid-19 with onset at any time after the first dose (mITT population) (additional data on severe Covid-19 are available in Table S5). Between the first dose and the second dose, 39 cases in the BNT162b2 group and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed, resulting in a vaccine efficacy of 52% (95% CI, 29.5 to 68.4) during this interval and indicating early protection by the vaccine, starting as soon as 12 days after the first dose.

Discussion:

... The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen. Nevertheless, in the interval between the first and second doses, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2. Seven or more days after the second dose, vaccine efficacy then rose to 95% (90.3% to 97.6%), with eight covid-19 cases reported in the vaccine group and 162 cases in the placebo group.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10593 on: January 06, 2021, 04:35:35 PM »
lol.

Are they seriously basing efficacy on 121 people? ;D


northsylvania

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10594 on: January 06, 2021, 04:39:09 PM »
It must be said in Johnson’s defense that the vaccine rollout there has been taken with more seriousness, decision and momentum than in any EU country or the US.
It must be a postcode thing because where I live, many people are confused as to whether they will get either first or second jabs. They get letters and go to distribution points as directed. Sometimes they get a jab, sometimes they are turned away because supplies have run out. They try to call to rebook and stay on the phone waiting for someone to answer. Some are told they will get a second letter, some get no answer at all depending on the surgery.
Friends in Texas and family in Florida are scheduled for a jab and then they get it, no worries.

Bloomberg vaccine tracker.
UK is way ahead of the EU.
A few days ago if was also well ahead of the US but vaccination must be accelerating over there. It may depend on the state where they live too, and on their level of privilege (being the US healthcare system based on privilege unlike UK or EU)

The tracker shows more detailed info:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
The EU adopted vaccines more slowly so they are a few weeks behind the UK on rollout.
The U.S. does vary by state. Rumours have it that some rural states have no way to distribute Moderna and Pfizer vaccines because of temperature requirements. The people I know there live in urban areas but they are either older, are carers, or have other reasons they are at risk.
"Don't draw Peggy too shapely."

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10595 on: January 06, 2021, 04:39:51 PM »
harpy, please read the whole paper before you make a statement like that. The study is based on over 40,000 participants.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10596 on: January 06, 2021, 04:41:15 PM »
Another healthy person dies from the "vaccine". 

If this keeps up, there will be an IFR for COVID-19, and an IFR for the "vaccine".

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/health-worker-dies-two-days-after-receiving-pfizers-covid-vaccine-831813

Certainly some concern, but: If 3m people have been vaccinated and typical life expectancy for such people is 10 years then we would expect 15m/10/365*2 =8215 deaths within 2 days of taking vaccine. Only a few of those deaths would be sudden and unexplained.

It should take more than one such case to raise serious concern. You said "another", missed that sorry, got a ref for previous one(s)?

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10597 on: January 06, 2021, 04:47:32 PM »
Well, according to that quote, only 121 people actually got the virus.
Quote
39 cases in the BNT162b2 group and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed

The study could have 100,000 participants but if only 121 people were tested for efficacy...


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10598 on: January 06, 2021, 04:49:49 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10599 on: January 06, 2021, 04:51:18 PM »
that looks like Pfizer propaganda, @vox.  With respect.

They don't mention that the float's rope has only been tested on 121 people.