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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 594505 times)

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10600 on: January 06, 2021, 04:47:32 PM »
Well, according to that quote, only 121 people actually got the virus.
Quote
39 cases in the BNT162b2 group and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed

The study could have 100,000 participants but if only 121 people were tested for efficacy...


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10601 on: January 06, 2021, 04:49:49 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10602 on: January 06, 2021, 04:51:18 PM »
that looks like Pfizer propaganda, @vox.  With respect.

They don't mention that the float's rope has only been tested on 121 people.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10603 on: January 06, 2021, 04:58:51 PM »
Safety and Efficacy :-* of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?articleTools=true

So, 121 here....

Quote
Between the first dose and
the second dose, 39 cases in the BNT162b2 group
and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed,
resulting in a vaccine efficacy of 52% (95% CI,
29.5 to 68.4) during this interval and indicating
early protection by the vaccine, starting as soon
as 12 days after the first dose.

170 here....

Quote
There were 8 cases of
Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose among participants assigned to receive BNT162b2 and 162 cases among those assigned to placebo;

So out of 43,548 participants, a grand total of 291 .

 ;D
« Last Edit: January 06, 2021, 05:04:23 PM by harpy »

BeeKnees

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10604 on: January 06, 2021, 05:01:18 PM »
The British Society for immunology have released a statement on the UK vaccination regime.

https://www.immunology.org/policy-and-public-affairs/briefings-and-position-statements/COVID-19-vaccine-dosing-schedules

"As the professional body representing scientists and clinicians who study the immune system, the British Society for Immunology places the utmost value on an evidence-based approach to medical decisions. Our priority is always to see that COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out in a manner that maximises safety and protection while minimising serious disease. However, we also recognise that the UK now faces an unprecedented situation. We have an extremely challenging few months ahead with high levels of SARS-CoV-2 circulating through our communities together with the emergence of the new, more transmissible variant resulting in extra pressure on healthcare services.

Given this, although we would prefer the original dosing schedules tested in the trials to be used clinically, we recognise that a pragmatic approach in the short-term is needed, and accept the rationale for the change in dosing schedule for the Oxford/AstraZeneca and for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine that has been recommended by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI). "

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10605 on: January 06, 2021, 05:15:20 PM »
Safety and Efficacy :-* of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?articleTools=true

So, 121 here....

Quote
Between the first dose and
the second dose, 39 cases in the BNT162b2 group
and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed,
resulting in a vaccine efficacy of 52% (95% CI,
29.5 to 68.4) during this interval and indicating
early protection by the vaccine, starting as soon
as 12 days after the first dose.

170 here....

Quote
There were 8 cases of
Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose among participants assigned to receive BNT162b2 and 162 cases among those assigned to placebo;

So out of 43,548 participants, a grand total of 291 .

 ;D

You are cherry picking there. They are reporting on a small sub set of all cases as you can read in the earlier part of the article.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10606 on: January 06, 2021, 05:20:32 PM »
Here's the entire section, if you want to read the whole thing:

Quote
Efficacy
Among 36,523 participants who had no evidence
of existing or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 8 cases
of Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the
second dose were observed among vaccine recipients and 162 among placebo recipients
. This
case split corresponds to 95.0% vaccine efficacy
(95% confidence interval [CI], 90.3 to 97.6; Table 2). Among participants with and those without evidence of prior SARS CoV-2 infection, 9 cases
of Covid-19
at least 7 days after the second dose
were observed among vaccine recipients and 169
among placebo recipients
, corresponding to 94.6%
vaccine efficacy (95% CI, 89.9 to 97.3). Supplemental analyses indicated that vaccine efficacy
among subgroups defined by age, sex, race, ethnicity, obesity, and presence of a coexisting condition was generally consistent with that observed
in the overall population (Table 3 and Table S4).
Vaccine efficacy among participants with hypertension was analyzed separately but was consistent with the other subgroup analyses (vaccine
efficacy, 94.6%; 95% CI, 68.7 to 99.9; case split:
BNT162b2, 2 cases; placebo, 44 cases). Figure 3
shows cases of Covid-19 or severe Covid-19 with
onset at any time after the first dose (mITT population) (additional data on severe Covid-19 are
available in Table S5). Between the first dose and
the second dose, 39 cases in the BNT162b2 group
and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed
,
resulting in a vaccine efficacy of 52% (95% CI,
29.5 to 68.4) during this interval and indicating
early protection by the vaccine, starting as soon
as 12 days after the first dose.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10607 on: January 06, 2021, 05:29:12 PM »
And prior to that they mention stuff like this:

A total of 43,548 participants underwent randomization, of whom 43,448 received
injections: 21,720 with BNT162b2 and 21,728 with placebo. There were 8 cases of
Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose among participants assigned to receive BNT162b2 and 162 cases among those assigned to placebo;
BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19 (95% credible interval, 90.3 to
97.6). Similar vaccine efficacy (generally 90 to 100%) was observed across subgroups
defined by age, sex, race, ethnicity, baseline body-mass index, and the presence of
coexisting conditions. Among 10 cases of severe Covid-19 with onset after the first
dose, 9 occurred in placebo recipients and 1 in a BNT162b2 recipient. The safety
profile of BNT162b2 was characterized by short-term, mild-to-moderate pain at the
injection site, fatigue, and headache. The incidence of serious adverse events was
low and was similar in the vaccine and placebo groups.

...

Between July 27, 2020, and November 14, 2020,
a total of 44,820 persons were screened, and
43,548 persons 16 years of age or older underwent randomization at 152 sites worldwide
(United States, 130 sites; Argentina, 1; Brazil, 2;
South Africa, 4; Germany, 6; and Turkey, 9) in
the phase 2/3 portion of the trial. A total of
43,448 participants received injections: 21,720
received BNT162b2 and 21,728 received placebo
(Fig. 1). At the data cut-off date of October 9, a
total of 37,706 participants had a median of at
least 2 months of safety data available after the
second dose and contributed to the main safety
data set. Among these 37,706 participants, 49%
were female, 83% were White, 9% were Black or
African American, 28% were Hispanic or Latinx,
35% were obese (body mass index [the weight in
kilograms divided by the square of the height in
meters] of at least 30.0), and 21% had at least
one coexisting condition. The median age was
52 years, and 42% of participants were older
than 55 years of age (Table 1 and Table S2)

The 8 and 162 are an upper bound for after the second dose.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10608 on: January 06, 2021, 05:37:05 PM »
Yes, that's safety data.

In the statistical methods section, the authors clearly state they did not analyze that data statistically.

So, yes, according to this study, it does appear that the "vaccine" has some safety data. Until they do a formal statistical analysis on that subject, we have a description, not a scientific conclusion.

Quote
The safety analyses included all participants
who received at least one dose of BNT162b2 or
placebo. The findings are descriptive in nature
and not based on formal statistical hypothesis
testing.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2021, 05:47:31 PM by harpy »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10609 on: January 06, 2021, 06:32:13 PM »
The South African Variant of COVID-19 does appear to have the potential to be a game changer, if any of these preliminary reports are accurate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/south-africa-covid-variant-appears-to-obviate-antibody-drugs-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html

Quote
“The new variant has mutated a part of the spike protein that our antibodies bind to, to try to clear the virus itself, so this is concerning,” Gottlieb said. “Now, the vaccine can become a backstop against these variants really getting more of a foothold here in the United States, but we need to quicken the pace of vaccination.”

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10610 on: January 06, 2021, 06:43:03 PM »
Quote
39 cases in the BNT162b2 group and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed
I interpret this as:
They gave upity-thousand people a vaccine and upity-thousand people a placebo.
39 cases in the vaccine group.
82 cases in the placebo group.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10611 on: January 06, 2021, 06:46:49 PM »
“Shkreli Award” Goes to Moderna for “Blatantly Greedy” COVID Vaccine Prices
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/moderna-shamed-with-shkreli-award-over-high-covid-vaccine-prices/

One of the leading developers of COVID-19 vaccines has now been placed in the ranks of people like Martin Shkreli—the disgraced pharmaceutical executive infamous for jacking up the price of an old, life-saving drug by more than 5,000 percent. He is now serving an 84-month prison sentence from a 2017 conviction on fraud counts unrelated to the drug pricing.

Moderna, maker of one of only two vaccines granted emergency authorizations to prevent COVID-19 in the US, has been shamed with a 2020 “Shkreli Award” by the Lown Institute, a healthcare think tank. The awards, announced annually for four years now, go to “perpetrators of the ten most egregious examples of profiteering and dysfunction in health care.”

Award judges cited Moderna’s pricing of its COVID-19 vaccine, which was developed with $1 billion in federal funding. Still, despite the tax-payer backing, Moderna set the estimated prices for its vaccine significantly higher than other vaccine developers.

In August, the company set the estimated price range of $32 to $37 per dose, making the two-dose regimen $64 to $74 per person. At the time, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and its partner BioNTech—which now have the other US-authorized COVID-19 vaccine—had inked a deal with the US government to supply doses at $19.50 each, for a two-dose regimen of $39 per person. Notably, Pfizer and BioNTech developed their vaccine without any federal funding. Also, Johnson & Johnson had a deal to supply the US government with doses of its vaccine—still in the works—at a rate of $10 per dose.

In November, amid criticism, Moderna reportedly lowered its estimated cost to range in price from $25 to $37 per dose. And, in the end, it signed a deal with the US government to provide the vaccine at a price of $15 per dose, or $30 for a two-dose regimen per person.

Still, the Lown Institute’s judges wrote that, “given the upfront investment by the US government, we are essentially paying for the vaccine twice.”

Award judge Deborah Blum added, “This is so blatantly greedy from a company that has no track record in producing vaccines and built its current one with taxpayer help.” Blum is a Pulitzer Prize winning science journalist and director of the Knight Science Journalism program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Moderna made another appearance on the award list. Judges noted that Dr. Elizabeth Nabel, CEO of Brigham and Women’s Hospital and a member of Moderna’s board, penned an op-ed in February defending high drug prices. Nabel did not disclose her role at Moderna in the op-ed. She also faced questions of conflicts-of-interest after Brigham and Women’s Hospital was selected as a trial site for Moderna’s vaccine.

Award judges noted that Nabel had received $487,500 in Moderna stock options and other payments in 2019 and sold $8.5 million worth of Moderna stock in 2020 after the company’s stock nearly quadrupled amid fanfare around its COVID-19 vaccine. Nabel resigned from Moderna's board amid criticism in July.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10612 on: January 06, 2021, 07:37:13 PM »
Well, according to that quote, only 121 people actually got the virus.
Quote
39 cases in the BNT162b2 group and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed

The study could have 100,000 participants but if only 121 people were tested for efficacy...

Huh ????

That is 40,000 participants tested.
(not all positive of course.

39 + 82 = 121 is those tested positive before dose 2.
In total it was 50 in vaccine group + 275 in placebo group = 325 tested positive

At about day 12 it was around 35 in vaccine group to 37-40 in placebo group. So after day 12 the cases tested positive were about 15 to 235 a ratio of over 15.6:1 or efficacy of around 93.6% assuming you allow 12 days for immunity to kick in. 

Do you think it plausible that you could toss a coin 235 times and only get 15 heads or are you just trying to spread doubt by saying it is small numbers?

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10613 on: January 06, 2021, 08:21:17 PM »
CDC Study Says Severe Allergic Reactions to Vaccine Run 10 Times the Flu Shot, But Still Rare
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/cdc-says-severe-allergic-reactions-to-covid-vaccine-run-10-times-the-flu-shot-but-still-rare.html

A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that people receiving Covid-19 vaccines experience anaphylaxis — a severe and life-threatening allergic reaction that occurs rarely after vaccination — at a rate 10 times higher compared with the flu vaccine.

However, the condition is still thought to be rare, and the drugs from Pfizer and Moderna remain safe for public use, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.

Though still rare, the CDC said there were 21 cases of anaphylaxis — a severe and life-threatening allergic reaction that occurs rarely after vaccination — out of the nearly 1.9 million people who received their first shot of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine in mid- to-late December, according to a study published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on Wednesday.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7002e1.htm?s_cid=mm7002e1_w

Of the 21 people who experienced the severe allergic reactions, 17 of them had a documented history of allergies or allergic reactions. Seven of those people had a history of anaphylaxis, the study found.

Among the 20 people with follow-up information available, all had recovered or been discharged home, the study found.

“Of course, we all would hope that any vaccine would have zero adverse events, but even at 11 cases per million doses administered, it’s a very safe vaccine,” Messonnier said.

------------------------------------------

2020 Redux?: China Hits City of 11 Million With Tight Restrictions as More Than 100 COVID Cases Discovered
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/china-covid-lockdown-hebei-shijiazhuang-city-coronavirus-cases-discovered/

Travel has been restricted to a northern Chinese city of 11 million people and schools closed as authorities moved on Wednesday to snuff out a cluster of COVID-19 cases after more than 100 infections were confirmed.

Ten major highways leading into the city of Shijiazhuang, around 200 miles south of Beijing, have been closed and a bus terminus was closed in an attempt to prevent the virus spreading beyond the city in Hebei province.

China's state-run Global Times newspaper said all train ticket sales from neighboring Hebei province into the capital were halted and Shijiazhuang's long-distance bus station closed as officials declared Hebei in "wartime mode" against the virus.

There have been 117 cases in the city, including at least 63 more reported Wednesday. A total of 78 of the cases were asymptomatic, prompting mass testing across the affected area.

All schools in Shijiazhuang have been closed.

The village of Xiaoguozhuang within the city boundary has been classified as a "high risk" district and sealed off.

More than 400,000 residents of another nearby city, Nangong, have also been tested, authorities said.

The Global Times quoted Feng Zijian, deputy head of China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as telling state TV on Tuesday that the COVID-19 strain causing the cases in Hebei was an imported one, "very likely from Europe," according to the Times.

Beijing is racing to vaccinate millions ahead of the country's Lunar New Year travel rush next month.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10614 on: January 07, 2021, 08:12:37 AM »
C'mon, this is sort of a science site. Reading and understanding a Phase 3 abstract is not that difficult.

Pfizer's research is quite clear: most of the immunization is done by the first shot, and you clearly have very strong protection two weeks after the first shot. So, yes, Britain is right ( a rare occurance these days :) vaccinate as many as you can with one shot and worry about the second shot later.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10615 on: January 07, 2021, 01:05:00 PM »
Japan's numbers rising rapidly , state of emergency in Tokyo .. perfect preparation for the olympics
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10616 on: January 07, 2021, 07:37:28 PM »
London Will Be Overwhelmed By Covid In 2 Weeks Says Leaked NHS England Briefing
https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-london-will-be-overwhelmed-by-covid-in-a-fortnight-says-leaked-nhs-england-briefing/7029264.article

London’s hospitals are less than two weeks from being overwhelmed by covid even under the ‘best’ case scenario, according to an official briefing given to the capital’s most senior doctors this afternoon.

NHS England London medical director Vin Diwakar set out the stark analysis to the medical directors of London’s hospital trusts on a Zoom call.

The NHS England presentation, seen by HSJ (see slides below story), showed that even if the number of covid patients grew at the lowest rate considered likely, and measures to manage demand and increase capacity, including open the capital’s Nightingale hospital, were successful, the NHS in London would be short of nearly 2,000 general and acute and intensive care beds by 19 January.

The briefing forecasts demand for both G&A and intensive care beds, for both covid and non-covid patients, against capacity. It accounts for the impact of planned measures to mitigate demand and increase capacity.

For both G&A and intensive care, three scenarios are detailed: “Best”, which projects 4 per cent daily growth; “average” which plots 5 per cent daily growth; and “worse” which forecasts 6 per cent daily growth.

The briefing says that growth on 5 January was 3.5 per cent for G&A beds 4.8 per cent for ICU beds.

General and acute
Under the “best” case scenario, the number of covid patients in G&A beds is projected to rise to 9,500 by 19 January, while the number of non-covid patients stays the same at 7,460 (as it does under all the scenarios).

After some very small demand control measures, total demand is projected as 17,100. The briefing then sets out ways the capacity might be increased. These measures include the NHS finding another 400 beds, and the independent sector 50. These would be complemented by 1,000 “step down beds”, some of the supplied by the opening of the capital’s Nightingale hospital, and 150 freed up by specialist trusts.

This gives total capacity of 15,600 – 1,500 short of forecast demand.

The shortfall in beds – described as a “mitigated deficit” – in the “average” scenario is 2,900 and 4,400 in the “worse” one.

The briefing shows that as of 5 January the London NHS had an “unmitigated surplus” of 720 general and acute beds, 5 per cent of its total. Just over 40 per cent of its G&A beds were occupied by covid positive patients.

Intensive care
The intensive care, or “adult critical care”, model follows the same pattern as that for G&A beds.

Under the “best” scenario, the number of covid positive patients rises to 1,600 and “total unmitigated demand” to just over 2,000.

Mitigated capacity is projected to be 1,660, giving a “deficit” of just over 400 intensive care beds.

The briefing shows that as of 5 January the London NHS had an “unmitigated surplus” of just 46 ICU beds, three per cent of its total. Just over 70 per cent of its ICU beds were occupied by covid positive patients.

Options to avoid being overwhelmed
In a statement given to HSJ this evening, Dr Diwakar said: “Hospitals in London are coming under significant pressure from high covid-19 infection rates which is why they have opened hundreds of surge critical care beds and are planning to open more, including opening the London Nightingale.

“While staff are going the extra mile to care for patients it is crucial that people do everything they can to reduce transmission of the virus.”

HSJ understands that the briefing was part of an attempt to get senior clinical leaders to focus on what they would have to do, if current growth trends were not surpressed by the tighter lockdown.

Options that have been floated include very signficantly reducing the number of non-covid patients by cancelling more elective work and/or sending those patients to other regions or private providers, in the capital or elsewhere.

Pursuing such options may be limited, however, with other regions also seeing rapid growth in covid occupancy caused by the new strain of the virus spreading acoss the country.

HSJ understands the medical directors discussed opening up further capacity within the capital over and above that contained in the briefing, but that lack of available staff meant this was unlikely to succeed.

In the first wave, London peaked with about 1,160 covid patients in critical care. It is now just short of this figure, on 1,075. In the spring, total available critical care capacity was put at around 1,550. At one point it was claimed this could be “super surged” much further – to at least double this – but it is unclear if that was truly possible. It would require radical dilution of staffing and standards of care.



   
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10617 on: January 07, 2021, 09:13:52 PM »
CDC Has Found More Than 50 US Cases of Coronavirus Variant First Identified In UK
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/06/health/coronavirus-variant-us-cdc-cases/index.html

At least 52 cases of a coronavirus variant first identified in the UK have been found in the United States, according to data posted Wednesday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

This includes at least 26 cases in California, 22 cases in Florida, two cases in Colorado, and one case each in Georgia and New York.

The earliest known US sample that carried the current version of the variant was taken on December 19 in Florida, according to the genomic database GISAID. However, collection dates are not available for all samples.

--------------------------------------

Seasonal Coronaviruses Might Stimulate Cross-Protection Against SARS-CoV-2
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-seasonal-coronaviruses-cross-protection-sars-cov-.html

Greater exposure to seasonal coronaviruses, specifically those responsible for common colds, could help explain why most of sub-Saharan Africa has endured less severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks than many other areas of the world, according to research led by the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.

To test the hypothesis, the researchers examined whether pre-pandemic blood plasma samples—some taken from residents of the United States, others from two countries in sub-Saharan Africa—showed signs of recognizing SARS-CoV-2 antigens. They found that less than 3% of the American samples contained infection-fighting antibodies that reacted with the SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Conversely, 19% and 14% of samples from the respective sub-Saharan countries exhibited a response to SARS-CoV-2, commonly known as the novel coronavirus.

Most of the sub-Saharan plasma samples that reacted with SARS-CoV-2 antigens also reacted with seasonal, common cold-inducing coronaviruses. Proteins from one of those seasonal coronaviruses were found in 92% of the reactive sub-Saharan samples, and proteins from another appeared in 50% of the samples.

Collectively, the findings indicate that prior exposure to the seasonal coronaviruses generated immune responses that could also be providing some protection against SARS-CoV-2, the researchers said. If so, that cross-protection might help account for the surprisingly low infection and mortality rates reported in sub-Saharan Africa to date. The region's history of epidemics, stemming in part from relatively limited health care resources and hygienic infrastructure, initially led many virologists and epidemiologists to fear that sub-Saharan Africa would be hit especially hard by SARS-CoV-2.

The team's experiments also revealed that most of the responsive antibodies in the sub-Saharan samples targeted not the now-famous spike protein, which protrudes from SARS-CoV-2 and binds to host cells, but instead a so-called nucleocapsid protein that encases the genetic material at its core. That would make sense, Wood said, given that spike proteins tend to feature more variation within a virus family—variation that forces an immune system to generate specific antibodies for each member of that family. The relative uniformity of the nucleocapsid makes it more prone to being recognized by a cell-mediated immune response and some cross-reactive antibodies that are actually produced in response to other members of the family—in this case, the seasonal relatives of SARS-CoV-2.

For Yue Tso et al. High prevalence of pre-existing serological cross-reactivity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in sub-Saharan Africa, International Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020)
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)32310-9/fulltext

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10618 on: January 07, 2021, 11:00:44 PM »
Which strain do they have in Brazil for the moment ?

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10619 on: January 07, 2021, 11:10:55 PM »
on CNN .. 55million vaccines stuck @ Pfizer in the USA waiting to be delivered , but nowhere to send them . Meanwhile around the world and USA hundreds die every hour
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10620 on: January 07, 2021, 11:18:28 PM »
At Least Eight US States Have Now Confirmed a Case of the UK Covid-19 Variant
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-07-21/index.html

Officials in Texas and Connecticut have announced that the UK variant of Covid-19 has been identified in their states.

The variant appears to spread more easily, although there's no evidence that it's any more deadly or causes more severe disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Harris County Public Health in Texas said in a statement Thursday the first patient was a male between 30 and 40 with no travel history, which implies the variant has been transmitted locally.

... Later, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont said health officials in his state had identified two cases of the variant, which would bring the count for the US to at least 56 cases. [... 5 miles down the road ...]

“The two individuals are between the ages of 15 and 25 and both reside in New Haven County. Both individuals recently traveled outside Connecticut – one to Ireland and the other to New York State – and both developed symptoms within 3 to 4 days of their return,” Lamont’s office said in a statement.

“Genetic sequencing of the virus has confirmed that the two cases are unrelated. The individuals’ specimens were collected earlier this month and subsequently tested positive.”

... At least eight states have now confirmed a case of the variant. The others are California, Florida, Colorado, Georgia, New York and Pennsylvania.

---------------------------------------------

Pennsylvania Reports First Confirmed Case of COVID-19 Variant
https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/pennsylvania/pa-sees-first-confirmed-case-of-covid-19-variant/article_6a9facbc-50f4-11eb-b603-27b6fe277e38.html

HARRISBURG, Pa. - The new COVID-19 variant first discovered in the UK has made its way to Pennsylvania.

Someone in Dauphin County, which is near Harrisburg, tested positive for the variant, the first confirmed case in Pennsylvania, said the state Department of Health in a news release Thursday.

The person had known international exposure, and suffered mild symptoms, but has since recovered, officials said. Contact tracers have reached out to anyone who was in close contact with the person.

-------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Is Reporting One Covid Death Every Eight Minutes
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-07-21/index.html

... Cases have increased 941% since November 1 and so far, the rate of new cases in January is double what it was in December, according to Ferrer. In the past two months, the positivity rate in LA County has jumped from 3.8% to 21.8%.

Hospitalizations are 10 times higher than they were on November 1, and Health Services Director Christina Ghaly warns that yet another surge is expected within the next two weeks. More than 8,000 people are currently hospitalized, with 20% in intensive care units and 19% on ventilators.

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Patients In Intensive Care In the UK to Receive Arthritis Drugs as Trial Shows Reduction In Mortality
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-07-21/index.html

Results from the government-funded clinical trial — published online on Thursday, but not yet peer-reviewed — showed the drugs, Tocilizumab and Sarilumab, reduced the relative risk of death by 24%, when either were administered to patients within 24 hours of entering intensive care, the Department of Health said in a press release. They also reduced time in hospital by an average of seven to 10 days.

The government will update its guidance on Friday to encourage the use of these drugs for Covid-19 patients in intensive care. The drugs are typically available in UK hospitals.

During the trial, the drugs were administered in addition to a corticosteroid, such as dexamethasone, which is already provided in the standard of care, the press release said. 

Patients receiving the current standard of care alone experienced a mortality rate of 35.8%. This was reduced to 27.3% using tocilizumab or sarilumab, a 24% relative reduction in risk of mortality.

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London "May Run Out of [Hospital] Beds" In Next Few Days, Mayor Says
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-07-21/index.html

London “may run out of [hospital] beds” in the “next few days” due to the surge in Covid-19 cases in the capital, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said on Thursday.

... Khan, when asked by LBC Radio if Covid-19 was “out of control” in London, said: “Yes. This virus is out of control."
He added: "The NHS is on the cusp of being overwhelmed. There has been no time during this pandemic where I’ve been more concerned than I am today.”
Khan implored Londoners to “stay home” and said National Health Service (NHS) workers “are stretched, they are overworked, many of them are suffering trauma that may take years to recover from.”


--------------------------------------------------

English City Set to Run Out of Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine Doses By Friday
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-07-21/index.html

The English city of Birmingham will run out of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine doses on Friday with "no clarity on when further supplies will arrive," local officials warned on Thursday in a letter sent to UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock.

... Birmingham "has not yet been supplied with any AstraZeneca [vaccine] stock." ...  "In addition, it remains unclear who is responsible for overseeing the vaccination programme in Birmingham and whom we should hold to account for progress and delivery," the letter reads.

---------------------------------------

Infection Rates Were Sharply Higher In Counties Where Universities Held Classes In Person.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7001a4.htm?s_cid=mm7001a4_w

Incidence rates in those counties rose more than 50 percent in the first three weeks after classes started, compared with the previous three-week period, according to a new study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. By contrast, infection rates declined in counties without large universities or where large universities held classes remotely last fall, the study said.

... Infection rates went on falling — by an average of 18 percent — where large universities chose to teach remotely, the researchers found, but the rates shot up where in-person instruction was underway.

The findings come as many students who were home for the holidays prepare to return to campus. They will converge on college towns at a time when the virus is surging in many parts of the country, overwhelming hospitals and straining health care services.

---------------------------------------

As Americans were transfixed by the spectacle of the Capitol under siege, the coronavirus continued to sweep across the United States.

Officials reported at least 3,964 new coronavirus deaths in the United States on Wednesday, a new single-day record.

... “Most Americans don’t want to know, don’t want to acknowledge, don’t really want to recognize, and certainly — even as it’s descending upon us — do not appear to understand the dire circumstances that we are facing,” said Dr. Marjorie Bessel, the chief clinical officer at Banner Health, a major hospital network in Arizona.

With an average of 118.3 new cases per 100,000 people, Arizona has become what health officials call the latest “hotspot of the world” because of soaring case loads.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has declined to institute a statewide mask mandate even as the state reports the highest rate of new cases in the US

... And with no good system in place to identify genetic variations of the virus, experts warn, the government will be hard pressed to track the UK & SA variants, leaving health officials in the dark.

-----------------------------------

https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1346518962478190594

JERUSALEM — Israel faces a tightened lockdown this week as officials fear that the more transmissible British variant of the virus is spreading rapidly and its vaccine supplies are running low.

“We are at the height of a global pandemic that is spreading at record speed with the British mutation,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement late Tuesday, justifying the government’s decision to impose a full national lockdown that will shutter most schools and all nonessential workplaces for at least two weeks.

“Every hour we delay, the quicker the virus is spreading, and it will exact a very heavy price,” he added.

---------------------------------------------

Australian State Enters Lockdown After UK Strain Detected
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/07/coronavirus-live-news-england-sees-record-hospitalisations-arizona-is-covid-hot-spot-of-the-world

Australia’s Queensland state enforced a three-day lockdown in Brisbane, the state capital, from Friday evening after a hotel quarantine worker tested positive for the more contagious variant of Covid-19 that emerged in Britain last month.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2021, 11:41:03 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10621 on: January 08, 2021, 12:11:14 AM »
Via TWIV, their year end review podcast #702    Wired Magazine.   Kind of a Barbara McKlintock  deja vu of how sexist and oppressive college and university departments  could be and an early pioneer in mRNA.   Written by David Cox.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/mrna-coronavirus-vaccine-pfizer-biontech

Quote
For decades, Katalin Karikó's work into mRNA therapeutics was overlooked by her colleagues. Now it's at the heart of the two leading coronavirus vaccines

Quote
This was a serious problem, but one Karikó was determined to solve. She recalls spending one Christmas and New Year’s Eve conducting experiments and writing grant applications. But many other scientists were turning away from the field, and her bosses at UPenn felt mRNA had shown itself to be impractical and she was wasting her time. They issued an ultimatum, if she wanted to continue working with mRNA she would lose her prestigious faculty position, and face a substantial pay cut.

”It was particularly horrible as that same week, I had just been diagnosed with cancer,” said Karikó. “I was facing two operations, and my husband, who had gone back to Hungary to pick up his green card, had got stranded there because of some visa issue, meaning he couldn’t come back for six months. I was really struggling, and then they told me this.”

If anyone should ever come upon a nice 10 page monograph on mRNA I would appreciate it.   

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10622 on: January 08, 2021, 12:21:26 AM »
How the Trump-Incited Mob May Have Caused a COVID Superspreader Event
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/capitol-insurrection-was-recipe-for-covid-superspreader-event/

Yesterday's event will only help sustain the current rise in DC and elsewhere. Thousands of Trump's supporters amassed in close proximity to listen to the lame-duck president and others encourage the sedition. Many in the crowd were not wearing masks. And, although they were outside, being huddled in a dense, maskless crowd for a prolonged time certainly creates the opportunity for the pandemic coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, to waft easily among people, infecting some and ensuring the pandemic lives on.

... The pandemic did not pause for those in the District of Columbia on Wednesday. Like many places, Washington has seen an increase in cases and deaths amid winter holidays. During the president's insurrection, the capital reported 316 new cases—a sharp rise from the seven-day rolling average of 86 new cases per day logged on November 1. There were also five new deaths Wednesday, up from an average of one November 1. Overall, the city of more than 700,000 residents has reported a total of nearly 30,500 cases and over 800 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic.

Being outdoors is often seen as inherently safe, but it's only safer. The vast, stirring outdoor air can more easily disperse any virus-toting respiratory droplets that float or shoot out of an infected person's face. That's in contrast to crowded and/or poorly ventilated indoor spaces where there's less chance that droplets will be whisked away, possibly allowing them to build up to higher concentrations, increasing the risk of infection for those in the space. We still don't know the exact amount of virus particles it takes to infect a person, but higher concentrations are absolutely riskier.

Still, being outside does not mean the virus can't spread, particularly when maskless people are packed into a dense, stationary mob. Being outdoors or in a well-ventilated space are but single layers in the multilayered approach necessary to reduce risk of spreading the virus. People, even outdoors, should wear masks, stay physically distanced, avoid crowded areas, and practice good hand hygiene. That certainly wasn't the case in the Trump rally yesterday, just as it hasn't been in previous rallies, which have also been associated with mass spreading of the virus.

Upping the risks further, Trump's supporters openly mocked and rebelled against public health measures and the realities of the pandemic as they gathered in the city during the run-up to Wednesday's events. In a Tuesday protest, a Trump supporter encouraged people to actively try to spread disease, encouraging them to hug people outside their households: "I'm going to give everyone three action steps... turn to the person next to you and give them a hug," a speaker told a crowd. "Someone you don't know... it's a mass-spreader event! It's a mass-spreader event!"

... When hundreds of insurrectionists breached the Capitol building, the heightened risks spread among lawmakers and their staff. As chaos, violence, and ransacking ensued, lawmakers and staff tried to scurry to safety. Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) told CBS News that when she was evacuated—after shots were fired inside the building—she was moved to a packed, undisclosed location with 300 to 400 other evacuees. Her fears then moved from the violence to the coronavirus. "It's what I would call a COVID superspreader event," Wild said.

"About half the people in the room are not wearing masks even though they've been offered surgical masks, they've refused to wear them." She identified the maskless throng as some "people from the Republican delegation... some of the newer members that are freshmen this year are openly flaunting that they will not wear a mask and refusing to put a mask on... It's exactly the kind of situation that we've been told by the medical doctors not to be in."

She added that Congress members were not required to be regularly tested for COVID-19, but testing was available to them. Since yesterday, at least two members of Congress have announced that they have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Kan.) received a positive test Wednesday evening, according to a Thursday tweet from his verified account. Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) also announced that she had tested positive. Steel, who had been sworn into office Sunday, had expressed skepticism about the need for mask mandates.

... Since the pandemic began, dozens of federal lawmakers and hundreds of their staff have contracted the virus, and many more have been exposed and put into quarantine. On December 29, Congressman-elect Luke Letlow (R-La.) died from COVID-19 at the age of 41.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10624 on: January 08, 2021, 12:37:23 AM »
Which strain do they have in Brazil for the moment ?

BRAZIL confirmed its first two cases of British variant, Sao Paulo state's health secretariat said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10625 on: January 08, 2021, 07:17:52 AM »

Seasonal Coronaviruses Might Stimulate Cross-Protection Against SARS-CoV-2
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-seasonal-coronaviruses-cross-protection-sars-cov-.html

Greater exposure to seasonal coronaviruses, specifically those responsible for common colds, could help explain why most of sub-Saharan Africa has endured less severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks than many other areas of the world, according to research led by the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.

To test the hypothesis, the researchers examined whether pre-pandemic blood plasma samples—some taken from residents of the United States, others from two countries in sub-Saharan Africa—showed signs of recognizing SARS-CoV-2 antigens. They found that less than 3% of the American samples contained infection-fighting antibodies that reacted with the SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Conversely, 19% and 14% of samples from the respective sub-Saharan countries exhibited a response to SARS-CoV-2, commonly known as the novel coronavirus.

I don't understand this. Sub-Saharan Africans get the cold more often than Americans? What? Doesn't make sense to me.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10626 on: January 08, 2021, 08:57:52 AM »
If anyone should ever come upon a nice 10 page monograph on mRNA I would appreciate it.   

Would a tweetstorm do?

https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/1339633325116248064


on CNN .. 55million vaccines stuck @ Pfizer in the USA waiting to be delivered, but nowhere to send them . Meanwhile around the world and USA hundreds die every hour

Sauce? This would be adding insult to injury. They have known for a fucking that we needed the vaccines distributed. Fast. They called it operation warp speed.

I would hope that vaccination efforts are limited only by manufacturing processes, not by a distribution that should have been sorted out months ago.

This needs to end before it becomes endemic. Given the news on mutations, the time is running short.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.


gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10628 on: January 08, 2021, 11:48:15 AM »
The UK situation reaches critical...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/the-worst-by-a-cataclysmic-margin-the-race-to-save-the-nhs-from-covid
'The worst by a cataclysmic margin': the race to save the NHS from Covid

As patients wait in ambulances and some hospitals say they can no longer provide high-standard critical care, what’s next?

Quote
....a memo sent by managers at the Royal London hospital in the capital’s East End to staff just before new year. “We are now in disaster medicine mode. We are no longer providing high-standard critical care, because we cannot. While this is far from ideal, it’s the way things are, and the way they have to be for now.”

It added: “Every hospital in north-east London is struggling, some with insufficient oxygen supplies, all with insufficient nursing numbers. Believe it or not, Royal London critical care is coping well relative to some sites.”

.
Quote
...there are far more people in hospital across the UK who are seriously ill with the disease than at the peak of the pandemic last spring. Back then, the NHS was treating 21,000 patients; this week, the total passed 30,000. On Thursday, Sir Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, said 10,000 people had been admitted since Christmas Day.

Quote
Some of the operations being cancelled now are unusual in that they are classed as urgent – that is, they need to be done within 28 days or the patient’s health may suffer, and they may even die. When “call-offs” happen, they usually involve elective surgery, such as a cataract removal or joint replacement. But when urgent operations are involved, that could have very serious consequences. For example, King’s College hospital in London had to call off urgent cancer surgery earlier this week because it had too few intensive care beds in which to put those needing post-op observation.

Quote
“Already trusts are rationing ICU beds. If you have multiple co-morbidities you’re much less likely to be given one and palliative care is considered much earlier than usual. Hospitals in the Midlands, London and Greater Manchester have been doing that for a week now.”

A London GP reported how some of the hospitals she routinely sent patients to had raised the bar for how sick someone with Covid had to be before they got admitted. Previously they would accept patients whose oxygen saturation had fallen to 92% or 93% but – as a temporary response to the unprecedented demand for care – now insisted the person’s levels must be as low as 90% or below.

“I tried to admit a 65-year-old with proven Covid with sats of 90-91% to one hospital,” said the doctor. “But they said there was no point in sending him because they would send him home. This is worrying because patients with sats as low as 92% or 93% need oxygen, which can’t easily be given at home.”

Quote
Ominously, senior doctors and NHS leaders told the Guardian they expected things to get even worse over the coming days and weeks, given the mutant strain of the virus is fast becoming the main strain across the UK.

“The big increase in admissions we’re seeing doesn’t reflect whatever mixing went on over Christmas. Cases linked to that should arrive this weekend,” said one weary hospital boss.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10629 on: January 08, 2021, 11:56:20 AM »
US Suffers More Than 4,000 Deaths In 24 Hours
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

More than 4,000 people died in the US on Thursday, Johns Hopkins University data shows – a world record daily toll, and the first time it has passed 4,000.

In 24 hours, 4,085 Americans died, according to the data, while nearly 275,000 cases were confirmed.

-------------------------------------------------

L.A. Using Coronavirus Test That FDA Warns May Produce False Negatives
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-07/fda-warns-that-curatives-covid-19-test-used-by-the-city-of-l-a-may-be-inaccurate?_amp=true

The coronavirus test being provided daily to tens of thousands of residents in Los Angeles and other parts of California may be producing inaccurate results, according to guidance from federal officials that could raise questions about the accuracy of infection data shaping the pandemic response.

The guidance from the Food and Drug Administration warns healthcare providers and patients that the test made by Curative, a year-old start-up founded in Silicon Valley that supplies the oral swab tests at L.A.’s 10 drive-through testing sites, carries a “risk of false results, particularly false negative results.”

... The conflicting approaches raise new questions about the accuracy of the city’s coronavirus positivity rates, including whether false negatives gave people the erroneous assumption they could ignore public health guidance and gather with others outside their households, contributing to a record-high level of community spread.

------------------------------------------

More Than 132,000 People Currently Hospitalized Across the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/coronavirus-live-updates.html

More than 132,000 people are hospitalized across the U.S. as of Wednesday, according to data from The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project. That’s the highest level of any point during the pandemic.

The country’s hospitalizations have more than doubled since mid-November.



----------------------------------------------

U.S. Reports Record Daily Death Toll
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/a-record-number-of-people-died-from-covid-the-last-two-days-in-the-us-.html

A record number of people died in the U.S. from Covid-19 on Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

A record 3,733 people died from the virus on Tuesday, followed by 3,865 deaths Wednesday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over the past seven days, the U.S. reported an average of 2,686 fatalities every day — a figure second only to the record high set a little over two weeks ago



------------------------------------------

California Virus Deaths Rocket Higher as ICU Space Tightens
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-california-virus-deaths-rocket-higher.html

A surge following Halloween and Thanksgiving produced record hospitalizations and now the most seriously ill of those patients are dying in unprecedented numbers. California health authorities reported Thursday 583 new deaths and a record two-day total of 1,042.

The state has deployed 88 refrigerated trailers, up from 60 a few weeks ago, for use as makeshift morgues, mostly in hard-hit Southern California.

--------------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10630 on: January 08, 2021, 02:23:51 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55574662

I haven't noticed this being posted but there are two new drugs, tocilizumab and sarilumab, that drop fatality rate in ICU by a third. Previous studies found they weren't much use on their own, but this one found really significant benefit on top of dexamethasone when given as well as dexamethasone.

Quote
Lead researcher Prof Anthony Gordon, from Imperial College London, said: "For every 12 patients you treat with these drugs you would expect to save a life. It's a big effect."

Quote
As well as saving more lives, the treatments speed up patients' recovery and reduce the length of time that critically-ill patients need to spend in intensive care by about a week.

No proper publication yet though, so I'm not sure just how firm those numbers are, but there's quite a lot of wiggle room for them to be overoptimistic and there still to be substantial benefit.

Far less widely used than dexamethasone, so I don't know just how fast their manufacture can be scaled up, but cutting stays in ICU by a week per patient would be huge in the UK right now. Staffing is really, really thin. What used to be 1:1 care is now 1 IC nurse plus makeshift support per 3, 4 even 5 patients.

....

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364

Animation from the FT showing this winter's ICU admissions compared to past winters. Its a huge gap, and it represents not just the COVID toll but the amount of other care that has been, and is currently being cancelled.

One of the best ways I've seen of presenting data to show this aspect of why its not just flu.


harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10631 on: January 08, 2021, 02:50:12 PM »
US Suffers More Than 4,000 Deaths In 24 Hours
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

More than 4,000 people died in the US on Thursday, Johns Hopkins University data shows – a world record daily toll, and the first time it has passed 4,000.


When the toll hits 10,000/day will people start to panic, or are Americans so desensitized and complacent with their lives, that no number will ever instill concern?

If the stock market is any indicator, optimism is peaking right now, right along with deaths.

No lockdowns, no masks, peak optimism. 
« Last Edit: January 08, 2021, 02:56:32 PM by harpy »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10632 on: January 08, 2021, 02:56:37 PM »
US Suffers More Than 4,000 Deaths In 24 Hours
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

More than 4,000 people died in the US on Thursday, Johns Hopkins University data shows – a world record daily toll, and the first time it has passed 4,000.


When the toll hits 10,000/day will people start to panic, or are Americans so desensitized and complacent with their lives, that no number will ever instill concern?

If the stock market is any indicator, optimism is peaking right now, right along with deaths.

The stock market is reacting to the fact we are getting rid of Hair Furor and the Georgia elections.

I still think anyone in the market will be shocked by the correction that is coming.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10633 on: January 08, 2021, 03:05:30 PM »
I don't understand this. Sub-Saharan Africans get the cold more often than Americans? What? Doesn't make sense to me.

Why not? Much more contacts over the day.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10634 on: January 08, 2021, 04:05:47 PM »
30 years of antibacterial soap, 2 showers a day and 'don't play in the dirt' - vs - no running water, no soap, and open sewage in the streets can cause a divergence in results.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10635 on: January 08, 2021, 04:13:08 PM »
30 years of antibacterial soap, 2 showers a day and 'don't play in the dirt' - vs - no running water, no soap, and open sewage in the streets can cause a divergence in results.

I agree with this.  Americans are unhealthy people, mostly because of their abnormal lifestyles.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10636 on: January 08, 2021, 04:54:50 PM »
Covid-19: 'Major Incident' Declared by London Mayor Sadiq Khan
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-55588163

The spread of Covid in London is "out of control" according to Sadiq Khan, who has declared a "major incident".

The coronavirus infection rate in London has exceeded 1,000 per 100,000 people, based on the latest figures from Public Health England.

However, the Office for National Statistics recently estimated as many as 1 in 30 Londoners has coronavirus.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/8january2021

Mr Khan told BBC political reporter Karl Mercer that the figure is as high as 1 in 20 in some parts of London.

... A major incident is any emergency that requires the implementation of special arrangements by one or all of the emergency services, the NHS or the local authority.

It means the emergency services and hospitals cannot guarantee their normal level of response.




... Dr Samantha Batt-Rawden, a senior intensive care registrar at Royal London Hospital, tweeted: "We tried. We really tried. NHS staff pleaded with people that Christmas is not worth it. Now one in 30 people in London have Covid and ICUs are overwhelmed. My heart is broken."

The mayor of London's announcement comes after the counties of Sussex and Surrey declared similar major incidents on Thursday.

He said the London Ambulance Service was currently taking up to 8,000 emergency calls a day, compared to 5,500 on a typical busy day.

The London Fire Brigade said more than 100 firefighters had been drafted in to drive ambulances to help cope with the demand.

... Mr Khan is warning that London is "at crisis point".

"If we do not take immediate action now, our NHS could be overwhelmed and more people will die," he said.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2021, 06:52:14 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10637 on: January 08, 2021, 09:48:47 PM »
... oh, swell ...

White House Task Force Says There Could Be a Fast-Spreading "USA Variant" of Coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-08-21/index.html

The US may have its own version of a more transmissible coronavirus that might be helping fuel the already aggressive spread of the virus, the White House coronavirus task force said in its latest report to states this week.

Reports sent by the task force to states dated Jan. 3 warned of the possibility of a “USA variant” of Covid-19.

... “This fall/winter surge has been at nearly twice the rate of rise of cases as the spring and summer surges. This acceleration suggests there may be a USA variant that has evolved here, in addition to the UK variant that is already spreading in our communities and may be 50% more transmissible,”

“Without uniform implementation of effective face masking (two or three ply and well-fitting) and strict social distancing, epidemics could quickly worsen as these variants spread and become predominant.”

... The task force reports also called for the establishment of outpatient monoclonal antibody treatment infusion sites “immediately available to save lives.”

And as the nation struggles to rapidly immunize Americans, the reports said that vaccines must “be put in arms now.”

“Do not delay the rapid immunization of those over 65 and vulnerable to severe disease; recommend creation of high throughput vaccination sites with use of EMT personnel to monitor for potential anaphylaxis and fully utilize nursing students. No vaccines should be in freezers but should instead be put in arms now; active and aggressive immunization in the face of this surge would save lives,” the reports said.

---------------------------------------------

FDA Warns New Coronavirus Mutations Can Cause False Negative Covid-19 Test Results In Some Cases
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/letters-health-care-providers/genetic-variants-sars-cov-2-may-lead-false-negative-results-molecular-tests-detection-sars-cov-2

The US Food and Drug Administration has alerted health care providers and labs that genetic variants of the novel coronavirus — including an emerging variant first detected in the United Kingdom called B.1.1.7 — could lead to false negative Covid-19 test results.

The FDA noted in a news release on Friday afternoon that false negative results can occur with any molecular test for the detection of the virus if a mutation has occurred in the part of the virus's genome that the test examines.

Since the TaqPath and Linea Covid-19 tests detect multiple genetic targets, the overall test sensitivity should not be impacted, the FDA noted. However, if certain patterns emerge in individual results from those tests, labs might consider further genetic sequencing of specimens. That “may help with early identification of new variants in patients to reduce further spread of infection,” the FDA said in its letter to labs and health care providers, noting that the B.1.1.7 variant has been associated with an increased risk of transmission.

The agency notes three Covid-19 tests authorized in the United States may be impacted by genetic variants — MesaBiotech Accula, TaqPath Covid-19 Combo Kit and Linea Covid-19 Assay Kit — "but the impact does not appear to be significant.”

-----------------------------------------

White House Coronavirus Task Force No Longer Proactively Sending Reports to States
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/23/politics/white-house-coronavirus-state-reports/index.html

The White House coronavirus task force has informed states that it will no longer proactively send its weekly state reports with tailored data and recommendations, according to multiple state officials. Instead, states will need to request the reports each week.

This new policy, which one official said came via email, is a departure from the previous process and removes a layer of transparency and vital information amid a raging pandemic.

Over the past several months, the language in the reports and each states' respective recommendations have become increasingly dire.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNN's request for information on why the procedure for states has changed.

One state official told CNN they were informed of the new policy in an email.

Another state official told CNN that the policy went into effect last week, but their state was only informed of the new process this Tuesday. An email sent to the state from the Department of Health and Human Services said the reports would be "available by request" moving forward, and that states could put in the weekly request to the White House via email. There was no justification given for the change in policy.

---------------------------------------------

Rise in Covid-19 Deaths In California Prompts Deployment of Temporary Morgues

As California continues to make and break Covid-19 records, the state’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) is increasing storage capacity for victims’ bodies and enacting the State Multi-Casualty Plan.

Cal OES has distributed 88 refrigerated trailers, 10 leased to serve as temporary morgues and designed as such, and sent to Imperial, Los Angeles, Monterey, San Bernardino, and Sonoma counties. Another 78 were donated and sent to other hospitals and counties across the state. Those trailers will be outfitted with appropriate shelving as they were not originally designed to be used as morgues.

Cal OES will set up a temporary morgue in the parking lot at the L.A. County coroner facility to address the largest surge in fatalities. The overflow morgue comprises at least 10 trailers supplied by both the county and state, and refrigerated storage containers.

----------------------------------------

Army and Air Force Medical Teams Arrive to Help With California Covid-19 Surge

As Covid-19 patients continue to flood Southern California hospitals, a team of 20 medical providers from the US Army and Air Force have arrived to help stanch the surge in Riverside County.

The military medical team, which consists of active duty physician assistants, nurses and respiratory care practitioners arrived Thursday to assist the Riverside University Health System (RUHS). The 439-bed hospital normally averages about 350 patients each day. An additional 121 beds have been added to accommodate the influx of patients, according to RUHS CEO Jennifer Cruikshank.

--------------------------------------------

Yeast Infection In Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients May be Linked to PPE Re-Use, CDC Study Finds

A worrying fungal infection seen among hospitalized Covid-19 patients in Florida may have been caused by the reuse of personal protective equipment, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researchers said Friday.

They said four cases of Candida auris were probably spread because staff did not follow protocols for preventing spread of the highly infectious yeast. Hospital staff around the country have complained that PPE shortages have forced them to re-use equipment.

Candida auris is a multidrug-resistant yeast that has caused many worrying outbreaks in healthcare settings. It can infect people without causing symptoms and it also can persist on surfaces, so regular sanitation is important in keeping outbreaks at bay.

Of the four patients infected with Candida auris, three had bloodstream infections and one had a urinary tract infection. In addition, 35 other Covid-19 patients tested positive for C. auris colonization, representing 52% of the Covid-19 patients at the time.

... Once the hospital improved cleaning practices, took equipment out of hallways, and stopped improper PPE practices, the hospital found no further transmission of Candida auris.

------------------------------------------

New York City Reports a More Than 9% Covid-19 Positivity Rate

Covid-19 continues to surge in New York City as health officials report nearly 4,000 new confirmed and positive cases and a 9.38% positivity rate on the city's seven-day rolling average, Mayor Bill de Blasio said.

-----------------------------------------

Teachers In Chicago Who Don't Go Back to School May Not Be Paid, Officials Say

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Friday confirmed that Chicago Public Schools (CPS) will resume in-class instruction on Monday despite recent pushback from the Chicago Teachers Union to delay reopening. 

Union leadership has been pushing to delay school reopenings and have proposed inoculating all teachers before a return to the classroom, along with other mitigation measures, CNN has reported.

------------------------------------------

High daily death tolls are putting infrastructure in the Czech Republic under pressure, with the country’s largest crematorium struggling to keep up with overwhelming numbers of pandemic victims, according to the Associated Press.

The US-headquartered news agency reports that the crematorium, in the northeastern city of Ostrava, is receiving more than 100 coffins daily, about double its maximum cremation capacity.

On Thursday, the AP said, cars from funeral companies delivered caskets every few minutes, some with “COVID” written on them.

At the Ostrava crematorium, all three cremation chambers were working round the clock, while storage capacity for caskets has been repeatedly boosted.

By per capita death tolls and infection rates, the Czech Republic is now one of the worst affected countries in the world by the pandemic.

-------------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10638 on: January 08, 2021, 11:06:50 PM »
Within 2 weeks, the protesters in DC will be in the process of spreading the original virus, and all new mutations all around the country as they travel back to their original locations.  No limits on domestic airline travel, people packed in busses.  Crowds of tens of thousands.

The political theatre aside, the entity who benefitted the most was, yet again, the coronavirus.

What I find most entertaining is the fact that the US capital buildings were not de-contaminated.
 The "leaders" went back in the same rooms where the mask-less protesters were spreading the mutated virus.

Amazing, the US shows the world, once again, that it is a 3rd world Bananna republic. 

*laughs in Mandarin* ;D
« Last Edit: January 08, 2021, 11:28:27 PM by harpy »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10639 on: January 08, 2021, 11:30:49 PM »
My guardian heard somewhere that "messy" Aspies like me might get the vaccine early. He is looking into it, although he can't get off hold on the phone. He is good at getting things done, so cross your fingers and toes for me...I am going on 63 and want the vaccine ASAP.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10640 on: January 09, 2021, 02:22:33 PM »
CDC: Asymptomatic Carriers Spread More Than Half of All COVID-19 Cases
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2021/01/07/covid-asymptomatic-spread/

A new model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggests that more than half of all COVID-19 cases are spread by people without symptoms.

An estimated 59% of all coronavirus cases are transmitted by those who are asymptomatic, researchers found. That includes 24% of those who never had symptoms, and 35% of people who didn’t initially have them.

“The findings of this study suggest that the identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19 alone will not control the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2,” the writers of the investigation made clear.

They suggested in the conclusion of their findings that people continue to wear masks and practice social distancing to “reduce risk to their communities.”

“The bottom line is controlling the COVID-19 pandemic really is going to require controlling the silent pandemic of transmission from persons without symptoms,” the CDC’s Jay C. Butler told the Washington Post.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

------------------------------------------

CDC Denies New ‘USA Variant’ Behind Massive COVID Surge
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/09/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

The CDC is backpedaling after the White House Coronavirus Task Force warned states in a January memo that a U.S. COVID-19 variant that’s more easily transmissible may be contributing to the country’s disturbing spike in cases.

In fact, that variant may not exist at all.

“This fall/winter surge has been at nearly twice the rate of rise of cases as the spring and summer surges. This acceleration suggests there may be a USA variant that has evolved here, in addition to the UK variant that is already spreading in our communities and may be 50% more transmissible,” reads the Jan. 3 report obtained by CNN. It also calls for “aggressive mitigation ... to match a much more aggressive virus.”

But The New York Times reports that CDC officials tried to have those “speculative” statements—attributed to Dr. Deborah Birx—removed from the reports, only to be unsuccessful. An agency spokesperson told the paper, “To date, neither researchers nor analysts at C.D.C. have seen the emergence of a particular variant in the United States.”

... The task force's report, according to CNBC, offered little information about how long the new US strain described might have been circulating, nor what mutations were included in its genetic profile.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/health/US-variant-covid-false.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10641 on: January 09, 2021, 04:23:21 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

One wonders how high can daily new cases go until either sufficient numbers are vaccinated and or the virus starts to burn itself out through lack of fuel.

World Data. Daily new cases were over 800,000 for the last 3 days. The 7 day average of daily deaths well into record terroitory at 12,330.

USA Data Daily new cases were over 300,000 for the first time on 8 January. Hardly a surprise that daily deaths over 4,000 the last 3 days.

One must assume that the daily death toll is going to rise for some time to come.
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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10642 on: January 09, 2021, 06:28:16 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK Data
The UK breaks two milestones today - passes the 3 million cases and 80 thousand dead marks.

Looks like in a couple of days will bereak the record daily death 7 day average of just under 950 back in mid-April.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10643 on: January 09, 2021, 09:10:02 PM »
L.A. County Christmas Coronavirus Surge Worsening; Coming Days Will Be Critical
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-09/la-county-christmas-california-coronavirus-cases-covid19-surge?_amp=true

On Thursday and Friday, L.A. County reported 18,764 coronavirus cases and 17,827 cases, respectively — significantly above the average of about 14,000 new cases a day over the last week. ... “It had gradually started earlier in the week, but [definitely] here in the last day or two.”

About 1 in 5 coronavirus tests performed daily in Los Angeles County is coming back positive

... On Friday, there were 318 COVID-19 deaths reported in L.A. County — the largest single-day tally on record, breaking the previous single-day record of 291, logged on New Year’s Eve.

The number of people dying from COVID-19 daily is now exceeding the average number of deaths in L.A. County for all other causes, including heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, car crashes, suicides and homicides, which is about 170 deaths a day.

What is particularly frightening about the coronavirus, Simon said, is how unpredictable it can be in who it hits hard. Although earlier in the pandemic, only 7% of COVID-19 deaths in L.A. County occurred among people with no underlying medical conditions, now 14% of all deaths have occurred among people with no medical conditions.

The leader of a trade group representing California hospitals said Friday that the peak of the current wave is expected to swamp the state’s healthcare system starting in about a week. ... “we do anticipate the worst of this is to hit in another week or 10 days, and may continue into the month of February,” said Carmela Coyle, president and chief executive of the California Hospital Assn.

--------------------------------------------

U.K.
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-55602828



... Dr Justin Varney, director of public health in Birmingham, said he was "very worried" about the situation in the city, where hospital bosses have warned they do not have enough intensive care nurses to deal with the growing case load.

He warned that the NHS had still not seen the impact of the rise in cases following the relaxation of restrictions over Christmas and added: "It is going to get a lot, lot worse unless we really get this under control".
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10644 on: January 09, 2021, 09:20:09 PM »
Is the CFR going down any? Doesn't seem to to me, if I read the above right.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10645 on: January 10, 2021, 02:03:22 PM »
Confirmed Reinfection with B.1.1.7
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab014/6076528
  • Guy has antibodies from mild infection 8 months ago.
  • Recent sera test shows antibodies were maintained
  • Guy gets reinfected, this time with new variant, B117
  • Much more severe disease 2nd time
Quote
"In this case the initial illness was mild, and the reinfection with the new variant was critical/life-threatening ...Rapid work on learning about immune, vaccine and diagnostic escape is needed, as are data on severity of illness caused by VOC- 202012/01."
  • Patient: 78 year old man (hemodialysis patient), positive PCR on 02/04/20. (Mild illness, fever only, uneventful recovery).
  • Initial Ct ~26.
  • Routinely screened between 05/05/20 - 01/12/20, all negative (22 tests).
  • IgG/IgM detectable on 6 occasions between 04/06/20 - 13/11/20 with no evidence of antibody waning.
  • 14/12/20 positive PCR (Ct ~28)
  • Patient presented with 3 day history of shortness of breath. Brought in by ambulance, severe hypoxia leading to intubation.
  • Whole genome sequencing of April/December samples confirms reinfection.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10646 on: January 10, 2021, 02:16:02 PM »
B117 is the UK strain.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10647 on: January 10, 2021, 02:39:09 PM »
After 8 months, I believe that it could also have occurred with any other strain. There have been many examples of reinfections.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10648 on: January 10, 2021, 03:33:06 PM »
After 8 months, I believe that it could also have occurred with any other strain. There have been many examples of reinfections.


Many examples? I've read of a few documented cases but I do not think this is that common.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10649 on: January 10, 2021, 04:11:40 PM »
Haemorrhaging of the Nation’s Health Service Has Now Started
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/nhs-hospitals-really-brink/amp/

In London, you would be ill-advised to climb a stepladder, let alone get on a motorbike given the level of demand in the capital’s hospitals.

For category three admissions - those that are urgent, but not immediately life-threatening - the wait for a hospital bed now stretches to 30 hours, says the city’s ambulance service.

More worrying, national data released on Friday by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (INARC), shows ICU admissions for heart attack and stroke have fallen sharply in recent weeks, suggesting many are not getting the help they require.

“It's implausible to think that these have been misclassified as Covid as the symptoms are so clear, particularly in an ICU setting”, says the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group. “The concern is that people are failing to present, as happened in April”.

A drowning person closes off blood oxygen supplies to their extremities in a bid to survive, and so it is with health systems that are struggling to cope.

Although there has been no national edict as there was last Spring, large parts of the NHS in London and the south-east are now closing their doors to regular business. In London, where the mayor declared a “major incident” on Friday, hundreds of cancer operations have already been cancelled.

Lifeguards learn that drowning swimmers seldom shout or wave their arms. Their energies are focused on trying to stay afloat.

It was a phenomenon missed by an ignorant crowd who, in the early hours of New Year’s day, gathered outside St Thomas’ Hospital in London shouting "Covid is a hoax". Inside hundreds of Covid patients were “sick and dying”, noted Matthew Lee, a young doctor coming off his shift.

These and other so-called “Covid sceptics” are the equivalents of those who stormed the US Senate on Wednesday; ordinary, if weak, people who have surrendered their cognitive powers to the opium of conspiracy theory and disappeared down its wormhole.

Last week they sparked further anger among NHS leaders and staff by circulating images of empty hospital corridors on social media, claiming them as “evidence” that the crisis was being overegged.

The reason parts of many hospitals are empty is explained by the crisis itself. Outpatient and visiting areas are closed, while many corridors are being used as “firebreaks” to stop the spread of the virus. In the same vein, patients are being held in car parks at many hospitals.

Circulating pictures of empty hospital spaces was like noting the corridors of a football stadium were empty during “extra time in the World Cup final”, said Prof Goddard. “All the action is on the field and in the stands, where it needs to be.”

Another myth doing the rounds is the idea that hospital admissions are no worse than during a normal winter. But this too is nonsense.

Despite flu having all but been killed off and trauma cases resulting from accidents being greatly subdued by lockdowns, the number of adults in critical care in hospitals in England stands far above historic levels.

The first three days of 2021 saw the number of patients in critical care in English hospitals soar to unprecedented levels, with almost 4,000 patients in critical care.

.. the crunch will only really come if an entire NHS region - of which there are just seven - became overwhelmed.

“As long as a region doesn't fall over, then that means individual hospitals and even systems can help each other out. But when you get to regions it is much harder to see how that would work”.

He added: “The region that I'm most worried about is the South West. Covid cases are up 33 per cent on a week ago and that rate of growth is nearly double what it was a week ago. The East of England region is also growing fast.

“London, on the other hand, is still going up but it is slowing. It’s going to be very bloody but the London region as a whole may just about get away with it”.

-----------------------------------------------



More than 80,000 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test since the start of the pandemic, official figures have shown.

A further 1,035 deaths in the UK were reported on Saturday, taking the total by that measure to 80,868.

The number of daily cases of people who tested positive for coronavirus increased by 59,937.

The number of infections recorded in the UK has now been above the 50,000 mark for 12 consecutive days.

Higher cases inevitably mean more hospitalisations and more deaths.

The most recent figures show that, on average, 894 people per day are now dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test, up from 438 at the start of December.

The spike in cases since Christmas means that figure is almost certain to get worse before the most recent lockdown measures can start to have any affect.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

------------------------------------------------

‘A Mass Fatality Event’: California Struggles With Backlog of Bodies of COVID-19 Victims
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-09/with-hospital-morgues-overwhelmed-by-bodies-coroner-begins-storing-bodies-as-covid-deaths-surge?_amp=true


A dozen refrigerated containers brought in to store the bodies of COVID-19 victims are parked at the Los Angeles County coroner’s complex on Thursday

... The Los Angeles County coroner’s office is accelerating efforts to temporarily store corpses as the local death toll hits record levels.

This week, six members of the California National Guard arrived to assist county workers in transferring bodies from hospital morgues to 12 refrigerated storage units parked at the coroner’s office, said Sarah Ardalani, spokeswoman for the office. Additional helpers from the National Guard are expected to come next week.

Last spring, the coroner’s office had anticipated a surge in the dead and at least quadrupled its storage capacity to at least 2,000 bodies by bringing in the 12 refrigerated trailers, according to Ardalani. There are also additional trailers that can each hold about 25 bodies each.

As of Monday, the coroner’s office was holding 757 bodies.
At the end of November, the beginning of the most recent COVID-19 surge, the containers held only about 60 bodies.

Then the pace of fatalities began rising. In early December, about 30 people a day were dying; by Friday, the seven-day average was about 190 people a day.

More than 4,200 COVID-19 deaths have been reported since Dec. 1, an astonishing number in just a matter of weeks. The cumulative number of dead in L.A. County from the disease is 11,872.

In just the last four days alone, an average of 250 COVID-19 deaths a day have been reported in L.A. County. That’s higher than the average number of daily deaths from all other causes combined, including heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, car crashes, suicides and homicides, which is about 170.

... How much extra space the county will ultimately need depends on how quickly funeral homes and mortuaries can process bodies, Vohra said.

-------------------------------------------------

Coming to a Black Market Near You: Covid-19 Vaccine
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1253504

The much-criticized rollout by the Trump administration has laid the groundwork for a scenario in which the rich and the politically connected use their money and power to cut in line and get vaccinated before everyone else, experts are warning.

There have been reports in Miami of big hospital donors getting the first crack at the vaccine and in New York of tycoons flying their friends down to Florida to get inoculated with doses earmarked for a retirement home.

And in Colorado, some teachers are crying foul after nurses and educators in wealthier public school districts and private schools got inoculated first.

Arthur Caplan of New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine and one of the nation’s top bio-ethicists said the lament will likely be heard a lot more as the divide grows between vaccine haves and vaccine have-nots.

“We’re hearing about some politicians, some trustees of big hospitals and others getting shots ahead of health care workers and elderly people,” Caplan said. “I’m also hearing that some [drug manufacturing and distribution] companies are saying that as soon as the government contracts are filled, they’re going to make getting vaccines for themselves a priority.”

... “Anything that’s seen as life-saving, life-preserving and that’s in short supply creates black markets,” Caplan said

Scarcity helped turn toilet paper and masks into gold early in the pandemic, and it’s likely to do the same for vaccines, making them especially attractive to thieves and foreign copycat artists, other experts said.

"The danger is there is an already existing market for unregulated drugs," said Michael Einhorn, president of medical supplier Dealmed. "And the issue is that products will be imported from foreign countries that may not have as strict regulations as the United States — where product can be diverted, sold on the side and imported to the United States."

“The vaccine is likely to have a high ‘street value’, making government supplies an attractive target for theft and diversion unless adequate safeguards are built into supply chains,” Cushing wrote.

"There have been reports of substandard or falsified vaccines already being made in India, and also falsified hand-sanitizers in the U.S.A. appearing throughout the course of the pandemic," he said.

... “I’d argue that much of the planning for distribution in the U.S. has been done too late in the day, and the lack of guidelines, and clear eligibility criteria for receipt of vaccines are probably the root cause of many of the issues being faced in the U.S. at the moment," he added. "And subsequently this lack of planning gives rise to opportunities for individuals to jump the queue, and to exploit their position to get vaccines ahead of others."

Dr. Sadiya Khan, an epidemiologist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine, agreed and added that the lack of a coherent vaccine distribution plan is clear evidence the federal government did not learn from its failure to ramp up testing as a means of slowing the spread of the virus.

“The absence of any federal infrastructure across counties and states is leading to an unmitigated disaster in addition to inefficient distribution,” Khan said. “Vaccine distribution is the Groundhog Day of what Covid-19 testing was in the beginning of the pandemic. These considerable delays are likely to lead to more hospitalizations and deaths that could be preventable.” ...

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late