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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 594851 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10650 on: January 10, 2021, 04:11:40 PM »
Haemorrhaging of the Nation’s Health Service Has Now Started
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/nhs-hospitals-really-brink/amp/

In London, you would be ill-advised to climb a stepladder, let alone get on a motorbike given the level of demand in the capital’s hospitals.

For category three admissions - those that are urgent, but not immediately life-threatening - the wait for a hospital bed now stretches to 30 hours, says the city’s ambulance service.

More worrying, national data released on Friday by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (INARC), shows ICU admissions for heart attack and stroke have fallen sharply in recent weeks, suggesting many are not getting the help they require.

“It's implausible to think that these have been misclassified as Covid as the symptoms are so clear, particularly in an ICU setting”, says the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group. “The concern is that people are failing to present, as happened in April”.

A drowning person closes off blood oxygen supplies to their extremities in a bid to survive, and so it is with health systems that are struggling to cope.

Although there has been no national edict as there was last Spring, large parts of the NHS in London and the south-east are now closing their doors to regular business. In London, where the mayor declared a “major incident” on Friday, hundreds of cancer operations have already been cancelled.

Lifeguards learn that drowning swimmers seldom shout or wave their arms. Their energies are focused on trying to stay afloat.

It was a phenomenon missed by an ignorant crowd who, in the early hours of New Year’s day, gathered outside St Thomas’ Hospital in London shouting "Covid is a hoax". Inside hundreds of Covid patients were “sick and dying”, noted Matthew Lee, a young doctor coming off his shift.

These and other so-called “Covid sceptics” are the equivalents of those who stormed the US Senate on Wednesday; ordinary, if weak, people who have surrendered their cognitive powers to the opium of conspiracy theory and disappeared down its wormhole.

Last week they sparked further anger among NHS leaders and staff by circulating images of empty hospital corridors on social media, claiming them as “evidence” that the crisis was being overegged.

The reason parts of many hospitals are empty is explained by the crisis itself. Outpatient and visiting areas are closed, while many corridors are being used as “firebreaks” to stop the spread of the virus. In the same vein, patients are being held in car parks at many hospitals.

Circulating pictures of empty hospital spaces was like noting the corridors of a football stadium were empty during “extra time in the World Cup final”, said Prof Goddard. “All the action is on the field and in the stands, where it needs to be.”

Another myth doing the rounds is the idea that hospital admissions are no worse than during a normal winter. But this too is nonsense.

Despite flu having all but been killed off and trauma cases resulting from accidents being greatly subdued by lockdowns, the number of adults in critical care in hospitals in England stands far above historic levels.

The first three days of 2021 saw the number of patients in critical care in English hospitals soar to unprecedented levels, with almost 4,000 patients in critical care.

.. the crunch will only really come if an entire NHS region - of which there are just seven - became overwhelmed.

“As long as a region doesn't fall over, then that means individual hospitals and even systems can help each other out. But when you get to regions it is much harder to see how that would work”.

He added: “The region that I'm most worried about is the South West. Covid cases are up 33 per cent on a week ago and that rate of growth is nearly double what it was a week ago. The East of England region is also growing fast.

“London, on the other hand, is still going up but it is slowing. It’s going to be very bloody but the London region as a whole may just about get away with it”.

-----------------------------------------------



More than 80,000 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test since the start of the pandemic, official figures have shown.

A further 1,035 deaths in the UK were reported on Saturday, taking the total by that measure to 80,868.

The number of daily cases of people who tested positive for coronavirus increased by 59,937.

The number of infections recorded in the UK has now been above the 50,000 mark for 12 consecutive days.

Higher cases inevitably mean more hospitalisations and more deaths.

The most recent figures show that, on average, 894 people per day are now dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test, up from 438 at the start of December.

The spike in cases since Christmas means that figure is almost certain to get worse before the most recent lockdown measures can start to have any affect.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

------------------------------------------------

‘A Mass Fatality Event’: California Struggles With Backlog of Bodies of COVID-19 Victims
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-09/with-hospital-morgues-overwhelmed-by-bodies-coroner-begins-storing-bodies-as-covid-deaths-surge?_amp=true


A dozen refrigerated containers brought in to store the bodies of COVID-19 victims are parked at the Los Angeles County coroner’s complex on Thursday

... The Los Angeles County coroner’s office is accelerating efforts to temporarily store corpses as the local death toll hits record levels.

This week, six members of the California National Guard arrived to assist county workers in transferring bodies from hospital morgues to 12 refrigerated storage units parked at the coroner’s office, said Sarah Ardalani, spokeswoman for the office. Additional helpers from the National Guard are expected to come next week.

Last spring, the coroner’s office had anticipated a surge in the dead and at least quadrupled its storage capacity to at least 2,000 bodies by bringing in the 12 refrigerated trailers, according to Ardalani. There are also additional trailers that can each hold about 25 bodies each.

As of Monday, the coroner’s office was holding 757 bodies.
At the end of November, the beginning of the most recent COVID-19 surge, the containers held only about 60 bodies.

Then the pace of fatalities began rising. In early December, about 30 people a day were dying; by Friday, the seven-day average was about 190 people a day.

More than 4,200 COVID-19 deaths have been reported since Dec. 1, an astonishing number in just a matter of weeks. The cumulative number of dead in L.A. County from the disease is 11,872.

In just the last four days alone, an average of 250 COVID-19 deaths a day have been reported in L.A. County. That’s higher than the average number of daily deaths from all other causes combined, including heart disease, cancer, stroke, diabetes, car crashes, suicides and homicides, which is about 170.

... How much extra space the county will ultimately need depends on how quickly funeral homes and mortuaries can process bodies, Vohra said.

-------------------------------------------------

Coming to a Black Market Near You: Covid-19 Vaccine
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1253504

The much-criticized rollout by the Trump administration has laid the groundwork for a scenario in which the rich and the politically connected use their money and power to cut in line and get vaccinated before everyone else, experts are warning.

There have been reports in Miami of big hospital donors getting the first crack at the vaccine and in New York of tycoons flying their friends down to Florida to get inoculated with doses earmarked for a retirement home.

And in Colorado, some teachers are crying foul after nurses and educators in wealthier public school districts and private schools got inoculated first.

Arthur Caplan of New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine and one of the nation’s top bio-ethicists said the lament will likely be heard a lot more as the divide grows between vaccine haves and vaccine have-nots.

“We’re hearing about some politicians, some trustees of big hospitals and others getting shots ahead of health care workers and elderly people,” Caplan said. “I’m also hearing that some [drug manufacturing and distribution] companies are saying that as soon as the government contracts are filled, they’re going to make getting vaccines for themselves a priority.”

... “Anything that’s seen as life-saving, life-preserving and that’s in short supply creates black markets,” Caplan said

Scarcity helped turn toilet paper and masks into gold early in the pandemic, and it’s likely to do the same for vaccines, making them especially attractive to thieves and foreign copycat artists, other experts said.

"The danger is there is an already existing market for unregulated drugs," said Michael Einhorn, president of medical supplier Dealmed. "And the issue is that products will be imported from foreign countries that may not have as strict regulations as the United States — where product can be diverted, sold on the side and imported to the United States."

“The vaccine is likely to have a high ‘street value’, making government supplies an attractive target for theft and diversion unless adequate safeguards are built into supply chains,” Cushing wrote.

"There have been reports of substandard or falsified vaccines already being made in India, and also falsified hand-sanitizers in the U.S.A. appearing throughout the course of the pandemic," he said.

... “I’d argue that much of the planning for distribution in the U.S. has been done too late in the day, and the lack of guidelines, and clear eligibility criteria for receipt of vaccines are probably the root cause of many of the issues being faced in the U.S. at the moment," he added. "And subsequently this lack of planning gives rise to opportunities for individuals to jump the queue, and to exploit their position to get vaccines ahead of others."

Dr. Sadiya Khan, an epidemiologist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine, agreed and added that the lack of a coherent vaccine distribution plan is clear evidence the federal government did not learn from its failure to ramp up testing as a means of slowing the spread of the virus.

“The absence of any federal infrastructure across counties and states is leading to an unmitigated disaster in addition to inefficient distribution,” Khan said. “Vaccine distribution is the Groundhog Day of what Covid-19 testing was in the beginning of the pandemic. These considerable delays are likely to lead to more hospitalizations and deaths that could be preventable.” ...

------------------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10651 on: January 10, 2021, 04:14:33 PM »
After 8 months, I believe that it could also have occurred with any other strain. There have been many examples of reinfections.


Many examples? I've read of a few documented cases but I do not think this is that common.

https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1321078948822994944 dated 27 Oct 2020
Quote
Note that the “dozen” (actually over 30 I think) is those that have been proven via genome analysis of both infections which is something that just won’t happen under normal medical care. It’s a safe bet that reinfection is massively more common than that number suggests.


John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10652 on: January 10, 2021, 05:12:16 PM »
Confirmed Reinfection with B.1.1.7
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab014/6076528
  • Guy has antibodies from mild infection 8 months ago.
  • Recent sera test shows antibodies were maintained
  • Guy gets reinfected, this time with new variant, B117
  • Much more severe disease 2nd time
Quote
"In this case the initial illness was mild, and the reinfection with the new variant was critical/life-threatening ...Rapid work on learning about immune, vaccine and diagnostic escape is needed, as are data on severity of illness caused by VOC- 202012/01."
  • Patient: 78 year old man (hemodialysis patient), positive PCR on 02/04/20. (Mild illness, fever only, uneventful recovery).
  • Initial Ct ~26.
  • Routinely screened between 05/05/20 - 01/12/20, all negative (22 tests).
  • IgG/IgM detectable on 6 occasions between 04/06/20 - 13/11/20 with no evidence of antibody waning.
  • 14/12/20 positive PCR (Ct ~28)
  • Patient presented with 3 day history of shortness of breath. Brought in by ambulance, severe hypoxia leading to intubation.
  • Whole genome sequencing of April/December samples confirms reinfection.

Whoa!
30pt font size really called our attention, didn’t it?

We are talking about one reinfection.

There are about 10 to 100 reinfections documented so far out of tens of millions of infections. You do note the factor of one million, don’t you? That means naturally acquired immunity efficacy is about 99.99999% while the best vaccine so far has an estimated efficacy of 95%.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10653 on: January 10, 2021, 06:08:35 PM »
I don't think all reinfection are well documented. I don't even think that the WHO asks anything about it. It doesn't appear in their reports :
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20210105_weekly_epi_update_21.pdf?sfvrsn=15359201_12&download=true

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10654 on: January 10, 2021, 07:42:53 PM »
I don't think all reinfection are well documented. I don't even think that the WHO asks anything about it. It doesn't appear in their reports :
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20210105_weekly_epi_update_21.pdf?sfvrsn=15359201_12&download=true

Not even straight cases are well documented. They were underreported by a factor of ten or so during the first wave, and many infections are still not being reported.

What is clear is that there is a huge disproportion between anecdotal or documented reinfections, and first-time infections. Nothing indicates that naturally acquired immunity is not extremely efficacious, at least for a period of ten months. If reinfections start to pop up in big numbers —and health professionals do notice— with old or new strains, we are f****d-up, but until then, spare me the alarms.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10655 on: January 10, 2021, 07:45:16 PM »
I don't think all reinfection are well documented. I don't even think that the WHO asks anything about it. It doesn't appear in their reports :
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20210105_weekly_epi_update_21.pdf?sfvrsn=15359201_12&download=true

Not even cases are well documented. They were underreported by a factor of ten or so during the first wave, and many cases are still not reported.

What is clear is that there is a huge disproportion between anecdotal/well documented reinfections and single infections. Nothing indicates that naturally acquired immunity is not extremely efficacious, at least for a period of ten months. If reinfections start to pop up in big numbers —and health professionals do notice— with old or new strains, we are f****d-up, but until then, spare me the alarms.

So your preference is to not worry about something until it is a big problem.... and THEN you do something about it.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10656 on: January 10, 2021, 08:50:58 PM »
I don't think we can do any valid statistics right now. The number of people healed since more than 6 months is too low, and 6 months seems to be the minimum immunity. At the beginning we had a few fast reinfections, but it could have been positive people who had a false negative.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10657 on: January 10, 2021, 09:03:18 PM »
New Covid Variant From Brazil Detected In Japan
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-variant/new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-travellers-from-brazil-japan-government-idUSKBN29F08R

A new coronavirus variant has been detected in four travellers from Brazil’s Amazonas state, Japan’s health ministry has said, in the latest recorded instance of the virus evolving, Reuters reports.

A ministry official said studies were underway into the efficacy of vaccines against the new variant, which differs from highly-infectious variants first found in Britain and South Africa that have driven a surge in cases.

Brazil’s Health Ministry said it has been notified by Japan’s authorities that the new variant has 12 mutations, and one of them has already been identified also in the variants found in the United Kingdom and in South Africa. “It implies in a potential higher virus infectiousness,” it said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10658 on: January 10, 2021, 09:19:57 PM »
I don't think we can do any valid statistics right now. The number of people healed since more than 6 months is too low, and 6 months seems to be the minimum immunity. At the beginning we had a few fast reinfections, but it could have been positive people who had a false negative.

Depends how severe the infection was and how old the patient was. Tracking antibodies over the summer in the UK found no measurable drop in younger people that had a severe enough infection to know they had it, but they not only dropped fast, they were no longer detectable in about half of older people with milder infections after 3 months. Not a particularly rigorous study, so the numbers are rough, but there's clearly a wide spread in how long immunity is maintained.
Its reasonable for someone younger that had a bad dose in April to be pretty sure they won't get another now, but an older person that got off lightly in the first wave is quite likely to be susceptible again now.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10659 on: January 10, 2021, 10:26:29 PM »
It would not, perhaps even should not, surprise me if this airborne respiratory coronavirus behaves like others which infect humans. The four coronavirus that are responsible for around 30% of all common colds can infect a person multiple times throughout their lifetime.

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10660 on: January 11, 2021, 04:30:44 AM »
TWIV (The week in virology) podcast might be an acquired taste.   It starts slow and blah blah and can meander and the end drags on sometimes.   Recent one #705 was with the Colorado State Emily Travanty, PhD Supervisor, Public Health Microbiology and Serology Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.   The lab that got the first usOFa variant.   

It was awesome.   Back and forth, rapid fire  quality information and she was fantastic at dealing with some of the sideways  left field , left brain questions that popped up. 

For linux   (Everyone has an updated version of youtube-dl  - eh?)
Code: [Select]
youtube-dl "https://youtu.be/yYIDr9mwfAQ"
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/


John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10661 on: January 11, 2021, 12:54:14 PM »

So your preference is to not worry about something until it is a big problem.... and THEN you do something about it.

Rodius, it seems we have started off with the wrong foot. Let me try to restart.

My name is John, I am from the USA, and have opinions of my own.

Your (user)name is Rodius, from Australia, and you have opinions of your own.

Please to meet you.


John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10662 on: January 11, 2021, 01:08:45 PM »
I don't think all reinfection are well documented. I don't even think that the WHO asks anything about it. It doesn't appear in their reports :
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20210105_weekly_epi_update_21.pdf?sfvrsn=15359201_12&download=true

Not even cases are well documented. They were underreported by a factor of ten or so during the first wave, and many cases are still not reported.

What is clear is that there is a huge disproportion between anecdotal/well documented reinfections and single infections. Nothing indicates that naturally acquired immunity is not extremely efficacious, at least for a period of ten months. If reinfections start to pop up in big numbers —and health professionals do notice— with old or new strains, we are f****d-up, but until then, spare me the alarms.

So your preference is to not worry about something until it is a big problem.... and THEN you do something about it.

And no, that's not my position, but I don't welcome unnecessary hysteria

Of course I am concerned with the possibility of the virus mutating, reinfecting, and becoming endemic. Even more now, when infections are nearing a million per day globally. That's a lot of viruses infecting a lot of people, a lot of increased chances of mutations!

The sooner vaccines are distributed and infections diminish, the less chances for virus mutations.

Vaccine manufacturers also have said that they are capable to develop and produce polyvalent vaccines as well, targeting several SARS-CoV-2 strains, in relatively short time.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10663 on: January 11, 2021, 01:40:12 PM »
Thanks for crossing your fingers and toes, people...I am on the Summit County list for vaccination. Now I just have to wait for my phone call.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10664 on: January 11, 2021, 04:06:46 PM »
If you're concerned with mutations, and endemic virus, I hate to tell you this, but the year is now 2021.

In the year 2021, the virus has already mutated several times, there's the UK variant, the South African Variant, there's a new Brazil Variant.

The virus is also endemic.  China has locked down another city. 


TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10665 on: January 11, 2021, 08:31:21 PM »
I don't welcome unnecessary hysteria

Its pretty clear that you reacted with hysteria to what I posted about what is justifiably somewhat alarming news, and then you project that onto others as THEIR flaw. An interesting peek into the mind of an anti-alarmist coping with an undeniably alarming reality.

Try to find some emotional maturity to handle yourself so we can discuss the facts at hand without your patronizing.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2021, 09:23:21 PM by TeaPotty »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10666 on: January 12, 2021, 12:07:46 AM »
Several Gorillas at San Diego Zoo Test Positive for Coronavirus
https://ktla.com/news/local-news/several-gorillas-at-san-diego-zoo-test-positive-for-coronavirus/amp/

Several gorillas at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park have tested positive for the coronavirus in what is believed to be the first known cases among such primates in the United States and possibly the world.

The park’s executive director, Lisa Peterson, told The Associated Press on Monday that eight gorillas that live together at the park are believed to have the virus and several have been coughing.

It appears the infection came from a member of the park’s wildlife care team who also tested positive for the virus but has been asymptomatic and wore a mask at all times around the gorillas. The park has been closed to the public since Dec. 6 as part of the state of California’s lockdown efforts to curb coronavirus cases.

While other wildlife has contracted the coronavirus from minks to tigers, this is the first known instance of transmission to great apes and it is unknown if they will have any serious reaction.

Wildlife experts have expressed concern about the coronavirus infecting gorillas, an endangered species that share 98.4 percent of their DNA with humans and are inherently social animals.

The gorillas infected at the San Diego safari park are western lowland gorillas, whose population has declined by more than 60% over the last two decades because of poaching and disease, according to the World Wildlife Fund.

The safari park tested the troop of gorillas after two apes began coughing Jan. 6. The test results were confirmed by the U.S Department of Agriculture National Veterinary Services Laboratories.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sdzsafaripark/status/1348721392624168960
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10667 on: January 12, 2021, 12:12:38 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10668 on: January 12, 2021, 12:34:39 AM »
COVID-19 Symptoms Often Linger 6 Months or More; Study
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/covid-19-symptoms-often-linger-6-months-or-more-study-finds

More than three quarters (76.5%) of 1,655 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China, had at least one symptom 6 months after discharge, reports a Lancet study published late last week.

The most common self-reported symptoms were fatigue or muscle weakness (62.7%) and sleeping difficulties (26.4%), and physical exam follow-ups also showed lung diffusion impairment—which indicates poor oxygen exchange—in 34.1% of patients.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-01/tl-pss010721.php

Study participants were discharged from the hospital from Jan 7 to May 29, 2020, and the researchers followed-up a median of 186 days (more than 6 months) later, from Jun 16 to Sep 3. Out of 1,733 people in the cohort, 1,172 (67.6%) needed oxygen therapy, 122 (7.0%) needed ventilation or a similar procedure, and 76 (4.4%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

Among those excluded from the study were patients who died (1.3% out of the 2,469 total possible people), had follow-up for other reasons such as psychotic disorders or readmission, or lived in nursing or welfare homes.

The researchers gave a subset of 390 patients pulmonary exams and found diffusion impairment in 21.7% of those who did not need supplemental oxygen, 29.1% of those who received supplemental oxygen, and 55.8% of those who needed ventilation of any kind or a similar procedure.

"This was consistent with findings that the most common abnormal CT pattern was pulmonary interstitial change (GGO [ground glass opacity] and irregular lines), which were similar to the long-term lung manifestations of SARS [severe acute respiratory disease] or influenza," the researchers write, but they noted they had no baseline data.

Patients in the most severe infection group had 4.60-increased adjusted odds (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 3.25) for diffusion impairment than those who did not need any supplemental oxygen, although the data also revealed that the lungs were continuing to heal in some instances. For instance, GGO levels decreased between 25% to 45% from the height of infection to the follow-up, depending on the infection severity.

Antibody levels fell 52.5% (96.4% seropositivity to 58.5%) in 94 patients who received blood tests at the height of their infection and during their 6-month follow-up. Seven measured antibodies had decreased amounts by the time of follow-up, but more than 90% of patients continued to test positive for N-immunoglobulin (Ig) G, S-IgG, and receptor-binding-domain-IgG antibodies.

Other physical follow-up examinations found that 13% of 822 patients had decreased kidney function after discharge (but no healthy baseline data) and 23% of 1,692 patients performed at subnormal levels at a 6-minute walking test. None of the 390 patients who received follow-up ultrasounds had deep venous thrombosis of the legs.

The researchers assessed 17 symptoms. Besides fatigue/muscle weakness and sleeping difficulties, they included low-grade fever (0.0% prevalence), disordered taste (7.3%) or smell (10.6%), palpitations (9.3%), and hair loss (21.7%). (The researchers do not know if these symptoms began after discharge or held steady or worsened from hospital discharge.) They also found that 22.2% out of 1,617 were experiencing anxiety or depression.

6-month consequences of COVID-19 in patients discharged from hospital: a cohort study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32656-8/fulltext
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10669 on: January 12, 2021, 08:37:32 AM »
Japan Has Found a New Covid Variant. Here's How It Compares to Virus Strains In the UK, South Africa
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/11/japan-covid-variant-how-it-compares-to-strains-in-uk-south-africa.html

LONDON — Japan's National Institute of Infectious Diseases on Sunday said it had detected a new variant of the coronavirus in four travelers arriving from Brazil.

The newly discovered mutant strain of Covid-19 was found to share some of the mutations in common with those of concern for increased infectivity, the institute said, referring to highly infectious variants recently discovered in the U.K. and South Africa.

The variant of the virus discovered in Japan belongs to the B.1.1.248 strain and has 12 mutations in the spike protein, the NIID said.

Japan's Health Ministry said studies were underway to determine the effectiveness of coronavirus vaccines against the new variant, Reuters reported Sunday, citing an unnamed ministry official.

-----------------------------------------------

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/diseases/ka/corona-virus/2019-ncov/10107-covid19-33.html

... ... The novel mutant belongs to the B.1.1.248 strain and has 12 mutations in the spike protein. Similar to VOC-202012 / 01 and 501Y.V2 of mutant strains that are concerned about increased infectivity , N501Y mutation is observed at the receptor binding site of peplomer protein, and E484K mutation is observed as with 501Y.V2.

Mutations in E484 have been reported as escape mutations from monoclonal antibodies that neutralize SARS-CoV-2 (1,2). Furthermore, experimental data (3) that the E484K mutation was found in the escape mutant strain from the recoverer plasma and the neutralizing antibody titer of the pseudotype virus in the recoverer plasma decreased by about 10 times when E484 was mutated. (4) reports that it is difficult to suppress viral cell infection in vitro ( in vitro ) even in the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody induced in the serum of COVID-19 recoverers. Has been done. That is, there is a concern that the conventional immunity against the virus may be diminished against the virus having the E484 mutation.

In Brazil, there are reports of reinfection cases with mutant strains showing the E484K mutation of the B.1.1.248 strain (2021/01/06) (5), but they are not the same as the new mutant strain.

The mutant strain is limited to information on gene sequences. At present, it is difficult to determine the infectivity and pathogenicity in humans, the effects on testing methods, the effects on vaccines, etc., and further investigation is required.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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SimonF92

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10670 on: January 12, 2021, 12:03:00 PM »
I thought this was quite interesting;

SARS-CoV-2-induced remission of Hodgkin lymphoma

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/bjh.17116
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10671 on: January 12, 2021, 01:01:09 PM »
Two increased infectivity strains might be coincidence but three looks like a trend.

Its looking very much like while none of the individual mutations do anything much, there are combinations that increase infectivity, and now the virus had had long enough in circulation to pick up a dozen mutations, combinations which increase infectivity start to appear all over the place.

Yet another indicator that vaccines need to be used to wipe it out, not to palliate recurring epidemics like is done with flu.

2020 is near the top in most mortality measures even though the December figures are still some way from being complete. 2020 is likely to be the year in which most deaths have ever been recorded in England and Wales. Its not the sort of thing to invite a repeat of.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-mortality-rates-in-2020-compare-with-past-decades-and-centuries-12185275
« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 01:13:15 PM by Richard Rathbone »

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10672 on: January 12, 2021, 01:57:27 PM »
2020 is likely to be the year in which most deaths have ever been recorded in England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693
Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two
Quote
The Covid pandemic has caused excess deaths to rise to their highest level since World War Two.

There were close to 697,000 deaths in the UK in 2020 - nearly 91,000 more than what would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.

This represents an increase of 15% - making it the largest rise in excess deaths for more than 75 years.

When the age and size of the population is taken into account 2020 saw the worst death rates since the mid 2000s.

This measure - known as age-standardised mortality - takes into account population growth and age.

Mistakes 'cost lives' in a pandemic

Richard Murray, chief executive of The King's Fund, said the picture was likely to worsen given Covid deaths are rising following the surge in infections over recent weeks.

"The UK has one of the highest rates of excess deaths in the world, with more excess deaths per million people than most other European countries or the US.

'It will take a public inquiry to determine exactly what went wrong, but mistakes have been made.

"In a pandemic, mistakes cost lives. Decisions to enter lockdown have consistently come late, with the government failing to learn from past mistakes or the experiences of other countries.

"The promised "protective ring" around social care in the first wave was slow to materialise and often inadequate, a contributing factor to the excess deaths among care home residents last year.

'Like many countries, the UK was poorly prepared for this type of pandemic."
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10673 on: January 12, 2021, 02:28:19 PM »
  and now the virus had had long enough in circulation to pick up a dozen mutations, combinations which increase infectivity start to appear all over the place.

Yet another indicator that vaccines need to be used to wipe it out, not to palliate recurring epidemics like is done with flu.

The virus is under selective pressure to become more contagious, and to become resistant to monoclonal antibodies.  The current vaccines generate antibodies to a small part of the virus--the spike protein. So there's now emerging evolutionary pressure to alter these proteins.

None of this should be surprising, though certainly worrisome.  The current vaccines will likely prove helpful, but insufficient in the long run.  We'll need frequently-updated, multivalent vaccines, and combination anti-viral treatments, both.  Surveillance for arising mutations is going to be a long-term challenge.

When a virus becomes widespread, probability of acquiring adaptive mutations increases as the number of infected persons increases.  Had the world acted more aggressively from the beginning, we would likely not be seeing a proliferation of problematic mutations.  That cat is out of the bag, however.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10674 on: January 12, 2021, 02:50:31 PM »
This report from Russia, indicates that 18 mutations were found on a single human.

The diagnostic test for these "super mutators" is a consistently positive test for the virus, over a long period of time.

https://tass.com/science/1243935

Quote
A propensity of the coronavirus to mutate in case of a weakened immunity may lead to an emergence of hundreds of new mutations of the virus in a single body which do not increase death risks for a patient but may be more contagious or resistant to treatment, Director of Kazan Federal University’s Research Clinical Center for Precision and Regenerative Medicine Albert Rizvanov told TASS on Tuesday.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10675 on: January 12, 2021, 03:30:43 PM »
First known virus case found in apes at US zoo

One of the gorillas at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park
Quote
As many as eight gorillas have tested positive for Covid-19 at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park, in what is believed to be the first cases of their kind among apes in captivity.

Some of the gorillas have shown symptoms, including coughing, but none appear seriously ill.

While there has been one definitive positive test, all eight are presumed to have been exposed to the virus. It is presumed that the gorilla contracted it from a human handler.

"Aside from some congestion and coughing, the gorillas are doing well," Lisa Peterson, executive director of the San Diego Zoo Safari Park, said in the statement.

"The troop remains quarantined together and are eating and drinking. We are hopeful for a full recovery."

The zoo has been closed since the beginning of December due to the pandemic.

Though this is thought to be the first known case in apes, the virus has shown up in some other animals, including domestic cats and dogs.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10676 on: January 12, 2021, 03:45:25 PM »
Humans are apes.

An ape visiting the zoo must have sneezed in the direction of these other apes, and now all the apes are infected.




El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10677 on: January 12, 2021, 04:13:19 PM »

The virus is under selective pressure to become more contagious

I've been thinking about this for a while. How come the R of the flu has not changed in hundreds of years (= did not become more contagious) despite being more prone to mutations???

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10678 on: January 12, 2021, 04:45:54 PM »
The Basic Reproduction Number is a 20th century concept, so no one was keeping track of it in earlier centuries, so we don't really have data on it going back 'centuries', do we?

from wiki:

Quote
The roots of the basic reproduction concept can be traced through the work of Ronald Ross [died 1932], Alfred Lotka [died 1949] and others, but its first modern application in epidemiology was by George MacDonald in 1952
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10679 on: January 12, 2021, 05:01:56 PM »
The new coronavirus has mutated numerous times already, from what I've read there's already well over 20 mutations.

The spike proteins do appear to be affected by mutations.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10680 on: January 12, 2021, 05:06:44 PM »

The virus is under selective pressure to become more contagious

I've been thinking about this for a while. How come the R of the flu has not changed in hundreds of years (= did not become more contagious) despite being more prone to mutations???

Do you think centuries should mean infinitely contagious? Perhaps there is a local maximum infectivity for flu and no nearby higher maximums it could jump to?

Or maybe the most infectious strains have already spread immunity?

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10681 on: January 12, 2021, 06:19:05 PM »

The virus is under selective pressure to become more contagious

I've been thinking about this for a while. How come the R of the flu has not changed in hundreds of years (= did not become more contagious) despite being more prone to mutations???

Human influenza A virus was discovered in 1933 soon after Shope succeeded in isolating swine influenza A virus in 1931. So I don't understand where you get the centuries idea from. Virology wasn't a science until the late 20's.

---------------------------------------------------

The first modern application of in epidemiology was by George MacDonald in 1952. Not centuries.

---------------------------------------------------

Vaccination against influenza began in the 1930s with large-scale availability in the United States beginning in 1945.  This has significantly tamped down the reproduction number over the past 75 years.

-----------------------------------------------

Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291411/

Three worldwide (pandemic) outbreaks of influenza occurred in the 20th century: in 1918, 1957, and 1968. The latter 2 were in the era of modern virology and most thoroughly characterized. All 3 have been informally identified by their presumed sites of origin as Spanish, Asian, and Hong Kong influenza, respectively. They are now known to represent 3 different antigenic subtypes of influenza A virus: H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2, respectively.

Not classified as true pandemics are 3 notable epidemics: a pseudopandemic in 1947 with low death rates, an epidemic in 1977 that was a pandemic in children, and an abortive epidemic of swine influenza in 1976 that was feared to have pandemic potential. Major influenza epidemics show no predictable periodicity or pattern, and all differ from one another. Evidence suggests that true pandemics with changes in hemagglutinin subtypes arise from genetic reassortment with animal influenza A viruses.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10682 on: January 12, 2021, 06:31:12 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK Data
7 day average of daily deaths now at a record high - nearly 1,000.

But just maybe 7 day average of daily new cases has peaked.

ps: Recovered and active cases data only just appeared on worldometers. Looks a bit dodgy and I can't be bothered to go right back in time to post the data.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10683 on: January 12, 2021, 07:42:19 PM »
I don't welcome unnecessary hysteria

Its pretty clear that you reacted with hysteria to what I posted about what is justifiably somewhat alarming news, and then you project that onto others as THEIR flaw. An interesting peek into the mind of an anti-alarmist coping with an undeniably alarming reality.

Try to find some emotional maturity to handle yourself so we can discuss the facts at hand without your patronizing.

You are literally trying to murder my character without knowing a single iota of me. Actually you're fabricating an entire new character, that of an hysterical flawed anti-alarmist. Your entire post is basically an insult!!

No. I am seriously alarmed by reinfections, human manipulation of nature, AGW, but I wouldn't use 30 pt font size for announcing one case of B117 reinfection because... what's the point?

I am more alarmed by the near one million infections per day globally. I am genuinely alarmed that a worse strain that delays global herd immunity emerges given the current numbers of the pandemics.

B117 has delayed natural herd immunity but vaccines are still efficacious against it, and it seems people that got COVID before are not being affected by the B117 en masse. In fact, that only one B117 reinfection is documented so far gives me some hope. Thank you!

Why do people react so poorly in this Forum? Your entire response is so harsh, so unfriendly and yes, purely insulting.

Let me quote my original response to your flyer, where I use numbers and reasoning to adjust my concerns on the issue at hand. Your response above is personal, emotional, and completely disproportionate.

Whoa!
30pt font size really called our attention, didn’t it?

We are talking about one reinfection.

There are about 10 to 100 reinfections documented so far out of tens of millions of infections. You do note the factor of one million, don’t you? That means naturally acquired immunity efficacy is about 99.99999% while the best vaccine so far has an estimated efficacy of 95%.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 07:59:18 PM by John Palmer. »

TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10684 on: January 12, 2021, 07:57:05 PM »
Palmer, don't forget you attacked first, and you got a response accordingly. Regardless, you are only getting more emo and off-topic. It sounds like you need to relax, maybe some alcohol or something. Then try to see if you can discuss the topic without attacking others.

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10685 on: January 12, 2021, 08:02:00 PM »
Palmer, don't forget you attacked first, and you got a response accordingly. Regardless, you are only getting more emo and off-topic. It sounds like you need to relax, maybe some alcohol or something. Then try to see if you can discuss the topic without attacking others.

I did not do attack to your personality or character, I just said that the use of 30 pt font size seems unnecessary, and yes, can cause certain hysteria. But I don't know you or your persona at all to attack you or your persona, and I have not.

TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10686 on: January 12, 2021, 08:25:46 PM »
Quote
"can cause certain hysteria"

Nobody needs your snobby patronizing, we can handle ourselves. Grow up, and stop dragging discussion off-topic.

TeaPotty

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10687 on: January 12, 2021, 10:01:35 PM »
Modelling conformational state dynamics and its role on infection for SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein variants
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.16.423118v3
Quote
Rafael Najmanovich (one of the paper's authors):
N501Y that we predicted to be more infective, could be one mutation away from N501W that we predict to be even more infective.
https://twitter.com/RNajmanovich/status/1348992630122835972
Quote
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.16.423118v3.full.pdf
The mutation that favours the open state the most in our calculations is N501W... The mutation N501W is predicted to have the largest effect in augmenting the occupancy of the open state relative to the wild type. This mutation is associated with stronger binding to ACE2 (Δlog10(KD,app)=0.11) relative to the wild type Spike (but lower than N501Y). Furthermore, N501W appears to have increased expression relative to the wild type with a Δlog(MFI) of 0.1 compared to decrease in relative expression of -0.14 for N501Y. The authors note that changes in expression correlate with folding stability. However, even with a Δlog(MFI) of -0.14, N501Y is viable and spreading. Therefore, N501W might be even more stable and infective

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10688 on: January 12, 2021, 10:13:14 PM »
You should follow the link and watch the video to see yet another reason for why perhaps the USA should be put on suicide watch.

Covid-19: Alabama crowds ignore coronavirus to celebrate championship

Fans of the University of Alabama football team gathered in the streets of Tuscaloosa in Alabama, ignoring social distancing. They were celebrating the university's third national championship in the past six years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-55641084

« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 10:25:38 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10689 on: January 12, 2021, 10:31:01 PM »
I suggest using bold text for highlights and skipping non standard letter size.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10690 on: January 12, 2021, 10:35:45 PM »
What about straw man arguments? And wild-ass guesses?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3376.msg297808.html#msg297808
Quote from: John Palmer.
Quote from: Rodius
Quote from: John Palmer.
... I agree, but one scenario demands several years of natural virus evolution (accelerated by overpopulation by a factor 10?
Do you have anything to support that claim?
No, I don't. It is a wild ass guess. ...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10691 on: January 12, 2021, 10:40:14 PM »
I suggest discussing them on the relevant thread.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10692 on: January 13, 2021, 12:27:39 AM »

The virus is under selective pressure to become more contagious

I've been thinking about this for a while. How come the R of the flu has not changed in hundreds of years (= did not become more contagious) despite being more prone to mutations???

I strongly doubt that influenza has a constant R value.  We have severe and less severe seasonal epidemics.  Because of the potential for large genetic shifts in some years, some strains can be more contagious than those in other years.   Something like 20% of the world's population gets infected with influenza in a given year.  Over a few years, substantial herd immunity develops to a dominant strain.  Then a strain with genetic shift picks up the baton.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10693 on: January 13, 2021, 12:56:45 AM »
^ related

Human influenza A virus was discovered in 1933 soon after Shope succeeded in isolating swine influenza A virus in 1931. Virology wasn't a science until the late 20's.

---------------------------------------------------

The first modern application of in epidemiology was by George MacDonald in 1952.

---------------------------------------------------

Vaccination against influenza began in the 1930s with large-scale availability in the United States beginning in 1945.  This has significantly tamped down the reproduction number over the past 75 years.

-----------------------------------------------

Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291411/

Three worldwide (pandemic) outbreaks of influenza occurred in the 20th century: in 1918, 1957, and 1968. The latter 2 were in the era of modern virology and most thoroughly characterized. All 3 have been informally identified by their presumed sites of origin as Spanish, Asian, and Hong Kong influenza, respectively. They are now known to represent 3 different antigenic subtypes of influenza A virus: H1N1, H2N2, and H3N2, respectively.

Not classified as true pandemics are 3 notable epidemics: a pseudopandemic in 1947 with low death rates, an epidemic in 1977 that was a pandemic in children, and an abortive epidemic of swine influenza in 1976 that was feared to have pandemic potential. Major influenza epidemics show no predictable periodicity or pattern, and all differ from one another. Evidence suggests that true pandemics with changes in hemagglutinin subtypes arise from genetic reassortment with animal influenza A viruses.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10694 on: January 13, 2021, 12:58:04 AM »
Chinese Covid-19 Vaccine Far Less Effective Than Initially Touted in Brazil
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/chinas-sinovac-covid-19-vaccine-is-50-4-in-late-stage-brazil-trials-11610470581

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - A coronavirus vaccine developed by China's Sinovac Biotech was just 50.4% effective at preventing symptomatic infections in a Brazilian trial, researchers said on Tuesday, barely enough for regulatory approval and well below the rate announced last week.

The latest results are a major disappointment for Brazil, as the Chinese vaccine is one of two that the federal government has lined up to begin immunization during the second wave of the world's second-deadliest COVID-19 outbreak.

Several scientists and observers blasted the Butantan biomedical center for releasing partial data just days ago that generated unrealistic expectations. The confusion may add to skepticism in Brazil about the Chinese vaccine, which President Jair Bolsonaro has criticized, questioning its "origins."

... Last week, the Brazilian researchers had celebrated results showing 78% efficacy against "mild-to-severe" COVID-19 cases, a rate they later described as "clinical efficacy."

They said nothing at the time about another group of "very mild" infections among those who received the vaccine that did not require clinical assistance.

Ricardo Palacios, medical director for clinical research at Butantan, said on Tuesday that the new lower efficacy finding included data on those "very mild" cases.

Palacios and officials in the Sao Paulo state government, which funds Butantan, emphasized the good news that none of the volunteers inoculated with CoronaVac had to be hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms. [... polishing a turd?]

Public health experts said that alone will be a relief for Brazilian hospitals that are buckling under the strain of surging case loads. However, it will take longer to curb the pandemic with a vaccine that allows so many mild cases.

-------------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10695 on: January 13, 2021, 01:00:00 AM »
Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522.full



We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived.

Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold. We predict a different outcome for an emergent coronavirus that causes severe disease in children.

These results reinforce the importance of behavioral containment during pandemic vaccine rollout, while prompting us to evaluate scenarios for continuing vaccination in the endemic phase.



“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10696 on: January 13, 2021, 01:46:03 AM »
Canada has considerable pharmaceutical and virological expertise:
'Canada has been a global leader in vaccine development before. In the middle of the last century, public labs in Ontario and Quebec provided the ability to produce them here at home. Toronto's Connaught Laboratories played a key role in developing the polio vaccine in the 1950s, for example.'
Canada lost its facilities during a period of austerity minded governments. The current pandemic has led us to realize this was a short sighted and ultimately expensive action. So, Canada is now building its capabilities back up.
Ultimately it aims to have the capacity to produce up to a billion doses a year, and thus able to help supply vaccines to the world in general.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/vaccine-development-production-in-canada-1.5868398

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10697 on: January 13, 2021, 08:25:45 AM »

The virus is under selective pressure to become more contagious

I've been thinking about this for a while. How come the R of the flu has not changed in hundreds of years (= did not become more contagious) despite being more prone to mutations???

I strongly doubt that influenza has a constant R value.  .....

Influenza has a very low R:

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480

"Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46"

This is pretty stable between 1,5-1,8. And I am sure the R could not have been much lower in previous centuries (as that would have made the R too low for it to meaningfully spread). So influenza likely has a very low R for a very long time.

Everyone said upthread that covid will select for higher R because that is what always happens with contagious diseases (less deadly, spreads quicker). This does not seem to be the case for the flu despite being around for centuries! 

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10698 on: January 13, 2021, 11:18:22 AM »

Everyone said upthread that covid will select for higher R because that is what always happens with contagious diseases (less deadly, spreads quicker). This does not seem to be the case for the flu despite being around for centuries!

If there is a readily accessible mutation series that leads to a better variant, that variant will occur and then be selected for, but if it needs a dozen mutations, and ten of these are detrimental unless all twelve are present, it isn't going to get there.

COVID lineages mutate about once a month on average, so any advantage that only took one mutation to achieve was probably already found between when it was in a bat in October and noticed in Wuhan in December. This process was seen in mink farms when sequencing was done close enough to the species jump to catch it happening, but there weren't enough sequences done soon enough after it jumped into humans to spot the initial adaptation.

What we are seeing now is combination effects, variants that require multiple mutations that are individually neutral but help the virus spread when they are all present. Its seems there are multiple combination options that it takes roughly a year's worth of random walking to stumble across, but which are powerful enough to take over once they have happened.

John Palmer.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10699 on: January 13, 2021, 02:25:58 PM »
What about straw man arguments? And wild-ass guesses?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3376.msg297808.html#msg297808
Quote from: John Palmer.
Quote from: Rodius
Quote from: John Palmer.
... I agree, but one scenario demands several years of natural virus evolution (accelerated by overpopulation by a factor 10?
Do you have anything to support that claim?
No, I don't. It is a wild ass guess. ...

Why do you drag this here? Just to add some gratuitous discrediting to me? I did not engage with you not even once, and certainly you had not engaged with me before. So your first interaction is to just throw one more stone, Vox_mundi?

I am, genuinely, flipping out about the normal behavior around here.