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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 548817 times)

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10750 on: January 16, 2021, 12:44:20 PM »
In February 2020, I was still a lurker, and I was reading this thread with great interest. Thanks to many of you, I think in particular (but there are many more) of Tom_Mazanec, Vox_Mundi, Archimid and Sam who fought hard to make us understand the gravity of the situation and propose solutions. Thanks to your work I was able to prepare very early. Being a very enthusiastic person, I equipped myself without measure, which then allowed me to distribute many liters of hydroalcoholic gel, nitril or latex gloves, masks, wipes and many cleaning products effective against viruses to two doctors in my city, to a group of liberal nurses working in the city, to nurses working in hospitals, to neighbors, to delivery men and of course to my family. And I am sure that many ASIF members and lurkers have done the same thanks to you my friends.

I don't know where all these virus mutations will lead us but I just wanted to thank you for all of this. I don't know if it was very effective, but the look on the faces of the people to whom I distributed all this material in February and March 2020 when they had nothing, well it was worth it.

One last little message: Sam we miss you a lot and we still need your advice, come back soon!

PS: Again a last little detail, to those who proposed bourbon and hot whisky with honey and orange, I regret to tell you that it is not very effective against covid, but if you add coffee and whipped cream it becomes very good.  ;D
« Last Edit: January 16, 2021, 01:30:02 PM by Général de GuerreLasse »
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10751 on: January 16, 2021, 01:10:03 PM »
Thanks for the home remedy  ;)

Je vous remercie pour le remède maison

Il vaut mieux prévenir que guérir 
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10752 on: January 16, 2021, 04:53:43 PM »
COVID-19 Exposure On Flights Is More Common Than You Think. The US Doesn't Share Details, But Canada Does
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3905053001

... Data from Canadian public health authorities show a near daily occurrence of flights where a passenger may have been infected while flying. From the start of the coronavirus pandemic in March through early January, the Public Health Agency of Canada has identified potential exposure on more than 1,600 international flights and more than 1,400 flights within Canada, for a total of more than 3,000 flights, including nearly 200 in the past two weeks alone.

On the list: U.S. carriers American, United, Delta, Alaska and Allegiant. The U.S. cities with the most affected flights on the list: Chicago, Phoenix, a magnet for Canadian visitors, and Denver.

The details aren't buried in some secret database. Canada has been posting public COVID-19 exposure alerts online for flights, trains and cruise ships throughout the pandemic.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/latest-travel-health-advice/exposure-flights-cruise-ships-mass-gatherings.html

Flights are listed as soon as authorities receive word of a positive test of a recent traveler, regardless of where and when they might have been infected, factors that are hard to pinpoint in most COVID-19 cases.

The publicly available details on COVID-19 on Canada flights, which includes flight date; airline; flight number; origin and destination; and, where available, row numbers because passengers seated within a few rows of an infected passenger are most susceptible to exposure, are in stark contrast to disclosures about impacted flights in the United States.

The CDC has revealed little information on the scope of COVID exposure on flights except to release, when requested, the number of affected flights. The latest tally: more than 4,000 flights within and into the United States. 

That number has more than doubled since August and compares with infectious disease investigations on just 150 flights in each of 2019 and 2018.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10753 on: January 16, 2021, 06:26:27 PM »
If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous


But what if there is accumulative damage with each reinfection?

 What about the age bias? Covid hits harder the older you are. Reinfections happen on more vulnerable subjects every year.

Last but not least. Mutation.

Covid 19 is not even close to being endemic yet. Once everyone is in this cycle, SARS-CoV-2 will be mutating at a rate order of magnitudes greater than it is now. In a world with an endemic SARS-CoV-2, many mutations will be harmless and some will cause massive death spikes in particular locations.


All because people are afraid of wearing masks or getting a vaccine. That is not acceptable.

And that does not even address the fact that serious lung damage is showing up on the x-rays of 70% of those who had mild cases.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10754 on: January 16, 2021, 07:11:28 PM »
I mostly ignore the original poll on this thread, but it's been a year (13-14 months?) from when the epidemic started with 'reported' worldwide COVID-19 deaths exceeding 2 million, and with probably an additional 1 million of 'related' deaths, aka (additional) excess deaths, I had a look. Nearly half of us underestimated the long-term consequences.

The various threads on the ASI Forum do not tend to predict things very well, but there is a chance our 'average' will come to pass in this instance.  (In other words, I'm ready for the virus to die, disappear or otherwise become harmless.)
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sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10755 on: January 16, 2021, 11:18:38 PM »
Killing the old: Corrigan at wsws

"COVID-19 is out of control at Lakepointe Senior Care and Rehab Center in Clinton Township, Michigan."

“We don’t have a medical team here for COVID, and our facility is not adequate to take care of COVID-positive residents ... We can’t take care of patients with COVID. They are just sitting here until they die.”

“But last Wednesday [Jan 6] we had about 10 people in C wing test positive for COVID. They shut down the wing, and EMS came in and moved them all out of here. But by the next day they had to bring most of them back! They couldn’t find a place for them to go.”

"They just brought someone in today who was removed from here a week ago after testing positive, and he’s still coughing! They are even putting them in rooms with residents who don’t have COVID, because there’s nowhere else to put them."

"we’ve got staff walking around the building who are COVID-positive."

"As soon as someone dies, they bring new people in right away. They just say, ‘go ahead and bring them in the building, it doesn’t matter if people are dying, we need the beds filled"

 “a family stormed [Lakepointe] when their relative died after catching COVID here. He was COVID negative when he got here, but then he caught it here and he ended up dying. A young man threatened to kill everyone in the facility, and the police were called.”

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/01/16/covi-j15.html

sidd

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10756 on: January 17, 2021, 08:17:45 AM »
If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous


But what if there is accumulative damage with each reinfection?

 What about the age bias? Covid hits harder the older you are. Reinfections happen on more vulnerable subjects every year.


That is why we need to vaccinate the 60+ cohort fast. Once they are vaccinated there is no reason to keep up the restrictions as 2/3 of hopsitalizations and more than 2/3 of mortality is in that cohort. This will be done by April/May in Europe and America. Also, positive seasonality will kick in. Restrictions will be very quickly lifted at the end of spring. After that the general population will be vaccinated until autumn. This thing is almost gone, there is only 3-4 months left - much less than the 10 months since the start of lockdowns

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10757 on: January 17, 2021, 08:37:05 AM »
If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous


But what if there is accumulative damage with each reinfection?

 What about the age bias? Covid hits harder the older you are. Reinfections happen on more vulnerable subjects every year.


That is why we need to vaccinate the 60+ cohort fast. Once they are vaccinated there is no reason to keep up the restrictions as 2/3 of hopsitalizations and more than 2/3 of mortality is in that cohort. This will be done by April/May in Europe and America. Also, positive seasonality will kick in. Restrictions will be very quickly lifted at the end of spring. After that the general population will be vaccinated until autumn. This thing is almost gone, there is only 3-4 months left - much less than the 10 months since the start of lockdowns

Norway has some trouble with the vaccine.
Quote
The findings have prompted Norway to suggest that Covid-19 vaccines may be too risky for the very old and terminally ill, the most cautious statement yet from a European health authority.

The Norwegian Institute of Public Health judges that “for those with the most severe frailty, even relatively mild vaccine side effects can have serious consequences. For those who have a very short remaining life span anyway, the benefit of the vaccine may be marginal or irrelevant.”

Pfizer and BioNTech are working with the Norwegian regulator to investigate the deaths in Norway, Pfizer said in an e-mailed statement. The agency found that “the number of incidents so far is not alarming, and in line with expectations,” Pfizer said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/norway-vaccine-fatalities-among-people-75-and-older-rise-to-29

It seems to be only a problem for people who are really in bad conditions.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10758 on: January 17, 2021, 11:53:10 AM »
It seems to be only a problem for people who are really in bad conditions.

And these lives suddenly don't matter? Every life counts! Every life is sacred! Pfizer should be ashamed of itself for downplaying these 'incidents'!
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10759 on: January 17, 2021, 02:22:11 PM »
Neven, that’s very low level text book concern trolling.  Etienne obviously didn’t mean to say what you are attempting to imply he said. Please desist.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2021, 05:05:00 PM by Archimid »
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10760 on: January 17, 2021, 02:34:42 PM »
Never, That’s very low level text book concern trolling.  Estríenme obviously didn’t mean to say what you are attempting to imply he said. Please desist.

Agreed.  It should be used as a warning that the very frail should heed.  Just like the disease, the speed in which the vaccine was produced and administered is leading to new information almost daily.  Perhaps this will be similar to some other vaccines (i.e. varicella) which is not recommended for this demographic.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10761 on: January 17, 2021, 04:30:26 PM »
I wouldn't say that it is trolling, and Pfizer is not the only one that should be ashamed.

Normal discussion should be possible. There is an issue with the vaccine and it is important to share the information.

Trolling is for me providing false information in order to achieve an objective.

Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55, so it is not a surprise that it can create problems for people that are almost at the end of their life, but the issue is that you need so many death before that the problem is identified.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10762 on: January 17, 2021, 04:41:23 PM »
The UK has just run an experiment on what happens when restrictions get relaxed. Its not pretty.

Week ending 7th December.

Isle of Wight 14.8 (positives per 100k per week)
Knowsley 97.4
Essex 225.3

Latest data (week ending 11th Jan)

Isle of Wight 1036.2
Knowsley 1328.4
Essex 466.3

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

This is what happened when restrictions got taken away after lockdown 2.
Isle of Wight was put in Tier 1, which is by no means restriction free. Infection jumped by a factor of 80 in 4 weeks. (last week infection in the Isle of Wight dropped, in the middle weeks it was doubling every 3 days)
Knowsley was put in Tier 2 as a "reward" for bringing its infection rate down a bit faster than elsewhere in the 2nd lockdown. As a result, it was the area with the highest infection in England last week.
Essex had the earliest post lockdown 2 clampdown of those 3 and it now has a much lower, though still horrendously high, rate than them, even though its also one of the areas worst hit by the B.1.1.7 variant.

Vaccinating just the over 60s does almost nothing to control spread and will only drop the pressure on hospitals by a half at most. Transmission from retired to working age adults is tiny. There are nowhere near enough working age people infected yet to seriously dent the rate at which the epidemic spreads when restrictions are relaxed. Attack rates of just 15% have been enough to cause widespread and prolonged serious degradations in care not just for COVID but for everything else too.

If the whole country gets given a Knowsley/Isle of Wight style "reward" of loose restrictions for vaccine progress in March, hospitals will be overflowing with under 60s inside a month. Half of IC patients are under 60. Its just one doubling or somewhat under a week of lifted restrictions to fill that up.


Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10763 on: January 17, 2021, 04:46:17 PM »
Never, That’s very low level text book concern trolling.  Estríenme obviously didn’t mean to say what you are attempting to imply he said. Please desist.

I know Etienne didn't mean to say that, but that's the reaction you get when you say that it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19. When Pfizer says the same thing about the vaccine, no problemo.

Apologies for the sarcasm. No offense meant to Etienne.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10764 on: January 17, 2021, 05:05:44 PM »
I wouldn't say that it is trolling, and Pfizer is not the only one that should be ashamed.

Normal discussion should be possible. There is an issue with the vaccine and it is important to share the information.

Trolling is for me providing false information in order to achieve an objective.

Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55, so it is not a surprise that it can create problems for people that are almost at the end of their life, but the issue is that you need so many death before that the problem is identified.


No need to be ashamed...we all wanted a vaccine so now we have one. And we are vaccinating the elderly first to relief the pressure on the health care system.

Plus you can´t leave people out. Quite a lot of the Norway cases were in the really frail old. These are mixed in with the slightly less frail ones in the same care homes. No all deaths close in time actually have a causal relation with the vaccine.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10765 on: January 17, 2021, 05:12:42 PM »
Quote
but that's the reaction you get when you say that it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19

No. That's the reaction you get when you say we should do nothing about C19 because "it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19".

C19 do kill mostly older people with comorbidities, and we should stop the world to save them, if only because we will eventually be old and with comorbidities. But the losses are very real.

Those of you that guided places like the US and Brazil into letting hundreds of thousands of their people die should be ashamed. Instead, you are pretending you were right?

Apologies I'll accept. Especially now that can still make a difference. Anyone can be wrong at any time. Blaming others or deflecting fault? That's low.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10766 on: January 17, 2021, 05:22:34 PM »
Those of you that guided places like the US and Brazil into letting hundreds of thousands of their people die should be ashamed. Instead, you are pretending you were right?

I hope that ´guided´ is some translation oddity otherwise you should see a shrink. A small website does not influence those countries plus remember who the presidents are/were? 
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10767 on: January 17, 2021, 05:54:45 PM »
Distinct Patterns of Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Variants including N501Y in Clinical Samples in Columbus Ohio
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.12.426407v1.full

Abstract

Following the worldwide emergence of the p.Asp614Gly shift in the Spike (S) gene of SARS-CoV-2, there have been few recurring pathogenic shifts occurring during 2020, as assessed by genomic sequencing. This situation has evolved in the last several months with the emergence of several distinct variants (first identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa, respectively) that illustrate multiple changes in the S gene, particularly p.Asn501Tyr (N501Y), that likely have clinical impact.

We report here the emergence in Columbus, Ohio in December 2020 of two novel SARS-CoV-2 clade 20C/G variants.

One isolate, that has become the predominant virus found in nasopharyngeal swabs in the December 2020-January 2021 period, harbors S p.Gln677His, membrane glycoprotein (M) p.Ala85Ser (Q677H) and nucleocapsid (N) p.Asp377Tyr (D377Y) mutations.

The other isolate contains S N501Y and ORF8 Arg52Ile (R52I), which are two markers of the UK-B.1.1.7 (clade 20I/501Y.V1) strain, but lacks all other mutations from that virus. It is also from a different clade and shares multiple mutations with the clade 20C/G viruses circulating in Ohio prior to December 2020.

These two SARS-CoV-2 viruses emerging now in the United States add to the diversity of S gene shifts occurring worldwide and support multiple independent acquisition of S N501Y (in likely contrast to the unitary S D614G shift) occurring first during this period of the pandemic.


------------------------------------------

The Odd Structure of ORF8: Mapping the Coronavirus Protein Linked to Disease Severity
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-odd-orf8-coronavirus-protein-linked.html

... "Coronaviruses mutate differently than viruses like influenza or HIV, which quickly accumulate many little changes through a process called hypermutation. In coronaviruses, big chunks of nucleic acids sometimes move around through recombination," explained Hurley. When this happens, big, new regions of proteins can appear. Genetic analyses conducted very early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic revealed that this new strain had evolved from a coronavirus that infects bats, and that a significant recombination mutation had occurred in the area of the genome that codes for a protein, called ORF7, found in many coronaviruses. The new form of ORF7, named ORF8, quickly gained the attention of virologists and epidemiologists because significant genetic divergence events like the one seen for ORF8 are often the cause of a new strain's virulence.

"Basically, this mutation caused the protein to double in size, and the stuff that doubled was not related to any known fold," added Hurley. "There's a core of about half of it that's related to a known fold type in a solved structure from earlier coronaviruses, but the other half was completely new."


A ribbon diagram rendering of the ORF8 structure, which is composed of two protein units with identical amino acid sequence and shape that are connected by a sulfur-sulfur bond

Currently, there are several investigations underway focused on how ORF8 interacts with cell receptors and how it interacts with antibodies, as infected individuals appear to produce antibodies that bind to ORF8 in addition to antibodies specific to the virus's surface proteins.

Thomas G. Flower et al, Structure of SARS-CoV-2 ORF8, a rapidly evolving immune evasion protein, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/2/e2021785118

... The accessory protein ORF8 is one of the most rapidly evolving betacoronavirus proteins. While ORF8 expression is not strictly essential for SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 replication, a 29-nucleotide deletion (Δ29) that occurred early in human to human transmission of SARS-CoV, splitting ORF8 into ORF8a and ORF8b, is correlated with milder disease. A 382-nucleotide deletion (Δ382) in SARS-CoV-2 (9, 10) was also found to correlate with milder disease and a lower incidence of hypoxia (11).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10768 on: January 17, 2021, 08:59:00 PM »
Quote
but that's the reaction you get when you say that it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19

No. That's the reaction you get when you say we should do nothing about C19 because "it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19".

C19 do kill mostly older people with comorbidities, and we should stop the world to save them, if only because we will eventually be old and with comorbidities. But the losses are very real.

Those of you that guided places like the US and Brazil into letting hundreds of thousands of their people die should be ashamed. Instead, you are pretending you were right?

Apologies I'll accept. Especially now that can still make a difference. Anyone can be wrong at any time. Blaming others or deflecting fault? That's low.

Which begs the question, should we vaccinate older people with comorbidities or run the risk of them getting COVID? 

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10769 on: January 17, 2021, 09:14:40 PM »
Epidemiology of post-COVID syndrome following hospitalisation with coronavirus: a retrospective cohort study

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full-text

The study looks at what happened to everyone admitted to hospital during the first wave in England, and compares outcomes for about 5 months afterwards with a matched cohort. There is quite significant long term health damage associated with having been in hospital for COVID.

Quote
766 (95% confidence interval: 753 to 779) readmissions and 320 (312 to 328) deaths per 1,000 person-years were observed in COVID-19 cases, 3.5 (3.4 to 3.6) and 7.7 (7.2 to 8.3) times greater, respectively, than in controls.

Quote
Of 47,780 individuals in hospital with COVID-19 over the study period, 29.4% were re-admitted and 12.3% died following discharge

Thats about 5000 excess deaths.

Quote
Respiratory disease was diagnosed in 14,140 individuals (29.6%) following discharge, with 6,085 of these being new-onset cases; the resulting event rates of 770 (758 to 783) and 539 (525 to 553) per 1,000 person-years, respectively, were 6.0 (5.7 to 6.2) and 27.3 (24.0 to 31.2) times greater than those in controls.

More likely to have an existing respiratory problem recur, and much more likely to acquire a new one.

Quote
Those with COVID-19 received post-discharge diagnoses of MACE, CLD, CKD and diabetes 3.0 (2.7 to 3.2), 2.8 (2.0 to 4.0), 1.9 (1.7 to 2.1) and 1.5 (1.4 to 1.6) times more frequently, respectively, than in the matched control group.

More likely to suffer from heart, liver, kidney problems as well as acquire diabetes. It doesn't mess up the other organs at the same rate as the lungs, but it messes them up.

Quote
Individuals requiring ICU admission experienced greater rates of post-discharge respiratory disease and diabetes than those not in ICU, but the opposite was true for rates of death, readmission and MACE.

Its not just those that were in ICU having all the problems afterwards.

Quote
Rates of all post-discharge adverse events were greater in individuals with COVID-19 aged ≥ 70 years than <70 years, while rates of all events other than diabetes were greater in the White ethnic group than the Non-White group (Supplementary Table 4). However, the rate ratio of adverse events (contrasting COVID-19 cases and matched controls) was greater in individuals aged <70 years than ≥ 70 years for all event types (Figure 3), with the biggest differences in rate ratios being observed for death (14.1 [11.0 to 18.3] for <70 years versus 7.7 [7.1 to 8.3] for ≥ 70 years) and respiratory disease (10.5 [9.7 to 11.4] for <70 years versus 4.6 [4.3 to 4.8] for ≥ 70 years).

In absolute terms, long covid hit the older patients harder, but in relative terms, its the younger ones who have the most elevated risk.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10770 on: January 17, 2021, 09:49:59 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10771 on: January 18, 2021, 01:10:56 AM »
At the moment, my main concern is the damage to the lungs regardless of the severity of the illness.

First time around, Covid is doing significant damage to organs, not lethal in itself, but damaging and slow to heal.

Second time around, the damaged organs get hit again, surely that second round of damage will increase the chances of death in all age groups??????
And this bears out to be true, each time someone catches Covid, the damage increases.

I am probably wrong in my thinking or that the body will heal the damage within the immunity period so it means very little.

But in my mind, that is what I would be focusing on over the next year or so.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10772 on: January 18, 2021, 01:55:26 AM »
At the moment, my main concern is the damage to the lungs regardless of the severity of the illness.

First time around, Covid is doing significant damage to organs, not lethal in itself, but damaging and slow to heal.

Second time around, the damaged organs get hit again, surely that second round of damage will increase the chances of death in all age groups??????
And this bears out to be true, each time someone catches Covid, the damage increases.

I am probably wrong in my thinking or that the body will heal the damage within the immunity period so it means very little.

But in my mind, that is what I would be focusing on over the next year or so.

Persons who have recovered but suffered organ damage (young and old; healthy or with commorbidities) will have shorter lives as a result and likely require more healthcare as they age. The impact of this pandemic will be with us for decades.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10773 on: January 18, 2021, 07:15:08 AM »
Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55,

You're wrong:

"The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,661 participants to date, 41,135 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate as of November 13, 2020. Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age"

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10774 on: January 18, 2021, 12:29:29 PM »
California Calls for Pause In Use of Moderna Vaccines Batch After Allergic Reactions
https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/amp/California-calls-for-pause-in-use-of-huge-batch-15878735.php

California’s top epidemiologist is warning health providers to delay using a batch of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine after a “higher-than-usual number of possible allergic reactions” were reported at a Southern Calfornia vaccination clinic.

The affected lot includes 330,000 doses — roughly 1/10th of what the state so far has distributed.

The reaction was observed in fewer than 10 people who required medical attention after receiving the vaccine at one clinic, state epidemiologist Dr. Erica S. Pan said in a statement Sunday night. The conditions of those affected were not released, but health officials described the allergic reaction as “severe.”

The clinic is located in San Diego, the California Department of Public Health reported later.

“Out of an abundance of caution and also recognizing the extremely limited supply of vaccine,” read the statement, “we are recommending that providers use other available vaccine inventory and pause the administration of vaccines from Moderna Lot 041L20A until the investigation by the CDC, FDA, Moderna and the state is complete.”

More than 330,000 doses from the affected lot — which arrived in California between Jan. 5 and Jan. 12 — have been distributed to 287 providers across the state, officials said. No other adverse reactions have been reported from that specific lot.

“There are not immediate replacement doses during the pause in addition to pending orders scheduled for shipment in the next few days,” public health officials said in the statement sent to health providers.

The health department said they would have more information later this week.



---------------------------------------------

A New Coronavirus Variant Tied to at Least 90 Infections In Deadly Outbreak at a Medical Center In San Jose, California
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/press-release-01-17-2021-COVID-19-variant-more-frequent-in-CA.aspx

A new coronavirus variant has been linked to multiple outbreaks in Santa Clara County, located southeast of San Francisco. One of the outbreaks has led to at least 90 infections and one death at the Kaiser Permanente medical center in San Jose, public health officials said.

The variant known as L452R has been discovered in other states and countries, but is now spreading rapidly through California. It's different than the B.1.1.7 variant, which was first found in the UK.

California is working with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, local public health departments, and laboratory sequencing partners to learn more about the variant and how it spreads, according to the joint statement from the California Department of Public Health, Santa Clara County, and the University of California San Francisco.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10775 on: January 18, 2021, 01:52:40 PM »
Quote
I hope that ´guided´ is some translation oddity otherwise you should see a shrink. A small website does not influence those countries plus remember who the presidents are/were?

Sigh. You don't know how knowledge transmission works.

Thoughts can be encoded into words, sentences, haiku, tweets, paragraphs, forum posts, essays, books, images, movies or any other form of encoding. This code is not much different than a virus. By itself it is meaningless. However, once a human reactor ( be it cell or brain) reads the code, the seemingly innocuous code has consequences in the world.

Most encoded thoughts, like most viruses, have no consequences other than a few changed cells or flipped neurons.

Some encoded thoughts become...viral.

Get it?

Our words have consequences proportional to the impact on other people's neurons and the potential of that thought being duplicated.


That's why truth is so important. That's why lies cause so much destruction and death. The power of words is real.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10776 on: January 18, 2021, 02:45:39 PM »
But more words is more power. Mass media , group think etc.
Anyway thanks for the clarification.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10777 on: January 18, 2021, 03:35:43 PM »
TWiV 708  (the week in virology)

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-708/

As always a little long, folksy, meandering, side ways questions and watching people brainstorm,

The part that interested me was the small examination of Beta Propriolactone (C3H4O2)   The Sinovac "dead" virus vaccine used Beta Propriolactone instead of the more often used formaldehyde.to inactive the virus.   They examined possible ways that might have a part in the SinoVacs 50.4 % effectiveness.   (They did say that the FDA required 50 % and they did not disparge any of the stats).   It is in the lower range of effectiveness.   Beta Propriolactone  is known from denaturing nucleic acids (why it is listed as a probable carcinogen but does not have a max level)   - but it will also deform proteins.    They made conjectures about where on the S1 S2 spike it might have done that.  They did not disparge the vaccine or try to discourage it's use, they talked about the importance of getting more stable (less need of refrigeration) vaccines out world wide and into as many arms as possible. 

They also went into a little about possible protein deformations via formaldehyde and contrasted these vaccines versus mRNA.

The Lancet article on Sinvovac phase 1 and 2
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S1473-3099(20)30843-4/fulltext

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10778 on: January 18, 2021, 03:47:15 PM »
Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55,

You're wrong:

"The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,661 participants to date, 41,135 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate as of November 13, 2020. Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age"

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

So that "study" included a subset from the elderly population and still failed to detect problems in that demographic. 

The public experiment continues.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10779 on: January 18, 2021, 05:12:31 PM »
Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55,

You're wrong:

"The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,661 participants to date, 41,135 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate as of November 13, 2020. Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age"

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine

So that "study" included a subset from the elderly population and still failed to detect problems in that demographic. 

The public experiment continues.

The subset I which the problems occur is not just the elderly, but the elderly with underlying medical conditions.  Did they include them in the study?  Probably not, as compounding issues tend to compromise results.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10780 on: January 18, 2021, 05:41:18 PM »
TWiV 708  (the week in virology)

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-708/
Thank you very much for providing this synopsis.  This is a smart group of virologists, but they are lousy YouTbue hosts.  One has to sit through an hour to get a few nuggets of important information.

Cheers.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10781 on: January 18, 2021, 07:29:39 PM »
"fearmongerer"   :-*

One in Eight Recovered Covid-19 Patients Dies Within 5 Months

https://www.ibtimes.sg/one-eight-recovered-covid-19-patients-dies-within-5-months-find-uk-scientists-54984

Quote

Researchers from the Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have found that almost a third of recovered Coronavirus patients are readmitted to hospitals within five months. But the most shocking part of their finding is that up to one in eight patients dies because of COVID-19 related complications.

The team of researchers in the UK identified that that out of 47,780 people discharged from hospital in the first wave of Coronavirus, 29.4 percent returned to the hospital within 140 days and 12.3 percent died.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 09:00:09 PM by harpy »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10782 on: January 18, 2021, 07:38:25 PM »
Acute Endotheliitis (Type 3 Hypersensitivity Vasculitis) in Ten COVID-19 Autopsy Brains

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.16.21249632v1

Quote
Central nervous system (CNS) involvement in COVID-19 may occur through direct SARS-CoV-2 invasion through peripheral or cranial nerves or through vascular endothelial cell infection. The renin-angiotensin system may play a major part in CNS morbidity. Effects of hypoxia have also been implicated in CNS lesions in COVID-19. This communication reports on ten consecutive autopsies of individuals with death due to COVID-19 with decedent survival ranging from 30 minutes to 84 days after admission. All ten brains examined had neutrophilic microvascular endotheliitis present in variable amounts and variably distributed. Importantly, this acute stage of type 3 hypersensitivity vasculitis can be followed by fibrinoid necrosis and inner vascular wall sclerosis, but these later stages were not found. These results suggest that a vasculitis with autoimmune features occurred in all ten patients. It is possible that viral antigen in or on microvascular walls or other antigen-antibody complexes occurred in all ten patients proximate to death as a form of autoimmune vasculitis.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10783 on: January 18, 2021, 10:25:28 PM »
RR mentioned excess deaths. It strikes me that this measure is becoming less and less useful, given that the measures taken to avoid covid are all even more effective in suppressing seasonal flu. So probably the excess death number may be underestimating deaths from covid.

I guess as we get a clearer picture of how much deaths from flu have been avoided this season, we may be able to more accurately factor this into the estimates for excess deaths due to covid19
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10784 on: January 18, 2021, 10:48:45 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10785 on: January 19, 2021, 02:29:53 AM »
Another New Covid-19 Variant Discovered In L.A. May Be Vaccine Resistant
https://deadline.com/2021/01/another-new-covid-19-variant-in-l-a-vaccine-resistant-denmark-1234675834/amp/

... Dr. Charles Chiu, a virologist and professor of laboratory medicine at UCSF who has been genetically sequencing test samples to identify new variants, said L452R grew from about 3.8% of the samples he tested in late November 2020 through early December to more than 25.2% in late December through early January 2021.

The L452R variant affects the spike protein of the virus, so there’s a chance the currently-developed vaccines will be less effective against it, said Chiu. The vaccines now being administered in the United States were designed to give people immunity by inhibiting the virus’s spike protein.

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2820%2930877-1.pdf

An article on Cell.com says L452R has “decreased sensitivity to neutralizing mAbs (monoclonal antibodies),” which are used in the currently-approved vaccines to inhibit connections between the spike proteins of the virus and infected cells.

Chiu said very early studies of the L452R spike protein mutation indicate it’s less susceptible to those neutralizing antibodies in the vaccines.

The new variant has also been detected in Los Angeles, Mono, Monterey, Orange, Riverside, San Francisco, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, Humboldt and Lake counties. Because genomic sequencing is sparse, it is currently unknown how prevalent L452R is statewide, nationally or globally.

---------------------------------------------

S. Africa Virus Variant More Contagious, Experts Confirm
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-safrica-virus-strain-contagious-experts.html

The new variant is 50 percent more contagious, said epidemiologist Professor Salim Abdool Karim, co-chair of the health ministry's scientific committee.

"There is no evidence the new COVID variant is more severe than the original variant," he added.

The experts drew their conclusions about the variant—now the dominant strain in South Africa— from an analysis of data collected from the main infection clusters across the country.

It was the discovery by South African experts of the new variant—known as 510Y.V2—that convinced the authorities to introduce new restrictions in December to slow its spread.

--------------------------------------------

Los Angeles Lifts Air-Quality Limits for Cremations as Covid Doubles Death Rate
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/18/los-angeles-covid-coronavirus-deaths-cremation-pandemic

Air quality regulators have lifted the limits on the number of cremations that can be performed in Los Angeles county, citing a death rate that is more than double the pre-pandemic norm and an unmanageable backlog of dead bodies.

More than 2,700 bodies were being stored at local hospitals and the county coroner’s office as of Friday 15 January, the South Coast air quality management district said on Sunday in explaining its decision to enact an executive order suspending limits on cremations.

http://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/covid-19/crematoria-limits-suspension.pdf

http://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/news-archive/2021/emergency-order-for-crematoriums-jan17-2021.pdf

The order came at the request of the Los Angeles county coroner’s office and department of public health, which both confirmed that the backlog was in and of itself a potential threat to public health, the South Coast AQMD said. It also warned that the coroner anticipated “another surge” of deaths to begin four to six weeks after the New Year’s holiday.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10786 on: January 19, 2021, 03:18:04 AM »
Thanks for the flu graph, vox. As I thought, we're pretty far below averages this year.

That stat about air quality limits for cremations in LA is just one of those little factoids that somehow drives home (to me at least) the grim realities people are facing there.

With a third of the population having already gotten it, I'm wondering if some of the hardest hit sub-populations--Blacks and Latinx in particular--are going to reach 'natural herd immunity' before most of them get access to the vaccine. Not the best way to get to herd immunity... :-\
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10787 on: January 19, 2021, 02:16:33 PM »
That is why we need to vaccinate the 60+ cohort fast. Once they are vaccinated there is no reason to keep up the restrictions as 2/3 of hospitalizations and more than 2/3 of mortality is in that cohort.

Absolutely. Once that cohort reaches high immunity numbers the problem of saturated medical systems is solved. However, the dead-end of natural herd immunity that some countries have taken leaves the possibility of a mutation too high for comfort.

Democratic countries will do well in placing harsh economic sanctions on countries that choose to let covid 19 mutate freely in their lands. Severe flight and travel restrictions at the very least.

 
Quote
This will be done by April/May in Europe and America. Also, positive seasonality will kick in. Restrictions will be very quickly lifted at the end of spring. After that, the general population will be vaccinated until autumn. This thing is almost gone, there is only 3-4 months left - much less than the 10 months since the start of lockdowns

Sounds like a given. Let's hope that the Covid countries don't spoil it for all of us.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10788 on: January 19, 2021, 02:36:22 PM »
The drugs must be reliable products if governments are drafting legislation to prevent lawsuits against the manufacturers.

Perhaps they figure it would be a waste of time to file a lawsuit, right?  The government is just trying to help save the general public time.    ;)

Senate Proposal Would Retroactively Shield Corporations From All COVID Lawsuits

https://www.dailyposter.com/p/senate-proposal-would-retroactively

Quote
Restrict the enforcement of longstanding laws such as the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 and the Civil Rights Act of 1964 when companies say they are attempting to comply with governments’ coronavirus guidance.

Why potential vaccine-related legal liabilities worry Covid-19 vaccine makers

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/why-potential-vaccine-related-legal-liabilities-worry-covid-19-vaccine-makers-6365681.html

Quote
As part of their purchase pacts, some countries have agreed to indemnify vaccine makers against claims following any adverse effects. India has not agreed to this so far. Executives of vaccine makers are also worried about the high cost of product liability covers they will have to buy given the limited data on adverse effects at this stage
« Last Edit: January 19, 2021, 02:54:44 PM by harpy »

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10789 on: January 19, 2021, 03:01:12 PM »
They agreed to do that a while ago so that is not surprising.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10790 on: January 19, 2021, 03:20:10 PM »
Another New Covid-19 Variant Discovered In L.A. May Be Vaccine Resistant
https://deadline.com/2021/01/another-new-covid-19-variant-in-l-a-vaccine-resistant-denmark-1234675834/amp/
 
https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2820%2930877-1.pdf

An article on Cell.com says L452R has “decreased sensitivity to neutralizing mAbs (monoclonal antibodies),” which are used in the currently-approved vaccines to inhibit connections between the spike proteins of the virus and infected cells.

Chiu said very early studies of the L452R spike protein mutation indicate it’s less susceptible to those neutralizing antibodies in the vaccines.

The article in Cell looks good to me.  The synopsis in deadline.com is dreadful.  The study in Cell did not examine vaccines, nor antibodies produced in response to vaccines.  Vaccines do not contain antibodies.  Nothing in the article directly addresses whether any variant of the virus is more or less likely to be inhibited by any vaccine.

The study did use convalescent serum from 10 recovering individuals.  Various strains showed modest increased or decreased inhibition by the various serum specimens.  There's not much here of particular note for us.

The journalistic drive to produce clickbait strikes again.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10791 on: January 19, 2021, 03:41:41 PM »
Agreed, that cell study is excellent.  @Steve - perhaps you didn't actually read the study and think about what is written?

First of all, the study included data from May 2020 - so all the mutations since that time are not entirely accounted for.

From a scientific perspective, the conclusions of the study are complicated, but the message is clear: mutations are extremely common, and decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies has been concluded .

Here's a few quotes:


80 mutations as of the publication date of the Article (data from May 2020).

Quote
As an RNA virus, SARS-CoV-2 virus is expected to continue
evolving over time in human populations. Close monitoring of
circulating virus strains is of unquestionable importance to
inform research and development of vaccines and therapeutics.
Here, we analyzed all spike sequences (over 13,000) reported to
GISAID database. After filtering out incomplete, redundant, and
ambiguous sequences, we narrowed down to 80 variants

Higher infectivity seems to be a common mutation:

Quote
This dominant strain could effectively infect the four cell lines tested, being 10-fold more infectious than the original Wuhan-1 strain

decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies (this is obviously bad news)

Quote
Indeed, both L452R and
F490L were natural variants, with decreased sensitivity to
neutralization by P2B-2F6 mAb; because both L452R and
F490L remain sensitive to P2C-1F11, suggesting this mAb is
not derived from the same clone for P2B-2F6. Moreover, both
mutants displayed decreased sensitivity to another neutralizing
mAb X593 by 10-fold compared with the reference strain


Quote
Although some strains with amino acid
changes at RBD studied here lost their infectivity, suggesting
they may not likely become widespread, the RBD natural variants with increased resistance to antibody-mediated neutralization should be closely watched. Moreover, ablation of glycosylation sites affected their reactivity to neutralizing antibodies,
along with their infectivity, enforcing the notion that the glycan
could substantially affect SARS-CoV-2 viral replication and vaccine-induced immune responses

Reference: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674%2820%2930877-1.pdf

« Last Edit: January 19, 2021, 04:33:03 PM by harpy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10792 on: January 19, 2021, 06:23:49 PM »
Study Finds COVID-19 Attack On Brain, Not Lungs, Triggers Severe Disease In Mice
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-covid-brain-lungs-triggers-severe.html

Georgia State University biology researchers have found that infecting the nasal passages of mice with the virus that causes COVID-19 led to a rapid, escalating attack on the brain that triggered severe illness, even after the lungs were successfully clearing themselves of the virus

Assistant professor Mukesh Kumar, the study's lead researcher, said the findings have implications for understanding the wide range in symptoms and severity of illness among humans who are infected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

"Our thinking that it's more of a respiratory disease is not necessarily true," Kumar said. "Once it infects the brain it can affect anything because the brain is controlling your lungs, the heart, everything. The brain is a very sensitive organ. It's the central processor for everything."

Kumar said that early in the pandemic, studies involving mice focused on the animals' lungs and did not assess whether the virus had invaded the brain. Kumars' team found that virus levels in the lungs of infected mice peaked three days after infection, then began to decline. However, very high levels of infectious virus were found in the brains of all the affected mice on the fifth and sixth days, which is when symptoms of severe disease became obvious, including labored breathing, disorientation and weakness.

The study found virus levels in the brain were about 1,000 times higher than in other parts of the body.

Kumar said the findings could help explain why some COVID-19 patients seem to be on the road to recovery, with improved lung function, only to rapidly relapse and die. His research and other studies suggest the severity of illness and the types of symptoms that different people experience could depend not only on how much virus a person was exposed to, but how it entered their body.

The nasal passages, he said, provide a more direct path to the brain than the mouth. And while the lungs of mice and humans are designed to fend off infections, the brain is ill equipped to do so, Kumar said. Once viral infections reach the brain, they trigger an inflammatory response that can persist indefinitely, causing ongoing damage.

"The brain is one of the regions where virus likes to hide," he said, because it cannot mount the kind of immune response that can clear viruses from other parts of the body.

"That's why we're seeing severe disease and all these multiple symptoms like heart disease, stroke and all these long-haulers with loss of smell, loss of taste," Kumar said. "All of this has to do with the brain rather than with the lungs."

Kumar said that COVID-19 survivors whose infections reached their brain are also at increased risk of future health problems, including auto-immune diseases, Parkinson's, multiple sclerosis and general cognitive decline.

"It's scary," Kumar said. "A lot of people think they got COVID and they recovered and now they're out of the woods. Now I feel like that's never going to be true. You may never be out of the woods."

Neuroinvasion and Encephalitis Following Intranasal Inoculation of SARS-CoV-2 in K18-hACE2 Mice. Viruses (2021)
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.422714v1.full

--------------------------------------------------

COVID-19 Virus Triggers Antibodies From Previous Coronavirus Infections: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-covid-virus-triggers-antibodies-previous.html

The results of a study led by Northern Arizona University and the Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen), an affiliate of City of Hope, suggest the immune systems of people infected with COVID-19 may rely on antibodies created during infections from earlier coronaviruses to help fight the disease. The published findings appear today in the journal Cell Reports Medicine.

... The researchers used a tool called PepSeq to finely map antibody responses to all human-infecting coronaviruses. PepSeq is a novel technology being developed at TGen and NAU that allows for the construction of highly diverse pools of peptides (short chains of amino acids) bound to DNA tags. When combined with high-throughput sequencing, these PepSeq molecule pools allow for deep interrogation of the antibody response to viruses.

"The data generated using PepSeq allowed for broad characterization of the antibody response in individuals recently infected with SARS-CoV-2 compared with those of individuals exposed only to previous coronaviruses that now are widespread in human populations," ...

In addition to characterizing antibodies that recognize SARS-CoV-2, they also examined the antibody responses of four older coronaviruses: alphacoronavirus 229E; alphacoronavirus NL63; betacoronavirus OC43; and betacoronavirus HKU1. These so called "common" coronaviruses are endemic throughout human populations, but usually are not deadly and cause mild upper respiratory infections similar to those of the common cold.

By comparing patterns of reactivity against these different coronaviruses, the researchers demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 could summon immune system antibodies originally generated in response to past coronavirus infections. This cross-reactivity occurred at two sites in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein; the protein on the surface of virus particles that attaches to ACE2 proteins on human cells to facilitate cell entry and infection.

"Our findings highlight sites at which the SARS-CoV-2 response appears to be shaped by previous coronavirus exposures, and which have potential to raise broadly-neutralizing antibodies. We further demonstrate that these cross-reactive antibodies preferentially bind to endemic coronavirus peptides, suggesting that the response to SARS-CoV-2 at these regions may be constrained by previous coronavirus exposure," said Dr. Altin, adding that more research is needed to understand the implications of these findings.

... "Our findings raise the possibility that the nature of an individual's antibody response to prior endemic coronavirus infection may impact the course of COVID-19 disease," Dr. Ladner said.

Epitope-resolved profiling of the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response identifies cross-reactivity with endemic human coronaviruses, Cell Reports Medicine, (2020)
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(20)30244-5

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10793 on: January 19, 2021, 06:50:07 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

ITALY
Hopeful signs in Italy with daily new cases and number of active cases in decline.
Daily deaths reducing in the last few days but obstinately slowly after an increase in the weeks before.

UK
Number of daily new cases down sharply in the last week or so.
But deaths passed 90K with a daily record increase of 1,610 and a record 7 day daily deaths average of nearly 1,200.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10794 on: January 19, 2021, 09:29:52 PM »
Now we will have to turn our attention toward Israel. 27% of the population has been vaccinated and they keep pushing on, we should soon see a major dropoff in infection rates. I wonder what restrictions they still have and when they will exit those.

oren, what are the rules there now?

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10795 on: January 19, 2021, 10:16:19 PM »
Now we will have to turn our attention toward Israel. 27% of the population has been vaccinated and they keep pushing on, we should soon see a major dropoff in infection rates. I wonder what restrictions they still have and when they will exit those.

oren, what are the rules there now?

In theory, that should have a major effect.  Israel hit a new high in cases a week ago, and is one of the highest infected countries.  It should be interesting to watch.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10796 on: January 20, 2021, 12:57:02 AM »
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review:

Quote
SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a cohort of 43,000 antibody-positive individuals followed for up to 35 weeks

Background Reinfection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been documented, raising public health concerns. Risk and incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection were assessed in a large cohort of antibody-positive persons in Qatar.

Methods All SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positive persons with a PCR-positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test were individually investigated for evidence of reinfection. Viral genome sequencing was conducted for paired viral specimens to confirm reinfection.

Results Among 43,044 anti-SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who were followed for a median of 16.3 weeks (range: 0-34.6), 314 individuals (0.7%) had at least one PCR positive swab ≥14 days after the first-positive antibody test. Of these individuals, 129 (41.1%) had supporting epidemiological evidence for reinfection. Reinfection was next investigated using viral genome sequencing. Applying the viral-genome-sequencing confirmation rate, the risk of reinfection was estimated at 0.10% (95% CI: 0.08-0.11%). The incidence rate of reinfection was estimated at 0.66 per 10,000 person-weeks (95% CI: 0.56-0.78). Incidence rate of reinfection versus month of follow-up did not show any evidence of waning of immunity for over seven months of follow-up. Efficacy of natural infection against reinfection was estimated at >90%. Reinfections were less severe than primary infections. Only one reinfection was severe, two were moderate, and none were critical or fatal. Most reinfections (66.7%) were diagnosed incidentally through random or routine testing, or through contact tracing.

Conclusions Reinfection is rare. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy >90% for at least seven months.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249731v1

But it doesn't matter (if true). All their brains have been fried anyway.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10797 on: January 20, 2021, 01:10:10 AM »
Israel's Virus Czar: First Dose Of Vaccine Less Effective Than Pfizer Data Shows
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-virus-czar-says-1st-dose-less-effective-than-pfizer-indicated-report/amp/
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/1611070395-israel-s-virus-czar-first-dose-of-vaccine-less-effective-than-pfizer-data-shows

The first dose of the Pfizer vaccine offers less protection against COVID-19 than US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer originally claimed, Israel's coronavirus czar told Hebrew media on Tuesday. 

"Many people have been infected between the first and second injections of the vaccine," Nachman Ash told Army Radio, adding that the first dose is "less effective than we thought" and "lower than [the data] presented by Pfizer."

Pfizer itself says a single dose of its vaccine is about 52% effective.

By contrast, those who had received their second dose of the Pfizer vaccine had a six- to 12-fold increase in antibodies, according to data released by Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer on Monday.

Nachman Ash reportedly says it's not certain vaccines can protect against mutated coronavirus strains; 12,400 Israelis were infected with virus after receiving 1st shot; this figure includes 69 people who have received the second dose.

Over 2 million Israelis have had their first Pfizer shot. Over 400,000 have had the second.

Last week, Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of the Health Ministry’s public health department, announced that the vaccine curbs infections by some 50 percent 14 days after the first of the two shots is administered. She said that the data was preliminary, and based on the results of coronavirus tests among both those who have received the vaccine and those who haven’t, who are are serving as a de facto control group.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/

At the same time, however, other, somewhat contrary data was released by Israeli health maintenance organizations: According to figures released by Clalit, Israel’s largest health provider, the chance of a person being infected with the coronavirus dropped by 33% 14 days after they were vaccinated; separate figures recorded by the Maccabi health provider showed the vaccine caused a 60% drop in the chances for infection after taking the first shot.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-antibodies-may-not-stop-transmission-of-virus-study-finds-655635

... Amid warnings that 30% to 40% of the new infections were being driven by a Covid-19 variant first identified in the UK, the Israeli cabinet was meeting on Tuesday to consider tightening existing restrictions. Some analysts, however, have put the prevalence of the new variant at lower levels.

The cabinet had been warned by Ash that the new variant was set to become the main source of infections in Israel within weeks.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2021, 01:16:46 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10798 on: January 20, 2021, 04:07:13 AM »
Now we will have to turn our attention toward Israel. 27% of the population has been vaccinated and they keep pushing on, we should soon see a major dropoff in infection rates. I wonder what restrictions they still have and when they will exit those.

oren, what are the rules there now?
A (third) general lockdown begun a few weeks ago was extended until the end of January. Theoretically stores are closed except essential ones, services are closed, malls are closed, restaurants are closed except for home delivery, schools are closed, events are forbidden, meeting other people is forbidden with some few caveats, offices are closed except for essential employees. Compliance is much lower than the first lockdown in March, and the reality very different than what the rules say. Many stores have become essential or switched to online so in essence are open and you can walk in with a wink. Personal services (hairdresser etc.) can be had by illegal home visits. You can go anywhere with a good excuse and meet anyone. At most you might encounter a police checkpoint, all reported in traffic apps so can be avoided easily even where they exist. Some things are indeed closed like restaurant sit-down, malls and theaters. Schools are open in broad defiance for some sectors. Masks are generally worn but compliance is lower in some sectors, and actual masking is often sloppy. No wonder infection rates per capita are higher than even the UK and the US, but hopefully things will improve slowly as the lockdown continues.

The main issue is that the same population sectors which are responsible for most of the spread of the virus due to flaunting of social distancing rules are also those where vaccination rates are the lowest. These sectors are still holding crowded weddings if you can believe it, and keeping schools open despite state-dictated closure. (Yeah enforcement in Israel is poor and politically-driven).

Vaccination rate has slowed sharply from 100-150k per day to less than 50k per day mainly due to limitations of vaccine availability, but also by what seems to me like a slowdown in the uptake rate as the initial pool of people who want the vaccine got it. I get the feeling the total vaccination rate will taper off much earlier than 100%. Initially only people over 60 and were eligible, but a large number aged 50 and 40 got vaccinated anyway by standing in lines, sometimes for hours, hoping for leftovers which are quite common given the difficult logistical limitations of the Pfizer vaccine. In addition some special sectors such as military personnel and teachers and of course medical personnel got vaccinated regardless of age.

Number of hospitalized persons in serious condition is hovering at very high levels but has not grown in the last three days, and the 7-days average of new infections has finally hit a plateau.
It is still unknown how much the vaccines slow infections, but considering the antibody studies I can't believe it will not be a major effect. So in February we *should* see a much improved situation on both infections and hospitalizations.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2021, 04:32:35 AM by oren »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10799 on: January 20, 2021, 07:38:18 AM »
Now we will have to turn our attention toward Israel. ...
A (third) general lockdown begun a few weeks ago was extended until the end of January....

..... So in February we *should* see a much improved situation on both infections and hospitalizations.

thanks for this, keep us updated! your country i now a giant laboratory