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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 593947 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10900 on: January 29, 2021, 08:37:14 PM »
Good luck silkman ...

------------------------------------------

Macron: AstraZeneca Vaccine Seems ‘Quasi-Ineffective’ On Older People
https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-vaccine-europe-astrazeneca-macron-quasi-ineffective-older-pe/amp/

PARIS — French President Emmanual Macron said Friday the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine appeared to be “quasi-ineffective” on people older than 65 — just hours before the EU’s drugs regulator approved it for use on all adults.

“The real problem on AstraZeneca is that it doesn’t work the way we were expecting it to,” Macron told a group of reporters, including POLITICO, in Paris. “We’re waiting for the EMA [European Medicines Agency] results, but today everything points to thinking it is quasi-ineffective on people older than 65, some say those 60 years or older.”

Later in the day, the EMA gave the vaccine the green light. It said: “There are not yet enough results in older participants (over 55 years old) to provide a figure for how well the vaccine will work in this group. However, protection is expected, given that an immune response is seen in this age group and based on experience with other vaccines; as there is reliable information on safety in this population, EMA’s scientific experts considered that the vaccine can be used in older adults.”

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-authorisation-eu

... Macron said problems with the AstraZeneca jab will complicate the vaccination strategy in the EU, given that it is largely based on prioritizing vaccinating the senior population and healthcare workers. He said another unforeseen twist was that the vaccines that are more complicated to produce and store — those based on the mRNA technology that had never been used before to produce a vaccine — are the ones that appear to perform best.

... “When I listen to the scientists who say we accelerate the mutations with only one injection because the virus adapts… we are lying to people when we tell them they’ve been vaccinated by getting one injection of a vaccine that consists of two injections,” Macron added.

----------------------------------------------------

Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 Vaccine is 66% Effective in Global Trial, But 85% Effective Against Severe Disease, Company Says
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/29/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-results/index.html

Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 single-shot vaccine was shown to be 66% effective in preventing moderate and severe disease in a global Phase 3 trial, but 85% effective against severe disease, the company announced Friday.

The vaccine was 72% effective against moderate and severe disease in the US, the company said.

It's a striking difference from vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, and it may give pause to people uncertain about which vaccine to get or when they can get one. The vaccines already on the market in the US are about 95% effective overall against symptomatic Covid-19, with perhaps even higher efficacy against severe cases.

The vaccine's efficacy against moderate and severe disease ranged from one country to another: 72% in the US, 66% in Latin America and 57% in South Africa. This was measured starting one month after the shot.

In South Africa, 95% of cases in the trial were due to a variant known as B.1.351, which is known to be more contagious and carries mutations that may make the virus less susceptible to the antibody immune response -- including antibodies prompted by vaccination.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

But for Dr. Mathai Mammen, the company's global head of research and development, the key result was how effective the vaccine was at preventing severe disease -- regardless of variant or age group.

"Across all geographies, across all variants, we see 85% protection" against severe disease, he said. That trend increased over time, with no severe cases in the vaccinated group after day 49, according to the company.

From one month after the shot, all hospitalizations and deaths occurred in the placebo group.

The results are based on an analysis of more than 44,000 participants in eight countries, with 468 total cases of Covid-19 split between those receiving the vaccine or placebo. The results have not been published in a peer-reviewed journal, but the company said it plans to do so "in the coming weeks."

Side effects appear to be lower with this vaccine than the already approved ones, too.

Meanwhile, Novavax, a Gaithersburg, Maryland-based biotechnology firm, showed its COVID-19 candidate vaccine to be safe and roughly 90% effective against the virus

------------------------------------------

CDC director Walensky: Community Spread of South African Variant Is Here
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0128-sc-detects-COVID-variant.html

Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that community spread of the highly contagious South African variant of the coronavirus is likely already occurring in the United States.

-------------------------------------------

‘People Are Scared’: COVID-19 Outbreak Rattles Crew of the Warship Chafee
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2021/01/29/people-are-scared-covid-19-outbreak-rattles-crew-of-the-warship-chafee/

The U.S. Chafee pulled into San Diego from Hawaii for training last Saturday and has been grappling with a COVID-19 outbreak that sailors onboard and internal documents obtained by Navy Times suggest is decimating the crew.

U.S. 3rd Fleet officials confirmed Wednesday that some Chafee personnel had tested positive for the coronavirus, but declined to say how many cases had emerged among the guided-missile destroyer’s crew, citing Pentagon policy for not specifying such numbers.

“The ship remains able to meet its mission,” Cmdr. Sean Robertson said in an email Wednesday. “No Chafee sailors have been hospitalized and all positives are in isolation.”

But two petty officers aboard the ship tell Navy Times that dozens of sailors have been removed in recent days after either testing positive or coming in close contact with those who have.

A page from the ship’s “ROM Personnel Tracker” document obtained by Navy Times Wednesday shows 41 sailors listed as having either tested positive or been in close contact with infected shipmates out of a crew of about 350.

Geoff Ziezulewicz and David B. Larter
ROM is mil-speak for “Restriction of Movement,” the term for when service members quarantine for COVID-related reasons.

Eleven of those listed sailors are culinary specialists.

One petty officer who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retribution said in a message to Navy Times that several of the ship’s cooks tested positive for COVID-19 while the ship was transiting from Hawaii to San Diego, and that the galley has been closed for roughly a week as a result.

“Before pulling into San Diego we had seven people in quarantine and three tested positive, all the cooks that come into contact with the whole crew,” the petty officer said.

Another petty officer who also requested anonymity for fear of retribution said COVID cases have since spread to the information technology division, weapons department and engineering.

“No one is giving us information,” the petty officer added.

The sailors also questioned why the entire ship wasn’t getting tested for COVID.

“After they canceled the all-hands testing, we knew they didn’t want to deal with it,” the petty officer said.

One petty officer reported a shortage of N95 masks onboard, as well.

“Today, one of my junior sailors asked me what the difference is between the Navy and prison,” the petty officer said. “I didn’t have an answer for him. I was confused because this is not normal.”

... “This is actually a very scary thing,” one petty officer said in a message Wednesday night. “They just quarantined five more people while I was telling you this.”

---------------------------------------

... Diamond Princess déjà vu all over again
« Last Edit: January 29, 2021, 08:53:41 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10901 on: January 30, 2021, 04:17:01 AM »
Oregon health workers administer Covid-19 vaccines in snowstorm to stranded motorists
Rather than waste leftover doses that would expire as they were stuck in the snow, the workers gave them to people on the side of the highway.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/oregon-health-workers-administer-vaccines-snowstorm-stranded-motorists-n1256054

They had a physician and all the necessary paperwork to assure the people would be followed up for the second shot.
Video ➡️  https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/oregon-health-workers-administer-expiring-vaccine-to-stranded-drivers-100193861738
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10902 on: January 30, 2021, 11:10:05 AM »
Covid: The devastating toll of the pandemic on children

...

'Closing schools closes lives'
The closure of schools is, of course, damaging to children's education. But schools are not just a place for learning. They are places where kids socialise, develop emotionally and, for some, a refuge from troubled family life.

Prof Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, perhaps put it most clearly when he told MPs on the Education Select Committee earlier this month: "When we close schools we close their lives."

He says the pandemic has caused a range of harms to children across the board from being isolated and lonely to suffering from sleep problems and reduced physical activity.

But it's not just the closure of schools. The stress the pandemic has put on families, with rising levels of unemployment and financial insecurity combined with the stay-at-home orders, has put strain on households up and down the land.

The NSPCC says the amount of counselling for loneliness provided by its Childline service has risen by 10% since the pandemic started. Neil Homer, who has been volunteering for the service since 2009, has never known anything like it. "It's had a devastating impact," he says.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55863841
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10903 on: January 30, 2021, 11:41:13 AM »
with 9 children reported dead in 2 Yanomami villages in the Amazon , there may be much worse to  come for children than the 'devastating impact' of what has already happened .


The Americas
Brazil team probing possible COVID-19 deaths among Yanomami
By David Biller | AP
Jan. 28, 2021 at 7:08 p.m. GMT
RIO DE JANEIRO — The Brazilian agency that provides health care for the Indigenous has sent a team to the Yanomami people’s territory in the remote Amazon rainforest to investigate a report that nine children died with COVID-19 symptoms, officials said Thursday.

Júnior Hekurari Yanomami, a member of the Indigenous group who is president of the local health council, alerted the Sesai agency this week that five children had died in one village and four children in another, all with symptoms of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus. He received the information second-hand from residents of each village.

Hekurari told The Associated Press by phone that the nine victims died in January and were not tested for the coronavirus. He also said that neither of the two villages near the border with Venezuela — Kataroa and Waphuta — had received visits from government health workers in more than 60 days, nor had he heard of any Sesai team headed there as of Thursday afternoon.

AD

Since the onset of the pandemic, there has been widespread concern that Yanomami communal living practices, their distance from modern health facilities and the influx of illegal gold miners into their lands could render them more vulnerable to the virus. So far, the worst of those fears haven’t materialized, with Sesai data saying that of the 541 indigenous people who have died in Brazil from COVID-19, 10 were Yanomami.

Sesai, which is part of Brazil’s health ministry, said in its emailed statement that it investigates all suspected COVID-19 deaths in Indigenous lands. It has a sanitary unit in charge of the Yanomami territory, which is bigger than the U.S. state of Maine and home to 28,000 people in 371 villages.

There are at least 25 people in the Waphuta village with COVID-19 symptoms, Hekurari said, and on Thursday two children with serious symptoms were waiting to flown from Yanomami territory to a hospital in Roraima state’s capital Boa Vista.

AD
Jesem Orellana, a researcher with the state-run Fiocruz Amazonia institute who has worked with Yanomami in the past, said by phone that the group is among the most vulnerable in Brazil. As such, the recent deaths could have been due to COVID-19 or stemmed from another illness like pneumonia and exacerbated by a long period without government medical assistance, Orellana said.

Sesai didn’t immediately provide information about when was the last time its health workers visited the two villages in question.

Indigenous people are in a priority group for Brazil’s coronavirus vaccination program and began receiving their shots last week, with Sesai expecting to inoculate 410,000 Indigenous people over age 18 in a first phase, the agency said in a separate statement.

Copyright 2021 The Associated Press.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10904 on: January 30, 2021, 01:43:18 PM »
Covid: The devastating toll of the pandemic on children

...

'Closing schools closes lives'
The closure of schools is, of course, damaging to children's education. But schools are not just a place for learning. They are places where kids socialise, develop emotionally and, for some, a refuge from troubled family life.

Prof Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, perhaps put it most clearly when he told MPs on the Education Select Committee earlier this month: "When we close schools we close their lives."

He says the pandemic has caused a range of harms to children across the board from being isolated and lonely to suffering from sleep problems and reduced physical activity.

But it's not just the closure of schools. The stress the pandemic has put on families, with rising levels of unemployment and financial insecurity combined with the stay-at-home orders, has put strain on households up and down the land.

The NSPCC says the amount of counselling for loneliness provided by its Childline service has risen by 10% since the pandemic started. Neil Homer, who has been volunteering for the service since 2009, has never known anything like it. "It's had a devastating impact," he says.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55863841

Just another example of the cure being worse than the cause.  Children are the lowest at risk demographic.  Schools should be opened to foster their development.  Of course the rich don’t care, yet have all hired tutors to educate their own.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10905 on: January 30, 2021, 10:29:48 PM »

Variant COVID Among Triggers for Grim Surge in Manaus, Brazil
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/variant-covid-among-triggers-grim-surge-manaus-brazil

In one of the most puzzling and worrisome developments in the pandemic, scientists are racing to explain what's happening in Manaus, Brazil, a city of 2.2 million at the edge of the country's rainforest that is experiencing a second explosive outbreak, even though the first one was so bad it was thought to have produced herd immunity.

As the situation deepens in Manaus, overwhelming the city's health system again, researchers from Brazil and the United Kingdom yesterday said four possibilities might explain the recent dramatic resurgence, including variant SARS-CoV-2 viruses that arose in Brazil. They published their analysis yesterday in The Lancet.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

The city's outbreak last spring stunned the world with images of dead bodies in the streets, people buried in cardboard caskets, and mass graves at local cemeteries. Seroprevalence studies over the summer estimated that 76% of Manaus residents had been infected, above the basic 67% herd immunity threshold.

However, a new surge that began in December has overrun the health system again, which prompted pleas for other countries to help by sending oxygen supplies.

Well, that's a depressing read.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10906 on: January 30, 2021, 10:54:14 PM »
manaus had 3700 deaths, which means - considering Brazil's average age of 33  - that (using 0,5% IFR ) they had 740 k infected out of a population of 2,2 M. That is 35% not 76%. The seroprevalance study was based on a very small segment, blood donors, and this overestimated true immunity. No surprise here

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10907 on: January 30, 2021, 11:27:19 PM »
Quote from: El Cid
... manaus had 3700 deaths

Where did you get that count? Do you have a source? From when to when?

----------------------------

As Covid death rate soars, race to dig graves in Brazil's Manaus
https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20210127-as-covid-death-rate-soars-race-to-dig-graves-in-brazil-s-manaus

With more than 3,000 burials in January alone, the Amazon rainforest city of Manaus does not remember a deadlier month.

... About three-quarters of the city's dead end up at the Nossa Senhora Aparecida cemetery, near the banks of the Rio Negro, where workers brave the oppressive tropical sun in top-to-toe protective plastic gear to clear land for new graves.

To save space, they are also erecting dozens of vertical, concrete crypts, each able to hold 48 coffins or urns stacked over four tiers. These will hold up to 3,000 bodies.

Over the past two weeks, Manaus recorded more than 100 burials per day, with a record of 213 on January 15.

Almost half (1,419) of the 3,165 funerals recorded in Manaus from January 1-22 were officially due to the pandemic -- many of the rest are thought to be victims of an overburdened health system unable to deal with the sudden surge.

----------------------------------------------

Surging in remote and poor areas, Brazil's COVID-19 death toll is 2nd highest in the world
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5891108

Study Estimates 76 Percent of Brazilian City Exposed to SARS-CoV-2
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-estimates-76-percent-of-brazilian-city-exposed-to-sars-cov-2-68272/amp

... Since the pandemic started, the city has had more than 73,000 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and some 3,000 deaths, according to official figures. However, experts agree that the real figures are probably much higher, as few tests are performed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-cases-idUSKCN21V1X1

According to a study published in a Brazilian journal, the number of total deaths in Manaus in April was more than 4.5 times higher than in previous years.

https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-311X2020000706001&tlng=pt
« Last Edit: January 31, 2021, 12:00:53 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10908 on: January 31, 2021, 12:01:24 AM »
The rainy season began in Manaus in December, coincident with the rise in cases. Flu and evidently COVID correlate with the monsoon in tropical regions. That is why Manaus' first outbreak occurred at the end of their last rainy season (March - April) and the same for Ecuador.

The death toll in Navajo Nation is pushing .6% of the entire population btw, if there were anything amiss in Manaus they would need a death toll exceeding that which would be ~14K.

Navajo Nation has seen 1,011 deaths out of a population of 173,669 for an overall fatality rate of .58%.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10909 on: January 31, 2021, 03:11:42 AM »
Covid: The devastating toll of the pandemic on children

...

'Closing schools closes lives'
The closure of schools is, of course, damaging to children's education. But schools are not just a place for learning. They are places where kids socialise, develop emotionally and, for some, a refuge from troubled family life.

Prof Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, perhaps put it most clearly when he told MPs on the Education Select Committee earlier this month: "When we close schools we close their lives."

He says the pandemic has caused a range of harms to children across the board from being isolated and lonely to suffering from sleep problems and reduced physical activity.

But it's not just the closure of schools. The stress the pandemic has put on families, with rising levels of unemployment and financial insecurity combined with the stay-at-home orders, has put strain on households up and down the land.

The NSPCC says the amount of counselling for loneliness provided by its Childline service has risen by 10% since the pandemic started. Neil Homer, who has been volunteering for the service since 2009, has never known anything like it. "It's had a devastating impact," he says.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55863841

Just another example of the cure being worse than the cause.  Children are the lowest at risk demographic.  Schools should be opened to foster their development.  Of course the rich don’t care, yet have all hired tutors to educate their own.

This is untrue.
Children who don't go to school develop perfectly fine and are happier for it, are more likely to go to tertiary education and finish their degree, more likely to start a business, work a job they enjoy, and much more.

Not going to school is the problem, it is a society that isn't designed to have kids be kids that is the problem.

Also, while school-aged children are less likely to develop a serious case of Covid, they are more likely to be super-spreaders throughout society.

The counseling for loneliness is easily resolved using this wonderful thing called the internet. My homeschooled kids have been using it to keep in touch with their friends the entire time. And while they missed playing in person, they also understood why it was required and accepted that as part of the solution.

As an aside, I wonder how much of a drop in counseling there has been for kids being bullied or who have anxieties caused by going to school?

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10910 on: January 31, 2021, 08:04:18 AM »
Quote from: El Cid
... manaus had 3700 deaths

This study has been making waves but noone seems to do the maths. This is the source:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwitkMj4ycXuAhUKM-wKHQuiACQQFjADegQICxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.medrxiv.org%2Fcontent%2F10.1101%2F2020.09.25.20201939v1.full.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2ynkQ-l7T5qcvNQxanahhp

(5th hit in Google for manaus excess death)

This is what it says:

We calculated 3,457 excess deaths in Manaus, Brazil, between 19 March and 24 June 2020 representing 0.16% of the city’s population.

And even the "adjusted-for-everything" blood donor study says:

"In Manaus, a lower seroprevalence (14%, in June) was found in a random household sample of 250 people"

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6526/288

BTW the 14% number is likely not far from the truth as that would mean that 0,14*2,2 Million = 308 000 were infected. Part of the 3457 excess deaths is very likely not COVID as healthcare collapsed, so we could say that 2500 deaths for 308 thousand infected = 0,8% IFR.

All in all, Manaus likely was not above 20-30% infected, no wonder there was a next wave

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10911 on: January 31, 2021, 08:26:27 AM »
This is untrue.
Children who don't go to school develop perfectly fine and are happier for it, are more likely to go to tertiary education and finish their degree, more likely to start a business, work a job they enjoy, and much more.

Not going to school is the problem, it is a society that isn't designed to have kids be kids that is the problem.

Also, while school-aged children are less likely to develop a serious case of Covid, they are more likely to be super-spreaders throughout society.

The counseling for loneliness is easily resolved using this wonderful thing called the internet. My homeschooled kids have been using it to keep in touch with their friends the entire time. And while they missed playing in person, they also understood why it was required and accepted that as part of the solution.

As an aside, I wonder how much of a drop in counseling there has been for kids being bullied or who have anxieties caused by going to school?

I don't know how old your kids are, buy with 14 and 15, it isn't as easy as what you describe. In elementary school or younger, this would not have been a problem, excepted for the kids where the parents don't have time/the competences to help.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10912 on: January 31, 2021, 08:49:14 AM »
This is untrue.
Children who don't go to school develop perfectly fine and are happier for it, are more likely to go to tertiary education and finish their degree, more likely to start a business, work a job they enjoy, and much more.

Not going to school is the problem, it is a society that isn't designed to have kids be kids that is the problem.

Also, while school-aged children are less likely to develop a serious case of Covid, they are more likely to be super-spreaders throughout society.

The counseling for loneliness is easily resolved using this wonderful thing called the internet. My homeschooled kids have been using it to keep in touch with their friends the entire time. And while they missed playing in person, they also understood why it was required and accepted that as part of the solution.

As an aside, I wonder how much of a drop in counseling there has been for kids being bullied or who have anxieties caused by going to school?

I don't know how old your kids are, buy with 14 and 15, it isn't as easy as what you describe. In elementary school or younger, this would not have been a problem, excepted for the kids where the parents don't have time/the competences to help.

I don't want to drag this off topic so I will keep it short.
When kids are homeschooled for multiple years and are teens, they are, from what I have observed (so anecdotal) calmer than schooled kids. They are still "teens" though, but not as bad.
Time can be found if you want to, competence is fixed via outsourcing of self directed learning.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10913 on: January 31, 2021, 11:05:32 AM »
Rodius, here you are arguing from your own perspective.

There are plenty kids that get extra food through schools.
There are many families with not enough computers or space especially if they have a bunch of kids.
Normally there alternative study places (in libraries) but those are closed.
There is a subset of kids with issues that need to be checked on , lots of those were ´missing´ for weeks during the first round.

Etc etc.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10914 on: January 31, 2021, 07:27:02 PM »
 ::)

Oklahoma trying to sell $2 million of hydroxychloroquine
Quote
      • Officials in Oklahoma are working to offload $2 million worth of unwanted hydroxychloroquine.
      • Former President Donald Trump had championed the unproven drug that was later found ineffective for COVID-19.
      • Oklahoma officials are attempting to sell the drug back to the distributor the state purchased it from.
...
https://www.insider.com/oklahoma-officials-trying-to-sell-hydroxychloroquine-stockpile-2021-1
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10915 on: January 31, 2021, 09:05:59 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

being prone to depression I wish I had never started to tabulate the data. But here is end of January for Italy and UK.

ITALY
The graphs show that the number of active cases, new cases and deaths are all going down - but gradually. But with 450k active cases, 12k new cases per day (but reducing) and the mortailty rate of concluded cases stuck at just over 4% one must assume a few 10's of thousands of deaths to come.

UK
The one really good piece of data from the graphs is the sharply reducing daily new cases. Another good piece of data is the rollout of the vaccine which is going well. This should mean that new cases in vulnerable groups should be very low by end of February.

But daily deaths are still nearly 1,200 per day and active cases are increasing. With a mortality rate of concluded cases well above 5.5% my guess is that we will be very lucky to see new deaths below 50,000. Will the UK death toll per million people go up from 5th highest in the owrld?

ps:- Looks like I get my jab sometime next week.

Click an image to enlarge
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10916 on: February 01, 2021, 03:11:37 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


UK
The one really good piece of data from the graphs is the sharply reducing daily new cases. Another good piece of data is the rollout of the vaccine which is going well. This should mean that new cases in vulnerable groups should be very low by end of February.

But daily deaths are still nearly 1,200 per day and active cases are increasing. With a mortality rate of concluded cases well above 5.5% my guess is that we will be very lucky to see new deaths below 50,000. Will the UK death toll per million people go up from 5th highest in the owrld?

Worldometer's active case numbers are a GIGO fantasy.
Hospital occupancy in the UK peaked  at 39204 on 18th January, and latest data is 34783 for 28th January. Peak on ventilators was 4077 on 24th January, latest data is 3918 on 28th January.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Deaths look to have peaked on 19th January, so far 1324 deaths have been reported for 19th January, there'll still be a few to be added as reports come in, but it looks extremely unlikely for any subsequent day to overtake 19th January.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

James' model projects 10-17k deaths by the end of March. I think its lowballing, but its a pretty robust model and its not going to to be anywhere near 50k, probably not even 20k.
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1355926750761545734

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10917 on: February 01, 2021, 05:20:29 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK
The one really good piece of data from the graphs is the sharply reducing daily new cases. Another good piece of data is the rollout of the vaccine which is going well. This should mean that new cases in vulnerable groups should be very low by end of February.

But daily deaths are still nearly 1,200 per day and active cases are increasing. With a mortality rate of concluded cases well above 5.5% my guess is that we will be very lucky to see new deaths below 50,000. Will the UK death toll per million people go up from 5th highest in the owrld?


James' model projects 10-17k deaths by the end of March. I think its lowballing, but its a pretty robust model and its not going to to be anywhere near 50k, probably not even 20k.
https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1355926750761545734

By end of March probably not 20K but what about after that? Could easily be ~13k and still running at 50  (range 10 to 80) a day. If the numbers then slowly drop to 1 or 2 a day but this continues for 10 years or more then 20k becomes rather likely even without the occasional flare up where mutations avoid vaccination immunity. I hope it can be eliminated completely but there are likely some countries with vaccinations levels not quite high enough that it could well remain as a low level endemic disease. From time to time cases will be brought into countries and even with high vaccination levels there will be small clusters.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10918 on: February 01, 2021, 06:56:28 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World and US data attached

Some basic trends - fast reduction in new cases and fast reduction in increase in active cases, slow reduction in daily deaths, and a wild card outside the data - new variants (e.g. British and S Africa identified).

Deaths to come seem to depend on how quickly the daily deaths follow the fall in daily new cases, and also for how long the fall in daily new cases can be maintained in the next few months. For example in Italy the fall in daily new cases is somewhat up and down. (see earlier post)

click to enlarge images



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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10919 on: February 01, 2021, 07:25:04 PM »
Using 7 day averages in each:

Israel cases peaked 14 Jan
deaths appear to have peaked 25 Jan - 11 days later

UK cases peaked Jan 9
deaths peaked Jan 23 - 14 days later
earlier peak cases Nov 16
deaths Nov 28 - 12 days later

14 days is not much longer than 11, but the UK deaths also seem to be declining only slowly after the peak.

Doubt we can draw much in the way of conclusions from that.

Was hoping to see if more vaccinations causes faster rate of fall in deaths than what the cases were doing ~11 to 14 days before. Curious late and slow UK deaths fall probably unrelated to vaccinations but doesn't help with seeing effects of vaccinations.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10920 on: February 01, 2021, 07:53:51 PM »
Murder By Design: Trump Appointees Aggressively Lobbied to Deny States COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Funds
https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/31/trump-officials-lobbied-to-deny-states-money-for-vaccine-rollout/

WASHINGTON — Top Trump officials actively lobbied Congress to deny state governments any extra funding for the Covid-19 vaccine rollout last fall — despite frantic warnings from state officials that they didn’t have the money they needed to ramp up a massive vaccination operation.

Without the extra money, states spent last October and November rationing the small pot of federal dollars they had been given. And when vaccines began shipping in December, states seemed woefully underprepared

The previously unreported lobbying efforts underscore that even after the Trump administration spent billions helping drug makers develop Covid-19 vaccines, it not only dismissed states’ concerns about the help they would need to roll them out, but actively undermined their efforts to press Congress to get the funding they needed.

Much of the lobbying push came from Paul Mango, the former deputy chief of staff for policy at the Department of Health and Human Services. ... Far from denying his efforts, Mango doubled down in an interview with STAT — and even accused states of pressing for the money to bolster their empty tax coffers.

... Mango suggested that his lobbying efforts were an attempt to protect taxpayers from wasteful government spending.

... Mango also made a similar argument, repeatedly, about the CDC, according to a second Democratic aide. At the time, Trump’s CDC Director, Robert Redfield, was requesting $6 billion for states’ efforts on the vaccine rollout. Mango said the money Redfield requested wasn’t needed, according to the aide.

Mango told STAT this week that Redfield’s 2020 request was “lobbying Congress for money behind our back,” referring to the Trump administration.

“I call it the mutual-admiration society — they were trying to help their friends at the state public health offices even though they didn’t have any real plan to spend the money,” Mango said.

Mango wasn’t the only one using the argument. Russ Vought, the head of the White House budget office, likewise argued that states did not need additional funding because they had not already spent the $200 million allocated to them, a Republican Senate aide said. The Republican aide called Vought “obsessed” with the fact that states hadn’t spent the money.

The Republican aide also emphasized that even staunch fiscal conservatives knew that states needed more than $200 million to vaccinate the majority of Americans.

... The lobbying from the Trump administration prompted a flurry of defensive action from state health officials.

“This is extremely unfortunate,” ASTHO and the Association of Immunization Managers wrote. “We believe that it is neither a partisan nor political statement to share the very obvious fact that the vaccination of 330,000,000 Americans safely and effectively will take far more than the $340 million currently allocated to local, state, and territorial governmental public health agencies.”

... “The political people very much believed that it wasn’t their responsibility and it should be left up to the states,” the former adviser said. “The majority of the people running the Trump response at a high political level had zero medical experience or response experience and there was a disconnect between saying, ‘I’ve already given them supplies, it shouldn’t cost anything after that,’ versus understanding that there are costs that have to do with the planning, with the spaces, freezers, with all of the PPE, with the training, documentation, security.”

---------------------------------------

Vaccinations Are Rising as the U.S. Races to Outrun the Rapidly Spreading Variants.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/01/world/covid-19-coronavirus#vaccinations-are-rising-as-the-us-races-to-outrun-the-rapidly-spreading-variants

----------------------------------------------------------

Everyone aboard the U.S. Navy’s guided-missile destroyer Chafee disembarked and went into quarantine at hotels across San Diego this weekend after an unspecified number tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday.

It’s not clear what will happen next, or when, with the warship, which “was in town for Surface Warfare Advanced Tactical Training, or SWATT, and was supposed to head back to Hawaii this weekend.”

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2021/01/30/entire-chafee-crew-headed-into-covid-quarantine/
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10921 on: February 01, 2021, 07:59:03 PM »
White House to Release State Coronavirus Reports Previously Kept Out of Public View In Trump Administration
https://twitter.com/WHCOVIDResponse/status/1355196048835284993

The transition from the Trump to the Biden administration has brought significant changes to the US Covid-19 strategy, and with it, a new level of transparency.

In addition to thrice-weekly virtual press briefings on the pandemic, the Biden administration is making another key change in its outreach to states. The White House will now be publicly releasing its weekly state-specific Covid-19 reports, which began during the Trump administration in June.

A White House official said the administration is "committed to being a partner to states for resources and clear guidance" and will "be transparent even when it is not easy or when the truth is difficult."

Part of that effort includes the sharing of data.

..."We'll enhance areas as needed, like the data presentation of the CDC's 'COVID-19 Tracker' webpage in our ongoing commitment to transparency and information-sharing to our governors and the public," the official said.

https://beta.healthdata.gov/Community/COVID-19-State-Profile-Report-Combined-Set/5mth-2h7d

The Trump White House sent these reports, which included state-specific and national data as well as tailored recommendations, to state officials each week, but refused to provide them to reporters or publish them publicly. In December, the task force removed another layer of transparency, requiring states to reach out to the White House directly to request the reports each week, rather than proactively provide them.
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etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10922 on: February 01, 2021, 08:21:16 PM »
If you compare the US and World data, it is quite impressive.
US : 7 states with more than 10% of the population that has been tested positive
World : only two "countries" - Gibraltar and Andorra
US : 6 states with more than 0.2% death compared to the population
World : only Gibraltar

It is normal that small countries are at the top of the chart because when they have a hot spot, it is directly a high percentage of their population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10923 on: February 01, 2021, 09:20:14 PM »
If you compare the US and World data, it is quite impressive.
US : 7 states with more than 10% of the population that has been tested positive
World : only two "countries" - Gibraltar and Andorra
US : 6 states with more than 0.2% death compared to the population
World : only Gibraltar

It is normal that small countries are at the top of the chart because when they have a hot spot, it is directly a high percentage of their population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
When you account for real numbers, since most of the world underreports much worse than the US, many countries are much above .2% dead. And the infection numbers are meaningless even in the US.

The US is doing better than most EU nations and many developing ones.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10924 on: February 01, 2021, 11:49:06 PM »

By end of March probably not 20K but what about after that? Could easily be ~13k and still running at 50  (range 10 to 80) a day. If the numbers then slowly drop to 1 or 2 a day but this continues for 10 years or more then 20k becomes rather likely even without the occasional flare up where mutations avoid vaccination immunity. I hope it can be eliminated completely but there are likely some countries with vaccinations levels not quite high enough that it could well remain as a low level endemic disease. From time to time cases will be brought into countries and even with high vaccination levels there will be small clusters.

What happens later depends on decisions yet to be made. I think a 4th wave getting into the hundreds per day is quite possible as a result of overconfidence in the numbers vaccinated and the degree to which spread is curtailed by vaccination plus unwillingness to bring back any sort of lockdown when hospitals aren't overloaded. Headline figures aren't going up by another 50k this wave, but there could easily be more than 50k COVID death certificates still to be written this year.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10925 on: February 02, 2021, 03:51:48 AM »
Some good news:

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1356313705684869121

Quote
Israel: We say with caution, the magic has started

Note blue lines, of 60+ years old (first to vaccinate), in the past 2 weeks:

~35% drop in cases
~30% drop in hospitalizations
~20% drop in critically ill

Stronger than in younger people & not seen in previous lockdown



Quote
These patterns were not observed in the previous lockdown, see same graphs for second lockdown

Yesterday we showed even bigger drops in cities vaccinated earlier:



Quote
Israel: Signs of vaccines affecting national pandemic dynamics

Drop in cases & hospitalizations of 60+ y/o in cities vaccinated early

Stronger than in late-vaccinated cities

Stronger than in younger people (only recently eligible)

Not seen in previous lockdown

**Caveats**

« Last Edit: February 02, 2021, 03:57:23 AM by oren »

BeeKnees

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10926 on: February 02, 2021, 09:54:11 AM »
Some not so good news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957504/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5_England.pdf

Evidence has been found that the UK variant has acquired E484K mutations from the south african and Brazilian variant that will make it more capable of evading the vaccine.

Quote
The COG-UK dataset (total sequences 214,159) was analysed on 26/01/2021. The spike
protein mutation E484K (found in VOC 202012/02 B1.351 and VOC 202101/02 P1) has
been detected in 11 B1.1.7 sequences. Preliminary information suggests more than one
acquisition event.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10927 on: February 02, 2021, 05:32:47 PM »
A sad note .. the passing of Captain Tom Moore .. 100 year old fund raiser extraordinaire .. £32 milion for the NHS . It was COVID that got him . He was placed at risk a few weeks ago when I last saw him on telly .  RIP Sir Tom . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10928 on: February 02, 2021, 05:58:04 PM »
Some not so good news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957504/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5_England.pdf

Evidence has been found that the UK variant has acquired E484K mutations from the south african and Brazilian variant that will make it more capable of evading the vaccine.

Quote
The COG-UK dataset (total sequences 214,159) was analysed on 26/01/2021. The spike
protein mutation E484K (found in VOC 202012/02 B1.351 and VOC 202101/02 P1) has
been detected in 11 B1.1.7 sequences. Preliminary information suggests more than one
acquisition event.
Why don't you post peer reviewed research saying the vaccine doesn't work on the different strains? Perhaps because all the research to date shows it is still effective, and a government report from the UK fits your hysterical agenda?

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10929 on: February 03, 2021, 01:00:26 AM »
Some not so good news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957504/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5_England.pdf

Evidence has been found that the UK variant has acquired E484K mutations from the south african and Brazilian variant that will make it more capable of evading the vaccine.

Quote
The COG-UK dataset (total sequences 214,159) was analysed on 26/01/2021. The spike
protein mutation E484K (found in VOC 202012/02 B1.351 and VOC 202101/02 P1) has
been detected in 11 B1.1.7 sequences. Preliminary information suggests more than one
acquisition event.
Why don't you post peer reviewed research saying the vaccine doesn't work on the different strains? Perhaps because all the research to date shows it is still effective, and a government report from the UK fits your hysterical agenda?

Unless you can prove otherwise, the information is from the Govt who are probably sourcing research that supports the information.
While I am skeptical of Govts, before I leap into accusations I first find out if the information given is valid or not..... in essence, Govt information is deemed correct until proven otherwise.... and when it is wrong, it isn't hard to figure it out most of the time.

So, rather than spout out an opinion based on nothing, why not find the research the information is based on and prove it wrong?

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10930 on: February 03, 2021, 01:19:51 AM »
Some not so good news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957504/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5_England.pdf

Evidence has been found that the UK variant has acquired E484K mutations from the south african and Brazilian variant that will make it more capable of evading the vaccine.

Quote
The COG-UK dataset (total sequences 214,159) was analysed on 26/01/2021. The spike
protein mutation E484K (found in VOC 202012/02 B1.351 and VOC 202101/02 P1) has
been detected in 11 B1.1.7 sequences. Preliminary information suggests more than one
acquisition event.
Why don't you post peer reviewed research saying the vaccine doesn't work on the different strains? Perhaps because all the research to date shows it is still effective, and a government report from the UK fits your hysterical agenda?

Unless you can prove otherwise, the information is from the Govt who are probably sourcing research that supports the information.
While I am skeptical of Govts, before I leap into accusations I first find out if the information given is valid or not..... in essence, Govt information is deemed correct until proven otherwise.... and when it is wrong, it isn't hard to figure it out most of the time.

So, rather than spout out an opinion based on nothing, why not find the research the information is based on and prove it wrong?
Yes, governments only tell facts, like how China only has 4K dead and 80K infections, or like how Dr. Fauci said masks are pointless and don't work one year ago today (he is the director of the American CDC).

China has probably had about 1.5 million dead btw, if you go by the citizen reports / excess burials etc that have leaked.

"The government" is not peer-reviewed research, it is a collection of useful stooges for the oligarchs that actually run each country (and the world).

colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10931 on: February 03, 2021, 01:40:48 AM »
I don't write often in this thread, but I want to write something

1.Great news about sputnik v. Not a fan of Russia, but many people knew long time ago that this vaccine was good. I don't mean just random people but medical experts, people that know how vaccines are made. Everything suggested it would be good.  Now proved, I can't even say proved just peer reviewed by people having access to Lancet.

2 But the fckin bureaucracy and politics in every sphere. As we know for sinopharm too that it is good. Millions vaccinated with no major problems,400-500k in Serbia alone in the middle of Europe, no severe issues, Hungary ordering, but the people in Brussels are doing nothing, nothing at all, just talking *** as usual in front of tv, and complaining while many regular citizens are dying. They should never again say they are not basing decisions on politics. Mosf of Europe stopped vaccination with less than 3% vaccinated, and they will keep yelling at people about not following the measures.
They can't even sign a good contract making sure they get what they ask for. Trump was maybe an idiot in some ways but even he was 10x more efficient than gentlemen from EU.I am writing this as a European, Europe was the first region really severely impacted, Europe should be the most developed region, the most advanced healthcare,  the richest region. And everything we saw during the pandemic was failure after failure. Lockdowns and lockdowns, no vaccines, no control over covid, both waves with many deaths,no clear strategy through the whole pandemic. I bet they will reopen later than all others. Later than the middle east, later than Russia, UK(europe but not eu), US, Latin America- all regions that experienced severe covid problems. .And they will still give lessons in the future.Only WHO heads are possibly on the same disaster level as EU heads. They also changed their minds and advices 100 times, with no explanation and information provided why all the sudden did they change theiropinion.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10932 on: February 03, 2021, 07:29:58 AM »
Concerning news from Alberta, Canada.
While the infection rate is slowly dropping, the new, more infectious variant is starting to show up.
Alberta started testing people at two US border crossings, one air and one land.
They detected 28 cases of the new variant which would not otherwise have been identified.
An additional 29 cases were identified in the province, some of which had no known source.
Alberta has taken the lightest touch approach to the pandemic in of all Canada, so when its top doctor extended mandatory quarantine to 24 from 14 days and started to set up those bogey men of conservatives- quarantine hotels, you know it is grave.
I think that we are on the cusp of a new phase of the pandemic.
Far too few people have been fully vaccinated.
Far too few people are taking adequate precautions.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/hinshaw-alberta-covid-coronavirus-1.5897536

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10933 on: February 03, 2021, 07:40:22 AM »
1.Great news about sputnik v. Not a fan of Russia, but many people knew long time ago that this vaccine was good. I don't mean just random people but medical experts, people that know how vaccines are made. Everything suggested it would be good.

I agree with this. Sputnik uses 2 different adenovirus vectors (Ad5 and Ad26) which made it very likely that the payload gets delivered effectively. It does. the study is convincing. Sputnik is most likely a much better vaccine than AstraZeneca's.
Phase 3 Study (The study was organised and monitored by the Moscow branch of the Dutch contract research organisation Crocus Medical. - so hopefully no Putin tricks in it):
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext

I also attach a pic below about efficacy. I would still choose Pfizer/Moderna but if this is what they have, I would take it.

----
As for Sinopharm's 1st generation vaccine: I am not sure about efficacy but it is probably problem-free. It is a very old technology which means safety should not be a problem.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10934 on: February 03, 2021, 08:06:31 AM »
What is our medical science literate members' take on the new variants, such as E484K? Based on what I've read in the news there is a real risk the virus will develop resistance to immunity, whether obtained by disease or vaccination

Even if Covid variants will become partly resistant to vaccines, we can kiss goodbye vaccination certificates for international travel etc.

Obviously it's possible to update the vaccines also, but the challenges in production and distribution remain.

BeeKnees

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10935 on: February 03, 2021, 10:37:39 AM »

Why don't you post peer reviewed research saying the vaccine doesn't work on the different strains? Perhaps because all the research to date shows it is still effective, and a government report from the UK fits your hysterical agenda?

I have no hysterical agenda here and I do not have a peer reviewed research paper, only the information from the government report.

We also already have multiple research papers posted to say the vaccines are less effective against the South African and Brazil strains because of the mutation. 

It would appear that you have jumped on me unnecessarily.


gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10936 on: February 03, 2021, 01:04:19 PM »
Covid news from Australia - an MP called craig kelly has all the answers. I especially like " we've got all the facts you need, we make them on site to suit any requirements ".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/03/come-on-down-to-conspiracy-craigs-24hr-disinformation-warehouse

click image to make it readable
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10937 on: February 03, 2021, 05:20:14 PM »
Covid-19: Study showing Oxford vaccine slows virus spread 'superb' - Hancock

...

It is the first time a vaccine has been shown to reduce transmission of the virus.

The UK has given a first Covid jab to 9.6 million people so far.

The results of the study, which has not yet been formally published, suggest that the vaccine may have a "substantial" effect on transmission of the virus.

...

The data from this latest trial was drawn before new variants, including the South Africa one, emerged.

Asked how protective the Oxford vaccine could be against new mutations, Dr Pollard said he was anticipating "good protection" against the Kent variant and would publish details "very soon".

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55913913

Other promising signs too.

All papers claiming the vaccines are less effective against the South African and Brazil strains because of the mutation are probably theoretical? Soon we will have much more data so we will know.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10938 on: February 03, 2021, 09:37:59 PM »
Single Pfizer Shot 90 Percent Effective After 21 Days: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-pfizer-shot-percent-effective-days.html

A single dose of the Pfizer vaccine provides "very high" protection from COVID-19 after 21 days—without a 'top up' dose in the recommended time frame, according to a new study from the University of East Anglia.

Researchers looked at data from Israel, where the vaccine has been rolled out.

They found that the Pfizer vaccine becomes 90 percent effective after 21 days—supporting UK plans to delay the timing of a second injection.

"We found that the vaccine effectiveness was still pretty much zero until about 14 days after people were vaccinated. But then after day 14 immunity rose gradually day by day to about 90 percent at day 21 and then didn't improve any further. All the observed improvement was before any second injection.

"This shows that a single dose of vaccine is highly protective, although it can take up to 21 days to achieve this.

"And it supports the UK policy of extending the gap between doses by showing that a single dose can give a high level of protection.

"Whilst we do not know how long this immunity will last beyond 21 days without a second booster, we are unlikely to see any major decline during the following nine weeks," he added.

Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of 'real-world' vaccination outcomes from Israel
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10939 on: February 04, 2021, 05:30:41 AM »
I got my 2nd Moderna vaccine shot yesterday and spent today with intermittent headaches, mild fever and a very sore arm.

So now I can continue to practice physical distancing and mask wearing.
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10940 on: February 04, 2021, 06:16:11 AM »
Some not so good news.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957504/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_5_England.pdf

Evidence has been found that the UK variant has acquired E484K mutations from the south african and Brazilian variant that will make it more capable of evading the vaccine.

Quote
The COG-UK dataset (total sequences 214,159) was analysed on 26/01/2021. The spike
protein mutation E484K (found in VOC 202012/02 B1.351 and VOC 202101/02 P1) has
been detected in 11 B1.1.7 sequences. Preliminary information suggests more than one
acquisition event.
Why don't you post peer reviewed research saying the vaccine doesn't work on the different strains? Perhaps because all the research to date shows it is still effective, and a government report from the UK fits your hysterical agenda?

Unless you can prove otherwise, the information is from the Govt who are probably sourcing research that supports the information.
While I am skeptical of Govts, before I leap into accusations I first find out if the information given is valid or not..... in essence, Govt information is deemed correct until proven otherwise.... and when it is wrong, it isn't hard to figure it out most of the time.

So, rather than spout out an opinion based on nothing, why not find the research the information is based on and prove it wrong?
Yes, governments only tell facts, like how China only has 4K dead and 80K infections, or like how Dr. Fauci said masks are pointless and don't work one year ago today (he is the director of the American CDC).

China has probably had about 1.5 million dead btw, if you go by the citizen reports / excess burials etc that have leaked.

"The government" is not peer-reviewed research, it is a collection of useful stooges for the oligarchs that actually run each country (and the world).


Nice cherry pick.
The Govt in question is not China.....

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10941 on: February 04, 2021, 09:58:54 AM »
Congrats tor. One less thing to worry about.
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northsylvania

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10942 on: February 04, 2021, 11:00:49 AM »
WebMD seems to have a good up to date general overview of current Covid-19 news. For example, this article about escape mutations is concerning without being alarmist.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210202/escape-mutations-may-drive-new-covid-resurgence
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10943 on: February 04, 2021, 02:07:54 PM »
Covid-19: Study showing Oxford vaccine slows virus spread 'superb' - Hancock

...

The results of the study, which has not yet been formally published, suggest that the vaccine may have a "substantial" effect on transmission of the virus.

However see also https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1357002666027712515 et seq.

Quote
It's being widely reported that 1 dose of the Astra/Oxford vaccine reduces transmission by 67%. My understanding is that this is not what the paper shows, or what the authors have claimed....

Does this mean infection or transmission is reduced by 67%. It's difficult to know. Certainly the paper is careful not to make this claim. It only talks about reduction of PCR positives by 67% with the 'potential' to reduce transmission.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10944 on: February 04, 2021, 02:20:21 PM »
After-effects from the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine, such as chills, headache and fatigue, are more common among those who have previously had Covid itself, according to data released by the team behind “the Covid Symptom Study”.

The data was collected from those who had their first dose before 4 January 2021 and only relates to those who received the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid vaccine. In total the dataset covers 40,000 vaccine doses, with some participants having received two doses of the jab.

The results, collected by the team from users of the Zoe Covid Symptom Study app, found that 33% of people who have previously had Covid reported at least one such side effect within a week of receiving the jab (the figure covers effects that occurred at least once after the first or the second dose). For those who had not previously had Covid the figure was 19%.

The findings chime with previous discovery that after-effects from various Covid vaccines appear to be stronger after the second dose than the first, as flagged by the US Food and Drug Administration.

The Covid Symptom Study data also suggests this, with 14% of people reporting at least one after-effect within a week of their first dose compared with 22% after their second dose. Again this is likely to be because the body’s immune system responds more forcefully when exposed to the same antigens for a second time.

https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine

--------------------------------------------

One In 20 People Likely to Suffer from ‘Long COVID’
https://covid.joinzoe.com/us-post/long-covid

... The latest analysis of data from thousands of users of the COVID Symptom Study app from ZOE, published as a preprint, shows that one in 20 people are likely to suffer from COVID-19 symptoms lasting more than 8 weeks.

We also found that it’s possible to predict who is likely to develop long COVID based on the very earliest signs of their illness. The more different symptoms a person experienced within the first week of illness, the more likely they were to develop long COVID. Using this together with age, gender and body mass index meant we could accurately predict who is most at risk of developing long-term symptoms.

... Overall, the team found that while most people with COVID-19 reported being back to normal in 11 days or less, around one in seven (13.3%, 558 users) had symptoms lasting for at least 4 weeks, with around one in 20 (4.5%, 189 users) staying ill for 8 weeks and one in fifty (2.3%, 95 users) suffering for longer than 12 weeks.

Extrapolating out to the general UK population, which has a different age and gender makeup compared with the COVID Symptom Study app users, the team estimated that around one in seven (14.5%) of people with symptomatic COVID-19 would be ill for at least 4 weeks, one in 20 (5.1%) for 8 weeks and one in 45 (2.2%) for 12 weeks or more. 

The researchers discovered that older people are much more likely to get long COVID than younger people, although it does occur across all ages. Long COVID affects around 10% of 18-49 year olds who become unwell with COVID-19, rising to 22% of over 70s. Weight also plays a role, with people developing long COVID having a slightly higher average BMI than those with short COVID.

Although men are more likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19, women appear to be slightly more likely to suffer from long COVID than men (14.5% compared with 9.5%), but only in the younger age group.

The researchers also found that people with asthma were more likely to develop long COVID, although there were no clear links to any other underlying health conditions.

Importantly, the more symptoms a person had in the first week, the more likely they were to go on to develop long COVID. 

The team found that long COVID symptoms fell into two broad groups. One was dominated by respiratory symptoms such as cough and shortness of breath, as well as fatigue and headaches. The second group was ‘multi-system’, affecting many parts of the body including the brain, gut and heart.

Long COVID sufferers also reported heart symptoms such as palpitations or fast heartbeat, as well as pins and needles or numbness, and problems concentrating (‘brain fog’).  People who experienced a wide range of symptoms across many body systems were more likely to need a hospital assessment.

People with long COVID were also twice as likely to report that their symptoms had come back again after recovering (relapse) compared with those having short COVID (16% vs 8.4%).

Given that one in twenty people with COVID-19 are likely to be affected by long COVID, the absolute number of people affected by long COVID will only increase as the pandemic wears on, adding up to  potentially hundreds of thousands in the UK and millions worldwide ... Having such large numbers of people affected means specialist services need to be set up urgently with the full financial help for hospitals and GPs.

Attributes and predictors of Long-COVID: analysis of COVID cases and their symptoms collected by the Covid Symptoms Study App
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v1

----------------------------------------------

Study: International Travel Biggest Factor In Death Rate

Early restrictions on international travel might have made a difference in the spread of pandemic in western Europe, including the UK, a new study has found.

Restrictions on international travel had the greatest impact on death rates, according to a study from the University of Aberdeen.

https://www.abdn.ac.uk/news/14653/

They found a million international arrivals was associated with a 3.4% increase in Covid-19 deaths during the first wave of the pandemic.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10945 on: February 04, 2021, 03:36:01 PM »
Covid-19: Study showing Oxford vaccine slows virus spread 'superb' - Hancock

...

The results of the study, which has not yet been formally published, suggest that the vaccine may have a "substantial" effect on transmission of the virus.

However see also https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1357002666027712515 et seq.

Quote
It's being widely reported that 1 dose of the Astra/Oxford vaccine reduces transmission by 67%. My understanding is that this is not what the paper shows, or what the authors have claimed....

Does this mean infection or transmission is reduced by 67%. It's difficult to know. Certainly the paper is careful not to make this claim. It only talks about reduction of PCR positives by 67% with the 'potential' to reduce transmission.

Its difficult to see how people that aren't PCR positive are transmitting it. If you don't have the virus in you, how are you passing it on? The main worry about vaccines not preventing transmission is if they suppressed disease but not infection. If the control of 30 symptomatic and 6 asymptomatic had become 7 symptomatic and 29 asymptomatic, then the effect on transmission might be pretty small, but it became 7 symptomatic and 6 asymptomatic. Small numbers, but not so small that there isn't a clear reduction in the amount of infectious people.

However, a drop of 67% in those capable of passing it on is borderline for whether vaccination is good enough to suppress transmission on its own. e.g. If the UK doesn't raise its game, vaccination will be regarded as complete at 75% of the UK population. When 33% of those vaccinated still transmit the disease that will only drop R by 50% which isn't going to be enough without some continuing interventions.

These numbers are for one shot, and the second shot should improve them, but there's clearly still a risk that COVID seasons occur alongside flu seasons in future despite vaccination.

Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10946 on: February 04, 2021, 05:22:21 PM »
Its difficult to see how people that aren't PCR positive are transmitting it. If you don't have the virus in you, how are you passing it on?

"Asymptomatic" PCR swabs were self administered by the trial participants. From further down the Twitter thread:

Quote
The Astra/Oxford trial asked people enrolled to self-swab every week and send in swabs for testing....

The estimate for reduction in infection will depend on other factors, including the compliance with routine swabbing.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10947 on: February 04, 2021, 06:10:08 PM »
Its difficult to see how people that aren't PCR positive are transmitting it. If you don't have the virus in you, how are you passing it on?

This. If the virus is not detectable at the point of exit, how can it be passed on efficiently?

Also, cases are dropping precipitously everywhere vaccinations are taking place.

I've seen papers that estimate herd immunity as low as 25% if the most important nodes were targeted.

I think things are looking very good right now. Soon Covid 19 will be a rare disease of the unvaccinated.

No more masks. No more distancing.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10948 on: February 04, 2021, 06:46:59 PM »
Its difficult to see how people that aren't PCR positive are transmitting it. If you don't have the virus in you, how are you passing it on?

"Asymptomatic" PCR swabs were self administered by the trial participants. From further down the Twitter thread:

Quote
The Astra/Oxford trial asked people enrolled to self-swab every week and send in swabs for testing....

The estimate for reduction in infection will depend on other factors, including the compliance with routine swabbing.

So? Its still a substantial reduction in infection whatever compliance you assume. To actually confound the effect, asymptomatic people would have to know they were infected and know whether they were on the vaccine or not and change their behaviour as a result of that knowledge. 2/3 is a really rough number, but its not 0. These are volunteers on a medical trial, they are people that are pretty motivated to comply with the protocol not people who are liable to drop out at any time because they can't afford to receive a positive result. Changes in who participates in the infections surveys from one week to the next is an issue when trying to compare this week with last week in the ONS and REACT surveys. Not so much when looking at 3 months worth of vaccine vs 3 months worth of placebo in a vaccine trial.

There's a difference between saying that 67% is the reduction, and there's work still to be done to pin it down better so they don't want to commit to a figure in a scientific publication yet. It isn't 0 and it isn't 100% and it might well not be as near to 100% as it needs to be to suppress COVID without other interventions.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10949 on: February 05, 2021, 07:31:44 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK Data

The graphs show the data all going in the right direction
The 7 day trailing average of deaths dips below 1,000, though still a bit more than the 1st wave peak. Nevertheless the first 5 days of February saw 5,000 deaths.

Even the number of active cases starting to decline (yes - I know some say the worldometers data is rubbish about recoveries and active cases, but that ios what the world is reading).

US Data
All the graphs showing the data going in the right direction except daily deaths, which if it continues would be a real worry.

click images to enlarge
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