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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 595681 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11000 on: February 13, 2021, 02:45:17 PM »
Teachers give thumbs up to new CDC roadmap for reopening schools during pandemic
Feb. 12, 2021
Quote
The CDC said schools can safely reopen as long as certain precautions are in place, raising hopes that students may soon return to classrooms in school districts that have not had in-person education for over a year because of the pandemic.

In its 35-page guide, the CDC reiterated the need for masking, handwashing, contact tracing and social distancing to prevent virus spread.

It also stressed that the safest way to open schools is by making sure there is as little disease in a community as possible, and it included a color-coded chart to help administrators decided what kind of learning is safest based on the rates of new cases per 100,000 people and the percentage of positive coronavirus tests.

It also made clear that while states should prioritize teachers for vaccination, it is not a prerequisite for reopening.

Vaccinations remain a top concern, a recent NEA poll of 3,300 educators found. Just one in five had received a shot, it found, and 85 percent of respondents said teachers should be prioritized for vaccines. And 70 percent said they would feel safer working in-person if they were vaccinated.

President Joe Biden has set a goal of having more than 50 percent of the nation’s schools reopened by the 100th day of his presidency. And the most recent numbers from Burbio, a data service that audits school opening information, suggests the goal is attainable.

Forty-one percent of elementary and high school students are already back in school, getting traditional in-person instruction everyday, according to Burbio’s figures. About 25 percent are doing a hybrid of in-person and virtual education. And 34 percent of K-12 students are currently getting a “virtual only” education. …
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/teachers-give-thumbs-new-cdc-roadmap-reopening-schools-during-pandemic-n1257749
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

nadir

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11001 on: February 14, 2021, 05:36:04 PM »
Massive studies being released on the benefits of Vit D against bad COVID-19 outcomes.
Dr. Campbell has the details.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11002 on: February 15, 2021, 02:14:30 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11003 on: February 15, 2021, 03:35:49 PM »
hi , v_m  .. 'video unavailable' .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11004 on: February 15, 2021, 03:49:02 PM »
Sorry b.c., It seems to work OK on this side of the pond.

Try maybe ...

John Oliver Returns With a Look at the Next Pandemic
https://slate.com/culture/2021/02/john-oliver-next-pandemic-last-week-tonight-alligators.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11005 on: February 15, 2021, 04:49:33 PM »
Study pre-print from the following laboratory.  Pfizer "vaccine" vs. coronavirus variants.
 Read more from the Laboratory:

https://twitter.com/BalazsLab
« Last Edit: February 15, 2021, 09:16:14 PM by harpy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11006 on: February 16, 2021, 12:45:47 PM »
Hospitals Still Ration Medical N95 Masks as Stockpiles Swell
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-hospitals-ration-medical-n95-masks.html

Mike Bowen's warehouse outside Fort Worth, Texas, was piled high with cases of medical-grade N95 face masks. His company, Prestige Ameritech, can churn out 1 million masks every four days, but he doesn't have orders for nearly that many. So he recently got approval from the government to export them.

"I'm drowning in these respirators," Bowen said.

On the same day 1,000 miles north, Mary Turner, a COVID-19 intensive care nurse at a hospital outside Minneapolis, strapped on the one disposable N-95 respirator allotted for her entire shift. .... On this day, she'll wear that mask from one infected person to the next because N95s—they filter out 95 percent of infectious particles—have supposedly been in short supply since last March.

... The logistical breakdown is rooted in federal failures over the past year to coordinate supply chains and provide hospitals with clear rules about how to manage their medical equipment.

Internal government emails obtained by The Associated Press show there were deliberate decisions to withhold vital information about new mask manufacturers and availability. Exclusive trade data and interviews with manufacturers, hospital procurement officials and frontline medical workers reveal a communication breakdown—not an actual shortage—that is depriving doctors, nurses, paramedics and other people risking exposure to COVID-19 of first-rate protection.

... The U.S. government failed to help link buyers to the growing supplies. Now some of those U.S.-based makers are facing major financial losses, potential layoffs and bankruptcies.

In December, Moeller, an appointee of President Donald Trump, grew frustrated while working in the office of CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield.

"(NIOSH) had approved almost 20 U.S. manufacturers to make N95 masks, but had not published any guidance or notice of what is ultimately more than 100 million N95 mask-making capacity a month going unsold," Moeller told the AP.

The internal emails show that Moeller in December alerted NIOSH head Dr. John Howard about the unused U.S. N95 manufacturing capacity.

A few weeks later, as a suggested remedy, Howard said the list of domestic N95 manufacturers had now been published for potential buyers. But the list shows up on page 3 of an obscure newsletter published by a University of Cincinnati toxicologist, after a satirical column on "chin warmers," or improperly worn surgical masks.

... The AP spoke with a dozen procurement officers who buy supplies for more than 300 hospitals across the U.S. All said they have enough N95s now, between two and 12 months worth, sitting in storage.

Even so, all but two of those hospital systems are limiting their doctors, nurses and other workers to one mask per day, or even one per week. Some say they are waiting for the supply to grow even more, while others say they never plan to go back to pre-COVID-19 usage.

N95s still appear on the FDA shortage list, in part because of reports from doctors and nurses who say they still don't have enough. But the government shortage list triggers distributors to limit how many masks they can sell to each hospital.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11007 on: February 16, 2021, 06:31:02 PM »
4 Oregonians fully vaccinated against COVID test positive -- representing some of first such cases in nation


https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/02/4-oregonians-were-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-but-still-tested-positive-representing-some-of-the-first-true-breakthrough-cases-in-the-nation.html

Quote
Four people in Oregon tested positive for COVID-19 even though they’d been fully vaccinated and enough time had passed for their second doses to become fully effective, state public health officials announced Friday.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11008 on: February 16, 2021, 08:41:25 PM »
Quote
Sidelinger said two of the people are from Yamhill County and two are from Lane County. He said they either had no symptoms or mild symptoms.

So you can count that as being effective as they will not burden the health care system.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11009 on: February 17, 2021, 02:37:25 AM »
Here is some information from a relevant case study in Israel.
In one of the top hospitals, in the pathology dept some employees tested positive, and as a result it was decided to screen all employees by PCR, and consequently 12 more were found to be unknowingly positive, of which 7 were already fully vaccinated (i.e. at least 7 days after 2nd Pfizer dose) at the time of acquiring the virus. All 7 had the UK variant and were either totally asymptomatic or very lightly symptomatic.
In order to assess the contagiousness of the vaccinated-positive combination, the hospital approached the cohabiting family members of these 7 employees and tested them by PCR. It is normally estimated that for a family member living in the same household as a positive person the chance of catching the virus is 20%, and with the UK variant this figure is probably higher. A total of 14 such family members (of the vaccinated-positive employees) were tested, but only 1 of them was positive and according to symptom history it is probable he did not catch it from the employee. So expectation of 3+ cohabiting positives, outcome 0-1 positive.
The bottom line of this case study is that it is possible to acquire the virus after full vaccination (not surprising), but that it probably leads to very mild infection, and even more importantly that contagiousness is much reduced. As a reminder, the vaccine was not claimed to prevent infection or contagiousness but was claimed to prevent disease with 95% success.
Of course, the case study is limited and the numbers are small, but the result is still encouraging.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11010 on: February 17, 2021, 10:51:46 AM »
Here is some information from a relevant case study in Israel.
In one of the top hospitals, in the pathology dept some employees tested positive, and as a result it was decided to screen all employees by PCR, and consequently 12 more were found to be unknowingly positive, of which 7 were already fully vaccinated (i.e. at least 7 days after 2nd Pfizer dose) at the time of acquiring the virus. All 7 had the UK variant and were either totally asymptomatic or very lightly symptomatic. ...

Source?  This is important information, worth digging into.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11011 on: February 17, 2021, 11:56:37 AM »
Unfortunately all I could find for now is an article in a Hebrew newspaper, a reliable source in general. I will try to look for more.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11012 on: February 17, 2021, 09:12:45 PM »
UK & Italy Graphs

In the UK the disussion by scientists and in the Government is turning to looking beyond the immediate tasks of vaccination, test and trace etc.

The question widely reported is "what is an acceptable death rate for the population to go about their business without restrictions?". The underlying assumption seems to be a growing belief that covid and its variants may well end up endemic, like the 'flu that on average kills about 17k people a year in the UK.

Some idiots that managed to become Tory MPs are using this to pressurise the Gov to have an early end to lockdown.

The data is encouraging, but..... see below the Italy graphs that show resistance to daily new cases declining.

click to enlarge images
« Last Edit: February 17, 2021, 09:19:30 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11013 on: February 17, 2021, 09:21:36 PM »
World Data & US Data

Yes the graphs are going down fast - but a lot of people are still dying.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11014 on: February 18, 2021, 12:20:24 AM »
Nothing that is an obvious vaccine effect in the overall UK figures yet. Deaths are now on the same steady 25%/week decline as cases. I think it ought to go to 35% in the next two weeks, but it hasn't yet. Its difficult picking out the effect of vaccination in the detail too, because although there are higher rates of decline in the over 85s, they also had a relatively high attack rate and a higher response to lockdown is an expected consequence of that. 
The same thing is seen in the regional picture, London had a high attack rate and has dropped a lot faster in lockdown than other regions. London, E and SE were the three regions with the highest case rates going into lockdown, and the only ones above the average for England, and they are all below average now. Apart from the SW the regional variation has reversed, everywhere else that was below average going into lockdown is now above average. https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1362078410013630469/photo/1


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11015 on: February 18, 2021, 02:08:48 AM »
Impact of COVID-19 In Africa 'Vastly Underestimated' Warn Researchers
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-impact-covid-africa-vastly-underestimated.html

The impact of COVID-19 in Africa has been vastly underestimated, warn researchers in a study published by The British Medical Journal (BMJ) today.

Outside of South Africa, this is the first study to provide systematic surveillance data capturing the impact of COVID-19 in Africa.

Their findings are based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results for 364 deceased people of all ages at the University Teaching Hospital morgue in Lusaka, Zambia between June and September 2020, enrolled within 48 hours of death.

The findings show that COVID-19 deaths accounted for 15-20% of all sampled deaths—many more than official reports suggest and contradicting the widely held view that COVID-19 has largely skipped Africa and had little impact.

They also show that COVID-19 deaths occurred across a wider age spectrum than reported elsewhere and were concentrated among people aged under 65, including an unexpectedly high number of deaths in children.

The absence of data on COVID-19 in Africa has fostered a widely held view that the virus has largely skipped Africa and had little impact. However, this may be an example of the "absence of evidence" being widely misconstrued as "evidence of absence."

To address this evidence gap, a team of international researchers set out to measure the fatal impact of COVID-19 in an urban African population.

Deaths were stratified by COVID-19 status, location, age, sex, and underlying risk factors.

Overall, the virus was detected in 70 (19%) of people. The average age at death was 48 years and 70% were men.

Most deaths in people with COVID-19 (73%) occurred in the community and none had been tested for the virus before death. Among the 19 people who died in hospital, six were tested before death.

Among the 52 people with data on symptoms, 44 had typical symptoms of COVID-19 (cough, fever, shortness of breath), of whom only five were tested before death.

COVID-19 was identified in seven children, only one of whom had been tested before death.

The proportion of deaths with COVID-19 increased with age, but 76% of people who died were aged under 60 years.

The five most common underlying conditions (comorbidities) among people who died with COVID-19 were tuberculosis (31%), high blood pressure (27%), HIV/AIDS (23%), alcohol misuse (17%), and diabetes (13%).

This is an observational study using data from one city, in one African country, over a short three month span, and the researchers point to several limitations, such as relying on the accuracy of medical chart data and being unable to identify deaths indirectly due to COVID-19, such as from heart attacks or strokes.

However, this was a well-designed study, carried out by researchers with a high level of experience in postmortem sampling and data collection, which minimised the potential for false positive results.

As such, the authors say that contrary to expectations, COVID-19 deaths were common in Lusaka, and the majority occurred in the community where testing capacity is lacking.

Yet few who died at health facilities were tested, despite presenting with typical symptoms of COVID-19. Therefore, COVID-19 cases were under reported because testing was rarely done, not because CV19 was rare, they explain.

If these data are generalizable, the impact of COVID-19 in Africa has been vastly underestimated, they conclude.

Covid-19 deaths in Africa: prospective systematic postmortem surveillance study, BMJ (2021)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.22.20248327v1.full-text
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11016 on: February 18, 2021, 02:22:03 AM »
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37366884

Densely sampled viral trajectories suggest longer duration of acute infection with B.1.1.7 variant relative to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2

Quote
To test whether acute infection with B.1.1.7 is associated with higher or more sustained nasopharyngeal viral concentrations, we assessed longitudinal PCR tests performed in a cohort of 65 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 undergoing daily surveillance testing, including seven in fected with B.1.1.7. For individuals infected with B.1.1.7, the mean duration of the proliferation phase was 5.3 days (90% credible interval [2.7, 7.8]), the mean duration of the clearance phase was 8.0 days [6.1, 9.9], and the mean overall duration of infection (proliferation plus clearance) was 13.3 days [10.1, 16.5]. These compare to a mean proliferation phase of 2.0 days [0.7, 3.3], a mean clearance phase of 6.2 days [5.1, 7.1], and a mean duration of infection of 8.2 days [6.5, 9.7] for non-B.1.1.7 virus. The peak viral concentration for B.1.1.7 was 19.0 Ct [15.8, 22.0] compared to 20.2 Ct [19.0, 21.4] for non-B.1.1.7. This converts to 8.5 log10 RNA copies/ml [7.6, 9.4] for B.1.1.7 and 8.2 log10 RNA copies/ml [7.8, 8.5] for non-B.1.1.7. These data offer evidence that SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 may cause longer infections with similar peak viral concentration compared to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2. This extended duration may contribute to B.1.1.7 SARS CoV-2’s increased transmissibility.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11017 on: February 18, 2021, 06:08:03 AM »
More good news about the vaccine from Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-effectiveness-hits-95-hmo-says-same-level-pfizer-achieved-in-trials/

Quote
Vaccine effectiveness hits 95%, HMO says — same level Pfizer achieved in trials
It was previously unclear whether trial rates were attainable in real-world conditions; after fully vaccinating 602,000, Maccabi Health Services says only 608 infected, zero dead

Vaccine effectiveness in a large Israeli sample of inoculated individuals has hit 95 percent, the exact rate anticipated by Pfizer in its clinical trials, Maccabi Healthcare Services announced Wednesday.

It has now fully vaccinated 602,000, and only 608 have been infected, the equivalent of 1 in 1,000, it said. Of these, none have died.
Just 21 of those infected were hospitalized: 11 with mild symptoms, 3 with moderate symptoms and just 7 with severe symptoms. This leads Maccabi’s doctors to believe that the vaccine is not only reducing the number of confirmed patients, but also reducing the severity of illness in those who do fall ill.

When Pfizer achieved 95% efficacy in clinical trials, the medical community was impressed but unsure whether this could be replicated in the real world. Maccabi’s data indicates that it can.

“The effectiveness of the vaccine in Israel is stable and high,” said Maccabi statistics analyst Anat Ekka Zohar.

To measure effectiveness, scientists measure infection levels among people who have had at least a week pass since their second shot, and compare it to rates among unvaccinated people.

Ekka Zohar believes that the slight rise in effectiveness since last week’s statistics, which put effectiveness at 93%, is the fact that many young people are newly vaccinated, and that they are responding very well to the vaccine.

Data that includes young people is seen as important, as it gives insight into how the vaccine performs among people with a relatively large amount of social contact. Younger people tend to have more daily interactions than the elderly, who were the priority of Israel’s vaccination campaign until recently.

“We clearly see very low morbidity rates among the group of young people who were vaccinated as early as seven days after the first dose of the vaccine,” Ekka Zohar said.

Speaking as Israel tries to boost vaccination rates after a slowdown in the campaign, she urged people to take note of the new stats and head to vaccination centers.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11018 on: February 18, 2021, 06:28:40 AM »
With a few more details, from the WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/covid-2021-02-17/card/h7dahtdcexUmppWeFCUa

Quote
New Israeli Study Suggests 95% Efficacy Rate With Pfizer Vaccine

A Covid-19 vaccination center in Israel on Feb. 4ODED BALILTY/ASSOCIATED PRESS
TEL AVIV—An Israeli study published Wednesday found a 95% efficacy rate against Covid-19 among 600,000 people one week after receiving two doses of Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE’s vaccine.

The study by Maccabi Healthcare Services, Israel’s second largest healthcare provider, found that just 608 out of 602,000 vaccinated people became infected with Covid-19. Of those who became infected in this group, only 21 were hospitalized, and of those, just seven developed serious symptoms.

Maccabi compared the vaccinated group with a control group of 528,000 people who weren't yet vaccinated or infected with Covid-19 and had similar demographic profiles. From this control group, 20,621, or 3.9%, became infected in the same period.

The results of the Maccabi study are similar to those of the original clinical study conducted by Pfizer, which found 95% efficacy against the virus. They are also similar to a study released Sunday by Israel’s largest healthcare provider, Clalit, which found a 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 infections among a vaccinated population.

“The findings show, without doubt, that the vaccine is the most effective way to eliminate the risk of COVID infection," said Dr. Anat Ekka-Zohar, the director of the division of data & digital health at Maccabi Healthcare Services.

Thanks to a steady supply of vaccines from Pfizer and an advanced digital healthcare system, Israel has vaccinated a higher percentage of citizens than any other country. Currently, 44% of all Israelis, or two-thirds of those eligible to be vaccinated, meaning those above 16 years old, have received their first shot, according to the Israeli health ministry.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11019 on: February 18, 2021, 06:58:18 AM »
This is wonderful news Oren! As Europe will gets lots of mRNA vaccines in Q2, and seasonality kicks in at the same time, I still believe that we will see a very rapid disappearence of COVID in May/June here. Same is true fo US/UK but a bit earlier. COVID will be mostly gone by summer (but likely come back next winter as only 40-60% of the population will choose to get a vaccine)

RikW

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11020 on: February 18, 2021, 10:50:42 AM »
In the Netherlands it's around 80% in polls and rising, and for older age groups even higher; So that's good news I'd say

SimonF92

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11021 on: February 18, 2021, 02:03:15 PM »
This is wonderful news Oren! As Europe will gets lots of mRNA vaccines in Q2, and seasonality kicks in at the same time, I still believe that we will see a very rapid disappearence of COVID in May/June here. Same is true fo US/UK but a bit earlier. COVID will be mostly gone by summer (but likely come back next winter as only 40-60% of the population will choose to get a vaccine)

I am really frustrated by the UK vaccine policy. Unlike the Israelis and Europe as a whole, the UK gvt has decided to not follow the data on dosing regime for the vaccines, instead greatly extending the time between dose-1 and dose-2. Fundamentally we cannot compare the UK and Israel at this point in terms of what may come. I really hope the gamble to give more people one dose pays off.

As a pragmatist I personally would have followed the data and methodology that came out of the clinical trial.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11022 on: February 18, 2021, 02:34:14 PM »
These mRNA vaccines seem to be extremely specific, which would elicit an extremely specific immune response.

The second dose has more adverse effects than the first one, which suggests a stronger immune response.

Severe Covid is more than anything, an immune disease.

That second dose seems to be more than just a "booster".

However, given the size of the epidemic in the UK, it may have saved some lives to use the one dose. Right now, it seems like the strategy is working.

With the many vaccines coming online and spring right around the corner, this thing is almost over.

Can't wait to get my shot.
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Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11023 on: February 18, 2021, 02:39:02 PM »
Risk of Death From COVID-19 3.5 Times Higher than Flu


That is all?  I thought it was worse than that.

That is with attempts to slow the spread when the flu doesn't get that response.

It excludes the part where those who cant get medical treatment are more likely to die.

It excludes the ongoing medical problems that Covid inflicts that influenza doesn't....

and the list goes on.
The big factor it excludes is the risk of needing hospital treatment if you get infected. This is the relative chances once you get into hospital not once you get infected.

Exactly.  A much higher proportion of influenza patients do not need admission to hospital.

SimonF92

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11024 on: February 18, 2021, 02:57:13 PM »
Amen to that Archimid.

I just pulled some data, are we seeing an effect here in our over-80s or is this just noise?

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/recent-falls-in-age-specific-estimates-of-the-case-fatality-ratio-in-england/
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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11025 on: February 18, 2021, 03:32:58 PM »
Risk of Death From COVID-19 3.5 Times Higher than Flu


That is all?  I thought it was worse than that.

That is with attempts to slow the spread when the flu doesn't get that response.

It excludes the part where those who cant get medical treatment are more likely to die.

It excludes the ongoing medical problems that Covid inflicts that influenza doesn't....

and the list goes on.
The big factor it excludes is the risk of needing hospital treatment if you get infected. This is the relative chances once you get into hospital not once you get infected.

Exactly.  A much higher proportion of influenza patients do not need admission to hospital.

It is impossible to compare influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in this way, because the former is 'just the flu' and the latter is presented as The Plague.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11026 on: February 18, 2021, 06:35:29 PM »
In the Netherlands Hertsel.NL is starting up the debate about reopening and the costs of lockdowns.

Their main point is that the damage being done by the lockdown far exceeds the damage prevented.

Damages include losses/delays in education , delayed health care, depressions, job losses and bankrupties.

They proposes ending lockdown starting the 1st of march.  Vulnerable people can work from home or get a special sick leave until they are vaccinated. There can be dedicated time slots for shopping (we already have them but probably not everywhere).

Some other numbers: most deaths are over 65. So years of lives saved is about 5 according to them. In general research over many countries this number is more like 10 years.

This different approach with only the vulnerable in a bubble accelerates herd immunity while not overburdening the health care system.

The cost of 2 months of school closures is 30 billion long term.

The lockdown was necessary in spring and also in autumn but a while after that the numbers stabilized now at about 3000 active cases. The max we can handle is 15K so you can put a lockdown threshold at 8k new cases per day. 

Seems sensible especially since we have parts of the vulnerable population vaccinated.
Will be interesting to see which way the debate turns.



 
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11027 on: February 18, 2021, 06:48:43 PM »
In the Netherlands it's around 80% in polls and rising, and for older age groups even higher; So that's good news I'd say

That is really good news. I based my opinion on my country's willingness. I doubt that we will go above 50%. (especially as summer comes and covid "disappears" more people will say that vaccination is unnecessary...but we shall see)


***
On another note: I agreed with Britain's stance on using one does and vaccinate as many as you can (and worry about the second doe later). I would have done the same had I been in a position to decide. Based on the results of the phase 3 trials that seemed to be the sensible decision I believe

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11028 on: February 18, 2021, 09:52:22 PM »
Well, here I get the feeling that when the vaccine will be available for me, it won't help anymore because of the many mutated variant that are slowly taking more space.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11029 on: February 18, 2021, 10:19:33 PM »
Well, here I get the feeling that when the vaccine will be available for me, it won't help anymore because of the many mutated variant that are slowly taking more space.

Strange, my take is the opposite.

The vaccines maybe less effective but they still work very well, particularly in preventing serious illness.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11030 on: February 19, 2021, 12:07:35 AM »
Well, here I get the feeling that when the vaccine will be available for me, it won't help anymore because of the many mutated variant that are slowly taking more space.

Strange, my take is the opposite.

The vaccines maybe less effective but they still work very well, particularly in preventing serious illness.

This take holds for other variants and vaccines so far, but not the AZ/SA combination. AZ appears useless against SA for mild and moderate disease. Even if it was ten times better against severe disease, ten times nothing is still nothing. Its possible it retains some effectiveness, but there's not enough trial data on severe outcomes to tell. There's an anti-SA booster in development for AZ and its needed.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11031 on: February 19, 2021, 01:36:14 AM »
Well, here I get the feeling that when the vaccine will be available for me, it won't help anymore because of the many mutated variant that are slowly taking more space.

Precisely.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11032 on: February 19, 2021, 01:40:21 AM »
More data from Israel, and as usual just a media report lacking the source scientific article. This one is pre-publication non peer reviewed and I can't find it anywhere - but the news is great regarding vaccine effects on infections. With such numbers herd immunity should be achievable.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/297103

Quote
Health Ministry study: Pfizer vaccine reduces serious cases, mortality by 90%
Senior Health Ministry officials work with Pfizer on study which shows high vaccine effectiveness in reducing overall infection.

A new study conducted by the Israeli Health Ministry and the Pfizer company shows that the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine reduces coronavirus infections, serious cases, and mortality from the disease by at least 90%.

The study states that the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection is 89.4%. The authors, including the director general of the Health Ministry, Prof. Hezi Levy, and the head of public health services, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, qualified this figure, explaining that people who have been vaccinated face fewer restrictions on their movement and are less likely to be tested for the coronavirus, and stated that further study needs to be done on the prevention of asymptomatic infection.

The Health Ministry stated that the figure regarding the effectiveness against infection is the least certain in relation to the other figures presented - the vaccine is 93.7% effective against symptomatic infection, 93.3% effective against cases of infection serious enough to require hospitalization, 93.9% effective in preventing cases in which the patient is in serious or critical condition, and 92.9% effective in preventing mortality from the coronavirus. Unlike other tests, in this case only the population which was tested were people who had received the second dose of the coronavirus vaccine at least seven days prior.

The pharmaceutical companies have focused on the effectiveness of disease vaccines with symptoms in the majority of their trials, and have not tested whether the vaccines prevent people from getting infected - and therefore also from infecting others. The new data suggests that those who have been vaccinated should not be able to transmit the virus to others, at least when it comes to the common variant and the British mutation of the coronavirus. The Health Ministry and Pfizer write that this means Israel should be able to bring the epidemic under control if enough of the population is vaccinated.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11033 on: February 19, 2021, 03:35:53 AM »
oren, I think this may be the study...

Patterns of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of a broad national immunization program
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.08.21251325v1.full-text

-------------------------------------------

Israeli Study Shows Pfizer Vaccine 94 Percent Effective
https://amp.dw.com/en/israels-clever-coronavirus-vaccination-strategy/a-56586888
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-israeli-pfizer-vaccine-percent-effective.html

Israel's largest healthcare provider said Sunday a study of more than half a million fully vaccinated Israelis indicated the Pfizer/BioNTech jab gave 94 percent protection against COVID-19.

Clalit Health Services said that in a groundbreaking project its researchers tested 600,000 subjects who had received the recommended two doses of the US-German Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and the same number of people who had not been innoculated.

"There was a 94 percent reduction in the rate of symptomatic infection and a 92 percent decrease in the rate of serious illness compared to 600,000 similar (subjects) who were not vaccinated," Clalit said in a Hebrew-language statement.

"Vaccine efficacy is maintained in all age groups, including those aged 70+," it added.

"The publication of preliminary results at this stage is intended to emphasise to the unvaccinated population that the vaccine is highly effective and prevents serious morbidity," Clalit said Sunday.

It added that the study covered people who had received the second shot at least seven days before being tested, and would be expanded in future.

Patterns of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of a broad national immunization program
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.08.21251325v1.full-text

------------------------------------------

Genetics May Play Role In Determining Immunity to COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-genetics-role-immunity-covid-.html

In a PLOS ONE paper, published online February 11, 2021, researchers at University of California San Diego School of Medicine report that individual immune response to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may be limited by the major histocompatibility complex or MHC, a set of variable genes that code for cell surface proteins essential for the adaptive immune system.

Specifically, senior authors Maurizio Zanetti, MD, professor of medicine, Hannah Carter, Ph.D., associate professor of medicine and colleagues examined how the MHC interacts with two kinds of lymphocytes or immune cells called T and B.

... "The production of antibodies against proteins requires productive cooperation between the T lymphocyte and the B lymphocyte, which must both recognize adjacent antigen sequences initiated by the MHC on B cells. Peptide sequences in close proximity engage the two cells preferentially and non-randomly. The MHC serves as the link between the T and B lymphocytes in this process."

Based on this reasoning, the researchers computationally analyzed all possible fragments of the spike protein RBM, which is a trigger for both the human immune response and for vaccine activity, in connection with the more than 5,000 different MHC molecules represented in the global human population.

To their surprise, the authors found that the average propensity of the MHC to display RBD-derived peptides is low. Since MHC binding is an indirect measure of the probability that the T cell will be activated and stimulate the B lymphocyte into producing antibodies against the RBM, the authors said it follows that the production of RBM-specific antibodies could be hampered by the poor fitting of these portions of the virus to the MHC.

"This then could lead to poorer neutralizing antibody responses," said first author Andrea Castro, a member of Carter's lab. "And in the case of SARS-CoV-2, the poor presentation of key RBD fragments by many MHC alleles could stand as an obstacle to the production of neutralizing antibodies targeting the RBM."

The scientists suggest that the immunological history of individuals may play a role in T cell response and subsequent activation of B lymphocytes that can produce robustly targeted neutralizing antibodies.

The potential implications of the study are twofold, said Carter.

"One is that the ability to generate antibodies with potent neutralization activity may vary considerably from individual to individual within the general population, reflecting the large genetic diversity of the MHC. The other is that lack of effective cooperation between T and B lymphocytes may affect the longevity of neutralizing antibody responses in infected people."

The authors note that multiple studies have reported that neutralizing antibodies in infected persons (hospitalized patients, health care workers and convalescent individuals) drop within three months.

"To these considerations, one may add the impact of the newly discovered mutations in the RBM, such as those in the UK, South African and Brazilian variants of the virus," said Zanetti. The topology of the mutations in these new variants is indicative of further potential breakdown of the immunological relay between T and B lymphocytes, with additional negative impact on the ability of individuals in the global population to generate high quality and long-lived neutralizing antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2."

Andrea Castro et al, In silico analysis suggests less effective MHC-II presentation of SARS-CoV-2 RBM peptides: Implication for neutralizing antibody responses, PLOS ONE (2021).
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0246731
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11034 on: February 19, 2021, 11:24:30 AM »
Thanks V_M, but that's not the one... it should have Hezy Levi and Sharon Alroy Price as authors, if I understand correctly.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11035 on: February 19, 2021, 12:24:46 PM »
Quote
Their main point is that the damage being done by the lockdown far exceeds the damage prevented.

This almost sounds like a binary argument. There are two choices.

0=Complete lockdown
1=Full Open

In reality, the level of "openness" can take any value between 0 and 1. There is an optimal value of "openness" for your vaccination rate and projected immunity.

On projected immunity:

 It seems to me that the evidence is growing that vaccines provide more than just protection against severe Covid. The vaccines seem to stop people from passing covid to others. This effect can be maximized by giving the vaccine to people very likely to pass it to others.

If there is contact tracing data, hopefully, it is being used to find groups that are most likely to pass on Covid and give that group vaccination priority.

Finally. Masks. You can have almost complete openings if good masking practices are followed.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11036 on: February 19, 2021, 02:13:37 PM »
Found it, maybe not...

Sharon Amit, Gili Regev-Yochay, Arnon Afek, Yitshak Kreiss, Eyal Leshem, Early rate reductions of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 in BNT162b2 vaccine recipients, The Lancet, (Feb18, 2021)
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2900448-7

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00448-7 (embargoed)
« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 03:32:49 PM by vox_mundi »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11037 on: February 19, 2021, 03:33:10 PM »
Germany Sees Drop in Virus Cases Flatten as Variant Surges
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-germany-virus-cases-flatten-variant.html

The head of Germany's disease control agency warned Friday that a decline in new coronavirus cases the country saw has leveled off while the share of cases involving more contagious variants is rising.

Robert Koch Institute President Lothar Wieler said Germany may be heading toward another "turning point" in the pandemic after weeks of falling infections.

"The decline of recent weeks doesn't appear to be continuing," Wieler told reporters in Berlin, noting that in one German state - Thuringia - weekly case numbers are on the rise again.

... Earlier this week, he said the variant first detected in Britain accounts for 22% of the cases in Germany, up from 6% two weeks ago
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11038 on: February 19, 2021, 06:16:16 PM »

 It seems to me that the evidence is growing that vaccines provide more than just protection against severe Covid. The vaccines seem to stop people from passing covid to others. This effect can be maximized by giving the vaccine to people very likely to pass it to others.

If there is contact tracing data, hopefully, it is being used to find groups that are most likely to pass on Covid and give that group vaccination priority.


Yeah. That's not how it works in much of the U.S.

Wealthy DeSantis Supporters Get Their Own Special Vaccine Boutique

https://crooksandliars.com/2021/02/wealthy-desantis-supporters-get-their-own

"Tonight a county commissioner in southwest Florida admitting that she chose two of the richest and predominantly white zip codes in her county to receive vaccine doses," Burnett said.

"She said she was doing exactly what Republican Governor Ron DeSantis wanted after he brought a vaccine drive to the county. She also admitted she asked workers to put her on the list to be vaccinated. One source calling this a, quote, 'V.I.P.' list. Nikki Freed, Florida's agriculture commissioner, top Democrat in the state. Commissioner, this is pretty incredible. This commissioner, Vanessa Baugh, she is admitting all this, saying it chose two affluent zip codes to receive these vaccines, then ostensibly wanted to get on the line herself. She's admitting all this."

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11039 on: February 19, 2021, 08:28:11 PM »
CDC data show coronavirus vaccine has caused 501 deaths and over 11,000 adverse reactions (so far)

https://pandemic.news/2021-02-12-cdc-data-coronavirus-vaccine-caused-501-deaths.html


Quote
According to reports submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of Jan. 29, at least 501 people have died after receiving the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines. These numbers were reflected in the reports filed between Dec. 14, 2020 and Jan. 29, 2021.

The data came from the CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a federal program that collects information regarding adverse events that occur after a person receives a vaccine.

According to the latest data, procured from VAERS on Jan. 29, 11,249 people have reported experiencing an adverse reaction to either the Pfizer or Moderna coronavirus vaccine.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11040 on: February 19, 2021, 08:50:27 PM »
The vaccine did not cause those death they just occurred close to the time of receiving it. Since most countries are vaccinating vulnerable populations first this number is actually skewed on the high side.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11041 on: February 20, 2021, 11:55:52 AM »
Pfizer just announced a big change to its coronavirus vaccine that’s fantastic news

...

 Pfizer and BioNTech just announced a huge change to the way the drug can be stored, revealing the vaccine can be stored at -25°C to -15°C (-13°F to 5°F) for up to two weeks and then at even higher temperatures five days before use.

Pfizer and BioNTech submitted new data to the FDA that shows the stability of the vaccine at -25°C to -15°C (-13°F to 5°F). These are temperatures usually found in pharmaceutical freezers and refrigerators. The companies have proposed an update to the EUA prescribing information, which would allow the institutions involved in COVID-19 vaccination campaigns to make changes to their vaccine distribution protocols and expand the vaccine’s reach.

The two companies explained that the new FDA submission includes stability data generated on vaccine batches manufactured in the past nine months, including batches that were used for clinical trials. Pfizer and BioNTech will also issue the same documentation to other regulators around the world that have authorized the drug for emergency use. Since mid-December, the vaccine has been used in various markets, including the US, UK, Europe, Israel, and more.

..

https://bgr.com/2021/02/19/coronavirus-vaccine-pfizer-temperature-range-improvement/
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11042 on: February 20, 2021, 04:37:41 PM »
Elon Musk got 4,000 SpaceX workers to join a COVID-19 study. Here's what he learned.
Quote
SpaceX recruited workers from California to Florida who were willing to have their blood tested monthly starting in April.

In June, samples Dr. Alter processed from local workers foretold worsening cases in Texas. Instead of a typical 3% positivity rate for the virus, 12% of the samples suggested infection. She reran them multiple times and confirmed that they were correct, which led the company to send infected workers home and advise them to isolate.

Of the roughly 4,000 SpaceX workers tested multiple times, 300 became infected with Covid-19. Researchers had enough data on 120 people to dig deeper into their infections and subsequent levels of antibodies to draw conclusions in the study.

"The good news is most of the vaccines induce [antibody] levels way higher than these levels" for people who get both doses, Dr. Alter said. "So far it is pretty clear that we are hitting levels that are orders of magnitude higher with vaccination."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said that having antibodies may provide some protection, but it is unknown how long it may last. Researchers and diagnostic companies are working to understand what level of antibodies confers immunity.

"It would be great to have a clear numerical cutoff to say...above this level [of antibodies] you're protected, below you're not, but we don't have such a cutoff right now," said Philip Dormitzer, Pfizer Inc.'s viral-vaccine research-and-development chief.

SpaceX and its research partners continue testing each month and are now monitoring for reinfection, particularly as mutations spread, researchers involved in those efforts said. So far, they have observed some reinfection among workers who were found to have low levels of Covid-19 antibodies in past testing.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/elon-musk-got-4000-spacex-workers-to-join-a-covid-19-study-heres-what-he-learned
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11043 on: February 21, 2021, 12:17:58 AM »
If in a country seroprevalence is 40%, vaccination of risk groups is well underway and spring is about to start (due to AGW it's already 15-20 °C this weekend). Would it be safe for that country to immediately lift all lockdown restrictions?

With safe I mean that the health care system cannot possibly collapse.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11044 on: February 21, 2021, 02:13:51 AM »
If in a country seroprevalence is 40%, vaccination of risk groups is well underway and spring is about to start (due to AGW it's already 15-20 °C this weekend). Would it be safe for that country to immediately lift all lockdown restrictions?

With safe I mean that the health care system cannot possibly collapse.

If they enforced masks in indoor public places, I think they would probably be okay. 40% is quite high and with vaccinations in at risks groups happening, it seems plausible that outbreaks could be contained when they happen (so long as they have good contact tracing)

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11045 on: February 21, 2021, 02:24:01 AM »
If in a country seroprevalence is 40%, vaccination of risk groups is well underway and spring is about to start (due to AGW it's already 15-20 °C this weekend). Would it be safe for that country to immediately lift all lockdown restrictions?

With safe I mean that the health care system cannot possibly collapse.

The UK would be in 5-7 day doubling territory with that scenario, so it depends how many doublings you can take before enough of the population is jabbed. (almost everyone over 50 plus select groups under 50 to control hospitalisation)

It also depends on what you mean by collapse. The UKs hospitals got far too full to provide proper care in the third wave,  (and need further emptying before levels of care are fully restored). There may well have been 10k extra deaths in the third wave due to hospitals being overstretched, mortality seems to have been about 30% higher once the hospitals had filled up, but its hard to tell how much was B.1.1.7 being nastier and how much was ICUs running at a quarter of their normal staffing levels in order to keep accepting patients. It didn't get to the point were patients were being turned away wholesale, but there were occasions when people died of heart attacks and strokes because there was no ambulance to go to them as a result of COVID pressure.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11046 on: February 21, 2021, 07:45:30 AM »
If in a country seroprevalence is 40%, vaccination of risk groups is well underway and spring is about to start (due to AGW it's already 15-20 °C this weekend). Would it be safe for that country to immediately lift all lockdown restrictions?

With safe I mean that the health care system cannot possibly collapse.

Problem is we do not know much about seasonality: what exactly causes it (sunlight? temperatures? dry weather? being outside more? a combination of this?), and how seasonal  COVID is.

My estimates (based on observation, extrapolation and guesstimation) is that with the new variants R is 3+ during winter and 1,5-2 during summer. I am not sure how much it is now but as the end of February is still prime influenza season, I would say we are still at around 3 and would slowly go down starting April (maybe 2,5?) and May (hitting 2?). So right now, you would still need 66% immune . You would likely need 50% in May and 40% in June to have herd immunity.

BTW, no country has 40% seroprevalence to my knowledge. Most of Europe and the USA is 15-20% (from infections) based on surveys . 

If mask use reduces R by 1/3, then you would need 50% immune now for opening and likely only 20-30% in May/June. (2/3*2*(1-0,3) = cca 1). That is why I am quite sure that COVID is going to quickly disappear in April-June. 20% will have been infected anyway by June "naturally", you only need very few vaccines to top it up.

Now, as to the original question: if you somehow have 40% immune (eg. 20 infected, 20% vaccinated) now, then without mask use you would still likely  have an R of (1-0,4)*3= 1,8 which is way too high and would quickly overburden healthcare systems. With mask use, I would say (especially if you have vaccinated the old) that you are a go. Of course it still depends on the starting value of infections and current hospitalizations. if the starting values are high then even an R of 1,2 would cause problems in a few weeks.


Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11047 on: February 21, 2021, 01:05:51 PM »
Problem is we do not know much about seasonality: what exactly causes it (sunlight? temperatures? dry weather? being outside more? a combination of this?), and how seasonal  COVID is.

It's probably a combination, with humidity being a dominant factor I suspect, vitamin D also playing a role. But the main point is that, as with other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 is seasonal. And spring is on its way.

Quote
BTW, no country has 40% seroprevalence to my knowledge. Most of Europe and the USA is 15-20% (from infections) based on surveys . 

I'm mostly following Austria, The Netherlands and Croatia, and there haven't been any regularly updated serological surveys there. But now there has been a small survey in Croatia (non-governmental, of course, because the government doesn't want to know about seroprevalence) and preliminary results show that 40% of the population have been infected with SARS-CoV-2.

I think the same goes for Bosnia, because nobody there adheres to any measures. Both in Croatia and Bosnia, after the peak, cases and hospitalisations dropped precipitously, even without full lockdowns (which poor countries simply cannot sustain). This, to me, was a sign of seroprevalence starting to play a role.

For instance, at this moment, Croatia has very low daily cases:



Even though Croatia has been having relatively few measures (because they can't afford them):



Which is why I believe Croatia should be able to open up completely two weeks from now, and I hope they don't make the mistake of continuing the strategy of fear during spring and summer, and have some sort of better plan next year (because the COVID-narrative won't be over for a long time).

But I was wondering about the R-calculations, hence my question (and thanks for the answers). So, with mask use for a couple more weeks, Croatia should be able to completely open up and be out of the woods (until a more suitable variant/mutant has been found to further the interests of concentrated wealth).
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 01:35:30 PM by Neven »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11048 on: February 21, 2021, 04:46:43 PM »
If in a country seroprevalence is 40%, vaccination of risk groups is well underway and spring is about to start (due to AGW it's already 15-20 °C this weekend). Would it be safe for that country to immediately lift all lockdown restrictions?

With safe I mean that the health care system cannot possibly collapse.

Strange definition for safe.

Not sure what other countries are doing but the U.S. is not locked down. Individual states have different approaches but in Illinois, a very Democratic state, there are no businesses shut down. I got a haircut yesterday. In personal service businesses (barbers, salons) you need to remain masked at all times, a sensible requirement I would think. Bars and restaurants are open in Chicago but only at 25% capacity. If you step into a bar or restaurant, you discover they have far fewer customers than allowed. I met three people for breakfast on Wednesday. They are activists in the community where I work. Sonia's father died of COVID in June and her uncle nearly died. Everyone I talk to knows many people who have gotten sick, some very sick and all of us know persons who have died.

Daily deaths have been dropping steadily for weeks and daily new cases for longer still. We should be dropping below 2000 deaths per day soon and are averaging about 70K new cases per day. Strange how our perceptions shift over time. When we initially hit a daily death rate of 1000 last April, Americans were generally frightened, appropriately I might add. For the past 11 months, we only dipped below 1000 last summer and briefly in the fall. Now we're approaching 2000 deaths per day and there is no general hysteria.

Your suggestion the COVID hysteria was some plot by the uber wealthy to gain more wealth is just odd. In the U.S., the oligarchs, the very wealthy, have hysterically screamed that Americans just need to suck it up and live normal lives to protect the American way of life. By this, they mean the economy must be protected so they can continue to garner most of the income and wealth it generates. The Republican Party which takes its cues from the wealthy has fought any and all restrictions the past year. If the very wealthy and powerful had their way, we would have had well over 1 million dead Americans, perhaps 2 million. As it is, we have over 1/2 million.

Despite being open for business, the travel industry is like the walking dead. The airline and hotel industry is getting beaten to death. The cruise industry? Forget about it. Restaurants, bars, theaters, fitness clubs, anywhere people would tend to congregate indoors are struggling to survive. This is NOT due to any restrictions imposed on the businesses. This is because people who are still watching family, friends, coworkers and neighbors get dreadfully sick and sometimes die are not going to risk illness to visit their favorite restaurant. It would seem that Americans are deciding for themselves what safe means. We are really proponents of that personal freedom thing. It defines us more than anything else.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2021, 04:55:27 PM by Shared Humanity »

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11049 on: February 21, 2021, 05:25:14 PM »
For the Netherlands the most recent cited seroprevalence was 20% in the Sanquin blood donors group. You can reasonably extrapolate that to 25% because the blood donors are a relatively old group and we know there has been a lot of spread among the young population which is not measured well.

Vaccinated are at 5% so altogether we have 30%. No citation since this from an expert quoted in a newspaper article who was arguing this was to low.

However i think it is important who is vaccinated, see death per ages groups here:
https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/grafieken

So no deaths (or hardly any) under and the bulk is over 70. Sadly they do not provide the same break up for hospitalisations and IC cases but is has a similar spread. Since we are actively vaccinating the groups that end up in the IC they have a much higher rates of antibodies. They are now slowly working through the over 70ies group that lives at home. They will receive vaccine via the GP. The same age group in cares homes should be fully vaccinated by now.

As i wrote above the other risk groups are being vaccinated now.

I think we can reopen schools and the shops if we just keep the 1,5m rule and masks for a couple of months. This way the only part of the population that needs to shelter are the at risk groups that have not had a vaccine.

One argument against that by the same expert: it is not possible to fully isolate them. Yet this has always been true the whole pandemic.

The general instruction for critical personal was to only stop working after positive tests. This is fine for the Covid ward (since everybody who shows up there should have covid anyway) but this is also what got it into a number of care homes. And the same rule applied for visiting home care.

So as long as you have a reasonably high amount of coverage of the groups most at risk for hospital/IC/death you can open up.



Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.