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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 598112 times)

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11100 on: February 26, 2021, 09:51:59 AM »
Global case decline has reversed. Especially in Europe where the more contagious #B117 UK variant is driving faster spread.


Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11101 on: February 26, 2021, 10:32:48 AM »
Another study from Israel, by the same organization (CHS), not peer reviewed yet.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-research-british-variant-increases-risk-of-serious-covid-by-70-percent-660226

Quote
The study compared a group of about 60,000 people infected with coronavirus between October 1 and December 19, 2020 – before the start of the vaccination campaign and before Israel identified its first cases of the variant – to a group of 50,000 unvaccinated people who contracted coronavirus between January 17 and February 7. During this later period, the Health Ministry estimated that the (UK) variant was the cause of 80% of new infections.

In the first period, 1% of people aged 30-50, 3.7% between 50-59 and 14.5% of those 60 and deteriorated within a 14-day period and experienced a serious case of the disease. In contrast, during the later period, 1.3% people ages 30-50, 5.5% between 50 and 60 and 19% of those 60 and older became serious patients within 14 days.
Looks similar to UK findings. Its more transmissible because the virus builds up to higher levels and takes longer to clear. That also makes it nastier, with higher proportions of serious cases and deaths. Its also distorting the UK infection survey data, because people stay positive for longer and that's changed the relationship between incidence and prevalence.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11102 on: February 26, 2021, 01:08:10 PM »
Worldometer shows no deaths for 17th Feb .. any ideas why ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11103 on: February 26, 2021, 01:39:31 PM »
Not a small site, but "No photographs or videos permitted"!

P.S. However it seems someone was allowed to take this picture of the other similar facility near Truro:



https://www.inyourarea.co.uk/news/volunteers-wanted-for-covid-19-mass-vaccination-sites-in-cornwall/
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11104 on: February 26, 2021, 06:01:25 PM »
Seafaring Nightmare: Aerosol Transmission Drove SARS-CoV-2's Spread Aboard Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-seafaring-nightmare-aerosol-transmission-drove.html

New modeling research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, illustrates not only how SARS-CoV-2 likely spread among passengers and crew, but how the Diamond Princess may serve as an object lesson for "floating incubators" and other built environments and airborne viruses.

Environmental health investigators at Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health and their collaborators have demonstrated that airborne transmission accounted for more than 50 percent of the disease spread aboard the cruise ship. Inhalation of virus-laden aerosols by passengers and crew occurred during close contact and at longer range, the scientists found.

Writing in the PNAS, Drs. Parham Azimi, Joseph G. Allen and colleagues underscore that it wasn't aerosols alone that fueled a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak that affected hundreds aboard the luxury liner. Other routes of transmission contributed to the contagion, including fomite transmission, the spread of infection through contact with contaminated objects.

... To evaluate the importance of multiple transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2 aboard the cruise ship, the team developed a modeling framework that utilized reams of detailed information from the Diamond Princess outbreak. The Harvard environmental health scientists modeled 21,600 scenarios "to generate a matrix of solutions across a full range of assumptions for eight unknown or uncertain epidemic and mechanistic transmission factors," they wrote in PNAS.

Aerosols smaller than approximately 10 micrometers, which were likely involved in all three modes of transmission—short- long-range and fomite transmission—likely contributed to more than half of the overall disease spread aboard the ship. Both large droplets and small aerosols contributed equally to transmission before passengers were quarantined, while small aerosols dominated transmission afterward.



... The new research by the Harvard team adds new context to a CDC investigation that was conducted aboard the Diamond Princess a few weeks after it docked and passengers had disembarked. CDC scientists clad in hazmat suits boarded the star-crossed vessel and took biological samples as part of their outbreak assessment. There was extensive evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA throughout passenger cabins, in hallways and other areas of the massive cruise liner. The inescapable presence of coronavirus RNA suggested explosive spread throughout the ship.

... Yet as detailed as their modeling study is—and it is possibly the most extensive and exhaustive of the Diamond Princess outbreak to date—there are still important questions that have yet to be answered. For one, how long do viral particles remain viable aerially?

"That is one of the biological factors that is very uncertain," Azimi said. "In one of the most widely cited articles about the viability of SARS-CoV-2 [by virologist Neeltje van Doremalen of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] it is estimated that the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 in the air is approximately one hour. This means that it would take about one hour for half of the infectious viruses to lose their viability. After two hours, 75 percent of viruses would lose their viability in indoor air, and so on."

The modeling research by the Harvard-led team emphasizes that fomite transmission apparently played a role on the ship, albeit much smaller than aerosol spread. However, that finding suggests fomite transmission should not be shunted aside as possible risk factor.

"Although the contribution of fomite transmission is low it is still plausible, Azimi said. "It is important to notice that when we use our best estimates of model inputs, calculated from our PNAS paper, in other environments, such as school classrooms, the contribution of fomite transmission is about 5 percent. This contribution is low but it is not zero. Therefore, we do not recommend that people stop washing their hands."





Parham Azimi et al. Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission, [/I]Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences[/I] (2021)
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2015482118
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zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11105 on: February 27, 2021, 08:49:26 AM »
A followup on my post from last week on the situation in Europe, when there was a mixed picture where cases still declined in some countries but stalled or even increased in others. Now cases are increasing almost everywhere, the exeptions being mostly countries that were hit the hardest in the last weeks.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11106 on: February 27, 2021, 09:32:42 AM »
Possibly weather related? The UK had a blip of a week at -10% and now looks to be going back to its post lockdown rate of -25% which correlates pretty well with the "Beast from the East 2" spell of weather. People switching priorities from ventilation to heating leads to more COVID.


Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11107 on: February 27, 2021, 09:49:17 AM »
I hope you are right.

Me too. But let me remind you that I voted for less than 10,000 deaths in the poll above. The sabotage surprised me.

Quote
But you neglect Africa.
It isn't being contained there at all. No tracking, no tracing, no real attempts to contain it (barring efforts in a few countries). Africa is essentially invisible to everyone other than the health care workers, mortuaries, funeral homes and gravediggers.

India does appear much better.

South America isn't containing it or fighting it half as hard as they should.

The US is only just now doing something about it.

I think that in the next few months vaccine will become very abundant. This will impart herd immunity in many places with high vaccination rates. It will be in the best interests of everyone to help countries without good health infrastructure.

 By herd immunity I mean that if an infected person enters the population the chances are low ( not 0) that it finds a host. When a low probability event happens, a host is found likely unvaccinated, that host will also have a low probability of finding another host.


Quote
Somewhere in there is going to be a reserve of Covid until the entire lot is vaccinated and with a coordinated effort to reduce the spread.

Remember, the entire lot does not need to be vaccinated, just a large enough amount to make infection chains highly unlikely events. That can be achieved with as little as 20% of the population if the right people are targeted.

I think Covid 19 will become a rare disease of the unvaccinated, and almost always travel-related.

Quote
It is possible, I suppose, but can you honestly see a global, coordinated effort to remove Covid for good?

I do. Not only that, I expect governments to make sure this will not happen again. Pandemics are natural. We will alter nature to suit our needs as it is our nature to do.

Quote
And even then, Covid will have varients that skip the vaccine so we play the catch up game as with the flu season.

If that happens, we can have vaccine for the new variant in extremely large quantities, extremely quick ( months?).

This is not like the flu at all or the common cold complex. It could become a common disease, but before it gets there it will have to thoroughly mix and mutate into longer-lasting forms like for example:

Looks similar to UK findings. Its more transmissible because the virus builds up to higher levels and takes longer to clear. That also makes it nastier, with higher proportions of serious cases and deaths. Its also distorting the UK infection survey data, because people stay positive for longer and that's changed the relationship between incidence and prevalence.

The variant that Richard describes shows a mutation that favors permanence. Hopefully, the vaccine will take care of it. But this is exactly the kind of thing that can complicate matters.


Quote
I will stick with my version of the Covid future for now. If there is anything new that looks like a game changer I will change my opinion, but right now, Covid is here to stay, it will be annoying but, hopefully, we wont have a repeat of last year.... although since the contagiousness increases it isn't off the cards that a repeat is possible.
Unless Govts finally start to take it seriously.

You do that, better to be safe than sorry. I know I'm getting vaccinated even if herd immunity arrives before my turn at vaccine.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11108 on: February 27, 2021, 11:14:09 AM »
Quote
Remember, the entire lot does not need to be vaccinated, just a large enough amount to make infection chains highly unlikely events. That can be achieved with as little as 20% of the population if the right people are targeted.
Nothing I've seen so far supports this claim. The virus is highly contagious, 20% immmunity will do nothing to stop it unless you refer to a widespread population of isolated farms or something similar.

zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11109 on: February 27, 2021, 11:26:51 AM »
Possibly weather related? The UK had a blip of a week at -10% and now looks to be going back to its post lockdown rate of -25% which correlates pretty well with the "Beast from the East 2" spell of weather. (...)

I also suspect that this plays a role. The delayed effect would match the timeline. However, the rising numbers also correlates with the spread of the new variant. I guess we'll have 1-2 more rough months ahead.

Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11110 on: February 27, 2021, 12:36:06 PM »
Quote
Given limited vaccine, who should you vaccinate?

An intriguing, albeit UK centric, presentation from Julia Gog, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Cambridge University:

https://sms.cam.ac.uk/media/3436478

Quote
There will be many people who will be worried.... that it is arrogant to impose any kind of plan on a virus.

Boris Johnson - February 22nd 2021

Quote
It's a risky, risky time!

Julia Gog - February 23rd 2021
« Last Edit: February 27, 2021, 01:03:14 PM by Jim Hunt »
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dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11111 on: February 27, 2021, 01:38:17 PM »
Very interesting, long article about the wildly disparate mortality patterns of COVID-19 across the world:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/01/why-does-the-pandemic-seem-to-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others

The article is by Siddhartha Mukherjee, a physician who wrote the Pulitzer winning book The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer

He looks around the globe and considers all the possible reasons for the lower than expected mortality in many places (Africa, India, other countries in South Asia). The article concludes that no one explanation is satisfactory and likely includes a shifting mix of population age structure, living arrangements, underreporting, luck, and others.  Well worth the read.

Here's one excerpt discussing the role of underreporting in India's low death total:

They found that the total number of “all cause” deaths reported between May and August almost doubled in India compared with the same period in each of the past five years.

“Is that because the number of covid deaths in the country has been vastly underestimated?” I asked.

“It’s impossible to have a decisive answer,” Shah told me. “But the pattern of the excess deaths doesn’t really shout out covid as the cause. It just doesn’t.” When his researchers analyzed the data by age, location, and gender, they found that excess deaths tended to be observed in younger cohorts, and in rural rather than in urban settings; nor was there evidence of the usual coronavirus skew toward greater lethality in men. “The telltale signatures of covid just aren’t there,” he said. He won’t venture any hypotheses about the cause of the excess deaths. But among the possible candidates are indirect consequences of the pandemic: wage loss, displacement, malnourishment, forced migration, and disruptions in health care—the skipped clinic visit for malaria, diabetes, TB, or hypertension. According to World Health Organization analyses, disruptions in medical care and prevention programs related to malaria, TB, and H.I.V. will have cost many more lives in sub-Saharan Africa in the past year than the coronavirus. In poorer regions, especially, infection isn’t the only way that the pandemic can cost lives.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11112 on: February 27, 2021, 02:55:36 PM »
Quote
Given limited vaccine, who should you vaccinate?

An intriguing, albeit UK centric, presentation from Julia Gog, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Cambridge University:

https://sms.cam.ac.uk/media/3436478

The quote I would take from that is

Quote
Vaccinating the vulnerable and not the mixers is the most risky for vaccine escape.

Just what the UK (and most places?) is doing. Video does hint that perhaps a short period of excuse when using lockdown to control infection may well be in order.

Of course aim could be different e.g. to minimise deaths and hospitalisations rather than minimising risk of vaccine escape. Or maybe when hospitals under pressure then deaths and hospitalisations are the priority but once that is relieved then priority should change to thinking longer term and minimising risk of vaccine escape.

I am curious what others think:

Should we minimise risk of vaccine escape? Or

Is it more appropriate to take a more fatalistic vaccine escape either will or won't happen depending more on genetics than on risk from number of vaccinated infected people? Or

Something else?

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11113 on: February 27, 2021, 03:29:48 PM »
In the Netherlands we also do vulnerable groups first. The prime concern is bringing down the amount of deaths and IC cases. Of course this also happens in a situation where we keep having the evening clock, closures, social distancing and very limited visiting.

Over time AZ should start catching up with vaccine deliveries and more should come available.

Not watched the video so i don´t know if it is more likely that vaccine escape happens mainly in the vulnerable with a compromised immune system but we we have also immunized all HCW that work with them that should add an extra ring of protection.

Now if they mean that vaccine escape happens as strains mutate going around in the public then the problem is simply that there are not enough vaccines to immunize all of them at this point in time.

Also you could tailor one countries policy to minimalize vaccine escape but it might just happen in one of those countries were they have hardly any access to vaccines for now.

So i think this is the best way to do it.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11114 on: February 27, 2021, 03:41:51 PM »
It is possible, I suppose, but can you honestly see a global, coordinated effort to remove Covid for good?

I do. Not only that, I expect governments to make sure this will not happen again. Pandemics are natural. We will alter nature to suit our needs as it is our nature to do.


It is a brilliant display of myopic hubris when humans set themselves apart from nature when we are actually just one small and, it could be argued, inconsequential component of life on the planet.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/factors-allow-viruses-infect-humans-coronavirus#:~:text=More%20than%20a%20quadrillion%20quadrillion,find%20the%20ones%20that%20are%3F&text=An%20estimated%2010%20nonillion%20(10,universe%20100%20million%20times%20over.

They've got us outnumbered and the exquisite simplicity that governs their raison d'etre will always prevail.

We need to recognize our proper place and role in nature and learn to respect the proper place and roles of other forms of life that have existed for billions of years on the planet. Gaia is more complex and beautiful and far beyond our puny brains to understand. The idea that we can impose our will on nature will be our undoing.

« Last Edit: February 27, 2021, 03:54:33 PM by Shared Humanity »

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11115 on: February 27, 2021, 04:28:49 PM »

Not watched the video so i don´t know if it is more likely that vaccine escape happens mainly in the vulnerable with a compromised immune system but we we have also immunized all HCW that work with them that should add an extra ring of protection.


Video said little really and used a very simple model. Noted lots of other factors but basically concentrated on number of vaccinated that have the virus. If not vaccinated there seems little reason to expect selection of vaccine escape variants.

Perhaps more likely to happen where there is compromised immune system allowing more time for vaccine escape variant to emerge but maybe the compromised immune system also helps the normal variants to continue to outcompete the new variants so I have no idea really.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11116 on: February 27, 2021, 05:41:15 PM »
This is a stunningly weak virus.

(figures are widely available)
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11117 on: February 27, 2021, 05:48:40 PM »
That's a stunningly meaningless graph
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11118 on: February 27, 2021, 06:48:03 PM »
Perhaps you need to think about it more, and come up with an intelligent response.
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11119 on: February 27, 2021, 10:48:31 PM »
So a virus that kills >1% of the over 60 cohort ,as it actually did in a certain segment of the Israeli population, and even that only achieved thanks to very good healthcare that prevented more deaths, is weak? What is the meaning of that?

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11120 on: February 27, 2021, 11:12:00 PM »
Thomas, If you don’t hit the link you can’t read the numbers on your graphs/post.
 I had a job as a commercial sea urchin diver and the chance of death in any year was about 1 in 300 and other than astronaut you don’t find those odds in other occupations. No big deal but it gives me some perspective on your one million deaths out of 300 million population. Your chart.
 As a commercial diver you can also get the bends, get an embolism, lose fingers, or be maimed in numerous ways but just like your chart, we’ll just ignor those risks. 
 If everyone got Covid in the US we would have about five times more deaths so 2.5 million deaths without vaccines but maybe we could try to minimize that with a chart also. I mean it’s only a little more dangerous than being an astronaut or a sea urchin diver.
 But after getting close to accidental death a few times you kinda get more risk averse so maybe my opinion is jaded by personal close calls. Trying to minimize the risks of death by using charts just seems way to impersonal to me . One in three hundred is bad odds for dying.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11121 on: February 27, 2021, 11:19:54 PM »
Yes, it's VERY weak.
Every developed country has added about 15 to 25% to its over 65 year-old population, since the year 2000, and 90% of those people did not lead healthy lifestyles. The rest had unhealthy lifestyles imposed on them by a vampire-capitalist society. Pollution added to the mix, smoking & other unhealthy habits. Millions of people have been kept alive by medical advances. who would otherwise be dead, but are not necessarily any more healthy for it.

If a person smoked their whole life, severely damaging their lungs & immune system, then the last straw, covid, kills them, did covid kill them or smoking. If a person is exposed to pollution, toxins, or heavy metals for decades, damaging their health and immune system, did covid kill them or pollution. If a person was battling cancer for years, chemo, everything, did covid kill them or cancer?
The 1% is not accurate, and is pretty small for an elderly population. Lockdowns make people even weaker, and damage their health and therefore their immune system.

The large numbers come from a MUCH larger cohort of vulnerable than even just 20 years ago. Every country is showing a tiny death-rate per-capita population, no matter what the country or policies. Even in just that last 3 or 4 years, every developing country has added masses of new people to the over 65 year-old population. That will continue to rise more.

As has pollution in most places.

There are 27 million people over the age of 80 in Europe who will not die of covid-19.
There are >35 million people over the age of 70 in USA who will not die of covid-19.
The fact that it is mostly just the very elderly and very sick who are dying, shows it is a very weak virus.

You must have seen, year after year, decade after decade, headlines reading "Ageing population could collapse health-systems". The tiny number of deaths per capita population is amazing.
It is a stunningly weak virus.
Wait until an actual slightly bad virus comes along, in a world population of almost 8 billion people, whose health & immune-systems are severely weakened by pollution, toxins in food, water, air, and by poor health habits, and diminishing resources & cutbacks to health systems.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11122 on: February 27, 2021, 11:29:46 PM »
Perhaps you were hoping for something more like the 2015 saiga antelope die off, or maybe the 1988 North Sea harbor seal dieoff, or the 2019 California sea star wasting disease, or white-nose syndrome in bats.

Sorry to disappoint.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11123 on: February 27, 2021, 11:41:42 PM »
Thomas, If you don’t hit the link you can’t read the numbers on your graphs/post.
 I had a job as a commercial sea urchin diver and the chance of death in any year was about 1 in 300 and other than astronaut you don’t find those odds in other occupations. No big deal but it gives me some perspective on your one million deaths out of 300 million population. Your chart.
 As a commercial diver you can also get the bends, get an embolism, lose fingers, or be maimed in numerous ways but just like your chart, we’ll just ignor those risks. 
 If everyone got Covid in the US we would have about five times more deaths so 2.5 million deaths without vaccines but maybe we could try to minimize that with a chart also. I mean it’s only a little more dangerous than being an astronaut or a sea urchin diver.
 But after getting close to accidental death a few times you kinda get more risk averse so maybe my opinion is jaded by personal close calls. Trying to minimize the risks of death by using charts just seems way to impersonal to me . One in three hundred is bad odds for dying.


There are not a million covid deaths in USA. There are 1/2 a million. The graph explains that.
In a country of close to 50 million over-65, and a country known for bad health and pollution.
There are almost 3 million deaths in USA every year. And counting people who battled cancer for months, years, near end of life, and then died of this respiratory disease, and calling it a "covid" death, at the end, is not a good description of what happened to them. Nor someone who smoked their whole life, or was badly obese for decades, or subjected to agricultural, air, factory, pollution, toxins in food, water, junk food, their whole life, not enough time for proper exercise due to working 3 jobs just to stay out of the ghetto... calling the straw that broke them, "covid-19", is not a good description of what killed them. It's a lie.

You were not over 65 as a diver. People die when they get old. It's natural, but MUCH worse because of pollution, toxins, and unhealthy lifestyles. There are about 40 to 50 million people over 65 in USA, about 18 to 19 million more than just 20 years ago.
This was all predicted for years, decades, only the death-rates are MUCH smaller than those dire predictions predicted. Wait until an actual slightly-bad virus takes hold in a very large elderly population, and a very large health-vulnerable population. You will forget covid even existed when that happens. It's coming, as predicted by scientists for years, decades.

And studies show that most people already have immunity to covid-19 due to 10s of 1000s of years of humans being exposed to similar viruses, so your proposal that everyone might get covid-19 is not tenable. Not even close.

Here's the actual numbers so far.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11124 on: February 28, 2021, 12:07:44 AM »
Your graph shows one in three hundred and your intention is to minimize those odds. Yes odds of death in the US for the first year of the pandemic were really one in six hundred but if you wish to minimize 1 in 300 then minimizing 1 in 600 is so much easier.
 Your chart is stunningly meaningless . Why show a chart with double the odds of dying unless it is simply a foil to imply one in six hundred is minuscule in comparison ?
 On this forum we prefer you to show us these studies about natural immunity. Probably more tilted crap but let’s see them. Source?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11125 on: February 28, 2021, 12:27:42 AM »
It is one in 656 people in USA, and a large % of those died of other causes, as I've already explained. in a VERY unhealthy population, all predicted for years, decades. Nothing unexpected. In fact, far LESS than expected for years of expert predictions.

Here is a world expert in 2016, explaining for you how cancer deaths are not properly counted, but are counted as something else. Same - or worse in a crisis - happened with covid. Listen to the whole podcast for your education, and the article: https://www.bmj.com/content/355/bmj.i5792/rapid-responses

If I showed you the studies on mass pre-existing immunity to covid-19, your tone suggests that you would deny that science anyway. If you don't know about it, you have to ask yourself "why" you don't know about it.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2021, 12:52:58 AM by Thomas Barlow »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11126 on: February 28, 2021, 12:34:09 AM »
Not watched the video so i don´t know if it is more likely that vaccine escape happens mainly in the vulnerable...

There's also a thread on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/bealelab/status/1364880261037621249

TL;DR - See this slide:



Discussed from ~ 15 minutes in the video. A "simple model" and a suggestion for further work rather than the be all and end all. Caveats aside:

Quote
To maximise your chances of generating a vaccine escape just vaccinate the vulnerable...

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11127 on: February 28, 2021, 12:57:20 AM »
We had a problem at one of our local prisons.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/23/coronavirus-lompoc-federal-prison-failed-isolate-covid-19-inmates/5493035002/
“Lompoc officials later began testing all prisoners at one facility in the compound, where 77% of inmates tested positive.”
 Maybe not the best example but how could there be natural immunity and get 77% positive for a population that can’t say no to testing or yes to isolation.
 So far 5 have died.



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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11128 on: February 28, 2021, 01:21:38 AM »
The testing is primitive science, and badly used :
"particularly given the misuse of serology tests for diagnosis, the potential for false positive results when a single test is used in populations with a low rate of infection, and the perception of immunity. Our approach to testing needs to be consistently updated and guided by sound science."
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2033687

And Lompoc is a very unhealthy part of the country. Those prisoners exposed to toxins in food, water, air, and deadly toxins from the drying Salton Sea due to climate-change,  floating into the lungs of everyone in that part of California, along with wildfire-smoke every time the wildfires erupt every year, and masses of pesticide fine spray and dust in the air. Weak immune systems like that would lead to far more than 4 deaths in the prison over a year, if this was a slightly-bad virus. But it is very weak.
'Dust from a dying California lake' - https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/11/the-airborne-toxic-lake-event/414888/

« Last Edit: February 28, 2021, 01:27:49 AM by Thomas Barlow »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11129 on: February 28, 2021, 01:23:51 AM »
Gish gallop
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11130 on: February 28, 2021, 02:42:27 AM »
It is one in 656 people in USA, and a large % of those died of other causes, as I've already explained. in a VERY unhealthy population, all predicted for years, decades. Nothing unexpected. In fact, far LESS than expected for years of expert predictions.

Here is a world expert in 2016, explaining for you how cancer deaths are not properly counted, but are counted as something else. Same - or worse in a crisis - happened with covid. Listen to the whole podcast for your education, and the article: https://www.bmj.com/content/355/bmj.i5792/rapid-responses

If I showed you the studies on mass pre-existing immunity to covid-19, your tone suggests that you would deny that science anyway. If you don't know about it, you have to ask yourself "why" you don't know about it.

Why are you underplaying Covid?

You are looking for "clever" ways to explain away deaths in every which way possible.

But in the end, the question you need to answer if you want to put Covid into the hype box is this.... how do you explain the increased excess deaths last year if it wasn't Covid?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11131 on: February 28, 2021, 05:35:09 AM »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11132 on: February 28, 2021, 08:05:00 AM »
@Jim Hunt:

I liked the video and as simple as the model is, I am convinced that it is right: to protect the vulnerable you need to vaccinate the "mixers" first, those who are in contact with many people. Problem is: it is not so easy to say who the mixers are, other than some obvious professions like policemen, teachers, shop assistants. But yeah, they should get priority

@ThomasBarlow:

Total populationwide IFR is cca 1% for COVID, at least 10x that of the flu. For above 60s it is at least 3% and above 70s 5-10%. That is not "stunningly low".
Other than that, please stop running amok on the freezing thread.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11133 on: February 28, 2021, 08:28:17 AM »
Not watched the video so i don´t know if it is more likely that vaccine escape happens mainly in the vulnerable...

There's also a thread on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/bealelab/status/1364880261037621249

TL;DR - See this slide:



Discussed from ~ 15 minutes in the video. A "simple model" and a suggestion for further work rather than the be all and end all. Caveats aside:

Quote
To maximise your chances of generating a vaccine escape just vaccinate the vulnerable...

The video is worth watching. It's not the first time that I hear about vaccine escape pressure, but never saw it so clearly explained.

I already read an article saying that vaccination should only be done with a low number of cases. The problem is that even if a country is able to limit vaccine pressure inside its boundaries, mutations can occur anywhere else, in countries where less than 50% are vaccinated.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11134 on: February 28, 2021, 10:25:16 AM »

Quote
To maximise your chances of generating a vaccine escape just vaccinate the vulnerable...

I do wonder if this is rather more relevant to flu policy, which leaves a large fraction of the population unjabbed, rather than how to triage COVID jabs when there is only the ability to jab 1% of the population per day but the intent is to jab the lot asap.

The UK is now at about the same level of immunity via vaccine as via infection. Immunity via infection has cost roughly 125k deaths, so thats the order of lives saved by lockdown measures so far. It could have been quite a bit better, slight adjustments to the timing and it would have been 25k not 125k for virtually the same costs, but there is now a major payback starting to roll in for the cost of suppressing infection.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11135 on: February 28, 2021, 10:58:10 AM »
Nothing I've seen so far supports this claim. The virus is highly contagious, 20% immmunity will do nothing to stop it unless you refer to a widespread population of isolated farms or something similar.

This is where I saw the calculation:

Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v3

Quote
As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads, the susceptible subpopulation declines causing the rate at which new infections occur to slow down. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are more susceptible or more exposed tend to be infected and removed from the susceptible subpopulation earlier. This selective depletion of susceptibles intensifies the deceleration in incidence ...

 ...Our inferences result in herd immunity thresholds around 10-20%, considerably lower than the minimum coverage needed to interrupt transmission by random vaccination, which for R0 higher than 2.5 is estimated above 60%. We emphasize that the classical formula, 1 − 1/R0, remains applicable to describe herd immunity thresholds for random vaccination, but not for immunity induced by infection which is naturally selective.


My emphasis of their emphasis.

We are not randomly selecting people and vaccinating them. We are selecting people based on maximum vaccine impact. Granted, selecting people for maximum impact is a fuzzy task, but it is selection nonetheless. We don't randomly vaccinate. We select who receives the vaccine.

Thus, by selecting for maximum effectiveness we can significantly lower the actual threshold for herd immunity.

Will it be as low as 10% to 20%? Doubtful, but possible under the right conditions. Selecting for maximum effectiveness is easier said than done. But there are low-hanging fruits. It will be lower than 60%.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11136 on: February 28, 2021, 11:56:00 AM »
Perhaps you were hoping for something more like the 2015 saiga antelope die off, or maybe the 1988 North Sea harbor seal dieoff, or the 2019 California sea star wasting disease, or white-nose syndrome in bats.

Sorry to disappoint.
Just be patient. There are hundreds of thousands of viruses mixing around in the biosphere...it is just a matter of time till the wrong pair mix and then jump to humans.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11137 on: February 28, 2021, 02:38:52 PM »
EXCESS deaths soaring in many countries faster than official #COVID19 deaths. Russia had 360,000 excess deaths in 2020, Covid reported deaths 80,000. No Data for China and India is available!


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11139 on: February 28, 2021, 03:26:26 PM »

We are not randomly selecting people and vaccinating them. We are selecting people based on maximum vaccine impact. Granted, selecting people for maximum impact is a fuzzy task, but it is selection nonetheless. We don't randomly vaccinate. We select who receives the vaccine.

Thus, by selecting for maximum effectiveness we can significantly lower the actual threshold for herd immunity.


Maximum effectiveness for minimising R is to select people who mix a lot with other people. This is predominantly young people particularly school ages, teachers and other front line staff who tend to be young.

We are selecting older ages to vaccinate to minimise deaths and hospitalisations. Not saying that is the wrong thing to do but it is exactly the wrong thing to do to minimise the number that we have to vaccinate to reach herd immunity. With this strategy we need a higher number vaccinated than suggested by 1-1/R0.

Original R0 was around 3 in March 2020 and new variant possibly 70% more infectious so R0 with no non pharma interventions(NPIs) or risk reducing behaviour could be as high as 5. Making 1-1/R0 = 80% so we possibly need to vaccinate more than that or retain some risk reducing measures and behaviour.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11140 on: February 28, 2021, 03:45:50 PM »
EXCESS deaths soaring in many countries faster than official #COVID19 deaths. Russia had 360,000 excess deaths in 2020, Covid reported deaths 80,000. No Data for China and India is available!

Pay no attention to those excess death charts. Every nation on the planet has accurately recorded every COVID death. Those others are for spurious and anomalous reasons. Merely a coincidence.  ;)

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11141 on: February 28, 2021, 04:15:37 PM »
Regarding COVID deaths and excess deaths...

South Africa has the highest COVID death total in Africa, according to official numbers. It is also only one of the eight African countries out of more than 50 to have a compulsory system to register deaths. Add to this the fact that most countries in Africa have too few tests to verify cause of death even when the death is recorded.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55674139

Looking at the map below, I challenge anyone here to make a convincing argument that we should have any confidence at all in the estimates of COVID deaths occurring in Africa.

This situation is being repeated across the planet in many, if not most, third world nations with inadequate health industries. The result is the true death toll is grotesquely undercounted.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11142 on: February 28, 2021, 04:29:44 PM »
In western developed nations where the recording of deaths is compulsory and where the health systems are well developed, the official death toll for COVID is still an undercount but this undercount can be estimated by the excess death toll.

In nations like the U.S. (I live here) the undercount has 2 primary causes. Some deaths were recorded without having the means to verify if COVID was the cause. This occurred often at the beginning of the pandemic. The 2nd reason is when political officials undercount in order to hide their criminal incompetence. The governor of Florida fired the person who was responsible for recording COVID deaths, then refused to release death totals and finally had the person he had fired arrested when she created her own methods to record deaths and published the data daily.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2021, 04:37:07 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11143 on: February 28, 2021, 05:12:12 PM »
It is one in 656 people in USA, and a large % of those died of other causes, as I've already explained. in a VERY unhealthy population, all predicted for years, decades. Nothing unexpected. In fact, far LESS than expected for years of expert predictions.

Here is a world expert in 2016, explaining for you how cancer deaths are not properly counted, but are counted as something else. Same - or worse in a crisis - happened with covid. Listen to the whole podcast for your education, and the article: https://www.bmj.com/content/355/bmj.i5792/rapid-responses

If I showed you the studies on mass pre-existing immunity to covid-19, your tone suggests that you would deny that science anyway. If you don't know about it, you have to ask yourself "why" you don't know about it.

Why are you underplaying Covid?

You are looking for "clever" ways to explain away deaths in every which way possible.

But in the end, the question you need to answer if you want to put Covid into the hype box is this.... how do you explain the increased excess deaths last year if it wasn't Covid?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html

I've already explained the excess deaths, many times.
Pollution, very large, unhealthy elderly population, very large population of people kept alive by medical advances than ever before, but not necessarily healthier. Obesity, smoking, unhealthy lifestyles, science-denial by society and leaders, causing poor health.
Even since 2017-18, which was a bad flu-death year, USA has added at least 1.5 million to 2 million more people to the over-65 year-old population, and millions more on some kind of life-support care. Since 2015, when the last bad flu hit UK, UK has added about 500,000 to 800,000 more people to the over-65 year-old population, and millions more on some kind of life-support care.

That more than accounts for the excess deaths, and literally proves that this is a very weak virus.

This was all predicted. You know that. You heard it was coming for years, decades.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2021, 05:51:38 PM by Thomas Barlow »
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11144 on: February 28, 2021, 05:14:01 PM »

@ThomasBarlow:

Total populationwide IFR is cca 1% for COVID, at least 10x that of the flu. For above 60s it is at least 3% and above 70s 5-10%. That is not "stunningly low".
Other than that, please stop running amok on the freezing thread.

It is stunningly low.
See my answer to Rodius above.

And your comment about the other thread is just nonsense.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2021, 05:21:04 PM by Thomas Barlow »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11145 on: February 28, 2021, 05:19:13 PM »
This is a stunningly weak virus.

And UK and New Zealand are very close countries because at 11400 miles apart this is a tiny fraction of the distance to the nearest galaxy (236,000,000,000,000,000 km).

You are doing this - comparing to a much larger number just to say it is weak. To apply description weak to this virus, you have to compare to other viruses. Have other recent viruses caused such pressure on health care that government feel need to invoke shutdown? No so it isn't a "weak virus" let alone a "stunningly weak virus".

This really is that simple but I am not surprised by people trying to say it is weak. With all the businesses struggling, it isn't a surprise at all. Are you trying to promote this or have you just fallen for the rhetoric?

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11146 on: February 28, 2021, 05:30:28 PM »
This is a stunningly weak virus.

And UK and New Zealand are very close countries because at 11400 miles apart this is a tiny fraction of the distance to the nearest galaxy (236,000,000,000,000,000 km).

You are doing this - comparing to a much larger number just to say it is weak. To apply description weak to this virus, you have to compare to other viruses. Have other recent viruses caused such pressure on health care that government feel need to invoke shutdown? No so it isn't a "weak virus" let alone a "stunningly weak virus".

This really is that simple but I am not surprised by people trying to say it is weak. With all the businesses struggling, it isn't a surprise at all. Are you trying to promote this or have you just fallen for the rhetoric?

You seem to be claiming that all the science on climate-change, pollution, by experts, journals, scientists for years, decades, is all wrong, when they said pollution, unhealthy lives, climate-change, and ageing demographics, would lead to large numbers of deaths and respiratory deaths. You seem to have forgotton all that science and headlines that predicted it. Much of that likely posted in this forum on other threads. Some of them probably posted, or agreed with and championed by you in comments. You have all forgotton your own warnings.

Everyone knew this was coming.
See my answer to Rodius above.

It is stunningly weak. Wait until an actual slightly-bad virus comes along in such a population, then you'll forget the VERY weak covid-19 even existed.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11147 on: February 28, 2021, 05:41:19 PM »
Why are you underplaying Covid?
Why are you overplaying Covid?

The questions exist side by side.

Is there a way to argue away the influences of pollution, demographics and horrid fabric food on deaths. Seems hard to me.

So then the next question arises: why does this argument annoy people so much? It is the virus that evil strange thing that is doing us in, it can not possibly be us?

We could learn from Covid that this sort of fall out of our current hyper capitalism is expected but that lesson is unwelcome i guess.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11148 on: February 28, 2021, 05:48:03 PM »
Why are you underplaying Covid?
Why are you overplaying Covid?

The questions exist side by side.

Is there a way to argue away the influences of pollution, demographics and horrid fabric food on deaths. Seems hard to me.

So then the next question arises: why does this argument annoy people so much? It is the virus that evil strange thing that is doing us in, it can not possibly be us?

We could learn from Covid that this sort of fall out of our current hyper capitalism is expected but that lesson is unwelcome i guess.

Yes.
Spot on.
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crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11149 on: February 28, 2021, 06:13:08 PM »
This is a stunningly weak virus.

And UK and New Zealand are very close countries because at 11400 miles apart this is a tiny fraction of the distance to the nearest galaxy (236,000,000,000,000,000 km).

You are doing this - comparing to a much larger number just to say it is weak. To apply description weak to this virus, you have to compare to other viruses. Have other recent viruses caused such pressure on health care that government feel need to invoke shutdown? No so it isn't a "weak virus" let alone a "stunningly weak virus".

This really is that simple but I am not surprised by people trying to say it is weak. With all the businesses struggling, it isn't a surprise at all. Are you trying to promote this or have you just fallen for the rhetoric?

You seem to be claiming that all the science on climate-change, pollution, by experts, journals, scientists for years, decades, is all wrong, when they said pollution, unhealthy lives, climate-change, and ageing demographics, would lead to large numbers of deaths and respiratory deaths. You seem to have forgotton all that science and headlines that predicted it. Much of that likely posted in this forum on other threads. Some of them probably posted, or agreed with and championed by you in comments. You have all forgotton your own warnings.

Everyone knew this was coming.
See my answer to Rodius above.

It is stunningly weak. Wait until an actual slightly-bad virus comes along in such a population, then you'll forget the VERY weak covid-19 even existed.

Oh, so you are saying we need to prepare for much nastier viruses?
Most people saying covid is weak are arguing for economy to open up again.

Anyway in saying "pollution, unhealthy lives, climate-change, and ageing demographics, would lead to large numbers of deaths" you seem to be saying you are explaining away the excess deaths.

If you expect these causes to create lots of excess deaths when and how do you expect them to arrive? While an extreme weather event might cause excess deaths to start suddenly but pollution, unhealthy lives, aging demographics would be expected to cause slow and steady increases such that there are excess deaths every year as the norm over many years. You seem far from explaining what is happening now with the excess deaths being larger but matching patterns of levels of covid deaths and infections with suitable slight delay.

(FWIW I tend to think people on this forum are rather catastrophist minded.)