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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 586048 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11250 on: March 04, 2021, 11:11:00 PM »
New Evidence COVID-19 Antibodies, Vaccines Less Effective Against Variants
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-evidence-covid-antibodies-vaccines-effective.html

New research at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis indicates that three new, fast-spreading variants of the virus that cause COVID-19 can evade antibodies that work against the original form of the virus that sparked the pandemic. With few exceptions, whether such antibodies were produced in response to vaccination or natural infection, or were purified antibodies intended for use as drugs, the researchers found more antibody is needed to neutralize the new variants.

The findings, from laboratory-based experiments and published March 4 in Nature Medicine, suggest that COVID-19 drugs and vaccines developed thus far may become less effective as the new variants become dominant, as experts say they inevitably will. The researchers looked at variants from South Africa, the United Kingdom and Brazil.

"We're concerned that people whom we'd expect to have a protective level of antibodies because they have had COVID-19 or been vaccinated against it, might not be protected against the new variants," said senior author Michael S. Diamond, MD, Ph.D., the Herbert S. Gasser Professor of Medicine. "There's wide variation in how much antibody a person produces in response to vaccination or natural infection. Some people produce very high levels, and they would still likely be protected against the new, worrisome variants. But some people, especially older and immunocompromised people, may not make such high levels of antibodies. If the level of antibody needed for protection goes up tenfold, as our data indicate it does, they may not have enough. The concern is that the people who need protection the most are the ones least likely to have it."

... The researchers tested the variants against antibodies in the blood of people who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection or were vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine. They also tested antibodies in the blood of mice, hamsters and monkeys that had been vaccinated with an experimental COVID-19 vaccine, developed at Washington University School of Medicine, that can be given through the nose. The B.1.1.7 (U.K.) variant could be neutralized with similar levels of antibodies as were needed to neutralize the original virus. But the other two variants, B.1.135 (South Africa) and B.1.1.248, also known as P.1 (Brazil), required from 3.5 to 10 times as much antibody for neutralization.

Since each virus variant carried multiple mutations in the spike gene, the researchers created a panel of viruses with single mutations so they could parse out the effect of each mutation. Most of the variation in antibody effectiveness could be attributed to a single amino acid change in the spike protein. This change, called E484K, was found in the B.1.135 (South Africa) and B.1.1.248 (Brazil) variants, but not B.1.1.7 (U.K.). The B.1.135 variant is widespread in South Africa, which may explain why one of the vaccines tested in people was less effective in South Africa than in the U.S., where the variant is still rare, Diamond said. ...

Rita E. Chen et al, Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 variants to neutralization by monoclonal and serum-derived polyclonal antibodies, Nature Medicine (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01294-w
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11251 on: March 05, 2021, 01:23:34 AM »


What the world should be doing is what most of the world is currently doing -- continue public health measures to limit further spread of Covid and its varieants while vaccinating as many as possible as quickly as possible.

In six months, the "strength" or "weakness" of the virus will be utterly moot.  Much sooner in many nations, a bit later in some poor nations.  We just all need to stay alive and healthy until then,

Anybody heard from Terry lately?

But...but...but. I wanna go out for pizza and beer.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11252 on: March 05, 2021, 01:26:10 AM »
Leading causes of deaths in the US in 2017 and 2018 per 100k people.



As of March 1st the US has lost 155.6 people per 100k

Covic 19 is more dangerous than Cancer, but only with masking and shutdowns. With full open, we wouldn't be having this discussion as you would all know people that died of Covid.

That's the big picture.
 
Wanna talk UK? pffft

Pretty much says it all. If the U.S. had chosen to do nothing, we would have had well over 1 million dead, perhaps 2 million.

Thomas would still be posting bar charts showing how weak the disease is.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11253 on: March 05, 2021, 01:35:59 AM »
Mising receptor in the immune system is associated with severe courses of Covid-19

https://www.meduniwien.ac.at/web/ueber-uns/news/neews-im-februar-2021/fehlen-eines-rezeptors-im-immunsystem-ist-mit-schweren-verlaeufen-von-covid-19-assoziiert/



Original article in Springer Nature:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41436-020-01077-7.pdf

Thanks for these links. Nice to have persons contributing real content to further the discussion and our understanding.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11254 on: March 05, 2021, 01:40:30 AM »
Most of the variation in antibody effectiveness could be attributed to a single amino acid change in the spike protein. This change, called E484K, was found in the B.1.135 (South Africa) and B.1.1.248 (Brazil) variants, but not B.1.1.7 (U.K.). The B.1.135 variant is widespread in South Africa, which may explain why one of the vaccines tested in people was less effective in South Africa than in the U.S., where the variant is still rare, Diamond said. ...

Rita E. Chen et al, Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 variants to neutralization by monoclonal and serum-derived polyclonal antibodies, Nature Medicine (2021).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01294-w

I read about E484K a few weeks ago. One lab studying it had already nicknamed it EeeeK

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11255 on: March 05, 2021, 03:21:38 PM »

I read about E484K a few weeks ago. One lab studying it had already nicknamed it EeeeK

That pretty much sums up my reaction to the studies and trials in South Africa.
I'm not sure whether its peer review for Nature making them a few months out of date or US based researchers unable to access serum from SA, but studies they say they were unable to do on any vaccine but Pfizer in this paper have been done on Sinovax, Moderna, AZ and JJ as well as Pfizer on the SA variant in SA already.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11256 on: March 05, 2021, 06:50:59 PM »
Mathematical Model of SARS-CoV-2 UK Variant (B.1.1.7) Suggests 43–90% More Transmissible
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-mathematical-sars-cov-uk-variant-transmissible.html

A team of researchers led by a group at the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has found evidence suggesting that the U.K. variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus could be 43 to 90% more transmissible than the original virus. In their study, published in the journal Science, the group used models to study the transmissibility of various variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

... To learn more about the variant, the researchers sampled 150,000 virus sequences from all across the U.K. In so doing, they found evidence suggesting that the growth rate of the U.K. variant was higher than all 307 other variants they found. They next entered data regarding the virus into a mathematical model modified to show transmission rates of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants. The team then used the model to test certain assumptions that have been made about the variant, such as its ability to cause a higher viral load and how long it persists in infected people. The model showed the reproduction number for the variant to be 43 to 90% higher than for the original virus or other variants.

They found that in order to prevent large increases in infections, the U.K. will have to step up vaccination efforts. Without them, they predict the U.K. will see more hospitalizations and deaths in 2021 than were recorded in 2020

Nicholas G. Davies et al. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England, Science (2021)
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055

----------------------------------------

Ivermectin Doesn't Speed Recovery from Mild COVID-19, Study Shows
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/ivermectin-doesnt-speed-recovery-mild-covid-19-study-shows

Early administration of the antiparasitic drug ivermectin didn't significantly shorten time to clinical improvement in 400 adults mildly ill with COVID-19, a clinical trial today in JAMA finds.

Led by researchers from the Centro de Estudios en Infectologia Pediatrica in Cali, Colombia, the single-center, double-blind, randomized trial used random sampling of coronavirus-positive patients to identify inpatients and outpatients with mild COVID-19 within the first 7 days after symptom onset from Jul 15 to Nov 30, 2020.

Median time to symptom resolution was 10 days in the 200 patients randomly assigned to receive ivermectin daily for 5 days, compared with 12 days in 198 patients receiving a placebo (interquartile range for both, 9 to 13 days; hazard ratio, 1.07).

Twenty-one days after starting treatment, 82% in the ivermectin group and 79% receiving a placebo were symptom-free. Only 2% of patients in the ivermectin group and 3.5% in the placebo group experienced clinical deterioration of at least two points on an ordinal eight-point scale (absolute difference, -1.53). The odds ratio for clinical deterioration in those receiving ivermectin versus placebo was 0.56.

There were no significant differences between the two groups in the proportion of patients who needed more aggressive care (2% who received ivermectin vs 5% who received placebo; absolute difference, -3.05) or in the length of time that the escalated care was needed (median difference, 7 days).

Nor were there significant differences in the proportions of patients with fever (absolute difference between ivermectin and placebo, -2.61) or in the length of the fever (absolute difference, -0.5 days). Ivermectin did not reduce emergency department or telemedicine visits.

Seventy-seven percent of the ivermectin group and 81.3% of the placebo group had adverse events, with 7.5% of the former group and 2.5% of the latter group discontinuing treatment as a result. The most common side effect was headache (52% in the ivermectin group, 56% in the placebo group). Other symptoms included cough and impaired smell and taste.

Two patients in each group developed multiorgan failure, making it the most common serious adverse event, although none of the cases were considered treatment-related. One patient who received placebo died.

Median participant age was 37 years, 58% were women, 58.3% were outpatients, and 79% had no known underlying medical conditions.

"Cumulatively, the findings suggest that ivermectin does not significantly affect the course of early COVID-19, consistent with pharmacokinetic models showing that plasma total and unbound ivermectin levels do not reach the concentration resulting in 50% of viral inhibition even for a dose level 10-times higher than the approved dose," the authors concluded.

"The findings do not support the use of ivermectin for treatment of mild COVID-19, although larger trials may be needed to understand the effects of ivermectin on other clinically relevant outcomes."

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777389
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11257 on: March 05, 2021, 07:17:14 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

ITALY - the graphs suggest to me that Italy has lost control over this virus (until vaccination becomes nearly universal?)

click to enlarge image
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11258 on: March 05, 2021, 08:45:02 PM »
It would appear Italy has been hit by the UK variant in a widespread manner, at least looking at this chart.

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11259 on: March 05, 2021, 11:57:49 PM »
It would appear Italy has been hit by the UK variant in a widespread manner, at least looking at this chart.

Yes many EU countries getting UK variant and South Africa/Brazil variants. Italy B 1.1.7, 44% of cases.

https://covariants.org/variants/S.501Y.V1

Out of 2,155 people infected with the variant codenamed B117 in the institute's study, 128 were hospitalised, a rate 64% higher than people infected with other variants, the country's Serum Institute said.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news
« Last Edit: March 06, 2021, 12:04:46 AM by glennbuck »

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11260 on: March 06, 2021, 02:51:25 AM »
Spanish Flu 1918

In the United States, a quarter of the population caught the virus 25%, 675,000 died.

https://www.archives.gov/news/topics/flu-pandemic-1918

Covid-19, 29.5 million have had the virus around 9% of the population and 535,560 died.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA Second World war 416,800 deaths

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-war-two-casualties-by-country

« Last Edit: March 06, 2021, 03:00:11 AM by glennbuck »

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11261 on: March 06, 2021, 03:16:37 AM »
Spanish Flu 1918

In the United States, a quarter of the population caught the virus 25%, 675,000 died.

https://www.archives.gov/news/topics/flu-pandemic-1918

Covid-19, 29.5 million have had the virus around 9% of the population and 535,560 died.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA Second World war 416,800 deaths

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-war-two-casualties-by-country

I am assured by others here that this is a very weak virus.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11262 on: March 06, 2021, 07:28:19 AM »
RE: Italy/British mutant

The same seems to be happening in many parts of C.Europe (see charts about case numbers in Hungary).

Hungary (very belatedly) started a lockdown (no high school and university, no mass gatherings, 8 pm curfew) at the beginning of November, which is clearly seen on the chart . R fell below 1, to cca 0,9 then it started to creep up above one as the British version arrived here and spread and now that it is the dominant version here, R is between 1,3-1,5.

The British versions' major "skill" seems to be in its enhanced ability to infect younger people. Hungarian primary schools stayed open after the November lockdowns but that was not a problem until January. After January, especially during February more and more schoolchildren got infected and then infected their parents in turn. As schools became the major source of infection serious measures had to be done. So from Monday all schools and kindergartens are closed for a month, all government officials must use a home office, all services (barbers,etc) are suspended for at least two weeks and all non-essential shops will be closed.

My modelling tells me that this will reduce case numbers sharply and swiftly: I think infections will fall by 90% in 6 weeks. Also, there is a rush of vaccination here with Sputnik and Sinopharm (besides EU procured vaccines) so by the middle of April this will mostly be over as cca 20-25% will be vaccinated and 20-25% will have natural immunity.

/long-term problem: no more than 50% of the population wants to get vaccinated which means that after disappearing in April/May, COVID will be back with a vengeance next winter here.../

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11263 on: March 06, 2021, 01:25:09 PM »
The dutch general influenza surveillance turned up zero cases of influenza so far this winter.
Some flu like illnesses turned out to be corona, rhino and enterovirusses.

https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6120219/deze-winter-werd-nog-geen-enkel-griepgeval-vastgesteld.html

I was suggested somewhere upthread that the measures against Covid would influence this number and it seems rather succesful.
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11264 on: March 06, 2021, 01:42:33 PM »
Spanish Flu 1918

In the United States, a quarter of the population caught the virus 25%, 675,000 died.

https://www.archives.gov/news/topics/flu-pandemic-1918

Covid-19, 29.5 million have had the virus around 9% of the population and 535,560 died.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

USA Second World war 416,800 deaths

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/world-war-two-casualties-by-country

I am assured by others here that this is a very weak virus.

Still a long way to go to catch the devastation wreaked by the Spanish flu.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11265 on: March 06, 2021, 02:58:05 PM »
The dutch general influenza surveillance turned up zero cases of influenza so far this winter.
Some flu like illnesses turned out to be corona, rhino and enterovirusses.

https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6120219/deze-winter-werd-nog-geen-enkel-griepgeval-vastgesteld.html

I was suggested somewhere upthread that the measures against Covid would influence this number and it seems rather succesful.

This points to a change in behavior that is really needed in western nations. Wearing masks during flu/COVID/cold season needs to be as normal in the U.S. as it is in Japan or South Korea. Staying home when you're sick should be the rule.

It also suggests that policy changes are needed. The U.S. should have universal sick pay so that low wage workers who cannot afford to miss a paycheck do not feel it necessary to come to work when they are sick. Do you really want to be served by a sick fast food worker?

Of course, some may feel that a vigorous flu season is necessary to cull the herd.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11266 on: March 06, 2021, 03:56:55 PM »
UK had one child in intensive care with flu per week in Oct/Nov, but none since November. Just one adult total so far. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966665/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w9.pdf

This weeks ECDC summary https://flunewseurope.org/

Quote
Influenza activity remained at interseasonal levels.
 
Of 1 045 specimens tested for influenza viruses in week 08/2021, from patients presenting with ILI or ARI symptoms to sentinel primary healthcare sites, 3 were positive.
 
Influenza viruses were detected sporadically from non-sentinel sources (such as hospitals, schools, primary care facilities not involved in sentinel surveillance, or nursing homes and other institutions). Both influenza type A and type B viruses were detected.
 
Three hospitalized laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were reported in week 08/2021 (two SARI cases and one from wards outside of ICUs).
 
The influenza epidemic in the European Region has usually reached its peak by this point in the year but, despite widespread and regular testing for influenza, reported influenza activity still remains at a very low level, likely due to the impact of the various public health and social measures implemented to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2.


No sign of a rebound outbreak in flu in Aust/NZ but I have seen warnings from specialists there that another "winter" virus had rebound outbreaks this summer. Perhaps flu is seasonal enough that the rebound doesn't happen out of season, but 2021 is not the year to miss a flu vaccine. I suspect I've 3 more jabs to come this year: the AZ second shot, an "EeeK" booster, and the flu jab.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11267 on: March 06, 2021, 08:08:08 PM »
The dutch general influenza surveillance turned up zero cases of influenza so far this winter.
Some flu like illnesses turned out to be corona, rhino and enterovirusses.

It was obvious (at the latest) by September that there will be no flu season at all in the NH. The simple reason (I wrote about it upthread) : the flu's R0 is smaller than COVID's R0. If we keep Covid's R below or around 1, then the flu's R (influenced by the same factors as COVID) must stay even more below 1. It is simple maths. This was the theory. But we also knew by September that the theory is right: there was no flu season in the SH during June-Aug.

This does not mean that maskwearing will stop the next flu season, that is probably not enough in itself to reduce its R below 1. However, current flu vaccines are only 30-60% efficient. We can hope that new, mRNA based new flu vaccines with 90+% efficacy could eradicate it in a few years after this COVID craze is over.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11268 on: March 06, 2021, 11:00:36 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

ITALY - the graphs suggest to me that Italy has lost control over this virus (until vaccination becomes nearly universal?)

click to enlarge image

Not even a little bit out of control.
1 death per day per 200,000 population right now, and the lag time of any current rise in cases won't change that dramatically..
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 11:32:56 AM by Thomas Barlow »
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nadir

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11269 on: March 07, 2021, 12:40:37 AM »
Dr Theresa Laurie of the UK recently submitted a study combining many different clinical trials on ivermectin, where bad outcomes including death were found to be reduced by about an 60-80% as an effect of Ivermectin.

The research on Ivermectin doesn’t stop despite the lack of support from the establishment and almost total silencing from the mainstream media.

It was a pleasure to know about her scientific research directly from her in one of Today’s Dr Campbell’s video. Needs some attention span as the video is 1h long, the prize is that one does learn listening directly from the experts, not just from summarized news pamphlets.




Ivermectin Doesn't Speed Recovery from Mild COVID-19, Study Shows


Yes. And Dr. Laurie precisely addresses the result of this Colombian study and other studies on mild cases, where, while the findings of these studies are correct, they do not contribute significantly to the main conclusion of her meta-analysis ( significant reduction of worst outcome) since mild COVID studies do not lead to deaths both for the placebo group and the Ivermectin group. So it’s becoming abundantly clear that, while ivermectin effect is inconclusive for mild cases, its effect is clearly positive for those developing severe COVID.

She illustrates this precisely by pointing out the Colombian study in the video,
« Last Edit: March 07, 2021, 01:23:57 AM by nadir »

zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11270 on: March 07, 2021, 12:30:28 PM »
Cases still on the rise in most European countries, though declining in some more countries (numbers from Worldometers).

Czechia and Slovakia have asked Germany to take some of their sickest patients, a move that had been anticipated for weeks. Czech numbers are the most devastating: >12% already had a detected infection, but still ca. 1% more gets infected each week. How high can the seroprevalence be with these numbers? Something's gotta give, and my guess is that their numbers are at the peak now and will start to fall very soon.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11271 on: March 07, 2021, 03:29:59 PM »

Czechia and Slovakia have asked Germany to take some of their sickest patients, a move that had been anticipated for weeks. Czech numbers are the most devastating: >12% already had a detected infection, but still ca. 1% more gets infected each week. How high can the seroprevalence be with these numbers? Something's gotta give, and my guess is that their numbers are at the peak now and will start to fall very soon.

Thats fairly similar to numbers pre lockdown3 in London/SE/E regions of England. Similar effects on hospitals too, London did briefly fall over and might have collapsed if it couldn't draw support from other regions of the country.  It was enough extra immunity to bring those regions down a lot faster than the rest of the country in lockdown, but it wasn't controlling it without lockdown.

If infection acquired immunity is the only thing changing, I reckon their rate of increase would drop about 5% per week which brings it to zero in a couple of weeks. B.1.1.7 could spin that out another 2-3 weeks if its not yet dominant. And then there's Spring. (winter - summer is estimated at 25% for the UK, I'm not sure what Spring in Czechia might be worth, or whether it arrives soon enough to matter, but it might)

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11272 on: March 07, 2021, 03:47:34 PM »
Archimid
Sweden? Really? Have you compared Sweden and Norway?

Let's make it easy.

1.)  632

2.)  12,964

Which one is the total covid death count of Sweden and which one of Norway?

Ah but population! A person trained in elementary math would say...  I will leave that to the "skeptics"


_____________________

Numbers are not science.
Norway has half the population of Sweden. Sweden has about 2 million people over 65. Norway has about 850,000 over 65. Population density of Oslo is about 1,500 per sq. kilometre. Stockholm is about 5,000 per square kilometre.
When you take the demographics into account (even ignoring the all-important population density, and a much larger refugee/vulnerable population per capita than most other countries in Europe) the difference between Norway and Sweden was maybe 10 deaths per day per 100,000 people, so yes, they did worse than Norway, which is very isolated. If an analysis is done including density, the number will be much lower.
Sweden recently consolidated it's nursing homes, and got hit hard in it's much larger elderly population. If the vaccine works, Norway might avoid a big resurgence when they open up to the world.

But this is the reality below, wether people like bar graphs or not. People don't like them because they tell the real story they don't want to hear.


« Last Edit: March 09, 2021, 01:06:59 AM by Thomas Barlow »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11273 on: March 07, 2021, 04:44:59 PM »
But this is the reality below, wether people like bar graphs or not. People don't like them because they tell the real story they don't want to hear.

Dude, bar graphs can tell you exactly what you want to hear. The particular graphs you posted only tell me that 100k is too large a number to properly compare Sweden and Norway in a bar graph. What does it tell you?

I think the attached graph would be a bit more useful to the discussion at hand. 

I believe your point is that C19 is such a "weak disease" that we should do very little about it. Is that it?

That's what Sweden believed. Norway didn't share its assessment and took a more conventional approach to fight this disease. The result shows in the following Bar graph... at least to me. What does it say to you?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11274 on: March 07, 2021, 09:11:49 PM »
Tesla & CureVac Create Printer for COVID-19 Vaccines & Customized Drugs for Diseases Like Cancer
Quote
Currently, mRNA vaccines such as those developed by BioNTech and Moderna, are produced in huge factories and from there are transported with great logistics efforts around the world. Refrigerated boxes and special transporters must ensure that vaccines are completely frozen so that they do not lose their effectiveness.

The mRNA printer that Tesla and CureVac are working on could greatly simplify production. “The printers can be placed in pharmacies and doctors' offices around the world,” Hoerr said. The required reagents will be delivered there by courier, and the corresponding prescription for the required medicine will be downloaded over the Internet, then the medicine will be "printed" on-site.

In fact, CureVac and Tesla are not only working on a vaccine against the COVID-19, but, among other things, on mRNA therapy for cancer. With the help of an mRNA printer, specialists will be able in the future to develop mRNA drugs on a computer, tailored for a particular patient. The CureVac machine will be equipped with a variety of chemicals and will be able to convert a digital prescription into a physical preparation of mRNA for a specific person. Doctors call this approach personalized medicine.

“There is still a lot to optimize,” Hoerr admitted. It will take several years before the device is put into mass production. However, the first strands of mRNA for testing purposes are due out of the printer in Tübingen this summer.
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-and-curevac-create-printer-to-produce-covid-19-vaccines-and-customized-drugs-for-diseases-such-as-cancer
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11275 on: March 07, 2021, 10:55:58 PM »

But this is the reality below, wether people like bar graphs or not. People don't like them because they tell the real story they don't want to hear.

I like bar charts. While simple, they are great for gaining insight into just about anything. The bar chart below shows a disparity in the death rate due to COVID per 100,000 persons based on race in the U.S. This insight can now be used for further inquiry. What are the causes for the higher fatality rates for blacks and indigenous? Higher infection rates? Higher rate of underlying health issues? Poorer access to health care?

What I don't much care for is the intentional misuse of bar charts which you persist in doing.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2021, 11:33:18 PM by Shared Humanity »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11276 on: March 08, 2021, 11:08:26 AM »
But this is the reality below, wether people like bar graphs or not. People don't like them because they tell the real story they don't want to hear.

Dude, bar graphs can tell you exactly what you want to hear. The particular graphs you posted only tell me that 100k is too large a number to properly compare Sweden and Norway in a bar graph. What does it tell you?

I think the attached graph would be a bit more useful to the discussion at hand. 

I believe your point is that C19 is such a "weak disease" that we should do very little about it. Is that it?

That's what Sweden believed. Norway didn't share its assessment and took a more conventional approach to fight this disease. The result shows in the following Bar graph... at least to me. What does it say to you?

My graph tells the real story people don't want to hear. Everyone has bought into this as the great plague (although MANY experts and scientists have warned that it is not).
Demographics and the other factors - predicted for decades would result in this - prove that this is a very weak virus.
Saying that bar graphs tell you what you want to hear, could be said about anything.
You ignored the density of the major cities, which I already pointed out, and basically represented numbers again, as if it was a valuable comparison. And you are comparing apples and oranges randomly.
The graph I made tells you the reality. Look at my graph more carefully, and think about it more. What is it really telling you? 
« Last Edit: March 08, 2021, 11:30:55 AM by Thomas Barlow »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11277 on: March 08, 2021, 12:01:44 PM »
My graph tells the real story people don't want to hear.

Your graph tells no story because of your choice of scale. 100,000 is too large a number to compare to amounts in the tens and hundreds.  However, 100,000 conveniently obfuscate the orders of magnitude difference between Norway and Sweden. What happens to your graph if I eliminate the 100,000 column? See attachment 1.

Quote
  Everyone has bought into this as the great plague (although MANY experts and scientists have warned that it is not).


Nope. That's just you saying that. You can look back up this thread. We agreed a long time ago that the death rate was below 1% and highly skewed towards the elderly.

Quote
Demographics and the other factors - predicted for decades would result in this - prove, that this is a very weak virus.


Could you at least define what a "very weak virus" is?

Quote
Saying that bar graphs tell you what you want to hear, could be said about anything.


Indeed but in bar charts, it is particularly troublesome.

Quote
You ignored the density of the major cities, which I already pointed out, and basically represented numbers again, as if it was a valuable comparison.


New Jersey is a state comparable in population to Sweden, but with a density that is 100 times greater than Sweden, yet somehow they only got twice the deaths as Sweden. See attachment 2.

Quote
The graph I made tells you the reality. Look at my graph more carefully, and think about it more. What is it really telling you? 

I've looked at your post line by line, replicated your graphs, and dived into what you pretend I ignored. What your graph really tells me is that you are very scared and panicking about coronavirus. Your panic makes you see things that aren't there and ignore dangerous realities that are there.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11278 on: March 08, 2021, 02:35:26 PM »
New study on the nastiness of B.1.1.7

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.09.21250937v3

It controls for date of positive test, so its not being potentially confounded by poor care in overwhelmed hospitals as B.1.1.7 became dominant. Its now looks pretty clear that B.1.1.7 is significantly nastier for younger people as well as significantly easier to catch.

Quote
There is a high probability that the risk of mortality is increased by infection with VOC-202012/01 (p <0.001). The mortality hazard ratio associated with infection with VOC-202012/1 compared to infection with previously circulating variants is 1.64 (95% CI 1.32 - 2.04) in patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 in the community. In this comparatively low risk group, this represents an increase from 2.5 to 4.1 deaths per 1000 detected cases.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11279 on: March 08, 2021, 09:46:01 PM »
Archimid, your graphs seem to confirm something that I have always suspected, that there is a link between density and Covid deaths.

Of course, you could say that it doesn't work with North Dakota, excepted that in number of case, they are in the first position in the US with 132/1000, and regarding the deaths they are in the 12th position with 1.9/100
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

So maybe there is a link. North Dakota had some super spreader events that might explain the ranking in the cases, but it is probably not the quality of the health care over there that explain that 11 states have more deaths with less cases.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11280 on: March 08, 2021, 11:55:35 PM »
My graph tells the real story people don't want to hear.
Quote
Your graph tells no story because of your choice of scale. 100,000 is too large a number to compare to amounts in the tens and hundreds.  However, 100,000 conveniently obfuscate the orders of magnitude difference between Norway and Sweden. What happens to your graph if I eliminate the 100,000 column? See attachment 1.

Here is the same graph - 1st one below, for 1,000 population.
The whole point of ‘per capita population’ is that it looks the same at any level. It is not total deaths vs 100,000. It is deaths per capita population.
Per 1,000 population, the figure is 1.25 for Sweden, instead of 125 per 100,000 population.
It's ok, everyone makes mistakes (that's a doozy though. Huge)


Quote
  Everyone has bought into this as the great plague (although MANY experts and scientists have warned that it is not).
Quote
Nope. That's just you saying that. You can look back up this thread. We agreed a long time ago that the death rate was below 1% and highly skewed towards the elderly.
I was talking per capita population. But if you read my post just upthread, you will see the IFR is more like 0.2%, maybe 0.3%. Which is what the Ioannides study showed in March 2020, and has been replicated many times since.
Higher in high density cities (Why higher in big cities?…Because of density of population, pollution, obesity, poor health habits, stressed health systems, ageing demographic, more poverty, more minorities (some vulnerabiliy shown in studies) per-capita population.)
It is about 0.03% deaths of total global population, and most countries didn't bother much with lockdowns.


Quote
Demographics and the other factors - predicted for decades would result in this - prove, that this is a very weak virus.
Quote
Could you at least define what a "very weak virus" is?

A very weak virus is seen by inserting 0.23% IFR, instead of your 1% IFR, and using your phrase above “We agreed a long time ago that the death rate was below 0.23%, and highly skewed towards the elderly.” Notice the last part of your sentence. You said it yourself.
Even a 1% IFR is very weak. Experts agree that cases are at 10 times the number being caught by testing (refs. below), so 1% of total cases documented x 10, would mean 12 million deaths worldwide so far.

>30% are immune pre-2020, and 80% of the <70% left over, are prone to none, or mild symptoms, or very light hospital stay.   Ageing demographics and millions more on some kind of mild or serious life-support (like my Dad of 88 years, would not be alive, so it's great, but affects ageing demographics)

snip

Quote
You ignored the density of the major cities, which I already pointed out, and basically represented numbers again, as if it was a valuable comparison.

Quote
New Jersey is a state comparable in population to Sweden, but with a density that is 100 times greater than Sweden, yet somehow they only got twice the deaths as Sweden. See attachment 2.

New Jersey’s population is about 80% that of Sweden. But it is an absurd comparison. Parse out each major city or metro-area for population size and density, and compare them to Stockholm size and density, then get back to me, They are not comparable, but yes New Jersey has more than twice the deaths per-capita population than Sweden (which has a much bigger % as elderly population than NJ has).
The 2 places have a difference of about 140 deaths per 100,000 population - see bar graph below. A VERY weak virus


Quote
The graph I made tells you the reality. Look at my graph more carefully, and think about it more. What is it really telling you? 
Quote
I've looked at your post line by line, replicated your graphs, and dived into what you pretend I ignored. What your graph really tells me is that you are very scared and panicking about coronavirus. Your panic makes you see things that aren't there and ignore dangerous realities that are there.
Lol, total projection. Laughable smear tactic and strawman. Not worth my time. You lost the argument. This is a stunningly weak virus.

Refs:
 - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2768834?guestAccessKey=7a5c32e6-3c27-41b3-b46c-43c4a38bbe00&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=072120
 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
- https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-may-have-nearly-10-times-more-covid-cases-official-figureantibodies-study-1557892
« Last Edit: March 09, 2021, 04:35:43 AM by Thomas Barlow »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11281 on: March 08, 2021, 11:58:54 PM »
Archimid- Thanks for posting some simple bar charts that provide insight. Pretty clear that Sweden has done a very poor job as compared to Norway.

Also, you may want to stop engaging TB. His latest chart just above is hysterical. I'm just going to point and laugh from now on.

« Last Edit: March 09, 2021, 12:43:33 AM by Shared Humanity »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11282 on: March 09, 2021, 12:08:03 AM »
Archimid- Thanks for posting some simple bar charts that provide insight. Pretty clear that Sweden has done a very poor job as compared to Norway.

Also, you may want to stop engaging TB. His latest chart just above is hysterical. I'm just going to quietly laugh at him from now on.
You clearly don't understand any of this. Best to bow out now.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11283 on: March 09, 2021, 12:36:00 AM »
Norway was killing very old and frail people by giving them Covid vaccine.

That's how desperate they are to show good numbers. They'd rather kill people than have them show up as a "Covid-19 death" in the statistics.

I think the most severe effect of the Covid-19 pandemic is permanent brain damage. Not from the virus itself, but from everything else about the virus. The thread about bar graphs is no exception.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11284 on: March 09, 2021, 12:58:33 AM »
Norway was killing very old and frail people by giving them Covid vaccine.

That's how desperate they are to show good numbers. They'd rather kill people than have them show up as a "Covid-19 death" in the statistics.

I think the most severe effect of the Covid-19 pandemic is permanent brain damage. Not from the virus itself, but from everything else about the virus. The thread about bar graphs is no exception.

That sounds a bit unfair. Having some friends in Norway and having visited there a few times, “they rather kill people than show up as Covid-19 death” is not believable at all. Fatal errors have been committed? Surely. The Swedish authorities also had to take some steps back in their unique approach to the pandemic, as they were risking falling into a more severe health crisis this Winter.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11285 on: March 09, 2021, 01:06:31 AM »
Study of Coronavirus Variants Predict. Virus Evolving to Escape Current Vaccines
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-coronavirus-variants-virus-evolving-current.html

A new study of the U.K. and South Africa variants of SARS-CoV-2 predicts that current vaccines and certain monoclonal antibodies may be less effective at neutralizing these variants and that the new variants raise the specter that reinfections could be more likely

The study was published in Nature on March 8, 2021. A preprint of the study was first posted to BioRxiv on January 26, 2021.

The study's predictions are now being borne out with the first reported results of the Novavax vaccine, says the study's lead author David Ho, MD. The company reported on Jan. 28 that the vaccine was nearly 90% effective in the company's U.K. trial, but only 49.4% effective in its South Africa trial, where most cases of COVID-19 are caused by the B.1.351 variant.

... Ho and his team found that antibodies in blood samples taken from people inoculated with the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine were less effective at neutralizing the two variants, B.1.1.7, which emerged last September in England, and B.1.351, which emerged from South Africa in late 2020. Against the U.K. variant, neutralization dropped by roughly 2-fold, but against the South Africa variant, neutralization dropped by 6.5- to 8.5-fold.

"The approximately 2-fold loss of neutralizing activity against the U.K. variant is unlikely to have an adverse impact due to the large 'cushion' of residual neutralizing antibody activity," Ho says, "and we see that reflected in the Novavax results where the vaccine was 85.6% effective against the U.K. variant."

Data from Ho's study about the loss in neutralizing activity against the South Africa variant are more worrisome.

"The drop in neutralizing activity against the South Africa variant is appreciable, and we're now seeing, based on the Novavax results, that this is causing a reduction in protective efficacy," Ho says.

The new study did not examine the more recent variant found in Brazil (B.1.1.28) but given the similar spike mutations between the Brazil and South Africa variants, Ho says the Brazil variant should behave similarly to the South Africa variant.

The new study conducted an extensive analysis of mutations in the two SARS-CoV-2 variants compared to other recent studies, which have reported similar findings.

The new study examined all mutations in the spike protein of the two variants. (Vaccines and monoclonal antibody treatments work by recognizing the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.)

The researchers created SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses (viruses that produce the coronavirus spike protein but cannot cause infection) with the eight mutations found in the U.K. variant and the nine mutations found in the South African variant.

They then measured the sensitivity of these pseudoviruses to monoclonal antibodies developed to treat COVID patients, convalescent serum from patients who were infected earlier in the pandemic, and serum from patients who have been vaccinated with the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine.

The study measured the neutralizing activity of 18 different monoclonal antibodies—including the antibodies in two products authorized for use in the United States.

Against the U.K. variant, most antibodies were still potent, although the neutralizing activity of two antibodies in development was modestly impaired.

Against the South Africa variant, however, the neutralizing activity of four antibodies was completely or markedly abolished. Those antibodies include bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555, approved for use in the United States) that was completely inactive against the South Africa variant, and casirivimab, one of the two antibodies in an approved antibody cocktail (REGN-COV) that was 58-fold less effective at neutralizing the South Africa variant compared to the original virus. The second antibody in the cocktail, imdevimab, retained its neutralizing ability, as did the complete cocktail.  ...

Serum from most patients who had recovered from COVID earlier in the pandemic had 11-fold less neutralizing activity against the South Africa variant and 4-fold less neutralizing activity against the U.K. variant.

"The concern here is that reinfection might be more likely if one is confronted with these variants, particularly the South Africa one," Ho says.

Pengfei Wang et al. Antibody Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Variants B.1.351 and B.1.1.7, Nature (2021)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11286 on: March 09, 2021, 03:49:57 AM »
Just got my 2nd Pfizer shot this morning. Ahhhh well.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11287 on: March 09, 2021, 04:13:38 AM »

But this is the reality below, wether people like bar graphs or not. People don't like them because they tell the real story they don't want to hear.

I like bar charts. While simple, they are great for gaining insight into just about anything. The bar chart below shows a disparity in the death rate due to COVID per 100,000 persons based on race in the U.S. This insight can now be used for further inquiry. What are the causes for the higher fatality rates for blacks and indigenous? Higher infection rates? Higher rate of underlying health issues? Poorer access to health care?

What I don't much care for is the intentional misuse of bar charts which you persist in doing.

The causes may be any number of those you posted or possibly others.  You may be interested in the death rates (per million) for the 30 most populous countries:

U.K.        1,828
Italy        1,657
U.S.        1,621
Spain       1,527
Mexico     1,470
France     1,360
Brazil       1,248
Colombia  1,182
Germany     866
So. Africa    849
Iran            717
Russia         613
Turkey        342
Indonesia    136
India           114
Philippines   113
Egypt          106
Japan            65
Pakistan        59
Myanmar       59
Bangladesh    51
Kenya           34
So. Korea      32
Ethiopia        21
Nigeria           9
D.R. Congo     8
China             3
Thailand         1
Vietnam         0.4
Tanzania        0.3

The top of the list is dominated by countries in Europe or he America, while the bottom are in Asia and Africa.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11288 on: March 09, 2021, 04:51:45 AM »
Why is he using the per capita ratio of rates per 100,000 then comparing it to 1000?
It doesn't make sense to me.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11289 on: March 09, 2021, 09:28:53 AM »
The best advice was to stop engaging.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11290 on: March 09, 2021, 09:39:24 AM »
Just let him spread his incoherent lies without obstruction?

Where you err is believing that his words are without power, however ridiculously wrong his words are. People out there will believe him, even if they can't understand them, and reinforce their own views with the garbage Thomas Barlow spews.

This is not harmless misinformation however unintelligible it is.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11291 on: March 09, 2021, 10:55:43 AM »
Archimid, your graphs seem to confirm something that I have always suspected, that there is a link between density and Covid deaths.

There must be thousands of variables, maybe many more,  that have a strong effect on the characteristics of the pandemic. I'm certain that population density is one of them and probably one of the strongest ones after certain conditions are met.

But the difference in population density between Sweden and Norway is most certainly not enough to account for the difference in the total number of deaths.

Each country made choices on how to manage the pandemic. That is the biggest differentiator between Sweden and Norway. Choices.

Sweden's approach wasn't entirely wrong.

I think the Swedish people's grit and discipline showed. By using distancing and common-sense measures and with the help of summer and very low population density,  they successfully controlled the epidemic for a little bit, although at a rather high price in life.

Had they done nothing, it would have been very different. It is only the misinformation networks that pretend Sweden did nothing.  They distanced and followed hygiene measures with discipline.
Had they thrown in masks from the beginning, they would've succeeded at eradicating C19 from their lands, at least during summer. Sadly, misinformation mindfucked everyone.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11292 on: March 09, 2021, 01:49:26 PM »
Reply #11276

Thomas in that second chart 100000 is equal to 10000000.

PS: One further article (not Covid related removed). Attack the argument not the poster.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11293 on: March 09, 2021, 01:55:19 PM »
As far as I know, the Swedish government opted for a strategy that wasn't based on fear, distrust and division. That was the main reason it was vilified (by BSers, of course).
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11294 on: March 09, 2021, 02:12:51 PM »
https://www.nu.nl/dieren/6120747/doorbraak-op-universiteit-gent-honden-kunnen-coronavirus-ruiken.html

And in minor good news. Research from the university of Gent shows dogs can detect Covid faster and more accurately then rapid tests.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11295 on: March 09, 2021, 02:50:12 PM »
As far as I know, the Swedish government opted for a strategy that wasn't based on fear, distrust and division. That was the main reason it was vilified (by BSers, of course).

No Neven. Their strategy was based on obviously (even at that time!) false assumptions of many things, especially IFR, which made them believe that herdimmunity was always just around the corner, so there was no need to stop the spread of the virus, because the economic/social costs were bigger than the loss of life.
 
They expected to reach herd immunity by April 2020, the May, then June, etc. Then summer bailed them out and they thought that they were wright. Autumn/winter proved them wrong again.

Their assumptions were also based on hazy T-cell defense which led them to think that many more people are actually protected than the number who have antibodies.

We followed their follies on this thread from the beginning.

They had a theory which even last spring seemed wrong. It was proven wrong and their whole strategy was based on those glaringly false theories and assumptions.

China's strategy was based on science. Sweden's strategy was based on hope. But as they say in financial markets: hope is not a strategy...

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11296 on: March 09, 2021, 06:08:29 PM »
El Cid speaks the truth. Sweden had two very clear waves, see attachment.

The initial wave subsided because of a combination of two things. The onset of summer and the distancing and hygiene practices of the Swedish people. The combination of these two factors, weather and the effort of the Swedish people ended the first wave.

Their approach suffered a number of wrong assumptions, like not masking. But the whole herd immunity fiasco was just sad to see. They misinterpreted the weather and their own (insufficient) efforts as herd immunity. That lead to the second wave.

After the protection of summer waned, the infection resumed, like clockwork. Which then they again wrestle it down through social restriction measures and masks.

But one thing is what Sweden did and another different thing what the C19 risk deniers like to convey.

C19 risk deniers try to make people believe that Sweden just ignored coronavirus and it went away all by itself. Thomas Barlow seems to believe that. That was the propaganda. It couldn't be further from the truth. Sweden had to manage the pandemic by restricting social activity.
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zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11297 on: March 09, 2021, 06:54:43 PM »

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11298 on: March 09, 2021, 07:18:04 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

To get a better look at where we are I attach graphs of current trends, using the time period from just before the 3rd wave peak to now.

UK data
It is difficult not to believe that it is lockdown plus the vaccinatioin programme aimed at high risk groups that has caused the plunge in daily new cases and daily deaths.
Note how the rate of decline in daily new cases has slowed while the decline in daily deaths has not.

We will have to wait a few weeks to see if the vaccination programme overcomes the potential increase in virus transmission from opening the schools.

US data
Daily deaths at 1,600 per day are now half of what they were at the peak.
Daily new cases at 58,000 per day are less than 25% of what they were at the peak.

We will have to wait a few weeks to see if the vaccination programme overcomes the potential increase in virus transmission from the haste to return to BAU.

Italy Data

Daily new cases have doubled from just below of 10,000 per day in late February to just above 20,000 per day, more than half the peak in mid-November 2020.
Daily deaths are creeping up to above 300 per day.
Daily increases in active cases are now 7,000 per day.

All now depends on accelerating vaccination?

World Data
Daily new cases stalled at around 400,000 per day after reducing from the peak of nearly 750,000 per day.
Daily deaths now barely reducing at circa 9,000 per day after reducing from the peak of around 14,500 per day.

Where is the goddam world vaccination programme?

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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11299 on: March 09, 2021, 08:28:07 PM »
The causes may be any number of those you posted or possibly others.  You may be interested in the death rates (per million) for the 30 most populous countries:

U.K.        1,828
Italy        1,657
U.S.        1,621
Spain       1,527
Mexico     1,470
France     1,360
Brazil       1,248
Colombia  1,182
Germany     866
So. Africa    849
Iran            717
Russia         613
Turkey        342
Indonesia    136
India           114
Philippines   113
Egypt          106
Japan            65
Pakistan        59
Myanmar       59
Bangladesh    51
Kenya           34
So. Korea      32
Ethiopia        21
Nigeria           9
D.R. Congo     8
China             3
Thailand         1
Vietnam         0.4
Tanzania        0.3

The top of the list is dominated by countries in Europe or he America, while the bottom are in Asia and Africa.

Why did you only include the 30 most populous? Are you trying to control for population density?

I do like to look at the ranking of all countries by death rates per million. (Something that could easily become an informative bar chart by the way)

Here is Worldometer numbers. Ranking it by deaths per million and the U.S. is a dismal 12th place. We are suffering the effects of such a poor response. Sweden is ranked 24th. Better but no medals for that performance.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And of course, you always need to ask yourself whether the numbers can be trusted. I suspect the numbers from the U.S. and Sweden are fairly good. China or Nigeria? Not so much.