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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 587549 times)

Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11600 on: April 03, 2021, 03:25:29 PM »
Personal Values and Political Worldviews Shape Perception of COVID-19 Risk More Than Its Severity

AstraZeneca Says Vaccine 80% Effective for Elderly, No Blood Clot Risk
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-astrazeneca-vaccine-effective-elderly-blood.html

... AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine was 79% effective at preventing symptomatic Covid-19 in the overall population and 100% effective at preventing severe disease and hospitalization, the biotech firm said Monday, following its US phase III efficiency trials.

The US phase III trial of the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University involved 32,449 participants, with two thirds receiving the jab, the pharmaceutical firm said in a statement.

Around 20 percent were 65 or older, and about 60 percent had health conditions associated with a higher risk of severe Covid-19, such as diabetes, severe obesity or cardiac disease.

The trial's independent data safety monitoring board found no increased risk of thrombosis among the 21,583 participants who received at least one dose, the statement said.

Hi VoxMundi, I'm back to ASIF after a few weeks of absence due to health problems (no, it's not the Covid, I know how to vary my pleasures).
I will soon be vaccinated with Astrazeneca, you surely know the tragedy-comedy that takes place here in Europe on the risk of thrombosis. On the other hand, I have never heard the slightest explanation from the morons on TV about why the older you are, the less risk there is, nor why people don't take products like aspirin to thin the blood and avoid thrombosis, but maybe the mechanism involved is irrelevant?
Thanks if you can help me or not, we can't know everything.


La cravate est un accessoire permettant d'indiquer la direction du cerveau de l'homme.
Un petit croquis en dit plus qu'un grand discours, mais beaucoup moins qu'un gros chèque.
Pierre DAC

Thomas Barlow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11601 on: April 03, 2021, 06:04:06 PM »
Here you have a person who has advocated for harm and help spread the misinformation that caused more than 2,000,000 deaths..

More than 56,000,000 people die on Earth every year.
140,000,000 babies are born every year on Earth.
See this comparison --> https://i.postimg.cc/05CGsxHG/GLOBAL-COVID-BIRTHS-DEATHS.jpg


REFS.
https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths

« Last Edit: April 03, 2021, 08:32:38 PM by Thomas Barlow »
My YouTube channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfk66dfLTAsZIVYbh7bqcoA/videos - talks about climate-change, environmental destruction, BLM, lockdown-hysteria, vampire-capitalism.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11602 on: April 03, 2021, 09:37:24 PM »

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/apr/03/california-covid-19-coronavirus-vacation-crowds
California scrambles as maskless crowds flood vacation hotspots
Tens of thousands flood Santa Monica Pier as authorities send mixed messages about coronavirus safety



Vaccination vs Reckless behaviour. Who wins?

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11603 on: April 03, 2021, 09:46:04 PM »

I will soon be vaccinated with Astrazeneca, you surely know the tragedy-comedy that takes place here in Europe on the risk of thrombosis. On the other hand, I have never heard the slightest explanation from the morons on TV about why the older you are, the less risk there is, nor why people don't take products like aspirin to thin the blood and avoid thrombosis, but maybe the mechanism involved is irrelevant?
Thanks if you can help me or not, we can't know everything.
The older you are the clearer the benefit from not getting COVID is, which is the main reason not to worry about really rare effects.

Its possible there's an unusual type of clotting that is also riskier in the young but the big factor is the way the balance of risk changes due to COVID becoming far nastier as people get older.

In the UK it seems to just be coincidence, there's the same rate of clotting reported with Pfizer as AZ, but there may be some other factor in Germany and Norway where rates seem to have been a bit higher and particular to AZ. Possibly its an interaction with contraceptive pills, it the same type of clots as they can cause, possibly its an inherently stronger immune response in younger people triggering more side effects in countries that were giving AZ to a younger demographic than the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56594189

zufall

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11604 on: April 03, 2021, 10:05:25 PM »
possibly its an inherently stronger immune response in younger people triggering more side effects in countries that were giving AZ to a younger demographic than the UK.

That is suspected to be the reason here in Germany. Here, the higher rate of thrombosis cases started only a short while ago when vaccination was extended to nurses, teachers etc, after the first > 1 million AZ shots had been given to the oldest age groups with less complications.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11605 on: April 04, 2021, 03:48:55 AM »
My cousin and his wife scheduled my first shot for Monday. I don't know what kind it is, but it has been a long time coming.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11606 on: April 04, 2021, 03:15:21 PM »
Seven day rolling average for daily new deaths in the U.S. continues to drop. It is now 873 per day, the lowest it has been since November 1, 2020 when it was 871.

16.9% of Americans have been fully vaccinated.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2021, 05:10:50 PM by Shared Humanity »

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11607 on: April 05, 2021, 02:25:47 AM »
I'M TIRED OF THE PANDEMIC



Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11608 on: April 05, 2021, 02:34:05 AM »

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11609 on: April 05, 2021, 03:30:59 PM »
I don't understand how someone can talk in such a condescending way and not feel slightly ashamed. If that guy is so smart, why doesn't he know he's stupid too?
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11610 on: April 05, 2021, 03:35:06 PM »
Borders have nothing to do with th disaster that is COVID in the U.S. It has to due with the criminal incompetence of the previous administration acting in concert with willing accomplices in the Republican Party and far right media.

and yet other countries suffered a similar fate, regardless of the actions of the administration.  I think it is time to realize that this virus defied all the pundits who thought they knew what they were doing.  A different administration likely would have had similar results.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11611 on: April 05, 2021, 04:02:59 PM »
I don't understand how someone can talk in such a condescending way and not feel slightly ashamed. If that guy is so smart, why doesn't he know he's stupid too?
I have mentioned this before, we are now in the midst of the rise of secular fundamentalists. Like Christian, Islamic, Jewish, or any other kind, these people have ever-changing rules that they use to flout moral superiority, and shame those who they deem inferior, in a bid to boost their own fragile egos and self-esteem. It is deplorable.

Israel saw only 177 new cases yesterday. Passover may be impacting data collection (?) but it seems that is not the case as the numbers have been consistent except for a gap on 3/27. One week ago, they had 541 new cases (i.e., we are down to 32% of the # of cases one week ago!). This is probably another excellent sign re: impending end of pandemic in vaccinated countries.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11612 on: April 05, 2021, 07:38:51 PM »
Borders have nothing to do with th disaster that is COVID in the U.S. It has to due with the criminal incompetence of the previous administration acting in concert with willing accomplices in the Republican Party and far right media.

and yet other countries suffered a similar fate, regardless of the actions of the administration.  I think it is time to realize that this virus defied all the pundits who thought they knew what they were doing.  A different administration likely would have had similar results.

South Korea
Total Cases: 105,752
Total Deaths: 1748

U.S.
Total Cases: 31,429,560
Total Deaths: 568,856

Anyone other than Trump in the White House, Republican or Democrat, and hundreds of thousands of Americans would be alive today.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11613 on: April 05, 2021, 10:22:37 PM »
Most people could probably do better especially if they tried but there is a limit. The states were quite different in how they went about the measures and the same thing goes for Germany where the states do not always agree with the central government.

If you want to break down by countries the scores of the Asian vs European countries are interesting.

We had good paper preparedness and did nothing when it mattered nor had anything like tests in the needed capacity. We do not have Trump in Europe yet we did little better.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

nadir

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11614 on: April 06, 2021, 12:40:21 AM »
I don't understand how someone can talk in such a condescending way and not feel slightly ashamed. If that guy is so smart, why doesn't he know he's stupid too?

I agree. This guy exhibits a mixture of overconfidence on his government and real despise of his neighbours. Typically these folks don’t live a real life, and are the happiest lot staying at home, with or without pandemic, reading their NYT bestsellers, eating up whatever the TV feeds them with, believing they are the chosen ones, that they are part of an elite or something like that, when in reality they are the dumbest ones, the useful idiots that any government appreciates as the fabric of an obedient society.

glennbuck

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11615 on: April 06, 2021, 01:39:43 AM »
In non zero community transmission strategy States the COVID19 policy choice is a false position between the health of the people and health of the economy. They do not say this, yet that is what it means to not pursue ZCT. It is, of course, a false dichotomy.

 A good policy protects both. 23% of global population and their economies are currently being protected by ZCT. Bad policy harms both. Just look at the deaths and economic harms in the differing countries. Go on. Compare Vietnam or New Zealand's outcomes with USA or England's outcomes. Use yer google and compare the outcomes.





Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11616 on: April 06, 2021, 01:41:26 AM »
Brazil has some interesting results.... I am sure those who think Covid is nothing will find a way to undermine this update.

In the end, regardless of the excuse-making people make here for the terrible results in places like the US and Europe, this virus can be managed. Those who failed are those who keep trying to remind us that it is basically unstoppable. Which is great PR for excuse-makers in their respective countries.

The power brokers of the world just love the people who keep reminding us how mild Covid is, especially the ones who talk about the corruption of governments and the desire to increase their own wealth and power and see how power brokers are using Covid to increase their power.

I mean, how ironic is it to have those who supposedly see through the bullshit end up being the same people who undermine Covid and the attempts to stop it and who make excuses for bad management. If it wasn't so bad (remember, there are charts here putting Covid last year on a similar death level as WW2 and WW1) it would be comical.

Why cant the excuse makers understand that you can have a virus that is a problem while also having power brokers use it to their own advantage?
Can the excuse makers please explain how there are countries with 23% extra deaths without it being Covid? Deaths per year are crazy consistent, so if Covid isn't that bad, why is an extra 23% in the space of one year, okay?

The countries that took action are the same ones that managed Covid well.
The ones where it was ignored, undermined, and treated like an economic problem rather than a health problem have lost a lot of extra people. It may have still spread and been bad, but it would have still been a far better result than doing nothing.

But hey, it is only old people and fat people and those who need medications to survive or those who cant afford decent food. So, the poor people.

I wonder what these same people will be saying when Covid just keeps getting more contagious, which it is, and when it eventually avoids the vaccines, which it will, and when it becomes more lethal to young and healthy people, which it is.

You guys better dig in deep, because you are going to have to start coming up with some mind-bending reasons for the death toll and health toll Covid has in the coming years.


https://au.news.yahoo.com/impossible-to-stop-dire-threat-more-deadly-infectious-covid-strain-225156004.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/04/05/brazil-variant-coronavirus-south-america/

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11617 on: April 06, 2021, 01:52:43 AM »
Borders have nothing to do with th disaster that is COVID in the U.S. It has to due with the criminal incompetence of the previous administration acting in concert with willing accomplices in the Republican Party and far right media.

and yet other countries suffered a similar fate, regardless of the actions of the administration.  I think it is time to realize that this virus defied all the pundits who thought they knew what they were doing.  A different administration likely would have had similar results.

South Korea
Total Cases: 105,752
Total Deaths: 1748

U.S.
Total Cases: 31,429,560
Total Deaths: 568,856

Anyone other than Trump in the White House, Republican or Democrat, and hundreds of thousands of Americans would be alive today.

And yet, you have only your own belief system to support your claim.  It is easy to make unsubstantiated what ifs when no possible evidence can support or refute it.

U.S.
Total Cases: 31,429,560
Total Deaths: 568,856
Total Population:  332,473,823
Deaths as a % of population:  0.17%

Czechia:
Total Cases: 1,551,909
Total Deaths: 27,715
Total Population:  10,724,008
Deaths as a % of population:  0.26%

One can easily pick the statistics they want to support their own beliefs, but to claim that the death toll would've been halved with anyone else at the helm seems like quite the stretch.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11618 on: April 06, 2021, 07:57:49 AM »
Rodius,

I agree with you. (Almost) all European politicians failed badly . The March-April lockdowns almost eradicated the virus here. All they should have been doing was extreme testing and contact tracing and selective lockdowns where and when needed and they could have kept the both the continent's economy humming and saving its population. Instead, the economy tanked and hundreds of thousands died needlessly: lose-lose. I say this is negligent genocide.

(and no, it is not the benefit of hindsight, it was obvious by last May that huge test-capacities and contact-tracing abilities need to be built during the summer (and testing everyone at the EU borders just like Iceland did) to avoid a fall/winter massacre...I tried to nudge my government into that direction....to no avail: no we have 22 000 dead out of a bit more than 9 million, 8 000 more will die in the next 2 months...and the economy collapsed of course).

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11619 on: April 06, 2021, 01:49:30 PM »
‘Clear’ Link Between Rare Blood Clotting Cases and AstraZeneca Vaccine, EMA Official Says
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-ema-links-astrazeneca-vaccine-thrombosis.html

A senior official from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has told an Italian daily it is “clear” that there is a link between the AstraZeneca vaccine and a rare form of blood clot but that the cause is still not known, Agence France-Presse is reporting from Rome.

https://twitter.com/dannyctkemp/status/1379368851826180096

“In my opinion, we can say it now, it is clear there is a link with the vaccine. But we still do not know what causes this reaction,” the EMA head of vaccines, Marco Cavaleri, told Italy’s Il Messaggero newspaper.

The official reportedly told the paper that Europe’s drug regulator would be making a statement on the issue “in the coming hours”.

... Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told the BBC that the clots raised questions over whether young people should get the jab. He said: “There is increasing evidence that there is a rare risk associated particularly with the AstraZeneca vaccine, but it may be associated at a lower level with other vaccines, of these unusual blood clots with low platelet counts.

“It appears that risk is age related, it may possibly be – but the data is weaker on this – related to sex.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11620 on: April 06, 2021, 02:56:53 PM »
Pfizer Halts Shipment of 700,000 COVID Vaccines to Israel After the Country Reportedly Failed to Make Payment
https://www.insider.com/pfizer-halts-shipment-of-covid-vaccines-after-israel-doesnt-pay-2021-4?amp

Pfizer halted a shipment of 700,000 COVID vaccines scheduled to arrive in Israel on Sunday following the country's failure to pay for the last 2.5 million doses shipped there.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/banana-republic-pfizer-outraged-israel-failed-to-pay-for-covid-vaccines-664140

The Jerusalem Post wrote that local Israeli media outlet Army Radio was circulating reports that Pfizer staff were calling the country a "banana republic," commenting on its political instability. The media outlet also reported that senior officials at Pfizer were concerned that the Israeli government — currently led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — would not come through with payment.

According to Reuters, the Israeli government sought to buy around 36 million more Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine doses, which would cost the country around 3.5 billion shekels (around $1.05 billion). But these plans — as well as a motion to approve funds to pay for the 700,000 COVID vaccines — were halted when Netanyahu and defense minister Benny Gantz got into a political tiff over judicial appointments.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-pfizer/pfizer-says-working-on-new-covid-19-vaccine-supply-deal-to-israel-idUSKBN2BS1EM
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11621 on: April 06, 2021, 03:02:07 PM »
In the U.S., the increase in the seven day moving average of new cases has stalled over the last few days and is now hovering just above 65K. The seven day moving average for deaths continues to drop and now is at 808.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If daily new cases remains at 65K and assuming an IFR of 0.8%, daily deaths should continue to drop to around 500.

Meanwhile, as of 6 a.m. EDT April 4, a total of 61,416,536 Americans have been fully vaccinated, or 18.5 percent of the country's population.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-percentage-of-population-vaccinated-march-15.html#:~:text=As%20of%206%20a.m.%20EDT,percent%20of%20the%20country's%20population.

About 55% of Americans over the age of 65 have been fully vaccinated and over 75% have received at least one shot. (See charts for demographic vaccination data from the CDC.)


« Last Edit: April 06, 2021, 03:24:03 PM by Shared Humanity »

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11622 on: April 06, 2021, 03:06:53 PM »
Rodius,

I agree with you. (Almost) all European politicians failed badly . The March-April lockdowns almost eradicated the virus here. All they should have been doing was extreme testing and contact tracing and selective lockdowns where and when needed and they could have kept the both the continent's economy humming and saving its population. Instead, the economy tanked and hundreds of thousands died needlessly: lose-lose. I say this is negligent genocide.

(and no, it is not the benefit of hindsight, it was obvious by last May that huge test-capacities and contact-tracing abilities need to be built during the summer (and testing everyone at the EU borders just like Iceland did) to avoid a fall/winter massacre...I tried to nudge my government into that direction....to no avail: no we have 22 000 dead out of a bit more than 9 million, 8 000 more will die in the next 2 months...and the economy collapsed of course).

I feel that you are being too pessimistic.  It is neither genocide nor economic collapse.  A death toll of 0.02% is hardly genocide (the Armenian, Rwandan, an Cambodian genocides killed more than 50% each).  Most economies have recovered substantially from their initial hits. 

"Although the global economic recovery began in the third quarter as countries started to lift restrictions, UNCTAD noted that a second wave of virus hit earlier than expected in the final quarter of 2020 which dampened the recovery, most notably in Western Europe.

Countering this downward pressure on growth were vaccine breakthroughs and improved management of lockdown measures, both of which offset COVID-19's overall economic impact, the UN report said.

Regionally, UNCTAD data indicates that East Asia and Latin America fared “a little better than expected” – likely shored up by Brazilian growth - but Europe, India and South Africa did worse.

'Positive surprises' were Brazil, Turkey and the United States, thanks to large relief measures that acted as a shock-absorber for recession, while rising commodity and asset prices spurred growth.

The rebound in raw materials prices also benefited “several” developing African economies, UNCTAD continued, while the region as a whole saw lower-than-expected pressure on public health systems from COVID-19, UNCTAD said."

https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1087712

Andre Koelewijn

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11623 on: April 06, 2021, 03:42:00 PM »
Yelp, it looks like the death toll for the decade will be in the 1-10 million tranche, unless something goes badly wrong. I picked the 10-100 million tranche, mainly because I never dreamed we would get vaccines so quick. I am glad I was wrong.
If you're right this time, then I picked the right bin. I admit, I was in a pessimistic mood back then.

However, I hope you're right this time, and not for instance the Brazilian variant P1 taking over internationally - or even something worse.
A decade is a long time.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11624 on: April 06, 2021, 04:58:07 PM »

I feel that you are being too pessimistic.  It is neither genocide nor economic collapse.  A death toll of 0.02% is hardly genocide

Millions of unnecessary deaths. What do you call that? An accident?
The solution was obvious from the beginning and yet, they failed to implement it.

If you , in your line of work, act so stupidly that it leads to somebody dying, that is called negligent homicide.  If millions die because of the stupid way you do your job (and as an added bonus you create a huge recession) I don't know what that should be called.

Anyway, we can argue about nomenclature but it is sure as hell that our "leaders" did an extremely shitty job. As a minimum all of them should be rid of their political power

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11625 on: April 06, 2021, 05:25:32 PM »
6 million pollution deaths per year every year. Those are taken for granted.

If air traffic from Asia had been stopped/severely limited early on in January or February then maybe we could have prevented the outbreak in Europe but no one was interested in that initially. Then we did not have enough tests so asymptomatic cases were not tested etc.

Also Covid can serve as a nice distraction (as the last dutch government used it).

Just in case you did not know our leaders do not care about us or the countries so you can vote them out but of course many people will think they did a decent job and reward them with another vote (as happened here) so good luck with that.   

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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11626 on: April 06, 2021, 06:00:42 PM »

I feel that you are being too pessimistic.  It is neither genocide nor economic collapse.  A death toll of 0.02% is hardly genocide

Millions of unnecessary deaths. What do you call that? An accident?
The solution was obvious from the beginning and yet, they failed to implement it.

If you , in your line of work, act so stupidly that it leads to somebody dying, that is called negligent homicide.  If millions die because of the stupid way you do your job (and as an added bonus you create a huge recession) I don't know what that should be called.

Anyway, we can argue about nomenclature but it is sure as hell that our "leaders" did an extremely shitty job. As a minimum all of them should be rid of their political power

Do you really believe that anyone (healthcare, governmental, or otherwise) truly knew what the solution was back in the beginning?  Information was changing on a nearly daily basis that the U.N., CDC, and other agencies were scrambling to inform the medical profession and general public as to proper procedures.  The death toll is approaching 3 million.  Do you really believe that almost all of those were preventable?  The flu has killed half a million annually for decades, are we responsible for their deaths also? 

As far as nomenclature goes, your "huge recession" is certainly way off base.  IMO, the world could have closed down completely to minimize the death toll from the virus, but the economic consequences would've been so severe that future generations would've said we acted stupidly.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11627 on: April 06, 2021, 07:23:55 PM »
If you , in your line of work, act so stupidly that it leads to somebody dying, that is called negligent homicide.  If millions die because of the stupid way you do your job (and as an added bonus you create a huge recession) I don't know what that should be called.

A political miscalculation.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11628 on: April 06, 2021, 08:35:45 PM »

....A death toll of 0.02% is hardly genocide ....
Multiply that by 10.

So far the death toll as a % of ppulation is
- World  0.037 % (do we believe this?) given...
- USA    0.171%
- Brazil  0.156 %
- Italy    0.185%
- UK      0.186%

- Gibraltar 0.279%

Hardly genocide but the data will show the extent to which minority groups (race, poverty, sexual identity etc) have been favoured or disfavoured by systemic bias in our health systems.

- And it isn't over - yet.
Variants? Southern Hemisphere winter? Northern Hemisphere winter ?

ps: With it having been Easter Weekend and many on vacation in many countries I am waiting a few days to make sure the data is on track before posting any more data.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11629 on: April 07, 2021, 01:33:08 AM »

I feel that you are being too pessimistic.  It is neither genocide nor economic collapse.  A death toll of 0.02% is hardly genocide

Millions of unnecessary deaths. What do you call that? An accident?
The solution was obvious from the beginning and yet, they failed to implement it.

If you , in your line of work, act so stupidly that it leads to somebody dying, that is called negligent homicide.  If millions die because of the stupid way you do your job (and as an added bonus you create a huge recession) I don't know what that should be called.

Anyway, we can argue about nomenclature but it is sure as hell that our "leaders" did an extremely shitty job. As a minimum all of them should be rid of their political power

Do you really believe that anyone (healthcare, governmental, or otherwise) truly knew what the solution was back in the beginning?  Information was changing on a nearly daily basis that the U.N., CDC, and other agencies were scrambling to inform the medical profession and general public as to proper procedures.  The death toll is approaching 3 million.  Do you really believe that almost all of those were preventable?  The flu has killed half a million annually for decades, are we responsible for their deaths also? 

As far as nomenclature goes, your "huge recession" is certainly way off base.  IMO, the world could have closed down completely to minimize the death toll from the virus, but the economic consequences would've been so severe that future generations would've said we acted stupidly.

Yes, people knew enough about Covid back then to understand that it required action, and certainly enough to know it would be disruptive.
Trump is recorded saying Covid is bad, then ignored it.
New Zealand new it was bad, the politicians and health experts had a discussion about whether it was worth going for eradication. The experts recommended it, even though they thought it would be a long shot, then applied the processes required for eradication, and it essentially worked. Yes, islands have advantages, but the actions they took worked.
UK, an island about the same size as New Zealand so has equal opportunity to stop it, basically did nothing and they got into a mess. You could say the same thing about Ireland.

China understood the problem well enough to isolate entire cities in January.

So, in short, there was enough information in January to know Covid was worth stopping.
From mid Feb onwards, nobody can play the "the wasn't enough info" card.

And if short, sharp actions had be done, less people would be dead, economies (which is still a surprising common reason for not shutting down for short periods) would be better off now, and the situation would be better in total.

As for economies having recovered, maybe. Recessions might be over for now, but the standard of living is still at the bottom even if it is moving up. Although the wealthy have had a bumper year with the handout from tax payer money. How long will the artificial ups and increases last though?

Covid is only getting started because the response was substandard. Variants are becoming concerning, the economies of the world are not in as good a shape as they want us to believe. Anytime I see asset bubbles, I keep thinking about popping sounds.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11630 on: April 07, 2021, 02:41:05 AM »

Yes, people knew enough about Covid back then to understand that it required action, and certainly enough to know it would be disruptive.
Trump is recorded saying Covid is bad, then ignored it.
New Zealand new it was bad, the politicians and health experts had a discussion about whether it was worth going for eradication. The experts recommended it, even though they thought it would be a long shot, then applied the processes required for eradication, and it essentially worked. Yes, islands have advantages, but the actions they took worked.
UK, an island about the same size as New Zealand so has equal opportunity to stop it, basically did nothing and they got into a mess. You could say the same thing about Ireland.

China understood the problem well enough to isolate entire cities in January.

So, in short, there was enough information in January to know Covid was worth stopping.
From mid Feb onwards, nobody can play the "the wasn't enough info" card.

And if short, sharp actions had be done, less people would be dead, economies (which is still a surprising common reason for not shutting down for short periods) would be better off now, and the situation would be better in total.

As for economies having recovered, maybe. Recessions might be over for now, but the standard of living is still at the bottom even if it is moving up. Although the wealthy have had a bumper year with the handout from tax payer money. How long will the artificial ups and increases last though?

Covid is only getting started because the response was substandard. Variants are becoming concerning, the economies of the world are not in as good a shape as they want us to believe. Anytime I see asset bubbles, I keep thinking about popping sounds.

China is an exception, because its government can do whatever it wants, and the people must fall in line or face the consequences. 

I am not arguing that China-like actions would not have stemmed the death toll from the virus.   Rather, that it was not feasible everywhere else.  Most countries tried to weigh short-term consequences (virus cases and death) against long-term consequences of shutting down the economy (poverty, misery, and death). 

Comparing the U.K. and New Zealand, cases in the U.K. started rising exponentially on March 4, but did not start rising in New Zealand until March 20.  New Zealand had a two-week warning to prepare.  On March 4, New Zealand had 3 cases. 

I also am not arguing that the wealthy did much better than the poor, although I would not call it a bumper year (the wealthy did not receive stimulus checks).  The lockdowns negatively affected the poor much more than the wealthy, who could work remotely and still receive their salary, pay their rent, and purchase items from Amazon.  The substantial increase in home values (largely due to working remotely) tended to favor the wealthy also.  This looks to be more of a long-term situation than a bubble, as remote work appears to be here to stay.  Funny how the liberals in the U.S. advocated for policies that benefitted the wealthy, while the conservatives advocated for those that benefitted the poor.  Crazy world in which we live.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11631 on: April 07, 2021, 03:14:43 AM »
Same IFR as a flu:
"Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations."
European Journal of Clinical Investigation - 23rd March 2021.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/

And flus kill more young people than covid-19.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 03:24:01 AM by Thomas Barlow »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11632 on: April 07, 2021, 11:16:46 AM »
Quote
Do you really believe that anyone (healthcare, governmental, or otherwise) truly knew what the solution was back in the beginning? 


You should read this thread from the beginning. We knew exactly how to stop this a year ago, just like we knew 10 year ago.

Distancing, handwashing, masks. Testing, contact tracing and vaccines.

It was the choice of Trump and his murderous allies to try to go for things like "herd immunity". It was Trump and his murderous allies exhorting people to live their lives while ignoring the virus. It was their stupidity evil that created a mind fuck around mask-wearing. Trump sabotaged testing, sabotaged masking, sabotaged distancing


But Trump happened. Helped by an army of liars on the internet, ready to deceive others at the cost of their lives, for the shits and giggles.


Quote
Do you really believe that almost all of those were preventable?


Almost all of those 3 million deaths could've been prevented. Clowns like you must create the false narrative that the loss of life was inevitable so you can live with your own dirty conscious.

The real virus here was misinformation carried by people like you.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11633 on: April 07, 2021, 11:27:46 AM »
well said , Archimid .. it is absurd that we were better informed here 14 months ago than almost anyone in power anywhere in the world months later . This thread should be available to anyone prosecuting those powers for incompetence , manslaughter or mass murder for it's accurate time line of available information that could have been acted upon . Many thanks to you and your fellow compilers of truth in the face of fools , liars and deniers .
                                         be cause . 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11634 on: April 07, 2021, 01:38:08 PM »
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-2-31-march-2021

Current round of modelling advice to the government. Summary paper plus papers on each of three models (Imperial, Warwick and LSHTM)

i) There are going to be lots of infections when restrictions are removed. There are just too many children for transmission to stay suppressed, whatever assumptions are made about adult vaccination.
ii) Most of the people that end up in hospital will have been fully vaccinated, and until there's more data on how much difference the second jab makes, the plausible range is enormous and still includes a risk that the exit wave is worse than the first wave.
iii) Regions which have been most successful at controlling spread via NPIs are also the regions most at risk of having their hospitals overrun in an exit wave.

I think they are too pessimistic on vaccine performance, and the age structure of who gets infected. There'll be lots of infections in schools, but the models don't allow outbreaks to be contained within schools because the vaccines are assumed to have relatively low effectiveness against transmission so I think they are substantially overestimating the fraction of the over 50s that will be exposed during an exit wave.

And then there's B.1.351 (and other escape variants). Even if AZ turns out to provide good protection against severe disease, its protection against transmission of B.1.351 is going to be rubbish.


...
https://coviddatareview.wordpress.com/2021/04/04/covid-vaccines-from-pfizer-moderna-jj-novavax-code-for-a-stabilised-spike-why-did-they-stabilise-the-spike-and-have-oxford-az-made-a-mistake-by-not-stabilising-the-spi/

COVID vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, J&J & Novavax code for a “Stabilised Spike”. Why did they stabilise the Spike and have Oxford AZ made a mistake by not stabilising the Spike?

Nice blog on the biochemistry of what is different about the AZ vaccine.

The spike on the coronavirus has two jobs to do, and it changes shape in order to do them. First it has to attach to a cell, and it sticks out in order to do this, and then it has to get the rest of the virus into the cell its attached to, and it folds up in order to bring them into closer contact.

The other companies have modified the spike used in their vaccines so it can't fold, and so are only vaccinating against the shape it has on the free floating virus (because if the virus can't attach due to being covered with antibodies its game over). AZ haven't modified the spike, so are vaccinating against both shapes (because if a cell gets infected the bent spike left on the cell surface is a signal that its been taken over by the virus, and if a variant on the straight spike evades immunity, the bent spike signal might still give protection against severe disease).

Its this second string to the AZ vaccine that is being relied on by those hoping it protects against severe disease in B.1.351, despite the free floating virus substantially evading neutralisation.


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11635 on: April 07, 2021, 02:24:40 PM »
No real change from yesterday in the U.S. Seven day rolling average for new cases continues to hover around 65K. Seven day rolling average for daily deaths continues to decline.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11636 on: April 07, 2021, 02:34:48 PM »
United States Data

Flu

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

COVID

Cases: 31,560,438
Deaths: 570,260

At no point over the last decade has the U.S. taken any extraordinary measures to combat the flu although 45% of Americans get a flu vaccine each year. Despite extraordinary, although inconsistent and therefore inadequate measures taken with COVID, deaths are perhaps 15 times that of the typical flu season.

My conclusion: This is not just like the flu.

« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 02:40:58 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11637 on: April 07, 2021, 03:45:44 PM »
So over a million NEW seniors in USA in 2017, then about one and a half million more seniors in 2018, and over 1.6 million more seniors added in 2019, didn't have any effect on the 0.6 million people who died of covid-19?
13,787,044 more over-65 year-olds since the year 2010, had no effect?

There are a total of more than 50 million people over 65 in the USA (34.2% more than 10 years ago), that's over a million new seniors every year (1.6 million more in 2019 alone). And the over-100, over-90, over-80 age-groups every year growing relative to the seniors' growth, had no relationship to the 0.6 million who died of covid-19 so far?
By those rates of growth, there's going to be 100s of 1000s of over-90 year-olds added every single year to the population.

"The U.S. Census Bureau today (June 25, 2020) released estimates showing the nation’s 65-and-older population has grown rapidly since 2010, driven by the aging of Baby Boomers born between 1946 and 1964. The 65-and-older population grew by over a third (34.2% or 13,787,044) during the past decade, and by 3.2% (1,688,924) from 2018 to 2019. The growth of this population contributed to an increase in the national median age from 37.2 years in 2010 to 38.4 in 2019, according to the Census Bureau’s 2019 Population Estimates."
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/65-older-population-grows.html

49.5 million people over-65 in the USA in 2017.
"Over the past 10 years, the population age 65 and over increased from 37.2 million in 2006 to 49.2 million"
https://acl.gov/sites/default/files/Aging%20and%20Disability%20in%20America/2017OlderAmericansProfile.pdf

And now more published science, posted on the US gov. NIH website, is stating a worldwide infection fatality rate of about the same as a bad flu year. About 0.15% infection fatality rate. Published in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 03:57:55 PM by Thomas Barlow »
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11638 on: April 07, 2021, 03:52:42 PM »
Same IFR as a flu:
"Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations."
European Journal of Clinical Investigation - 23rd March 2021.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/

And flus kill more young people than covid-19.

Nice cherry-pick in only mentioning young people.

ANYHOW..... did you read the article about the Brazil varient killing more young people than the original?
One wonders how much longer young people will have it "easy".

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11639 on: April 07, 2021, 04:06:41 PM »

Yes, people knew enough about Covid back then to understand that it required action, and certainly enough to know it would be disruptive.
Trump is recorded saying Covid is bad, then ignored it.
New Zealand new it was bad, the politicians and health experts had a discussion about whether it was worth going for eradication. The experts recommended it, even though they thought it would be a long shot, then applied the processes required for eradication, and it essentially worked. Yes, islands have advantages, but the actions they took worked.
UK, an island about the same size as New Zealand so has equal opportunity to stop it, basically did nothing and they got into a mess. You could say the same thing about Ireland.

China understood the problem well enough to isolate entire cities in January.

So, in short, there was enough information in January to know Covid was worth stopping.
From mid Feb onwards, nobody can play the "the wasn't enough info" card.

And if short, sharp actions had be done, less people would be dead, economies (which is still a surprising common reason for not shutting down for short periods) would be better off now, and the situation would be better in total.

As for economies having recovered, maybe. Recessions might be over for now, but the standard of living is still at the bottom even if it is moving up. Although the wealthy have had a bumper year with the handout from tax payer money. How long will the artificial ups and increases last though?

Covid is only getting started because the response was substandard. Variants are becoming concerning, the economies of the world are not in as good a shape as they want us to believe. Anytime I see asset bubbles, I keep thinking about popping sounds.

China is an exception, because its government can do whatever it wants, and the people must fall in line or face the consequences. 

I am not arguing that China-like actions would not have stemmed the death toll from the virus.   Rather, that it was not feasible everywhere else.  Most countries tried to weigh short-term consequences (virus cases and death) against long-term consequences of shutting down the economy (poverty, misery, and death). 

Comparing the U.K. and New Zealand, cases in the U.K. started rising exponentially on March 4, but did not start rising in New Zealand until March 20.  New Zealand had a two-week warning to prepare.  On March 4, New Zealand had 3 cases. 

I also am not arguing that the wealthy did much better than the poor, although I would not call it a bumper year (the wealthy did not receive stimulus checks).  The lockdowns negatively affected the poor much more than the wealthy, who could work remotely and still receive their salary, pay their rent, and purchase items from Amazon.  The substantial increase in home values (largely due to working remotely) tended to favor the wealthy also.  This looks to be more of a long-term situation than a bubble, as remote work appears to be here to stay.  Funny how the liberals in the U.S. advocated for policies that benefitted the wealthy, while the conservatives advocated for those that benefitted the poor.  Crazy world in which we live.

And there we go with the exceptions.
China was extreme.... they tried hard to prevent it escaping as well only to be let down by Europe and the USA.
New Zealand and Australia got rid of it as well, nowhere near as extreme as China, still worked. Other countries followed their own science based decision making and they controlled it.

The UK..... well, NZ had the same info as the UK regardless of when the exponential growth started. You would think that having the same information and acting on said information would have been a good idea back in February.
One would have thought that when the UK had an earlier sharp increase that they would have taken action earlier as well.
But they didn't, they let it do its thing in spite of all the information we had on what it was doing in China and how Covid was dangerous enough to take action.

But instead, you keep coming up exceptions for success, luck, islands are lucky (UK is an island, didn't take action, still got screwed over), one country had it bad before the other blah blah blah.

It never stops.

Honestly, if this forum knew what was coming, if I could figure it out in late January, surely the experts knew and advice govts of the same thing.

Also.... why would wealthy people get stimulus checks when their share of total wealth in 2020 went up while the rest got less per person?
And why do people from the US keep ranting on about the political sides?
The science is quite clear on how to combat this, what needed to be done was clear from January. Who gives a rats ass which party had power, the actions for success would be the same regardless.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11640 on: April 07, 2021, 04:17:22 PM »
Same IFR as a flu:
"Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries, and locations."
European Journal of Clinical Investigation - 23rd March 2021.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33768536/

And flus kill more young people than covid-19.

Nice cherry-pick in only mentioning young people.

ANYHOW..... did you read the article about the Brazil varient killing more young people than the original?
One wonders how much longer young people will have it "easy".

Brazil is currently experiencing about 2 deaths per-day per 100,000 population.
Mostly in very poor, squalid, highly polluted, high-density areas, toxins in air, water, food...all affecting health by their impact on the population over years.
Brazil adds about 500,000 to the total over-65 population every single year (ie. about 1.5 million since January 2018 alone), and has a total of about 32 million people over-65.

"The Brazilian population has remained on an ageing trend recently, having grown by 4.8 million elderly persons since 2012, thus surpassing the 2017 figure, 30.2 million..."
https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/21005-elderly-population-increases-18-in-5-years-and-surpasses-30-million-in-2017#:~:text=The%20Brazilian%20population%20has%20remained,released%20today%20by%20the%20IBGE.

Brazil has about 338,000 covid-19 deaths so far.
 
The new variants won't change that number much.
Parsing out the difference in those figures of deaths of young people from the original virus (all cases-not just the small number of hospitalizations), compared to the new variant, will be scientifically near impossible.

When the article on Brazil you mentioned says "hospitalised people in their 20s were three times more likely to die", that means 3 times more people, of the very small number of young people (relative to total infections & total population of young people) who are hospitalised, will die. A tiny figure, that will be impossible to measure statistically against total cases in young people (recorded & unrecorded) It will be statistically insignificant in the 338,000 who died of covid-19, and in vast number of young people in Brazil. A blip.

There is about 1 covid-19 death of under 40-year-olds, per 2 million population per day in Brazil right now.
There are 36 million people in their 20s in Brazil. There are 4,400,000 deaths in Brazil every year - all causes, 500,000 of them are under 25 years old.
<340,000 covid-19 deaths so far - all ages.


https://knoema.com/atlas/Brazil/topics/Demographics/Mortality/Number-of-deaths

"Older people still make up the vast majority of Brazil’s Covid-19 deaths"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/03/26/more-young-people-are-dying-of-covid-in-brazil-heres-why/?sh=28279d757b3e

PS. It's not "cherry-picking" to compare the very well established fact that by far the most deaths are among the elderly (and a tiny % of the elderly), and less than 1 in 1,000 deaths per recorded cases for under 50 year-olds (as I posted before, the science published in Nature from last year). And much tinier (negligible) percent of under 50s. when applied to total population of under 50s in any country, no matter what the policy. These are well-known facts. The new variant in Brazil does not change those ratios.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 06:14:33 PM by Thomas Barlow »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11641 on: April 07, 2021, 05:13:41 PM »
South Korea never fully shut down their economy. Bars and restaurants stayed open but at reduced capacity. They did this by testing, contact tracing and quarantining. South Koreans also wore masks whenever in public.

South Korea

Cases: 106,898
Deaths: 1,756

South Korea had the same information about COVID as the U.S. The difference is they acted on it.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11642 on: April 07, 2021, 06:01:33 PM »
South Korea is a small country with an educated public, with a tight social structure, and accountability.  South Korea has a central government that is competent, funded, and well trained. 

South Korea is better compared to a 1st world nation, like Portugal, or Belgium.

The US is more comparable to a country like Brazil. 
« Last Edit: April 07, 2021, 06:08:37 PM by harpy »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11643 on: April 07, 2021, 06:46:29 PM »
South Korea is a small country with an educated public, with a tight social structure, and accountability.  South Korea has a central government that is competent, funded, and well trained. 

South Korea is better compared to a 1st world nation, like Portugal, or Belgium.

The US is more comparable to a country like Brazil.

Agreed. Both the US and Brazil were also led by buffoons who ignored the advice of experts as the pandemic spread.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11644 on: April 07, 2021, 08:01:27 PM »
South Korea is a small country with an educated public, with a tight social structure, and accountability.  South Korea has a central government that is competent, funded, and well trained. 

South Korea is better compared to a 1st world nation, like Portugal, or Belgium.

The US is more comparable to a country like Brazil.
Until Bolsonaro screwed up just about everything Brazil had developed a universal health system that was the envy of most other countries in the region - certainly a far better universal health safety net than exists in the USA.

But Bolsonaro has given us yet more proof (though none was needed) that it is far easier to destroy than create.

https://www.internationalinsurance.com/health/systems/brazil.php
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11645 on: April 07, 2021, 08:15:56 PM »
Just for the sake of accuracy, South Korea has a population of over 50M and is perhaps comparable to Spain but not to Belgium or Portugal.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11646 on: April 07, 2021, 08:18:04 PM »
Over the past two months, these are the increases in total covid cases in selected regions (per worldometer):

Cambodia - 518%
Uruguay   - 171%
Jamaica    - 139%
Estonia     - 131%
Barbados  - 116%
Bermuda  -  116%
Hungary   -   84%
Greece     -   73%
Finland     -   68%
Paraguay  -   62%
Bulgaria    -   62%
Poland      -   59%
Norway    -   55%
Serbia      -   54%
Philippines -  52%
Czechia    -   50%
Lativa      -   46%
France     -   45%
Malaysia  -    44%
Ukraine   -    43%
Sweden   -    43%
Iraq        -    42%
Turkey    -    41%
Italy       -    40%
Kuwait    -    39%
Brazil      -    37%
Kenya     -    37%
Madagascar  34%
Peru       -    34%
Iran       -     34%
Austria   -     33%
Indonesia -   33%
South Korea  32%
Netherlands  31%
Vietnam   -   29%
Thailand   -   27%
Germany  -   27%
Pakistan   -   26%
Canada     -  26%
Ireland     -   24%
Argentina  -  22%
Japan       -   21%
Egypt       -   21%
Israel       -   20%
Croatia     -   20%
Lithuania  -   19%
India        -   18%
Mexico     -   17%
Denmark  -   16%
Russia      -   16%
Colombia  -   14%
Switzerland   14%
U.S.A.      -   14%
Taiwan     -   13%
Spain       -   11%
U.K.         -   10%
New Zealand  9%
Panama    -    9%
Hong Kong -   8%
Zimbabwe  -   7%
Portugal     -   7%
Saudi Arabia   6%
South Africa   5%
Iceland     -    4%
Australia   -    2%
Singapore -    1%
Macao      -     0%

Many of these areas did not experience a large outbreak until recently.  Others have seen a resurgence.  Comparing South Korea to Belgium is interesting as their per capita deaths tolls were on opposite ends.  Belgium was 2.0 per thousand, while South Korea was 0.03.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11647 on: April 07, 2021, 10:22:29 PM »
Covid deaths reach 4,000 a day in Brazil, bringing hospitals to breaking point
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56657818

Brazil has registered 4,195 COVID-19 deaths on Tuesday, which is the highest death toll in a single day, according to figures released by its health ministry. As per John Hopkins University data, the South American nation has now recorded 332,752 deaths, and is second only to the United States toll of over 555,000 deaths.

 Some 66,570 people died with Covid-19 in March, more than double the previous monthly record

... “If Brazil keeps the current pace, the country will probably reach 5,000 daily deaths in April,” said Christovam Barcellos, a researcher at Fiocruz.



A Bloomberg report, citing government data, states that from March 1-27 - 2,030 Brazilians in the 30-39 age group died from COVID-19 — double the number of deaths in January. The number of deaths among those in their 40s was 4,150 fatalities during the same period, compared to 1,823 in January.

Older people still make up the majority of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths. However, the number of younger Brazilians succumbing to the virus has gone up. In March, 6 percent of deaths in Brazil were of those under the age of 40, versus less than 5 percent in February.

State health officials in São Paulo, Brazil's most populous state, said that 60 percent of younger patients with COVID-19 needed ICU beds, a higher figure than earlier in the pandemic.

https://portal.fiocruz.br/sites/portal.fiocruz.br/files/documentos/boletim_extraordinario_2021-abril-06-red_2.pdf

A bulletin issued by the Brazilian medical research institution Fiocruz on Tuesday said that the lethality of coronavirus has more than doubled to 4.2% from around 2% at the end of 2020. Fiocruz attributes the increased death rate to the inability to quickly and correctly diagnose serious cases of COVID-19 and to overloaded hospitals. It warns of the "collapse of the health care system."

... Brazil has been through four health ministers since the pandemic began, slowing planning efforts, with some Brazilians travelling to countries such as Uruguay to get vaccinated. Authorities in Sao Paulo, Brazil's biggest city, have emptied old graves to make room amid soaring death tolls.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil/sao-paulo-exhumes-old-graves-to-make-space-for-surging-covid-19-burials-idUSKBN2BO6KP

Bolsanaro speaking to supporters outside the presidential residence on Tuesday, criticised quarantine measures and suggested without evidence that they were linked to obesity and depression. He did not comment on the 4,195 deaths recorded in the previous 24 hours.



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Brazil COVID-19 Deaths On Track to Pass Worst of U.S. Wave
https://mobile.reuters.com/news/picture/brazil-covid-19-deaths-on-track-to-pass-idUSRTXB9W7I
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11648 on: April 07, 2021, 10:40:35 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This post does not wish to understate the terrible state Brazil is in - especially with the British Medical Journal warning of the possible impact of the Brazil variant on increased infectivity, increased severity of infection and possible increased vulnerability of the young.

BUT, the 4,000+ daily death toll headline needs a bit of caution. Brazil is a highly religious country. Staffing levels everywhere would be at minimum. Over the Easter weekend recorded daily new cases and deaths were well below trend. The 4,000 + deaths were perhaps inflated by catching up on record keeping.

The data also shows that there were some signs of reducing new cases and a small drop in daily deaths. I was going to wait a few days for things to settle down after Easter for a longer look before posting the data, but with too much attention on the headlines made me change my mind.

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #11649 on: April 07, 2021, 10:45:57 PM »
Time will tell...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late