COVID-19

[El Cid]

Fortunately, most people in this thread seemed to agree that compulsory vaccination is going too far. At least morally (it's also unpragmatic). I was very happy about that.

In most countries, most children are compulsorily vaccinated by at least 8-10 vaccines for the benefit of the whole society. Before vaccinations, 50% of children did not live to 18! So there is nothing morally wrong about compulsory vaccination - on the contrary, it is morally wrong to object compulsory vaccination.

The only reason to object is that these new mRNA vaccines have no long term track record. Fortunately, the Chinese produce old school vaccines (the sort that's been in use for 150+ years). So anyone who does not like mRNA vaccines should get the Chinese attenuated virus vaccines. That is the solution to the problem.

[Andre Koelewijn]

One interesting example of how this might work is Staphorst. A newspaper article from december 8th. Suddenly corona is gone in Staphorst. Are air filters the wonder method?

Gone? Really?

No, unfortunately. Look at the graph: after a very high peak, people got cautious and the number of cases declined. Current numbers are still at a considerable level.

[zufall]

Fortunately, most people in this thread seemed to agree that compulsory vaccination is going too far. At least morally (it's also unpragmatic). I was very happy about that.

In most countries, most children are compulsorily vaccinated by at least 8-10 vaccines for the benefit of the whole society. Before vaccinations, 50% of children did not live to 18! So there is nothing morally wrong about compulsory vaccination - on the contrary, it is morally wrong to object compulsory vaccination.

The only reason to object is that these new mRNA vaccines have no long term track record. Fortunately, the Chinese produce old school vaccines (the sort that's been in use for 150+ years). So anyone who does not like mRNA vaccines should get the Chinese attenuated virus vaccines. That is the solution to the problem.

Yes, but here comes the hypocrisy of (most) EU politicians, who all agree that vaccination is the most important thing except for geopolitics and market share.

In Germany, currently all but one vaccinations are "only" recommended. The only compulsory vaccination is the one against measles. That has been introduced in 2020, but was in the making before the COVID pandemic. The given reasons are:

- heavy disease for children, even more so for adults, so every outbreak places a high strain on hospitals
- disease also hits those who can't protect themselves, especially infants < 1y who can't be vaccinated
- very transmissible, herd immunity is only reached at >95%
- immunity through vaccination is considered for-life
- infection probability when exposed to the virus: unvaccinated 100%, vaccinated 5%

Even with these compelling reasons, measles vaccination is not completely mandatory, but only for all children and for people working in certain institutions, and there are some exceptions.

A compulsory COVID vaccination would be different in several ways:

- heavy disease rare for children, less so for adults
- immunity against infection wanes within months
- new variants with immune escape occur much more often
- most (to my knowledge) vaccines (somewhat) more likely to lead to heavy side effects for children and young adults than for older people

Every child, if e.g. starting at 3, would have to be vaccinated 15 or even 30 times until adulthood, "only" not to get infected and then infect others who could then end up in hospital. But infection would still possible even with vaccination, though less probable, even more so since the speed with which new variants now occur is so high - while the possible side effects would be, though not probable, less exceptional than for adults.

So in my view, a compulsory vaccination for children is not appropriate at this time. It's another thing with adults over a certain age (40+, 50+, 60+?). That can be defended morally, although even then the practical considerations remain (for which I'm still not sure whether it's appropriate at all). And of course the matter of sanctions - with measles, there are administative fines, which is the maximum I'd ever support.

This is only my current thinking; I'm not quite sure about the whole question and am still open for new developments and arguments, which could lead me to change my opinion. I also don't have expertise in medicine.

[Neven]

We have all kinds of mandates in Germany. E.g. car seat belts, child measles vaccination, mandatory clothes wearing in public, etc. The Kingdom of Bavaria introduced compulsory pox vaccination in 1807 (sic) and that was kept until eradication of the disease. Oh slippery slopes...

Ah yes, and there were smartphones and QR codes back in the day as well. And the vaccinations were made by companies whose primary goal was profit maximisation.

Wonderful analogy, but you still didn't answer my question: How would you feel if the German government would punish your mother in some way because her BMI was deemed too high, and she would have to show her papers or QR code in shops and everywhere she needed to go? Or she would simply be shut out of (parts) of society? How would you feel about that?

Because that's what they're planning to do to my 17 year-old daughter (who climbed your tree 10 years ago). And even if she does pay the fine of thousands of Euros, I wonder if her basketball club will allow her to come back, whether she will be part of the team again. Because she showed me some of the discussions in her Whatsapp group, and those young women are scared shitless.

Huge damage has been done to young people. Enormous. Nobody cares, because the media tell them what to care about.

Your "solutions" have been discussed and found not working.

They've never been discussed or even tried. Only technocratic measures that make politicians look forceful are an option, especially if they're good for Big Pharma.

P.S.: Oh slippery slopes... Some folks here in Barvaria are getting seriously psychotic, caught in a vicious circle of denial from the very beginning, which their narcissism prohibits to escape. Luckily they didn't get violent yet, try as I may with ridicule...

But stupid East Germans are meanwhile reenacting Nazi style mobs with torches, and discuss assassinating politicians on Telegram. We have cases of murder already. https://www.volksverpetzer.de/aufklarer/querdenken-terror-kretschmer/

Here is the real evil kind of anti-science propaganda that leads to nothing good.

Which is another reason policies based on fear propaganda backfire. The media now focuses on 0.2% of the people against vaccine mandations, and just a little spark is enough for the state to exert its monopoly on violence. That will then be another step in the wrong direction. And there will be more, as long as the mass psychosis doesn't wane.

[Neven]

From Swiss Policy Research:

The Power of Natural Immunity



A new Israeli study confirms the superiority of natural covid immunity.

Data from Israel and some other countries has shown since August that infection-acquired immunity offers much stronger protection against coronavirus re-infection than vaccine-induced immunity. A new Israeli preprint study by Yair Goldberg et al. confirms this result and offers new insights.

As the chart above shows, at 4 to 8 months, the risk of infection after recovery is about seven times lower than after double vaccination. Moreover, while vaccine protection decreases to zero after about six months, natural immunity remains quite high even beyond 12 months.

The study also confirms that vaccination after recovery (turquoise bars in the chart above) offers no significant benefit: even at 6-8 months, the confidence intervals still overlap. In particular, vaccinating young recovered people (e.g. children, students or athletes) is clearly contraindicated: it adds major vaccine-related health risks, such as myocarditis, without any medical benefit.

(...)

The results by Goldberg et al. once again confirm the inappropriateness of “vaccine passports” and vaccine mandates. Nevertheless, for people at high risk of severe covid, vaccines offered significant protection against infection and severe disease for about half a year. Booster shots could prolong this protection, but they have become much less effective against the immune evasive Omicron variant.

Thus, people at high risk of severe covid require updated vaccines and/or state-of-the-art early treatment options. Ultimately, the coronavirus pandemic will be ended not by vaccines, but by widespread natural immunity, although vaccines may, in the best case, mitigate initial infections. A rational pandemic response should take these facts into account.

[Richard Rathbone]

The preprint is worth reading. It isn't as well controlled as its authors would have liked, because the unvaccinated in Israel are not at all representative of the total population. Its also not as well controlled as I would have liked to have seen, because they have not considered the effect of age on waning, and if its as significant as other effects seen with COVID and age, their analysis could have been completely confounded by it.

The SPR article is misinformation. Its trying to sneak the opinion of SPR that its better to die from COVID than get vaccinated past its readers.

[oren]

SPR have been at this misinformation from the very beginning, regardless of any data that was or wasn't available.

[Shared Humanity]

Furthermore because vaccinated people may be carrying the virus but are not symptomatic due to the vaccine suppressing the symptoms, they are a greater risk to public health as their symptoms are masked, whereas unvaccinated people show symptoms when they are sick and can isolate.

Which is why, of course, I wear an N95 mask when in public buildings despite having received my booster and why the State of Illinois requires masks regardless of vaccination status.

Also, since the vaccinated clear the virus quicker, they are contagious for a shorter period of time.

[Shared Humanity]

One interesting example of how this might work is Staphorst. A newspaper article from december 8th. Suddenly corona is gone in Staphorst. Are air filters the wonder method?

Gone? Really?

No, unfortunately. Look at the graph: after a very high peak, people got cautious and the number of cases declined. Current numbers are still at a considerable level.

Thank you for the data.

[Neven]

The SPR article is misinformation. Its trying to sneak the opinion of SPR that its better to die from COVID than get vaccinated past its readers.

That's your opinion, based on your interpretation.

It says very clearly at the end of the article what the authors at SPR think, maybe your conditioned knee-jerk reaction prevented you from reading it:

The results by Goldberg et al. once again confirm the inappropriateness of “vaccine passports” and vaccine mandates. Nevertheless, for people at high risk of severe covid, vaccines offered significant protection against infection and severe disease for about half a year. Booster shots could prolong this protection, but they have become much less effective against the immune evasive Omicron variant.

Thus, people at high risk of severe covid require updated vaccines and/or state-of-the-art early treatment options. Ultimately, the coronavirus pandemic will be ended not by vaccines, but by widespread natural immunity, although vaccines may, in the best case, mitigate initial infections. A rational pandemic response should take these facts into account.

It's just one study, but there are more. Common sense would also dictate that natural immunity is superior to mRNA prophylactic medication.

The science says: No scientific grounds for vaccination mandates.
Morality says: You can't cause rifts in society by forcing a medical intervention on people, especially not for a disease of this kind.
Experience says: Vaccination mandates are counterproductive because they give a false sense of security, and the efficacy of the 'vaccines' wanes extremely fast.

But boomers, governments and the media still want the whole world to be jabbed twice a year, forever. In perfect alignment with Big Pharma.

Next thing we know, people will start advocating for Exxon Mobile, BP and Shell to solve AGW through nuclear energy emergency expansion, sequestration schemes and geoengineering. Just like Bayer is going to feed the world with healthy GMO and pesticides. And then our minds will be uploaded to the Metaverse by Facebook and Google.

I can't wait to be rid of my pesky body! I'll be just like God! F**k you, Nature!

[Shared Humanity]

30% of Americans are opposed to vaccines and masks. Efforts by the government to require vaccines and masks have triggered violence and death threats across the country. Employees  have been killed trying to enforce them. Politicians have been forced to hire protection for themselves and their families. Heavily armed, far right militias have taken to protesting in the streets in large numbers.

There are those here who argue the damage to the social fabric caused by mandates far outweighs the benefits. We certainly see evidence of social unrest although I might argue we are actually seeing already existing fractures surface.

One thing is clear in the U.S. Both the 70% who support policies designed to reduce transmission and the 30% who oppose such measures are desperate for a return to normalcy. So, in order to prevent any further damage to the social fabric and to speed the return to normalcy, let's decide to eliminate all vaccine and mask mandates. While guidance, based on the science, is still provided, Americans are free to choose whether they and their children will be vaccinated or wear masks. Schools, businesses, restaurants, bars, theaters, all places where the public gathers, are now allowed to remain open. (This is already the case but I wanted to emphasize this point.) No one can be removed from their job because they refuse to be vaccinated. All Americans can finally do what they so desperately want to do, get back to living their lives as they had prepandemic.

Likely changes in behavior?

The 30% would immediately cease wearing masks and would most certainly not get vaccinated.

A large portion of the vaccinated would also cease to wear masks as they have resented these mandates. They also have correctly assessed their risk of getting infected, far less likely of being hospitalized and dying.

Life would begin to return to normal, with vaccinated and the unvaccinated free to live their lives and public buildings would be occupied by a mix of both, generally in the ratios that are present in the population.

The vaccinated would now get infected in far larger numbers due to the high percentage of breakthrough infections but still much lower than the unvaccinated due to continued mask wearing by many and the protection provided by the vaccine. As they have viral loads as high as the unvaccinated, they will spread the virus just as quickly as the unvaccinated.  Some will be hospitalized but most will be asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms. As the majority begin to realize they are no longer at risk of serious illness, they will be far less concerned about infection and far more comfortable occupying crowded public spaces. As the vaccinated get infected, they will be far better protected from future illness, having both the vaccinations and illness strengthening their immune responses.

The unvaccinated will get infected in far larger numbers and many of them will get extremely ill, hospitalized and die. In the U.S. 90% or more of the hospitalized are unvaccinated. Those who die are almost all unvaccinated. As the unvaccinated get infected, those who recover will also have strengthened their immune response to future infections, perhaps less than the vaccinated but still protected.

It is beginning to look like logical consequences to me. We all make choices in life. Some people refuse to wear seatbelts. Others drink heavily and drive. Tens of millions of American households have numerous unsecured guns in their homes. (70% of all gun deaths are accidental shootings or suicides.) While these behaviors can put others at risk, the majority of risk is borne by those who make such choices. With regard to the virus, the people making the risky choices will be the ones most likely to be hospitalized, die and suffer the long term effects of serious illness.

Maybe the vaccinated and mask wearers simply need to reconcile ourselves to this. We cannot expect to protect others from the results of choices they make.

There is also the evolutionary advantage of increasing the intelligence of the American population, difficult to quantify but a useful side benefit. If genetics contributes to risky behavior, as a society we would become more risk adverse. Not sure that is a gain.

[Tor Bejnar]

From previous page:

... This shows that individuals may benefit personally from vaccination but do not confer a benefit to society as they can efficiently spread infections.

Therefore there is no rationale for vaccine mandates.

Furthermore because vaccinated people may be carrying the virus but are not symptomatic due to the vaccine suppressing the symptoms, they are a greater risk to public health as their symptoms are masked, whereas unvaccinated people show symptoms when they are sick and can isolate.

1st paragraph response:  I thought recent vaccination decreased the duration of infectiousness and decreased the probability of a hospital stay.  These both benefit society, don't they?

2nd paragraph response:  If there is a benefit for society, isn't there a rationale for a mandate (whether you consider the benefit compelling or not)?

3rd paragraph response:  Some places (we hear about Illinois, USA) require indoor masking, vaccinated or not, so lax behavior is somewhat dealt with.  I thought most cases of the original COVID-19 were asystematic in unvaccinated people (which was everybody at the time), at least during the early stages of infection.  I presume this is/was also true with Alpha, Delta and Omicron. (I don't recall reading, recently, about this detail, concerning unvaccinated individuals.)  If this continues to be true, then lax behavior is a problem caused by every infected person, not just infected vaccinated individuals. 

As the science is developed, some responses to COVID will be found to have been 'unhelpful'.  It is hard on the masses when guidance changes, but, as the saying goes, Shit Happens.  It's hard on (political) administrators too, and some cannot deal with "changing knowns", and so hold on to previous conclusions which are no longer relevant; this also creates a problem for the masses.  To whom should the people listen?

Which is why I've signed many e-mails with "Stay safe and have a life."  Wear your mask, keep your distance, minimize indoor time with others, and don't fall for anybody's fear mongering.

[kassy]

One interesting example of how this might work is Staphorst. A newspaper article from december 8th. Suddenly corona is gone in Staphorst. Are air filters the wonder method?

Gone? Really?

No, unfortunately. Look at the graph: after a very high peak, people got cautious and the number of cases declined. Current numbers are still at a considerable level.

The numbers were strictly from a cluster of schools so a subset of that. The community transmission levels should follow later. Maybe check those numbers again in a week or so? (hopefully they should follow but nice we have the data to check if it actually works).

[nadir]

This israeli study is everywhere in mainstream outlets:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/12/israeli-study-finds-pfizer-covid-booster-protects-against-omicron-variant.html

Number of participants in the study: 40

I still didn’t have the booster and I’m not sure I should, at all. I am protected against worst outcomes and have the feeling that omicron (which will be everywhere in January) escapes the vaccine almost completely. If they want to show the benefits in order to sell more doses they should do it with the same super-high medical and scientific standards that were demanded to proving Ivermectin efficacy.

[Florifulgurator]

We have all kinds of mandates in Germany. E.g. car seat belts, child measles vaccination, mandatory clothes wearing in public, etc. The Kingdom of Bavaria introduced compulsory pox vaccination in 1807 (sic) and that was kept until eradication of the disease. Oh slippery slopes...

Ah yes, and there were smartphones and QR codes back in the day as well.

The equivalent made of paper and handwritten ink was used back then. (I don't even have a stupid smartphone, but still use a handy little cell phone. So I got a plastic card with QR.)

Wonderful analogy, but you still didn't answer my question: How would you feel if the German government would punish your mother in some way because her BMI was deemed too high, and she would have to show her papers or QR code in shops and everywhere she needed to go? Or she would simply be shut out of (parts) of society? How would you feel about that?

Your question is evasive hypothetical nonsense. (As I explained her BMI is not her fault, so no reasonable state or public health authority would want to "punish" her.)

Because that's what they're planning to do to my 17 year-old daughter (who climbed your tree 10 years ago). And even if she does pay the fine of thousands of Euros, I wonder if her basketball club will allow her to come back, whether she will be part of the team again. Because she showed me some of the discussions in her Whatsapp group, and those young women are scared shitless.

I remember that well. Alas I seem to have lost the painting she gave me. An impressively smart and alert girl she was. Now she seems to have some intellectual-emotional problems, and you seem of no help. She will grow out of that, and only grow stronger.

Anyway, I would introduce mandatory vaccination for 18+ year olds only, and only provisionally. (Becoming endemic, Covid will become a classical childhood illness.) There are more than enough youngsters who are eager to get voluntarily vaxxed. But yes, this introduces another cause for the bickering and bullying that is so widespread at schools.

Also I would not fine 1000s of Euros. Sounds like a typical scare story invented by the refuseniks. Just like it was with the mask scare, where children have less problems than certain wannabe grownups, who project their narcissist paranoia on innocent children.

Huge damage has been done to young people. Enormous. Nobody cares, because the media tell them what to care about.

Here in Germany the burden schoolchildren have to bear is widely discussed and noticed naturally. It is the antivaxxers who now force them to endure more. To use this for denialist propaganda is child abuse in my humble opinion. (Like it was with anti mask propaganda, where e.g. Dr. Schwindelambulanz invented child death due to masks.)

[Shared Humanity]

This israeli study is everywhere in mainstream outlets:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/12/israeli-study-finds-pfizer-covid-booster-protects-against-omicron-variant.html

Number of participants in the study: 40

I still didn’t have the booster and I’m not sure I should, at all. I am protected against worst outcomes and have the feeling that omicron (which will be everywhere in January) escapes the vaccine almost completely. If they want to show the benefits in order to sell more doses they should do it with the same super-high medical and scientific standards that were demanded to proving Ivermectin efficacy.

We need a couple of months and a few million cases and the answers will be available to both questions, the efficacy of vaccines and the relative seriousness of this variant. Answers to other questions will also be readily available. Studies will continue to come out until then where the numbers are low. These studies have some value. What the media does with them is beyond the control of the researchers.

I do not have much faith in the media acting responsibly or reporting accurately. There is little evidence to suggest they will. Being first with a story is paramount.

[Richard Rathbone]

The SPR article is misinformation. Its trying to sneak the opinion of SPR that its better to die from COVID than get vaccinated past its readers.

That's your opinion, based on your interpretation.

It says very clearly at the end of the article what the authors at SPR think, maybe your conditioned knee-jerk reaction prevented you from reading it:

The results by Goldberg et al. once again confirm the inappropriateness of “vaccine passports” and vaccine mandates. Nevertheless, for people at high risk of severe covid, vaccines offered significant protection against infection and severe disease for about half a year. Booster shots could prolong this protection, but they have become much less effective against the immune evasive Omicron variant.

Thus, people at high risk of severe covid require updated vaccines and/or state-of-the-art early treatment options. Ultimately, the coronavirus pandemic will be ended not by vaccines, but by widespread natural immunity, although vaccines may, in the best case, mitigate initial infections. A rational pandemic response should take these facts into account.

It's just one study, but there are more. Common sense would also dictate that natural immunity is superior to mRNA prophylactic medication.

The preprint does nothing of the kind. It doesn't address the appropriateness of vaccination at all. SPR is misrepresenting it to support their own views on vaccination. Just as you are misrepresenting vaccination.

Reference one. This preprint may have its conclusions completely the wrong way round, but remains interesting because its novel.

Common sense would dictate that capitalists prefer 1 customer to die from COVID rather than 500 protecting themselves in ways that lead to them spending their money on someone else's products.

Everyone is at risk of severe COVID. Everyone is also at risk because the burden of COVID is making treating other disease much harder. Even for children the direct risk from COVID is much greater than the risk from vaccination.

Western societies are fairly tolerant of people doing things that only harm themselves, but less so where they harm others. The burden of COVID is large enough that failure to vaccinate causes significant harm to others as well as being liable to result in significant harm to the individual. An honest article would address these points rather than pretending that a modest effect from an unrepresentative study is decisive.

I think there is a case that could be made to deny hospital treatment to those that have refused vaccination. Its quite possible that the way triage is being applied in the UK hospitals at the moment is causing a lot more harm to those with non-COVID disease than it is avoiding harm from those with COVID. However, our traditional priority means that treating one COVID case who would otherwise suffocate to death inside 6 hours takes priority over treating 20 cancers which might become inoperable in the weeks during which their operations are delayed. These are tough choices that doctors all over the country have been having to make for the past 4 months already in the UK. It does not strike me as outrageous if any country seeks to avoid putting its doctors and patients in that sort of situation by fining those that refuse vaccination or restricting their liberties.

"Natural" immunity is fine for those that survive, but not everyone does, and saving some of those that opted for "natural" immunity results in severe harm and death to others that are unable to access treatment as a result.

"Give me liberty and give you death" is what SPR is promoting. Its a moral choice between individual freedom and the consequence of that freedom on other people. Should I be free to burn coal? Should I be free to smoke in public? Should I have to pay double by way of insurance or tax or fines in order to maintain access to healthcare if unvaccinated for COVID? These are collective value judgements that are hard to make and SPR are treading the well trodden path from tobacco and climate into COVID of misrepresenting the science to make the harms look a lot less certain or consequential in order to preserve a BAU that suits them.

[aperson]

The SPR article is misinformation. Its trying to sneak the opinion of SPR that its better to die from COVID than get vaccinated past its readers.

That's your opinion, based on your interpretation.

It says very clearly at the end of the article what the authors at SPR think, maybe your conditioned knee-jerk reaction prevented you from reading it:

The results by Goldberg et al. once again confirm the inappropriateness of “vaccine passports” and vaccine mandates. Nevertheless, for people at high risk of severe covid, vaccines offered significant protection against infection and severe disease for about half a year. Booster shots could prolong this protection, but they have become much less effective against the immune evasive Omicron variant.

Thus, people at high risk of severe covid require updated vaccines and/or state-of-the-art early treatment options. Ultimately, the coronavirus pandemic will be ended not by vaccines, but by widespread natural immunity, although vaccines may, in the best case, mitigate initial infections. A rational pandemic response should take these facts into account.

It's just one study, but there are more. Common sense would also dictate that natural immunity is superior to mRNA prophylactic medication.

The science says: No scientific grounds for vaccination mandates.
Morality says: You can't cause rifts in society by forcing a medical intervention on people, especially not for a disease of this kind.
Experience says: Vaccination mandates are counterproductive because they give a false sense of security, and the efficacy of the 'vaccines' wanes extremely fast.

But boomers, governments and the media still want the whole world to be jabbed twice a year, forever. In perfect alignment with Big Pharma.

Next thing we know, people will start advocating for Exxon Mobile, BP and Shell to solve AGW through nuclear energy emergency expansion, sequestration schemes and geoengineering. Just like Bayer is going to feed the world with healthy GMO and pesticides. And then our minds will be uploaded to the Metaverse by Facebook and Google.

I can't wait to be rid of my pesky body! I'll be just like God! F**k you, Nature!

Natural immunity for all other common cold coronaviruses wanes after a few years because the structure of the viruses changes enough to escape neutralization. Do you expect SARS-CoV-2 to somehow be different, or are you ready to infect yourself every few years? Go ahead, get busy with your natural immunity. It is very good, but it does come with a cost.

[kassy]

I see no good alternative.

Hmmm, might as well give up on the whole climate change thing.

The world defeated by the inability to forego restaurants and the tragedy of missed football practice even when the evidence of the harm is right in front of them.  And you want people to care about something 10 to 100 years out?

While i am a huge fan of editing quotes you forgot the part where i stated that vaccines have been available to all for months.

The people that did not take them for a whole variety of reasons are probably not going to take them next week either. Or next month. Should we not play soccer or eat in restaurants (both of which are not a point infection) because of them? In reality no one voted to make vaccines mandatory or for 2G. And there is no pause button for reality so what measure would you propose next?

Do give a better working alternative.

Climate change is different. Many people still don´t see the problem and keep consuming.
They are still happy with our destructive life style because the damage is elsewhere , they still think politicians will sort it out if it is important. In the real world politicians give their buddies nice rates on mask or testing contracts.

The two problems are not the same because climate change gets a lot worse over time while covid at some point will disappear just as any historic disease.

[aperson]

The libertarian fantasy: COVID isn't that bad. It becomes mild. Natural immunity will protect you. You can go about your normal life being a good consumer.

The liberal fantasy: All you have to do is take a vaccine and you can go about your normal life being a good consumer.

Reality: A rapidly evolving bat coronavirus is outrunning us to the point that the full array of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions is failing to slow down outbreak waves and endless positive selective pressure. We can either eradicate it now or find out what its full escape profile is like as we force it to walk its mutation space as fast as it is willing.

If you want to give this virus fewer chances to mutate into something even worse (do you want to find out if ORF6:Q56E gets selected for once we're fully reliant on T-cell immunity?), then you need to avoid exposure events and wear an n95 or better mask if you must go to a risky place. If you want to lower your chance of severe disease, get a vaccine.

There is no other model than the Swiss Cheese model; pointing to any magic bullet, be it vaccines, natural immunity, masks, or something else, just shows that you're a fool repeating some power broker's agenda as a thought terminating cliche.


Attachment Source: https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1434033705312415747

[aperson]

The two problems are not the same because climate change gets a lot worse over time while covid at some point will disappear just as any historic disease.

Interesting claim, can you tell me when the historic disease gonorrhea disappeared?

This sounds like more of the optimistic folly in the same vein of "viruses become less lethal over time."

[aperson]

Should we not play soccer or eat in restaurants (both of which are not a point infection) because of them?

This is dangerous misinformation. I expected better on this site.

[Richard Rathbone]

https://twitter.com/PaulBieniasz/status/1470041857249923077

Another interesting lab neutralisation study. This one compares Wuhan and omicron with an artificial spike that was designed to evade immunity and looks at how the capacity to neutralise varies with time after infection/vaccination as well as between vaccination and infection.

Both infection derived and 2xPf derived neutralising ability are very substantially evaded by omicron. They are also both very substantially boosted by an additional Pf jab.

Omicron behaves pretty similarly to the artificial spike, which might imply omicron is about as bad as a variant can get for evading the original vaccines.

There appears to be much less waning of 2*Pf against omicron than against Wuhan. The residual ability to neutralise omicron is pretty low, but it appears to have been pretty low to start with and not got worse over time. Also while waning against Wuhan is greater for 2*Pf than infection, its similar if not the other way round for omicron. Its also pretty close to the detection limit for this lab so I wouldn't rely on it if someone uses a more sensitive assay and finds a different effect.

A booster Pf jab provides a bigger boost to infection derived neutralisation (154x) than it does to 2*Pf derived neutralisation (38x). It seems a pretty common finding that there is a substantial bonus from different exposures rather than the same one every time. So far there hasn't been much testing of AZ to boost 2*Pf, but if I'd been offered the opportunity to trial it, I'd have taken it.

tl;dr another study that reinforces the benefit of a booster before getting exposed to omicron, whether or not you have been previously infected.

Even Boris seems to have got this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59631570
Covid: New booster target as Johnson declares Omicron 'emergency'

Booster jabs will be offered to everyone over 18 in England from this week, the PM has announced, as he declared an "Omicron emergency".

"No one should be in any doubt, there is a tidal wave of Omicron coming," Boris Johnson said in a TV statement on Sunday evening.

The target to vaccinate all adults by the end of January will be brought forward by a month, he said.

He said some medical appointments may be postponed to focus on boosters.

Mr Johnson gave his Covid update on Sunday evening - just hours after the UK's Covid alert level was raised to four due to the spread of new Omicron virus variant.

[The Walrus]

The two problems are not the same because climate change gets a lot worse over time while covid at some point will disappear just as any historic disease.

Interesting claim, can you tell me when the historic disease gonorrhea disappeared?

This sounds like more of the optimistic folly in the same vein of "viruses become less lethal over time."

Not to mention pessimism on the initial end.

[neal]

Climate change is different. Many people still don´t see the problem and keep consuming.
They are still happy with our destructive life style because the damage is elsewhere , they still think politicians will sort it out if it is important. In the real world politicians give their buddies nice rates on mask or testing contracts.

Can't you see....Covid is different. Many people still don´t see the problem and keep on as normal.
They are still happy with their life style because the damage is elsewhere, they still think politicians will sort it out if it is important. In the real world politicians give their buddies nice greenwashing contracts.

Spooky, eh?

They're both situations where individual actions have major effects on others.

[neal]

Boris Johnson speech to the UK tonight...the great advocate for "letting it burn" is giving you a warning...hmmm, what could that mean???

But I need to speak to you this evening, because I am afraid we are now facing an emergency in our battle with the new variant, Omicron, and we must urgently reinforce our wall of vaccine protection to keep our friends and loved ones safe.

Earlier today, the UK’s four Chief Medical Officers raised the Covid Alert level to 4, its second highest level, because of the evidence that Omicron is doubling here in the UK every two to three days.

We know from bitter experience how these exponential curves develop.

No-one should be in any doubt: there is a tidal wave of Omicron coming, and I’m afraid it is now clear that two doses of vaccine are simply not enough to give the level of protection we all need.

But the good news is that our scientists are confident that with a third dose - a booster dose – we can all bring our level of protection back up.

And I know there will be some people watching who will be asking whether Omicron is less severe than previous variants, and whether we really need to go out and get that booster.

And the answer is yes we do.

Do not make the mistake of thinking Omicron can’t hurt you; can’t make you and your loved ones seriously ill.

We’ve already seen hospitalisations doubling in a week in South Africa.

And we have patients with Omicron in hospital here in the UK right now.

At this point our scientists cannot say that Omicron is less severe, and even if that proved to be true, we already know it is so much more transmissible, that a wave of Omicron through a population that was not boosted would risk a level of hospitalisation that could overwhelm our NHS and lead sadly to very many deaths.

So we must act now.

[Zythryn]

30% of Americans are opposed to vaccines and masks. Efforts by the government to require vaccines and masks have triggered violence and death threats across the country. Employees  have been killed trying to enforce them. Politicians have been forced to hire protection for themselves and their families. Heavily armed, far right militias have taken to protesting in the streets in large numbers.

There are those here who argue the damage to the social fabric caused by mandates far outweighs the benefits. We certainly see evidence of social unrest although I might argue we are actually seeing already existing fractures surface.
…

The already existing fractures were on the surface before the vaccine mandates.
All the things you described were present with just the simple requests to wear masks.

If not being vaccinated only put the individual at risk, I would oppose mandates.
Lack of vaccinations are killing people who are older, younger and at risk.  A very good friend of mine just lost a coworker who couldn’t be vaccinated.  Most likely he died, because someone who could, chose not to.

[nadir]

Cases and deaths in UK and South Africa.
A large increase in cases in the UK during the last few weeks has no delayed response of an increase of number of deaths (granted that there is a “basal” level of COVID deaths but at least not an increase… yet).

[crandles]

South Africa cases were declining from 1018 Oct 7 to 277 Nov 13


Numbers then started increasing reaching 892 on Nov 20 then Nov 24 reached 1275 and after that has been above 2000 per day.

Deaths have been pretty flat. There is a low period from Nov 16 to Nov 23 which could be randomly low or maybe that would have continued without omicron. So it is possible to interpret that as anything from no trend to a doubling due omicron.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Nov 25 to Dec 6 is only 11 days and that is a bit soon to reach conclusions, but it perhaps hints that the IFR of omicron is either lower or there is a longer delay before severe effects than with other variants. Need more data, but possibly beginning to look hopeful?

All waves start out looking hopeful. Its a consequence of the epidemic quadrupling as cases develop from mild to serious and quadrupling again as they go from serious to fatal. Plus it looks like the initial superspreading in SA was in students/schools, so there'll be even more lag due to spread across generations.

Maybe in a couple of weeks it'll be possible to judge from the S African data, but it took until mid Jan-21 to get the first assessment of alpha's severity and that emerged slightly earlier in the UK in 2020 than omicron did in SA in 2021. Monitoring is better now, but it will have to be a lot milder for it to be clear its milder before Xmas.

I think there is now enough omicron in the UK to start to judge vaccine effectiveness. Maybe there will be some initial results on effectiveness against infection in this week's technical report. Add two weeks for effectiveness against hospitalisation, and against transmission, and another two for effectiveness against death.

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1464873706874937346

Severity will be one of the last things its possible to judge.

Getting the lag right is definitely very important to any analysis and yes age distribution could make the lag longer this time.

https://science.thewire.in/health/south-africa-early-data-suggests-omicron-is-more-transmissible-less-severe/



Hospitalisations beginning to rise but not yet deaths.

The lags don't look very long at the peaks but do look like they are longer at beginning of the waves.
So probably still not enough lag time to get hopeful that it is mild from this.

OTOH:

It is also possible to understand the severity of illness better by monitoring trends and outcomes among hospitalised patients.
...
The early findings suggest less severe COVID-19 infections, though they should be correlated with clinical pictures and monitored closely over the next few weeks to better understand the clinical manifestations and outcomes related to the omicron variant.

[TeaPotty]

1) Deaths always lag hospitalizations, which also lag cases.
Every wave, all the hopium addicts forget this.

2) Omicron Wave Sees South Africa’s Weekly Excess Deaths Almost Double
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/s-african-weekly-excess-deaths-almost-double-amid-omicron-wave

South African excess deaths, a measure of mortality above a historical average, almost doubled in the week ending Nov. 28 from the preceding seven-day period as a new coronavirus variant spread across the country.

During the period 2,076 more people died than would normally be expected, the South African Medical Research Council said in a report on Wednesday. That compares with 1,091 the week earlier.

This is South Africa. Healthcare is not accessible to many.
Even a PCR test cost $70 (yesterday there was finally a price reduction)

[Neven]

I know it's all about the Omicron right now, but is there room for a little meme in here?

[vox_mundi]

[Richard Rathbone]

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1470072217534926858

Update for 12th Dec. 1239 new cases reported today, slightly above trend line. The slope of that line *still* suggests that cases are doubling every 1.7 days.

Or maybe, as someone suggested, we should say UK omicron cases are doubling every 40 hours. That concentrates the mind.

First omicron death in UK reported today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59639007

At least one person in the UK has died with the Omicron coronavirus variant, the prime minister has said.

834 delta deaths were reported last week. Its 7 doublings or 12 days from 1 death/day to that level. Its 3 doublings, or 5 days, from that level to the worst death rates seen in the UK in previous waves.

Lag from 1/death per day to 1000/deaths per day: 17 days.
Lag from infection to death: 21 days.

The first death is highly likely to be on a shorter than average lag. However, omicron infection is doubling so fast that it can go from 1 death/day to record levels too fast to stop by reacting to the death rate.

...

What do people that went hungry and people that starved to death have in common?

Neither were fully fed.

It might be too late to book a vaccination, but there's still time to get a bit extra into your local food bank.

[harpy]

Should we not play soccer or eat in restaurants (both of which are not a point infection) because of them?

This is dangerous misinformation. I expected better on this site.

If we were a rational society.  Knowing that omicron bypasses vaccines.  Now would probably be the time to lock down the global economy again.  No excuses.  Everyone stay home.  Full lock down with masks on for essential workers. 

Since we have absolutely no idea what's going to happen.  Rather than experimenting with the public.  Which we seem to take great pleasure in doing.  Play it safe, and learn more before we open up again.

[Neven]

Sorry for disturbing you in your new-found hype. I've seen it all before, so I'll let you play. Be back in a few weeks.

One more meme, just for fun:

[aperson]

ok grandpa, if you think those memes are funny it might be time to send you off to the assisted living center. my trump-enchanted relatives that share minion memes and bible quotes all day have better meme game than this.

[Shared Humanity]

In a thread like this, some levity can be useful.

[Shared Humanity]

If we were a rational society.  Knowing that omicron bypasses vaccines.  Now would probably be the time to lock down the global economy again.  No excuses.  Everyone stay home.  Full lock down with masks on for essential workers. 

Lockdowns are not needed to control the pandemic. Lockdowns are needed when nations fail to do what is needed to control the pandemic.

So what is needed?

Wear a mask when in public spaces.

Practice social distancing.

Get vaccinated.

Get a booster.

Get tested when exposed or feeling ill.

When positive, inform those who have been exposed to you.

Quarantine when ill.

This is not difficult. It simply requires a little personal discipline.

[Shared Humanity]

So how is that control group faring?

The unvaccinated are now five times more likely to get infected, ten times more likely to be hospitalized and thirteen times more likely to die.

These charts can be found on the CDC website.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/reporting-vaccinations.html

[Shared Humanity]

Does practicing the discipline needed to control the pandemic involve personal sacrifice and hardship? Yes.

My extended family has a many decades long tradition of getting together in a private room at a restaurant to celebrate Christmas. We all look forward to it. This one event is the only time we all get to see each other as we live all over the country. We had the event yesterday at 3pm.

Early yesterday morning, my wife received a text from work telling her that one of her clients had tested positive for COVID. Nadia works in a senior care facility and is in close contact with clients for hours. I called several family members to let them know we would be unable to attend.

I got a rapid test this morning which came back negative as did Nadia's. We are both waiting for the results of our pcr tests

[kassy]

The two problems are not the same because climate change gets a lot worse over time while covid at some point will disappear just as any historic disease.

Interesting claim, can you tell me when the historic disease gonorrhea disappeared?

This sounds like more of the optimistic folly in the same vein of "viruses become less lethal over time."

Well the H1N1 pandemic went away, the other 2 flu pandemics went away. All these changed to normal seasonal variants. There are many other cold type viruses that were once new and then might have been nastier but they are all normal now.

So yes the claim is worded too broadly. Viral pandemics of a zoonotic origin which cause some respiratory disease do go away or become a mere nuisance over time.

Historical data shows pandemics with deaths and then they are gone while variants still circulate this alone is proof that they become less lethal. This is also a function of those viruses adapting to their new hosts (us).

Should we not play soccer or eat in restaurants (both of which are not a point infection) because of them?

This is dangerous misinformation. I expected better on this site.

These are examples from the Netherlands. We know from contract tracing that the number of cases from restaurants are very small.

For clarity the soccer i discussed is amateur soccer. Just teams practicing. These are always in the evening because during the day the kids go to school and the adults work. It is one team running and kicking a bit. The kids are in school all day which is probably riskier then doing a bit of running outdoors and then some shooting at the goal. There is zero reason not to practice those outdoor things. It is a lot healthier then just sitting around.

[nadir]

If we were a rational society.  Knowing that omicron bypasses vaccines.  Now would probably be the time to lock down the global economy again.  No excuses.  Everyone stay home.  Full lock down with masks on for essential workers. 

Lockdowns are not needed to control the pandemic. Lockdowns are needed when nations fail to do what is needed to control the pandemic.

So what is needed?

Wear a mask when in public spaces.

Practice social distancing.

Get vaccinated.

Get a booster.

Get tested when exposed or feeling ill.

When positive, inform those who have been exposed to you.

Quarantine when ill.

This is not difficult. It simply requires a little personal discipline.

Almost fully agree. Not sure about the booster(s) though in the current crossroads.

[nadir]

https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1470072217534926858

Update for 12th Dec. 1239 new cases reported today, slightly above trend line. The slope of that line *still* suggests that cases are doubling every 1.7 days.

Or maybe, as someone suggested, we should say UK omicron cases are doubling every 40 hours. That concentrates the mind.

First omicron death in UK reported today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59639007

At least one person in the UK has died with the Omicron coronavirus variant, the prime minister has said.

While this was to be expected (even a bad cold can kill you given the circumstances and omicron is probably not just a cold… yet) a sad side of this story is that many powerful individuals are yelling YAY!!! to this news.

[neal]

While this was to be expected (even a bad cold can kill you given the circumstances and omicron is probably not just a cold… yet) a sad side of this story is that many powerful individuals are yelling YAY!!! to this news.

...many powerful individuals are yelling YAY!!! to this news....

Can you provide us with names of powerful individuals that you suspect are celebrating?

[WildFit]

While this was to be expected (even a bad cold can kill you given the circumstances and omicron is probably not just a cold… yet) a sad side of this story is that many powerful individuals are yelling YAY!!! to this news.

...many powerful individuals are yelling YAY!!! to this news....

Can you provide us with names of powerful individuals that you suspect are celebrating?

Naive question.

BTW to aks for proof for things that can currently not be proven is a common strategy and has always been. It means nothing at all that one cannot name the guys who certainly won't do on TV or else publicly and of course it was not meant THAT way.

[Bruce Steele]

SH, Sorry you missed your holiday meal. We have been trying to time our family get togethers with the low end of each wave. Thanksgiving has always spread things around and Christmas seems timed to expand on whatever showed up during Thanksgiving. So summer and outdoors pleases me anyhow.
Tradition can be postponed for a few years.
 I hope your family fares well through all this and as usual discretion is the better part of valor.

[Shared Humanity]

SH, Sorry you missed your holiday meal. We have been trying to time our family get togethers with the low end of each wave. Thanksgiving has always spread things around and Christmas seems timed to expand on whatever showed up during Thanksgiving. So summer and outdoors pleases me anyhow.
Tradition can be postponed for a few years.
 I hope your family fares well through all this and as usual discretion is the better part of valor.

The decision not to attend was an easy one. This is the world we live in. No sense arguing with reality.

[neal]

Naive question.

BTW to aks for proof for things that can currently not be proven is a common strategy and has always been. It means nothing at all that one cannot name the guys who certainly won't do on TV or else publicly and of course it was not meant THAT way.

....can currently not be proven....

OK, I get it--it's a double extra secret actual fact only known to few cognoscenti of the cabals, but I'm sure we should all believe it.

That's what a science-based discussion is all about, after all.

[nadir]

While this was to be expected (even a bad cold can kill you given the circumstances and omicron is probably not just a cold… yet) a sad side of this story is that many powerful individuals are yelling YAY!!! to this news.

...many powerful individuals are yelling YAY!!! to this news....

Can you provide us with names of powerful individuals that you suspect are celebrating?

Yeah sure look here is one.

[oren]

Obviously what the powerful want is the quickest return to BAU and unfettered consumption. This virus is the worst thing that happened to these types.
However, IMHO this discussion is outside the scope of this thread.