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Which will occur first.  a perenially ice-free arctic or a global 1 meter sea-level rise?

1 meter sea-level rise will be first by more than 10 years
7 (13.7%)
1 meter sea-level rise will be first by 2-10 years
3 (5.9%)
About the same time
0 (0%)
1 meter sea-level rise will follow by 2-10 years
7 (13.7%)
1 meter sea-level rise will follow by more than 10 years
34 (66.7%)

Total Members Voted: 48

Author Topic: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice  (Read 273202 times)

ivica

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #350 on: July 20, 2013, 11:01:21 PM »
Quote
So you are already assuming that the Arctic sea ice will be gone much earlier than most experts predict, and that those who don't predict this are probably wrong.

Steven, we (the forum) had some polls  before (I see you joined us in June), like this one:
IF the Arctic Sea Ice disappears this year 2013 (say under 1 mkm), will it surprise you ?

Also, I think we had a poll about what members think when we will see Arctic with less than 1 MKM^2 of ice...

Quote
That's not sure.
Of course, no absolutes here, I do not even know will I wake up next morning. ;D

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #351 on: July 20, 2013, 11:51:54 PM »
ccg, first of all I was considering that paragraph about "preaching" in your yesterday's post #343 as a personal attack against me (maybe wrongly?).

It certainly wasn't intended as such, and I apologise if it came across as such - another poster said things that I found rather hostile and insulting, and there is no good reason I should've let any of my sentiment from that bleed through (my usual relatively confrontational style of discussion notwithstanding).

Of course I'm not saying that anyone should passively consume information from the latest summary reports.  To a certain extent we are all trying to build our own theories based on our own (necessarily incomplete) impression of the literature.  The only caveat is that such personal theories have a very low weight compared to the collective assessment made by a large group of experts.

I understand my own (and other) views are low weight compared to large groups of experts - especially once one eliminates any biases involved in the sources (and there is almost always some bias in a source, however well intentioned they are).

You were also referring a lot to blogger McPherson recently (although with some caveats).  What he is saying about mainstream scientists, at various places, sounds extremely pejorative to me.  He seems to be saying, more or less, that many mainstream scientists prefer their own interests above telling the truth about the seriousness of climate change.  Some of your comments gave me the impression (maybe wrongly) that you had the same feeling about that.

If this is just a misunderstanding, then let's forget about it. 

I think it's mostly misunderstanding - I certainly don't care much to hear too strong statements against scientists and science, who I think do sterling work and are our best bet for advancing our understanding (generally as well as with climate change). Sometimes I do express negative sentiments against specific scientists (or more usually scientific bodies such as the Met Office or IPCC), and sometimes that's arguably a little unfair of me. In my defence I also sometimes hear actual scientists (which I am not) expressing negative (sometimes slanderous, but sometimes that I agree with) sentiments against other scientists and aforementioned scientific bodies. The scientific community is not a single homogenous whole but rather a writhing mass of competing ideas and interests, some of them in conflict with each other at any given time.

Anyway, I think really this is a storm in a teacup - I just wanted to be sure I wasn't appearing to be anti-science. I am not a bible thumping flat earth creationist, and while the science may not be giving us perfect answers - it's the best thing we have.

So you are already assuming that the Arctic sea ice will be gone much earlier than most experts predict, and that those who don't predict this are probably wrong.  That's not sure.  2012 (and maybe more of the post 2007 years) might be anomalously low compared to the long term trend.  The data from 2013 are not suggesting a new record this year, although it is too early to tell.  It is possible that we are seeing new negative feedbacks this year, which will allow the Arctic sea ice to get some "recovery" and to last longer than some are expecting.

Yes, you are quite correct - I am assuming this. I personally expect to see virtually total ice loss for at least one day in the summer between 2014 and 2016. I appreciate there may still be surprises and I might be wrong in this view - and I'm open to arguments as to why events will go otherwise. I'm very skeptical about recovery per se - but if there are processes (such as early fracturing) that could put a floor (or at least a brake) under ice volume loss before total disappearance - I could see scope to push back the first year in which total loss occurs.

Yes, you are giving a lot of weight to the most pessimistic outlooks.  Personally I don't see a reason for doing that.  Time will tell.

For me the reasons are mostly philosophical - I prefer pleasant surprises (ice lasts longer) than unpleasant surprises (ice gone long before expectations). I believe in preparing for the (plausible!) worst and hoping for the best. That last point does have a few practical implications in that I wish policy makers would use more caution when interpreting what the scientists say.

It seems generally safer to me to risk acting too much and too soon with respect to climate change, than acting too little and too late (which is where I think things are right now).

So far, I believe a pessimistic outlook is somewhat vindicated by the rate at which events have moved in recent years - but of course we can't extrapolate to the future on that basis (perhaps things will settle down within manageable bounds once the Arctic approaches a new equilibrium - only time will tell, as you say).

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #352 on: July 21, 2013, 12:19:45 PM »
I appreciate the recent comments from many of you that have helped to "clear the air" after the heated discussions the other day.  We all must remember that no two of us come from identical backgrounds, be it education or experience, therefore we all have a different perspective on what is happening.  When Steven mentioned that he was Dutch and then Ivica mentioned he was from Croatia it brought to mind that not every member of this forum is a native English speaking person.  With all of this diversity we should remember that it is very easy for individual statements to be misunderstood.  I've found over the years that it is more helpful to ask for clarification than it is to accuse someone of being deceptive.

This is a learning journey for all of us and the road ahead will be difficult. 

No one knows with certainty how much, if any, ice will be remaining in the Arctic in 10, 20 or 30 years.  Neither do they know exactly what this will do to weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere.  Then we come to the human factors of how different  countries and cultures will react to the many rapid changes they are confronted with.

That being said, thanks again for the many clarifying and supportive comments.  Let's get back to a lively and informative discussion!!
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wili

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #353 on: July 21, 2013, 04:37:43 PM »
Well put, OLN. I appreciated the discussion, too.

Here's a piece relevant to the issue of evaluating what scientists present to the public, and what kind of pressures they are under in some areas now (thanks to SkepticalScience for the link):

http://desmog.ca/2013/07/07/Kevin-Anderson-scientists-cajoled-delivering-politically-palatable-messages-climate

Scientists are Cajoled into Developing...Politically Palatable Messages" on Climate

Quote
The reality about the greenhouse gas emissions cuts needed to avoid dangerous global warming is obscured in UK government scenarios...

The most important measurements, of total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, are pushed into the background – and scientists are pressured to tailor their arguments to fit “politically palatable” scenarios...

"What we’re doing repeatedly is fudging the numbers to fit within acceptable norms – our analysis must not raise fundamental and uncomfortable question...

So in 2013 we are left with an increasing recognition of the radical nature of the problem – but a willingness only to consider piecemeal incrementalism as the solution. Anyone daring to highlight the disjuncture continues to be marginalised."

(My emphasis. The article is mostly an interview with Kevin Anderson.)

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #354 on: July 23, 2013, 05:30:32 AM »
Sup, I don't know if you're still following this thread, but here's another major climate scientist, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (founding Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), talking about 9% reduction in global GDP per year if we wait till 2020 to for global emissions to peak. And that is to just possibly keep below 2 degrees C.

Start at about minute 40, but the actual data is given just after minute 41 (of course the whole thing is pretty good, especially when he gets into tipping points after about minute 30):



ETA: Ah, I see from his bio on wiki that he was the guy who really developed the idea of tipping points. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Joachim_Schellnhuber
« Last Edit: July 23, 2013, 01:51:28 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

HubertKeller

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #355 on: August 09, 2013, 01:04:57 PM »


While this chart may be purely hypothetical, the events depicted are not!  I have chosen to use the loss of arctic sea ice on the x-axis, because we know the stages of decline.  We also know that Arctic Amplification is going to continue to play havoc with the climate, leading to severe droughts, extreme heatwaves and more violent storms. I've also included stages of Sea level rise (SLR) on the x-axis because the loss of the arctic sea ice will lead to accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS).  What we don't know is when in the future these events will be occurring, although, the best minds on Neven's blog seem to believe that we will see an ice-free September as early as 2016.  I arbitrarily placed a 1 meter SLR after a perrennially ice free arctic, however comments/opinions on that are welcome.

The global impact of Climate Change is already taking a toll on infrastructure and society.  This toll will only worsen unless CO2 emissions are drastically reduced or other mitigation efforts prove successful.

We Have Choices

While many of the events depicted on this chart are already unavoidable, humanity has within it's power to change the slope of the curves.  While I'm not always as optimistic about a rapid transition to renewable energy as my good friend Bob Wallace is, I'm also not as doomerish as those who believe that we are unavoidably heading towards a mass extinction event.

I welcome any thoughts/comments about the timeline of led lights and/or the societal impacts of unfettered Climate Change.


It is dangerous situation and strict action must be taken at  global level..
« Last Edit: August 10, 2013, 06:42:10 PM by HubertKeller »

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #356 on: August 09, 2013, 03:07:07 PM »

It is dangerous situation and strict action must be taken at  global level..

Hubert,

Welcome to the Forum.  You are correct that action must be taken at a global level.  We've had any number of discussions about what it is going to wake up the general population to demand action from their political leaders.

Sadly, the more I learn about how rapidly AGW/CC is already having serious impacts across the world the more concerned I am that any actions that are likely to be taken will be too little, too late.

There is another impact that we don't often talk about although it is becoming more evident to me on a daily basis.  I'm beginning to notice that there is a sense of despair and depression that is growing within the community of people that follow the science and are aware of the potential impacts of unfettered AGW/CC.  We as a community of concerned citizens must make every effort not to lose hope and not let ourselves become overly distraught, no matter how dire the future looks.
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Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #357 on: August 10, 2013, 04:30:27 AM »
OLN, how shall we do that? Myself I can't see how there will be the global agreement needed?
Still living in the bush in eastern Ontario. Gave up on growing annual veggies. Too much drought.

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #358 on: August 10, 2013, 08:22:56 AM »
OLN, how shall we do that? Myself I can't see how there will be the global agreement needed?

Speaking only personally, but my answer is to treat collapse and climate change as inevitable outcomes and attempt to determine strategies that relate to those. As such, I don't place hope or expectation upon the rest of the species to come to any grand global agreement or to change the existing patterns of behaviour driving us all off the cliff.

It may lack the moral flavour of trying to "save" the (human) world, but it beats despair and depression, as OLN put it.

In any case, if everyone predicates their actions and efforts on vague hopes of an increasingly improbable outcome in terms of global agreement and massive rapid sociological change in humanity - and this doesn't happen - then nobody would have put any effort at all into solutions addressing collapse and failure. That would then be a recipe for an even bigger and more definitive failure for our species.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #359 on: August 13, 2013, 06:11:24 PM »
Feds Declare Fishery Disaster For Florida Oyster Industry

Eastpoint, Fla.(AP Photo/Phil Coale)

Quote
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Nearly a year after the state first asked for help, federal officials are declaring a fishery disaster for Florida's oyster industry in the Gulf of Mexico.

The collapse of the oyster industry last year came after a drought reduced freshwater flowing into Apalachicola Bay. But state officials have also blamed the lack of freshwater flow due to increased consumption in Georgia.

Full AP article, posted today in the Huffington Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/12/florida-oyster-industry-disaster_n_3745905.html

I thought I'd bring this thread back to some of the more local impacts due in part to AGW/CC, not that I want discourage discourse on the more dramatic and long range impacts.

Apalachicola, Florida is the home to Florida's largest oyster fleet and apparently has suffered a serious collapse in the oyster industry this year.  I've been previously told that this area is responsible for about 90% of Florida's oyster harvest.  While the article doesn't mention climate change, the impact of AGW/CC is obvious to me.  The reduction of freshwater into the Apalachicola river was due to last year's drought in the Southeast of the US, which is one of the many impacts of climate change.  The article also mentions increased water consumption, something that will only get worse with an expanding population.

This particular article was of import to me because my wife and I love visiting that area of Florida, often known as "The Forgotten Coast".  One of the highlights of visiting that area of course is dining on oysters.  The photo above is from Eastpoint, just across the bay from Apalachicola, where we quite often stay.  I'll be interested to talk to the locals there in a few months, my wife and I will be staying there for a few vacation days of fishing and relaxation.  It will be disappointing if oysters aren't available.
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #360 on: August 14, 2013, 10:20:12 PM »
Defense Contractor: Climate Change Could Create "Business Opportunities"
Raytheon is worried about the risks of global warming. But it also thinks climate-related "security concerns" could boost demand for its military products.
By:Jeremy Schulman | Wed Aug. 14, 2013 3:00 AM PDT - Mother Jones


Tomahawk630a Cruise Missile - US Navy photo/Wikimedia Commons

Quote
Of all the business opportunities presented by global warming, Raytheon Company may have found one of the most alarming. The Massachusetts-based defense contractor—which makes everything from communications systems to Tomahawk missiles—thinks that future "security concerns" caused by climate change could mean expanded sales of its military products.

Raytheon, it should be noted, isn't exactly gunning for catastrophic global warming. Quite the opposite, in fact: In February, the company received a "Climate Leadership Award" from the Environmental Protection Agency for publicly reporting and aggressively reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. It's working on renewable energy technologies. ...............Raytheon anticipates "demand for its military products and services as security concerns may arise…as a result of climate change."

.............Raytheon wrote [registration required] last year that "expanded business opportunities are likely to arise as consumer behaviour and needs change in response to climate change."

What kind of business opportunities? Raytheon cites its renewable energy technologies, weather-prediction products, and emergency response equipment for natural disasters. But the company also expects to see "demand for its military products and services as security concerns may arise as results of droughts, floods, and storm events occur as a result of climate change."

The document says that these extreme weather conditions could have "destabilizing effects" and that on an international level, "climate change may cause humanitarian disasters, contribute to political violence, and undermine weak governments":

.........................................

Raytheon says in the document that these opportunities are "very likely" to occur 6 to 10 years down the road, ...... Jon Kasle, a Raytheon spokesperson, .............. did highlight Raytheon's work on the Joint Polar Satellite System—a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration program to monitor environmental and weather conditions. In addition, Kasle cited a mobile air traffic control system, recently purchased by the US Air Force, that he noted "could be used in humanitarian missions such as supporting recovery from a hurricane, flood, or other natural disaster." ............................................

A recent study noted that "some forms of intergroup violence…tend to be more likely following extreme rainfall conditions."

.................Recently, a group of researchers published a paper in Science concluding that global warming could substantially increase the frequency of violent conflict. The paper, which surveyed dozens of academic studies, noted that "some forms of intergroup violence, such as Hindu-Muslim riots [in India]…tend to be more likely following extreme rainfall conditions" and that low water availability, very low temperatures, and very high temperatures "have been associated with organized political conflicts in a variety of low-income contexts." ...............

Full article in Mother Jones: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/08/raytheon-climate-change-security

FULL DISCLOSURE: I'm retired from Raytheon, therefore I have a vested interest in the company's future.  Were I not retired, I would have been responsible for developing and facilitating the competitive strategy workshops for most of the future airborne and some of the space-borne products being developed.

It may sound counterintuitive to many people that the defense and aerospace industries are better equipped to respond to AGW/CC than almost any other industry sector.  The satellite technologies to monitor Arctic Sea Ice are not that different than those to identify ground based military targets.  The refinement image enhancement is probably a derivative of military R&D efforts. 

No matter how much we detest the thought of future conflicts, the impacts of AGW/CC are going to spawn multiple regional and global conflicts.  It is also interesting to note that military leaders are very aware of what the near future will bring.  Sadly, political leaders are still sticking their heads in the sand.  Also, any geo-engineering solutions, in the US, will probably be manufactured by defense-related industries.  They are the ones that have the most capable engineering and manufacturing capabilities.

What I found interesting in this article about Raytheon was that claim that they are anticipating climate related conflicts to begin within the next 6-10 years.  Even as doomerish as I am, I thought we had more time than that.
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ritter

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #361 on: August 14, 2013, 10:45:32 PM »
Interesting stuff, Oldleather. Thanks.
What I found interesting in this article about Raytheon was that claim that they are anticipating climate related conflicts to begin within the next 6-10 years.  Even as doomerish as I am, I thought we had more time than that.
Some say it's already started--the Arab Spring was kicked of by food insecurity, among other things. If crops keep failing (or, more accurately, declining in yield), it is only a matter of time until conflict comes to the more stable areas of the world. 6-10 years is well within my conceived timeline for conflict to erupt in "civilized" nations. Really, what would it take to push somewhere like Greece or Spain over the edge? Recall, it's not just climate change we are facing, but water shortages, energy shortages and shaky economic standing as well. A true convergence of "oh shit!" catastrophes.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #362 on: August 15, 2013, 10:05:37 AM »
What I found interesting in this article about Raytheon was that claim that they are anticipating climate related conflicts to begin within the next 6-10 years.  Even as doomerish as I am, I thought we had more time than that.

Well, it's a business and they want to sell their products, the earlier the better. And they are 'clever' enough to recognize consequences of climate change as refugees and reduced availability of resources lead to social friction and eventually to violence. Actually that logic is very easy to sell and I'd consider the defense industry as a clear winner of untackled global warming. A claim that may spark some unwanted discussions, so they pretend to be worried about future income, lol.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #363 on: August 27, 2013, 08:44:37 PM »
The insurance companies do not care if you believe in AGW. They do and they are raising your property insurance premiums because of it.

http://climatecrocks.com/2012/01/19/climate-disasters-jack-insurance-rates-up/

wili

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #364 on: August 27, 2013, 10:12:35 PM »
I asked these questions on the weather and ag thread, but it is really even more relevant here.

Don't most of us here think that we are likely to see a (virtually) sea-ice free Arctic very soon?

Don't many here think that this could lead to a radically different climactic system for the Northern Hemisphere--where we have one (or two?) Hadley cell instead of three--as an essentially immediate consequence of that newly open ocean at the top of the planet?

Won't this radical shift also radically redistribute where and when rain (and other precipitation and weather patterns) falls?

Aren't those changes likely to leave much of the area the world now depends on for its stable grains without most of those grains?

Won't that lead to mass starvation, again, not in some distant future, but within the next two to seven years?

Am I missing something?

Is anyone else...concerned, freaked out, depressed...about this?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #365 on: August 27, 2013, 10:27:01 PM »
Don't many here think that this could lead to a radically different climactic system for the Northern Hemisphere--where we have one (or two?) Hadley cell instead of three--as an essentially immediate consequence of that newly open ocean at the top of the planet?

Already responded there on the other thread - asking what evidence there is to support this contention (I find it an interesting idea, but have no feel for how possible or likely it is)?

Won't that lead to mass starvation, again, not in some distant future, but within the next two to seven years?

Am I missing something?

Is anyone else...concerned, freaked out, depressed...about this?

I've been clear I subscribe to a notion of much earlier and sooner collapse than most, notwithstanding that I'm not including such a profound change to atmospheric circulation in that view.

However - I would ask one question - why should anyone be more concerned about a nearer future collapse than a further one? We've long known that failure is on the cards and it is increasingly only a matter of when and not if.

Should it be any less concerning or any more acceptable if it's still more years or decades in the future, and other people will bear the brunt of it? What right do we have to be more concerned if it falls in our lifetime - or soon - than to be concerned for our later descendants if they have to bear the brunt of it and we managed to repeat the sins of our ancestors? Better perhaps that a bigger portion of the population should reap what they have sown - and taste the future they have left for their descendants (such as there should ultimately be)? How is it better if it is further away? There is no sign that meaningful action has occurred to this point - notwithstanding 40 years of limits to growth etc - and so - I don't see a basis to argue that it gives more time to do something.

wili

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #366 on: August 27, 2013, 10:43:19 PM »
The shift in atmospheric circulations mostly happened over at the Blog, especially here:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/second-storm/comments/page/1/#comments

Here's one of the most relevant posts from there:

Quote

I have been reading reports lately that indicate a complete absence of Arctic sea ice in early summer could be the trigger to flip the northern hemisphere into the hothouse mode just as it was when last the Earth had 400 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. Several researchers have been modeling the effect of an ice free Arctic ocean and the majority of runs show that the Ferrel cell of atmospheric circulation would grow from its current Equator to 30 north range and encompass the entire northern hemisphere.

See
http://www.fields.utoronto.ca/programs/scientific/10-11/biomathstat/Langford_W.pdf

and

http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/hadley.html

The studies don't say how long the Arctic has to be ice free, it could take a decade or more for the transition to happen once we are there, but at the rate we are going now I don't think it is nearly as far off in the future as we have been lead to believe by the IPCC.

Posted by: Allen W. McDonnell | July 26, 2013 at 22:15

See the discussion at the weather and ag thread for further discussion.

As to why to be concerned, well, I guess as you point out mostly for personal/selfish reasons.

But in general, I think most come to sites like this to try to understand what is really going on, how fast things look like their going to come down, and what the connections are. This is both 'academic' interest, knowledge for knowledge's sake, and because most like to have some idea what is about to hit us before it actually does, even if we can't do all that much about it.

If governments really took something like this seriously, one would hope that they would start immediately storing grain, put in place big restrictions on wasteful diets and biofuels, strongly discourage birth...all the things they should be doing anyway, but the immediacy may help focus minds a bit more than they seem to be now.

I do agree that, from a total-life-on-earth perspective, it would probably be better to have a fast, nearly total crash of human civilization. But I guess, misanthropic as I may seem to many, I still shudder at the thought of billions dying in the next very few years.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2013, 11:01:20 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ritter

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #367 on: August 27, 2013, 10:54:50 PM »
why should anyone be more concerned about a nearer future collapse than a further one? We've long known that failure is on the cards and it is increasingly only a matter of when and not if.
It is my unpleasant belief that the sooner and harder the crash, the more likely humans will escape their fate as a genetic dead end over the next few centuries.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #368 on: August 28, 2013, 12:05:20 PM »
why should anyone be more concerned about a nearer future collapse than a further one? We've long known that failure is on the cards and it is increasingly only a matter of when and not if.
It is my unpleasant belief that the sooner and harder the crash, the more likely humans will escape their fate as a genetic dead end over the next few centuries.

Supposing the near future collapse occurs as a result of the Northern Hemisphere entering a hothouse state, is there any hope for humanity to survive anyway?

Sure maybe society can recover after a number of decades, but over time as the hothouse state could cause the nightmarish methane release, 50GT, and conditions on earth could be extremely detrimental and everything could just become a barren landscape.

Also personally I would prefer the collapse of society to eventuate, but that's just because of selfishness.

ritter

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #369 on: August 28, 2013, 05:49:54 PM »
Supposing the near future collapse occurs as a result of the Northern Hemisphere entering a hothouse state, is there any hope for humanity to survive anyway?

Nobody has an answer for this. We are a very clever and culturally adaptive species. But we do need to eat! I doubt very much we'll have hothouse in my lifetime (I'm 40). But I'm quite certain the climate will have changed enough to radically diminish our ability to feed our(7 billion+)selves in my lifetime, especially coupled with a peak oil energy-constrained world. Hold on to your hats and stockpile that popcorn-n-booze. We're in for a wild ride here shortly.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #370 on: August 28, 2013, 06:22:15 PM »
Supposing the near future collapse occurs as a result of the Northern Hemisphere entering a hothouse state, is there any hope for humanity to survive anyway?

Sure maybe society can recover after a number of decades, but over time as the hothouse state could cause the nightmarish methane release, 50GT, and conditions on earth could be extremely detrimental and everything could just become a barren landscape.

Also personally I would prefer the collapse of society to eventuate, but that's just because of selfishness.

Even if atmospheric carbon dioxide ultimately ended up in the thousands of ppm I would expect the polar regions to still remain within habitable parameters for humanity. Hence I don't think extinction is very likely, although it is of course possible if less technologically developed societies in the future are unable to handle the conditions. It ought to be noted however that people have colonised everything from the Arctic ice to near deserts without modern technology. Technology isn't the magic bullet people think it is, just most people today can't envisage life without it and want to believe in the progress myth.

I favour early collapse as human civilisation will then do less cumulative damage in itself (notwithstanding additional contribution from natural feedbacks) and less definitively deplete finite resources that may be needed later (particularly as a technological regression will take a lot of resources off the table as the ability to access them will be gone). Besides, I think people need to see what they've done.

To what extent society can reform post collapse is a more interesting question, I think. The human species has endured (in some form) for a couple million years so far, and weathered many adverse events. Although this may be the most adverse - we are going into it with a very favourable distribution of our species and a chance (even if most ignore it) to prepare for the initial stages from a platform of considerable technology and knowledge.

However, so far as we know - complex civilisation emerged only during the Holocene, during a period of unusual climatic stability. That isn't to say people didn't have culture and clothes and music and so on before this time - just the large settlements and ability to technologically advance substantially that they grant - did not happen without the stability. I think the question therefore is - can we make those things work post industrial civilisation?

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #371 on: September 04, 2013, 09:43:54 PM »
I thought I would provide some information for discussion regarding the impact of failing or failed states on the system of global capitalism. One relatively persistent discussion has been on the impact in various regions of the world as a result of climate change. The Middle East and Africa have figured heavily in these discussions as it relates to the availability of water during persistent drought as well as food security. These issues can destroy the fabric of a society. We saw evidence of what rising food prices can do during the Arab Spring.

I have argued that western nations cannot reasonably expect to import any goods from an area where a state has failed and descended into chaos, no matter how critical the import is for sustaining the western nations economic health.

Libya provides a current example  of the impact of a failed state on exports. As a backdrop to the attached article, Libya currently has the 8th largest proven oil reserves and prior to the civil war, exported 1.6 million barrels per day. Exports have nearly ceased, plunging to 160K barrels per day as militias have taken control of production and shipping facilities. I cannot think of any practical way to restart exports that would not result in the destruction of these facilities.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/special-report-we-all-thought-libya-had-moved-on--it-has-but-into-lawlessness-and-ruin-8797041.html

This story will repeat itself wherever climate change causes a collapse.

« Last Edit: September 04, 2013, 10:46:20 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #372 on: September 04, 2013, 10:17:39 PM »
SH

This is a good point.  To use Libya as an example.  Say in some future day the US determined that access to and control of Libyan oil was critical to maintain our little empire (btw I am about 3/4 the way through that book 'Sorrows of Empire" you recommended - very interesting since that was the world I spent my career in).  Could the US with its vast military capabilities seize and maintain secure control of the Libyan oil fields and export capabilities.  Without going into a long explanation I will just get to the chase.  The only way that would be practically possible in the case of a complete breakdown there would require resorting to genocidal levels of force.  So I agree, in general, that controlling the place is not an option.  A caveat here:  I do not mean to give the impression that somewhere at some time in this century various powers will not resort to genocidal levels of force.  I think that is certain.   But Libya would not rise to that level among US interests in my opinion.

However, if we took a different kind of scenario and played it out I think the answer might be different.  I will pick an imaginary less-developed country, which has failed due to the combined effects of famine, disease and overpopulation, but holds strategic mineral resources that are critical to US (and our remaining allies) interests.  So a critical mining operation.  In a case like this it is quite possible that controlling the mining and shipping would be within the capabilities of the US military.  You would have a resource that is not dispersed, does not require sophisticated/fragile technology to extract, is hard to damage/destroy, and transporting it would not be overly burdensome.   A much different situation than an oil infrastructure.  Any exact location would, of course, have specific security concerns and require a unique solution.  For some locations control might be impractical, but for others it could be pretty straightforward.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #373 on: September 04, 2013, 11:15:52 PM »
JimD...

Glad you are enjoying the book. I found it thought provoking and informative. I am not certain that I completely accept all of Johnson's arguments regarding the historical features of empire and the inevitable demise that results. I do find his argument interesting and worthy of consideration. I also found his cataloguing of the immense U.S. military presence and cost of this presence eye opening. In particular his cataloguing of the militarization of our economy was sobering. Large areas of the country are now dependent on the industry that supports armaments. In effect, we have created a voting constituency whose economic livelihood is dependent on the expansion of empire.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #374 on: February 05, 2014, 03:30:07 AM »
Finally, I'm Back!!

Little did I know, nearly 6 months ago when I last posted, that I would not be posting on this forum for such a long period of time.  I'm choosing this topic for a brief personal note before I make additional comments pertinent to the topic.  Because I value the many friendships made and the collegiality of the many conversations we've had, I thought I owed the community an explanation for my prolonged absence.  Here goes:

For an extended period last year, my wife and I were struggling with a decision to sell our home, here in Texas, and move to the East Coast to be closer to her daughter and son-in-law.  When my wife finally retired from her last post-retirement part-time job, we took a brief trip to make decisions about our future.  We made the decision to find a new location to find new home and start life anew.  Primarily it was the desire to be closer to family, yet, the political climate here in Texas was becoming untenable.  That necessitated a prolonged trip to the East Coast, with a few days here and there to go fishing, to find a community that we wanted to be a part of.  We believe that we want to move to Northeastern North Carolina, close to the kids in D.C. and equidistant from the coastal regions and mountainous regions of North Carolina.

Hence, we are in the process of readying our current home  for sale as well as extricating ourselves from numerous responsibilities in the local community.  Both my wife and I looked forward to involvement in community activities, during our retirement years.  therefore, we both ended up in responsible positions in multiple political, non-profit and social organizations.  We both care passionately about the causes we've supported and are attempting to leave as gracefully as possible.

Another thing happened along the way which depressed me greatly.  Last October, when the US Congress refused to raise the debt ceiling, I became convinced that if the world's largest economy and the most powerful military could not even agree to pay it's debts, it would never incur the financial pains of addressing AGW/CC.  This, I'm afraid, will doom the world to the many collapse scenarios which are currently being discussed on this forum.

PRESENT DA

I started this topic almost a year ago, I sensed that there was a relationship between the demise of the Arctic sea ice and the global impacts, both economically and societally.  Now, in the past year, we've seen more studies linking changes in the Arctic to changes in global weather patterns.  While many of these extreme events can not be 100% attributed to AGW/CC, I am certain that there is a linkage and it will only increase with time.

What disturbs me most is that I think that the hypothetical chart I posted on the first page of this topic is too optimistic.  I portrayed the most severe economic and societal impacts occurring after the global sea levels rose 1 meter, which might be as soon as 2050.  Now, I'm uncertain that society and the global economy can survive much beyond 2030/2040.

That being said, I'm glad that that this forum has provided a place to discuss the many varied aspects of AGW from the many sciences involved in understanding the changing climate, to the potential solutions, or to the catastrophic consequences of global inaction.

From time to time, I'll jump back into these many discussions.  I haven't stopped caring...and I won't.  Just don't know from day-to-day when personal circumstances will dictate a month or more of inactivity.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

JimD

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #375 on: February 05, 2014, 03:59:43 AM »
OLN!!

It is great to see you back.  I was wondering the other day what had happened to you. 

jim
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How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #376 on: February 05, 2014, 04:06:32 AM »
JimD,

Thanks for the response.  Among our may recent travels, we were back in Tucson for Thanksgiving with  some old friends.

Do you share my concern thank it seems that the severe impacts of AGW/CC will be occurring faster than previously anticipated and that governments are less likely to respond in a timely fashion??
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #377 on: February 05, 2014, 06:11:22 AM »
OLN
So good to hear from you!
I'd feared you had suffered some kind of health problems when I couldn't find any of your posts here or at Dr. Rood's.
Always looking forwards to your take on things.


Stay Well
Terry

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #378 on: February 05, 2014, 11:57:39 AM »
Welcome back, OLN. I know all about not having time.  :)
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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #379 on: February 05, 2014, 04:25:23 PM »
JimD,

Thanks for the response.  Among our may recent travels, we were back in Tucson for Thanksgiving with  some old friends.

Do you share my concern thank it seems that the severe impacts of AGW/CC will be occurring faster than previously anticipated and that governments are less likely to respond in a timely fashion??

I certainly do. I have always thought the focus on sea level rise was misguided. We will be slammed by climate effects a hundred years before sea level rise becomes a serious issue, at least as serious as extreme weather effects which are hitting us now and will be disastrous by midcentury.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #380 on: February 05, 2014, 04:43:36 PM »
Yes, I largely agree with you and SH on this.  SLR will be a contributor to collapse but mostly in the sense of just adding to the demands for resources as everything starts to crumble.  I still follow the chain of logic that says when the global industrial food system can no longer provide sufficient food and the death rate exceeds the birth rate significantly is when the house of cards comes down.

As to the speed with which this happens or is happening I certainly would not discount that events are speeding up a bit.  But one has to keep in mind the natural variations which result in a lot of noise on the very short term scale.  Do things seem like they are speeding up because we are on a noise peak (some would argue we are on a noise trough and if so things are definitely speeding up) or because our methods of measurement are becoming more accurate and we were previously leaning towards the conservative side?  I don't know, but time will provide the answer.  But even if it is going to take longer than we think I don't see any way to avoid the same result.  We are way past that point.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #381 on: February 05, 2014, 05:28:13 PM »
OLN, glad you're back and well.

In my mind, things are progressing both more quickly and more slowly than anticipated. I'd thought peak oil would have smacked us more soundly across the head by now. But the climate change issues have accelerated beyond my nightmares.

I still follow the chain of logic that says when the global industrial food system can no longer provide sufficient food...

I fear we in California are going to test this for you this summer. Maybe not the death/run out of food part, but our $44 billion ag industry is in serious trouble. If this is a long-term trend rather than a run of the mill short-term drought, my collapse just started in earnest.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #382 on: February 05, 2014, 07:04:40 PM »
As to the speed with which this happens or is happening I certainly would not discount that events are speeding up a bit.  But one has to keep in mind the natural variations which result in a lot of noise on the very short term scale.  Do things seem like they are speeding up because we are on a noise peak (some would argue we are on a noise trough and if so things are definitely speeding up) or because our methods of measurement are becoming more accurate and we were previously leaning towards the conservative side?  I don't know, but time will provide the answer.  But even if it is going to take longer than we think I don't see any way to avoid the same result.  We are way past that point.

I'd argue we're in a noise trough - last year the weather appeared very helpful to the retention of Arctic ice and global harvests were generally pretty good. One bad dice roll and I think you'll see another round of the sort of social breakdown that happened in the so called Arab Spring - but bigger and significantly more widespread (many more societies have become increasingly stressed in that time).

Even 2030 seems pretty damn optimistic to me...

Just because people think there is slack in the system does not mean the rich and powerful will use that slack intelligently. Look at the USA for instance - cutting food stamp payments even as astonishingly high numbers of Americans increasingly depend upon these to help them pay for food? The cut is an ideologically motivated one acting to further increase social stress factors - despite the fact this is not necessary at this time.

Likewise the ongoing insistence on clinging to corn based ethanol biofuel as food prices remain persistently high, subjecting numerous countries to high stress levels. This insistence was strong enough to be dogmatically maintained even for the drought and weaker yields of 2012, and has held for years now.

Someone mentioned peak oil and I would argue corn based ethanol is a way of alleviating peak oil slightly by "stretching" the automotive fuel pool a bit further. I don't think peak oil has gone anywhere - we are still constrained economically by the lack of cheap energy and the only thing that cheapens the energy now is economic damage. The profit margins of the major oil producers are starting to come under increasing pressure as they try to balance high cost marginal fields against fickle demand, but on the whole I'd say the industry and society (look at fracking in America) have put the pedal to the floor to squeeze as much out of the margins as possible to keep oil output at peak levels.

However that necessarily entails a much faster and more abrupt drop off as those efforts run out of steam and the most marginal resources will never be exploited as we cannot (mathematically) predicate western civilisation upon energy prices which are that expensive (one of the constraints renewable sources still have in terms of our way of life not being sustainable with them yet). So I think it is a false sense of security to think that peak oil is not here - or that the effects are not profound - we're busy eroding the last of our buffer there. The Hubbert curve is ever steepening ahead of us as we pull the future part for present consumption.

Then there's the little wildcard up in the Arctic - we're already seeing extreme weather escalating gradually - but wait until that ocean is open again. I think the probability of total ice loss this year is now considerably higher than last year with the anomalously high temperatures up there right now. At the very least it's hard to see how that isn't going to retard thickening at the time of year you'd expect the most ice growth (volumetrically at least).

Maybe we'll get a few years yet - but I think anything longer (certainly anything over a decade) requires some heroic assumptions about the benevolence of the changes in the Arctic. Increasingly flawed and denier type assumptions too, given the increasing body of research (and actual events...) showing us how much the sea ice matters. The resource constraint issues are an additional stressor.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #383 on: February 05, 2014, 08:41:11 PM »
As to the speed with which this happens or is happening I certainly would not discount that events are speeding up a bit.  But one has to keep in mind the natural variations which result in a lot of noise on the very short term scale.  Do things seem like they are speeding up because we are on a noise peak (some would argue we are on a noise trough and if so things are definitely speeding up) or because our methods of measurement are becoming more accurate and we were previously leaning towards the conservative side?  I don't know, but time will provide the answer.  But even if it is going to take longer than we think I don't see any way to avoid the same result.  We are way past that point.

I'd argue we're in a noise trough - last year the weather appeared very helpful to the retention of Arctic ice and global harvests were generally pretty good. One bad dice roll and I think you'll see another round of the sort of social breakdown that happened in the so called Arab Spring - but bigger and significantly more widespread (many more societies have become increasingly stressed in that time).

Even 2030 seems pretty damn optimistic to me...

Just because people think there is slack in the system does not mean the rich and powerful will use that slack intelligently. Look at the USA for instance - cutting food stamp payments even as astonishingly high numbers of Americans increasingly depend upon these to help them pay for food? The cut is an ideologically motivated one acting to further increase social stress factors - despite the fact this is not necessary at this time.

Likewise the ongoing insistence on clinging to corn based ethanol biofuel as food prices remain persistently high, subjecting numerous countries to high stress levels. This insistence was strong enough to be dogmatically maintained even for the drought and weaker yields of 2012, and has held for years now.

Someone mentioned peak oil and I would argue corn based ethanol is a way of alleviating peak oil slightly by "stretching" the automotive fuel pool a bit further. I don't think peak oil has gone anywhere - we are still constrained economically by the lack of cheap energy and the only thing that cheapens the energy now is economic damage. The profit margins of the major oil producers are starting to come under increasing pressure as they try to balance high cost marginal fields against fickle demand, but on the whole I'd say the industry and society (look at fracking in America) have put the pedal to the floor to squeeze as much out of the margins as possible to keep oil output at peak levels.

However that necessarily entails a much faster and more abrupt drop off as those efforts run out of steam and the most marginal resources will never be exploited as we cannot (mathematically) predicate western civilisation upon energy prices which are that expensive (one of the constraints renewable sources still have in terms of our way of life not being sustainable with them yet). So I think it is a false sense of security to think that peak oil is not here - or that the effects are not profound - we're busy eroding the last of our buffer there. The Hubbert curve is ever steepening ahead of us as we pull the future part for present consumption.

Then there's the little wildcard up in the Arctic - we're already seeing extreme weather escalating gradually - but wait until that ocean is open again. I think the probability of total ice loss this year is now considerably higher than last year with the anomalously high temperatures up there right now. At the very least it's hard to see how that isn't going to retard thickening at the time of year you'd expect the most ice growth (volumetrically at least).

Maybe we'll get a few years yet - but I think anything longer (certainly anything over a decade) requires some heroic assumptions about the benevolence of the changes in the Arctic. Increasingly flawed and denier type assumptions too, given the increasing body of research (and actual events...) showing us how much the sea ice matters. The resource constraint issues are an additional stressor.

I do think you are being somewhat pessimistic in the sense that there are certain factors that are, at the moment, playing in our favor as food production was not severely hampered by severe weather during 2013 and production increased (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp/story.asp?NewsID=45388&Cr=food+security&Cr1=#.UvKOufl_tic)

Quote
In its Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts that cereal production this year will reach 2,479 million tonnes, a new record level.

Alongside this increase in food production, although as the article states there are still social problems in certain areas like Syria which experienced significant drops in Wheat Production, the Arctic Sea Ice, despite the anomalous temperatures, has thickened as a result of the favorable cool summer, (http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-in-2013-is-sixth-lowest-on-record/#.UvKPVPl_tic) along with the general increase in volume during the winter, (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/12/cryosat-arctic-sea-ice-up-from-record-low.html).



Taking these two factors into account, what I am saying is purely speculation, I think that it is unlikely that society is viable for collapse in the  near term, (2014 to 2016) as increased food production last year would provide a buffer for society and allow for it to survive regardless of a poor harvest, I think a drop in production that was similar to 2012 is likely to occur with the future from there being unknown, and thus Western Society is likely to suffer from further social unrest, another Arab Spring like event that is much more widespread is likely, but that's it in my opinion, rather than collapsing altogether in that time-frame, however all events post 2016 are a mystery to me as conditions could be ripe for civilization collapse during late 2016/ early 2017. Now when it comes to the Arctic; unless we get a really poor summer, the ice will probably survive as the increased thickness will probably allow the Arctic to remain resilient in a normal winter and drop down to below 2012's record low in a somewhat unfavorable summer, although I could be wrong altogether and severe tropical storms could rip the Arctic apart within a few days in summer, but that's probably an outlier.

Now I will note that there are probably a large amount of holes in my argument against near-term civilization collapse as there are a number of negative factors that are propping up, the most notable being the possible El-Nino which will exacerbate warming, we are in neutral ENSO at the moment and already we are climbing up to record high global temperatures (http://www.livemint.com/Politics/lvZbGZjG8wafqip3O6HqMN/2013-sixth-hottest-year-confirms-longterm-warming-WMO.html) and possibly lead to increased disruption of food production which will in turn, bring civilization to a grinding halt.

Another factor that is notable is the present Methane threat that resides in the Arctic, and although this may appear as a worst case scenario regarding Climate Change, the threat of 50 Gigatonnes of Methane being emitted by the Arctic is quite important in the sense that it will probably destroy humanity's ability to provide for the present population in a short space of time, with the present state of our climate probably a year to perhaps six months, and bring about a mass extinction event that is perhaps similar to what is described in Killer In Our Midsts.
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wili

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #384 on: February 05, 2014, 08:50:51 PM »
"conditions could be ripe for civilization collapse during late 2016/ early 2017"

When this is the position of the optimist in the crowd, we should all be worried! :-\

And, yes, if early predictions of an El Nino strengthen and come to fruition, it could change all sorts of things globally. That's why I'm keeping (with others) such a close watch on it on another thread, even though I know that any predictions at this time of year are going to be very uncertain.

It's past time to get used to living with a lot less (on the material plane, that is).
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #385 on: February 05, 2014, 10:33:21 PM »
"conditions could be ripe for civilization collapse during late 2016/ early 2017"

When this is the position of the optimist in the crowd, we should all be worried! :-\

And, yes, if early predictions of an El Nino strengthen and come to fruition, it could change all sorts of things globally. That's why I'm keeping (with others) such a close watch on it on another thread, even though I know that any predictions at this time of year are going to be very uncertain.

It's past time to get used to living with a lot less (on the material plane, that is).

A guy who writes a short story about how civilization collapsed back in the summer of 2013 cannot really be considered an optimist  :P

That aside there is the possibility that the west can still sustain itself up to 2030 perhaps because   there is the chance that Natural Variation will be on our side and that overall the whole system could remain in place for a while as it slowly crumbles from the outside-in. The reason for this is that there are likely to be marginal areas that can support themselves as the climate system would not just wreck havoc upon everything as soon as the Arctic Ice disappears.
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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #386 on: February 05, 2014, 10:37:52 PM »
I feel it's worth again noting the size of the Arctic albedo change (nowhere near fully realised yet), having not mentioned it for at least a year.

From 0.3 W/m for ice free for one month to 0.7 W/m if totally ice free - that's the impact of the Arctic sea ice albedo change if you were to distribute it over the whole earth system. Let's ignore for a moment that all that extra energy is being focussed into the system in both time and space and compare to the carbon dioxide forcing of 1.6 W/m.

http://www.npolar.no/npcms/export/sites/np/en/people/stephen.hudson/Hudson11_AlbedoFeedback.pdf

Even 0.3 W/m is significant, even if you could treat it as a nicely smoothed out global average, which you can't. Also please note that only refers to sea ice - right now loss of land albedo from diminished and earlier retreating snow pack is just as big an additional factor...

Because volume is being lost more than area, I think it's still very early days in terms of the changes we can expect as a result of the sea ice loss (ie right now we're still mostly talking about increased heat loss due to less insulation value from the sea ice, not so much about categorically extra energy absorbed into the earth system). A slightly altered jet stream and more blocking patterns could seem like nothing a little later this decade... yet right now they're big news and the infrastructure of modern civilisation is increasingly stressed towards it's apparent capacity to respond (and I mean practical capacity, not the theoretical one in fantasy land where common sense solutions actually happen).

So let's look at a quote from that paper:

Quote
Results show that the globally and annually averaged radiative forcing caused by the observed loss of sea ice in the Arctic between 1979 and 2007 is approximately 0.1 W m2; a complete removal of Arctic sea ice results in a forcing of about 0.7 W m2, while a more realistic ice-free-summer scenario (no ice for one month, decreased ice at all other times of the year) results in a forcing of about 0.3 W m2, similar to present-day anthropogenic forcing caused by
halocarbons

So right now, we aren't much over 0.1 Wm2 (~0.2 if you include the land albedo). And we're seeing changes to large scale earth systems as noted and being experienced.

So let's triple that sometime in the next few years by reaching a month of ice free conditions? Common sense tells me that's going to be a big deal, and yet - it won't be anywhere near the end of the process.

Adding that stress into a human world with ample per capita land and energy resources might not be unmanageable, but adding it into a world already stressed by limits? Do we think the weather will get just a little worse gradually in a nice linear trend for the rest of this decade? Or is there a possibility things really start to change dramatically?

I'd hate to pick any specific year because of the role that weather plays, but the Arctic alone seems pretty serious.

At the point where the global economy really starts to go down, one gets up to another 0.8Wm2 of rapid forcing change - from the loss of the sulphate aerosols.

There are six years to the end of this decade and it seems to me those two factors alone could easily add another 1Wm2 of averaged forcing by 2020? If one were pessimistic (near total loss of large scale industrial activity and extensive land and sea albedo loss) you might say around 1.6Wm2 - or the same as the existing carbon dioxide forcing (but in addition).

I seem to remember someone persuading me (using a Hansen paper) that the earth responds fairly fast to forcing changes, meaning a pulse of rapid warming. We then have to ask questions about the integrity of certain rainforests (and other forests for that matter) and shallow submarine clathrates... the next two rapid feedbacks that come to mind.

Still, if the course of events went down this sort of path - there is one silver lining - at least we get rid of a lot of it all at once. Leaving the final loss of the major ice sheets and deeper submarine clathrates and the consequences of an anoxic/euxinic ocean to deal with longer term.

ccgwebmaster

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #387 on: February 05, 2014, 10:40:03 PM »
The reason for this is that there are likely to be marginal areas that can support themselves as the climate system would not just wreck havoc upon everything as soon as the Arctic Ice disappears.

I think we'll have marginal areas to inhabit indefinitely into the future personally.

But you can't run modern civilisation with it's globally distributed critical resource dependencies (of all types, not just the ones you dig out of the ground) on marginal areas.

wili

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #388 on: February 06, 2014, 04:07:36 AM »
The problem with marginal areas is that they are...marginal. Only relatively small communities can live there, therefore it only takes relatively small catastrophes to wipe the same out. And there will be plenty of small and ever more immense catastrophes on hand to wreak havoc on whatever scraps of humanity manage to live beyond the deluge.

Theta, could you share a link to your short story?

ccg, I don't know if you've been following this on other threads, but latest research suggests that things like lapse rate and blackbody radiation differences between the Arctic and the lower latitudes play a larger role in the anomalous warming in far northern climes than do albedo changes. I don't completely understand either (and I'm too drunk and lazy right now to track down the references for you), but you might want to look into these further before concluding what are the primary drivers in the Arctic warming. (Not to say that albedo shifts aren't huge, too.)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #389 on: February 06, 2014, 04:29:06 AM »
ccg, I don't know if you've been following this on other threads, but latest research suggests that things like lapse rate and blackbody radiation differences between the Arctic and the lower latitudes play a larger role in the anomalous warming in far northern climes than do albedo changes. I don't completely understand either (and I'm too drunk and lazy right now to track down the references for you), but you might want to look into these further before concluding what are the primary drivers in the Arctic warming. (Not to say that albedo shifts aren't huge, too.)

I must admit I haven't (and will try to take a look if it's findable quickly) but I'm not sure what's new there? If by black body radiation one means the radiation of heat back to space during the long Arctic winter - certainly - but isn't that extra energy absorbed during the summer in large part due to albedo change? The temperature change in the north is mostly therefore measurable during the fall/autumn and winter because that's when the heat starts to come back out of the ocean - and summer time temperatures don't change that much because there is still ice to keep the temperature around freezing point and in any event the ocean can hold a lot more heat than the atmosphere even once the ice has all melted. Makes sense to me?

For as long as all the heat is released back to the atmosphere (or space) during the Arctic winter we at least have the consolation that the loss of ice might put us into a seasonally ice free condition rather than a totally ice free one.

wili

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #390 on: February 06, 2014, 11:20:59 AM »
Here's the link to the main article:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2071.html

There is some discussion of it over at the "What is the cause of the PIOMAS volume loss" thread.

Chris R, there, takes the article to be more about why the tropics have not warmed up as much as the Arctic than about why the Arctic has warmed up so much, but those seem to be just two sides of the same proverbial coin to me.

Here's an article discussing mostly the atmospheric-structure/lapse-rate side of the article:

http://news.yahoo.com/arctic-39-39-layer-cake-39-atmosphere-blamed-160858894.html

My limited understanding is that the article posits that there are two main drivers of anomalous warming in the Arctic that together have a greater effect than just the ice/snow albedo driver:

One is that the structure of the atmosphere there is very stratified causing any warming that happens from GW or albedo to stay closer to the surface than they would in, say, the tropics.

The second it that, as the abstract puts it, "as the surface warms, more energy is radiated back to space in low latitudes, compared with the Arctic." This later is apparently because of the difference in absolute temperatures between the two regions. This cause is amplified to the power of 4 by the Stefan-Boltzmann equation/law:

Quote
the Stefan–Boltzmann law states that the total energy radiated per unit surface area of a black body across all wavelengths per unit time (also known as the black-body radiant exitance or emissive power), j*, is directly proportional to the fourth power of the black body's thermodynamic temperature T:

    j* =  σT4.

The constant of proportionality σ, called the Stefan–Boltzmann constant or Stefan's constant, derives from other known constants of nature.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law

I'll let you puzzle it out from there. Good luck!

But it does look to me as if all these positive feedbacks do also feed back on each other, further amplifying the total heating.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #391 on: February 06, 2014, 11:56:19 PM »
"conditions could be ripe for civilization collapse during late 2016/ early 2017"

When this is the position of the optimist in the crowd, we should all be worried! :-\

And, yes, if early predictions of an El Nino strengthen and come to fruition, it could change all sorts of things globally. That's why I'm keeping (with others) such a close watch on it on another thread, even though I know that any predictions at this time of year are going to be very uncertain.

It's past time to get used to living with a lot less (on the material plane, that is).

A guy who writes a short story about how civilization collapsed back in the summer of 2013 cannot really be considered an optimist  :P

That aside there is the possibility that the west can still sustain itself up to 2030 perhaps because   there is the chance that Natural Variation will be on our side and that overall the whole system could remain in place for a while as it slowly crumbles from the outside-in. The reason for this is that there are likely to be marginal areas that can support themselves as the climate system would not just wreck havoc upon everything as soon as the Arctic Ice disappears.

I think there is a strong possibility of multiple collapse scenarios to consider, some more linked to AGW/CC than others.  Any societal collapse(s) that could occur within the next 5-10 may well be attributed more to regional conflicts, partially abetted by resource (food/water/fuel etc.)shortages.  These collapses may well be exacerbated  prolonged droughts or catastrophic weather-related events.

I do believe that Western societies will find ways to cope with the changing climate until sometime in the late 2020s or early 2030s.   I say cope as opposed to adapt because adaptation requires levels of planning and cognizance that the changing climate is an existential threat to global civilization.

Those of us who truly believe the imminence and severity of Climate Change are probably decades ahead of the vast majority of reasonably educated people worldwide. 
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #392 on: April 06, 2015, 02:23:03 AM »
I started this topic over two years ago, soon after joining the Forum.  For most of 2013 i was a very prolific poster on the forum.  Then significant events in my personal life superseded my ability to devote the daily hours to this Forum, however, there has seldom been a day that I have not looked at a few charts on the ASIB and read a few relevant comments on this Forum.  For the many friends, ("cohorts in crime"), I've made on this Forum my absence was due neither to serious health or family issues.  However, I was extremely disheartened and more than a bit depressed when my fellow Americans voted to place the Republicans in charge of the US Senate again, which gave Senator Inhofe control of the Committee which controls all Environmental actions by the Senate.

Now back to the reason for this addendum to this topic.  Little did I realize two years ago how successful Neven's Forum would become, nor did I imagine the plethora of topics that would be spawned covering every scientific aspect of declining Arctic Sea Ice,  Glaciology, Climatology and Meteorology as well as discussions on government actions/inactions, societal response to Climate Change, recommended mitigation and/or adaptation strategies, the need for a complete revamping of the world's economic systems and finally a new system of international governance.

I'm taking the liberty of re-posting the hypothetical chart (see below) that I developed several years ago to set the framework for this topic.  The horizontal axis depicts stage of Arctic Sea ice Extent followed by incremental rises in Global Mean Sea Level Rise (SLR).  The chart, as I designed it, almost implies that I was projecting the course of events that would occur during the 21st century.  However I would venture a guess that SLR will not exceed 3 meters before 2080 and quite possibly by 2120.

After watching and reading about what is happening globally due to Climate Change I believe that I was being far too conservative when I implied that the most calamitous impacts, socially and economically would not occur until sometime after mid-century.  I am now convinced that the world will reach a crisis state far sooner than that.  I am also factoring in issues other than Climate Change, such as over-population and finite resource depletion as well as the current state of societal unrest in many regions of the world.

Secondly, my hypothetical chart linked every event to the decline of Arctic Sea Ice.  While the warming of the Arctic certainly plays a role in changing weather patterns in the  Northern Hemisphere, we can't attribute heatwaves in Australia, the current drought in Brazil and the rapidly collapsing of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf to events in the Arctic.  However, if Dr. Jennifer Francis is to be believed, the current extreme drought conditions in California are quite probably due to the changes to the Jet Stream which have been caused by the warming of the Arctic.  We can not also forget the slowing of the Gulf Stream which  is also quite possibly due to the warming of the Arctic.

We are witnessing the earth's largest scientific laboratory experiment.  However, mankind did not write the test plan, just provided excess GHGs and too many people with no plans to conserve water or other critical finite resources.

At the age of almost 69, I won't be around when the final results of this global laboratory experiment are written, but I'm willing to bet than the test will not be  consider a success by any standards of sustainability for a biosphere that is fit for human habitation on a large enough scale to prosper spiritually, socially and economically.

"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

Ranman99

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #393 on: August 21, 2022, 03:26:11 PM »
When I watch a piece like this, I am always waiting for "what about natural phenomena wild cards, the greenhouse gas impacts already locked in, the microplastics and heavy metals in the food chain, etc. etc. etc.?" But they never come.



But I did find many data points were covered very quickly in this vid, so it is a worthwhile 60 mins or less played at 1.75 times speed.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #394 on: August 21, 2022, 10:35:24 PM »
When I watch a piece like this, I am always waiting for "what about natural phenomena wild cards, the greenhouse gas impacts already locked in, the microplastics and heavy metals in the food chain, etc. etc. etc.?" But they never come.

But I did find many data points were covered very quickly in this vid, so it is a worthwhile 60 mins or less played at 1.75 times speed.

Zeihan is a compelling speaker, covering massively important subjects.  I wish he'd face not just questions, but a debate with a comparably bright mind.

One example: he perhaps over-estimates demographic challenges, with aging populations in most of the developed world.  On the one hand, we're constantly told that AI will displace millions of workers, but he's saying that aging populations will cause an inevitable crisis of lack of workers.  These can't both be true.  My sense is that AI will mostly just rejigger what workers are doing, but any substantial economic necessity will be able to find workers.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #395 on: August 22, 2022, 01:33:16 AM »
AI for consumers has been around and improving for a long time. In Telecom and Networking it is starting to make a big splash in the last few years. Machine learning methodologies are getting slicker every year.

AI combined with Quantum computing will radically change all of our lives over the next five years. I do not want to list all of the ways. Some good many not so great.

I always said I would retire from ICT before Quantum computing became mainstream, and that has about been achieved. On both accounts!  :P

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #397 on: August 22, 2022, 04:17:56 PM »
Joined too late to vote, but I would have voted 2-10 years after BOE.

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Re: Global Impact (Economic & Societal) of Declining Arctic Sea Ice
« Reply #398 on: August 22, 2022, 04:37:01 PM »
Well that made me scroll up to the poll.
Interesting question. What would we mean by a perenially ice-free arctic? A BOE is not the same. For a truly ice free Arctic you will also need to melt Greenland and thus 1m GSLA will always come first, probably by centuries.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.