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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 490480 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10750 on: January 16, 2021, 01:10:03 PM »
Thanks for the home remedy  ;)

Je vous remercie pour le remède maison

Il vaut mieux prévenir que guérir 
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10751 on: January 16, 2021, 04:53:43 PM »
COVID-19 Exposure On Flights Is More Common Than You Think. The US Doesn't Share Details, But Canada Does
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3905053001

... Data from Canadian public health authorities show a near daily occurrence of flights where a passenger may have been infected while flying. From the start of the coronavirus pandemic in March through early January, the Public Health Agency of Canada has identified potential exposure on more than 1,600 international flights and more than 1,400 flights within Canada, for a total of more than 3,000 flights, including nearly 200 in the past two weeks alone.

On the list: U.S. carriers American, United, Delta, Alaska and Allegiant. The U.S. cities with the most affected flights on the list: Chicago, Phoenix, a magnet for Canadian visitors, and Denver.

The details aren't buried in some secret database. Canada has been posting public COVID-19 exposure alerts online for flights, trains and cruise ships throughout the pandemic.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/latest-travel-health-advice/exposure-flights-cruise-ships-mass-gatherings.html

Flights are listed as soon as authorities receive word of a positive test of a recent traveler, regardless of where and when they might have been infected, factors that are hard to pinpoint in most COVID-19 cases.

The publicly available details on COVID-19 on Canada flights, which includes flight date; airline; flight number; origin and destination; and, where available, row numbers because passengers seated within a few rows of an infected passenger are most susceptible to exposure, are in stark contrast to disclosures about impacted flights in the United States.

The CDC has revealed little information on the scope of COVID exposure on flights except to release, when requested, the number of affected flights. The latest tally: more than 4,000 flights within and into the United States. 

That number has more than doubled since August and compares with infectious disease investigations on just 150 flights in each of 2019 and 2018.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10752 on: January 16, 2021, 06:26:27 PM »
If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous


But what if there is accumulative damage with each reinfection?

 What about the age bias? Covid hits harder the older you are. Reinfections happen on more vulnerable subjects every year.

Last but not least. Mutation.

Covid 19 is not even close to being endemic yet. Once everyone is in this cycle, SARS-CoV-2 will be mutating at a rate order of magnitudes greater than it is now. In a world with an endemic SARS-CoV-2, many mutations will be harmless and some will cause massive death spikes in particular locations.


All because people are afraid of wearing masks or getting a vaccine. That is not acceptable.

And that does not even address the fact that serious lung damage is showing up on the x-rays of 70% of those who had mild cases.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10753 on: January 16, 2021, 07:11:28 PM »
I mostly ignore the original poll on this thread, but it's been a year (13-14 months?) from when the epidemic started with 'reported' worldwide COVID-19 deaths exceeding 2 million, and with probably an additional 1 million of 'related' deaths, aka (additional) excess deaths, I had a look. Nearly half of us underestimated the long-term consequences.

The various threads on the ASI Forum do not tend to predict things very well, but there is a chance our 'average' will come to pass in this instance.  (In other words, I'm ready for the virus to die, disappear or otherwise become harmless.)
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sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10754 on: January 16, 2021, 11:18:38 PM »
Killing the old: Corrigan at wsws

"COVID-19 is out of control at Lakepointe Senior Care and Rehab Center in Clinton Township, Michigan."

“We don’t have a medical team here for COVID, and our facility is not adequate to take care of COVID-positive residents ... We can’t take care of patients with COVID. They are just sitting here until they die.”

“But last Wednesday [Jan 6] we had about 10 people in C wing test positive for COVID. They shut down the wing, and EMS came in and moved them all out of here. But by the next day they had to bring most of them back! They couldn’t find a place for them to go.”

"They just brought someone in today who was removed from here a week ago after testing positive, and he’s still coughing! They are even putting them in rooms with residents who don’t have COVID, because there’s nowhere else to put them."

"we’ve got staff walking around the building who are COVID-positive."

"As soon as someone dies, they bring new people in right away. They just say, ‘go ahead and bring them in the building, it doesn’t matter if people are dying, we need the beds filled"

 “a family stormed [Lakepointe] when their relative died after catching COVID here. He was COVID negative when he got here, but then he caught it here and he ended up dying. A young man threatened to kill everyone in the facility, and the police were called.”

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/01/16/covi-j15.html

sidd

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10755 on: January 17, 2021, 08:17:45 AM »
If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous


But what if there is accumulative damage with each reinfection?

 What about the age bias? Covid hits harder the older you are. Reinfections happen on more vulnerable subjects every year.


That is why we need to vaccinate the 60+ cohort fast. Once they are vaccinated there is no reason to keep up the restrictions as 2/3 of hopsitalizations and more than 2/3 of mortality is in that cohort. This will be done by April/May in Europe and America. Also, positive seasonality will kick in. Restrictions will be very quickly lifted at the end of spring. After that the general population will be vaccinated until autumn. This thing is almost gone, there is only 3-4 months left - much less than the 10 months since the start of lockdowns

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10756 on: January 17, 2021, 08:37:05 AM »
If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous


But what if there is accumulative damage with each reinfection?

 What about the age bias? Covid hits harder the older you are. Reinfections happen on more vulnerable subjects every year.


That is why we need to vaccinate the 60+ cohort fast. Once they are vaccinated there is no reason to keep up the restrictions as 2/3 of hopsitalizations and more than 2/3 of mortality is in that cohort. This will be done by April/May in Europe and America. Also, positive seasonality will kick in. Restrictions will be very quickly lifted at the end of spring. After that the general population will be vaccinated until autumn. This thing is almost gone, there is only 3-4 months left - much less than the 10 months since the start of lockdowns

Norway has some trouble with the vaccine.
Quote
The findings have prompted Norway to suggest that Covid-19 vaccines may be too risky for the very old and terminally ill, the most cautious statement yet from a European health authority.

The Norwegian Institute of Public Health judges that “for those with the most severe frailty, even relatively mild vaccine side effects can have serious consequences. For those who have a very short remaining life span anyway, the benefit of the vaccine may be marginal or irrelevant.”

Pfizer and BioNTech are working with the Norwegian regulator to investigate the deaths in Norway, Pfizer said in an e-mailed statement. The agency found that “the number of incidents so far is not alarming, and in line with expectations,” Pfizer said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/norway-vaccine-fatalities-among-people-75-and-older-rise-to-29

It seems to be only a problem for people who are really in bad conditions.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10757 on: January 17, 2021, 11:53:10 AM »
It seems to be only a problem for people who are really in bad conditions.

And these lives suddenly don't matter? Every life counts! Every life is sacred! Pfizer should be ashamed of itself for downplaying these 'incidents'!
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10758 on: January 17, 2021, 02:22:11 PM »
Neven, that’s very low level text book concern trolling.  Etienne obviously didn’t mean to say what you are attempting to imply he said. Please desist.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2021, 05:05:00 PM by Archimid »
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10759 on: January 17, 2021, 02:34:42 PM »
Never, That’s very low level text book concern trolling.  Estríenme obviously didn’t mean to say what you are attempting to imply he said. Please desist.

Agreed.  It should be used as a warning that the very frail should heed.  Just like the disease, the speed in which the vaccine was produced and administered is leading to new information almost daily.  Perhaps this will be similar to some other vaccines (i.e. varicella) which is not recommended for this demographic.

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10760 on: January 17, 2021, 04:30:26 PM »
I wouldn't say that it is trolling, and Pfizer is not the only one that should be ashamed.

Normal discussion should be possible. There is an issue with the vaccine and it is important to share the information.

Trolling is for me providing false information in order to achieve an objective.

Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55, so it is not a surprise that it can create problems for people that are almost at the end of their life, but the issue is that you need so many death before that the problem is identified.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10761 on: January 17, 2021, 04:41:23 PM »
The UK has just run an experiment on what happens when restrictions get relaxed. Its not pretty.

Week ending 7th December.

Isle of Wight 14.8 (positives per 100k per week)
Knowsley 97.4
Essex 225.3

Latest data (week ending 11th Jan)

Isle of Wight 1036.2
Knowsley 1328.4
Essex 466.3

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

This is what happened when restrictions got taken away after lockdown 2.
Isle of Wight was put in Tier 1, which is by no means restriction free. Infection jumped by a factor of 80 in 4 weeks. (last week infection in the Isle of Wight dropped, in the middle weeks it was doubling every 3 days)
Knowsley was put in Tier 2 as a "reward" for bringing its infection rate down a bit faster than elsewhere in the 2nd lockdown. As a result, it was the area with the highest infection in England last week.
Essex had the earliest post lockdown 2 clampdown of those 3 and it now has a much lower, though still horrendously high, rate than them, even though its also one of the areas worst hit by the B.1.1.7 variant.

Vaccinating just the over 60s does almost nothing to control spread and will only drop the pressure on hospitals by a half at most. Transmission from retired to working age adults is tiny. There are nowhere near enough working age people infected yet to seriously dent the rate at which the epidemic spreads when restrictions are relaxed. Attack rates of just 15% have been enough to cause widespread and prolonged serious degradations in care not just for COVID but for everything else too.

If the whole country gets given a Knowsley/Isle of Wight style "reward" of loose restrictions for vaccine progress in March, hospitals will be overflowing with under 60s inside a month. Half of IC patients are under 60. Its just one doubling or somewhat under a week of lifted restrictions to fill that up.


Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10762 on: January 17, 2021, 04:46:17 PM »
Never, That’s very low level text book concern trolling.  Estríenme obviously didn’t mean to say what you are attempting to imply he said. Please desist.

I know Etienne didn't mean to say that, but that's the reaction you get when you say that it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19. When Pfizer says the same thing about the vaccine, no problemo.

Apologies for the sarcasm. No offense meant to Etienne.
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10763 on: January 17, 2021, 05:05:44 PM »
I wouldn't say that it is trolling, and Pfizer is not the only one that should be ashamed.

Normal discussion should be possible. There is an issue with the vaccine and it is important to share the information.

Trolling is for me providing false information in order to achieve an objective.

Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55, so it is not a surprise that it can create problems for people that are almost at the end of their life, but the issue is that you need so many death before that the problem is identified.


No need to be ashamed...we all wanted a vaccine so now we have one. And we are vaccinating the elderly first to relief the pressure on the health care system.

Plus you can´t leave people out. Quite a lot of the Norway cases were in the really frail old. These are mixed in with the slightly less frail ones in the same care homes. No all deaths close in time actually have a causal relation with the vaccine.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10764 on: January 17, 2021, 05:12:42 PM »
Quote
but that's the reaction you get when you say that it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19

No. That's the reaction you get when you say we should do nothing about C19 because "it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19".

C19 do kill mostly older people with comorbidities, and we should stop the world to save them, if only because we will eventually be old and with comorbidities. But the losses are very real.

Those of you that guided places like the US and Brazil into letting hundreds of thousands of their people die should be ashamed. Instead, you are pretending you were right?

Apologies I'll accept. Especially now that can still make a difference. Anyone can be wrong at any time. Blaming others or deflecting fault? That's low.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10765 on: January 17, 2021, 05:22:34 PM »
Those of you that guided places like the US and Brazil into letting hundreds of thousands of their people die should be ashamed. Instead, you are pretending you were right?

I hope that ´guided´ is some translation oddity otherwise you should see a shrink. A small website does not influence those countries plus remember who the presidents are/were? 
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10766 on: January 17, 2021, 05:54:45 PM »
Distinct Patterns of Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Variants including N501Y in Clinical Samples in Columbus Ohio
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.12.426407v1.full

Abstract

Following the worldwide emergence of the p.Asp614Gly shift in the Spike (S) gene of SARS-CoV-2, there have been few recurring pathogenic shifts occurring during 2020, as assessed by genomic sequencing. This situation has evolved in the last several months with the emergence of several distinct variants (first identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa, respectively) that illustrate multiple changes in the S gene, particularly p.Asn501Tyr (N501Y), that likely have clinical impact.

We report here the emergence in Columbus, Ohio in December 2020 of two novel SARS-CoV-2 clade 20C/G variants.

One isolate, that has become the predominant virus found in nasopharyngeal swabs in the December 2020-January 2021 period, harbors S p.Gln677His, membrane glycoprotein (M) p.Ala85Ser (Q677H) and nucleocapsid (N) p.Asp377Tyr (D377Y) mutations.

The other isolate contains S N501Y and ORF8 Arg52Ile (R52I), which are two markers of the UK-B.1.1.7 (clade 20I/501Y.V1) strain, but lacks all other mutations from that virus. It is also from a different clade and shares multiple mutations with the clade 20C/G viruses circulating in Ohio prior to December 2020.

These two SARS-CoV-2 viruses emerging now in the United States add to the diversity of S gene shifts occurring worldwide and support multiple independent acquisition of S N501Y (in likely contrast to the unitary S D614G shift) occurring first during this period of the pandemic.


------------------------------------------

The Odd Structure of ORF8: Mapping the Coronavirus Protein Linked to Disease Severity
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-odd-orf8-coronavirus-protein-linked.html

... "Coronaviruses mutate differently than viruses like influenza or HIV, which quickly accumulate many little changes through a process called hypermutation. In coronaviruses, big chunks of nucleic acids sometimes move around through recombination," explained Hurley. When this happens, big, new regions of proteins can appear. Genetic analyses conducted very early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic revealed that this new strain had evolved from a coronavirus that infects bats, and that a significant recombination mutation had occurred in the area of the genome that codes for a protein, called ORF7, found in many coronaviruses. The new form of ORF7, named ORF8, quickly gained the attention of virologists and epidemiologists because significant genetic divergence events like the one seen for ORF8 are often the cause of a new strain's virulence.

"Basically, this mutation caused the protein to double in size, and the stuff that doubled was not related to any known fold," added Hurley. "There's a core of about half of it that's related to a known fold type in a solved structure from earlier coronaviruses, but the other half was completely new."


A ribbon diagram rendering of the ORF8 structure, which is composed of two protein units with identical amino acid sequence and shape that are connected by a sulfur-sulfur bond

Currently, there are several investigations underway focused on how ORF8 interacts with cell receptors and how it interacts with antibodies, as infected individuals appear to produce antibodies that bind to ORF8 in addition to antibodies specific to the virus's surface proteins.

Thomas G. Flower et al, Structure of SARS-CoV-2 ORF8, a rapidly evolving immune evasion protein, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/2/e2021785118

... The accessory protein ORF8 is one of the most rapidly evolving betacoronavirus proteins. While ORF8 expression is not strictly essential for SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 replication, a 29-nucleotide deletion (Δ29) that occurred early in human to human transmission of SARS-CoV, splitting ORF8 into ORF8a and ORF8b, is correlated with milder disease. A 382-nucleotide deletion (Δ382) in SARS-CoV-2 (9, 10) was also found to correlate with milder disease and a lower incidence of hypoxia (11).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10767 on: January 17, 2021, 08:59:00 PM »
Quote
but that's the reaction you get when you say that it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19

No. That's the reaction you get when you say we should do nothing about C19 because "it's mostly old people with comorbidities who die because of COVID-19".

C19 do kill mostly older people with comorbidities, and we should stop the world to save them, if only because we will eventually be old and with comorbidities. But the losses are very real.

Those of you that guided places like the US and Brazil into letting hundreds of thousands of their people die should be ashamed. Instead, you are pretending you were right?

Apologies I'll accept. Especially now that can still make a difference. Anyone can be wrong at any time. Blaming others or deflecting fault? That's low.

Which begs the question, should we vaccinate older people with comorbidities or run the risk of them getting COVID? 

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10768 on: January 17, 2021, 09:14:40 PM »
Epidemiology of post-COVID syndrome following hospitalisation with coronavirus: a retrospective cohort study

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full-text

The study looks at what happened to everyone admitted to hospital during the first wave in England, and compares outcomes for about 5 months afterwards with a matched cohort. There is quite significant long term health damage associated with having been in hospital for COVID.

Quote
766 (95% confidence interval: 753 to 779) readmissions and 320 (312 to 328) deaths per 1,000 person-years were observed in COVID-19 cases, 3.5 (3.4 to 3.6) and 7.7 (7.2 to 8.3) times greater, respectively, than in controls.

Quote
Of 47,780 individuals in hospital with COVID-19 over the study period, 29.4% were re-admitted and 12.3% died following discharge

Thats about 5000 excess deaths.

Quote
Respiratory disease was diagnosed in 14,140 individuals (29.6%) following discharge, with 6,085 of these being new-onset cases; the resulting event rates of 770 (758 to 783) and 539 (525 to 553) per 1,000 person-years, respectively, were 6.0 (5.7 to 6.2) and 27.3 (24.0 to 31.2) times greater than those in controls.

More likely to have an existing respiratory problem recur, and much more likely to acquire a new one.

Quote
Those with COVID-19 received post-discharge diagnoses of MACE, CLD, CKD and diabetes 3.0 (2.7 to 3.2), 2.8 (2.0 to 4.0), 1.9 (1.7 to 2.1) and 1.5 (1.4 to 1.6) times more frequently, respectively, than in the matched control group.

More likely to suffer from heart, liver, kidney problems as well as acquire diabetes. It doesn't mess up the other organs at the same rate as the lungs, but it messes them up.

Quote
Individuals requiring ICU admission experienced greater rates of post-discharge respiratory disease and diabetes than those not in ICU, but the opposite was true for rates of death, readmission and MACE.

Its not just those that were in ICU having all the problems afterwards.

Quote
Rates of all post-discharge adverse events were greater in individuals with COVID-19 aged ≥ 70 years than <70 years, while rates of all events other than diabetes were greater in the White ethnic group than the Non-White group (Supplementary Table 4). However, the rate ratio of adverse events (contrasting COVID-19 cases and matched controls) was greater in individuals aged <70 years than ≥ 70 years for all event types (Figure 3), with the biggest differences in rate ratios being observed for death (14.1 [11.0 to 18.3] for <70 years versus 7.7 [7.1 to 8.3] for ≥ 70 years) and respiratory disease (10.5 [9.7 to 11.4] for <70 years versus 4.6 [4.3 to 4.8] for ≥ 70 years).

In absolute terms, long covid hit the older patients harder, but in relative terms, its the younger ones who have the most elevated risk.


vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10769 on: January 17, 2021, 09:49:59 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10770 on: Today at 01:10:56 AM »
At the moment, my main concern is the damage to the lungs regardless of the severity of the illness.

First time around, Covid is doing significant damage to organs, not lethal in itself, but damaging and slow to heal.

Second time around, the damaged organs get hit again, surely that second round of damage will increase the chances of death in all age groups??????
And this bears out to be true, each time someone catches Covid, the damage increases.

I am probably wrong in my thinking or that the body will heal the damage within the immunity period so it means very little.

But in my mind, that is what I would be focusing on over the next year or so.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10771 on: Today at 01:55:26 AM »
At the moment, my main concern is the damage to the lungs regardless of the severity of the illness.

First time around, Covid is doing significant damage to organs, not lethal in itself, but damaging and slow to heal.

Second time around, the damaged organs get hit again, surely that second round of damage will increase the chances of death in all age groups??????
And this bears out to be true, each time someone catches Covid, the damage increases.

I am probably wrong in my thinking or that the body will heal the damage within the immunity period so it means very little.

But in my mind, that is what I would be focusing on over the next year or so.

Persons who have recovered but suffered organ damage (young and old; healthy or with commorbidities) will have shorter lives as a result and likely require more healthcare as they age. The impact of this pandemic will be with us for decades.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10772 on: Today at 07:15:08 AM »
Pfizer is not the only ones that should be ashamed, but also the people who organize vaccination without extended testing. If I'm right, Vaccines had only been tested on healthy people under 55,

You're wrong:

"The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,661 participants to date, 41,135 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate as of November 13, 2020. Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age"

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine