Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences

[Tom_Mazanec]

Shared Humanity, you linked household debt for state and local government debt.
And what about liabilities of 150+ trillion dollars?

[sidd]

Re: Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and the total in these securites is larger than the residential equivalent in 2008

Cite ?

sidd

[kassy]

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

[Shared Humanity]

Shared Humanity, you linked household debt for state and local government debt.
And what about liabilities of 150+ trillion dollars?

Whoops!

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11502#:~:text=Federal%20Reserve%20data%20indicate%20that,%243.05%20trillion%20in%20outstanding%20debt.

[Shared Humanity]

Re: Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and the total in these securites is larger than the residential equivalent in 2008

Cite ?

sidd

Trying to but I may have been talking out of my ass. 


Total MBS chart as of 2019...The market for MBS products has grown from $9.467 trillion in 2008 to $10.308 trillion in 2019.

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fixed-income-chart/

Data on RMBS from 2008 crisis...Of the $9.467 trillion of MBS securities in 2008, $5.22 trillion or 55% was residential MBS and this was the product that triggered the financial crisis.

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/research-summary/mortgage-backed-securities-and-the-financial-crisis-of-2008-a-post-mortem/

Can't seem to find data that supports my claim that CMBS is larger now than RMBS was in 2008 (I'll keep trying) but the MBS market in total is definitely being impacted by COVID.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/coronavirus-jolts-cmbs-pricing-and-2020-issuance-expectations-57965361

And the MBS market hasn't collapsed like it did in 2008 because the Feds started buying this shit and now owns $2 trillion or 20% of the marketable MBS.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

In fact, the Feds went all in on the markets in March of this year as can be seen in the chart below. What needs to be understood is that, prior to 2008, the Feds had never held any assets long term. They did purchase and sell treasuries overnight in order to provide needed liquidity in the Repo market. A functioning Repo market is essential to provide liquidity to banks.

I will restate my position made earlier. The world economy has never recovered from the debt crisis of 2008. Debt has, in fact, grown dramatically since then.

[Bruce Steele]

SH, The description at the top of the chart is talking trillions but the y axis is labeled “ millions  “ ? 

[Shared Humanity]

SH, The description at the top of the chart is talking trillions but the y axis is labeled “ millions  “ ?

It is confusing the way it is labeled. If you look at the label at the bottom of the chart, it is total assets in millions of dollars. So the y axis is 6 or 7 millions of millions or 7 trillion.

Here is link to chart.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

[Rodius]

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

[Gerntocratis#1]

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.

[Rodius]

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.

Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/diamond-princess

[Gerntocratis#1]

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.

Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/diamond-princess

How is that possible? This article says the longest case recorded so far is 61 days, yet there's supposedly 40 people who have it still after 8 months?

https://www.newsweek.com/viral-shedding-covid-longest-period-contagious-1536387

[Rodius]

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.

Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/diamond-princess

How is that possible? This article says the longest case recorded so far is 61 days, yet there's supposedly 40 people who have it still after 8 months?

https://www.newsweek.com/viral-shedding-covid-longest-period-contagious-1536387

Well, I don't know.
Either a newspaper is wrong or the people tracking the virus are wrong.
The information is sourced from the WHO and other sources.... links given at the base of the site.

I would deep dive into this more but I am short on time... of others don't double check this by tomorrow, I will do it.

[gerontocrat]

Re the above...

There are a good few people who are still in hospital months after infection. They may not have the virus, but they are too ill to leave hospital. I do not know if they are still shown as active cases.

[Gerntocratis#1]

Re the above...

There are a good few people who are still in hospital months after infection. They may not have the virus, but they are too ill to leave hospital. I do not know if they are still shown as active cases.

This makes the most sense, as covid does cause failure in many organs of the human body. However, I don't know if they should continue to be listed as an active case if the virus isn't active in their body. They should have another category for people suffering long-term consequences while the virus is no longer active.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Explained: What is a technical recession?
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/what-is-a-technical-recession-indian-economy-coronavirus-7049758/

Latest RBI bulletin projects contraction for a second consecutive quarter, which means the economy is in a ‘technical recession’. What does it mean, and how is it different from a ‘recession’ and a ‘recessionary phase’?

Coronavirus: What is a recession and how could it affect me?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-recession-could-affect-134520856.html

The recession is over. The UK saw the best economic growth on record. But times are still hard, and the economy is not actually doing that well.
How can all these things be true at the same time, and why does it matter?

ECB member explains why this recession is very different from any other
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/covid-crisis-is-very-different-from-previous-crisis-ecb-schnabel-says.html

The current crisis hinges on the services industry, which has almost come to halt.
ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted in a speech that “a large number of people who lost their jobs in the spring left the labour force and stopped looking for work.”
In addition, the ECB is concerned with how the coronavirus crisis is hitting different parts of the population.

Second lockdown in Europe
https://claudiograss.ch/2020/11/second-lockdown-in-europe/

As the long-awaited “second wave” of the corona pandemic sweeps through Europe, another round of severe restrictions, travel bans and rules that prevent the proper function of international business and trade threatens to once again disrupt all kinds of sectors, including the gold industry.

A Global "Debt Mountain": Beware of This "New Peak"
https://www2.elliottwave.com/affiliates_pr/archives/2020/11/12/A-Global-Debt-Mountain-Beware-of-This-New-Peak-aa.aspx

A global "debt mountain" has hit a new peak.
Getting back to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, that alarming episode may have only been a preview of what's next.
It does appear that an "epic" deflation is likely.

Coronavirus resurgence threatens U.S. states' revenue gains
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-states/coronavirus-resurgence-threatens-u-s-states-revenue-gains-idUSL1N2HX2CV

After a few months of improved tax collections, U.S. states’ revenues could fall again as the coronavirus resurges across the nation and negotiations over additional federal economic aid remain at an impasse.

The Long Dark Winter Has Arrived. Why Weren’t We Prepared?
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-long-dark-winter-has-arrived-why-werent-we-prepared

New U.S. cases topped 150,000 for the first time, and hospitalizations hit another all-time high according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. death toll surpassed 242,000 as more than 900 new fatalities were reported.
California became the second state in the country after Texas to surpass one million total cases.
New York City public schools could close as soon as Monday. School districts nationwide are split on closing plans.
Ohio and Minnesota each topped 7,000 daily cases for the first time since the pandemic began, while Pennsylvania and Indiana reported more than 6,000 cases in a day,

Sorry, Larry Kudlow: Raising Taxes In A Recession Can Make Sense
https://www.forbes.com/sites/taxnotes/2020/11/12/sorry-larry-kudlow-raising-taxes-in-a-recession-can-make-sense/?sh=48394d037dbb

To be sure, Keynes was generally inclined to cut taxes, rather than raise them, in the face of economic contractions; along with increased spending, that sort of expansionary fiscal policy was a good way to boost aggregate demand. But Keynes also argued — in various works, including The General Theory — that specific tax increases might also be used to speed recovery rather than slow it.

[kassy]

So cute to see you two together. 

These cases are ongoing but due to time we know they are not active due to viral shedding.
So you include them if you want to work out the hospital burden (long time care cases, bet these are all passengers).

[oren]

Working from home meant that many people were saving on everyday costs such as travel, lunch, clothes and cleaning, as well as possibly spending less on socializing. However, the report also said it meant remote workers were "contributing less to the infrastructure of the economy whilst still receiving its benefits."

Templeman said remote workers should pay a levy post-pandemic "in order to smooth the transition process for those who have suddenly been displaced" by the coronavirus crisis.

I shudder at this. For years it was believed that teleworking will reduce unnecessary travel, and with it traffic jams and more importantly, GHG emissions and other pollutants. Now that by some "magic" event many people have finally switched to teleworking, the government is trying to tax them out of it.
In addition, since governments pay heavily for "unprofitable" traffic infrastructure, they actually save a lot if many are working from home permanently. So the rationale for this new tax is very poor too.

[kassy]

Some off topic posts removed.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Recession With a Difference: Women Face Special Burden
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/business/economy/women-jobs-economy-recession.html

Hit hard by job losses and the pandemic’s effect on schooling and child care, American women face short-term difficulties and long-term repercussions.

South Africa after Covid-19: Recovery or Recession
https://www.thecairoreview.com/book-reviews/south-africa-after-covid-19-recovery-or-recession/

South Africa has had a plethora of economic plans, but most have not been implemented

Low-Income Idahoans Suffering The Most From Pandemic Recession
https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/post/low-income-idahoans-suffering-most-pandemic-recession#stream/0

According to a new report from the Idaho Center for Fiscal Policy, nearly half of households that make less than $35,000 have seen at least some of their income dry up in the COVID-19 economy.

Fears of double-dip recession rise alongside COVID-19 cases
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/525951-fears-of-double-dip-recession-rise-alongside-covid-19-cases

A sharp spike in COVID-19 cases across the U.S. is threatening the economic recovery and increasing the odds of a double-dip recession.
Daily coronavirus infections surpassed 100,000 for the first time earlier this month; since then, they have surged past the 150,000 mark. At the same time, congressional leaders appear increasingly unlikely to strike a deal on another COVID-19 relief package, even as another round of key unemployment benefits is set to expire in the coming weeks.
Economists across the political spectrum have consistently warned that sustained growth is dependent on getting the coronavirus under control, with many now viewing the rise in infections with heightened concern.

And to help you get through this recession/depression:

3 Recession Proof Stocks to Buy Now
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/16/3-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/

Investors worried about a recession should consider leading stocks in the utilities, basic consumer goods, and healthcare sectors.

Why Creativity Is Key During a Recession
https://musebycl.io/musings/why-creativity-key-during-recession

We've been here before. Don't play it safe

[Grubbegrabben]

China’s ‘Secret Weapon’ Against COVID-19 Won’t Work for Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery
The CCP was able to mobile its people to fight COVID-19. It’s having a harder time convincing Chinese to spend money

https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/chinas-secret-weapon-against-covid-19-wont-work-for-post-pandemic-economic-recovery/

Because of the lockdown, China transformed itself from the first COVID-19 epicenter to one of the first countries to bring the pandemic under control. As China slowly lifted the lockdown, the government switched its emphasis to economic recovery.
...
the Chinese government tried to repeat the success of its COVID-19 management experience and launched two mobilization efforts. However, the two mobilization efforts, aimed at boosting consumption and reducing unemployment, have failed to recreate the success of the CCP’s COVID-19 containment measures.

[vox_mundi]

Walmart Reports Shortages of Toilet Paper and Cleaning Supplies at Some Stores
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/17/business/walmart-toilet-paper-grocery-stores/index.html

Shoppers are once again loading up on paper goods and cleaning supplies in areas of the United States hard hit by rising coronavirus infections, leading to empty shelves at some Walmart stores.

Officials at Walmart (WMT), the largest retailer in the country, said Tuesday that supply chains have not kept up with rising demand, and these goods have been harder to stock consistently in locations with sharp spikes in new virus cases. ... "The specific categories where we have the most strain at the present time would be bath tissue and cleaning supplies."

The retailer also recently resumed counting the number of customers inside its stores as a safety precaution.

Several other leading grocery chains have reimposed limits on toilet paper, paper towels and disinfecting wipes, hoping to keep their shelves stocked.

At Kroger (KR), customers can purchase a maximum of two items when it comes to products like bath tissue, paper towels, disinfecting wipes and hand soap. Giant, a grocery chain in the Northeast, recently put a limit of one on purchases of larger toilet paper and paper towel sizes and four on smaller toilet paper and paper towel sizes.

Around 21% of paper products such as toilet paper and paper towels and 16% of household cleaning products were out of stock during the week ending November 15, according to data from market research firm IRI. Typically, around 5% of products are out of stock.

[Bruce Steele]

Voxmundi, I do the shopping and today the toilet paper and paper towel shelves were mostly empty. The other thing that is unobtainium are quart canning jars.  I mean none , anywhere. Lids are hard to find also. I wonder whether the garden seed companies will keep up next spring? Hint hint I think getting next years gardens seeds better get done soon.
 Food preservation is pretty basic stuff, how well are people prepared ?

https://www.post-gazette.com/life/dining/2020/10/15/shortage-Mason-canning-jars-Pittsburgh-COVID-19-Pasqualinos-Bridge-City-Brinery/stories/202010150014

[Tom_Mazanec]

Covid-19 pandemic is the first time 40% of Americans have experienced food insecurity
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/covid-pandemic-first-time-many-americans-experienced-food-insecurity.html

About half of those polled say they’ve struggled to afford food, while 37% report skipping meals themselves so there was enough food for their children to eat. Yet 63% said they didn’t realize they were experiencing food insecurity, which is generally defined as when an individual doesn’t have reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable food.

Negative Office Absorption Will Be Worse Than In the Great Recession
https://www.globest.com/2020/11/19/negative-office-absorption-will-be-worse-than-in-the-great-recession/?slreturn=20201020072432

Office landlords will continue to hemorrhage space over the next couple of quarters.
NAIOP expects office net absorption to be negative 18 million square feet in Q4 2020 and negative 10 million square feet in Q1 2021, a downgrade from its prior office demand forecast. Already, office net absorption contracted 50.7 million square feet in the first three quarters of 2020, according to CBRE.
Add the 50.7 million square feet contracted already with 28 million expected to be lost in Q4 and Q1 and the office market could be looking at a contraction that is more severe than the one experienced during the global financial crisis of 2008, according to NAIOP.

Colombia in recession for the first time since 1999
https://en.mercopress.com/2020/11/18/colombia-in-recession-for-the-first-time-since-1999

Colombia entered in recession for the first time since 1999 due to the paralysis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, after registering for the second consecutive quarter a contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Latin America’s fourth economy contracted 9% in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2019, although the crash was less than -15.8% recorded between April and June, the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) said Tuesday in a virtual presentation to the media.

Fed’s Kaplan says double-dip recession is a possibility
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-kaplan-says-double-dip-recession-is-a-possibility-11605812995

Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan said Thursday the economy was slowing and a double-dip recession is possible given the renewed strength of the coronavirus and people slowing down their activity.

Double Dip Recession Is On The Horizon: Harrison
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390509-double-dip-recession-is-on-horizon-harrison

A double-dip recession in the U.S. is now the base case for the end of this year and going into early next year.
Jobless claims data, which rose today, is the first sign of trouble ahead; the numbers are getting worse and it’s possible the economy won’t just roll over but contract.
December is a month to watch as deadlines approach for the fiscal cliff and the expiration of the CARES Act and the Fed’s emergency lending programs.
Despite these looming threats, financial markets aren’t telegraphing distress, which suggests that investors believe the Fed will ride to the rescue.

[Sigmetnow]

November 20 coronavirus news
Canada's largest city is going into lockdown for at least 28 days

Toronto, Canada's biggest city, is going into lockdown for at least 28 days to limit the spread of Covid-19, according to a news release from the Office of the Premier of Ontario published Friday.

The lockdown will go into effect Monday and it includes Peel Region, which is part of the Greater Toronto Area.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said in the news release that Covid-19 numbers are "rising rapidly in certain regions," adding the lockdown will protect "hospitals, long-term care and retirement homes, and every person in this province." ... 

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-11-20-20-intl/


—— U.S.
The Fed started propping up the markets last fall.  But now the Trump administration wants to assure Biden inherits a failing economy.
The US economy is about to shrink, JPMorgan warns

The Treasury Department added to the mess Thursday by yanking $455 billion of funds the Federal Reserve was using for emergency lending programs. The Fed issued a statement opposing the move, marking a rare public dispute between the central bank and Treasury Department -— in the middle of a crisis, no less. … This is a bizarre time to remove ammo the Fed is using to fight the crisis.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/economy/economy-coronavirus-jpmorgan/index.html

[Tom_Mazanec]

Spanish banks merge as economic outlook darkens
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/finance/spanish-banks-merge-as-economic-outlook-darkens

A wave of mergers is sweeping across the Spanish banking sector as lenders face up to a pandemic-induced recession, ultralow interest rates and growing competition from financial technology startups.

Biden team, pushing quick stimulus deal, Prepares for renewed recession
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/business/economy/biden-coronavirus-stimulus-recession.html
Note: I've used up my free articles, so I can't quote.

Banks didn’t cause this recession, but they won’t escape it either
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/11/22/colorado-banks-recession-mortgages-loans/

Branch closures, heavy loan activity and future defaults are issues Colorado banks have had to face this year

In Coronavirus Recession, the Out-of-Work Turn to GoFundMe
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-coronavirus-recession-the-out-of-work-turn-to-gofundme-11605954600

More than $100 million pours in as people increasingly use website for help with groceries and rent

But what happens when charity fatigue sets in?

If you want to grasp at straws as you tread water:
Could The End Of The Recession Be Closer Than We Think?

There are lots of reasons to worry. The third wave continues to get worse, and none of the good news is guaranteed. When we take the outside view, however, and look at the data rather than the headlines, the outlook is much better over time. We can’t ignore the damage and the human tragedy of what is happening now. But, equally, we should not ignore the positive signs that say we are still moving forward and that, on many fronts, things are better now—and will be better still in the future—than they seem.

Nigeria slumps back into recession as Covid bites
https://www.ft.com/content/ea70f0b4-5f13-423b-b1ed-6d6c424d1b91

Africa’s biggest economy has sunk into its second recession in less than five years, battered by the oil price crash brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

G20 leaders tackle coronavirus crisis, global recession
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/21/g20-leaders-to-discuss-coronavirus-crisis-global-recession

Alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change is one of the main themes to be discussed at the Saudi-hosted G20 summit.

But hey, at least the Food Banks have a greater selection of food than our great-grandparents' soup kitchens! 

[Tom_Mazanec]

Hyperinflationary Great Depression Coming – John Williams
https://usawatchdog.com/hyperinflationary-great-depression-coming-john-williams/

Williams expects to see some very large inflation because of all the stimulus coming and predicts, “The more left we go, the more rapid will be the demise of the dollar.  Eventually, it will be a hyperinflation in the United States.  What I am looking at here is this evolving into a hyperinflationary Great Depression.  To save yourself, you have to preserve your wealth, your dollar assets.  To do that, you have to convert your dollars into physical gold and silver, precious metals and just hold them.  They will retain value over time as opposed to paper dollars that will effectively become worthless.  You’ll be getting a lot of money from the government, and they will keep giving you more and more and more, but that’s going to be an environment of rising and rising inflation.  It’s not necessarily going to buy you more. . . . Hyperinflation will bring political disruption. . . . Hyperinflation is a form of default.  Gold is telling us hyperinflation is straight ahead of us.”

Millions of Americans Expect to Lose Their Homes as Covid Rages
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-americans-expect-lose-homes-212124538.html

Millions of Americans expect to face eviction by the end of this year, adding to the suffering inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic raging across the U.S.
About 5.8 million adults say they are somewhat to very likely to face eviction or foreclosure in the next two months, according to a survey completed Nov. 9 by the U.S. Census Bureau. That accounts for a third of the 17.8 million adults in households that are behind on rent or mortgage payments.

Great Inflation Debate: When and How Big?
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/great-inflation-debate-when-and-how-big

The market is starting to see a Fed hike on the distant horizon. This is how a shift in thinking begins. The driving reason for this change seems to be a resurgence of inflation over booming real growth.

America’s Economy Cannot Survive Another Lockdown, And The Cult Of The Reset Knows It
https://www.birchgold.com/news/americas-economy-cannot-survive-lockdown/

The U.S. economy has been on the verge of collapse for at least a decade, ever since the crash of 2008 and the subsequent explosion in fiat stimulus from the Federal Reserve. While the mainstream media has always claimed that central bankers “saved” us from another Great Depression, what they actually did was set us up for a far worse scenario — a stagflationary implosion of our society.

‘Southeast has just been hammered’: Economists try to see what’s ahead for Alaska’s pandemic recession
https://www.alaskapublic.org/2020/11/22/southeast-has-just-been-hammered-economists-try-to-see-whats-ahead-for-alaskas-pandemic-recession/

The COVID-19 pandemic came at a particularly rough time for Alaska. The state was just beginning to climb out of its recession from the 2015 oil-crash, and Fried said everyone expected that growth to continue this year — especially in the tourism industry
Instead, as the pandemic unfolded and shut down the tourism season, businesses closed and a record number of Alaskans found themselves out of work.

UK risks double-dip recession amid second Covid lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/23/uk-double-dip-recession-second-covid-lockdown

Economy shrinks as service sector suffers steepest fall in activity since May

EDIT: Few more on inflation
Inflation May Be About to Pick Up Sharply
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-may-pick-sharply-060002710.html

It may seem strange to be worried about inflation in the midst of a global recession, a pandemic and huge political ructions in the U.S., but I strongly suspect that it’s about to pick up both soon and sharply. How fast this happens depends on how quickly the developed world recovers over the next few months, but pressures are building. As has been the case for many years, global inflation has “Made in Asia” stamped all over it. This time, though, that’s likely to be compounded by much greater supply constraints in the economy.

High inflation in times of Covid-19 will hit us hard
https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/high-inflation-in-times-of-covid-19-will-hit-us-hard-918475.html

In October 2020, inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), stood at 7.61%. This is the highest inflation level since March 2014, when it was at 7.63%. Let’s look at this issue in all its dimensions.

Lessons from Japan: coping with low rates and inflation after the pandemic
https://www.ft.com/content/da9086f7-bfa5-4d1c-83d0-bea5fe41945d

Fearing prolonged stagnation, governments are looking to Tokyo’s experience during the past three decades   

[The Walrus]

And yet, the economy keeps growing stronger.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/europes-economy-set-to-contract-again-as-lockdowns-bite-11606130016

[vox_mundi]

[Tom_Mazanec]

KAMI Says Govt Unable to Contain Pandemic and Economic Recession
https://en.tempo.co/read/1409047/kami-says-govt-unable-to-contain-pandemic-and-economic-recession

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Save Indonesia Coalition (KAMI) expressed concern over the government's inability to contain the Covid-19 pandemic and economic recession.
“The pandemic has not yet subsided as of November. There is not even a sign that it will end,” said KAMI Presidium Rochmat Wahab in a webinar on Thursday, November 26, 2020.

Evictions and a recession are looming so Congress needs to pull off a rescue package, Moodys’ Mark Zandi says
https://www.inquirer.com/business/biden-trump-congress-stimulus-evictions-covid-20201126.html

Job number one for the incoming Biden administration is to contain the raging COVID-19 pandemic and provide support for the tens of millions of Americans whose finances are being wrecked by the virus. The recent results from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials are hopeful, but they mean little to the families and small businesses struggling to make it until vaccines are distributed.

Unsanitized: No Double Dip Recession for the Millions in Depression
https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-no-double-dip-recession-for-millions-in-depression/

Reduced demand and lack of stimulus may harm the overall economy, but some are already there. This is The COVID-19 Daily Report for November 24, 2020.

Lessons from the Great Recession for a COVID-19 Green Recovery
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/great-recession-covid-19-green-recovery-coronavirus-stimulus-package-environmnet-climate-change/

The COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in a new wave of green stimulus policies to both tackle climate change and rebuild the global economy.
In 2008 after the global recession, governments around the world launched major economic packages to reboot their economies.
A new research paper from the World Resources Institue shows that there are many lessons we can learn.

UK cuts overseas aid amid worst recession in over 300 years
https://www.foxnews.com/world/uk-overseas-aid-amid-worst-recession-300-years

The British government faced fury Wednesday over its decision to ditch its long-standing target for overseas aid to finance other spending priorities in the wake of what it described as the deepest recession in over three centuries.

Britain's final Brexit choice could prolong the worst recession in 300 years
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/25/economy/brexit-rishi-sunak-uk-economy-coronavirus/index.html

The UK economy is suffering its worst recession in more than 300 years and failing to secure a new trade deal with the European Union will make its recovery even longer and more arduous, according to the country's independent fiscal watchdog.

Jobless aid for nearly 14 million Americans to expire the day after Christmas
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-benefits-expire/jobless-aid-for-nearly-14-million-americans-to-expire-the-day-after-christmas-idUSKBN2852Y4

As of Nov. 7, the most recent data available, a total of 13.7 million people were receiving unemployment benefits through emergency CARES Act-related programs expiring Dec. 26. That is up from 13.1 million for the week ending Oct. 31.

[The Walrus]

Research focusing on past (only) global pandemic in recent times shows large short-term economic impacts.  Lives were changed forever.  The economy recovered and rebounded stronger than ever.  This occurred during a time before vaccinations and government aid to those affected.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

[Sigmetnow]

11/26/20, 3:24 PM
“Judging by the nearly complete lack of traffic on the east coast, it seems like people are, for the most part, staying home for #Thanksgiving.
Good job, America.”
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/1332057587085422592
⬇️ Image below.

[Tom_Mazanec]

India is headed for a technical recession — and the road to recovery will be long, analysts say
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/india-second-quarter-gdp-results-recovery-will-take-time.html

India has a "very, very long" distance to go toward a full recovery or even trying to recover the growth that had been lost in the last six months, according to JPMorgan's chief emerging markets economist Jahangir Aziz.
Economists in a Reuters poll predicted that India's economy shrunk 8.8% in the September quarter.
The Reserve Bank of India last month said manufacturing — particularly consumer non-durables, and some categories of services like passenger vehicles and railway freights — have gradually recovered in the second quarter.

The World’s First Affluence Recession
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/27/world-first-affluence-recession-covid-pandemic-poverty-economic-impact/

The pandemic is making Americans poor—precisely because of the way they were rich.

Charting the Global Economy: Recession Recovery Is Wildly Uneven
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-27/charting-the-global-economy-recession-recovery-is-wildly-uneven

Manufacturing looks solid, labor market is a major weak point
 But vaccine could help the staying power of the 2021 rebound

India suffers first recession in decades
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/economy/india-recession/index.html

India has plunged into recession for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century as the pandemic continues to weigh heavily on Asia's third biggest economy, which economists warn will struggle to recover from the slump.
Official data published on Friday showed gross domestic product for the July-September quarter fell by 7.5% compared to the same period last year, when the economy was growing by more than 4%.
That follows a record drop of nearly 24% in GDP in the April-June period, the first quarter of India's fiscal year.

Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy
https://www2.elliottwave.com/affiliates_pr/archives/2020/11/27/Look-at-These-2-Big-Warning-Signs-for-the-US-Economy-aa.aspx

Interestingly, this economic measure's "retracement of the decline from February is a Fibonacci 61%"

No Thanksgiving Cheer for the Unemployed
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/no-thanksgiving-cheer-for-the-unemployed

Unless there is a deal, about 12 million people will lose all their unemployment benefits in December.
Bankruptcies, evictions, and foreclosures will soar.
I expect a deal, but it will not be the all encompassing deal that Democrats want.

Global Inflation watch
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/global-inflation-watch

This article posits that fiat currencies are on the path to hyperinflation and looks at the evidence in the prices of financial assets and commodities. So far, gold has notably underperformed, which indicates that the early signals of hyperinflation are confined to the cryptocurrencies, whose participants broadly understand fiat debasement, to equities reflecting the desire not to maintain cash and deposit balances, and in international trade, where commodity prices of all stripes have risen in price.

Q2 GDP Data: India is now officially in recession, but it isn't that bad
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/q2-gdp-data-india-is-now-officially-in-recession-but-it-isnt-that-bad/cheer-in-recession/slideshow/79458939.cms

India officially entered a technical recession as the economy contracted by 7.5% in the July-September quarter.
But it isn't that bad.
Reason: The economy performed better than most estimates and there was a partial recovery from the contraction of 23.9% in the previous quarter.

[Tom_Mazanec]

We have been kicking the can down the road on evictions all year, but we are about to run out of road...much more extension and landlords will be the ones going bankrupt.

Nearly 19 million Americans could lose their homes when eviction limits expire Dec. 31
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/eviction-19-million-americans-risk-moratorium-coronavirus/

A report issued this month from the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) and the University of Arizona estimates that 6.7 million households could be evicted in the coming months. That amounts to 19 million people potentially losing their homes, rivaling the dislocation that foreclosures caused after the subprime housing bust.

And they are the optimists:

We know how to prevent up to 40 million people from being evicted. It’s up to Congress to do it.
https://www.vox.com/21569601/eviction-moratorium-cdc-covid-19-congress-rental-assistance-rent-crisis

Millions of Americans face eviction in a “completely predictable and entirely preventable” crisis as the CDC’s moratorium is set to expire on New Year’s Eve.

Of course when Congress makes a joke it is the law, and when they make a law it is a joke.

Evictions have led to hundreds of thousands of additional Covid-19 cases, research finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/evictions-have-led-to-hundreds-of-thousands-of-extra-covid-cases-.html

Forty-three states, plus Washington, D.C., passed a ban during the coronavirus pandemic on evictions, which at one point were estimated would displace as many as 40 million people.
New research finds that when those bans lifted, cases of the virus surged.

Despite moratorium, evictions remain source of stress for vulnerable Valley residents
https://www.themonitor.com/2020/11/28/despite-moratorium-evictions-remain-source-stress-vulnerable-valley-residents/

Though about 300 evictions were filed in Cameron County, the CDCB estimates there were hundreds left without shelter. In Cameron County, the average number of people to a household is between three and four, according to the U.S. Census data.
Those who are displaced will likely see long-term repercussions.
“It doesn’t just impact their housing opportunities right now. It really serves to hinder potential housing opportunities in the future,” Diaz said referring to the effects of a credit score dip and an eviction history.

Renters still being kicked out during COVID-19 pandemic despite nationwide eviction ban
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-coronavirus-renter-evictions-20201129-zmvvqikoare6ngo33kh43e4mfu-story.html

The CDC order has averted a wave of evictions, housing advocates said, but tenants are increasingly falling through the cracks.
Some judges in North Carolina and Missouri refused to accept the directive, tenant advocates said. The order has been applied inconsistently, and some tenants, who had no legal representation, knew nothing about it. Landlords in several states also unsuccessfully sued to scrap the order, arguing it was causing them financial hardship and infringing on their property rights.

Evictions happening around U.S. despite federal ban
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/11/29/evictions-happening-around-u-s-despite-federal-ban/

“The wave is mounting,” state Rep. Mike Connolly, D-Cambridge, told the Herald last week.
Massachusetts’ Housing Court has seen eviction filings nearly double every week — for a total of 1,287 — since a state moratorium limiting removals expired on Oct. 17. Though many of those cases can’t move forward until a federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention order expires on Dec. 31, Connolly said that number doesn’t capture renters who leave on their own accord out of fear or unaware of their rights.

[gerontocrat]

Nearly 19 million Americans could lose their homes when eviction limits expire Dec. 31

Meanwhile the stock market rises to new records.

Somewhere I saw an article (Bloomberg?) on how ever-increasing inequality is now built into the US economic system. The same applies to the UK.

Unregulated capitalism rules, OK?

[The Walrus]

Nearly 19 million Americans could lose their homes when eviction limits expire Dec. 31

Meanwhile the stock market rises to new records.

The stock market typically is looking at the economy three to six months in the future.  Investors are expecting better things next years.  They are usually correct.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Virus surge is leading to a double-dip recession and dollar crash, economist Stephen Roach warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/virus-is-leading-to-double-dip-recession-dollar-crash-stephen-roach.html

The U.S. may be on the cusp of a double-dip recession.
Economist Stephen Roach believes surging coronavirus cases are disrupting Wall Street’s hopes for a V-shaped recovery.
“With the infection rate soaring right now, a still vulnerable U.S. economy is likely to experience further lockdowns,” the Yale University senior fellow told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday.

US on verge of double-dip recession and dollar crash – leading macroeconomic influencers
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/us-double-dip-recession-dollar-crash/

Economists believe that the pandemic is causing the US economy to plunge into a double-dip recession and is also exerting great pressure on the dollar. They are calling for fiscal support to address the difficult economic situation, citing that the economy is heading towards a hole in savings more than ever in history.

Lack of COVID stimulus money threatens to spark double recession: economist
https://www.ktvu.com/news/lack-of-covid-stimulus-money-threatens-to-spark-double-recession-economist

Though Democrats and Republicans say they want a stimulus bill, that have yet to make a deal. That leaves local governments, as well as businesses and people essentially abandoned.
On December 26, 14 million people will lose unemployment benefits as two federal pandemic relief programs expire. On top of that, protections for homeowners, renters, and student loan borrowers will also expire, figuratively and literally leaving them very much out in the cold.
"It's a serious threat of a double recession," said former Golden Gate University Business School dean and former Wall Street lawyer, Terry Connelly, who knows the legislation and the forces behind them.

Now in recession, India is faring worse than most major economies
https://qz.com/india/1939266/now-in-recession-india-is-faring-worse-than-us-germany-france/

The Covid-19 lockdowns between March and June hurt the Indian economy pretty badly. But even after the lockdowns were lifted, things haven’t changed for the country much as India continued to be one of the worst-hit major economies during the July-September period.
In the September quarter, India’s economy contracted by 7.5% year-on-year, pushing the country into a recession. Among the major economies of the world, only the UK and Spain shrunk sharper than India.

Her Recession: Economic downturn from COVID disproportionately hurting women
https://www.kxly.com/her-recession-unemployments-wide-reaching-effects/

It has taken the lives of our neighbors and loved ones. It has devastated many local businesses and it has stolen jobs from hard-working people.
The biggest victim in those job losses is women.
It is such a dramatic trend that some in the economy sector are calling it a “she-cession” or “her recession” – a recession disproportionately affecting women.

Agencies predict evictions to rise after the new year
https://wdef.com/2020/11/30/agencies-predict-evictions-rise-new-year/

President of the community Foundation of Northwest Georgia David Aft said housing and homelessness were already problems before the pandemic and COVID’s impact has just exacerbated the problem.
“As the courts open up as the relationship between tenants and landlords evolves you will see the housing instability be made worse by expected evictions,” said Aft.
“And it’s a nationwide problem we’re expecting 40 million people to be in danger of eviction next year and so even a small percentage that in our community will be a large number,” said Dalton-Whitfield Community Development Interim Director Reed Fincher.

On the other hand it's an ill wind that blows no good and every cloud has a silver lining:
Office Jobs Are Recovering Faster Than Usual For a Recession
https://www.globest.com/2020/11/30/office-jobs-are-recovering-faster-than-usual-for-a-recession/

In the third quarter, office-using employment rebounded quickly. According to data from Newmark, more than 30% of private sector office-using jobs lost in second quarter were recovered by the end of the third quarter. The 15 largest office markets in the country—many of which have been the hardest hit by the pandemic-driven downturn—have seen the strongest recovery in office-using jobs. Typically, the recapture of lost jobs is much slower during a recession, making the speed of this recovery all the more reassuring for both office and multifamily landlords.

[The Walrus]

Stephen Roach has a long reputation as a doomsayer.  He is seldom right, and society has not collapsed, even though he has predicted so for almost two decades.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2004-11-22/economic-armageddon-predicted/

[Tom_Mazanec]

S&P Global economist: US economy will fall into double-dip recession without stimulus
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/528349-sp-global-economist-us-economy-will-fall-into-double-dip-recession

The U.S. economy will fall into a double-dip recession and take nearly a year longer to return to pre-pandemic growth if Congress fails to pass a new coronavirus relief bill, according to an economic forecast released by S&P Global on Wednesday.

Researcher Finds Evictions Are Associated With More Than 10,000 Deaths From COVID-19
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/01/940816002/researcher-finds-evictions-are-associated-with-more-than-10-000-death-from-covid

The national moratorium on evictions expires in December. NPR's Mary Louise Kelly talks with researcher Kathryn Leifheit, who linked evictions to increased coronavirus infections and deaths.

Evictions resume despite CDC directive to continue moratoriums
https://www.fox13news.com/news/evictions-resume-despite-cdc-directive-to-continue-moratoriums

A directive from the Centers for Disease Control to temporarily halt evictions during the COVID-19 pandemic does not seem to protect renters in court. In some cases, including in Hillsborough County, eviction orders are being issued and carried out.
Across the country, state moratoriums on evictions, including Florida's, have expired, putting more than 20 million renters at risk of losing the roof over their head.

There's a federal moratorium on evictions. So why have more than 200 families in Milwaukee been evicted since then?
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/11/30/least-244-families-milwaukee-county-evicted-since-moratorium/6331504002/

Turns out the latest federal moratorium on evictions is really more of a slowdown than a shutdown.
At least 244 families have been evicted from their homes in Milwaukee County since Sept. 4, when the Trump Administration's "temporary halt in residential evictions" took effect, according to Sgt. William Brown, who oversees the sheriff's eviction unit.

[Rodius]

Nearly 19 million Americans could lose their homes when eviction limits expire Dec. 31

Meanwhile the stock market rises to new records.

The stock market typically is looking at the economy three to six months in the future.  Investors are expecting better things next years.  They are usually correct.

Yeah, I bet they are thinking the Govt will bail them out for at least the next six month so the risk is mitigated regardless of what happens.
But, in the end, if the companies on the stock market cant sell their products and services, no amount of bailouts will stop the fall.

The economy runs on a lot of people standing their small amounts of money.... is the US looking after those people?

[The Walrus]

Nearly 19 million Americans could lose their homes when eviction limits expire Dec. 31

Meanwhile the stock market rises to new records.

The stock market typically is looking at the economy three to six months in the future.  Investors are expecting better things next years.  They are usually correct.

Yeah, I bet they are thinking the Govt will bail them out for at least the next six month so the risk is mitigated regardless of what happens.
But, in the end, if the companies on the stock market cant sell their products and services, no amount of bailouts will stop the fall.

The economy runs on a lot of people standing their small amounts of money.... is the US looking after those people?

Exactly!  The economy runs on the people - not the government.  They are expecting a general spending increase, not a bailout.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Bleak Holiday Ahead for Millions of Americans Seeing Income Drop
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bleak-holiday-ahead-millions-americans-184055693.html

About 76 million Americans expect someone in their household to suffer a drop in income over the next few weeks, in a holiday season marked by the pending expiration of government benefits as well as new pandemic-related restrictions, according to the latest Census Bureau survey.
The figure, from the bureau’s regular Household Pulse study completed on Nov. 23, is up by almost 11 million compared with the late-August edition.

Fed: Little to no growth in four of 12 regions as stress mounts
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-beigebook/fed-little-to-no-growth-in-four-of-12-regions-as-stress-mounts-idUSN9N2HQ03F

Federal Reserve officials saw “little or no growth” in four of their 12 U.S. districts and only modest growth elsewhere in recent weeks amid a rapidly spreading health crisis and the impact of a recession that has devastated some businesses and families even as many others thrive.

Food Insecurity Increases Dramatically During Coronavirus Pandemic
https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/11/30/food-insecurity-increases-dramatically-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

As coronavirus cases surge, worldwide, national and local organizations are shining a light on growing food insecurity.
David Beasley of the United Nations World Food Programme painted a grim picture of worldwide food insecurity on CBS’ Face The Nation.
“This is not people going to bed hungry,” he said. “This is people really struggling to get their next meal.”
Beasley said 135 million people were food insecure last year, compared to 270 million people now.

Hunger and food insecurity is rising. Congress must act
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/30/opinion/hunger-food-insecurity-is-rising-congress-must-act/

With more families unable to access healthy food, and more Americans going hungry in 2020, it’s critical that Congress pass another economic stimulus package to help people put food on their tables.

[The Walrus]

Yet, the future is looking brighter again.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-gdp-recovery-biden-stimulus-coronavirus-vaccine-goldman-sachs-2020-11%3famp

[glennbuck]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/24/us/how-to-get-food-assistance-hunger-pandemic-iyw-trnd/index.html

Feeding America, the nation's largest hunger-relief organization, says more than 54 million people in the country could soon face food insecurity. That is 17 million more than before the coronavirus outbreak. The non-profit has seen a 60 percent increase in food assistance needs since March.

"About 40 percent of the people who are showing up for food distributions have never before had to rely on charitable food assistance," Fitzgerald told CNN.

[Rodius]

Nearly 19 million Americans could lose their homes when eviction limits expire Dec. 31

Meanwhile the stock market rises to new records.

The stock market typically is looking at the economy three to six months in the future.  Investors are expecting better things next years.  They are usually correct.

Yeah, I bet they are thinking the Govt will bail them out for at least the next six month so the risk is mitigated regardless of what happens.
But, in the end, if the companies on the stock market cant sell their products and services, no amount of bailouts will stop the fall.

The economy runs on a lot of people standing their small amounts of money.... is the US looking after those people?

Exactly!  The economy runs on the people - not the government.  They are expecting a general spending increase, not a bailout.

So far the stock market has been doing well because of bailouts.
In 2009 the stock market and banking sectors were saved by bailouts.
In six months' time, with the history of a govt that refuses to let the stock market collapse properly, I bet they think they will have yet another bailout or the economy recovers.... either way, those with money in the stock market win but the flip of a coin projections only really affect the general population should it get worse.

At some point, this wont work because the economy is not the stock market. The economy is the buying and selling of products and services. And the people who do the buying cant buy enough to keep a false economy working via a stock market that is geared to maintain the wealth with the wealthy.

The trickle down effect is a myth..... money goes up and stays there.
People on the bottom, the real reason economies do well, are being left out to dry and rot.
The only way the US economy will keep functioning is if the Govt stops giving out aide to the wealthy and begins giving money to the bottom half at the very least.

I am a great believer in the Univerisal Basic Income.
Most people who want this to happen believe strongly it will come from Left leaning politics.
Personally, I think it will be Right wing (The US is Right regardless of who is in power, it is more a matter of how far Right it is) because as capitalism continues to implode and those with wealth begin to panic, they will figure out that the ONLY way to maintain capitalism is to give free money to poor people (or everyone) to prop up the economic system.
It will work for a while, but eventually, capitalism and its main proponent of it, the US, will fail.

This virus is speeding the process up.

Either the Govt bails the stock market out again to pretend everything is okay.
Or they bail out the general population with free money to stall the inevitable collapse of the capitalistic monetary system.

But this virus isn't going to let up enough to let the economy recover and grow fast enough to save the country. And even if it does, the bounce will take at least a decade... that is a very long time to be in trouble and survive, especially when the US is already in trouble pre Covid. And if you think the countries who oppose the US will sit back and let the recovery happen easily, think again.

We are living in a time of massive change, there is no going back to the way it was.

[Sigmetnow]

Slopes stay open, singing banned as Swiss crack down on COVID-19

ZURICH (Reuters) Switzerland on Friday said it would allow ski resorts to remain open for domestic tourism but announced some stricter measures including banning singing to control the spread of the coronavirus.

The Alpine country has sought a different path from neighbours Italy, France and Germany which are keeping winter sports under wraps over the holiday period, while Austria has made ski holidays all but impossible.

Instead, Switzerland said resorts will need local authority approval to open after Dec. 22, a move in line with the country’s middle path of keeping the economy relatively open and relying on the public to comply with anti-COVID-19 measures.

Enclosed transport, including ski lifts, trains and gondolas, will be limited to two-thirds capacity from Dec. 9, the government said.

Resorts which do not comply with social distancing regulations could have their permits removed, it said. ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-swiss/update-2-slopes-stay-open-singing-banned-as-swiss-crack-down-on-covid-19-idUSL8N2IK3YA

[vox_mundi]

Close the slopes; keep the raclette and fondue and a nice wine (or 2)

[Tom_Mazanec]

Pandemic-induced options trading craze shows no signs of slowing down
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/pandemic-induced-options-trading-craze-shows-no-signs-of-slowing-down.html

The stay-at-home requirement created by Covid-19 has spawned a huge sub-industry in options trading in tandem with an increase in equities trading that shows no signs of letting up. 

The Unemployment Rate Dramatically Overstates the Strength of the Economy
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-unemployment-rate-dramatically-overstates-the-strength-of-the-economy

Pre-Covid, the labor force force was 164,516,000.
Despite the recovery, the labor force is only up to 160,867,000.
That's a decline of 3,649,000 people. Realistically, unemployment is understated by at least that amount.

Unemployment benefits drop below poverty line in 13 states
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/unemployment-benefits-drop-below-poverty-line-in-13-states

Unemployment insurance benefits for Americans in 13 states dipped below the poverty line after the extra $600-a-week in federal aid expired at the end of July, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office.

Fed Economists Warn of Debt Overhang Problem From Covid Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/fed-economists-warn-of-debt-overhang-problem-from-covid-crisis

The Covid-19 crisis could be worse than the Great Recession for companies that had high levels of indebtedness at the start of the outbreak, according to economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Employment growth slows sharply in November amid coronavirus surge
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/jobs-report-november-2020.html

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 in November, down from 610,000 in October.
The total was below the Wall Street estimate of 440,000.
Unemployment decreased to 6.7%, meeting expectations.
Job gains were concentrated in warehousing as well as professional and business services. Retail jobs fell ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Why Black Americans May Face a Slower Recovery from the Recession
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-black-americans-may-face-a-slower-recovery-from-the-recession-11606958060

Black workers have substantially higher unemployment rates than white workers regardless of their education, data shows

[The Walrus]

Rodius, we are wrong.  The stock market is the economy.  Has been since the current market system began.  The economy has never deviated from the market - ever.  There have always been winners and losers, people at the top and bottom, from the beginning of time.  The difference between today and previous systems is that there exist a large portion in the middle.  They will be rich always and the poor will always be with us.  Someone much wiser than me once said that.

[wili]

Soooo, before there was a stock market, there was no economy??

 

[The Walrus]

Soooo, before there was a stock market, there was no economy??

 

Of course not!  Do not be silly.