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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #600 on: May 15, 2020, 06:34:53 AM »
Surely you cannot mean that the 4 trillion USD  fed rollout means that the US deficit has decreased by 4 trillion ? 

But this discussion probably needs moved to another thread.

sidd



El Cid

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #601 on: May 15, 2020, 08:57:04 AM »
What we are seeing right now in the US and other countries is direct monetization of government debt. This is usually done only during war. This is otherwise called moneyprinting. Unlike previous rounds of QE between 2008-18, whose effect was mainly inflating asset prices, this one goes directly or indirectly to consumers (mostly), so will eventually lead to price-inflation. Also, we have yield curve control in many countries which keeps down bond yields. Something similar happened in WW2:

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/treasury_fed_accord
 

When you earn zero percent on your savings but inflation is 2-3-4-.... % then you are robbed of your savings. This is a wealth transfer from the middle class/upper classes to the indebted. This is a sort of wealth tax that covers a big part of the population (eg. most anyone with a pension fund investment which contains fixed income assets).

Government stimulus by fiat is not free. It is taking money from those who have positive net wealth and giving it to those who have none (are indebted). Modern Robin Hood. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #602 on: May 15, 2020, 12:05:38 PM »
So can we or can't we push the National Debt up to solve this? To 100 trillion? A quadrillion? A quintillion? A decillion? A centillion? What's the limit?
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oren

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #603 on: May 15, 2020, 12:12:38 PM »
The limit is when the users of the currency lose faith in it as a store of value and a means of trade. It could be next year or in a millenium.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #604 on: May 15, 2020, 02:07:14 PM »
Surely you cannot mean that the 4 trillion USD  fed rollout means that the US deficit has decreased by 4 trillion ? 

But this discussion probably needs moved to another thread.

sidd

It's still relevant, because the Federal Reserve is again pursuing quantitative easing and related measures right now in dramatic fashion.  This is a potent tool to fight economic contraction/deflation/contraction of the money supply (these are three facets of a single economic phenomenon).

The Federal Reserve balance sheet is a collection of assets (treasury bonds and now some commercial bond assets).  And these are true assets, with a real rate of return--that goes to the Treasury, to help pay for the fiscal budget.  This is exactly like a sovereign wealth fund.

So, acquiring these assets doesn't reduce the deficit, it reduces the debt, in real macroeconomic terms.

The Federal Reserve doesn't give money to any entity other than remitting profits to the Treasury.  It lends, and it buys.  It lends to banks at a policy-derived interest rate, and it buys mostly Treasury bonds at the market rate.  In severely troubled times like this and the Great Recession, it can buy other assets.  They just announced they will be buying corporate bond ETFs.  This isn't some taxpayer giveaway, plenty of normal investors are buying corporate bond ETFs.  And the Fed will receive interest payments, which then will be remitted to the Treasury.

In effect, when the Treasury sells a trillion dollars of bonds to the market, and the Fed buy a trillion dollars of Treasury bonds from the open market, then the government has just printed a trillion dollars to pay for a trillion dollars in spending.

This sounds terribly reckless, a prescription for hyperinflation.  But it's not.  Most of the money in circulation in the economy never was created by the Fed, nor the Mint, nor the Treasury.  Most money gets created in the process of credit/debt, borrowing/lending.  This majority component of circulating money is inherently unstable in amount.  In a recession, borrowing and lending stops, and the money supply contracts, creating deeper recession, further suppression of borrowing and lending, causing further contraction of the money supply.  Positive feedback is present.  There's also positive feedback in the other direction with inflation.

The macroeconomic system is thus dominated by positive feedbacks.  Systems dominated by positive feedbacks display oscillations.  In macroeconomics, the inevitable oscillations from these positive feedbacks are called "the business cycle."

Deflation is deeply destructive, and high inflation is also bad.  The oscillations can really only be effectively tamped by actions of the Federal Reserve.  Essentially it's entire function is to be the economy's thermostat. 

These ideas are part of the foundation of Modern Monetary Theory.  We could do a lot of progressive good by gradually replacing much of the credit/debt-based circulating money with government-issued money.  Doing so could go far in eliminating the positive feedback cycles that produce the instability and oscillations that plague economies.  It can also fund massive amounts of federal spending without causing inflation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #605 on: May 15, 2020, 04:30:44 PM »
Government largesse....

It can (will be) also be used to

- bail out the industries that got us into this mess,
- give loads of money to industries that will get us deeper into this mess.

It could be - but most likely won't be, targeted at human activities that might save the sorry arse of most of us.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #606 on: May 15, 2020, 05:10:21 PM »
Headlines from Bloomberg...

Abbott’s Virus Antibody Test Gets Approval for Use in the U.K.
As many as 5 million tests can be provided to the U.K. each month with immediate effect.


But I thought the test was shown to be inaccurate?

CEOs Are Cutting Millions of Jobs Yet Keep Their Lofty Bonuses

BAU indeed.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #607 on: May 15, 2020, 05:24:36 PM »
Quote
... But I thought the test was shown to be inaccurate?
Yep

See: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg264312.html#msg264312
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #608 on: May 15, 2020, 08:34:55 PM »
U.S. GDP could decline by 42% in the second quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed
Quote
The already dismal outlook for economic growth during the current period just got considerably worse.

Gross domestic product, which tallies the sum of goods and services across the economy, is on track to crater 42.8% in the April-to-June period, according to a running measure kept by the Atlanta Federal Reserve.

The tracker, called GDPNow, had been indicating a drop of 34.9% a week ago, but a raft of poor economic data since then caused the central bank district to take down the figure even more. The drop would easily be the worst in the post-World War II era.

On top of all the bad jobs reports recently, the Census Bureau reported Friday that retail sales collapsed 16.4% in April, which was even worse than the 12.3% that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been forecasting. That came following news Thursday that another nearly 3 million Americans filed jobless claims last week, bringing the running eight-week total during the coronavirus lockdown to 36.5 million.

Economic reports in general have been running lower than even the sharply reduced expectations. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which gauges the data against Wall Street estimates, hit its lowest-ever point at the end of April in records that go back to January 2003.

Taking the data together, the Atlanta Fed now sees personal consumption expenditures, which make 68% of GDP, falling by 43.6% in Q2, down from the May 8 estimate of -33.9%. Gross private domestic investment, which currently is 17% of GDP, is expected to plunge by 69.4%, down from a -62.8% estimate a week ago.

GDPNow can be volatile and is not a forecast per se but rather a running estimate based on real-time data. However, it is only somewhat worse than other prominent estimates.

Goldman Sachs, for instance, recently projected growth to fall 39% for the quarter. The firm, though, sees a big bounce on the other side, with Q3 rising 29%. The New York Fed's GDP Nowcast is tracking at 31.05%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/gdp-could-decline-by-42percent-in-the-second-quarter-according-to-the-atlanta-fed.html

——
This breakdown of retail sales data shows why Amazon is leading the stock market
Quote
Consumer spending plunged by a record 16.4% in April, but one category saw a bounce: nonstore retailers.

Included in this category, which saw an 8.4% month-over-month increase, is online shopping. With much of the country under shelter-in-place orders during April, consumers increasingly turned towards e-commerce giants like Amazon for their shopping needs.

Other retailers are also seeing a bounce in online orders, but Amazon's market share, as well as the one-stop-shop nature of the site, means it's often the first choice for consumers.

"In typical Internet fashion, a winner-take-most model played out with Amazon now accounting for 40% of US [gross merchandise volume]," Bernstein analysts said Friday in a note to clients. Benstein pointed to Amazon's large production selection, lower prices, and reliable delivery as factors that will make it a "clear beneficiary of eCommerce acceleration." …
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/this-breakdown-of-retail-sales-data-shows-why-amazon-is-leading-the-stock-market.html

——
“…beginning a transformation from being mainly a supplier of office products, to a more diverse product and business service platform.”

Office Depot Plans to Lay Off Thousands of Workers
Quote
Office supplies seller Office Depot (NASDAQ:ODP) said it has plans to close stores and cut 13,100 jobs by 2023 to lower costs and shift its focus toward its Information Technology (IT) business services segment, CNBC reports. As recently as May 6, 2020, when it reported its first-quarter earnings, the company said its balance sheet is "exceptionally strong with significant available liquidity, positive net cash position, and attractive debt maturity schedule."

According to the report, Office Depot says the new plan to downsize will save the company up to $860 million by 2023. At the time it reported earnings, CEO Gerry P. Smith touted its strong cash position, saying the company was in a position to "pursue additional opportunities to expand our customer reach," and to expand its products and services. ...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/15/office-depot-plans-to-lay-off-thousands-of-workers.aspx
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dnem

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #609 on: May 15, 2020, 08:48:32 PM »
Surely you cannot mean that the 4 trillion USD  fed rollout means that the US deficit has decreased by 4 trillion ? 

But this discussion probably needs moved to another thread.

sidd

It's still relevant, because the Federal Reserve is again pursuing quantitative easing and related measures right now in dramatic fashion.  This is a potent tool to fight economic contraction/deflation/contraction of the money supply (these are three facets of a single economic phenomenon).

This is a great primer (along with the rest of the post, above), Steve.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #610 on: May 16, 2020, 01:29:00 AM »
Manhattan New Rentals Plunge 71% as Coronavirus Freezes the Market
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/15/manhattan-new-rentals-plunge-71percent-as-coronavirus-freezes-the-market.html

The number of new leases for Manhattan apartments fell to 1,407, the lowest total in a decade, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.

The vacancy rate climbed to its highest level in 14 years, according to the report.

The declines were the clearest sign yet in the rental market that Manhattan residents are leaving the city in the wake of the coronavirus
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #611 on: May 16, 2020, 06:32:31 AM »
Foor a detailed look at fed reserve balance sheet from a few years ago:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201301/201301pap.pdf

Current position:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

But again, i think this is best discussed elsewhere.

sidd

SteveMDFP

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #612 on: May 16, 2020, 07:35:49 AM »
Foor a detailed look at fed reserve balance sheet from a few years ago:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201301/201301pap.pdf

Current position:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

But again, i think this is best discussed elsewhere.

sidd

A graphic representation may be easier:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.

sidd

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dnem

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #614 on: May 16, 2020, 01:51:37 PM »
This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.

I appreciate these discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in this thread.  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Obviously these questions are a bit rhetorical. In practical terms, are we getting close to some discontinuity in how these pieces fit together?  The "system" as you describe it has the feel of a perpetual motion machine.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #615 on: May 16, 2020, 02:23:22 PM »
I agree, dnem. I just don't believe in a free lunch. We will have to pay for this sometime.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #616 on: May 16, 2020, 03:00:33 PM »
This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.


I appreciate these discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in this thread.  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Obviously these questions are a bit rhetorical. In practical terms, are we getting close to some discontinuity in how these pieces fit together?  The "system" as you describe it has the feel of a perpetual motion machine.
Ah,
- I remember the days when the EU demanded that the Govt debt of member states was kept to below 60%, & it was Germany & France that in the end blew that one away.
-and I remember a financial crisis- 2008-09 wasn't it? Can't Pay, Won't Pay mortgage loans bundled up by Goldman Sachs, salted with a few good ones and flogged to a naive bunch of other bankers & financial institutions, plus a load of other financial wheezes. That didn't end well.
- and now we have the biggest financial wheeze of them all. The Central Banks are buying up junk bonds and other financial instruments & making humongous loans to businesses many of which are in the "Can't Pay, Won't Pay" category. 

& as long as we all accept that it does not matter, it does not matter. So for pity's sake, kill that child who points at the Emperor and says, "But mummy, the Emperor is naked - he has no new clothes".

ps: And the trickle up effect is in full flood, the loot rises to the rich.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #617 on: May 16, 2020, 05:08:52 PM »
This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.

I appreciate these discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in this thread.  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Obviously these questions are a bit rhetorical. In practical terms, are we getting close to some discontinuity in how these pieces fit together?  The "system" as you describe it has the feel of a perpetual motion machine.

Well, the Fed effectively prints money with these actions.  Hyperinflation *can* result.  MMT tends to advocate for gradually replacing money that's been created through private-sector borrowing/lending with government-issued money.  The system would need to be adjusted to gradually discourage borrowing/lending.  There are several ways to do that. 

However, such an approach gradually makes banking less and less needed, less and less profitable, less and less powerful.  It also requires a shift in policy by the Federal Reserve.  The Federal Reserve leadership are mostly people with a banking background.  If you think like a banker, your policies will favor banking.

El Cid

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #618 on: May 16, 2020, 06:57:31 PM »
  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Because printing money is a huge transfer of wealth from those who own nominal assets (bonds, cash) to those who are in debt. This usually only happens  during war. MMT is partly standard keynesian economics, partly mirage, fugazi*. It promises something out of nothing but all it does is to redistribute wealth. There is no free luch.

*watch the wolf of wall street for fugazi:

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #619 on: May 16, 2020, 07:21:26 PM »
Because printing money is a huge transfer of wealth from those who own nominal assets (bonds, cash) to those who are in debt.

El Cid, this is only partially true. Most people don't have a variable interest rate. Therefore average joe does not profit from this. Only the big lenders (i.e. big companies) are able to negotiate lower interest rates mid-contract.

So actually, it's a wealth transfer to the banks. At least for some time.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #620 on: May 16, 2020, 09:03:35 PM »
The big companies just have to say "Hi there,Don Baby, or Good morning, Boris Old Chap" and the road is suddenly smooth and clear of all obstacles such as any mention of  the destruction of capital through share buy-backs with borrowed money.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #621 on: May 16, 2020, 10:05:06 PM »
“A Priest giving social distance blessings with a squirt pistol and what, I'm assuming, is Holy water. 2020 folks.”
https://twitter.com/tripgore/status/1261378270190133249

From the comments:   “Que Dios los bendiga…piu piu”
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oren

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #622 on: May 17, 2020, 12:03:13 AM »
Quote
Because printing money is a huge transfer of wealth from those who own nominal assets (bonds, cash) to those who are in debt. 
In the past few decades money printing mostly drove up asset prices relative to cash, rather than create general inflation which affects consumer prices and wages.
Thus the transfer effected by massive printing served to enrich those who made massive leveraged speculation, owning assets while being in debt.


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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #624 on: May 17, 2020, 12:53:23 AM »
Fed Says Risks to the Financial System Are Worrying Insiders
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/438FF1A0-96EA-11EA-8340-95FDE6EE78E0

Corporate leverage cited as a significant problem that could be exposed due to problems created by the coronavirus

Risks are lingering in the U.S. financial system despite unprecedented actions taking by the Federal Reserve in recent weeks to limit the damage wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent report.

The Fed’s semiannual update of financial conditions provide a near-term account of concerns shared by corporate, financial insiders and others who have insight into how the coronavirus is ravaging the economy.

Economic Stability Report: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20200515.pdf

Corporate leverage was cited as a significant problem that could be exposed due to problems created by the coronavirus.

A litany of sectors, including private credit and loans rated below investment-grade, also were cited as vulnerable. The triple-B rated segment of the corporate bond market, the largest slice of investment-grade issuance, was highlighted.



Investors exposed to those sectors could come under pressure. Insiders said outflows from corporate-bond mutual funds could result in limits to redemptions, while global insurance companies that relied on overseas bonds to pay for premiums could become significant sellers of corporate debt.

Delinquencies in consumer loans and mortgages could spill over into banks, especially smaller institutions that provided loans to commercial real estate, small and medium sized businesses, and those located in areas with lower-rated customers.

Some investment strategies could prove vulnerable if markets took a sustained hit such as investments that bet on muted financial volatility, and leveraged exchange-traded funds that amplified profits along with losses.

The Fed’s balance sheet has grown to a record $6.98 trillion in the week ended May 13, up from $6.72 trillion in the prior week, the central bank said Thursday, largely to funds the central bank has provided and actions it has taken to mitigate the economic fallout from the disease.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 01:39:49 AM by vox_mundi »
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etienne

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #625 on: May 17, 2020, 08:09:16 AM »
Interesting article about technology and pandemics, but I don't agree with all what it contains. Some local shops also make better business right now, I have never been so much to the shop around the corner and really try to avoid large supermarkets, well I have to say that I never enjoyed them. Ordering clothes over the internet is not only linked with good experiences, I would say that for about half of what we ordered, we just keep it because we need something, few items will go to the local charity, we just send back expensive items that don't match the reqirements.

Quarantine is the future big tech wanted us to want. How long before we want out?

https://reallifemag.com/home-screens/

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #626 on: May 18, 2020, 11:27:51 AM »
Here is the Wikipedia article on the recession (depression?):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_recession?wprov=srpw1_0
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El Cid

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #627 on: May 18, 2020, 12:13:13 PM »
oren, blumenkraft

Yes. In the past money printing was mostly pushing up asset prices as CBs bought govt bonds. This pushed down their yield and pushed down the yield (and therefore pushed up the price) of all other assets, eg stocks and real estate.

What we are right now seeing is however a new phase. Now governments actually spend the money on salaries, etc. The money gets to consumers. This will create inflation. This is not at all the same as 2009-18 QE. Now we have huge government budget deficits which is inflationary without a question AND CBs control the yield curve like the Fed did between 1942-52.

The question is who profits and who loses if inflation is lets say 5%, and the bond yield is 0%? Anyone who has savings in cash and bonds is a big loser. Stocks and real estate are questionable. Anyone who has fixed interest rate debt is a winner.

The middle class has huge savings in the developed world in pension funds, and a big part of that is bonds, They lose the money that is spent won by those who are (net ) indebted.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #628 on: May 18, 2020, 07:37:34 PM »
It seems the markets have decided (at least until tomorrow) that fairly soon it will not be so much BAU, as BAU2.

Loads-a-money to be made during this period of creative destruction?
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #629 on: May 19, 2020, 02:15:14 AM »
Japan in recession:

"The 3.4% fall in growth domestic product (GDP) for the first three months of 2020, follows a 6.4% decline during the last quarter of 2019, pushing Japan into a technical recession."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52570721

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #630 on: May 19, 2020, 02:28:32 AM »
Well, I guess we will learn some new economics From this experience.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #631 on: May 19, 2020, 03:00:38 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #632 on: May 19, 2020, 01:10:21 PM »
Quote
LisaBaumann (@LisaBaumann) 5/18/20, 3:52 PM
BREAKING (AP): Judge tosses out Oregon's coronavirus restrictions
https://twitter.com/lisabaumann/status/1262471181636001792
- Oregon Gov. Kate Brown says she will immediately appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court to try to keep coronavirus emergency orders in effect, reports @andrewselsky & @gflaccus: bit.ly/2zRwAQ5

< Make up of the Oregon Supreme Court.  (Judge Appointed by)
Lynn Nakamoto (Brown)
Rebecca Duncan (Brown)
Adrienne Nelson (Brown)
Thomas Balmer (Kitzhaber) (D)
Chris Garrett (Brown)
Martha Walters (Kulongoski) (D)
Meagan A. Flynn (Brown)
No chance Brown will lose on appeal.

Mary R (@FastEVRides) 5/18/20, 6:39 PM
I was pretty excited until I realized judge’s jurisdiction is Baker County, a rural county in NE corner of OR.
Still... it may embolden other lawsuits.
Love this quote:
“..the damage to Oregonians and their livelihood was greater than the dangers presented by the coronavirus.“
https://twitter.com/fastevrides/status/1262513215361085441
<Who coulda seen this coming....
<< The lawsuits or damage from mitigation?  Both were inevitable from the minute these governors started the unjustified, junk science lockdowns, but the media spin, fear-mongering and panic porn has been unparalleled.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #633 on: May 19, 2020, 10:02:11 PM »
Michael Pettis on Twitter:
Quote
"Tang Jie, one of the very smart students in my Sunday seminar, presented the following graph in today’s meeting. It shows subway ridership this year in 30 major Chinese cities compared to the same period last year. Jie pointed out at least three interesting things about this...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1262055347365138432
(Image below.)

"...graph. First, while subway ridership dropped sharply during Chinese New Year for both years, in 2019 it recovered within a week, whereas this year we have seen only a partial recovery over the 14 weeks of lockdown. As of last week ridership during the work week (the graph..."
"...shows, not surprisingly, how ridership is much higher on weekdays than on weekends) was just over 60% of 2019’s level. Second, notice how every Friday, in 2019, ridership surges. This is almost certainly because after work, there is a second wave of ridership as people go..."
"...out on weekend nights. So far this year even as ridership recovers we haven’t seen the Friday surge. This shows pretty clearly that while life is returning to normal from a work perspective, it is taking longer from an entertainment perspective. The third interesting thing..."
"...about the graph reinforces the second: weekend ridership has recovered by a lot less than weekday ridership – it is just over 50% of normal. Together these suggest that it might take a lot longer for most people to return to their normal lives as consumers than to return..."
"...to their normal lives as workers. ...”
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #634 on: May 20, 2020, 08:27:18 PM »
The entire economy will sink if the federal government doesn't bail out states
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/perspectives/state-government-bailout/
Quote
But no state will escape the financial black hole created by the crisis. Nationwide, we estimate that state and local governments will have Covid-19 budget shortfalls totaling at least $500 billion through fiscal year 2022. This is stunning — equal to nearly one-fifth of pre-crisis annual revenues — and does not include the direct health care costs states are bearing to battle the virus. So far, the federal government has picked up these health care costs. It will need to continue to do so.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Alexander555

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #635 on: May 20, 2020, 09:33:28 PM »
And the US budget deficit already stands at 3,25 trillion for this year. Trump is on the right way to follow in Obama's footsteps. The double US debt in 8 years. https://usdebtclock.org

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #636 on: May 20, 2020, 11:33:01 PM »
UK 3 year note interest rates go negative:

"the U.K. auctioned £3.75 billion ($4.6 billion) of 3-year notes at an average rate of -0.003%. "

"France had 1.4 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) of debt outstanding with negative yields, and Germany had 1.24 trillion euros."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/britain-sells-its-first-bonds-at-a-negative-interest-rate-2020-05-20

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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #637 on: May 21, 2020, 02:37:02 AM »
Cambridge University moves lectures online until summer 2021
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-deaths-brazil-reach-daily-record-live-updates-200519232823246.html

Cambridge University has become the first university to announce measures for the full 2020-2021 academic year, saying that it will move all lectures online, according to a Press Association report.

It may be possible for smaller teaching groups to take place if they conform to physical-distancing requirements, the university said, adding that the decision will be reviewed should there be any changes to "official advice on coronavirus".

--------------------------------

Trump says he will sign order to cut federal regulations
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-deaths-brazil-reach-daily-record-live-updates-200519232823246.html

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he will sign an executive order directing federal agencies to eliminate "unnecessary regulations that impede economic recovery".

"I'm directing agencies to review the hundreds of regulations we've already suspended in response to the virus and make these suspensions permanent where possible," Trump said at a Cabinet meeting.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #638 on: May 21, 2020, 02:28:11 PM »
A First Dog on the Moon live action cartoon! Will the coronavirus save us from climate change?
First Dog on the Moon


No it will not



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/21/a-first-dog-on-the-moon-live-action-cartoon-will-the-coronavirus-save-us-from-climate-change

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #639 on: May 21, 2020, 10:34:48 PM »
We need to reduce emissions by 7.8% per year every year. Not long ago our accidental reduction from this mess was at 8% (last time it was at 11%) but that is not going to last. And that is a reduction in a lot of travel and quite a bit of production.

The virus won´t safe us so we have to do it ourselves but that requires more cooperation and also sacrifices for all of us.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #640 on: May 22, 2020, 01:05:54 AM »
This is how fast Americans are spending their stimulus checks — and here’s a breakdown of what they’re buying
Quote
Economists looked at the spending and saving habits of more than 1,600 people who received their stimulus check by April 21

When Americans received stimulus checks during the Great Recession, studies indicated many spent at least of portion of their money on cars.  During the 2008 stimulus program, up to 90% of the rise in durable good spending had to do with auto spending, according to previous research by the American Economic Association. (At that time, the government paid an individual between $300 and $600 and couples received between $600 and $1,200. The government paid $300 per child as well.)

When Americans received their $1,200 stimulus check [this spring], as many have used it to keep a roof over their head and food on the table, according to new research by a team of economists. In late March, lawmakers passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, which included $290 billion in direct payments. The program allowed $1,200 for people making less than $75,000 and couples making less than $150,000. It also paid $500 per child.               

“Given the size of the 2020 stimulus checks, we might have expected large impacts on categories like automobile spending, electronics, appliances, and home furnishings,” according to economists at Columbia University, Northwestern University, the University of Chicago and the University of Southern Denmark.

“Instead, it seems that individuals are catching up with rent and bill payments as well as engaging in spending on food, personal care, and nondurables.” ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-fast-americans-are-spending-their-stimulus-checks-and-heres-a-breakdown-of-what-theyre-buying-2020-05-15
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #641 on: May 22, 2020, 01:35:57 AM »
U.S.:  For the first time in 20 years, AAA will not issue a Memorial Day travel forecast
AAA Travel: Pandemic Will Suppress Memorial Day Travel but Travelers Already Planning Future Trips
When it is safe to travel, AAA expects vacationers will explore America’s backyard
Quote
ORLANDO, Fla. – For the first time in 20 years, AAA will not issue a Memorial Day travel forecast, as the accuracy of the economic data used to create the forecast has been undermined by COVID-19. The annual forecast – which estimates the number of people traveling over the holiday weekend – will return next year.

Anecdotal reports suggest fewer people will hit the road compared to years past for what is considered the unofficial start of the summer travel season.

“Last year, 43 million Americans traveled for Memorial Day Weekend – the second-highest travel volume on record since AAA began tracking holiday travel volumes in 2000,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president, AAA Travel. “With social distancing guidelines still in practice, this holiday weekend’s travel volume is likely to set a record low.”

Memorial Day 2009 currently holds the record for the lowest travel volume at nearly 31 million travelers, according to AAA. That holiday weekend, which came toward the end of the Great Recession, 26.4 million Americans traveled by car, 2.1 million by plane and nearly 2 million by other forms of transportation (train, cruise, etc.).

AAA expects to make travel projections for the late summer and fall, assuming states ease travel restrictions and businesses reopen. Already, there are indications that Americans’ wanderlust is inspiring them to plan future vacations.

AAA.com/travel online bookings have been rising, though modestly, since mid-April, suggesting travelers’ confidence is slowly improving. When it is safe to travel, AAA predicts vacationers will have a preference for U.S destinations, mostly local and regional locations, and the great American road trip. ...
https://newsroom.aaa.com/2020/05/aaa-travel-pandemic-will-suppress-memorial-day-travel-but-travelers-already-planning-future-trips/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #642 on: May 22, 2020, 02:36:19 AM »
About $1 trillion has been wiped off banks' market value, an amount that rivals the annual total of $1.2 trillion seen in 2008

Financial Stocks’ $1 Trillion Wipeout Brings Echoes of 2008
May 21, 2020
Quote
After years of stress testing, financial companies might have been better positioned to withstand a market shock such as that triggered by the coronavirus. Instead, they’re standing out as persistent losers.

Down 29% since January, banks and insurers have trailed the S&P 500 by 20 percentage points, their worst performance at this point of a year on record. Along the way, about $1 trillion has been wiped off their market value, an amount that rivals the annual total of $1.2 trillion seen at the depths of the global financial crisis.

Back then, earnings worsened for eight straight quarters, turning into a huge loss at the end of 2008. Now, analysts expect the industry to see profit declines last half as long, with losses spared.

None of this brings much comfort to investors who just spent 13 years nursing losses from the financial crisis and didn’t break even until last December. ... 
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-21/financial-stocks-1-trillion-wipeout-brings-echoes-of-2008
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #643 on: May 22, 2020, 06:00:07 AM »
America's Finest News Source: living in futuristic utopia

"it’s like something out of a science fiction paradise"

" it’s almost like I’m living in a dream"

"We’ve finally achieved a perfect society"

"If Rockefeller or Henry Frick could see this sublime world, they would weep with joy"

https://www.theonion.com/nation-s-politicians-law-enforcement-corporate-execut-1843568548

sidd

nanning

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #644 on: May 22, 2020, 07:00:28 AM »
^^ thanks sidd. Interesting and not at all surprising that they think like that. It made me think of this (but without government as the main actor):


From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four

Quote
"Thematically, Nineteen Eighty-Four centres on the consequences of government over-reach, totalitarianism, mass surveillance, and repressive regimentation of all persons and behaviours within society.[2][3]

The story takes place in an imagined future, the year 1984, when much of the world has fallen victim to perpetual war, omnipresent government surveillance, historical negationism, and propaganda.

  Dreams vs nightmares.
  Fantasy vs reality.

The insane non-real dreams of a few Big Brothers (billionaires?) are the real living nightmares of all other humans (and all other life on Earth). DREAMS = FANTASIES!
Give a monkey a machine gun... He doesn't understand how it works. Just like our Big Brothers, he just pushes buttons.
Our current situation is not far of. In some aspects we're already ahead imo.

The culmination of civilisation's insane supremacy by using high tech 'magic'. This was bound to happen. Same as with having trillionaires etc. Just an extrapolation of interaction of trends and system (capitalism, 'technological progress' and social accumulation hierarchy).

Futuristic?
I foresee a barren world devoid of humans. Indeed, finally, the utopia (garden of Eden etc) that was here before the rise of civilisation is restored and just needs some time to fully grow back (depending on the remaining amount of heating in the pipeline, the amount of plastic, nasty chemicals and radioactivity).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning S. Poelsma
Prisons in your head!

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #645 on: May 22, 2020, 01:42:16 PM »
CEO of bitcoin & Antifa

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #646 on: May 23, 2020, 12:30:49 PM »
Hertz: Car Rental Firm Files for US Bankruptcy Protection
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52780841

Car rental company Hertz has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US after the pandemic saw its business plummet.

The firm, which earns much of its income from car rentals at airports, said it had been affected by the sharp downturn in global travel.

It will continue to operate while restructuring its debts.

Hertz's international operations in Europe, Australia and New Zealand as well as its franchised locations in the US are not affected.

Its chief executive resigned last week.

Before the pandemic the company had amassed billions of dollars in debt, with the rise of ride-hailing apps leading to a drop in demand for car rentals.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #647 on: May 24, 2020, 05:48:00 PM »
The path to monetary collapse
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-path-to-monetary-collapse
Quote
The fact that a liquidity crisis developed in US money markets five months before the virus hit America has been forgotten. Only a rising gold price stands testament to a deeper crisis, comprised of contracting bank credit while central banks are trying to rescue the economy, fund government deficits and keep the market bubble inflated.

The next problem is a crisis in the banks, wholly unexpected by investors and depositors. At a time when lending risk is soaring off the charts, their financial condition is more fragile than before the Lehman crisis. Failures in European G-SIBs in the next month or two are almost impossible to avoid, leading to a full-blown monetary and credit crisis which promises to undermine asset values, government financing and fiat currencies themselves.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #648 on: May 25, 2020, 01:06:34 PM »
An “L”-Shaped Recovery Is Not An Anomaly, It Is The Norm.
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/an-l-shaped-recovery-is-not-an-anomaly-it-is-the-norm/
Quote
Many analysts and economists are trying to predict the shape of the economic recovery post-Covid-19. To understand how the recovery may look like, we need to look at past recoveries and at the history of pandemics.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #649 on: May 26, 2020, 01:44:08 PM »
CDC warns of aggressive cannibal rats facing shortage of garbage to eat
Officials say rats have resorted to open warfare and eating their young as closures reduce edible waste
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/us-city-lockdowns-rat-aggression-lack-food-waste

—-
“War on motorists, at last.”
https://twitter.com/binanimals/status/1265042664895983616
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.