Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences

[blumenkraft]

... warfare ...

Dat wording though. 

[blumenkraft]

Rhodes Center Podcast: Possibilities for a Post-Covid Economy

[bluice]

Rhodes Center Podcast: Possibilities for a Post-Covid Economy

That was interesting, thanks for sharing BK

I also liked the Economist’s take on China’s experiences of the ”90% economy”

[Alexander555]

The 2th wave in Iran is probably bad news for the entire Middle-East. The number of cases is still growing fast in the US. The same for several countries in South-America. In Asia and Afrika you still have plenty countries with fast growing numbers. That makes it only more dangerous for a strong outbreake in the NH in the next winter. And that would be a total economic disaster i think.

[Tom_Mazanec]

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

As of May 31:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -51.2 percent on May 29, down from -40.4 percent on May 28. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from -43.3 percent to -56.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 0.73 percentage points.

[vox_mundi]

[etienne]

I wonder what will be the importance of Amazon, and generally speaking of Internet orders once Covid19 will be over. Internet is very useful for spare parts and replacement of existing products, including clothes, but for new ones, it still is nice to have a shop to get more information, to try the product... I think it will go back much more than what most people expect, like a little bit higher than what it was before the pandemia. I'm not so happy with the things I have ordered because of the lockdown, and the other things I would have ordered them on Internet anyway.

[kassy]

Your local shop also makes money that the owners are likely going to spend locally and Amazon not so much.

[blumenkraft]

thanks for sharing BK

Likewise!

[Alexander555]

I think these protests are going to have severe economic implications. That will push millions more into unemployment. In Los Angeles they already had a new spike before the protests.  https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articl'es/2020-06-01/george-floyd-protests-likely-to-cause-increase-in-coronavirus-cases

[Tom_Mazanec]

Alexander, what would be the “method” of the protests costing millions of jobs? Why should people be fired just because some idiots are acting out? I could see thousands of people from businesses where the damage was the straw that broke the camel’s back, but millions?

[vox_mundi]

Wells Fargo, Worried About Defaults, Stops Making Loans to Most Independent Car Dealerships
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/02/wells-fargo-cuts-back-from-making-loans-to-independent-car-dealerships.html

Wells Fargo, one of the biggest lenders for new and used car purchases in the U.S., sent letters to hundreds of independent auto dealerships last month telling them that the San Francisco-based company was dropping them as a customer, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

A Wells Fargo spokeswoman confirmed that the bank, which only makes auto loans through car dealerships, will no longer accept loan applications from most independent shops. Independent dealerships typically sell used cars, unlike franchise dealerships that focus on new vehicles from specific manufacturers.

The bank had "an obligation to review our business practices in light of the economic uncertainty presented by COVID-19 and have let the majority of our independent dealer customers know that we will suspend accepting applications from them," Natalie Brown, the spokeswoman, said in an email.

Before the pandemic took hold, Wells Fargo was growing its auto lending business. Auto loan origination at the bank climbed 19% in the first quarter to $6.5 billion.

[Sigmetnow]

Boston Marathon canceled for first time in its 124-year history
May 28, 2020

The Boston Marathon has been canceled for the first time in its 124-year history due to the coronavirus pandemic, Mayor Marty Walsh and race organizers announced Thursday. The annual race will now be held virtually in September.

"There's no way to hold this usual race format without bringing large numbers of people into close proximity," Walsh said during a Thursday press conference, according to CBS Boston. "And while our goal and our hope was to make progress and contain the virus in recovering our economy, this kind of event would not be responsible or realistic on September 14, or any time this year."

In March, the famed marathon was postponed from April 20 to September 14. But the race will now occur solely as a virtual event, the marathon's organizer, the Boston Athletic Association (BAA), said in a press release.
...
”The @BAA has announced that the 124th Boston Marathon will be held as a virtual event, following Boston Mayor Martin Walsh’s cancellation of the marathon as a mass participation road running event due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
— Boston Marathon (@bostonmarathon) May 28, 2020

About 30,000 people run the marathon each year and about a million spectators cheer them on, CBS Boston reported. Walsh said the marathon brings in over $200 million to the city's economy each year and raises $36 million for charitable organizations.

Participants who originally registered and paid an entry fee for the April 20 event will be offered a full refund and can participate in the "virtual alternative" race, the BAA said. Athletes can participate in the virtual race between September 7 and 14.

Those who participate in the virtual race must complete the 26.2 miles within six hours and provide proof of their time to the BAA to receive a shirt, medal and other items. ...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boston-marathon-canceled-first-time-124-year-history/

——-
U.S. savings rate hits record 33% as coronavirus causes Americans to stockpile cash, curb spending

The coronavirus crisis has Americans hoarding more money than ever as widespread fear paralyzes consumer spending habits.

The personal savings rate hit a historic 33% in April, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. This rate — how much people save as a percentage of their disposable income — is by far the highest since the department started tracking in the 1960s. April’s mark is up from 12.7% in March.

The swiftness and severity of a U.S. economic recovery hinges on whether consumers continue to stockpile cash or start to spend again.

“There is a tremendous uncertainty and virus fear that is lingering, and that is restraining people’s desire to go out and spend as they normally would,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

The previous record savings rate was 17.3% in May 1975, according to FactSet. The savings rate was elevated above 13% throughout most of the early 1970s. The increase in savings came as spending declined by a record 13.6% in April.

U.S. consumers have amassed savings as the deadly coronavirus causes unprecedented economic and societal disruption. The deadly virus — which forced a government mandated shutdown of the economy — has caused more than 40 million Americans to file for unemployment since the virus was declared a pandemic.

“The saving rate is the residual of an extraordinary event,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, told CNBC.

With the U.S. consumer accounting for more two-thirds of the economy, the speed and robustness of economic recovery depends on whether the increase in savings is a result of the shutdown or reflects a more structural change in consumer habits, analysts told CNBC. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/us-savings-rate-hits-record-33percent-as-coronavirus-causes-americans-to-stockpile-cash-curb-spending.html

[vox_mundi]

Antidepressant Zoloft and Generic Version Sertraline In Short Supply, FDA Says
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1223356

The shortage follows a sharp increase in reports of depression and anxiety in the U.S.

A spike in demand for anxiety and depression drugs has led to shortages of some forms of the commonly used antidepressant Zoloft and its generic, sertraline.

Reports of the shortage, posted Friday on the Food and Drug Administration's website, come as a new survey published Wednesday from the Johns Hopkins University shows a major increase in the feelings of distress and despair among adults in the United States.

... Accord Healthcare, Inc. said it's unable to obtain the active ingredient for the drug "due to the impacts caused by COVID-19." The company estimated the shortage will last 60 days.

Drugmaker Lupin also cited a shortage of the active ingredient, as well as an increase in demand for the product, which is expected to be on backorder for several months.

The shortages follow a 21 percent rise in the number of prescriptions filled per week between mid-February and mid-March for medicines to treat anxiety, depression and insomnia, according to Express Scripts, a prescription benefit plan provider. The company said the increase peaked the week of March 15, just after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

Also Wednesday, a survey published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found the percentage of U.S. adults who say they're feeling anxious, sad, depressed or uncertain has more than tripled in the past two years.

[vox_mundi]

Vulnerability of UK's Food Supply Chains Exposed by COVID-19, Study Reveals
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-vulnerability-uk-food-chains-exposed.html

The UK has been left "dangerously dependent" on just two EU countries for its fresh vegetable imports, a new study on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the UK food system has revealed.

The study, published in Nature Food, also reveals that insufficient capacity in domestic food production, just-in-time supply chains and Brexit-related labour market challenges have all resulted in a weakened UK food system.

Building diversity and collaboration in the food system is essential for resilience in the COVID-19 recovery, the authors of the University of York study say.

The UK imports almost half of its food and 84% of its fresh fruit, and is heavily reliant on EU countries for vegetables and salads.

In particular, the UK is reliant on the Dover Strait maritime route and ferry services between Dover and Calais. Most importantly, it is "dangerously dependent" on the Netherlands and Spain for the majority of its fresh vegetable imports.

The report reveals that 83% of the lettuces we import come via Dover, along with 67% of tomatoes and 77% of strawberries.

The authors of the study warn the UK's lack of diversity in sourcing of products remains a point of "acute vulnerability."

... Furthermore, between 70,000 to 80,000 seasonal workers come to the UK from the EU every growing season to support the UK harvest.

"The UK migration policy and associated restrictions on seasonal workers was already causing concern for UK growers and farmers even before the pandemic.

Open Access: Philip Garnett et al. Vulnerability of the United Kingdom's food supply chains exposed by COVID-19, Nature Food (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-0097-7

[vox_mundi]

Migrant Worker Virus Exodus Plunges India's Factories Into Crisis
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/global-coronavirus-death-toll-nears-400000-live-updates-200606234426549.html

An acute shortage of workers has turned the roar of machines to a soft hum at a footwear factory near New Delhi, just one of thousands in India struggling to restart after an exodus of migrant workers during the virus lockdown.

India is slowly emerging from strict containment measures imposed in late March as leaders look to revive the battered economy, but manufacturers don't have enough workers to man the machinery.

The big cities - once an attractive destination for workers from poor, rural regions -- have been hit by reverse migration as millions of labourers flee back to their far-flung home villages, some uncertain if they will ever return.

--------------------------------

[Sigmetnow]

The US went into a recession in February, the National Bureau of Economic Research says, ending the longest economic expansion in American history.

It's official: The recession began in February

New York(CNN Business) The longest economic expansion in American history is officially over. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared Monday that the recession began in February.

The economy collapsed so rapidly that NBER wasted no time in announcing a recession, a stark contrast to previous downturns when the body took upwards of a year to declare what most people already knew. This was the fastest that NBER has declared any recession since the group began formal announcements in 1979.

Social distancing requirements imposed to fight the pandemic have crushed broad swaths of the US economy, from airlines and cruise ships to restaurants and Broadway shows.

"The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions," NBER wrote.

More than 42 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits. Major companies including JCPenney, J.Crew and Hertz have filed for bankruptcy. And economists are predicting GDP imploded at an annualized rate of 40% during the second quarter.

The pandemic marked an end to the mediocre but long recovery from the Great Recession. In July 2019, that expansion officially became the longest period of uninterrupted growth in US history dating back to 1854. It spanned 128 months, easily breaking the prior record of 120 months set between March 1991 and March 2001 during the dotcom boom.

Normally, economists define a recession as consecutive quarters of negative growth. The United States already endured one quarter of a shrinking economy, with GDP dropping by 5% during the first quarter. NBER decided not to wait for a second quarter of a contracting economy, although it is widely expected to happen during the second quarter. The body also declared that while the economy peaked on a monthly basis in February, the quarterly peak happened in the fourth quarter. That disparity "reflects the unusual nature of this recession," NBER said.

"The economy contracted so sharply in March," NBER said, that by the first quarter GDP and employment was "significantly below" the levels of the fourth quarter of 2019. ... 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/08/economy/recession-economy-coronavirus-nber/index.html

[vox_mundi]

The World Bank said today that humanity is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that has spread with astonishing speed and will result in the largest shock the global economy has witnessed in more than seven decades.

Millions of people are expected to be pushed into extreme poverty, the Associated Press reports.

In an updated “Global Economic Prospects,” the World Bank projected that global economic activity will shrink by 5.2% this year, the deepest recession since a 13.8% global contraction in 1945-46 at the end of World War II.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects#:~:text=Global%20Outlook,-Download%20highlights&text=The%20baseline%20forecast%20envisions%20a,economies%20will%20shrink%20this%20year.

The 5.2% downturn this year will be the fourth worst global downturn over the past 150 years, exceeded only by the Great Depression of the 1930s and the periods after World War I and World War II when the economies of many war-torn countries were devastated and the United States and other nations demobilized after massive defense buildups.

Because of the steep contraction, the amount of income per person is expected to fall sharply, with more than 90% of emerging market and developing countries seeing per capita incomes declining.

For all countries, the drop in per capital incomes is expected to average 6.2%, much larger than the 2.9% fall during the 2009 financial recession.

Reflecting this downward pressure on incomes, World Bank economists said they expected the number of people in extreme poverty could grow by between 70 million and 100 million this year.

The 5.2% estimate for a decline in global output is 7.7 percentage-points more severe than the World Bank’s January estimate that the world economy would grow by a modest 2.5% this year.

For the United States, the updated World Bank forecast is for GDP to fall 7% this year, before growing 3.9% in 2021. That estimate is similar to top forecasters for the National Association for Business Economics who forecast a 5.9% drop in for the U.S. this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jun/08/george-floyd-protests-black-lives-matter-donald-trump-defund-police-latest-news-updates

[Sigmetnow]

Could Unemployed Americans Get Paid to Return to Work?
With so many people earning more money on unemployment than they did at their jobs, Americans may need an extra incentive to return to the workforce.

Between mid-March and May, millions of Americans were forced out of work by COVID-19. But now that the country is largely reopening and jobs are getting added, it begs the question: Will unemployed Americans actually want to go back to their employers?

Ever since the CARES Act was passed, unemployed workers have been eligible for a $600 weekly boost in unemployment on top of their regular benefit. As such, some people have actually been earning more money on unemployment than they did at their previous jobs. And while that $600 weekly boost is set to expire at the end of July, lawmakers are pushing to extend it all the way into January of 2021. In fact, retaining that weekly unemployment boost is one of the most notable provisions of the HEROES Act, which also calls for a follow-up round of stimulus payments.

It's for this reason that a new bill was recently introduced to entice workers to return to their jobs and get off unemployment benefits. The Reopening America by Supporting Workers and Businesses Act of 2020 calls for a $1,200 reemployment bonus, so to speak. Workers who return to a job will be entitled to a one-time payment of $1,200, or two weekly payments of $600. But is that really such a good deal?

Is a one-time boost worth the struggle and risk?
While it's true that some Americans may be eager to stay on unemployment benefits right now because they've seen an increase in income as a result, that's not the only reason workers may be hesitant to get back to their jobs. Returning to work is, for some people, a risky prospect from a COVID-19 perspective, particularly those who are customer-facing or work in environments that don't lend to social distancing.

Then there's child care to think about. Many camp programs are closed for the summer, and for those who don't where to put their kids in July and August, returning to work is an impossible ask. Furthermore, it's too soon to tell whether schools will reopen fully in September, and if they don't, these same child care issues could extend well into the latter part of the year. As such, it's understandable that some workers would rather collect unemployment benefits than grapple with the risks and challenges of going back to a job.

Of course, many people rely on their employers to provide health insurance, so that alone may be a motivator to get back into the workforce. But if the aforementioned problems remain unaddressed, a $1,200 payment alone won't be enough to overcome them.

Still, having too many people out of work as the economy reopens is bad for businesses, and is apt to slow our collective recovery. As such, lawmakers may need to get together to come up with a proposal that makes it more feasible and enticing for workers to return to their jobs -- and do a lot better than a single $1,200 payment.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/09/could-unemployed-americans-get-paid-to-return-to-w.aspx

[Sigmetnow]

Many epidemiologists are already comfortable going to the doctor, socializing with small groups outside or bringing in mail, despite the coronavirus. But unless there’s an effective vaccine or treatment first, it will be more than a year before many say they will be willing to go to concerts, sporting events or religious services. And some may never greet people with hugs or handshakes again.

These are the personal opinions of a group of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who were asked by The New York Times when they expect to resume 20 activities of daily life, assuming that the pandemic and the public health response to it unfold as they expect.

When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html

[vox_mundi]

[dnem]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Clever, well-done satirical send up of the Aussie government response. Worth watching if you like that sort of thing.

[gerontocrat]

Chickzilla!! be afraid, be very afraid.

'Like a Stephen King movie': feral chickens return to plague New Zealand village
Lockdown may have vanquished Covid-19, but it has enabled the birds to make an unwanted comeback

Their raucous clucking deprives residents of sleep. They leave the neighbourhood “wrecked”. And food left out for them attracts “rats the size of cats” to an otherwise peaceful, leafy suburb.

New Zealand’s national lockdown to quell the spread of Covid-19 appears to have vanquished the virus, but it has had one unintended consequence: the re-emergence of a plague – not of frogs or locusts but of feral chickens, a flock of which is once again menacing an area of west Auckland.

Residents of Titirangi, a suburb of fewer than 4,000 people and about 20-30 feral chickens, emerged from New Zealand’s coronavirus lockdown to find a nightmare they thought had ended was not over. The feral chickens, which council contractors had been working to gently capture and rehome since their numbers peaked in 2019, had multiplied during the shutdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/like-a-stephen-king-movie-feral-chickens-return-to-plague-new-zealand-village

[kassy]

They should get some pigs to distract them. 

[Sigmetnow]

Fed says it will keep stimulus coming for years

New York(CNN Business) The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday and committed to maintaining its unprecedented stimulus plan until the economy "has weathered recent events."
That means it could be years until interest rates rise again. The Fed's "dot plot", which reflects the forecasts of the central bank's policy makers, isn't showing any rate hikes this year or in 2021. Even in 2022, the majority of policymakers believe rates will remain at the current rate levels.
"We're not thinking about raising rates -- we're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters during Wednesday's press conference.

So far, the central bank has also opposed negative interest rates, which other developed world central banks have had to revert to. But voices supporting negative rates from within the Federal Reserve network are getting louder.

The market seemed pleased with the central bank's update, and stocks briefly jumped. Lower interest rates allow companies to borrow at lower rates, which is good for the stock market.
The Fed also said it would increase its purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to keep the market functioning smoothly.
"For now it gives the market what it wanted and needed," Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management.

The Fed slashed interest rates to near zero in March at the outset of the coronavirus pandemic. Since then, the central bank has committed billions of dollars to supporting financial markets, businesses, and state and local governments.
But the central bank, as well as the federal government, might have to do more to get the economy back on its feet, Powell reiterated in Wednesday's press conference.

Unemployment crisis
One of the Fed's chief goals is to foster economic conditions that achieve both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment.
The central bank acknowledged the "tremendous human and economic hardship" that the coronavirus pandemic has brought upon people around the world. By December, the Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 9.3%, down from 13.3% in May, but still substantially above the 3.5% rate from February -- a near 50-year low.

Millions of people won't get their old jobs back, "and there may not be a job for them for some time," said Powell during the news conference.
Even by the end of 2022, the unemployment rate is still projected to be 5.5%, far higher than at the start of this year.
Powell reiterated that some demographic group, notably women, black and Hispanic workers, are bearing the brunt of the unemployment crisis.

The Fed doesn't expect the economic difficulties will let up anytime soon: It updated its economic projections for the year, predicting a 6.5% drop in gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, in 2020.
But Powell rejected comparisons to the Great Depression, telling reporters he doesn't think it "is a good example or likely outcome for a model of what's happening here at all, I really don't."
Part of the uniqueness of the pandemic recession, for example, is that in a way it's manmade: The economy was artificially switched off to prevent the spread of the virus.
"The path ahead for the economy is highly uncertain and continues to depend to a significant degree on the path of the pandemic," Powell said.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/10/economy/federal-reserve-june-meeting/index.html

[blumenkraft]

Stocks set to plunge at the open on virus second wave concern, Dow futures down 1500 points

Link >> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

[Sigmetnow]

The state of Texas has reopened its businesses, and says local governments cannot override that order.  Even though Houston is seeing a sharp rise in hospitalizations,  the most the city can do at the moment is warn people about it.

Texas' most populous county unveils COVID-19 warning system

HOUSTON (AP) - Houston area officials on Thursday unveiled a new color-coded threat level warning system for the public amid growing concerns that local COVID-19 related hospitalizations are at their highest levels since the pandemic began and have steadily risen as the state has continued to reopen.

“I want the reopening to be successful. I want the economy to be resilient. But I’m growing increasingly concerned that we may be approaching the precipice of a disaster,” Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said about rising local hospital admissions due to the coronavirus.

In Harris County, where Houston is located, the number of people hospitalized with suspected and confirmed cases of COVID-19 has gone from 479 on May 1, when Texas started to reopen its businesses, to 776 as of Wednesday, an increase of 62%, according to data from the Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council, a state group that coordinates the region’s emergency response to disasters.
...

“The state has preempted local governments from hitting the brakes. What we have is our voice and providing information and monitoring the situation” and encouraging people to wear masks and engage in social distancing and proper hygiene, Turner said.

A spokesman for Gov. Greg Abbott didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment on whether the state will take any specific actions regarding the hospitalization increases in Harris County or if the state would allow local officials to resume setting their own COVID-19 restrictions.

Abbott this week reiterated he was “concerned but not alarmed” in Texas. He has not signaled any intention of putting social or business restrictions back in place. ...

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/11/texas-most-populous-county-unveils-covid-19-warnin/

[vox_mundi]

Britain's GDP falls 20.4% in April as economy is paralysed by lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/12/britains-gdp-falls-204-in-april-as-economy-is-paralysed-by-lockdown

Latest figures reflect many businesses closing down and workers placed on furlough

[be cause]

my neighbours have to spend their furlough in Curlough .. the next townland .. b.c.

[vox_mundi]

More time to practice the accordion? 

[vox_mundi]

So Long, New York: Pandemic and Protests Spark New Exodus to Suburbs
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exodus-suburbs-remote-working-pandemic-protests

The rise of remote working during the coronavirus crisis has led many to rethink whether they need to live so close to the office

-------------------------------

... Green Acres is the place to be.
Farm livin' is the life for me.
Land spreadin' out so far and wide
Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside.

[vox_mundi]

Lufthansa to Cut 22,000 Full-time Jobs: Reports
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/A749FAC3-164F-4BD3-983A-D0846A7E80A9

Deutsche Lufthansa will cut 22,000 full-time jobs, the airline said Thursday according to media reports. Half of the job losses will be in Germany as it said that it would operate 100 fewer aircraft following the coronavirus crisis, according to reports.

-----------------------------

[Iain]

Vox,

Steady, there.

You may not have been aware of the sectarian significance of that accordion band when you posted.

They are Orange marchers.

Iain

[vox_mundi]

No offense Iain.

I have several blind spots and that apparently is one of them.

My focus was entirely on musical instruments; no deeper.

From a distance I can't tell the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite either.

All I know is they make damn fine beer in Ireland; and if the pubs were open in these parts, I'd have a couple.

[Sigmetnow]

Texas Has Shifted to an “It’s Your Responsibility” Pandemic Plan

As new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations reach their highest levels yet, the state is relying less on restrictions and more on individual decisions—in ways that raise the risks for Texans as a group.

In late March, as “flatten the curve” served as a national mantra, Texans largely accepted strict mandatory public safety measures to protect themselves and their neighbors—and especially their elders—from a disease that had wreaked havoc throughout the world. While the order was in place, Texas avoided the sort of exponential growth seen in New York and Northern Italy.

As cities now face rising hospitalizations and case counts, though, the politics around orders that close down businesses and prevent public gatherings have changed. When heavy restrictions were in place, armed right-wing protesters showed up everywhere from bars to hair salons demanding the right to buy a drink or get a haircut. More recently, a broad coalition of demonstrators against police brutality, galvanized by the killing of longtime Houstonian George Floyd at the hands of the Minneapolis police, have gathered, often packed closely together (though outdoors), for protests across the state.

Last weekend, the Washington Post opinions section published a column headlined “Social Distancing Is Over.” The piece argued that “we’ll never be able to lock down our cities again; once you’ve let the cat out of the bag, kitty won’t allow himself to be stuffed back in.” If mass protests are happening, the Post’s columnist argues, then on what moral authority can leaders say that church gatherings shouldn’t, or that a restaurant owner who wants to pay her bills must keep her business closed?
...

In Austin, public health experts point not just to the state’s reopening policy as a reason for the rise in infections, but also to residents relaxing their individual approaches to social distancing and mask-wearing. This brings to mind Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick’s suggestion at the start of reopening that combating the disease was, ultimately, a matter of personal responsibility. (Patrick’s comments came not long after he suggested that seniors should “be willing to take a chance on [their] survival” for the sake of the economy.)

A version of “personal responsibility” that looks like “I’ll take responsibility for my risk, and you take responsibility for your risk,” though, neglects the reality of a pandemic. Responsibility may be personal—but risk is communal. Everyone can both get sick with the virus and pass it on to someone else. A person who gets infected while packed into an overcrowded bar can pass the disease to a supermarket cashier who is otherwise steadfastly avoiding high-risk situations. A healthy young person whose sense of personal responsibility leaves him comfortable spending a leisurely evening in a bustling restaurant can infect a roommate who works in a nursing home. ...

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texas-has-shifted-to-an-its-your-responsibility-pandemic-plan/

[Iain]

Vox, no offence taken. Cheers.

[vox_mundi]

Coronavirus a Recipe for Disaster for German Potatoes
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/coronavirus-cases-exceed-8-million-worldwide-live-updates-200616003326282.html

German demand for potatoes and potato products has collapsed during the coronavirus crisis, with the vegetable being used as animal feed or for making biogas instead, an industry body said.

There had been a "catastrophic reduction in sales" of frozen, chilled and dry potato products, the German Association of the Fruit, Vegetable and Potato Processing Industry (BOGK) said.

Germany is the biggest producer of potatoes in the European Union and a huge consumer.

---------------------------

More Than 600,000 Lose Jobs In the UK
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/coronavirus-cases-exceed-8-million-worldwide-live-updates-200616003326282.html

The number of people on British company payrolls fell by more than 600,000 in April and May as the coronavirus lockdown hit the labour market, and vacancies plunged by the most on record, official data showed.

The jobless rate unexpectedly held at 3.9 percent over the three months to April - despite a record slump in overall economic output during that period - as firms turned to the government's job retention scheme to keep employees on their books.

Meanwhile, the number of people claiming job-related benefits also increased by a monthly 23.3 percent in May to 2.8 million.

[vox_mundi]

U.S. Meatpackers Exported Record Amount of Pork to China While Warning About Supply Shortages
https://www.axios.com/meatpackers-pork-china-coronavirus-fc1dd5eb-5107-46f6-8f03-1d32de2b9ec0.html

U.S. companies exported a record 129,000 tons of pork to China in April, even as meat producers warned that the effects of the coronavirus pandemic would deplete the industry's supply chain, the New York Times reports, citing data from Panjiva.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/business/meat-industry-china-pork.html?smid=tw-share

Why it matters: U.S. consumers had to deal with meat shortages as many meatpacking plants became coronavirus hot spots. The industry lobbied the Trump administration to intervene to reverse plant closures mandated by local and state officials.

Yet despite their public warnings of an impending shortage, meatpackers did not disclose "that keeping the plants open would also protect their long-term investments in exporting to a country that is vital to their growth," according to the Times.

Since the outbreak began, 25,523 meatpacking workers have tested positive for the coronavirus, while 89 have died, according to the Food & Environment Reporting Network

... “It wasn’t that there was not enough supply. It was that the supply was being sent abroad.”

[vox_mundi]

Navy Rushes ‘Unprecedented’ 1,600 Reservists To Shipyards As COVID Guts Workforce
https://breakingdefense.com/2020/06/navy-rushes-1600-reservists-to-shipyards-as-covid-guts-workforce/

WASHINGTON: The Navy has lost 50,000 workdays a month at its four public shipyards during the COVID-19 crisis, sparking concerns over delays in repairing and refitting nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines.

This spring, less than 30 percent of workers at UK-based Babcock Marine were showing up for work during the height of the COVID outbreak, leading to setbacks in the work schedule.

In order to keep that work on track, Navy leaders have taken the extraordinary step of calling up 1,629 Navy Reservists to fill in the gap at the shipyards.

Since the reservists, however, will need to follow the same social distancing and PPE rules as the civilian workers, “their activation really only helps make up for the about 25% of shipyard workers who haven’t been able to come into work or need to shift to more isolated duties because their age or pre-existing conditions make them more vulnerable to the effects of COVID-19,” Clark noted.

The reserve call-up, the largest in the Navy’s history, could last as long as a year Navy officials say, in order to ensure that critical work on those platforms gets done.

... The deployments will begin in July, with all of the call-ups on-site at Navy-operated shipyards in Maine, Virginia, Washington state and Hawaii.

[Sigmetnow]

U.S. passenger rail service
Amtrak is ending daily service to hundreds of stations. Blame the coronavirus pandemic, the railroad says.

Amtrak is ending daily service to hundreds of stations outside the Northeast, and you can blame the coronavirus pandemic, the railroad said this week.

Starting Oct. 1, most Amtrak long-distance trains will operate three times a week instead of daily, the company said in a memo to employees Monday.

The carrier is also planning to enter fiscal year 2021 with reduced train frequencies in the Northeast Corridor, the busiest in its network, and on its state-funded routes, the company said.

The downsized operations come as Amtrak prepares to cut up to 20 percent of its staff in response to the financial crisis left by the pandemic. Demand for service — and the company’s revenue — plummeted to historic lows starting in mid-March as states implemented strict coronavirus shutdowns.

“Congress is not going to support us indefinitely to run mostly empty trains,” Roger Harris, Amtrak’s executive vice president and chief marketing and revenue officer, said in the memo to employees. “We need to demonstrate that we are using our resources efficiently and responsibly.”

Amtrak said last month that it needs nearly $1.5 billion in supplemental funding from the federal government to maintain “minimum service levels,” anticipating ridership will not recover to pre-pandemic levels in fiscal 2021. Even with the supplemental funding, the company said, it would need to cut service and personnel to stay afloat.

Amtrak estimates that ridership in the next fiscal year may drop to 16 million, or roughly 50 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

Ridership was down 95 percent during the height of the pandemic, and the Northeast Corridor, which had several coronavirus hot spots, was hit especially hard. Even as states begin to reopen, ridership remains down 90 percent. ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/amtrak-is-ending-daily-service-to-hundreds-of-stations-blame-the-coronavirus-pandemic-the-railroad-says/ar-BB15zVal

[Sigmetnow]

Consequence:  A future with reduced “massing” in our mass transportation?

Virgin Hyperloop (@virginhyperloop) 6/17/20, 11:24 AM
As we look towards a post-COVID world, public transportation needs to adapt and evolve. With Virgin Hyperloop, dynamically scheduled pods could anticipate and control ridership to ensure physical distancing, when needed. Read more:

Virgin Hyperloop Is Designing Travel That Will Enable You To Work From Anywhere
https://www.forbes.com/sites/martineparis/2020/06/01/virgin-hyperloop-is-designing-travel-that-will-enable-you-to-work-from-anywhere/amp/

https://twitter.com/virginhyperloop/status/1273275387565322240
Image below; brief video at the link

[Alexander555]

Look like the US is going to be in trouble. And a 2th wave is moving in, and probably a big 3th wave next winter. Already 20 million people without income. And that's whithout what's happening at the black market. That's probably even more than 20 million people. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-labor-market-recovery-stalling-second-wave-of-layoffs-underway-idUSKBN23P0G2

[Alexander555]

400 000 usd for 3 weeks in the hospital. Looks like they know very well that the bills go to the government or the insurer. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/nyregion/coronavirus-billing-nyc.html?

[vox_mundi]

The Latest Pandemic Shortage: Coins Are The New Toilet Paper
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/21/880958665/the-latest-pandemic-shortage-coins-are-the-new-toilet-paper

Just as supplies of toilet paper are finally getting back to normal, the coronavirus has triggered another shortage of something we typically take for granted: pocket change.

Banks around the country are running low on nickels, dimes, quarters and even pennies. And the Federal Reserve, which supplies banks, has been forced to ration scarce supplies.

"It was just a surprise," said Gay Dempsey, who runs the Bank of Lincoln County in Tennessee when she learned of the rationing order. "Nobody was expecting it."

Dempsey's bank typically dispenses 400 to 500 rolls of pennies each week. Under the rationing order, her allotment was cut down to just 100 rolls, with similar cutbacks in nickels, dimes and quarters.

... Rural banks in particular seem to be getting shortchanged, according to Colin Barrett, CEO of the Tennessee Bankers Association.

Rep. John Rose, R-Tenn., sounded the alarm last week during a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee.

"My fear is that customers who use these banks will react very poorly," Rose said. "And I know that we all don't want to wake up to headlines in the near future such as 'Banks Out Of Money.'"

... The Mint produced fewer coins than usual this spring in an effort to protect employees from infection. But the larger problem — as with many other pandemic shortages — is distribution.

During the lockdown, many automatic coin-sorting machines that people typically use to recycle loose change were off-limits. And with many businesses closed, unused coins piled up in darkened cash drawers, pants pockets and on nightstands, even as banks went begging.

"The flow of coins through the economy ... kind of stopped," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said.

... While a growing number of people rely on credit cards or smart phone apps for many transactions today, the coin crunch is a reminder that sometimes you just need change.

"Cash is still king, I guess," Dempsey mused.

[vox_mundi]

[Sigmetnow]

"The steep contraction in economic activity and fiscal revenues, along with the sizable fiscal support, has further stretched public finances, with global public debt projected to reach more than 100% of GDP this year."
IMF slashes its forecasts for the global economy and warns of soaring debt levels

The International Monetary Fund slashed its economic forecasts once again on Wednesday and warned that public finances will deteriorate significantly as governments attempt to combat the fallout from the coronavirus crisis.

The IMF now estimates a contraction of 4.9% in global gross domestic product in 2020, lower than the 3% fall it predicted in April.

"The Covid-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast," the IMF said Wednesday in its World Economic Outlook update.

The Fund also downgraded its GDP forecast for 2021. It now expects a growth rate of 5.4% from the 5.8% forecast made in April (the positive reading reflects that economic activity will be coming from a lower base following 2020′s heavy contraction).

The Washington-based institution explained the downward revisions were due to social-distancing measures likely remaining in place during the second half of the year, with productivity and supply chains being hit. And in those nations still grappling with high infection rates, the Fund expects that longer lockdowns will dent economic activity even more.
...
[T]he United States is expected to contract by 8% this year. The Fund had estimated a contraction of 5.9% in April.  Similarly, the Fund also downgraded its forecasts for the euro zone, with the economy now seen shrinking by 10.2% in 2020.  Brazil, Mexico and South Africa are also expected to contract by 9.1%, 10.5% and 8%, respectively. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/imf-global-economy-to-contract-with-coronavirus-recovery-slow.html

[Sigmetnow]

Bloomberg on Twitter: "Saudi Arabia said it will allow the Hajj to go forward this year, but only for a limited number of Muslims already in the kingdom https://t.co/utyEb1o9gn "
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1275178020198891523

[Sigmetnow]

Which students in the U.S. will be returning to school this fall is still an open question.

June 24 coronavirus news

Washington state is issuing new coronavirus guidelines for colleges and universities as they prepare for students to return in the fall.

“Their return to campus won't be in the usual situation. Changes are afoot,” Gov. Jay Inslee said Wednesday.

All students will be asked if they have Covid-19-related symptoms before being allowed back on school grounds. Social distancing is required, and many larger lecture classes may be switching to an online format.

“We will be building community on campus, but we'll be doing it in a very different way,” said University of Washington President Ana Mari Cauce.

Some context: The new guidelines come as a statewide mask requirement comes into effect for public places in Washington on Friday. ...

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-24-20-intl/index.html

[gerontocrat]

As at 26 June 2020,

- The NASDAQ Composite Index is 22% higher than a year ago,

- The S & P 500 Index is 2.3% higher than a year ago,

- The DJ 30 index is still 6% lower than a year ago.

The 30 stocks which make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average are:
3M, American Express, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cisco, Coca-Cola, Disney, Dow, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, McDonald’s, Merck, Microsoft, Nike, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Raytheon Technologies, Unitedhealth, Verizon, Visa, Walgreens, and Walmart.

I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.

[blumenkraft]

I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.

The lesson here is, the Fed will always bail out the stock market because they (still wrongly) think this is what represents the economy.