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Author Topic: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences  (Read 58098 times)

dnem

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #50 on: March 05, 2020, 07:16:08 PM »
Next Comes The “Turbulent Twenties”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/next-comes-the-turbulent-twenties/
Quote
Accordingly, ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
 Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.

This is a bracing read, but Peak Prosperity's business model is to put alarming content in front of its paywall and then ask for money to get behind the paywall where the magic, secret strategies to deal with it all can be found. FWIW.

Bernard

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #51 on: March 06, 2020, 11:48:33 AM »
Quote from: Tor Bejnar
With the possibility of "S type" Covid-19 dominating (instead of "L type"), per this Vox_mundi post, maybe the Covid-19 pandemic won't be "similar to the [1918 flu pandemic]."
On the other hand, it took 1 month to mutate into 2 varieties in a population of ~ 500,000 infected.

Already posted in the covid-19 thread : https://nextstrain.org/ncov
176 different genomes sampled as of today

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #52 on: March 06, 2020, 03:44:11 PM »
WTI Crude @ $ 44.10 a barrel
Nymex LNG @ $ 1.75 million BTU

DJ down 13.55% in the last month,
Euro Stoxx 50 down 15.21% in the last month,
FTSE 100 down 14.14% in the last month.

That's gotta hurt.

Being clobbered by slowing demand & slowing supply = double ouch.

Half an hour later WTI Crude @ $ 43.87 a barrel. Do I smell panic? Rest of the day might be interesting.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 04:01:07 PM by gerontocrat »
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #53 on: March 06, 2020, 08:43:38 PM »
WTI Crude 41.36  :o

We have not seen anything yet wait until airlines , tourism and entertainment venues  start collapsing.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #54 on: March 07, 2020, 01:24:20 AM »
"Flutter" is a self-induced harmonic vibration pattern. This instability can grow to very large oscillations before failure and collapse.

---------------------------

Wild Market Swings Are Becoming the 'New Normal' Amid Coronavirus Concerns
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/06/coronavirus-latest-updates-outbreak.html

Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for five days straight in the face of a coronavirus panic, and Wall Street strategists say get used to it.

In the index's history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #55 on: March 07, 2020, 08:11:25 PM »
THIS IS IT!
https://goldswitzerland.com/this-is-it/
Quote
The coming downturn will not take 40 years. When bubbles burst, everything unravels very quickly. It could take say 3-7 years for the Dow to come down 90% or more. In 1929-32 it took less than 3 years for the Dow to fall 90%. And the situation today is much more serious when it comes to overvaluations, debts, deficits etc.

Doug Casey: The “Greater Depression” Is Coming
https://www.caseyresearch.com/daily-dispatch/doug-casey-the-greater-depression-is-coming/
Quote
Rather than let the market adjust itself, government typically starts the process all over again with a new and larger “stimulus package.” The more often this happens, the more ingrained become the distortions in the way people consume and invest, and the nastier the eventual depression.
This is why I predict the Greater Depression will be… well… greater. This is going to be one for the record books. Much different, much longer lasting, and much worse than the unpleasantness of 1929-1946.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 09:11:21 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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etienne

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #56 on: March 07, 2020, 10:32:41 PM »
I am not sure that it makes sense to compare what is happening now and what happened almost a century ago. We are much more dependent than we used to be. Who can say that he produces more than 10% of its food ? It was very different. We are also much more people than a century ago, and climate change makes everything worse. I don't have a clue for the future.

Alexander555

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #57 on: March 08, 2020, 07:59:16 AM »
Saudi-Arabia started a price war on the oil market, because of a failed meeting. All quota are of the table. That will flood the market. The same time the cornavirus spreads rapidly across the globe. A quarter of all Italians are already in lockdown, more supply chains halted. I think we will see a global lockdown before the end of the year.

El Cid

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #58 on: March 08, 2020, 09:12:14 AM »
This will cause a recession in 2020 for sure. Also pretty sure that 2021 will bring a new upcycle in the global economy. This COVID outbreak is a typical outside shock not an inherent weakness, a sort of black swan. Once the shock is over, the economy will return to growth. No 3-7 or 40 year depression. Governments will use huge fiscal stimulus financed by printing money. This is going to be deep but quick

Alexander555

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #59 on: March 08, 2020, 10:29:14 AM »
It's an inherent weakness, until 2018 there was no african swine fever in Asia. And now it's in almost every country in Asia. The frequency of outbreaks will be much higher in the future on every continent.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #60 on: March 08, 2020, 12:02:55 PM »
This will cause a recession in 2020 for sure. Also pretty sure that 2021 will bring a new upcycle in the global economy. This COVID outbreak is a typical outside shock not an inherent weakness, a sort of black swan. Once the shock is over, the economy will return to growth. No 3-7 or 40 year depression. Governments will use huge fiscal stimulus financed by printing money. This is going to be deep but quick
There is systemic weakness. If Covid19 has not popped the bubble now something else would have next year.
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be cause

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #61 on: March 08, 2020, 12:47:41 PM »
El Cid ,
printing money stops working .. ask the inter-war Germans or Mugabe's Zimbabweans . The dollar is already losing it's value . So is oil . The Renminbi looks like the winning currency if one still exists . The inherent weakness(es) in the global economy cannot handle even a glimpse of a black swan event .
   b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

El Cid

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #62 on: March 08, 2020, 08:08:08 PM »
We shall see friends.

You all lean towards apocalypse and that hadows your thinking  - me says.
Governments have not used there huge powers for many years. They can and will create huge fiscal stimulus. They are not out of firepower at all. Fiscal stimulus works and has always worked.

Alexander555

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #63 on: March 08, 2020, 09:13:38 PM »
One thing we learned from the coronavirus. As soon there is a shortage of something, they all close their borders.

be cause

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #64 on: March 09, 2020, 01:07:34 AM »
bond yields slide  to oblivion , oil fracking off , SnP future froze at -5% .. thank goodness it's all going so well .  Nikkei down 666 .. credit heading into the abyss .. the girls chat on Bloomberg . nite nite .. b.c.

 .. and then there's a virus .. wish it was digital .. wash your hands ..

 .. now dow futures down 1000+  4.2%
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 01:13:33 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

wili

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #65 on: March 09, 2020, 03:10:20 AM »
Yup. Australia and Japan both down about 6% right now.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/08/dow-futures-plunge-1-000-points-crude-prices-tumble-oil-price-war/4996351002/

Looks like we could be heading for a global stock market crash. But who knows?

Of course, we had already been heading that direction for the last few days...

Quote
...$9 trillion was wiped off global stocks in nine days...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/stock-dow-futures-coronavirus/index.html
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 03:59:50 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

oren

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #66 on: March 09, 2020, 04:43:18 AM »
WTI oil is at $27.95, down 32% from the previous session. I have been trading financial markets for almost two decades, and cannot recall such a drop.

wili

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #67 on: March 09, 2020, 06:18:06 AM »
oren, your recollection seems accurate:

Quote
Oil futures tumbled 31% in a matter of seconds overnight on Sunday, their sharpest decline since the Gulf War in 1991

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/oil-price-crash-market-drop-global-price-war-futures-coronavirus-2020-3
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

oren

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #68 on: March 09, 2020, 07:40:44 AM »
In the same vein, S&P 500 Futures have hit their limit down (set at +/-5% outside US trading hours) and are staying there. This last happened in 2008 IIRC.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #69 on: March 09, 2020, 09:32:33 AM »
Crude plummeted....
The fracking boom is losing billions as is.
With the oil price collapsing?
The   implosion of the fracking industry alone  could be enough to place  the USA into recession.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #70 on: March 09, 2020, 01:23:22 PM »
If this thing collapses the fracking industry, i would count this as a net-positive.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #71 on: March 09, 2020, 01:28:01 PM »
But with gasoline prices crashing will people drive more?
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oren

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #72 on: March 09, 2020, 01:37:39 PM »
Not if there are limitations on movement and if many choose / are forced to quarantine at home.
The real question is how long it will last, and thus will it have a lasting impact?

be cause

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #73 on: March 09, 2020, 02:02:12 PM »
yep BK .. there are many positives for the planet in an economic collapse . Fracking and tar sands are expensive to produce .. the oil that needs least investment and pollution wins out for now .
I heard Donald did a deal with China earlier this year .. unfortunately for the USA he sold dollars worth rather than barrels . If so China now gets twice the oil for their money . A fabulous deal .. the Best Deal Ever !   b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

wili

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #74 on: March 09, 2020, 02:22:29 PM »
Dow Futures down 1,255 as of 8:18 EST.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

GoodeWeather

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #75 on: March 09, 2020, 02:50:16 PM »
Dow Futures down 1,255 as of 8:18 EST.

Dow is in free fall this morning down over 1,800 points!!!!!!!
Over 7% down!!!

Edit:   TRADING HALTED IN THE FIRST 15 minuets!!!!

wili

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #76 on: March 09, 2020, 03:10:26 PM »
Yup, crazy sh!t goin' down:

Quote
It is the most crude price-bearish combination since the early 1930s. The price collapse has just begun

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/shockwave-of-oil-price-crash-slams-markets-sending-stocks-around-the-world-plummeting

Quote
Italy’s FTSE MIB lost more than a tenth of its value ...

https://www.ft.com/content/8273a32a-61e4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Quote
Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at US asset manager Pimco, said a recession in the US and the eurozone in the first half of the year was now “a distinct possibility” and that Japan was “very likely” already in one.

Nearly all the stock market gains since Trump became president have been wiped out...they were all an illusion
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

GoodeWeather

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #77 on: March 09, 2020, 03:18:43 PM »
Yup, crazy sh!t goin' down:

Quote
It is the most crude price-bearish combination since the early 1930s. The price collapse has just begun

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/shockwave-of-oil-price-crash-slams-markets-sending-stocks-around-the-world-plummeting

Quote
Italy’s FTSE MIB lost more than a tenth of its value ...

https://www.ft.com/content/8273a32a-61e4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Quote
Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at US asset manager Pimco, said a recession in the US and the eurozone in the first half of the year was now “a distinct possibility” and that Japan was “very likely” already in one.

Nearly all the stock market gains since Trump became president have been wiped out...they were all an illusion

Didn't take a genius to see how over inflated the market was.  Just wait until major supply chains get ruptured.  A bottleneck has already appeared and if things continue like this, we will most likely see the DJI fall below 20,000. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #78 on: March 09, 2020, 03:35:01 PM »
Markets around the world are nosediving on Monday owing to a combination of plummeting oil prices and a surge in global coronavirus cases.
Quote
A group of oil-producing nations known as OPEC failed to reach a deal with its allies over oil output cuts following a meeting in Vienna on Friday. This led OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia to slash its official selling prices for April and reportedly prepare for an increase in production.
The shocking move came after OPEC ally Russia rejected the 14-member organization’s recommended production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day from April until the end of the year in a bid to support energy prices, which along with global stock markets have been ravaged by falling demand amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The Kremlin’s decision not to help prop up energy prices not only shattered the coalition efforts to curb production, but will also likely impact U.S. shale oil producers.
“If you look at Russia, they do not consider indefinite production cuts to be a viable strategy for their oil industry, I think they need to see a structural shift in the supply side, that is the only way you move beyond this era of cuts, and U.S. shale, I would say, is firmly in the crosshairs,” Thom Payne, head of offshore, rigs and wells at Westwood Global Energy Group, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.
Payne added that Russia “smells blood” in the weak U.S. shale sector and would be looking to shave 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day off U.S. shale production, which has increased sharply in recent years.

By the market close in Asia Pacific, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes fell by more than 5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 4.23% and mainland Chinese stocks declined by more than 3%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 plunged 7.33%
European stocks also tanked on Monday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 tumbling 8.1% to enter bear market territory. Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 11.5% to lead losses in the region while Britain’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC 40 each shed more than 8%.

Stateside, the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 1,800 points at market open and trading was suspended for 15 minutes after the S&P 500 dropped 7%, triggering a “circuit breaker.”
Spooked investors have flocked to traditional safe haven assets such as bonds, sending the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury note to a staggering all-time low of below 0.34% for a brief period on Monday morning, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield tumbled below 0.74%. Yields made a slight recovery by mid-morning but were still hovering near their historic lows.

Recession not depression?
While comparisons are being drawn to the 2008 financial crisis, Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, highlighted that while 2008 was what economists term a “balance sheet” recession which impacted aggregate demand, the current economic shock resulting from the coronavirus affects both the supply and demand side of the economy.

“Factory shutdowns, travel bans, supply-chain disruptions and school closures represent a supply shock — the ability of the economy to produce goods and services is diminished,” Shearing said in a note Monday.
“But fewer trips to shops, restaurants and cinemas represent a demand shock — consumer spending falls. Large falls in the stock market also feed into weaker demand by reducing household wealth.”

Shearing suggested that the worst-case scenario at present is very different from 2008, when asset price collapses were magnified by high levels of leverage and vulnerabilities in the global financial system.
“Pockets of risk exist — particularly in the corporate sector — and some of these vulnerabilities in the energy sector may be exposed by the sharp drop in oil prices over the past day. But we don’t think these are large enough (yet) to trigger a global crisis,” he said.
“All of this means that the most likely worst-case scenario today is a sharp but probably short recession rather than an outright depression.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-heres-why-financial-markets-are-tanking.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #79 on: March 09, 2020, 03:58:32 PM »
"...recession rather than an outright depression"

Awwww, how very comforting! /sark

"When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession.
When you lose your job, that’s a depression!"
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

KiwiGriff

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #80 on: March 09, 2020, 05:39:37 PM »
FFS
The pundits dont get it .
The bite has only just started we are only at the beginning of the global pandemic.
What happens when large  parts of every country are in lock down ?
Gas price who cares?
No one will be going anywhere
Tourism is gonna die. hotels, tour company's, cruise lines, airlines, restaurants, concert venues all going bankrupt. That is about 5% of GDP for the OECD evaporating over night.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #81 on: March 09, 2020, 05:58:47 PM »
"...recession rather than an outright depression"

Awwww, how very comforting! /sark

"When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession.
When you lose your job, that’s a depression!"

Yes.  Most financial analysts, particularly at CNBC, have a great deal of difficulty envisioning a future that is significantly different than current conditions.  Or at least, they feel unable to voice it.  Something about needing to believe a thing if your job depends on it.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #82 on: March 09, 2020, 06:19:54 PM »
The markets are starting to worry about cash-flow of companies and the banks.

So many companies now don't just rely on "just-in-time" supply chains, but perhaps even worse on "just-in-time" cash-flow. Back in the day the rule-of-thumb was for a company to always have 30 days operating cash in the bank for hiccups - of their own money. Now most companies rely on bank finance even for daily operations - next month's or even next quarter's sales keep the bank at bay.

With very low bank interest rates for companies it works fine - until it doesn't. Pressure is on Governments to help plug the gaps with fiscal stimulus (late payment of taxes etc).



"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #83 on: March 09, 2020, 08:46:08 PM »
Stock market live updates: Dow down more than 1,700, banks punished, oil tanks 20%
Quote
3:15 pm: Gundlach says ‘things have to get worse’ in the credit market
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, often called the “Bond King,” told CNBC’s Scott Wapner in an email that the credit market is holding up so far during Monday’s turbulent trading, but that he expects it to get worse. “I am concerned. Things have to get worse – you don’t have a move like this end without disorder. It just never happens,” Gundlach said, according to Wapner. — Pound

3:04 pm: Here’s where we stand with just under an hour before the close
Stocks are slightly above their lows of the day as we begin the final hour of trading. The Dow is down more than 1900 points, or 7.4%, while the S&P 500 is down 7.2% and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 6.6%. The Dow is currently on track for its biggest percentage loss since 2008. If the index closes down by more than 7.87%, it’ll be the worst day since 1987. — Pound, Francolla

2:51 pm: Oil prices plummet more than 20% in worst day since 1991
Oil prices cratered on Monday after tensions rose between Saudi Arabia and Russia over the weekend, prompting fears of an oversupply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate tumbled 24.59%, or $10.15, to settle at $31.13 per barrel. It was WTI’s worst day since 1991, and second worst day on record. During the session the contract traded as low as $30.
On Friday, OPEC ally Russia rejected additional production cuts proposed by the 14-member cartel, which prompted Saudi Arabia to retaliate. On Saturday, the kingdom announced massive discounts to its official selling prices for April, and the nation is reportedly preparing to increase its production above the 10 million barrel per day mark, according to a Reuters report. The kingdom currently pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day. —Stevens

2:03 pm: Dow hits session low, down more than 2,000 points
Stocks accelerated loses in afternoon trading with the Dow Jones Industrial Average cratering more than 2,060 points. The S&P 500 lost 7.7% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6.95%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/stock-market-today-live.html
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #84 on: March 09, 2020, 09:01:25 PM »
Dow down 2015 .. worst day ever .. b.c.

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #85 on: March 09, 2020, 09:21:35 PM »
Orderly chaos? Bond market problems as Dow closes down over 2,000 points.

Bond market breakdown sees historic spread between buyers and sellers
Quote
Record-breaking yields in the Treasury market are part of action not seen in bonds for 40 years, according to JP Morgan's Bob Michele.

Liquidity issues in which buyers and sellers are having a hard time coming together on prices are just part of the problem, Michele, the firm's chief investment officer and head of global fixed income, said Monday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

"I've been doing this 40 years. I've never seen that before," Michele told CNBC's Steve Liesman, who inquired about half-point difference in what buyers were willing to pay and sellers were willing to sell for, referred to as the bid-ask spread.

In fact, Michele said that at one point he received a call from JP Morgan Asset Management's London office to say that there were no offers on the 30-year bond.
"I've never seen that before," he said. "These are uncharted times for sure."


The liquidity issues happened as the 10-year yield at one point fell below 0.4% and the 30-year bond dropped below 1%, both firsts in a bond market that has seen a stampede of buyers looking for safety amid the coronavirus scare and a price war in the oil market.

However, some high-profile market veterans said the liquidity issues are not unusual and not threatening to the proper functioning of markets. Both David Tepper of Appaloosa Management and Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital both told CNBC that the issues are likely temporary and that the moves in markets, though dramatic, have been orderly.

Michele said the Federal Reserve is going to need to provide more easing, and he expects an announcement could come as soon as today. The Fed last week instituted a 50 basis point emergency rate cut and on Monday announced it was increasing the amount available in its short-term funding, or repo, program for banks.
...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/bond-market-malfunctioning-part-of-uncharted-times-for-sure.html
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El Cid

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #86 on: March 10, 2020, 08:19:45 AM »
Dow down 2015 .. worst day ever .. b.c.

Pointwise yes, percentagewise not at all. I remember 1987 October: 22% in a single day. This is nothing :)

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #87 on: March 10, 2020, 09:20:05 AM »
I warned @ 1987 coming too .. tried to get my banking uncle to sell his shares .. he too new better ..
of course there was no epidemic just beginning then , or a just in time supply line , or Donald Ducking reality in the Whitehouse .  ,  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #88 on: March 10, 2020, 10:22:21 AM »
Well Russia as a defender of free market capitalism, who'd a thunk it? Their costs are about $7pb but need a price around $20 for long term sustainability, S.A. costs are around $3pb but need about $85pb for their quota to sustain their luxury socialist welfare state, they simply don't have the capacity to cover these costs at lower prices, frackers need $50 to break even $60pb to meet debt obligations.  At $20pb demand for dollars would crash, meanwhile reserves held in treasuries would have to be liquidated, what could go wrong?

El Cid

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #89 on: March 10, 2020, 09:29:00 PM »
Well Russia as a defender of free market capitalism, who'd a thunk it?

Great joke if I might say so. Russia and free markets should not really be in the same sentence. Ever. (I studied in Moscow, I have first hand experience)

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #90 on: March 11, 2020, 11:29:52 AM »
Saudi-Arabia starts to ramp up oil production from today, an extra 1 million barrels.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #91 on: March 11, 2020, 02:51:22 PM »
The price Suadi Arabia needs depends on the volume. Since their costs are about $2.80 a barrel. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-crash-saudi-arabia-s-price-war-worked-once-but-may-backfire
if they increase volume 20% the price they need drops 20% plus costs. It doesn't really solve the problem for them but it does help. I am sure they will cut at least some spending as well.  They were also looking to increase their wealth fund about 60 billion this year. I am not certain about that number but nor do I know how much they already have set aside. Some crude math suggests eliminating this would drop the price they need about $13.69 a barrel. All in they can survive on far less than $80 a barrel.


Shut in prices for north dakota are $15.00 a barrel.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-shale-prices-kemp/breakeven-and-shut-in-prices-for-oil-wells-kemp-idUSKBN0KN07C20150114
Given this cost completed wells in US will get pumped dry. There are also many drilled but not compleated wells that can pumped for a time.  Unfortunately all these wells will continue to produce for some time to come. The drillers may go bankrupt but the creditors will pump the oil anyway. Another complicating factor is prices are often locked in the futures market before production begins anyway.


The increase in EV sales probably won't be that noticable in oil markets this year but I hope it will start to effect demand soon.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #92 on: March 11, 2020, 03:00:09 PM »
Dow -778 and dropping and it’s only been half an hour.
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #93 on: March 11, 2020, 04:41:04 PM »
Britain unveils $39 billion spending package as it tries to tackle coronavirus slowdown
Quote
The U.K. government will spend billions of pounds in an effort to limit the impact of the coronavirus on the U.K. economy, the country's finance chief said Wednesday.

The virus outbreak, which emerged in China in late 2019, has been putting pressure on all major economies by significantly reducing supply chains, hitting demand for travel, as well as fueling panic buying and stockpiling. Various economists and organizations, such as the OECD, have trimmed their global growth forecasts as a result.

Rishi Sunak, appointed finance chief last month, told the U.K. Parliament that there would be £7 billion ($9 billion) available to support the labor market and an additional £5 billion to help the health-care system.

Sunak also announced a further fiscal loosening of £18 billion to support the U.K. economy, bringing the total fiscal stimulus to £30 billion. The U.K. public body, the Office for Budget Responsibility, called it the largest budget giveaway since 1992. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/uk-government-announces-12-billion-pounds-to-tackle-coronavirus-in-2020-budget.html
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #94 on: March 11, 2020, 04:49:12 PM »
60% to 70% of the German population will be infected by the coronavirus, Merkel says
Quote
...  Merkel said Berlin would spend whatever was necessary to contain the virus in Germany, but declined to commit to providing direct material aid to virus-stricken Italy.

Confirmed cases in Italy have surpassed 10,000 with deaths spiking to 631, and Merkel told reporters that her government would play its part in combating the fallout from the epidemic, insisting a proposed European Union package of fiscal measures would not fail because of Germany.

More than 121,000 cases and 4,368 deaths have now been confirmed around the world.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/angela-merkel-most-people-will-get-the-coronavirus.html
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #95 on: March 11, 2020, 05:09:43 PM »
The Dow Is Tumbling Again.   Goldman Sachs: 'Bull Market Will Soon End.
Mar 11, 2020 11:15AM EDT
Quote
The [U.S.] markets want fiscal stimulus—and aren’t getting it. Goldman Sachs slashed its earnings estimate for the companies in the S&P 500 and predicts that the bull market is ending.

Another day, another 1000 point drop for the Dow Jones Industrial Average after U.S. Senator for Iowa Chuck Grassley said that the U.S. should consider reducing the payroll tax but there’s no need for action as of yet.

The stock market is unthrilled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has tumbled 1,008.19 points, or 4%, to 24,009.97, while the S&P 500 has dropped 3.7% to 2777.79, and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 3.3% to 8,072.83. The 10-year Treasury has slipped .05 percentage point to 0.71
...
The problem for U.S. stocks, however, is one of earnings, according to Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. After recently cutting his earnings forecast for the S&P 500 to $165 a share, he slashed it once again to $157, a drop of 5% from last year. That leads him to one obvious conclusion: “We believe the S&P 500 bull market will soon end,” he writes. ...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-dow-is-tumbling-again.-bull-market-will-soon-end.-2020-03-11
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #96 on: March 11, 2020, 05:40:36 PM »
W.H.O declares pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk/h_0cc7fc92661bca767fbee35c5e5fedd1

I suspect the market to have a sell off in the second half of today.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #97 on: March 11, 2020, 09:38:52 PM »
^^
Finally!!
Terry

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #98 on: March 11, 2020, 10:20:29 PM »
Dow down 1464/5.86%
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #99 on: March 11, 2020, 10:54:59 PM »
looks like the bear is now mauling the bullshitter extraordinaire in the Oval office . CGTN is asking how we are still so ill-informed in the west considering what happened in China . A reasonable question .
  Today showed Donald more concerned with money than people . Not a great impression . Future presidents should have light pockets when entering and leaving office . Personal wealth should not influence  life and death decisions . After all , T'rump cannot afford to be the president that caused his personal wealth to collapse .. however the health support system as such is expendable , as is up to 20% of the population .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...