Asia's Economic Growth 'To Drop To Zero for First Time In 60 Years'https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/trump-cuts-funding-coronavirus-pandemic-live-updates-200414231400449.htmlIMF says the coronavirus pandemic is likely to bring Asia's economic growth to a a standstill for the first time in 60 years.
"These are highly uncertain and challenging times for the global economy. The Asia-Pacific region is no exception. The impact of the coronavirus on the region will be severe, across the board, and unprecedented," says Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.
The zero growth projection for Asia is worse than the 4.7 percent average growth rates recorded in the region during the global financial crisis of 2008.
------------------------------------
IMF Says 'Worst Recession Since Great Depression' is Likelyhttps://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/imf-worst-recession-great-depression-200414125253286.htmlThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economy is expected to shrink by three percent this year - the biggest contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. G20 nations agreed to suspend debt payments owed to them by the world's poorest countries.
... "It is very likely that this year, the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the financial crisis a decade ago," IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the foreword for the fund's World Economic Outlook.
Titled 'The Great Lockdown', the IMF's latest report card on the global economy described the coronavirus pandemic as a crisis "like no other" and predicted that world economic output will shrink by three percent this year, before experiencing a partial rebound next year.
https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/... "There is extreme uncertainty around the global growth forecast. The economic fallout depends on factors that interact in ways that are hard to predict," the Fund warned, citing the pathway of the pandemic, the efficacy of containment measures, the intensity of supply chain disruptions, credit market freezes, commodity price impacts and changes in consumer behaviour.
Under the Fund's best-case scenario, the world is likely to lose a cumulative $9 trillion in output over two years - greater than the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of Germany and Japan, said Gopinath.
The IMF's forecasts assume that outbreaks of the novel coronavirus will peak in most countries during the second quarter and fade in the second half of the year, with business closures and other containment measures gradually unwound.
A longer pandemic that lasts through the third quarter could cause a further three percent contraction in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021, due to the "scarring" effects of bankruptcies and prolonged unemployment. A second outbreak in 2021 that forces more shutdowns could cause a reduction of five to eight percentage points in the global GDP baseline forecast for next year, keeping the world in recession for a second straight year.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last week that some $8 trillion in fiscal stimulus being poured in by governments to stave off collapse was not likely to be enough.
The oil price collapse has added insult to the demand injury inflicted by coronavirus containment measures.
... The global economy contracted 0.7 percent at the height of the Great Recession in 2009 - previously the worst downturn since the 1930s - according to IMF data.
Advanced economies now suffering the worst outbreaks of the virus will bear the brunt of the plunge in activity. The US economy will contract 5.9 percent in 2020, with a rebound to 4.7 percent growth in 2021 under the Fund's best-case scenario.
Eurozone economies will contract by 7.5 percent in 2020, with hard-hit Italy seeing its GDP fall 9.1 percent and contractions of 8.0 percent in Spain, 7.0 percent in Germany and 7.2 percent in France, the Fund said. It predicted euro-area economies as a whole would match US growth of 4.7 percent in 2021.
It said some countries may need to turn to temporary limits on capital outflows.
