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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #400 on: April 13, 2020, 03:31:14 PM »
Food Shortages Ahead? ...

South Dakota: Smithfield pork plant in Sioux Falls, SD, announced Sunday it was closing until further notice. As of Saturday, when there were 430 active coronavirus cases in the state, Smithfield employees accounted for 240 of those. The plant, which employs 3,700, produces 4% to 5% of the country's pork. South Dakota's governor recommended a shutdown of at least two weeks, and employees will be paid for the next two weeks. (Its current inventory will be processed Tuesday with some employees on site.)

Colorado: There are as many as 50 cases at a Colorado JBS USA beef facility; AgWeb reports the Greeley plant will close through Tuesday so it can be cleaned and sanitized

https://www.agweb.com/article/covid-19-jbs-closes-greeley-beef-plant-cleaning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/worsening-outbreak-at-colorado-meat-plant-impacts-as-many-as-300

Pennsylvania: A Cargill meat packaging facility in Pennsylvania where at least 164 cases have been reported so far closed Tuesday with no indication of when it might reopen, the Citizens' Voice reports. "The number that is even scarier is the many more who are sick and waiting for their test results," says the union president, per the Star Tribune. He estimated as many as 200 others were out sick when the plant closed. Other plants in Pennsylvania have also gone idle, including a JBS USA beef plant, per NPR.

https://www.citizensvoice.com/news/cargill-temporarily-closes-humboldt-plant-1.2616027

https://www.startribune.com/sioux-falls-pork-plant-a-crucial-destination-for-minnesota-hogs-closes-over-covid-19/569508672/?refresh=true

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/07/828873225/meat-processing-plants-suspend-operations-after-workers-fall-ill

Iowa: After more than two dozen confirmed cases among employees of a Tyson Foods pork processing plant in Columbus Junction, Iowa, the facility suspended operations last week without saying when they might resume, the Des Moines Register reports. A National Beef Packing plant in the state also suspended slaughter operations so it could move up a cleaning that was originally scheduled for later this month, Reuters reports.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2020/04/06/covid-19-outbreak-halts-production-east-iowa-pork-processing-plant/2955922001/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meat/two-iowa-meat-plants-close-as-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads-idUSKBN21O2J5

Deaths: Two of the Colorado employees have died, as well as one employee at another JBS facility and two workers from a Georgia Tyson Foods plant. "You cannot make sacrifices like this with people’s lives," a Colorado union president says. "People can live without beef."

... "It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running. These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain," Smithfield CEO, Kenneth Sullivan said, per CNN. "The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #401 on: April 13, 2020, 08:18:48 PM »
America should be ready for 18 months of shutdowns in ‘long, hard road’ ahead, warns the Fed’s Neel Kashkari
Quote
Kashkari, while acknowledging the downside of what a prolonged shutdown could mean for the economy, said the U.S., “barring some health-care miracle,” is looking at an 18-month strategy of rolling shutdowns based on what has happened in other countries.

“We could have these waves of flare-ups, controls, flare-ups and controls, until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine,” he said. “We need to find ways of getting the people who are healthy, who are at lower risk, back to work and then providing the assistance to those who are most at risk, who are going to need to be quarantined or isolated for the foreseeable future.”

Looking ahead, Kashkari doesn’t envision a quick rebound for the U.S. economy, which has already suffered more than 16 million job losses in the past three weeks. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/america-should-be-ready-for-18-months-of-shutdowns-in-long-hard-road-ahead-warns-the-feds-neel-kashkari-2020-04-12

——
Amazon to hire 75,000 more employees
Quote
Amazon said it was increasing capacity for grocery delivery from Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods Market "as quickly as possible," with focus on "high-priority" items such as household staples and medical supplies.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-hire-75000-more-employees-boost-pay-increase-investment-to-more-than-500-million-2020-04-13

Amazon to begin allowing third-party sellers to resume shipping nonessential items
April 13, 2020
Quote
Amazon.com Inc. will begin allowing third-party sellers on its platform to ship “nonessential” items to the e-commerce giant this week, a signal that the company is ramping up to meet broader consumer needs, according to people familiar with the matter.

Last month, Amazon made a decision to prioritize so-called essential items such as cleaning products, health-care items and shelf-stable food at its warehouses to meet customer demand. Amazon stopped accepting shipments of items from sellers that didn’t correspond to the shopping needs created by the virus. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-begin-allowing-third-party-sellers-to-resume-shipping-nonessential-items-2020-04-13

—-
Why Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line [stock prices] All Plunged Double Digits on Monday
We won't see cruises start for a while.
Quote
The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued an order that ceases the operations of cruise ships in waters that the U.S. has jurisdiction over until some pretty hefty conditions are met. The order not to sail will continue until one of three conditions are met, as outlined in this excerpt:

This Order shall continue in operation until the earliest of three situations. First, the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services' declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency. Second, the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations. Or third, 100 days from the date of publication in the Federal Register.

Given the spread of COVID-19 and the long duration of cases in countries affected earlier than the U.S., it doesn't seem likely the public health emergency will end soon. So it might be 100 days before cruise ships can board passengers. But even that seems like a moving target given the quickly changing landscape.

I think investors are coming to grips with the fact that it's going to be many months before cruise liners get back to operation. And even when they do, it's not clear that demand will return simultaneously, given the CDC's recommendation not to go on cruises. …
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/13/why-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #402 on: April 14, 2020, 05:07:37 PM »
"Our results were impacted by a $3.1 billion reserve build, which reflected the expected impact these unprecedented times could have on our customers."

Wells Fargo reports first-quarter Earnings Per Share of just 1 cent as it sets aside more money for credit losses
Quote
... The market drop, along with dimming economic prospects, sparked a flurry of stimulus measures from the government. One of those measures is the Paycheck Protection Program, which allocates nearly $350 billion in forgivable loans to small businesses.

However, Wells capped its participation in the program to $10 billion in loans, citing regulatory constraints.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/wells-fargo-reports-first-quarter-eps-of-just-1-cent-as-it-sets-aside-more-money-for-credit-losses.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #403 on: April 14, 2020, 05:24:21 PM »
Airlines Begin Pulling Passenger Seats To Make Room For Cargo
Quote
With a global shortage of air cargo space and extraordinary demand to move emergency medical supplies, some overseas passenger airlines are taking out the seats on aircraft to make more room for freight.

And U.S. airlines are asking the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for permission to fly cargo in the main deck where passengers normally sit, including the option of removing seats, an industry source familiar with the regulatory situation said.

The new operational configurations require certification by civil aviation authorities who examine structural loads and what mechanisms are employed to secure the cargo.

The decision to turn the airplanes into double-deck freighters underscores the global shortage of air cargo space and the pressure on airlines to find revenue anywhere possible after the coronavirus halted nearly all travel and forced carriers to ground most of their fleets. A month ago, many passenger airlines began offering their aircraft to cargo customers on a charter basis. Then some international carriers began flying cargo-only routes on regular schedules, while others utilized cabin space by putting light boxes in the seats.

The fact that airlines are taking the next step and spending money to remove seats also reflects sky-high airfreight rates that airlines can command and the fact that passenger traffic won't return to precoronavirus levels anytime soon.

Early this month, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said it would speed up applications for supplemental certificates to temporarily modify passenger cabins with cargo seat bags, which typically are installed onto passenger seats in the evening to carry cargo overnight and are then removed in the morning to allow the cabin to be used for passengers again.…
https://m.benzinga.com/article/15797218
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TerryM

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #404 on: April 14, 2020, 06:15:07 PM »
^^
Masks? - We don' need no Steenking Masks!!


Terry - While contemplating deliveries left on the stoop.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #405 on: April 14, 2020, 08:55:36 PM »
Fauci says U.S. is ‘not there yet’ on key steps to reopen economy
Fauci says: 
• The U.S. does not yet have the critical testing and tracing procedures needed to begin reopening the nation’s economy, adding a dose of caution to increasingly optimistic projections from the White House.
• “We have to have something in place that is efficient and that we can rely on, and we’re not there yet.”
• May 1 target is “a bit overly optimistic” for many areas of the country.
• Antibody tests are crucial in determining when and how people can go back to work.  The problem: Most of the tests have not yet been proven to work well,
• White House daily briefings are “really draining”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-us-is-not-there-yet-on-key-steps-to-reopen-economy-2020-04-14
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #406 on: April 14, 2020, 09:31:11 PM »
^^
Masks? - We don' need no Steenking Masks!!

Terry - While contemplating deliveries left on the stoop.

Photo caption:
Quote
(Cargo netting system for passenger cabin. (Image: Air Canada)

If only your packages were as old as this photo likely is.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #407 on: April 14, 2020, 09:52:21 PM »
IMF Sees “Great Lockdown” Recession as Worst Since Depression
April 14, 2020
Quote
The International Monetary Fund predicted the “Great Lockdown” recession would be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the coronavirus lingers or returns.

 In its first World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.

That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.

While the fund anticipated growth of 5.8% next year, which would be the strongest in records dating back to 1980, it cautioned risks are tilted to the downside. Much depends on the longevity of the pandemic, its effect on activity and related stresses in financial and commodity markets, it said.


Even if the IMF’s forecast proves accurate, it said output in both advanced and emerging markets would undershoot their pre-virus trends through 2021, seemingly dashing any lingering hopes of a V-shaped economic rebound from the health emergency. The cumulative loss in global GDP this year and next could be about $9 trillion -- bigger than the economies of Japan and Germany combined, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said.
...
“Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF said. “Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”

The grim projections are a stark reversal from the IMF’s outlook less than two months ago. …


The IMF and World Bank are holding their spring meetings via video conference for the first time ever this week. Their normal in-person meetings typically draw thousands of delegates, observers and journalists from 189 member countries. The program has been pared down to mostly media briefings and private meetings, skipping the typical seminars and public discussions. ...
https://apple.news/AuYnkPYsnRpWyWe1uQhortQ

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/imf-says-great-lockdown-recession-likely-worst-since-depression
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #408 on: April 15, 2020, 05:16:47 PM »
U.S.
The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: 'The economy is clearly in ruins here'
Quote
Consumer and manufacturing reports for March showed the hit to the economy from the coronavirus was even swifter and deeper in the early weeks of the shutdown than expected.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever in government data, and New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all time low, declining a shocking 78.2%.

The two economic reports showed the double whammy of state shutdowns in mid-March on two pillars of the economy — the consumer and business. Both reports were even more dire than expected, and foreshadow even worse declines in April's activity, with state shutdowns affecting areas responsible for more than 90% of the economy.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, a record drop, with the only sign of activity at grocery and beverage stores, which saw sales grow by 25.6%. Economists expected an 8% decline in monthly sales. The consumer accounts for 70% of the economy.

"The economy is clearly in ruins here," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "Nobody is buying cars, down 25.6%, nobody is buying furniture, down 26.8%, and eating and drinking places were down 26.5%."

The economic decline, which started in the first quarter is expected to reach its trough in the second quarter. Economists expect an unprecedented drop of more than 30% in GDP for the second quarter. JPMorgan economists expected a 40% decline in the second quarter, on top of a 10% drop in the first quarter.

But now already negative first quarter GDP forecasts may also worsen, showing the economy began contracting at a rapid pace when businesses closed down, states ordered residents to stay home and President Donald Trump told Americans to stay out of restaurants and practice safe distancing.

March retail sales also showed barely a blip in online purchases, only up 3.1%, though consumers are shopping from home. The Commerce Department acknowledged it had difficulty collecting data as many businesses have shut down. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/the-economic-data-is-even-worse-than-wall-street-feared-the-economy-is-clearly-in-ruins-here.html
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #409 on: April 15, 2020, 05:43:44 PM »
This should come as no surprise to anyone.  The country is closed down.  Making absurd claims that the economy is in ruins based on data during the lockdown is short-sighted at best.  The real test is what happens after the country opens back up. 

TerryM

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #410 on: April 15, 2020, 06:42:03 PM »
^^
I can't imagine that online purchases are up only 3.1%, but be that as it may. I do feel that the system that had supported the world's economic churning has not only proven to be inadequate, its been crashed to the ground like Humpty Dumpty. Like the Hapless Humpty, all the King's Horses & all the King's Men are having one hell of a time trying to unscramble the economic nest egg we all relied on.


America can't count on simply printing money and expecting oil transactions to gobble up the (hyper)inflationary consequences. Oil (energy) sales are drifting away from their pivotal position as the commodity that drives GDP. At $20/bbl lots of energy can move about while relatively few dollars change hands.
With the oil glut few need fists full of greenbacks for purchasing KSA's, or America's fracked up offerings. For a very few Rubles their Quest for Fire may succeed without American vigorish greasing the rails.


If people venture outside they risk death. If people attempt hibernation they'll starve in their dens as electricity, gas, and finally water & food deliveries succumb to the financial realities that demand payment for services and goods.


Can home delivered soup kitchens feed the world? Possibly, it was done successfully in Cuba and averted starvation (and social unrest).


Tighten your seatbelts
The landing won't be smooth
Terry

harpy

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #411 on: April 15, 2020, 06:48:37 PM »
Food Shortages Ahead? ...

South Dakota: Smithfield pork plant in Sioux Falls, SD, announced Sunday it was closing until further notice. As of Saturday, when there were 430 active coronavirus cases in the state, Smithfield employees accounted for 240 of those. The plant, which employs 3,700, produces 4% to 5% of the country's pork. South Dakota's governor recommended a shutdown of at least two weeks, and employees will be paid for the next two weeks. (Its current inventory will be processed Tuesday with some employees on site.)

Colorado: There are as many as 50 cases at a Colorado JBS USA beef facility; AgWeb reports the Greeley plant will close through Tuesday so it can be cleaned and sanitized

https://www.agweb.com/article/covid-19-jbs-closes-greeley-beef-plant-cleaning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/worsening-outbreak-at-colorado-meat-plant-impacts-as-many-as-300

Pennsylvania: A Cargill meat packaging facility in Pennsylvania where at least 164 cases have been reported so far closed Tuesday with no indication of when it might reopen, the Citizens' Voice reports. "The number that is even scarier is the many more who are sick and waiting for their test results," says the union president, per the Star Tribune. He estimated as many as 200 others were out sick when the plant closed. Other plants in Pennsylvania have also gone idle, including a JBS USA beef plant, per NPR.

https://www.citizensvoice.com/news/cargill-temporarily-closes-humboldt-plant-1.2616027

https://www.startribune.com/sioux-falls-pork-plant-a-crucial-destination-for-minnesota-hogs-closes-over-covid-19/569508672/?refresh=true

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/07/828873225/meat-processing-plants-suspend-operations-after-workers-fall-ill

Iowa: After more than two dozen confirmed cases among employees of a Tyson Foods pork processing plant in Columbus Junction, Iowa, the facility suspended operations last week without saying when they might resume, the Des Moines Register reports. A National Beef Packing plant in the state also suspended slaughter operations so it could move up a cleaning that was originally scheduled for later this month, Reuters reports.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2020/04/06/covid-19-outbreak-halts-production-east-iowa-pork-processing-plant/2955922001/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meat/two-iowa-meat-plants-close-as-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads-idUSKBN21O2J5

Deaths: Two of the Colorado employees have died, as well as one employee at another JBS facility and two workers from a Georgia Tyson Foods plant. "You cannot make sacrifices like this with people’s lives," a Colorado union president says. "People can live without beef."

... "It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running. These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain," Smithfield CEO, Kenneth Sullivan said, per CNN. "The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply."

You know what I'm going to do?  Re-stock all my meat in my freezer today.

I have a freezer full of quality meats, but I did eat a couple of packages.

Time to stock up and panic buy meat again.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #412 on: April 15, 2020, 06:51:34 PM »
"It's the first time in the history of the IMF that epidemiologists are as important as macro economists for our projections.  We are really hoping our scientists will not disappoint us."

Half of the world has asked the IMF for a bailout, chief says
Quote
The global economic downturn has been so severe that already half of the world has asked the International Monetary Fund for a bailout, the organization's chief said Wednesday.

"This is an emergency like no other. It is not because of bad governors or mistakes," Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC's Sara Eisen on CNBC's "Squawk Alley." "For that reason, we are providing funding very quickly."

"We are asking for one thing only: Please pay your doctors and nurses, make sure that your health [care] systems are functioning, and that vulnerable people and first responders are protected," Georgieva said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/half-of-the-world-has-asked-the-imf-for-a-bailout-chief-says.html
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #413 on: April 15, 2020, 08:08:13 PM »
^^
I can't imagine that online purchases are up only 3.1%, but be that as it may. I do feel that the system that had supported the world's economic churning has not only proven to be inadequate, its been crashed to the ground like Humpty Dumpty. Like the Hapless Humpty, all the King's Horses & all the King's Men are having one hell of a time trying to unscramble the economic nest egg we all relied on.


America can't count on simply printing money and expecting oil transactions to gobble up the (hyper)inflationary consequences. Oil (energy) sales are drifting away from their pivotal position as the commodity that drives GDP. At $20/bbl lots of energy can move about while relatively few dollars change hands.
With the oil glut few need fists full of greenbacks for purchasing KSA's, or America's fracked up offerings. For a very few Rubles their Quest for Fire may succeed without American vigorish greasing the rails.


If people venture outside they risk death. If people attempt hibernation they'll starve in their dens as electricity, gas, and finally water & food deliveries succumb to the financial realities that demand payment for services and goods.


Can home delivered soup kitchens feed the world? Possibly, it was done successfully in Cuba and averted starvation (and social unrest).


Tighten your seatbelts
The landing won't be smooth
Terry

The 3.1% is March sales only.  Many places did not lockdown, until the end of the month.  April will likely be much higher.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #414 on: April 16, 2020, 02:35:41 AM »
This should come as no surprise to anyone.  The country is closed down.  Making absurd claims that the economy is in ruins based on data during the lockdown is short-sighted at best.  The real test is what happens after the country opens back up.

Well, yes.  But this is pretty clearly going to be a least a couple of months.  During this time, many people will descend into debt and poverty as they can't earn an income, but still need to pay rent, utilities, and food costs.  When the economy opens up, they won't exactly be ready to spend with abandon.  If consumption is deeply muted, then production has to be deeply muted, so employment will be deeply muted.....resulting in deeply muted consumption.

Though I am optimistic about an effective treatment being rolled out fairly soon, I'm not so optimistic about people's jobs, standard of living, and security of housing and food being restored soon.

Another New Deal would be highly appropriate.  And it really should be green.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #415 on: April 16, 2020, 02:46:59 AM »
I can't imagine that online purchases are up only 3.1%, but be that as it may....

At first blush, that surprised me, too.  But I'd wager that while the *total* online purchases are only modestly up, some segments are drastically down and some strongly up.

Any rational person of means is going to have non-perishable foods delivered via online purchases.  But formerly commonplace online purchases have no rational use.  Who is going to buy fashions or cosmetics, when there is no place to show them off?  Event ticket sales for shows, concerts, and sporting events are down to virtually zero.  Travel and lodging were typically online bookings.

The bigger question to me, then, is how the heck can the food industry shift on a dime to move to UPS/FedEx delivery of the nation's nutritional needs?

I think the preppers and sudden hoarders have not been acting irrationally.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #416 on: April 16, 2020, 04:21:14 AM »
Asia's Economic Growth 'To Drop To Zero for First Time In 60 Years'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/trump-cuts-funding-coronavirus-pandemic-live-updates-200414231400449.html

IMF says the coronavirus pandemic is likely to bring Asia's economic growth to a a standstill for the first time in 60 years.

"These are highly uncertain and challenging times for the global economy. The Asia-Pacific region is no exception. The impact of the coronavirus on the region will be severe, across the board, and unprecedented," says Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.



The zero growth projection for Asia is worse than the 4.7 percent average growth rates recorded in the region during the global financial crisis of 2008.

------------------------------------

IMF Says 'Worst Recession Since Great Depression' is Likely
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/imf-worst-recession-great-depression-200414125253286.html

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economy is expected to shrink by three percent this year - the biggest contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. G20 nations agreed to suspend debt payments owed to them by the world's poorest countries.

... "It is very likely that this year, the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the financial crisis a decade ago," IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the foreword for the fund's World Economic Outlook.

Titled 'The Great Lockdown', the IMF's latest report card on the global economy described the coronavirus pandemic as a crisis "like no other" and predicted that world economic output will shrink by three percent this year, before experiencing a partial rebound next year.

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/

... "There is extreme uncertainty around the global growth forecast. The economic fallout depends on factors that interact in ways that are hard to predict," the Fund warned, citing the pathway of the pandemic, the efficacy of containment measures, the intensity of supply chain disruptions, credit market freezes, commodity price impacts and changes in consumer behaviour.

Under the Fund's best-case scenario, the world is likely to lose a cumulative $9 trillion in output over two years - greater than the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of Germany and Japan, said Gopinath.

The IMF's forecasts assume that outbreaks of the novel coronavirus will peak in most countries during the second quarter and fade in the second half of the year, with business closures and other containment measures gradually unwound.

A longer pandemic that lasts through the third quarter could cause a further three percent contraction in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021, due to the "scarring" effects of bankruptcies and prolonged unemployment. A second outbreak in 2021 that forces more shutdowns could cause a reduction of five to eight percentage points in the global GDP baseline forecast for next year, keeping the world in recession for a second straight year.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last week that some $8 trillion in fiscal stimulus being poured in by governments to stave off collapse was not likely to be enough.

The oil price collapse has added insult to the demand injury inflicted by coronavirus containment measures.

... The global economy contracted 0.7 percent at the height of the Great Recession in 2009 - previously the worst downturn since the 1930s - according to IMF data.

Advanced economies now suffering the worst outbreaks of the virus will bear the brunt of the plunge in activity. The US economy will contract 5.9 percent in 2020, with a rebound to 4.7 percent growth in 2021 under the Fund's best-case scenario.

Eurozone economies will contract by 7.5 percent in 2020, with hard-hit Italy seeing its GDP fall 9.1 percent and contractions of 8.0 percent in Spain, 7.0 percent in Germany and 7.2 percent in France, the Fund said. It predicted euro-area economies as a whole would match US growth of 4.7 percent in 2021.

It said some countries may need to turn to temporary limits on capital outflows.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #417 on: April 16, 2020, 11:00:22 AM »
The World Economy Is in a Free Fall, Says Felix Zulauf
https://www.financialsense.com/blog/19569/world-economy-free-fall-says-felix-zulauf
Quote
I think this is a decline that has triggered off a lot of problems. We entered this decline with the biggest debt the world has ever seen. Total debt out there in the world relative to GDP is more than double what it was at the last business cycle peak in 2007. And then you go down and your cash flow dries up, and your revenues dry up—that creates all sorts of financial problems. When you have a lot of debt, that means the default risk is going up very high. The central banks are trying to backstop that, but they cannot backstop everything.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #418 on: April 16, 2020, 11:05:31 AM »
Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/31/economies-wont-be-able-to-recover-after-shutdowns/
Quote
A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.

Quote
My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #419 on: April 16, 2020, 03:39:04 PM »
Jobless Claims Total 5.245 Million as 22 Million Positions Have Been Lost In a Month Due to Coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/16/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

Weekly jobless claims totaled 5.245 million, the Labor Department reported.

That was a drop of 1.37 million from a week ago but was above estimates for 5 million.

That brings the crisis total to just over 22 million, reflecting a 13.5% drop in household employment, nearly wiping out all the job gains since the Great Recession.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #420 on: April 16, 2020, 03:55:30 PM »
The World Economy Is in a Free Fall, Says Felix Zulauf
https://www.financialsense.com/blog/19569/world-economy-free-fall-says-felix-zulauf
Quote
I think this is a decline that has triggered off a lot of problems. We entered this decline with the biggest debt the world has ever seen. Total debt out there in the world relative to GDP is more than double what it was at the last business cycle peak in 2007. And then you go down and your cash flow dries up, and your revenues dry up—that creates all sorts of financial problems. When you have a lot of debt, that means the default risk is going up very high. The central banks are trying to backstop that, but they cannot backstop everything.

Felix also predicted recessions in 2012, 2015, and 2018.  Eventually, he was bound to be right.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #421 on: April 16, 2020, 06:34:47 PM »
It took only four weeks for the U.S. economy to wipe out nearly all the job gains in the last 11 years
Quote
“While today’s jobless numbers are down on last week, they still mean that all the job gains since the financial crisis have been erased,” wrote Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “What’s more, with many workers, including those in the gig economy, not included in these numbers, labor market pains may be even worse than these numbers suggest.”

“Concerns for the second half of the year may be underestimated,” she added. “Although governments are looking to lift lockdowns, the re-opening of economies will be only gradual, compounding financial strains for businesses and households, suppressing demand and suggesting a slower economic recovery.” ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/us-only-417000-jobless-claims-away-from-losing-gains-since-2009.html

Edit, more:
White House says new small-business loan program is out of money
Quote
A new lending program for small businesses maxed out Thursday morning and stopped accepting claims, but a bitterly divided Congress looked unlikely to address that growing problem as the nation plunged into unemployment levels not seen since the Great Depression.

The Small Business Administration said on its website that the agency “is unable to accept new applications … based on available appropriations funding.”

Republicans and Democrats say more action is needed to build on the massive $2 trillion economic rescue law passed just three weeks ago, but they cannot agree on what to do. The economy continues to weaken but lawmakers are scattered all over the country advancing conflicting proposals and bickering. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/04/16/congress-coronavirus-small-business-trump/
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 07:03:13 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #422 on: April 16, 2020, 11:00:43 PM »
The Trumpster will have something to say about the American economy at 6:00 PM EDT tonight.


The Canadian Loonie is hovering around 1.40 against the American $, which suits me nicely. With wild spending by both federal governments I expect inflation on both sides of the border.


Inflation is good for those with plenty of stuff, but disastrous for those with savings.


Interesting Times
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #423 on: April 17, 2020, 02:13:45 AM »
Worst Recession in 150 Years
https://dailyreckoning.com/worst-recession-in-150-years/
Quote
So when Ken Rogoff talks (or writes), I listen. In his latest article, Rogoff offers a dire forecast for the recovery from the New Depression resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

He writes, “The short-term collapse… now underway already seems likely to rival or exceed that of any recession in the last 150 years.”

SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #424 on: April 17, 2020, 02:16:29 AM »
Will it be an Inflationary or Deflationary Depression?
https://internationalman.com/articles/will-it-be-an-inflationary-or-deflationary-depression/
Quote
In any event, the moment of truth is approaching, and there likely will be a titanic struggle between the forces of inflation and the forces of deflation. Each will probably win, but in different areas of the economy.

As a result, we’re likely to see all kinds of prices going up and down, like an elevator with a lunatic at the controls. It will not be a mellow experience.

Editor’s Note: The biggest financial bubble in human history has popped… and the coming financial volatility will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

It will be an increasingly dangerous time for retirees, savers, and investors.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #425 on: April 17, 2020, 02:22:00 AM »
A Pandemic Iceberg Hits the ‘Unsinkable’ U.S. Economy– A Map Ahead
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-pandemic-iceberg-hits-the-unsinkable-u-s-economy-a-map-ahead/
Quote
When will people return to work on a large scale? Most people will be reluctant to return to stores or work until they are vaccinated or otherwise assured that others are not contagious. When can we expect all workers to return to work?  Health authorities are planning to clear workers in essential industries already traveling to the office or plant. Next, other workers will need to be cleared for work by taking an antibody test to show if they have had the virus and have recovered or they have been vaccinated. All of these virus programs need to be deployed on a national scale for millions to be tested or vaccinated.  Based on the present chaotic handling of pandemic logistics, we think testing and vaccination programs will take a long time to reach 83% of the population.

Experts predict the earliest date for a preventative rollout is July of 2021. The delay in a rollout will mean a slow, steady rise of limited economic activity into 4th Quarter 2021.  Due to the economic damage from social distancing forcing many businesses to close and high unemployment, consumer spending will be capped. Reduced consumer spending will be a huge drag on economic recovery. In the meantime, the economy will fall into a deep recession from the massive unemployment levels. Corporations are trying to survive debt payments or find loans, and small businesses are caught in a bureaucracy to get crucial SBA loans. During the next 18 months, the markets will be highly volatile, responding to rumors, ideas, and policies that have yet to be funded or implemented. Even those programs which are funded are riddled in bureaucracy and not able to live up to their objectives.
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sidd

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #426 on: April 17, 2020, 08:35:43 AM »
America's Finest News Source: Thinking of the children

"now there’s only me—a fool with his pockets full of candy, all for naught"

https://local.theonion.com/lonely-pedophile-wistfully-surveys-deserted-schoolyard-1842883329

sidd

blumenkraft

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Moved from Lessons from COVID-19
« Reply #427 on: April 17, 2020, 09:57:21 AM »


<Moved this video from the lessons thread because it does not actually discuss lessons. BTW it would be nice if there is a short description of the content of the video. Why is it here? Why should i watch it? TIA, K. >
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 03:50:08 PM by kassy »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #428 on: April 17, 2020, 03:03:19 PM »
The post-pandemic economy — airlines are treated as utilities, banks serve the people and the government runs a jobs program
Quote
The economy is unraveling, and families are in danger. It’s time for the government to step in as it rarely has before

The carnage continues, with 22 million jobless claims in only four weeks. And the Federal Reserve’s forecast of 47 million coronavirus-related job losses may well be an underestimate.

Meanwhile, the $2 trillion CARES Act that Congress passed will not stop the devastation of the labor market. The small business rescue program just tapped out and, even if the legislative standoff is resolved, the queue for loans dwarfed all expectations. As large corporations are showered with loans without strings attached, families have trouble receiving the promised one-time $1,200 checks. House Democrats are now proposing payments of $2,000 a month until employment returns to pre-crisis levels, but we have yet to see a single policy that is actually designed to create jobs.

How big a stimulus would be sufficient to pull the economy out of the abyss? How much should the government spend? If the focus remained on loans, corporate bailouts and emergency cash assistance, we may need to pass a dozen more CARES packages to tackle the many crises that are about to unfold — from bankrupting states, to mass company and household defaults, to insolvent educational institutions and others. And it may still not be enough. The entire economy is unraveling.

Go big
But there is another way. Government can take far more direct measures. Forget about loans and incentives. Forget about the “invisible hand.” Use the visible hand of government and let it do the heavy lifting.

First, government should protect payrolls at all costs, as some European countries are trying to do: The $2 trillion was enough to pay all wages in the U.S. economy for three months (or longer, if we paid a proportion) and hire the unemployed for a full year at living wages.

Second, the government can commit to paying state’s bills associated with the Covid-19 response, as well as for other social programs (Medicaid, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families). Faced with high unemployment and collapsing tax revenues, states are going broke one after another and the federal government could help with critical expenses on education and even public pension contributions. Block grants to states are nice, but how much will be enough? The bottom is falling faster than we can estimate the shortfalls.

Next, the government must shore up the safety net. Allow anyone to enroll in Medicare. Fund non-profits that deliver social services (food banks, elderly care and others). Provide debt relief for students and their families. Forgive student debt and launch a bigger and bolder Pell Grant program than we’ve ever seen before. The next great default wave will be of educational institutions.

Last but not least, mobilize, mobilize, mobilize. Produce masks, equipment and medication. Build hospitals. Hire and train dispatchers, paramedics, nurses and pharmacists. Pay the volunteers. Train and secure personal protective equipment for transportation and sanitation staff, store clerks and distribution center workers.

Start a jobs program
Start planning a post-pandemic jobs program. Imagine how much better prepared we would have been if we had a federal job guarantee. People enrolled in the program would be kept on the payroll and we would have had the institutional infrastructure to put others on the payroll now. Some of those job guarantee workers could have helped with mobilization needs. Others would shelter in place without the threat of layoffs. But in the absence of a job guarantee, it is never too late to start working on one now. Let it be a “green” job guarantee.

Social distancing will be needed for many months after we flatten the curve. In a service economy, government will need to continue supporting educational institutions, the arts and many other sectors. Some sectors may be decimated (e.g., parts of entertainment — concert venues, sports arenas). Others may operate at a significantly reduced capacity. If these sectors are critical (like the airline industry), government should run them as utilities.

Restructure industries
After the pandemic is behind us, the economy will have to be restructured, no doubt. Some sectors will release significant resources and labor. The way to deal with this problem is to crank up other long-neglected sectors and areas of investment after the pandemic (e.g., clean air and water, green infrastructure, etc.). It is never too late to start planning a “Green New Deal” now.

The bloated and over-leveraged financial sector continues to be systemically dangerous, even with its seemingly endless refinancing from the Federal Reserve. The most effective thing government can do for it is give families stable incomes to service their mortgages and contribute to their 401(K)s. If financial firms are unable to remain profitable without highly speculative activities, close them down and reform finance.

The bottom line is this: There seems to be no way out of this economic catastrophe without the government underwriting large parts of the economy. That’s exactly what it did during the Great Depression and WWII. Today, instead of reacting to the multiple crises that loom ahead, it can take direct steps to prevent them. Pay existing bills, help with mobilization efforts and prepare for what comes next.

The question before us is what kind of an economy do we want going forward? What does it mean to protect society, to guarantee economic security, to prepare in the face of pandemics, climate disasters and financial collapses? In a sense, we have an opportunity to start from scratch. And we should seize it.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-post-pandemic-economy-airlines-are-treated-as-utilities-banks-serve-the-people-and-the-government-runs-a-jobs-program-2020-04-17
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #429 on: April 17, 2020, 03:50:43 PM »
The government taking over?  I sincerely hope not!

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #430 on: April 17, 2020, 05:00:28 PM »
'We May Have to Ration': US Food Banks Face Shortages as Demand Surges
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/17/us-food-banks-over-budget-demand-coronavirus

Food banks face going millions of dollars over budget as they struggle to meet surging demand from those hit hard by mass layoffs caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Across the US, not-for-profit groups are buying truckloads of increasingly expensive food to cope with the sharp increase in the “new needy” – and the dramatic decline in donations from supermarkets left empty by panic shoppers.

The pressures are widespread and growing, according to more than 20 food banks and pantries across 15 states consulted by the Guardian. For example, in Pennsylvania, food banks are spending an extra $1m a week and yet still turning hungry families away.

... “We have enough food for the next month,” warned Lisa Scales, president of Pittsburgh food bank where the money spent buying food has tripled. “With so many businesses shutting, we’re concerned community donations won’t sustain this level.”

As demand escalates, the price of non-perishable staples such as peanut butter, eggs, canned vegetables, beans, pasta, rice and jam is soaring, while supplies are running low with four- to eight-week delays and bottlenecks reported across the supply chain.

The wholesale cost of rice has almost tripled and won’t be delivered until June, according to one Pennsylvania-based distributor that supplies more than 40 food banks. “Canned fruit and veg are very hard to get, rice and pasta is challenging, and costs have gone crazy as manufacturers pay more for labor, food and transport,” said Mike Fellinger.

“If you find rice it’s like gold,” added Ron Mizutani, president of the Hawaii food bank.

... In Las Vegas, drivers of luxury vehicles queued for food boxes. “When you see a Lexus in line at 4am prepared to wait six hours, you know there’s real need,” said Larry Scott from Nevada’s Three Square food bank.

Last week in San Antonio, Texas, an unprecedented 10,000 people showed up in their cars for a pop-up distribution centre – a drive-thru service which typically attracted 400 before the layoffs. That day, 25 semi-trucks of food were handed out, much of it to newly laid off hospitality staff whose last paycheck was already gone, according to Eric Cooper, president of the food bank.

As demand rises, Cooper warns that supplies will run short: “The only thing we can do is ration and give families less … I would challenge our federal government to put systems in place that allow for wasted food to go to families we are feeding. It’s unconscionable.”

... the Department of Agriculture (USDA) has so far refused to fully extend food stamp eligibility using available disaster powers. “This would help tackle hunger and stimulate the economy, but for some reason the USDA isn’t using all the tools in its box,” ... philanthropy is not going to fix this crisis.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #431 on: April 18, 2020, 11:59:39 AM »
The Next Crisis: Food
https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-next-crisis-food/
Quote
I’ve been telling people to “plant a garden” in my daily videos.  There’s a specific sound reason for this.

You may have heard about the lack of workers to plant and harvest veggies, and we’ve read about the shuttering of meat packing plants.

But are you also aware of the ominous rumblings of an increasing number of nations making preparations for the possible loss of food imports?  National ‘food hoarding’ is popping up on my radar screen.
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dnem

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #432 on: April 18, 2020, 01:09:12 PM »
Please. I have a nice garden. The thought of feeding my family from it is preposterous. My early greens and lettuce are starting to come in nicely. We had frost the other night. Haven't even put out any summer vegetables. "Plant a garden" is not a viable answer.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #433 on: April 18, 2020, 06:31:46 PM »
dnem, I have a garden but it is over an acre. Because I plant heirloom seeds I also have ageless issues like wheat rust. My potatoes crashed but I am planting another crop because there is still time. A garden is keeping alive a dream, that you can provide for your family. It is a lifetime effort and the utility of it, the pounds of food produced, and any $ saved seem hard earned but if, if you were ever forced to feed your family you might be able to do so . In the  destitution  that might arrive with a total depression >1929  the years of gardening and effort may pay off, with knowledge gained from the trials of gardening.  Because the land you lack to farm an acre or two may be readily available but the knowledge of how to do so, or the seeds you will need will surely be missing.
 Seed supply companies are already maxed out and nobody is even hungry yet. They will sell out soon.
Keeping seed, gardening, and cooking your own food are a covenant , that you believe in a future. A future where planting enough to live on is common rather than rare. A place where you pass along your knowledge and the seed you maintained  for a lifetime. Because it might help someone else through .
 
So with modern technology how do we put people with the energy of youth together with the land they need to raise enough to live on? Couldn’t efforts at leasing land and putting people to work on small scale agriculture projects still work ? It is critical infrastructure so no lockdown. There is in reality lots of usable land sitting vacant, lawns, horse pasture, vacant lots , etc. 
 Is hunger a problem that will create some movement back to the land ?  Those miles of cars lined up for food handouts are not a good sign. Is hunger going to change anything ?
« Last Edit: April 18, 2020, 06:44:12 PM by Bruce Steele »

dnem

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #434 on: April 18, 2020, 07:03:53 PM »
Thanks Bruce. I did not mean to sound dismissive and I take great pleasure in the food I do produce. But home-based food production has zero chance of helping America through this crisis this growing season in any meaningful way. The most vulnerable are poor and urban (I'm not telling you anything you don't know!) and are already hungry.

But certainly, if a victory garden ethos can arise out of all this as we begin to regain our footing on the other side, that would be wonderful.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #435 on: April 19, 2020, 03:00:28 AM »
We must stop thinking in only two dimensions (land) and start thinking in three dimensions: warehouses (or basements), which are less vulnerable to the whims of weather, plus nontraditional protein sources such as insects.  These can be expanded in urban settings close to where the most food is needed.  Farms and gardens are great, for those lucky enough to have them and who manage to have decent harvets, but “agriculture” must evolve to replace that lost by climate change, soil depletion, polluting animal factories, and labor-intensive crops.  A deep recession may accentuate the benefits of such evolution.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #436 on: April 19, 2020, 03:01:38 AM »
Coronavirus is killing workers at U.S. factories in Mexico
Quote
Here and across the globe, governments and businesses are weighing the economic costs of shutting down life as usual against the risk of the coronavirus spreading.

That question is particularly consequential in Mexico, where the economy was suffering even before the coronavirus hit.

Alfredo Coutiño, Latin America director for Moody’s Analytics, predicts that Mexico’s economy will contract 6.5% in 2020 and the country will enter into a recession “deeper than that during the 2009 financial crisis.”

Driving the downturn are losses in remittances, a decline in tourism, and — significantly for a country whose economy relies on exports for nearly a fifth of its gross domestic product — a major contraction of the export market. ...
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-18/u-s-factories-in-mexico-are-still-open-as-the-coronavirus-spreads-workers-are-dying
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sidd

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #437 on: April 20, 2020, 12:08:43 AM »
Nolan at commondreams: save the capital, kill the workers

"People can be sacrificed—capital is irreplaceable."

"Your willingness to work for very little after this means that you may be valuable enough to make it profitable to not let you die."

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/04/09/plan-save-capital-and-let-people-die

sidd

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #438 on: April 20, 2020, 03:25:44 PM »
US markets haven't priced in a 'significant second wave'
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/us-markets-havent-priced-in-second-wave-of-coronavirus-citi-private-bank.html

Major U.S. stock indexes may have recovered from their recent lows, but Citi Private Bank warned that the worst may not be over.

"In the event that we have a very significant second wave of disease in the United States that cause a further shutdown of the economy ... that clearly is not priced into the market," David Bailin, the bank's chief investment officer, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."

"The other thing that may not be priced into the market is the fact that this virus may take another 18 to 24 months to really cycle through the globe, and ultimately have a vaccine," he added. —Yen Nee Lee
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #439 on: April 20, 2020, 03:50:02 PM »
Survey Reveals Extent of Coronavirus-Related Job Loss, Outsized Impact on Blacks and Latinos
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-survey-reveals-extent-coronavirus-related-job.html

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #440 on: April 20, 2020, 05:09:03 PM »
Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Pandemic and Growth
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/04/between-rock-and-hard-place-pandemic.html
Quote
Authorities around the world are between a rock and a hard place: they need policies that both limit the spread of the coronavirus and allow their economies to "open for business." The two demands are inherently incompatible, and so neither one can be fulfilled.
The problem is the intrinsic natures of the virus and the global economy. This virus is highly contagious during its asymptomatic phase, which is long (5 to 20 days), and therefore impossible to control with the conventional tools of identifying people with symptoms and isolating them, and tracking their contacts with others.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #441 on: April 20, 2020, 05:55:36 PM »
U.S.
”The ability of major companies to receive funding before smaller businesses has emerged as the latest flashpoint in a program that has left many involved dissatisfied since its hurried launch on April 3.”

Shake Shack to return small business loan after uproar
04/20/2020
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Shake Shack plans to return a $10 million loan it received under an emergency small business rescue program, amid a growing backlash against big businesses that got the money before $350 billion in funding lapsed last week.

The burger chain was just one of several large restaurant operators and publicly traded companies that secured tens of millions of dollars in "Paycheck Protection Program" loans before the Trump administration announced Thursday that the funding was exhausted because of the high demand.

Other chains that reported receiving the loans include Potbelly, Ruth's Hospitality Group, Taco Cabana and J. Alexander's. The disclosures infuriated small business owners who were unable to get loans in time. The program, which is intended to avert massive layoffs during the coronavirus pandemic, is focused on businesses with fewer than 500 employees but allowed large restaurant operators to also apply. ...
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/20/shake-shack-to-return-small-business-loan-after-uproar-195928


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Neiman Marcus could declare bankruptcy this week: report
Quote
Neiman Marcus Group is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as this week, Reuters reported Sunday, a casualty of the coronavirus-related economic shutdown. The department-store chain is carrying almost $5 billion in debt and has been forced to temporarily close all its stores and furlough most of its employees due to the pandemic.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Reuters reported the company is close to securing a loan worth hundreds of millions of dollars to keep some of its operations afloat during bankruptcy proceedings.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/neiman-marcus-could-declare-bankruptcy-this-week-report-2020-04-19
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #442 on: April 20, 2020, 11:13:47 PM »
United Selling and Leasing Back 22 Planes in Bid to Conserve Cash During Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-united-selling-leasing-back-planes-in-bid-to-conserve-cash.html

United Airlines has struck a deal with an Asian aircraft leasing firm to sell and then lease back 22 aircraft. Neither United nor the Bank of China Aviation revealed the financial terms of the deal announced Sunday morning.

... Earlier this week, United CEO Oscar Munoz said business has essentially dropped to zero. “We expect to fly fewer people during the entire month of May than we did on a single day in May 2019,” Munoz wrote in a note to employees outlining plans to cut its schedule by 90% in May

---------------------------------

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Likely Leave a Lasting Legacy on Retail: Fewer Department Stores
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/a-lasting-legacy-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-fewer-department-stores.html

America’s department stores are on a sinking ship, racing for a lifeboat that might not be big enough for all of them.

For J.C. Penney, the bankruptcy clock is ticking after it skipped a mid-April interest payment. Its turnaround plans have been sidelined by the coronavirus pandemic, which has forced the closure of all of its stores. Macy’s, with liquidity drying up, has tapped advisors at investment bank Lazard and law firm Kirkland & Ellis to explore options that include new financing.  Nordstrom in early April raised $600 million by placing a handful of its real estate assets into a separate company and borrowing against the new entity by issuing bonds.

High-end department store chain Neiman Marcus also on April 15 missed a payment on some of its bonds, according to a letter sent to the retailer’s board from Marble Ridge Capital, which owns a significant portion of the $137.7 million in bonds that mature in October 2021. Neiman Marcus now has until the middle of May to make the interest payment. After that, pending no payment, the company could be pushed into bankruptcy court by its bondholders.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #443 on: April 20, 2020, 11:53:51 PM »
Pentagon Urges Mexico to Reopen COVID-Closed Factories That Supply US Weapon Makers
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/04/pentagon-urges-mexico-reopen-covid-closed-factories-supply-us-weapon-makers/164756/

The continued flow of various weapons to the Pentagon during the pandemic will depend to a surprising degree on Mexico, the U.S. neighbor frequently criticized by President Trump.

...The Pentagon’s supply-chain dependence on Mexico has grown over the past decade as defense firms large and small outsourced production.

“U.S. and foreign aerospace component suppliers have been increasingly locating production facilities in Mexico,”
the United States International Trade Commission said in a 2013 report. “Lower manufacturing costs (largely due to a lower wage structure), proximity to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the United States, duty-free access to other important aerospace markets, and a Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement (BASA) with the United States all contribute to Mexico’s greater appeal compared with other global manufacturing locations.”

The report signaled out Lockheed Martin, Textron, General Dynamics, General Electric, Honeywell, Rockwell Collins (now Raytheon Technologies), as operating subsidiaries in Mexico.

In 2012, Boeing held an event encouraging suppliers to do more business in Mexico; today it relies on PCC Aerostructures in Monterrey, Mexico. Textron, on its website, touts manufacturing work in Mexico.

In recent weeks, Boeing had been forced to stop military manufacturing in Washington state and Pennsylvania. ...

------------------------------

Senate Aid Package Quietly Carves Out Billions Intended for Boeing, Officials Say
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/25/boeing-bailout-coronavirus/

Lawmakers have inserted in the Senate’s $2 trillion stimulus package a little-noticed provision aimed at providing billions of dollars in emergency assistance to Boeing, the aerospace giant already under fire for deadly safety lapses in its commercial jets, three people with knowledge of the internal deliberations said.

The Senate package includes a $17 billion federal loan program for businesses deemed “critical to maintaining national security.” The provision does not mention Boeing by name but was crafted largely for the company’s benefit, two of the people said. Other firms could also receive a share of the money, one of the people said.

The carve-out is separate from the $58 billion the Senate package is providing in loans for cargo and passenger airlines, as well as the $425 billion in loans it is allocating to help firms, states and cities hurt by the current downturn.

... Trump continues to view Boeing as a critical company with private and defense links that he wants to see supported, although he has at times been unclear privately about how he wants to handle the situation, one senior Republican said. Trump has said repeatedly over past weeks that the federal government would step in to help Boeing, despite criticisms from some nonpartisan experts that federal lawmakers should avoid singling out individual firms for assistance.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #444 on: April 21, 2020, 02:16:36 AM »
If the coronavirus doesn't get you the salmonella will ...

----------------------

'No Way Food Safety Not Compromised': US Regulation Rollbacks During Covid-19 Criticised
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/no-way-food-safety-not-compromised-us-regulatory-roll-backs-during-covid-19-criticised

The US government is accelerating controversial regulatory rollbacks to speed up production at meat plants, as companies express growing alarm at the impact of Covid-19 on their operations.

Last week Smithfield shut down one of the largest pork plants in the country after hundreds of employees contracted the coronavirus. The plant in South Dakota – whose output represents 4–5% of US pork production – is reported to be the largest single-source coronavirus hotspot in the US, with more than 600 cases. In response, the company said it was “critical” for the meat industry to “continue to operate unabated”.

Now it has emerged that as a wave of plants announce closures, US meat plants are being granted permission to increase the speed of their production lines. This comes despite warnings that the waivers for higher speeds on slaughter and processing lines will compromise food safety.

The latest line speed increases, announced by the Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) mean 11 poultry plants have been given waivers to operate higher line speeds in the past 2 weeks. A number of beef and pork plants have also been given waivers, including a beef plant in Kansas in late March. The move will allow the additional chicken factories to slaughter as many as 175 birds a minute – the equivalent of 3 per second.

“There is no way that food safety is not compromised when the sole trained government inspector on the slaughter line in a chicken plant is expected to examine three birds every second,” said Tony Corbo, senior government affairs representative at Food & Water Watch. “The US government has stepped on the accelerator to grant these waivers while everyone is concentrating on the Covid-19 epidemic.”

Under traditional poultry processing rules, line speeds ran at 140 birds a minute, and required at least four inspectors to be stationed on each line, tasked with checking carcasses for defects, disease or contamination, including fecal matter which can cause salmonella. That has since been reduced to one inspector per line, with individual regulatory waivers enabling line speed increases.

... Three years ago the National Chicken Council lobbied the government to scrap line speed limits completely, calling them “arbitrary”.

The line speed increases come as Guardian data analysis reveals that at least one in 10 US poultry slaughterhouses failed government salmonella tests last year. In some categories, failure rates are as high as 34%.

... Targets to reduce salmonella disease outbreaks have also been missed, with a rise of 9% in the incidence rate over the last three years according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Outbreak numbers are rising too. A report by US consumer organisation PIRG found that meat and poultry recalls are up by 65% since 2013. Meanwhile a report by the CDC highlighted the rise in antibiotic-resistant salmonella as a serious threat that requires “prompt and sustained action”.

... A critical report on the FSIS by the US Government Accountability Office in 2018 stated that a review of data had shown that “some plants are still not meeting pathogen standards – in some cases repeatedly not meeting the standards – and are allowed to operate”.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #445 on: April 21, 2020, 04:58:57 AM »
Minnesota Pork Plant Shuts Down After Outbreak Among Workers
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-20/jbs-shuts-down-minnesota-pork-plant-as-virus-roils-meatpackers

JBS SA, the world’s top meat company, will shutter its pork processing facility in Minnesota following an outbreak of coronavirus, adding to concerns that slaughterhouse logjams will tighten meat supplies for consumers.

The Worthington, Minnesota, facility will wind down operations over two days to ensure existing product in the facility can be used to support food supply, JBS said Monday. The move comes after seven workers tested positive for the virus and officials from the Minnesota Department of Health said Friday the number will likely rise. No date was given for a reopening. The closure means more that a 10% of U.S. hog slaughtering capacity is down.

“As we all learn more about coronavirus, it is clear that the disease is far more widespread across the U.S. and in our county than official estimates indicate based on limited testing,” Bob Krebs, president of JBS USA Pork said in a statement. “We have taken aggressive actions to keep coronavirus out of our plant and keep this critical infrastructure facility operational.”

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz said Friday workers from the Minnesota pork plant and a Smithfield plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, could be transferring the virus between the two facilities as there are a lot of family members that work in both plants. JBS’s Worthington facility is tied for third in total U.S. hog slaughter capacity, based on Steiner Consulting data. The facility employs 2,000 people and processes 20,000 hogs per day, according to the company statement.

There are reports of other major hog, cattle and poultry processing plants dealing with cases of coronavirus among their workforce and whether they can continue to stay open will depend on the scale of the outbreak, according to a Monday livestock report from the CME Group. The disease is impacting the entire supply chain and as plants work at reduced capacity or are closed altogether, “this could result in less product available at the grocery store,” according to the report.

The virus is really just starting to spread in the Midwest and meat shortages could easily happen if more plants continue to be impacted
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #446 on: April 21, 2020, 06:04:44 AM »
GM, Ford financing take a hit: used car prices thru the floor

"mid-month data from Manheim. The auto-auction firm’s closely watched used vehicle value index plunged 11.8% in the first 15 days of April, a decline that will easily set a record if it holds for the full month."

"If prices finish the second quarter 10% lower than envisioned, he estimates losses could total $3 billion at GM Financial and $2.8 billion at Ford Credit."

" the market is illiquid "

"Vehicle prices are likely going to come under significant pressure in the coming months as rental-car firms including Hertz Global Holdings Inc. and Avis Budget Group Inc. offload far more vehicles than usual"

"GM and Ford’s captive-finance companies and Ally are doing what they can to limit their contribution to the glut of used vehicles hitting auctions by offering extensions to lease customers"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-ford-face-billions-losses-135232626.html

I know a guy who runs some of Mannheim's biggest auctions ... or used to, they're shut down. He told me this was coming a couple weeks ago. And car prices are already thru the floor. Check out Hertz, for example:

https://www.hertzcarsales.com/used-cars-for-sale.htm?geoZip=43210&compositeType=certified

sidd

NevB

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #447 on: April 21, 2020, 11:11:56 AM »
Not sure where this fits but it definitely belongs somewhere on the ASIF

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/

Quote
We Are Living in a Failed State
The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken.

Quote
The crisis demanded a response that was swift, rational, and collective. The United States reacted instead like Pakistan or Belarus

Aporia_filia

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #448 on: April 21, 2020, 11:43:04 AM »
Is not new but now is much more disgusting, repulsive, how the Netherlands (and Luxembourg) are Paradise islands always ready to bleach black money and send cooperation to hell.

Aporia_filia

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #449 on: April 21, 2020, 11:44:55 AM »
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