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Neven

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #500 on: April 27, 2020, 01:49:11 PM »
We might see substantial persistent unemployment.

And how many parents and grandparents will that kill? Doesn't matter, that's just unemployment.
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dnem

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #501 on: April 27, 2020, 01:56:28 PM »
https://www.vox.com/2018/5/8/17308744/bullshit-jobs-book-david-graeber-occupy-wall-street-karl-marx

Bullshit jobs: why they exist and why you might have one
And why this professor thinks we need a revolution.
By Sean Illing@seanillingsean.illing@vox.com  Updated Nov 9, 2019, 8:47am EST

Do you have a job that you secretly believe is pointless?

If so, you have what anthropologist David Graeber calls a “bullshit job.” A professor at the London School of Economics and a leader of the early Occupy Wall Street movement, Graeber has written a new book called Bullshit Jobs: A Theory.

He argues that there are millions of people across the world — clerical workers, administrators, consultants, telemarketers, corporate lawyers, service personnel, and many others — who are toiling away in meaningless, unnecessary jobs, and they know it.

https://www.amazon.com/Bullshit-Jobs-Theory-David-Graeber/dp/150114331X

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #502 on: April 27, 2020, 07:54:48 PM »
Some consequences of the responses to the pandemic are positive:

Washington, DC:
"We've now strung together 36 "Good" air quality days in a row in the DC region. It's the longest streak on record by a large margin (old record was 22 set last year and tied earlier this year). Note the steady drop in Code Orange and Code Red pollution days.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1254490810298630148

LA, California:
"I’ve lived in Los Angeles since 1992. I’ve always loved looking at the downtown skyeline. The stay at home order has reduced air pollution significantly. Mother Nature is now healing herself. Wait, we have fucking mountains?”
https://mobile.twitter.com/avenaim/status/1254428886747635712
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #503 on: April 27, 2020, 08:51:57 PM »
Tyson Warns That the Meat Supply Chain Is Cracking
Quote
It could be a while before many popular pork, chicken, and beef products are back in supermarkets.

Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) is experiencing a major disruption to its meat supply chain. The producer of pork, beef, and chicken brands including Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, and Ball Park said in a Sunday advertisement in national newspapers that consumers can expect significant shortages across its product line due to COVID-19 challenges.

"The food supply chain is breaking," an executive explained, due to the temporary closure of meat processing plants like the one in Waterloo, Iowa, that shut down on April 22.

That closure removed a major source of demand for farmers who raise chickens, cows, and pigs for commercial processing, Tyson said at the time, and the inventory pressure has only increased since then. "There will be limited supply of our products available in grocery stores until we are able to reopen our facilities," executives explained in the weekend ad.

While the supply chain challenge has pressured Tyson's stock in recent weeks, it has added to investor enthusiasm for Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND). The plant-based meat substitute specialist recently announced a new partnership with Starbucks and is expected to report a more than 100% sales increase when it announces its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, May 5. 
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/27/tyson-warns-that-the-meat-supply-chain-is-cracking.aspx

—-
However...
Analysts at UBS downgraded Beyond Meat stock today over concerns that many restaurants and outlets won’t survive the pandemic and those that do may only recover slowly.  Also, there is growing competition from companies like Impossible Foods and Kelloggs.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meat-downgraded-on-concerns-that-the-soaring-stock-doesnt-take-restaurant-exposure-and-competition-into-account-2020-04-27
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #504 on: April 27, 2020, 09:42:11 PM »
In the “base case” for the U.S. economy, published by his firm, Rosenberg Research, the economy “reopens” in May, in a staggered approach across industries and regions. Leading to:  a  30% contraction in real gross domestic product in the second quarter, negative year-over-year consumer price growth for 5 quarters, and an unemployment rate of 14.2% by the end of 2020, averaging 13% throughout 2021.

The “worst-case” scenario is grim. It involves no vaccine, no treatment, and a second wave coronavirus outbreak next winter that severely saps business and household confidence. In this outlook, the jobless rate hits 20% — and averages 17.5% through 2021.

The ‘Great Repression’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame, economist says
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-great-repression-is-here-and-it-will-make-past-downturns-look-tame-economist-says-2020-04-27
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dnem

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #505 on: April 28, 2020, 03:43:09 AM »
Here's one for the "debt is no problem" camp. The article argues that we wracked up just as much debt in WW2 as we are now and we just grew out of it in the ensuing decades.  I'd argue that the next few decades will be very different from the second half of the 20th century as we deal with the rising costs of the climate crisis and a growing realization that we need to reign in growth to maintain a functioning biosphere.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/who-pays-for-this/

That’s how government debt gets repaid after it piles up. You don’t pay it off. You grow your way out of it.

This isn’t intuitive because it doesn’t apply to people. When a person takes out a mortgage or a car loan, there’s a repayment date. But that’s only because people have finite careers and lifespans, so there’s an “end date” where all debts have to be repaid.

Countries (and to some extent companies) are different. They have indefinite lives. So they can remain indebted indefinitely, even with rising debt.

As long as nominal GDP growth is higher than the annual budget deficit, debt to GDP goes down, and spending more than you take in leaves you with a lower debt burden.

This is so simple, but it’s easily overlooked because it doesn’t apply to people.



vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #506 on: April 28, 2020, 03:46:46 AM »
Coronavirus Breaks the Food Supply Chain
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-meat-packing-plants-closures-food-31411778-7180-4f58-a1aa-64a709f1eccf.html

What's next: House Agriculture Chair Collin Peterson told CNN today that he predicts shortages of pork as soon as next week.

The bottom line: America's farmers have long feared that everyday citizens were clueless about how their food gets made.

Unfortunately, it appears that this education is now happening in a flash.




« Last Edit: April 28, 2020, 04:14:59 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bruce Steele

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #507 on: April 28, 2020, 05:20:40 AM »
Voxmundi, From the perspective of a pork producer you just can’t prepare for this . It takes a long time to get pigs from conception to market so nobody has extra pigs to sell in those places we still have slaughter available and there is not much you can do with extra pigs you can’t market. For a hundred
pigs you can spend a couple thousand a month on feed.
 I don’t know what transportation from Nebraska to Calif. costs for live transport but it is happening.
Our slaughter capacity is very limited however.
 Chickens can be raised to market in about two months and they are the only animal that USDA allows farm slaughter and processing. I know the farm to market frozen meat demand has doubled so if someone wanted to raise chickens they could probably have an instant market if anyone wanted to venture into farming right now.
 Fat chance


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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #508 on: April 28, 2020, 02:00:06 PM »
Life After COVID: A Look at the New Economy
https://www.theorganicprepper.com/after-covid-new-economy/
Quote
Two reasons that the world After COVID will be so different are problems with the economy and the supply chain. Let’s take a look at both and see where we’re headed.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #509 on: April 28, 2020, 04:00:30 PM »
While we ponder the length of time until a vaccine is protective enough to safely and widely re-open the economy in some form, consider that for a significant proportion of even the developed world (in this example, the U.S.), it will never be:  “Nearly 14,000 votes and 69.2% of Liz's followers said they will NOT get a COVID-19 vaccine once available.”

Liz Wheeler is from OAN, the “One America News” Network, a conservative, far right-wing news and opinion channel that regularly features pro-Donald Trump stories.  The channel has been noted for promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories.

From: https://twitter.com/andrewkimmel/status/1254909408905097216
And wikipedia.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #510 on: April 28, 2020, 10:32:45 PM »
Trump Plans to Order Meat Processing Plants to Stay Open During Coronavirus
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3038300001

WASHINGTON – Faced with worries of a meat shortage caused by the coronavirus, President Donald Trump plans to order meat-processing plants to remain open and will try to protect them from legal liability, officials said Tuesday.

Trump plans to declare meat plants as critical infrastructure, and cite the Defense Production Act to justify an order to keep them open, said two officials familiar with the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity because the order is not yet completed.

Trump could sign the order as early as Tuesday, officials said, and it will likely cover other types of food processing facilities.

Trump also said he would issue an executive order to shield meat plants from legal liability if they are sued by employees who contract coronavirus while on the job. While Trump only mentioned Tyson Foods specifically, he suggested his order would protect other businesses from liability as well.

---------------------------

... More than 4,400 meatpacking workers have tested positive for the virus, and at least 18 have died from the virus as of Tuesday morning, ... workers have tested positive at at least 80 plants in 26 states, and there have been 28 closures of at least a day.

USA TODAY also found that 153 of the nation’s largest meatpacking plants, about one in three, operates in a county with a high rate of COVID-19 infection, raising concerns that more workers at more plants will fall ill.

Department of Agriculture data show at least 838,000 fewer cattle, hogs and sheep were slaughtered for meat processing over the past week compared to the same time period last year, a 28% drop. Tuesday marked the worst day yet, with total slaughter falling 39% compared to the same day last year.

The order was slammed by the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union.

"We only wish that this administration cared as much about the lives of working people as it does about meat, pork and poultry products," said Stuart Appelbaum, the union's president

... "Is he saying, if an owner tells a worker he needs to work next to a sick person without a mask and wouldn’t be liable?" Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters. "That wouldn't make sense."

----------------------------

« Last Edit: April 28, 2020, 10:41:30 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bruce Steele

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #511 on: April 29, 2020, 12:21:09 AM »
I can see the government backstopping insurance liability for meat packing plants but ultimately double shifts or efforts at running with reduced concentrations of workers on packing lines means the farmers will likely have increased slaughter/ butchery costs .
 The costs of USDA slaughter / butchery costs are already very high and that is the main reason Calif. imports almost all it’s pork. Calif. Per pig slaughter $75-$110 depending on size, butchery cut and wrap
$450-600 also depends on size ( lbs ) and which cuts you want. Feed $ 350-400  Veterinarians and healthcare, $50  transport $100   So for a 220 lb. hanging weight you have about $1020 in expenses or for 300 lbs you have about $1260.
 Commodity pork sells for less than $2 per lb.  My pigs are not commodity pork but when I need about $8-9 per lb. for what I sell it comes as a real marketing challenge . 
 Most people count their time as an hourly wage. I work about thirty hours a week and my wife works to deal with sales , phone , finances, paperwork ad nauseam.
 A farm has  expenses like taxes, fences , water, electric, trucks, trailers and new breeding stock
 Some years I don’t break even , most  years I make less than a thousand a month , my wife has a real job .
 So if slaughter / butchery or feed costs go up who is my customer base for $10 pork ?
Commodity pork is what people are willing to pay for and the factory farm model that supplies it would probably convince people they should find another form of protein if they knew the lives that those confinement pigs were forced to live.  Same for chickens. Cheap protein comes with a cost but I guess
Trump knows what no meat in the meat case means to MAGA. 
Freedom comes with a cost, my pigs have pasture and are well kept
I have a farm and it is worth suffering low wages
but what freedom do the low wage packing plant employees have ?
Only the freedom to quit or the choice to volunteer for herd immunity and an extra dollar or two in hourly wages.
 






 
« Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 12:36:25 AM by Bruce Steele »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #512 on: April 29, 2020, 12:49:58 AM »
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depression-covid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04
Quote
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Quote
These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #513 on: April 29, 2020, 01:03:09 AM »
The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Drifting has this connotation of being swept along. Stop being sheeple?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #514 on: April 29, 2020, 02:04:38 AM »
Pandemic effects have slashed states’ income.  Muni bonds and federal money are needed to keep them alive.

The $3.8 trillion municipal bond market, rocked by the coronavirus, looks to Washington for help
Quote
$3.8 trillion market for funding state and local governments, airports, schools and hospitals faces a test next month as New York City's transit agency offers bonds to the market for the first time since the coronavirus emptied its subways, trains and buses.

Investing in the roughly $900 million offering from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority will be a leap of faith on the part of investors who will will have to imagine a healthier, post-shutdown New York economy, where commuters return to work, students go back to school and tourists come to see Broadway shows again.

Many issuers face uncertainty, as states and cities grapple with how to fill a sudden budget hole and move forward, in an environment of uncertainty about what the economic rebound will look like and how it will impact future revenues.

The issuers of state and local debt are facing a crisis unlike any other, with the sudden loss of revenues nationally from income taxes, sales taxes, parking, and even hotel room taxes. Collectively these governments are seeking another $750 billion from the federal government, a request that is expected to pit Republicans against Democrats and red states against blue states.

New Jersey's Gov. Phil Murphy told CNBC this week that the state's problem has been made worse because revenues have "fallen off a table" and that it will run out of cash in four to six weeks. At that point, it will be hard to pay police and teachers, he said.

Moody's says the states alone will lose out on $160 billion in revenues from 2019 to fiscal year 2021, which for many states begins on July 1. Moody's said there is a $200 billion shortfall in what the states expected to receive.  "Even with an assumed revenue upturn beginning for most states in fiscal 2022, our base scenario does not result in a recovery to fiscal 2019 levels by fiscal 2024," according to Moody's.


Political headwinds
Strategists expect to see a wave of credit downgrades, some defaults and also political headwinds as they try to adjust spending or raise taxes to make up their shortfalls.

McConnell has already thrown out the suggestion that states should go bankrupt, and his office issued statements calling the request for relief "blue state bailouts." His comment drew protest from governors, including a sharply worded reaction from the Democratic governors of New York and New Jersey. His comment was also criticized by Maryland's Republican governor, and is seen as unlikely to gain traction in Congress, which would have to change existing law to allow for bankruptcies. Unlike local governments, states are prohibited from filing for bankruptcy.

Strategists say ratings agencies may not catch up with some issues until later on, and they point out that some cities and states are more reliant on sales taxes than others. Some are dependent on tourism and revenues from hotels. In the case of Las Vegas, it relies on hotels and casinos. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/the-3point8-trillion-municipal-bond-market-rocked-by-the-coronavirus-downturn-is-facing-a-key-test.html
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #515 on: April 29, 2020, 09:23:19 AM »
'Economy is going to be very slow coming out of the recession:' Strategist
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economy-is-going-to-be-very-slow-coming-out-of-the-recession-strategist-201432453.html
Quote
Investors may be ahead of themselves if they’re expecting an economic V-shaped recovery, according to one top strategist.

“We've got this epic battle between monetary and fiscal policy on one side, and weak economic earnings, earnings data on the other,” Tony Dwyer, managing director and chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, told Yahoo Finance.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #516 on: April 29, 2020, 12:21:58 PM »
While we ponder the length of time until a vaccine is protective enough to safely and widely re-open the economy in some form, consider that for a significant proportion of even the developed world (in this example, the U.S.), it will never be:  “Nearly 14,000 votes and 69.2% of Liz's followers said they will NOT get a COVID-19 vaccine once available.”

Liz Wheeler is from OAN, the “One America News” Network, a conservative, far right-wing news and opinion channel that regularly features pro-Donald Trump stories.  The channel has been noted for promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories.

From: https://twitter.com/andrewkimmel/status/1254909408905097216
And wikipedia.


seeing the word "news" being used to define that organization makes me twitch

dnem

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #517 on: April 29, 2020, 01:06:14 PM »
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depression-covid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04
Quote
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Quote
These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression.

Interesting article, Tom, not written by a nut. The piece essentially sums up the myriad ways humanity's darker angels may respond to the intertwined issues of the structural instabilities already in place before the pandemic, the pandemic itself, and the coming additional environmental challenges that need to be considered as the world responds. Worth reading.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #518 on: April 29, 2020, 01:46:36 PM »
Texas has mandated some rather well thought out restrictions for reopening:

Texas restaurants, retailers and other businesses can reopen Friday. Here's the rules they have to follow.
Parties of six or less, disposable menus and limited capacity are among the new rules businesses will follow if they open this Friday.
April 28, 2020
Quote
Gov. Greg Abbott’s plan to reopen Texas will allow some businesses — like retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls — to open as early as Friday, with new rules outlined by the governor's taskforce.

Abbott also said a second wave of openings and looser restrictions that will include barbershops, hair salons, bars and gyms could go into effect as early as May 18, as long as the state sees "two weeks of data to confirm no flare-up of COVID-19."

Here’s how Friday’s reopening plan will work.

Retailers and Malls
Malls and retailers across Texas can reopen but must keep capacity limited to 25%. But for rural counties with less than five confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, retailers can serve up to 50% of their regular capacity.

Areas including food court dining space, play areas and interactive displays must remain closed.

Retailers can also offer customers in-store pick up or get items delivered by mail or to their doorstep.

The task force recommends stores implement either specific pick up times for at-risk customers or that workers take their purchase out to the customer’s car.

Restaurants
On Friday, dine-in service is back on at restaurants but capacity is limited to 25%. But for rural counties with less than five confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, restaurants can serve up to 50% of their regular capacity.

Bars are to remain closed, even if they offer food.

Only six people will be allowed at a table and parties will be seated at least 6 feet apart from each other.  Patrons who choose to dine-in at a restaurant should expect a few new practices: disposable menus, condiments served upon request and in single-use portions (a side of ketchup instead of a ketchup bottle), buffets that aren’t self serve and a hand sanitizing station at the restaurant entrance.
...
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/28/texas-reopening-restaurants-greg-abbott/
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dnem

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #519 on: April 29, 2020, 01:59:18 PM »
Texas has mandated some rather well thought out restrictions for reopening:

Texas restaurants, retailers and other businesses can reopen Friday. Here's the rules they have to follow.
Parties of six or less, disposable menus and limited capacity are among the new rules businesses will follow if they open this Friday.

Only six people will be allowed at a table and parties will be seated at least 6 feet apart from each other.  Patrons who choose to dine-in at a restaurant should expect a few new practices: disposable menus, condiments served upon request and in single-use portions (a side of ketchup instead of a ketchup bottle), buffets that aren’t self serve and a hand sanitizing station at the restaurant entrance.
... [/size]
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/28/texas-reopening-restaurants-greg-abbott/
[/quote]

Man, the restaurant business is really tough in normal times. There is no way a restaurant can be profitable under these circumstance. If one could, it would be with a dramatically reduced workforce.  I guess as a stopgap to limp along until a more full re-opening is possible, this could help.

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #520 on: April 29, 2020, 02:23:57 PM »
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depression-covid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04
Quote
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Quote
These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression.

Interesting article, Tom, not written by a nut. The piece essentially sums up the myriad ways humanity's darker angels may respond to the intertwined issues of the structural instabilities already in place before the pandemic, the pandemic itself, and the coming additional environmental challenges that need to be considered as the world responds. Worth reading.

Agree, good reading. Nouriel Roubini was called Dr.Doom after the financial crisis. The nickname isn't really justified although he admittedly leans to the darker side of things. Nevertheless he is one those extremely sharp figures who have the ability to spot and pronounce the obvious trends most of us fail to see.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #521 on: April 29, 2020, 06:01:33 PM »
Not just “work from home.”  Business travel will change markedly.
Quote
Even after plants reopen and life returns to something that resembles normal, a lot will remain different. Covid-19 has turbocharged trends toward automation and digitization.

“Let me give you a quick vignette,” Culp says . GE’s renewable power business had to do some field-service work in Montenegro, but there was no way to get the experts to the site. GE “jerry-rigged” an augmented-reality headset to bring the site to its experts. No one had to cross borders to conduct the work. “We are getting years of change under the pressure cooker of the recent moment.” adds the new CEO.

It isn’t only office workers that will see their commuting and travel patterns changed in coming months and years. Manufacturing employees and maintenance staff will have to adapt too. ...
https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-wants-the-u-s-to-go-back-to-work-heres-how-it-will-happen-51588173303
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #522 on: April 29, 2020, 09:05:11 PM »
Over 50% of U.S. malls with department stores are predicted to close by 2021, real estate services firm says
Quote
First, the department store closes. Then, the apparel shops try to scoot out of deals. This is a one-two punch that could trigger a wave of malls shutting for good over the next 12 months.

More than 50% of all the malls anchored by department stores in America could close permanently by the end of 2021, a new report by Green Street Advisors predicts. There are about 1,000 malls still open in the U.S. And roughly 60% of those have department store retailers, such as Macy's, as anchor tenants, the commercial real estate services firm said.

The coronavirus pandemic that has slammed the U.S. economy is speeding up the demise of department stores. As Covid-19 forced the likes of J.C. Penney, Macy's, Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus to shut stores, the circumstances became even more dire for these already struggling companies. Slumping sales and an overhang of debt could push some into bankruptcy. Strained for cash, these retailers are scrambling for additional liquidity. More department store closures are inevitable. And that will put another level of pressure on mall owners.
...
Mall owners' finances are also being strained, as a number of tenants including Gap are not paying rent during the pandemic. That could mean some landlords aren't able to make their own mortgage payments, and end up having to hand the keys to malls back to lenders. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/50percent-of-all-these-malls-forecast-to-close-by-2021-green-street-advisors-says.html


—- Edit, added:
Hertz in talks with creditors to avoid debt default, faces May 4 deadline
Quote
(Reuters) - Hertz Global Holdings Inc (HTZ.N) said on Wednesday it was in talks with its lenders to avoid defaulting on debt related to its rental vehicle fleet, after skipping a payment that was due April 27.

Hertz, whose Hertz Corp subsidiary operates the Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty rental brands, said in a regulatory filing that it had suffered a “sudden and dramatic negative impact” on its business due to the coronavirus pandemic, which has crushed demand for rental cars as people cancel travel and stay at home.
...
Even before the pandemic, Hertz and its peers were under financial pressure as travelers shifted to ride-hailing services such as Uber Technologies Inc.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hertzglo-hldg-debt/hertz-in-talks-with-creditors-to-avoid-debt-default-faces-may-4-deadline-idUSKBN22B302
« Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 09:35:01 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #523 on: April 29, 2020, 09:14:26 PM »
Fed pledges to keep rates near zero until full employment, inflation come back
Quote
The Federal Reserve painted a dour picture of current conditions and pledged Wednesday to continue its historically aggressive policy stance until it is comfortable that the U.S. economy is back on its feet.

Following this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the central bank said it would maintain its current interest rate target between 0% and 0.25%.

"The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," the committee said in its post-meeting statement. "The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals."

The commitment represents a pledge to hold rates near zero and keep them there until full employment returns and inflation gets back to around the Fed's long-stated 2% goal.

"We're going to not be in any hurry to withdraw these measures or to lift off. We're going to wait until we're quite confident that the economy is well on the road to recovery," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a post-meeting news conference.

There was no expression in the statement that the Fed feels confident about what its moves will lead to in terms of economic growth. Instead, the committee said it will continue to monitor conditions "including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/fed-decision-fed-pledges-to-keep-rates-near-zero-until-full-employment-inflation-come-back.html
« Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 09:34:41 PM by Sigmetnow »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #524 on: April 29, 2020, 11:38:04 PM »
Economic Damage Could Be Worse Without Lockdown and Social Distancing, Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-economic-worse-lockdown-social-distancing.html

New research from the University of Cambridge suggests that there is no absolute trade-off between the economy and human health—and that the economic price of inaction could be twice as high as that of a "structured lockdown."

A Cambridge economist, together with researchers at the US Federal Reserve Board, has combined macroeconomics with aspects of epidemiology to develop a model for the economic consequences of social distancing.

It divides the working population into "core workers"—those in healthcare as well as food and transportation, sanitation and energy supply, among others—and then everyone else, and models the spread of the virus if no action is taken.

"Without public health restrictions, the random spread of the disease will inevitably hit sectors and industries that are essential for the economy to run," said co-author Prof Giancarlo Corsetti, from Cambridge's Faculty of Economics.

"Labour shortfalls among core workers in particular strip more value from the economy. As essential team members within this core sector drop out of the workforce, it impairs production far more than losing those in other areas of the economy."

By separating the core and non-core workers, the study suggests that the economy would shrink by 30% or more without lockdown and social distancing. "By ignoring this division in the workforce, we may badly underestimate the true depth of economic damage," Corsetti said.

Using data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the researchers then quantified the share of workers who could "reasonably keep performing occupational tasks at home": 15% of those in core sectors, and 40% of everyone else currently working—along with 30% of all non-working age people, from children to the retired. This puts a third of the entire population on lockdown.

In this scenario, the infection curve is smoothed out through social distancing, and the rate of loss in economic output is around 15%, just half the level of damage if no action is taken to prevent disease spread.

Sickness rates for core workers would be the same as the rest of the population, the high levels of social distancing elsewhere act as a shield.

"This overarching policy flattens the curve," said Corsetti. "The peak of the infected share of the population drops from 40% to about 15%. However, this is still far too high given the capacities of healthcare systems."

So the researchers also modelled a scenario where infection rates are kept to a manageable level for healthcare services of under 1.5% of the population for 18 months—the length of time many believe it will take for a vaccine to arrive.

This would mean lockdown shares of 25% of core workers, 60% of workers outside of core, and 47% of non-working age people. Under this scenario, the economy contracts by 20%.

The study also looked at a very strict lockdown—40% of core workers and 90% each of non-working age and everyone else—that lasts for just three months. Such a scenario simply delays the infection rates but prevents "herd immunity," creating an economic drop comparable to that of taking no action in the first place.

"As well as containing the loss of life, committing to long-term social distancing structured to keep core workers active can significantly smooth the economic costs of the disease," said Corsetti.

"The more we can target lockdown policies toward sections of the population who are not active in the labour market, or who work outside of the core sector, the greater the benefit to the economy," he said.

https://www.inet.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-pdfs/wp2017.pdf
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #525 on: April 30, 2020, 02:59:39 PM »
Small Farmers, Already Stressed and Underfunded, Struggle for Federal Coronavirus Relief
https://theintercept.com/2020/04/29/small-farms-coronavirus-aid/

Before Coronavirus hit, farmers in the U.S. were already hurting from years of falling food prices, severe weather, and, more recently, President Donald Trump’s trade war. “We’ve had a record number of farm bankruptcies [in the U.S.], total farm debt is at $425 billion, [and farmer] incomes have fallen by about half since 2013,” said Eric Deeble, policy director at the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, which supports small and mid-sized family farms.

Now, with the global pandemic closing factories and restaurants and disrupting supply chains, already stressed farms are grappling with lower demand and fewer markets to sell in, as well as a presidential administration that favors relief for big businesses over small. Small farmers in particular — those who sell directly to farmers markets, schools, and other local food hubs — are facing an existential crisis, as they face slim odds of accessing competitive federal stimulus money.

They have reason to be pessimistic. In recent years, federal subsidies to help struggling farmers have flowed almost exclusively to large corporate farms. Of the roughly $28 billion the Trump administration has distributed to food producers to offset losses from his trade wars, almost all went to big farms.

Advocates for small farmers say this is driven in part by the preference of Trump’s agriculture secretary, Sonny Purdue, who has encouraged farmers to get bigger farms if they wanted to stay in business. “Big get bigger and small go out … and that’s what we’ve seen,” he told a group of Wisconsin dairy farmers in 2018, echoing Richard Nixon’s agriculture secretary, who infamously told farmers in the 1970s to “get big or get out.” While 91 percent of U.S. farms are small — defined by the federal government as an operation with gross cash income under $250,000 — large farms account for 85 percent of the country’s farm production.

... While lawmakers did not include all that advocates pressed for — like emergency food purchases from small processors and direct payments to small farms — the CARES Act did allocate $9.5 billion to farmers and said some (unspecified portion) of that amount should go to “producers that supply local food systems, including farmers markets, restaurants, and schools.”

But in the weeks following the CARES Act, farmers struggled to access any relief, as the agriculture aid stalled and many farmers found themselves ineligible for the Small Business Administration emergency loans. On April 10, 33 senators sent a bipartisan letter to Purdue, urging the USDA to follow the CARES Act and distribute federal aid to small farmers specifically. A week later, when the USDA finally announced how it planned to allocate the $9.5 billion from the CARES Act, it appeared that no money would be reserved specifically for small farmers.

... “Bailout money always goes to the big farmers, the people who produce soy and crops and sell into commodity markets,” said John Peck, executive director of Family Farm Defenders, a national organization that supports sustainable agriculture. “This is all part of our country’s cheap food policy where we basically subsidize capital-intensive, large-scale industrial farming.”

... California has deemed farmers markets essential, but other states have shut them down or left it more ambiguous. Advocates say open-air markets can serve as a safer way to buy groceries during the pandemic.

“If farmers markets go out of business that means local farmers lose access to those consumers,” ... it is typically much harder for small farmers to sell their products to large grocery stores.

Peck of Family Farm Defenders said he worries this pandemic will be exploited by big corporations to crush the local food movement and correspondingly wreak further damage on the climate. “To feed the world and cool the planet, we need to move away from industrial agribusiness,” he said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #526 on: April 30, 2020, 03:17:56 PM »
US Weekly Jobless Claims Hit 3.84 Million, Topping 30 Million Over the Last 6 Weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #527 on: April 30, 2020, 08:14:01 PM »
If anyone you know needs grocery assistance Feeding America is a very good resource, for help finding your local food bank and for a lot more than just food.

https://www.feedingamerica.org/need-help-find-food

The Feeding America network of 200 food banks and 60,000 food pantries and meal programs serve virtually every community in all 50 states, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico. Food is free without any expectation of donation or repayment.

Whether you are here for the first time or have used food assistance before the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of federal programs are available to help make ends meet during difficult times. State and federal programs have expanded to help even more people.

- SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps)
- Child Nutrition Programs
- WIC (Women and Infant Children)

Navigating all of these changes to federal programs can be difficult at an already stressful time in your life. We are here to help you make sense of it all. We answered some of the most frequently asked questions about changes to food assistance programs during COVID-19.

-----------------------------

Mutual Aid Networks Are Distributing Food With Tech That Works For Everyone
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5xzg9/mutual-aid-networks-are-distributing-food-with-tech-that-works-for-everyone

As the epicenter of COVID-19 in the United States, New York City has quickly become one of the country’s largest hubs of mutual aid, with residents redistributing food, medical supplies, and personal protective equipment to people in need during the crisis. Unlike charities, mutual aid efforts involve groups of people pooling their resources to help each other directly instead of waiting on assistance from governments, corporations, and other institutions.

Virtually all the tech platforms we use on a daily basis were designed with profit-seeking business in mind, and more often than not, their usage reflects those intentions. But in response to COVID-19, mutual aid groups have begun using those platforms as a springboard for more robust systems designed entirely around helping and connecting people throughout the crisis.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #528 on: April 30, 2020, 09:54:14 PM »
Georgia Ditches Road Testing New Drivers Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/04/georgia-ditches-road-testing-new-drivers-amid-pandemic/

On April 23, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp issued an executive order packed with directives. Many of these are aimed at businesss that want to reopen, for Kemp has been ahead of the curve—even compared to President Trump—when it comes to relaxing rules meant to prevent the spread of the virus. But among the new instructions for businesses like cinemas and tattoo parlors that want to reopen, one of them announces that the state's Department of Driver Services is temporarily dropping driving tests for new drivers.

"[A]pplicants for a driver's license shall not be required to complete a comprehensive on-the-road driving test, provided all other requirements outlined in Code Section 40-5-27 are met," says the executive order.

As long as a driver has a valid instruction permit and has completed 40 hours of supervised driving, they can convert their permit to a driver's license online, at least until this executive order expires in mid-May. And those 40 hours of supervised driving are actually on the honor system, since the state doesn't appear to have a way to check that the new driver has actually completed that requirement.

Last year, Atlanta, the largest city in Georgia, was ranked 178 out of 200 US cities for safe driving by the insurance company Allstate.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #529 on: May 01, 2020, 01:36:21 AM »
Wells Fargo will no longer accept applications for home equity lines of credit
Quote
Wells Fargo, one of the largest home lenders in the U.S., is stepping away from the market for home equity lines of credit because of uncertainty tied to the coronavirus pandemic.

The bank informed its mortgage personnel of the news Thursday in a conference call, according to a source, and the move was confirmed by company spokesman Tom Goyda.

"Wells Fargo Home Lending will temporarily stop accepting applications for all new home equity lines of credit after April 30," Goyda said in an emailed statement. The choice "reflects careful consideration of current market conditions and the uncertainty around the timing and scope of the anticipated economic recovery."

Banks have been retreating from loans tied to housing as the coronavirus pandemic impacts home values and the creditworthiness of borrowers. Earlier this month, JPMorgan Chase said it was dropping HELOCs and also tightened conditions in which it will make mortgages, requiring higher FICO scores and bigger down payments for new loans. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/wells-fargo-says-it-will-no-longer-accept-applications-for-home-equity-lines-of-credit.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #530 on: May 01, 2020, 07:46:56 AM »
Meatpacking Plant in Colorado Sees Uptick in Cases as Operations Restart
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-europe.html

The number of reported coronavirus cases more than doubled over a few days at a JBS meatpacking plant in Colorado after reopening nearly a week ago, Reuters reported citing a union official.

The plant in Greeley began operations again last Friday after two weeks of closure as the company sought to stem an outbreak among workers, Reuters reported. The number of confirmed cases at the plant spiked to 245 on Wednesday — from 120 on Sunday, a union spokesperson told Reuters.

“The uptick in cases in a matter of days shows how serious this crisis is and the dangers that workers are facing every day just trying to do their jobs,” Kim Cordova, president of United Food and Commercial Workers, told Reuters.

It comes as President Donald Trump this week invoked the Defense Production Act to mandate that meatpacking plants should remain open, as “closures threaten the continued functioning of the national meat and poultry supply chain.”

-----------------------------

Tons of Fruit and Flowers Are At Risk of Spoiling As Virus Disrupts Supply Chains
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-disrupts-supply-demand-farmers-throw-flowers-milk-fruit.html

Farmers globally are grappling with excess supplies of their products as their harvests cannot get to their intended customers due to disruptions from lockdowns and movement restrictions.

Some have turned to creative ways to get rid of excess supplies. Belgians have been asked to eat more fries, as more than 750,000 tons of potatoes are at risk of being thrown away; Indian farmers are feeding their cows strawberries, which are normally meant for tourists and ice-cream producers; while companies in the Netherlands are buying up flowers to give away to employees.

“The lockdowns that we are all experiencing across the globe are causing a disruption of labor, so we are not getting people into the fields to produce on farms,” said Michael Strano, a lead principal investigator for disruptive and sustainable technology in agriculture at the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology.

“It’s a disruption of worldwide transport and supply chains that is causing this unusual phenomenon of shortages in some areas and excess in others,” he added.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #531 on: May 01, 2020, 03:08:59 PM »
While local officials beg governors to close meat packing plants that are the center of several of the biggest COVID-19 outbreaks in the U.S., the federal government declares meatpacking plants can’t be forced to close, and state governors threaten workers to come to work despite the risk, or else their unemployment benefits will be eliminated. 
Edit:  Affected Republican-led states do not even have stay-home or restrict-businesses orders.
“Cray” means crazy.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/republicans-press-re-open-strategy-as-coronavirus-digs-into-midwest-82791493891
« Last Edit: May 01, 2020, 03:19:13 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #532 on: May 02, 2020, 03:12:01 AM »
Mortgage Bailout Program Balloons Again As More Homeowners Put Off Payments
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-more-homeowners-delay-mortgage-payments-in-bailout.html

A growing number of borrowers are delaying monthly mortgage payments as part of the government's bailout program, as the ranks of the unemployed continued to swell due to the coronavirus outbreak.

As of Thursday, more than 3.8 million homeowners, or 7.3% of all active mortgages, were in forbearance, according to mortgage data and analytics firm Black Knight.

The federal program allows borrowers to delay up to a year's worth of payments, though they must be made up later through either repayment plans or mortgage modifications, according to CNBC's Diana Olick

---------------------------------

More Big Employers Are Talking About Permanent Work-From-Home Positions
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/major-companies-talking-about-permanent-work-from-home-positions.html

Companies have been forced to embrace remote working amid stay-at-home orders for all nonessential positions and businesses.

With proof that productivity does not suffer, more major employers, including Mondelez, Nationwide, and Barclays, talk about a permanent shift to work from home and reduced office space.

------------------------------

Target, Walmart workers and others plan 'sickout' protests over coronavirus safety
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/target-walmart-workers-and-others-plan-sickout-protests-over-coronavirus-safety.html

Workers are planning to call out of work today as part of a nationwide employee "sickout" involving companies like Target, Whole Foods, Amazon, Instacart, FedEx, and Walmart.

They are protesting the slashing of hours, unstable schedules, and the need for greater health benefits. They are also asking for greater safety protections from the coronavirus at their jobs.

----------------------------------

Germany's Economic Response Is An Example for the World, Union Chief Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-germany-ilo-chief-says-it-set-a-global-economic-example.html

Germany's approach to employment in the coronavirus crisis is an example of how the world can deal with the economic fallout of the pandemic, the head of the United Nation's labor agency said.

Guy Ryder, the director-general of the International Labour Organization (ILO), told CNBC that under Germany's "Kurzarbeit," or "short-time work," program workers are sent home or see their hours slashed but are paid around two-thirds of their salary by the state.

----------------------------

US Consumers Empty Shelves Amid Concerns Over Covid-19 Meat Shortages
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/01/us-meat-shortages-coronavirus-production-trump-order

Agriculture department reported beef production down nearly 25% compared to last year, and pork production down 15%

US meat production has continued to decline as the coronavirus crisis forces the shutdown of more processing facilities, sparking fears of shortages at grocery stores nationwide.

While Sonny Perdue, the agriculture secretary, has said the US has “plenty of food for all of [its] citizens”, fewer pigs are being slaughtered at processing plants, down by nearly 50% since mid-March.

... “I wouldn’t say the food system is breaking, but at least the meat sector is in real serious, critical condition at the moment,” said Jayson Lusk, the head of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, told USA Today.

Fears of meat shortages have had shoppers looking for alternatives to retail grocers. Restaurants and food service vendors have reported shortages as processors shift to selling directly to consumers.

------------------------------------

US Trucking Squeezed by Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/recession-proof-trucking-squeezed-coronavirus-200425222819166.html

Lockdowns to stem the spread of COVID-19 are reducing loads for truckers as well as the rates they are paid.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2020, 03:18:57 AM by vox_mundi »
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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #533 on: May 03, 2020, 12:30:40 AM »


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #534 on: May 03, 2020, 05:13:49 PM »
Fiercest Economic Collapse in History is Best Month for Stock Market
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/fiercest-economic-collapse-in-history-is-best-month-for-stock-market/
Quote
After years of climbing, there’s a sudden crash of 20% or more followed by a rally about halfway back to the last record high, and then reality kicks back in with the worst yet to come.

Here, for example, is the infamous crash of 1929 and the stock market that followed during the ensuing Great Depression:


Quote
Although the stock market just experienced its best month in decades, the rally in 1929 was the best in decades, too.
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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #535 on: May 03, 2020, 06:34:15 PM »
6 Reasons Why This Is (Or Isn't) The Worst Economy Since The Great Depression
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/6-reasons-why-or-isnt-worst-economy-great-depression
Quote
Why this is the worst economy since the Great Depression
I have six reasons.

Reason #1: This is a “double-recession.”
Reason #2: Pandemic-related business costs could last for years.
Reason #3: The Fed only had two bullets in the interest-rate chamber (the two March rate cuts).
Reason #4: Bankruptcies could be more severe than in any other post-WW2 recession.
Reason #5: Meet the zombies—next generation.
Reason #6: Inflation risks are unusually high for a recession.

Why this isn’t the worst economy since the Great Depression
Reason #1: The big-4 “home” risks—home prices, home mortgage debt, home building and home equity extraction—are relatively nonthreatening.
Reason #2: Sterilization? What’s that?
Reason #3: Banks have more capital than they did in 2008.
Reason #4: Some areas of the economy are seeing stellar demand.
Reason #5: Furloughs, not layoffs.
Reason #6: Helicopter money!
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #536 on: May 04, 2020, 11:09:39 AM »
Three Reasons Why The Eurozone Recovery Will Be Poor
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/three-reasons-why-the-eurozone-recovery-will-be-poor/
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The eurozone was already in a severe slowdown in 2019.
The banking sector is still weak.
Most of the recovery plans go to government current spending, and tax increases will surely impact growth and jobs.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

be cause

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #537 on: May 04, 2020, 01:00:38 PM »
  ^^ a glance at European shares .. down @ 3% this am , while UK's down 0.3% .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #538 on: May 04, 2020, 01:31:44 PM »
Don't Expect a Return to Normal This Year
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/dont-expect-a-return-to-normal-this-year
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Those struggling to make rent or payments will have had the scare of their lives. Attitudes about the need to save will change. More savings means less spending and lower profits for businesses.
Car buying, travel, dining out, etc. will not return to normal this year or next after this kind of economic hit. The wealth impact alone will take years if ever, given boomer retirement needs.
On the corporate side, kiss goodbye just-in-time production strategies with dependencies on China and no inventories. This will lower corporate earnings.
To reduce expenses, frequent business travel will give way to more teleconferencing. This mean lower hotel bills  and less air travel.
More people will work at home permanently. This will lower gasoline usage and dining out.
Even boomers who did not do much online shopping had to learn new tricks. Many will now be hooked on the convenience of Amazon and will not go back to their old ways. This is another kick in the teeth to struggling malls.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #539 on: May 04, 2020, 01:40:12 PM »
Investing Legend Sees A Second Great Depression For Stocks By 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investing-legend-sees-second-great-depression-stocks-2023
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If history is a guide, stocks have further to go before they hit bottom. That’s Sokoloff’s view, anyway. Then as now, he says, “central bankers were pushing on a string”, trying in vain to whip up a real economic recovery with monetary policy.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #540 on: May 04, 2020, 03:41:08 PM »
J. Crew files for bankruptcy as preppy retailer succumbs to COVID-19 fallout
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J. Crew is the first high-profile retailer to seek bankruptcy protection since the coronavirus spread across the globe, prompting government officials to order businesses deemed nonessential to temporarily close.

It is likely not the last. Department store chains Neiman Marcus Group and J.C. Penney Co Inc are contemplating bankruptcy filings amid the crisis, Reuters previously reported.

Before the pandemic, J. Crew was already struggling along with other traditional brick-and-mortar retailers to compete amid a consumer shift to online shopping.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j-crew-group-bankruptcy-idUSKBN22G0O4


Tyson faces safety costs, sales hit from coronavirus
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(Reuters) - Tyson Foods Inc said on Monday it would temporarily close plants as needed in the battle with the coronavirus outbreak and expects meat sales to fall in the second half of this year as shutdowns hammer restaurants and other food outlets.

Tyson said demand from retailers for its beef, pork and poultry products had jumped in recent weeks but was not enough to offset the loss in sales to restaurants and caterers hit by strict lockdown measure to control the spread of the virus.

The company has been among those at the heart of a row over employee safety, after President Trump ordered processing plants to stay open to protect U.S. food supplies, drawing a backlash from unions that said at-risk workers need more protection.

Tyson, Smithfield Foods Inc and JBS USA have all had to shutter plants in recent weeks as the respiratory illness spread widely through the meat-processing facilities.

“We are experiencing multiple challenges related to the pandemic. These challenges are anticipated to increase our operating costs and negatively impact our volumes for the remainder of fiscal 2020.”

“Operationally, we have and expect to continue to face slowdowns and temporary idling of production facilities from team member shortages or choices we make to ensure operational safety,” the company said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tyson-foods-results-idUSKBN22G1DI

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Business interruption insurance.  Will claimants need to have suffered physical damage? 
How the insurance industry may change as a result of the coronavirus crisis
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/05/04/coronavirus-pandemic-insurance-industry-squawk-box.html
5 min CNBC discussion video.

—-
“It started as just a temporary downswing but it’s the downswing that never really stopped,” said oilfield services worker Nils MacArthur. He is thinking of leaving the industry after more than 20 years in oil.
“I don’t really have control over this anymore,” he said. “If this is an act of God, maybe I need to find another career because I guess God’s had enough of the oilfield.”


A look inside smaller oil boardrooms, in case you haven’t been following the Oil and Gas thread.
'Like watching a train wreck': The coronavirus effect on North Dakota shale oilfields
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-shale-north-dakota-insight-idUSKBN22G1C2
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #541 on: May 04, 2020, 07:17:51 PM »
The cafeteria — and other parts of office life — will change dramatically after coronavirus
Pre-packaged food from touchless vending machines.  Bringing insulated lunch boxes and insulated mugs to work instead of using the office refrigerator.
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There will definitely not be doughnuts at the next in-office meeting. But the real question is whether there will be any people at the next in-office meeting. New tech-enabled employees will increasingly choose asynchronous collaboration, which enables them to work together but not be together. And when they do meet, gatherings by video will be commonplace.
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After COVID-19, employees will be empowered to WFH, so they do not have to use a sick day, the second-most-reported reason for showing up to work sick. Bosses and teammates will be ever more empowered to send a sick person home to work. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cafeteria-and-other-parts-of-office-life-will-change-dramatically-after-coronavirus-2020-05-04
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #542 on: May 04, 2020, 07:48:24 PM »
Britain says more than a fifth of workers furloughed as of Sunday
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LONDON (Reuters) - More than a fifth of employees in Britain have been furloughed, with 8 billion pounds ($9.9 billion) claimed from the government to sustain their wages during the coronavirus lockdown, tax authorities said on Monday.

HM Revenue and Customs said on Twitter that 6.3 million workers from 800,000 employers had been furloughed, citing figures up to midnight (2300 GMT) on Sunday.

That accounts for 23% of Britain’s 27.9 million employees, according to the most recent labour market data.
Under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, which is central to efforts to slow a rise in unemployment, the state pays 80% of workers’ pay up to 2,500 pounds a month.

The scheme is due to run until the end of June and is likely to cost the public finances around 39 billion pounds, based on an assumption that 30% of employees are enrolled, Britain’s official budget forecasters have said.

The figures came as pensions minister Therese Coffey said the government received 1.8 million claims for welfare payments between March 16 and the end of April via its ‘Universal Credit’ benefits system.
Universal Credit benefits are paid to people in work as well as those who have lost their jobs.
Coffey said that overall, the volume of welfare claims had been six times bigger than pre-coronavirus during that period, and that in one particular week the increase had been tenfold.


Last week an official survey showed two thirds of British firms had asked for public money to pay staff they have temporarily laid off, pointing to a strong take-up for a key part of the government’s plan to soften the economic impact of the coronavirus. ... 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-furlough/britain-says-more-than-a-fifth-of-workers-furloughed-as-of-sunday-idUSKBN22G22D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #543 on: May 04, 2020, 08:10:54 PM »
To save the economy, the Federal Reserve should drop interest rates to less than zero
Published: May 4, 2020 at 1:22 p.m. ET
Project Syndicate By Kenneth Rogoff
Quote
Negative rates would shield many companies, states and cities from default
For those who viewed negative interest rates as a bridge too far for central banks, it might be time to think again.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve — supported both implicitly and explicitly by the Treasury — is on track to backstop virtually every private, state and city credit in the economy. Many other governments have felt compelled to take similar steps. A once-in-a-century (we hope) crisis calls for massive government intervention, but does that have to mean dispensing with market-based allocation mechanisms?

Until inflation and real interest rates rise from the grave, only a policy of deep negative interest rates can do the job.
Blanket debt guarantees are a great device if one believes that recent market stress was just a short-term liquidity crunch, soon to be alleviated by a strong sustained post-COVID-19 recovery. But what if the rapid recovery fails to materialize? What if, as one suspects, it takes years for the U.S. and global economy to claw back to 2019 levels? If so, there is little hope that all businesses will remain viable, or that every state and local government will remain solvent.

A better bet is that nothing will be the same. Wealth will be destroyed on a catastrophic scale, and policymakers will need to find a way to ensure that, at least in some cases, creditors take part of the hit, a process that will play out over years of negotiation and litigation. For bankruptcy lawyers and lobbyists, it will be a bonanza, part of which will come from pressing taxpayers to honor bailout guarantees. Such a scenario would be an unholy mess.

Below zero
...
A number of important steps are required to make deep negative rates feasible and effective. The most important, which no central bank (including the European Central Bank) has yet taken, is to preclude large-scale hoarding of cash by financial firms, pension funds, and insurance companies. Various combinations of regulation, a time-varying fee for large-scale re-deposits of cash at the central bank, and phasing out large-denomination banknotes should do the trick.

It is not rocket science (or should I say virology?). With large-scale cash hoarding taken off the table, the issue of pass-through of negative rates to bank depositors — the most sensible concern — would be eliminated. Even without preventing wholesale hoarding (which is risky and expensive), European banks have increasingly been able to pass on negative rates to large depositors. And governments would not be giving up much by shielding small depositors entirely from negative interest rates. Again, given adequate time and planning, doing this is straightforward. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/to-save-the-economy-the-federal-reserve-should-drop-interest-rates-to-less-than-zero-2020-05-04
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #544 on: May 04, 2020, 08:34:55 PM »
UK:  People are so scared that neighbors will spread the virus that more than 200,000 have called the police to report rule breaking by their fellow citizens
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A campaign to keep Britons locked down and protected from the coronavirus may have proved too successful, according to new research, with many now scared to leave their homes.

A leading Cambridge University statistician warned that the government’s stay-at-home message had caused many people to grow “particularly anxious” about going out.

“Many people are definitely overanxious about their chance of both getting the virus and the harm they might come to if they do get it,” Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter told the BBC.
...
Keiran Pedley, research director at Ipsos Mori, said: “Clear majorities of Britons are nervous about using public transport again or going to bars, restaurants or live music and sporting events.

“These numbers suggest that it will take some time for parts of the British economy to return to any semblance of normality, even after lockdown has ended.”
...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-day-after-elon-musk-denounced-coronavirus-lockdowns-as-infringements-of-freedom-research-shows-britons-are-too-scared-to-leave-their-homes-anyway-2020-05-01
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #545 on: May 04, 2020, 10:10:14 PM »
Just a little reminder:
The last time we had a global Depression the way it was ended was to have an all out global war.
Think about it.
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Rodius

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #546 on: May 05, 2020, 04:18:21 AM »
Just a little reminder:
The last time we had a global Depression the way it was ended was to have an all out global war.
Think about it.

Not really.
The Depression set up the scene for evil politicians to exploit the masses to their own end... things like nationalism, protecting the wealthy and charisma based politics.

The war after the depression was not caused by the economy..... it was caused by evil minded people who used the situation to their on ends.

oren

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #547 on: May 05, 2020, 07:57:28 AM »
The stage in Germany was set long before the Great Depression. The hyperinflation which gutted german society was over by 1923-4.

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #548 on: May 05, 2020, 08:26:11 AM »
WWII ended the Great Depression in the US. But that's not the cause of the war because it started years before the US involvement.

The main reason for the Second World War is the First World War and it's peace treaty.

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Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« Reply #549 on: May 05, 2020, 11:22:29 AM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin