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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #700 on: June 27, 2020, 03:42:28 PM »
2020 Economic Predictions: This Series of Unfortunate Events Guarantees the Epocalypse
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/2020-economic-predictions-guarantee-epocalypse/
Quote
The troubles listed here in my 2020 economic predictions are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Just a few of these misfortunes would be enough to plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.
Quote
That’s a long list of finger-in-the-wind economic predictions. I’m not saying all of them will be dominant trends this year, and I can’t say when or in what order each one will happen; but I am certain 80% or more of my 2020 economic predictions will play out as stated above, and that is more than enough to assure the deep economic depression I’ve named “The Epocalyse.”

I invite you to offer your own social or economic predictions for 2020 (whether as additions or subtractions to the list above) that you see as highly likely to develop (good or bad) in the comments below so that we benefit from each others’ observations and insights.

You can comment on his site. And let's come back in six months and see if he was right.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

oren

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #701 on: June 27, 2020, 04:01:39 PM »
The lesson here is, the Fed will always bail out the stock market because they (still wrongly) think this is what represents the economy.
So very true.

GoodeWeather

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #702 on: June 27, 2020, 04:12:47 PM »
As at 26 June 2020,

- The NASDAQ Composite Index is 22% higher than a year ago,

- The S & P 500 Index is 2.3% higher than a year ago,

- The DJ 30 index is still 6% lower than a year ago.

The 30 stocks which make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average are:
3M, American Express, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cisco, Coca-Cola, Disney, Dow, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, McDonald’s, Merck, Microsoft, Nike, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Raytheon Technologies, Unitedhealth, Verizon, Visa, Walgreens, and Walmart.

I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.

I decided to go short on the market Thursday after seeing the scenes at bounemouth beach.  The market is insanely overvalued for the state we are in.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #703 on: June 28, 2020, 11:50:53 PM »
Without Students, College Towns Face a Stark Loss In Population, Jobs and Revenue
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/us/coronavirus-college-towns.html

... For the cities involved, the prognosis is daunting. In most college towns, university students, faculty and staff are a primary market. Local economies depend on their numbers and dollars, from sales taxes to football weekends to federal funds determined by the U.S. census.

Where business as usual has been tried recently, punishment has followed: Last week, the Iowa health authorities reported case spikes among young adults in its two largest college towns after bars reopened. And on campuses across the United States, attempts to bring back football teams for preseason practice have resulted in outbreaks.

-------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #704 on: June 28, 2020, 11:55:01 PM »
(USA) household pulse weekly survey:

"almost one-third of all households expect to experience a loss of employment income over the coming four weeks. Fully 10 percent of American families—that’s 25 million, half of which have children at home—did not have enough food to eat in the prior week. Even more disturbing, one in five households—over 50 million in total—are doubtful that they will be able to afford sufficient food in the coming month. And of the nation’s 65,000,0000 renters, almost 20 percent were unable to pay their rent last month and an even higher percentage—close to 30 percent—doubt that they will be able to pay their rent in the coming month."

https://www.census.gov/householdpulsedata
https://prospect.org/coronavirus/true-financial-pulse-of-americas-families/

sidd


nanning

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #705 on: June 29, 2020, 03:13:41 AM »
Thank you for that information sidd.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #706 on: June 29, 2020, 07:23:06 AM »
US Is Expecting an 'Avalanche' of Evictions
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53088352

... The federal CARES Act, which passed in early April, froze evictions for renters living in federally subsidised housing or in property backed by government loans.

Surveys estimated that in the month of May, nearly a third of renters failed to pay their landlords on time, and over half had lost jobs due to the crisis.

But as the country begins opening up again, moratoriums are ending and 40% of states no longer offer renters any protection. The CARES Act protections only apply to less than one-third of the country's 108 million renters. Missouri is one of nine states in the US that never issued any type of statewide moratorium or stay on eviction proceedings, leaving it up to cities, counties and even individual courthouses to determine how to move forward. As temporary protections are falling away, like a patchwork quilt slowly fraying, hundreds of evictions are already under way in states like Missouri, Virginia and Texas.

According to newly released data from Princeton University's Eviction Lab, one of the first places in the country to post worrisome eviction numbers is Milwaukee, Wisconsin - up 37% on last year. In Columbus, Ohio, eviction hearings are taking place in a convention centre in order to accommodate the number of cases and adhere to social distancing guidelines.

In North Carolina, a 9,000-case backlog is set to resume on 21 June.

Michigan's State Court Administrative Office estimated when its moratorium comes to an end this month, 75,000 evictions will be filed.

In New York City alone, a coalition of advocates estimated that 50,000 evictions will be filed once Governor Andrew Cuomo's statewide moratorium ends.

A study of eviction court outcomes in Kansas City from 2006-2016 showed that over 99% eviction cases went against the tenant.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59ba0bd359cc68f015b7ff8a/t/5a68e811e4966bee3fb5d6cd/1516824594549/KC+Eviction+Project+-+Courts+Analysis.pdf

As evictions, both legal and illegal, ramp up in the United States they are likely to disproportionately impact a population that has already been devastated by the coronavirus - African Americans.

Before the pandemic, research showed that of the 2.3 million evictions that take place each year (about four per minute), they disproportionately impacted black families, particularly low-income, black women. In 17 states, black women are twice as likely to be evicted as white renters, according to statistics from the American Civil Liberties Union.

... Eviction Lab's previous research found that evictions were most prevalent in cities in the southeast region of the country, and in places where the population was 30% African American or higher.

Jay Martin, executive director of Community Housing Improvement Program, which represents most small, independent landlords in New York City, said his organisation fears that as more people are unable to make rent, building owners will not be able to pay their property taxes, utility bills and mortgages, eventually leading to foreclosures and bank takeovers of multi-family housing units. The worst case scenario could look something like the foreclosure crisis of 2008, with massive impact on rental property owners rather than individual homeowners, and potential cascading effects on tenants.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #707 on: June 30, 2020, 08:03:01 AM »
This eviction wave is bad. To their credit, Fannie and Freddie explicitly put in the clause on their 1-4 unit for rent home mortgages that if the landlords used their payment moratorium they had to extend non eviction to tenants.  But most mortgages on rental properties are non Fannie/Freddie. Lots sold into REIT, private equity and such.

I know one guy, lets call him Bud, running 250 odd rental properties, and has already seen a quarter of his tenants 30+ days out on their rent, going higher in a couple days, he expects many more to not make rent on july 1. Bud is running late on his multiple mortgages himself.  He will have to file for bankruptcy very shortly, he sees the picture, aint no new tenants to be had. He's trying to cut deals with his tenants, filing a blizzard of evictions but he is under no illusions.

Its gonna go up the pipeline. Some landlords pushing eviction are gambling that they can get new tenants, they are wrong. We have 30 million on state or fed assistance right now. Landlords wont pay their mortgages. The mortgage servicers will foreclose the properties under those mortgages. The lower tranche holders of the securities the mortgages got packed into will lose. Mmmm, that might be pension and retirement funds ... CALPERS comes to mind.

Private equity will, in fact, is, buying then at firesale prices as i type. Looks like a bunch more of the USA is gonna turn into company towns with private equity slumlords screwing welfare benefits outta impoverished populace.

Or wait, on the other hand, the impoverished populace is one of the most well armed in the world. And the addresses of their lords only an internet search away.

Interesting times.

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #708 on: June 30, 2020, 11:25:47 AM »
Sounds like a classic redistribution of wealth during bust times. The poor lose everything while the rich get richer.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #709 on: June 30, 2020, 11:56:37 AM »
Nearly Half the U.S. Population Is Without a Job, Showing How Far the Labor Recovery Has to Go
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/29/nearly-half-the-us-population-is-without-a-job-showing-how-far-the-labor-recovery-has-to-go.html

The employment-population ratio — the number of employed people as a percentage of the U.S. adult population — plunged to 52.8% in May, meaning 47.2% of Americans are jobless.

As the coronavirus-induced shutdown tore through the labor market, the share of population employed dropped sharply from a recent high of 61.2% in January, farther away from a post-war record of 64.7% in 2000. The unemployment rate doesn't capture those who stopped looking for a job.

"To get the employment-to-population ratio back to where it was at its peak in 2000 we need to create 30 million jobs," said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank's chief economist.



After the unexpected snapback in May, there have been signs of a slowdown in the labor-market improvement as fears of a coronavirus resurgence deepened in recent weeks. The number of Americans filing for unemployment claims came in higher than expected for the past two weeks straight.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #710 on: June 30, 2020, 05:01:20 PM »
U.S. COVID resurgence leads to back-tracking on reopening plans

Arizona orders bars and gyms to close, joining other states in reversing reopening
Move comes on the heels of state reporting nearly 4,000 new Covid-19 cases Sunday, its largest one-day caseload so far
Tue 30 Jun 2020 08.22 EDT
Quote
The governor of Arizona has ordered bars, movie theaters, gyms and water parks to shut down, in a dramatic move that echoed similar efforts by states around the country to roll back plans for reopening.

The order from the Republican governor, Doug Ducey, came on Monday and went into effect immediately, and will last for at least 30 days. Ducey also also ordered public schools to delay the start of the classes at least until 17 August.

“Our expectation is that our numbers next week will be worse,” he said.

Arizona health officials reported 3,858 more confirmed coronavirus cases Sunday, the most reported in a single day in the state so far and the seventh time in the last 10 days that daily cases surpassed the 3,000 mark. Since the pandemic began, 74,500 cases and 1,588 deaths stemming from the virus have been reported in Arizona.

Most Arizona bars and nightclubs opened after Ducey’s stay-at-home and business closure orders were allowed to expire in mid-May.

The state is not alone in its reversal. Places such as Texas, Florida and California are backtracking, closing beaches and bars in some cases amid a resurgence of the virus. Oregon and Kansas, meanwhile, announced Monday that everyone would be required to wear masks in public.

In California over the weekend, the governor, Gavin Newsom, ordered bars and nightclubs in nine counties to close, including Los Angeles, which has nearly 100,000 cases – the most of any region of the state.

The state is in the midst of trying to “toggle back” plans to reopen as case numbers and hospitalizations flare up in sections of the state. Red flags have been raised on a number of metrics, including “disturbing trendlines” in positivity rates, hospitalizations and ICU admissions. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/29/arizona-covid-19-shutdown-rollback-bars-gyms
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #711 on: June 30, 2020, 06:40:20 PM »
Fauci has harsh words for the American public AND lawmakers as COVID-19 surges in Florida, California and Texas
Fauci said many states have reopened too quickly, and people are not abiding by rules of social distancing.
Quote
“What has happened, I guess understandably, but nonetheless regrettably, is that people took the attitude in some places of either ‘all or none,’” Fauci said earlier on CNN. “Either you’re locked down, or you just let it fly, and you just ignore many of the guidelines of physical distancing, of wearing a mask ... not wearing a mask, avoiding crowds.”

“We do need to open up again, no doubt about it, we want to get the economy back, but you’ve got to do it in a measured way, and now we’re seeing the consequence of community spread, which is even more difficult to contain than spread in a well-known physical location like a prison or a nursing home or a meat-packing place.

He added, “When you have community spread, it’s insidious, because there are so many people in the community who are infected, but asymptomatic. It makes it extremely problematic to do efficient contact tracing, because most of the people who are infected don’t even know they’re infected. So how do you do contact tracing when someone doesn’t have any symptoms?”

Fauci said the U.S. government has not been doing well with contact tracing, the process of tracing people who have been in contact with someone who has the virus, and instructing them to stay home for 14 days. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-has-harsh-words-for-the-american-public-and-lawmakers-as-covid-19-surges-in-florida-california-and-texas-2020-06-30
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #712 on: June 30, 2020, 09:30:37 PM »
11% of workers "out of work with zero chance of getting called back"

"32.5 million workers who are officially unemployed or are otherwise out of work as a result of the virus"

https://www.epi.org/blog/nearly-11-of-the-workforce-is-out-of-work-with-zero-chance-of-getting-called-back-to-a-prior-job/

sidd


Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #713 on: July 01, 2020, 12:04:39 AM »
Broadway will remain dark until 2021; Cirque du Soleil files for bankruptcy
June 29, 2020
Quote
Cirque du Soleil, best known for its mesmerizing shows that fuse acrobatics with performance art, filed for bankruptcy Monday as the coronavirus continues to ravage the entertainment and theater industries.

"For the past 36 years, Cirque du Soleil has been a highly successful and profitable organization," Daniel Lamarre, president and CEO of Cirque du Soleil Entertainment Group, said in a news release. "However, with zero revenues since the forced closure of all of our shows due to COVID-19, management had to act decisively to protect the Company's future."

Like live production companies across the country, Cirque du Soleil's revenue flow ground to a halt as states issued stay-at-home orders to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The company suspended many of its worldwide shows in March before announcing the temporary suspension of its resident shows in Las Vegas.


Cirque du Soleil's bankruptcy announcement comes on the heels of New York City's Broadway shutting down through January 3, 2021 as hope fades for a rapid end to the spread of the virus.

The loss of economic activity with Broadway productions closed could be devastating for New York City. Broadway contributes $14.7 billion on top of ticket sales and supports 96,900 local jobs, according to 2019 statistics from The Broadway League.

Both Las Vegas and New York City's entertainment economies depend on travel. Roughly 16 million people traveled through Las Vegas McCarran International Airport between January and April of last year, according to airport statistics. Only about 10 million people have traveled through the airport during the same period this year. Airport international and domestic traffic in New York was down by about 40 percent in April, according to the most recent statistics. ...
  https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/broadway-will-remain-dark-until-2021-cirque-du-soleil-files-n1232418
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #714 on: July 01, 2020, 01:04:20 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jun/30/coronavirus-live-updates-news-who-team-to-search-for-covid-19-origin-in-china-as-chief-says-he-fears-worst-to-come

Costa Rican coffee beans may go unharvested this year because of a coronavirus induced labour shortage, farmers have warned.


Fears have grown that the raw material may not be picked because of a lack of workers, mainly from Nicaragua and Panama.

Farmers have blamed travel restrictions imposed by the government to curb the spread of coronavirus, which prevent people from both countries entering Costa Rica.

Migrant workers typically make up about two-thirds of the country’s coffee crop workforce
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #715 on: July 01, 2020, 08:13:18 PM »
U.S.:
Bloomberg on Twitter: "BREAKING: Unemployment payments surpass $100 billion in June, the most for a single month since the pandemic started https://t.co/7GvH98oUgz "
https://twitter.com/business/status/1278070857252904960
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #716 on: July 02, 2020, 09:59:04 PM »
CO2 Emissions May Have Peaked, But That's Not Enough
https://www.axios.com/co2-emissions-peaked-climate-change-paris-deal-8a447d76-5678-4b4b-84fc-4dcabfd6b24a.html



More analysts are making the case that COVID-19 could be an inflection point for oil use and carbon emissions, but it's hardly one that puts the world on a sustainable ecological path.

Driving the news: The risk advisory firm DNV GL, citing the pandemic's long-term effects on energy consumption, projects in a new analysis that global CO2 emissions "most likely" peaked in 2019.

- And, per Reuters, the firm also argues that the pandemic has accelerated the global oil demand peak by several years, which they now believe also occurred in 2019.

- Separately, Bloomberg reports on a new Citigroup group analysis which finds: "Oil product demand growth will falter significantly, change its contours and never return to pre-COVID-19 rates of growth."

Why it matters: These new reports are the latest to take stock of the pandemic's unprecedented shock to the energy system and the lasting effects.

But it's also a reminder that the demand reduction and carbon emissions decline that's happening for tragic reasons is not even close to enough to hold warming significantly in check.

Threat level: "Even with peak emissions behind us, and flat energy demand through to 2050, the energy transition we forecast is still nowhere near fast enough to deliver the Paris ambition of keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels," the DNV GL analysis states.

"To reach 1.5-degree target, we would need to repeat the decline we’re experiencing in 2020 every year from now on."

The bottom line: "t's always important to emphasize that peaking emissions does not stop the world from continuing to warm," Hausfather, who is affiliated with the Breakthrough Institute and the research group Berkeley Earth, tells me via email.

"CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, so to stop warming we need to get emissions down to net-zero. Peaking is just the first (and easiest) step on the long road to zero emissions," he said.

... and then there's deforestation and positive feedback loops.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #717 on: July 04, 2020, 01:16:28 AM »
Employment May Never Fully Recover In Some Industries
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/a-breakdown-of-where-the-jobs-are-coming-back-and-where-they-may-never-full-return.html



------------------------------------

Cash-Strapped Bar Owners Reckon With Closing Their Doors a Second Time
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Six states are closing thousands of bars again ahead of the Fourth of July weekend. But bar owners aren’t happy with the rollbacks.

The stop and start costs thousands of dollars for every business,” said David Kaplan, co-owner of Death & Co, a cocktail lounge with locations in Los Angeles, Denver and New York.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2020, 03:24:18 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #718 on: July 07, 2020, 04:12:08 PM »
Talk of a Democratic sweep is now common among investors.

Wall Street is no longer betting on Trump
Quote
Betting markets have turned decisively toward an expected victory for Joe Biden in November — and asset managers at major investment banks are preparing for not only a Biden win, but potentially a Democratic sweep of the Senate and House too.

Why it matters: Wall Street had its chips on a Trump win until recently — even in the midst of the coronavirus-induced recession and Biden's rise in the polls.
   •   The shift is the latest indicator of how quickly the political and business worlds have aligned in the view that Trump is unlikely to win a second term as COVID-19 infection numbers have spiked again and the economy looks to be stalling. 
...
The big picture: It's not just a reversal from Trump. If implemented, Biden's proposed tax hikes on individuals, corporations and financial market gains would be the most significant since Bill Clinton. ...
https://www.axios.com/wall-street-betting-biden-trump-3f92627c-812f-42a3-a79c-2192787170f9.html
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harpy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #719 on: July 07, 2020, 06:53:21 PM »
BAU never resumed from the virus, the supply chains continue to fragment in the US.

Yet almost eerily, the populace has taken the goverment's message to heart:  we're back.

Except we're not. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #720 on: July 07, 2020, 07:10:42 PM »
BAU never resumed from the virus, the supply chains continue to fragment in the US.

Yet almost eerily, the populace has taken the goverment's message to heart:  we're back.

Except we're not. 

Everyone is looking for an easy way out — but there isn’t one.


——-
Surging U.S. coronavirus cases and forecasts for a deeper-than-feared recession in the euro zone dimmed optimism around a post-pandemic rebound.

European stocks slip as hopes of post-pandemic rebound fade - Reuters
July 7
Quote
As the economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis continue to be felt, the European Commission said the 19 nation single currency area would contract by a record 8.7% before rising by 6.1% in 2021, worse than its previous forecast.

Several U.S. states posted record daily coronavirus case counts, prompting many to reverse reopening plans as the U.S. death toll topped 130,000.

“Renewed coronavirus outbreaks in some parts of the world... supports our cautious stance and adds to downside risks for the advanced economies in particular,” said Jennifer McKeown, head of the global economics service at Capital Economics.

“Even if the authorities continue to shun draconian restrictions, people may choose to avoid many types of economic activity.” ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-stocks-slip-as-hopes-of-post-pandemic-rebound-fade-idUSKBN24814H
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #721 on: July 07, 2020, 10:22:44 PM »
Economists Think Congress Could Create An Economic Disaster This Summer
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/economists-think-congress-could-create-an-economic-disaster-this-summer/
Quote
“There’s a distinct risk that between now and November, Congress’s ability to continue fiscal support will be very limited by election-year politics,” said Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University who has been consulting with us on the design of the survey. “That could be more of a drag on the economy than the local and state shutdowns just because the effect would be so huge.”
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #722 on: July 07, 2020, 10:27:20 PM »
The Looming Bank Collapse
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/
Quote
After months of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there’s another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed.
You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #723 on: July 08, 2020, 03:40:37 PM »
This ain't your greatgrandpappy's Depression:

What Will Be the Most Desirable Status Symbols in the Greater Depression?
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly20/status-symbols7-20.html
Quote
In the Great Depression, fantasy films about debonair, witty millionaires were viewed as escapist fare. (For example, The Thin Man who-dunnits). In the far more brittle and polarized Greater Depression we're entering, extremes of wealth and privilege will be more likely to spark outrage.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #724 on: July 08, 2020, 03:43:56 PM »
Summer 2020 Economic Forecast: An even deeper recession with wider divergences
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1269
Quote
The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels. Because the lifting of lockdown measures is proceeding at a more gradual pace than assumed in our Spring Forecast, the impact on economic activity in 2020 will be more significant than anticipated.

The Summer 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 8.7% in 2020 and grow by 6.1% in 2021. The EU economy is forecast to contract by 8.3% in 2020 and grow by 5.8% in 2021. The contraction in 2020 is, therefore, projected to be significantly greater than the 7.7% projected for the euro area and 7.4% for the EU as a whole in the Spring Forecast. Growth in 2021 will also be slightly less robust than projected in the spring.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #725 on: July 08, 2020, 08:09:10 PM »
Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.
Atlanta Mayor:  “We’ll never be able to reopen our schools and our economy if we don’t take some responsibility for what we can do as leaders.”
Atlanta to mandate face masks to contain coronavirus
Quote
The requirements could come into conflict with a statewide order from [Governor] Kemp that “strongly encourages” – but does not mandate – the use of masks and bans local governments from enacting stricter or more lenient measure to fight the disease.

Supporters of the restrictions say they’re unfazed by what could be a thorny legal challenge. They point to pleas from public health experts, the growing number of states with similar requirements and the surging number of coronavirus cases in Georgia, which passed the 100,000 mark on Tuesday. ...
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/atlanta-mandate-face-masks-contain-coronavirus/q5UhAVJtgnTUfXsYOOQv6J/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #726 on: July 08, 2020, 08:22:06 PM »
Trump Threatens to Cut Funding for Schools, Slams CDC Reopening Guidelines as Too Tough and Expensive
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/08/coronavirus-trump-threatens-to-cut-school-funding-slams-cdc-reopening-guidelines.html

Trump tweets that he may withhold federal funding from schools that do not resume in-person classes this fall.

Moments later Trump says his own CDC's guidelines for safely reopening schools are too expensive and too impractical.

The tweets are part of a pressure campaign the White House is mounting to get schools nationwide to reopen in person this fall, despite record levels of coronavirus infections in several states.



More sociopathic BS from TRump to drown out the book by his niece that records what a sociopath he is.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #727 on: July 09, 2020, 01:20:48 PM »
Depression and the Great American Exodus
https://dailyreckoning.com/depression-and-the-great-american-exodus/
Quote
Defining Depression
The best definition ever offered came from John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 classic The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

Keynes said a depression is “a chronic condition of subnormal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency either towards recovery or towards complete collapse.”

Keynes did not refer to declining GDP; he talked about “subnormal” activity.

In other words, it’s entirely possible to have growth in a depression. The problem is that the growth is below trend. It is weak growth that does not do the job of providing enough jobs or staying ahead of the national debt.
Surely the contraction we are experiencing would have been called a "Depression" in the days before the Great Depression made the D-word politically incorrect.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #728 on: July 09, 2020, 04:48:41 PM »
I found this definition of a depression:

"What Is a Depression?
A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10%. in a given year. Depressions are relatively less frequent than milder recessions, and tend to be accompanied by high unemployment and low inflation."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

Our current situation is about four months. 

kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #729 on: July 09, 2020, 05:09:47 PM »
But those are abstract measures.
The stock market still seems to bounce up but that does not really translate to what is going on on the ground.

So many people are getting into trouble and this will cascade. All the jobs in bars, restaurants, cleaning the places are reduced. And then you can think of many other examples.

Short version: wouldn´t worry about definition of depression just yet.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #730 on: July 09, 2020, 05:47:18 PM »
Abstract?  A prolonged downturn in economic activity is hardly abstract.  A recession lasting three or more years is not abstract either.  No matter how you cut it, we are far from a depression - at least economically.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #731 on: July 09, 2020, 06:15:08 PM »
One thing to follow in all this mess is the amount of failed states we are going to get in the world. Lebanon has effectively fallen apart during Covid-19. Of course, we are going to get more and more failed states with every passing year, so I wonder if there will be a comprehensive list to keep up with all of that.

What concerns stock market, then one can't really take it seriously. They are pretty much printing money to boost it. Stock market would have to be literally under water to collapse, it has nothing to do with real-world realities. Shame though that the elite has managed to build such a bubble around themselves that nothing outside of it matters. But of course, one day the rich will have to pay their price too, even if again it doesn't get reflected in the stock market, which is just hyperinflated numbers to boost their egos and nothing else.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #732 on: July 09, 2020, 07:25:06 PM »
Walrus, if you think we will be back to a 2019 economy by 2022 I have a fitness center here in Twinsburg to sell you real cheap.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #733 on: July 09, 2020, 07:49:19 PM »
Walrus, if you think we will be back to a 2019 economy by 2022 I have a fitness center here in Twinsburg to sell you real cheap.

That would probably be a very wise investment at the moment.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #734 on: July 09, 2020, 08:05:25 PM »
Worldwide Depression is around the corner and will be at least on par with 1930's and will get gradually worse. And this would be the Last Depression before economy collapses somewhere later on (when, who knows. A decade?). So that energy usage peaked in 2019 would probably be correct. The thing is that even if Covid-19 retreats or a vaccine is found, we are bound to hit greater and greater problems with each passing year due to ecological crisis. No economy can handle that. So if anything seems bad right now, it's still pretty good compared to what is to come. So "Covid-19 consequences" will be muddled up with other things happening, speeding the whole process up.

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #735 on: July 09, 2020, 09:14:57 PM »
jens, I respectfully disagree.  The underlying fundamentals for the previous depression and past recessions were much worse than before covid.  Hence, the likelihood of a second depression seem rather remote.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #736 on: July 09, 2020, 10:10:18 PM »
Newscasters feature a teacher’s response about dealing with the pandemic.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #737 on: July 10, 2020, 08:23:25 AM »
jens, I respectfully disagree.  The underlying fundamentals for the previous depression and past recessions were much worse than before covid.  Hence, the likelihood of a second depression seem rather remote.

The previous depressions and recessions didn't have one underlying fundamental that the 2020's have - climate change. In the past cases economy could recover, because planet was still very livable and inhabitable. But it's not going to be the case for that. Another issue - due to globalism the world is very interconnected. So once supply chains get hit, it would hurt more than in say 1930's, when the majority of people were still living in the countryside.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #738 on: July 10, 2020, 03:15:50 PM »
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Won’t Help
https://dailyreckoning.com/monetary-and-fiscal-policy-wont-help/

Monetary:
Quote
Well, velocity has been crashing for the past 20 years. From its peak of 2.2 in 1997 (each dollar supported $2.20 of nominal GDP), it fell to 2.0 in 2006 just before the global financial crisis and then crashed to 1.7 in mid-2009 as the crisis hit bottom.

The velocity crash did not stop with the market crash. It continued to fall to 1.43 by late 2017 despite the Fed’s money printing and zero rate policy (2008–15).

Even before the new pandemic-related crash, it fell to 1.37 in early 2020. It can be expected to fall even further as the new depression drags on.

As velocity approaches zero, the economy approaches zero. Money printing is impotent. $7 trillion times zero = zero. There is no economy without velocity.

Fiscal:
Quote
Here’s the problem:

There is strong evidence that the Keynesian multiplier does not exist when debt levels are already too high.

In fact, America and the world are inching closer to what economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff describe as an indeterminate yet real point where an ever-increasing debt burden triggers creditor revulsion, forcing a debtor nation into austerity, outright default or sky-high interest rates.

Reinhart and Rogoff’s research reveals that a 90% debt-to-GDP ratio or higher is not just more of the same debt stimulus. Rather it’s what physicists call a critical threshold.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #739 on: July 10, 2020, 03:25:14 PM »
jens, I respectfully disagree.  The underlying fundamentals for the previous depression and past recessions were much worse than before covid.  Hence, the likelihood of a second depression seem rather remote.

The previous depressions and recessions didn't have one underlying fundamental that the 2020's have - climate change. In the past cases economy could recover, because planet was still very livable and inhabitable. But it's not going to be the case for that. Another issue - due to globalism the world is very interconnected. So once supply chains get hit, it would hurt more than in say 1930's, when the majority of people were still living in the countryside.

Actually globalism is what will rescue the economies from the recession.  Globalism has created multiple supply chains, so that when one gets hit, another can step in and take its place.  It is precisely globalism that gives the economy its current strength, compared to when people where living in the countryside and had a sole source of resources.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #740 on: July 10, 2020, 03:27:57 PM »
They were optimized for money so they are suboptimal to say the least.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #741 on: July 10, 2020, 10:04:19 PM »
Economy Won’t Recover Until 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/economy-wont-recover-until-2023/
Quote
Here’s the problem.

Using 100 as a yardstick for 2019 output and assuming an unrealistic back-to-back years of 10% real growth in 2021 and 2022, one still does not get back to 2019 output levels.

The hard truth is 96.8 is less than 100.

It would take the highest annual real growth in over 40 years, sustained for two consecutive years, to get close to 2019 output levels.

It’s far more realistic to assume real growth will be less than 10% per year. That puts the economy well into 2023 before reaching output levels last achieved in 2019.

This is the reality of this depression.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #742 on: July 11, 2020, 02:20:46 PM »
How bailout debt is painting governments and central banks into a corner
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3092225/how-bailout-debt-painting-governments-and-central-banks-corner
Quote
Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, the next leader will start his term with record government debt. The pandemic has dealt a significant blow to government finances around the world. For some countries, such as the US and Japan, their central banks can help buy time before a debt reckoning. For others, painful austerity measures could be hard to avoid.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #743 on: July 12, 2020, 01:25:32 AM »
Hudson on USA coronavirus bailout: interview by Blumenthal and Norton

"The word coronavirus is just put in as an advertising slogan."

"So you’re having the pretense of a bailout, but the bailout really is an Obama-style bailout. It goes to the banks; it goes to those companies that have drawn up wish lists by their lobbyists"

"states and municipalities, they’re left broke."

"three months from now, you’re going to have broke states, broke municipalities, labor that cannot, whose savings was wiped out."

"you’re going to have a shrinkage of the economy, a vast shrinkage."

"finance, insurance, and real estate. And this is the only part of the economy that is being enabled to survive."

"since the Obama bailouts of 2008, the entire growth of the GDP has only accrued to 5 percent of the population."

"we’re already in a 12-year depression, the Obama depression"

" the 1 percent that have access to bank credit, and I have their own equity capital, are going to come in and pick up a lot of real estate that’s going to be defaulted on — just like they did after Obama evicted his constituency"

"we’re going to have a much more centrally planned by a coalition of monopolies and the government. In the 1930s, that was called fascism."

"Why is it okay for the Fed to create $1.5 trillion to buy stocks to prevent rich people from losing on their stocks, when it’s not okay to print only $1 trillion to pay for free Medicare for the entire population? "

https://moderaterebels.com/transcript-us-coronavirus-bailout-michael-hudson/

Part 2 of the interview is at

 https://moderaterebels.com/transcript-economics-american-imperialism-michael-hudson/

but is less relevant to this threat. I will post a fuller description in the Empire thread.

sidd


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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #744 on: July 12, 2020, 04:37:54 AM »
Economy Won’t Recover Until 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/economy-wont-recover-until-2023/
Quote
Here’s the problem.

Using 100 as a yardstick for 2019 output and assuming an unrealistic back-to-back years of 10% real growth in 2021 and 2022, one still does not get back to 2019 output levels.

The hard truth is 96.8 is less than 100.

It would take the highest annual real growth in over 40 years, sustained for two consecutive years, to get close to 2019 output levels.

It’s far more realistic to assume real growth will be less than 10% per year. That puts the economy well into 2023 before reaching output levels last achieved in 2019.

This is the reality of this depression.

You are making a straw man argument. By the same measure, using 100 as a yardstick for 2007 output, the economy did not recover to that level until 2015.   Yet, no one called that a depression.  Your rosy scenario has us returning to pre-COVID levels in half that time.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #745 on: July 12, 2020, 12:43:54 PM »
Again, Walrus, no one called the Great Recession a Depression because the D-word became verboten after the Thirties. This one may make the R-word unusable. We may have to come up with new words.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #746 on: July 12, 2020, 02:04:57 PM »
Tom, it had nothing to do with being forbidden.  Rather, it was simply not a depression.  I find it truly amazing how often people try to relate current situations to some past horror without justification.  W have had one depression in history, and it looks like it will remain so in the near term.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #747 on: July 12, 2020, 02:26:27 PM »
Economy is not a scientific field (yet)! So the D-word definition varies widely.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #748 on: July 12, 2020, 03:46:56 PM »
Thus is the logical fallacy in redefinition.  If we change the meaning enough, it becomes meaningless, and any usage of it is also becomes meaningless. 

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #749 on: July 12, 2020, 03:48:56 PM »
The point is, there is no definition in the first place. So anyone's meaning is valid!
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain