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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #750 on: July 12, 2020, 05:08:06 PM »
Thus begins the decline into the equivocation abyss.

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #751 on: July 12, 2020, 06:47:28 PM »
Walrus, don't get me wrong. I'm all for precice words.

Blame the economists, not me. ;)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #752 on: July 12, 2020, 06:55:46 PM »
From the Wikipedia article:
Quote
Generally, periods labeled depressions are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced using current resources and technology (potential output).[2] Another proposed definition of depression includes two general rules:[3][4]

a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or
a recession lasting 2 or more years.
There are also differences in the duration of depression across definitions. Some economists refer only to the period when economic activity is declining. The more common use, however, also encompasses the time until the economic activity has returned close to normal levels.[1]
AFAIK we are already at 10% or more GDP decline for at least a couple months, right? We will see in about twenty months if the recession lasts two years. And I don't kow how to evaluate the first definition.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #753 on: July 12, 2020, 08:05:34 PM »
Yes, hindsight is always a better viewpoint.  We just ended the first quarter of the recession.  Technically, a recession is two quarters of negative gdp, but I will jump the gun here.  The recession of 2008-9 encompassed four quarters of negative gdp, with a maximum of 8% drop in the fourth quarter of 2008.  We have endured one quarter of a 5% drop.  Many consider the 1980/82 recession to be a greater hardship with double dip declines of 8% and 6% combined with high inflation.  Predicting that we will be in a depression two years from now requires keen insight and extraordinary knowledge of economics.  I will readily admit to neither. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #754 on: July 12, 2020, 08:52:07 PM »
Bloomberg thinks the markets will behave as follows....

Bulls to Gain Ground in Market Primed for Virus-Defying Rally

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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #755 on: July 12, 2020, 09:09:39 PM »
From Flour to Canned Soup, Coronavirus Surge Pressures Food Supplies
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/coronavirus-surge-challenges-struggling-food-supply-chains-11594546200

Food makers work to meet rising demand after initial lockdowns ate through inventories

Grocers are having trouble staying stocked with goods from flour to soups as climbing coronavirus case numbers and continued lockdowns pressure production and bolster customer demand.

Manufacturers including General Mills Inc., Campbell Soup Co. and Conagra Brands Inc. say they are pumping out food as fast as they can, but can’t replenish inventories. Popular items such as flour, canned soup, pasta and rice remain in short supply.

As of July 5, 10% of packaged foods, beverages and household goods were out of stock, up from 5% to 7% before the pandemic, according to market-research firm IRI.

“We are running flat out,” said Conagra’s Chief Executive Sean Connolly. He said Conagra won’t be able to build up inventory of certain brands, such as Chef Boyardee and Healthy Choice, unless demand slows or it further increases manufacturing capacity.



Food makers and grocers expect prolonged shelter-in-place orders and restrictions on restaurants, as well as the battered economy, to result in a longer stretch of eating at home. Added safety measures at plants are slowing operations, too. There is enough food in the U.S. to keep people fed, executives say, but every product might not be available everywhere while inventories are strained.

Many retailers in states where cases are surging, including Texas-based H-E-B LP, are reinstating rationing on high-demand items including paper products. They say their distributors are still capping the amount of fast-selling products that can be ordered at one time.

In mid-March, flour sales soared 233% from a year earlier, according to market-research firm Nielsen and remained 25% higher in June than the prior year.

Mark Griffin, president of Nebraska-based B&R Stores Inc., said the chain would be in worse shape if cases rise again in the Midwest because it lacks the inventory it had in March. B&R has been stockpiling bottled water and other products at its warehouses, he said. The grocer has also tried to secure new suppliers for canned products, baking items and ramen noodles. So far, that has only yielded a truckload here and there, Mr. Griffin said.

Soup is particularly hard to source, he said: “There’s no plethora of manufacturers available.”

Campbell’s CEO Mark Clouse said the company ran through reserves of its namesake soup and snacks such as Pepperidge Farm Goldfish crackers during the initial rush of orders in the spring. That demand was a shock to a supply chain that had been largely recalibrated to handle flat or falling demand over the past decade, he said: “We’re racing to try to rebuild some inventory.”

... Wisconsin-based grocer Festival Foods is receiving about 80% of the goods it orders and is removing some products from shelves to make room for roughly double the toilet paper it normally stocks, said Chief Executive Mark Skogen.

... Farmer Direct Foods Inc., a Kansas flour mill and supplier for King Arthur, is filling about 35 trucks a month with flour, up from 18 typically.

The mill has run out of packaging at times, said CEO Bob Morando, and equipment has broken down because he added a shift and hasn’t had time to do preventive maintenance.
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #756 on: July 13, 2020, 03:52:25 AM »
Big gets bigger: ritholtz on corp sizes and gains

Image from https://ritholtz.com/2020/07/10-tuesday-am-reads-295/

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #757 on: July 13, 2020, 01:49:34 PM »
”Since the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.”

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert
Quote
"I think what's important is that there's going to be no summertime lull with a big wave in the fall. It's clear that we are having a significant resurgence of cases in the summer, and they'll get bigger. And it'll keep going until we lock things down again."

Unlike the influenza virus, which was behind the 1918 pandemic that claimed as many as 50 million to 100 million lives around the world, Toner says there's no good evidence of seasonality with COVID-19. Until we have a vaccine, any rise or fall in cases will be based on social factors: communities locking down and families sheltering in place. And, as was the case back in 1918, individuals wearing masks
...
As for those who refuse to wear a mask?
"They will get over it.  It's just a question of how many people get sick and die before they get over it."
https://www.cnet.com/news/living-with-masks-for-years-covid-19-through-the-eyes-of-a-pandemic-expert/
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #758 on: July 15, 2020, 03:48:17 PM »
China’s Food Prices Continue to Rise Amid Historic Floods, Coronavirus Impact
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/floods-coronavirus-create-more-uncertainty-for-china-as-food-prices-climb.html

Elevated food prices are just one of many new challenges China needs to face in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.

Historic floods in the southern part of the country and the temporary re-emergence of the coronavirus in a major produce market in Beijing are adding upward pressure to prices of food, which rose 11.1% in June from a year ago.

Authorities are closely monitoring this key aspect of the cost of living – and the floods – for their implications on social stability. From a business perspective, the rising food costs are just another factor that the already struggling restaurant industry need to consider as they look for innovative growth opportunities in an era of social distancing.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #759 on: July 15, 2020, 09:10:01 PM »
Walmart mandates masks for in-store shopping.  (One alternative is online ordering with store Pickup outside.)

A Simple Step to Help Keep You Safe: Walmart and Sam’s Club Require Shoppers to Wear Face Coverings
Quote
While we’re certainly not the first business to require face coverings, we know this is a simple step everyone can take for their safety and the safety of others in our facilities. According to the CDC, face coverings help decrease the spread of COVID-19, and because the virus can be spread by people who don’t have symptoms and don’t know they are infected, it’s critically important for everyone to wear a face covering in public and social distance.

In addition to posting clear signage at the front of our stores, Walmart has created the role of Health Ambassador and will station them near the entrance to remind those without a mask of our new requirements. Our ambassadors will receive special training to help make the process as smooth as possible for customers. The ambassadors, identifiable by their black polo shirts, will work with customers who show up at a store without a face covering to try and find a solution. We are currently considering different solutions for customers when this requirement takes effect on July 20. ...
https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2020/07/15/a-simple-step-to-help-keep-you-safe-walmart-and-sams-club-require-shoppers-to-wear-face-coverings
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gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #760 on: July 16, 2020, 06:54:56 PM »
Crude & stocks down a tad today. Some headlines from Bloomberg today. I am waiting for the fall. But what do I mean by "The Fall"?

7/15/2020 Carson Block Warns Tesla Short Sellers: ‘I Wouldn’t Do That’

7/15/2020 Markets Walk Dangerous Tightrope Before U.S. Stimulus Ends

7/15/2020 Nasdaq ‘Fear Gauge’ Flashes Warning Signs About Tech Rally
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #761 on: July 16, 2020, 07:05:48 PM »
Americans Tear Up Old Eating Habits, Forcing Farms to Raze Crops
July 16, 2020
Quote
Americans have rapidly changed the ways they buy, cook and eat food in just four months, leaving everyone from farmers to restaurants unable to match their pivot.

U.S. consumers, whose previous food preferences were stable enough that farmers could often make reliable planting decisions years in advance, have shifted their habits at a torrential pace during the coronavirus pandemic. That includes cooking more at home, buying more organic food, purchasing in bulk, forgoing brand-name treats and eating smaller meals due to fewer trips to restaurants with their often oversized portions.

Even one of those changes by itself could throw a wrench in the global food supply chain. Add all five together, and some suppliers are finding they can’t adapt fast enough to keep pace with all the changing consumer demands. Farmers like Jack Vessey, a lettuce grower in California, have been forced to destroy crops after restaurant demand dried up, while Oreo-maker Mondelez International Inc. is cutting its product offerings by 25% to simplify logistics.

“The entire food supply chain has been put on its head,” said Kevin Kenny, chief operating officer at Decernis, an expert in global food safety and supply chains. “Nobody can really do a post-mortem because we are still in the middle of it.”

The ways Americans are changing their food habits are not only multiple and significant -- they’re also potentially permanent.

Almost a third of U.S. adults say they plan to cook at home even more than they do now, once stay-at-home recommendations have lifted. Home-kitchen purchases back that up: In the early weeks of the pandemic, U.S. sales of electric pasta makers grew more than five times what they were a year prior. Breadmaker sales more than quadrupled, according to data from NPD Group. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-16/americans-tear-up-old-eating-habits-forcing-farms-to-raze-crops
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #762 on: July 16, 2020, 09:02:27 PM »
U.S.:  More and more retailers are requiring masks in their stores as a nationwide policy.

Walmart
CVS
Target
Kroger
Kohl’s
Best Buy

CVS and Target join other major retailers in requiring masks in US stores
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html
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kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #763 on: July 16, 2020, 10:14:51 PM »
Not a supply issue since anyone can get a mask. You can add updates in he mask thread.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #764 on: July 17, 2020, 02:50:08 AM »
As Jobless Claims Spike, Florida Cuts 1,000 From Unemployment Staff
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/florida-unemployment-office-the-poster-child-of-delayed-benefits-cuts-1000-workers.html

Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity, which administers unemployment benefits for the state, is cutting nearly 1,000 customer-service jobs – about a quarter of the staff.

The department ended its contracts with two third-party firms, AECOM and UDT, which supplied hundreds of staffers to field phone calls from laid-off workers.

The move comes as applications for unemployment benefits rise in the state and delays persist in paying out aid.

Some fear the claw-back could worsen the situation in a state that some observers see as a poster child of poor administration.

About 900,000 people are collecting benefits in the Sunshine State, a figure that’s more than doubled since early May.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #765 on: July 18, 2020, 03:44:23 PM »
Not a supply issue since anyone can get a mask. You can add updates in he mask thread.

It may not be a supply issue, but I would say employees being assaulted by customers angered at COVID mask requirements is certainly a “consequence.”

A new survey finds hundreds of McDonald's workers have been assaulted by anti-mask customers, as mandatory masks become the norm
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.msg275034.html#msg275034
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #766 on: July 18, 2020, 05:00:23 PM »
Professor Richard Wolff: Coming Economic Crash Will be WORSE Than Great Depression

Quote
Professor Richard Wolff gives his thoughts on new statistics revealing 32% of households have not yet made their full housing payments for July.

About Rising:
Rising is a weekday morning show with bipartisan hosts that breaks the mold of morning TV by taking viewers inside the halls of Washington power like never before. The show leans into the day's political cycle with cutting edge analysis from DC insiders who can predict what is going to happen. It also sets the day's political agenda by breaking exclusive news with a team of scoop-driven reporters and demanding answers during interviews with the country's most important political newsmakers.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #767 on: July 18, 2020, 05:51:38 PM »
Side note: in the U.S., polls show the majority of the population is less concerned about the stricken economy than about the growing pandemic.  Many parents cannot go back to work if their child stays home.

In Arizona, school reopening sparks protest movement
Quote
July 18 (Reuters) - Arizona third-grade teacher Stacy Brosius has been called a “liberal socialist Nazi” and a “whiner and complainer” for leading car-based protests to delay in-person schooling, but she says she’s doing it to save lives in a pandemic.

Inspired by Black Lives Matter demonstrations, hundreds of Arizona teachers like Brosius are putting on red t-shirts they last wore in a 2018 strike and driving around cities in cars daubed with slogans like: “Remote learning won’t kill us but COVID can!”

With “motor marches” spreading to other coronavirus-hit sunbelt states, including Florida, and counter demonstrators organizing “reopen” rallies, the fight over the new school year is fast becoming America’s new protest flashpoint.

In Arizona, teachers want Republican Governor Doug Ducey to push the start of in-person school to at least early October after a beloved educator died of COVID-19 teaching summer school and statewide hospitalizations and deaths spiral. ... 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona-teachers-idUSKCN24J0FS
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 06:00:07 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #768 on: July 19, 2020, 10:01:02 PM »
The Death of Cities
Quote
Today, about half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. There are 400 cities with more than a million people. Roughly 80 percent of Americans live in urban areas, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. What’s strange though, according to Gallup, is Americans don’t want to live in big cities. They want to live in rural areas.
 …
So to recap, less than 5% currently [Work From Home] but 80% want to. The truth is, we can’t all be coders, influencers, and YouTube stars. The world needs ditch diggers, too.

COVID has absolutely brought to light all of the pushes from living in a big city to the pulls of rural America. The longer the pandemic is still considered a threat, the more WFH will be adopted as the standard—while employers and employees begin recognizing the benefits. ...
https://www.330ramp.com/blog/2020/5/22/the-death-of-cities
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #769 on: July 20, 2020, 01:58:59 AM »
5 Charts Illustrating U.S. Economic Trends Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html









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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #770 on: July 20, 2020, 02:06:35 PM »
What Lies Ahead
https://jackrasmus.com/2020/07/17/what-lies-ahead/
Quote
The US economy at mid-year 2020 is at a critical juncture. What happens in the next three months will likely determine whether the current Great Recession 2.0 continues to follow a W-shape trajectory—or drifts over an economic precipice into an economic depression. With prompt and sufficient fiscal stimulus targeting US households, minimal political instability before the November 2020 elections, and no financial instability event, it may be contained. No worse than a prolonged W-shape recovery will occur. But should the fiscal stimulus be minimal (and poorly composed), should political instability grow significantly worse, and a major financial instability event erupt in the US (or globally), then it is highly likely a descent to a bona fide economic depression will occur.

The prognosis for a swift economic recovery is not all that positive. Multiple forces are at work that strongly suggest the early summer economic ‘rebound’ will prove temporary and that a further decline in jobs, consumption, investment, and the economy is on the horizon.

EDIT: Also in
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/07/20/what-lies-ahead-2/
« Last Edit: July 22, 2020, 12:33:14 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #771 on: July 20, 2020, 04:36:33 PM »
World Facing Bankruptcy Time Bomb: Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-world-bankruptcy.html

"COVID-19 is creating an insolvency time bomb," said the report by Euler Hermes, predicting a 35-percent cumulative jump in the number of companies that go bust between 2019 and 2021.

The firm, which provides insurance for trade deals, said this would be a record for its global insolvency index—and that about half of the countries worldwide would be setting new highs since the 2009 financial crisis

The biggest increase among the world's economic powerhouses will be in the United States, with a 57 percent jump in insolvencies in 2021 compared to 2019, before the coronavirus struck.

Bankruptcies are expected to soar by 45 percent in Brazil, 43 percent in Britain, and 41 percent in Spain.

China is forecast to see a 20 percent surge in bankruptcies.

In the United States, "the rapid spread of the virus is amplifying the trough in activity and generating a liquidity crisis for a larger set of companies", said the report.

"We do not expect the U-shaped recovery in the US to be sufficient to offset all the legacies of the crisis on financial metrics, nor to prevent the rise in insolvencies from continuing into 2021," it added.

"The larger the company filing for bankruptcy, the higher the risk of a domino effect," said the report.

Euler Hermes also warned of two scenarios in which bankruptcies could jump even higher. ...

https://www.eulerhermes.com/en_global/economic-research/insights/Calm-before-the-storm-Covid19-and-the-business-insolvency-time-bomb.html

Report (PDF): https://www.eulerhermes.com/content/dam/onemarketing/ehndbx/eulerhermes_com/en_gl/erd/publications/pdf/2020_07_16_InsolvencyTimeBomb.pdf
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #772 on: July 21, 2020, 02:10:53 PM »
The Real Unemployment Rate is 21%--and Heading Higher
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-real-unemployment-rate-is-21-and.html
Quote
It is somewhat less than reassuring that the "official" unemployment rate of around 12% is roughly half of the "real-world" unemployment rate. As always in the wonderful world of statistics, especially politically potent ones, it depends on what you measure, what you don't measure / act as if it doesn't exist, and how you measure what you do measure.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #773 on: July 21, 2020, 04:08:07 PM »
U.S.
Suze Orman: A perfect financial storm is brewing and it is worse than 2008
Quote
… The temporary moratorium on evictions from federal subsidized housing, which was granted in the CARES Act, lasts through July 24. Once those protections end, you can be evicted if you aren’t able to pay your rent.  … 20 million to 28 million people could be displaced from their homes between July and September.

That [$600 unemployment] subsidy is scheduled to end July 31, unless Congress extends it. For many states, due to their pay schedules, it ends by July 26.

Anyone holding a federal student loan was able to suspend their payments until October thanks to the CARES Act. If there is no extension, they’ll have to start paying their monthly bill again after Sept 30.


It all adds up to a picture that is far bleaker than 2008, Orman said.
“This is 50,000 times worse, in my opinion, because there’s no direction,” she said.
Plus, while the Great Recession was brought on by the subprime mortgage crisis, which then led to the near collapse of the financial system, this recession has been caused by a health crisis.
That’s led to businesses shutting down, either temporarily or permanently. Weekly jobless claims keep rising, with 1.3 million Americans filing for unemployment for the week ending July 11.
Thanks to social distancing, jobs that people turned to in 2008 to get by, like waitressing and driving cars, are not available...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/suze-orman-a-perfect-storm-is-brewing-and-it-is-worse-than-2008.html
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Alexander555

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #774 on: July 21, 2020, 10:23:46 PM »
The US will probably slowly recover for a part, after next winter. Thanks to that 600 usd a week. For the rest of the planet it will be a lot harder. Over here cinemas are closing down again. Not because they have to, because they are not profitable anymore. And now infections are on the rise again.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #775 on: July 23, 2020, 11:44:00 AM »
More Than Half of Business Closures are Permanent
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/more-than-half-of-business-closures-are-permanent
Quote
Overall, permanent closures have steadily increased since the peak of the pandemic with minor spikes in March, followed by May and June.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #776 on: July 23, 2020, 08:31:28 PM »
U.S.:  Unemployment Claims Are Rising at the Worst Possible Time
Quote
For the first time in 16 weeks, unemployment is up. And that's bad news on multiple levels.
On July 23, the U.S. Department of Labor reported an uptick in unemployment claims, with 1.4 million Americans filing for first-time benefits. And while that news isn't shocking, it drives home the point that the quick economic recovery a lot of people may have hoped for is unlikely to happen. …
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/23/unemployment-claims-are-rising-at-the-worst-possib.aspx

—-
The feared jumbo mortgage debacle is here — thanks to the coronavirus — and ready to pound the housing market
Quote
Jumbo mortgages are loans that are larger than the limits set for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the FHA to guarantee or insure. During the craziest years of the housing bubble, 2004 through 2007, close to $3.1 trillion in jumbos was originated.  Most were offered with insanely easy terms, which helped precipitate the collapse that followed.

As housing markets plunged over the next five years, jumbo loans for home purchases all but dried up. Jumbo mortgage lending returned only gradually during the early years of the so-called housing recovery.   

All that changed starting in 2016.  Since then, jumbo mortgage lenders have tripped over each other to hand out huge loans to applicants.  Between 2016 and 2019, roughly $1.5 trillion of these jumbos were originated.  Cash-out refinancing also returned with a vengeance. Reversing the traditional approach, interest rates and underwriting standards for jumbos were actually lower than for conventional loans.  For these lenders, mortgages offered to high-income borrowers who could afford the monthly payments seemed the least risky of all. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feared-jumbo-mortgage-debacle-is-here-thanks-to-the-coronavirus-and-ready-to-pound-the-housing-market-2020-07-22

——
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on US economic outlook: `We're in for a very bumpy ride'
Quote
•      Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Wednesday that the U.S. economy will be hampered by high unemployment and a plodding recovery because of the coronavirus pandemic.
•      “I think in the next couple of months you’ll see a tamping down of that acceleration, I think you’ll see poorer economic numbers,” Solomon said. “I think we’re in for a very, very bumpy ride.”
•      Over the long term, the U.S. will probably face slower growth, a weaker dollar and a huge debt related to paying for the crisis response, Solomon said. 

“Over the long term, the U.S. will probably face slower growth, a weaker dollar and a huge debt related to paying for the crisis response. He noted that policymakers were just starting to pull back from the approach necessitated by the previous crisis 10 years ago when the pandemic struck.
"I think it will take an awful long time to navigate our way out," he said. …
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-on-us-economic-outlook-were-in-for-a-very-bumpy-ride.html

—-
Market risks rising as US, China tensions escalate toward new cold war
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/as-superpowers-turn-their-backs-on-each-other-the-risk-for-markets-is-rising.html

—-
Agreement unlikely in U.K. and U.S. trade talks until after 2020 due to coronavirus
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/agreement-unlikely-in-uk-and-us-trade-talks-until-after-2020-due-to-coronavirus-2020-07-22
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #777 on: July 23, 2020, 09:55:53 PM »
 ;D

Deodorant sales fall due to social distancing but locked down consumers send ice-cream sales soaring, says Unilever
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deodorant-sales-fall-due-to-social-distancing-but-locked-down-consumers-send-ice-cream-sales-soaring-says-unilever-11595532255

Chocolate sales are also up:
Americans spent $3.7 billion on chocolate in the 17-week period that ended June 27, which is up 6.3% from the same window last year.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eating-chocolate-once-a-week-can-lower-your-risk-of-heart-disease-study-2020-07-23

Future sales trend: weight loss products? :o
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glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #778 on: July 26, 2020, 02:41:07 AM »
There are practical reasons to believe that Normal is a fairyland to which we can never return. The virus has not gone away, and is likely to keep recurring in waves. But let’s focus on another question: if such a land existed, would we want to live there?

The polls consistently suggest we would not. A survey by BritainThinks a fortnight ago found that only 12% of people want life to be “exactly as it was before”. A poll at the end of June, commissioned by the nursery provider Bright Horizons, suggested that just 13% of people want to return to working as they did before the lockdown. A YouGov study in the same week revealed that only 6% of us want the same type of economy as we had before the pandemic. Another survey by the same pollsters in April showed only 9% of respondents wanted a return to “normal”. It’s rare to see such strong and consistent results on any major issue.

Last month, confined to our homes, we watched columns of smoke rising from the Arctic, where temperatures reached a highly abnormal 38C. Such apocalyptic imagery is becoming the backdrop to our lives. We scroll past images of fire consuming Australia, California, Brazil, Indonesia, inadvertently normalising them. In a brilliant essay at the beginning of this year, the author Mark O’Connell described this process as “the slow atrophying of our moral imaginations”. We are acclimatising ourselves to our existential crisis.

Just as there has never been a normal person, there has never been a normal time. Normality is a concept used to limit our moral imaginations. There is no normal to which we can return, or should wish to return. We live in abnormal times. They demand an abnormal response.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/21/greener-happier-world-politicians-boris-johnson-consumerism-planet
« Last Edit: July 26, 2020, 03:03:47 AM by glennbuck »

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #779 on: July 26, 2020, 03:04:14 PM »
Europe’s Economy to Outpace U.S. in Upending of Past Roles
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-26/europe-s-economy-set-to-outpace-u-s-in-upending-of-past-roles

... America’s failure to get a grip on the pandemic is putting the brakes on its rebound compared with Europe, where many former virus hot spots managed to resume economic activity without causing a similar surge in infections


EU ~ 80%, US, UK, Sweden ~ 60%

Crucial for a sustainable recovery is confidence that the virus is no longer out of control, and Europe’s relative success may help encourage shoppers to spend and businesses to invest, further propelling demand and growth. The region has also done a better job of protecting jobs and incomes, at least for now, with furlough programs keeping millions of workers on payrolls.


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

dnem

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #780 on: July 26, 2020, 03:18:38 PM »
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that global output will never exceed 2019 levels. The long-lasting effects of the pandemic, layered with increasing climate costs, the ongoing demographic transition in the high consumption countries and a general growing awareness of the multiple sustainability crises afflicting humanity will all conspire to reduce worldwide output. This is hardly an unmitigated negative; we need to rein in global production/consumption dramatically to have a prayer.

I'm not especially confident of this prediction and we may be able to crank up the machine for one last go that exceeds 2019 levels for a few years to a decade or so, but after that the human endeavor will be on a downward trajectory. Also, the twisted way that we calculate GDP, that counts all sorts of things that don't reflect human prospering, will result in a lot of spending that is really about mopping up human suffering, not advancing health and welfare.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #781 on: July 28, 2020, 01:42:43 PM »
“Work from home” means fewer business suits.

Bloomberg on Twitter: "Men's Wearhouse owner Tailored Brands says it's likely to go bankrupt in the third quarter
Article: https://t.co/0MhjbvN63V


https://twitter.com/business/status/1287891281314799617
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #782 on: July 28, 2020, 01:52:31 PM »
New NASA Research Projects Probe COVID-19 Impacts
Quote
The COVID-19 pandemic has touched most aspects of human life. In recent months, NASA has initiated research projects focused on how the human response to the pandemic has affected our environment, like how air quality has improved in the wake of reduced vehicular traffic in many places. But the tentacles of the pandemic extend well beyond that.

How have production disruptions affected agriculture and food supply? What about our ability to forecast water availability in coming months? How do changes in activity levels affect environmental conditions?

Food Supply Monitoring ...

Preserving Water Supply Forecasts With Remote Sensing
In the semiarid western U.S., farmers and water resource managers rely on water supply forecasts both to ensure there is enough water to meet demand and to make the most efficient use of the water available.

The primary variable in these forecasts is what's called snow water equivalent, which is the amount of water contained in the snow that accumulates and compacts over the winter. In spring and summer, snowmelt becomes a significant freshwater source. Each month, surveyors take manual measurements of snow water equivalent at hundreds of monitoring stations across the region.

But what happens when a global pandemic limits the surveyors' ability to travel and take these measurements?

"As the pandemic evolved, we quickly discovered that the ground-based data that water resource managers have historically relied on for their decision making is potentially not going to be as readily available as it was in the past, because it requires people in trucks or in helicopters going out into the field to make these measurements," said University of Colorado scientist Noah Molotch. "Our project will leverage remotely-sensed snow data to fill these data gaps."

In doing so, Molotch and his colleagues hope to minimize disruptions to the water supply forecasts on which so many water and agricultural professionals rely.

Activity Mapping: Slowing Down and Speeding Up
[Satellite] data can show changes to Earth's surface over time. In this case, the scientists are looking at things like how the concentration and arrangement of cars in parking lots and on highways has changed from pre-pandemic patterns as well as changes to construction sites. ...
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/new-nasa-research-projects-probe-covid-19-impacts
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #783 on: July 28, 2020, 05:23:02 PM »
Why U.S. unemployment system is broken: 'It really is an experiment out of control'
Quote
The unemployment system is fraying.
Unemployment benefits are less generous than in decades past, in key metrics like duration, amount paid and the share of unemployed who receive aid.

The aggregate result is less money going to fewer people for a shorter amount of time.

This dynamic is playing out during an unemployment crisis fueled by the coronavirus pandemic, when nearly 32 million people are collecting jobless benefits.
...

After the Great Recession, when states depleted their unemployment insurance trust funds to pay benefits, some states decided to cut back on jobless aid instead of raising taxes to refill their coffers, Wandner said.

Of course, as is the case now, the federal government can offer more relief during recessions. Lawmakers boosted aid by $600 a week, expanded the pool of workers eligible for benefits and extended pay by 13 weeks.

But these are just temporary stopgaps. The $600 payments ended over the weekend. Lawmakers are struggling to figure out whether to extend or replace them. Eligibility and duration expansions will be cut off at the end of the year.

Taken together, the unemployment system isn't equipped to handle a recession of this severity, Wandner said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/why-experts-say-the-unemployment-system-is-broken.html
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glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #784 on: July 30, 2020, 02:04:25 PM »
The links between climate change and pandemics are also becoming clearer. As humans increasingly encroach on wildlife habitats, they are coming into more frequent contact with bats and other zoonotic disease vectors. And there is growing concern that as the Siberian permafrost melts, long-frozen deadly viruses will resurface and quickly spread around the world as Covid-19 did.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/30/covid-19-has-shaken-global-economy-but-other-white-swan-threats-remain?fbclid=IwAR3PHK9BZMTRnqGDF0V0x4nWj1Z-07Ti-GPWoKm7dVurgmOBtepnCWgGRa0

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #785 on: July 30, 2020, 06:27:41 PM »
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #786 on: July 30, 2020, 07:43:24 PM »
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.

OMG falls off chair, the bank of England was saying awhile ago UK in for the worst recession since 1706. None of us have lived through a Pandemic and great depression before, i think many people do not understand what is going to happen over the next few years, it is a ship show.

bbr2315

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #787 on: July 30, 2020, 08:03:14 PM »
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.
If by Trump economy you mean the depression was caused by Democratic Governors, then yes, it is the Trump economy.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #788 on: July 30, 2020, 08:16:19 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #789 on: July 30, 2020, 09:03:07 PM »
And will a (the?) long-term consequence of Covid-19 be that these 4 organisations & their masters will rule over us entirely from the cradle to the grave? Or do they already?

four tech CEOs
– Tim Cook of Apple,
- Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook,
- Sundar Pichai of Google, and
- Jeff Bezos of Amazon

Quote
“Our founders would not bow before a king, we should not bow before the emperors of the online economy.”

Quote
Louis Brandeis, said, “We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”

Quote
I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country. - Thomas Jefferson

I'm from the UK. But what happens in the USA doesn't stay in the USA.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/congress-forced-silicon-valley-to-answer-for-its-misdeeds-it-was-a-glorious-sight
Congress forced Silicon Valley to answer for its misdeeds. It was a glorious sight
Matt Stoller

The five and a half hour long hearing on Capitol Hill offered a stunning illustration of the extent of misdeeds by big tech

Quote
Congresswoman Lucy McBath played audio of a seller on Amazon tearfully describing how her business and livelihood was arbitrarily destroyed by Amazon restricting sales of their product, for no reason the seller could discern. Bezos acted surprised, as he often did. Representative Jamie Raskin presented an email from Bezos saying about one acquisition that: “We’re buying market position not technology.” Bezos then admitted Amazon buys companies purely because of their “market position”, demonstrating that many of hundreds of acquisitions these tech companies have made were probably illegal.

Mark Zuckerberg had to confront his own emails in which he noted that Facebook’s purchase of Instagram was done to buy out a competitor. His response was that he didn’t remember, but that he imagined he was probably joking when he wrote that. One congresswoman on Joe Biden’s vice-presidential shortlist, Val Demings, asked Zuckerberg why he restricted Facebook’s tools for competitors like Pinterest, but not for non-competitors like Netflix. He had no answer. Congressman David Cicilline asked about Facebook promoting incendiary speech and making money off advertising sold next to that speech. Zuckerberg pivoted to free speech talking points, and Cicilline cut him off, “This isn’t a speech issue, it’s about your business model.”

Big tech’s dominance has serious consequences. America has lost thousands of media outlets because of the concentration of ad revenue in the hands of Google and Facebook; two-thirds of American counties now have no daily newspaper. The nation lost 100,000 independent businesses from 2000 to 2015, a drop of 40%, many due to Amazon’s exploitation of legal advantages from the avoidance of sales tax to its apparent violation of antitrust laws in underpricing rivals. Hundreds of thousands of merchants now depend on Amazon’s platform to sell goods, and Amazon has systemically hiked fees on them. Just a few years ago these third-party merchants paid 19% of their revenue to Amazon, now it’s up to 30%, which is, coincidentally, the amount Apple demands from hundreds of thousands of app makers who have to reach iPhone users. It’s no secret why small business formation has collapsed since the last financial crisis; these giant platforms tax innovation.

And then there’s the fear. I have reported on small and medium-sized businesses frightened to come forward with stories of how they are abused by counterfeiting or unfair fees by the goliaths. As one told me about his relationship to Amazon, “I’m a hostage.”

Fortunately, the voices of small businesspeople afraid of retaliation came through their elected leaders. “I pay 20% of my income to Uncle Sam in taxes, and 30% to Apple,” one member of Congress noted she heard from businesspeople. Representative Ken Buck, Republican from Colorado, talked about one of the few courageous businesspeople who testified openly months ago, the founder of PopSockets, who had been forced to pay $2m to Amazon just to get Amazon to stop allowing counterfeits of its items sold on the platform. Another Republican representative, Kelly Armstrong, went into the details of Google’s use of tracking to disadvantage its competitors in advertising, joined by Democrat Pramila Jayapal, who asked Google’s CEO why the corporation kept directing ad revenue to its own network of properties instead of sending ad traffic to the best available result.

antitrust enforcers for the last 15 years, stretching back to the Bush and Obama administrations, bear massive culpability for the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of these corporations. The emails and information that Congress dug up were available to these enforcers, who nonetheless approved merger after merger, and refused to bring complaints against anti-competitive behavior.
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Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #790 on: July 31, 2020, 08:08:56 AM »
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.
If by Trump economy you mean the depression was caused by Democratic Governors, then yes, it is the Trump economy.

I am not a big fan of blame shifting..... Trump leads the show, he needs to accept the responsibility for the situation regardless.

But he will do his scape goating and blame gaming rather than focus on what actually needs to be done to combat the problem itself.

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #791 on: July 31, 2020, 09:12:58 AM »
If by Trump economy you mean the depression was caused by Democratic Governors, then yes, it is the Trump economy.

Trump is not only responsible qua being POTUS, he is also responsible because he is not acting as if there was a pandemic around.

Thereby he is increasing uncertainty, which caused the economy to crash so hard.

Yes, every country in the world has seen the economic numbers going down. The numbers going down is not on him per se. The numbers going down in this horrendous way indeed is.

Every country that put measures in place to reduce uncertainty has seen a slowed down downtrend.

He and the political elite (yes, also some Dems) are blinded by ideology. All they do is printing huge amounts of money and giving that to their rich friends and the biggest and richest companies in the world - as they always do. That's just the US playbook. But those cronies don't represent the economy. They are only a small part of it.

Now you have monopolies and you send the rest of the economy into despair. Now you have oligarchs and you deemed the rest of the country losers.

The US is a failed state now. And Trump made it so. And it will only get worse because this pandemic is everything but over.
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #792 on: July 31, 2020, 01:56:52 PM »
COVID-19 has led to a global economic slowdown that is affecting all four pillars of food security—availability, access, utilization, and stability—according to a new article from researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), published in the journal Science. Agricultural and food markets are facing continuous disruptions due to labor shortages caused by lockdowns, as well as large shifts in food demand arising from income losses and the closure of schools and restaurants. The key findings highlight the impact of COVID-19 on food systems, the global economy, poverty, health, and trade.

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-economic-food-chain-disruptions-endanger.html?fbclid=IwAR1qm__QO6LyI3KLS8zRzebg5Y8cpDoxXwdAtYUgvCKGLUZ-1LTRaaC0HJ4

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #793 on: July 31, 2020, 03:28:23 PM »
Ravaged by coronavirus, Mexico's GDP falls record 17.3% in second quarter
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-economy-gdp/ravaged-by-coronavirus-mexicos-gdp-falls-record-17-3-in-second-quarter-idUSKCN24V260?il=0
Quote
GDP fell 17.3% in the second quarter from the previous three months in seasonally adjusted terms, the sharpest drop on record, preliminary data from the INEGI national statistics agency showed.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #794 on: July 31, 2020, 03:29:53 PM »
The ‘restaurant apocalypse’ is ‘much worse than I thought,’ Jim Cramer says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/jim-cramer-the-restaurant-apocalypse-is-much-worse-than-i-thought.html
Quote
“If you’re in the business of serving people food in a brick-and-mortar setting, all I can say is stick a fork in it, because that business is done,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said.
“Yum is the largest restaurant company on earth. Pizza Hut’s their largest division, and it might not need dining rooms at all,” the “Mad Money” host said.
“That terrifies me because I’m in the restaurant business and most of us smaller operators simply are not built around takeout,” he said.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #795 on: August 01, 2020, 09:31:42 PM »
Fitch Ratings downgrades its outlook on U.S. debt.

Quote
...
“The outlook has been revised to negative to reflect the ongoing deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan,” Fitch analysts wrote on Friday in a report announcing the decision.
...

Link >> https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/07/31/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #796 on: August 01, 2020, 11:19:40 PM »
Fitch ratings ? The same guys who flogged a bunch of triple A securities that turned out to be triple Zs in the last recession ?

sidd



blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #797 on: August 02, 2020, 09:25:09 AM »
Well, Sidd, i don't give much credence to those rating honks either. But they are there, and they do have influence no matter what we two think of it.
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

oren

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #798 on: August 02, 2020, 09:55:44 AM »
I often fail to find the the merit in estimating conventional risks for dollar-denominated bonds issued by the US government. As long as they own the printing presses, they will make good on all these bonds, even while robbing the bond investor of all value in the end.
I agree though that the crazy deficits during Covid-19 will hasten that day of reckoning, so I can see where Fitch is coming from.
And yeah, the ratings agencies are useless.

kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #799 on: August 02, 2020, 08:37:58 PM »
The whole system is useless. It´s just more window dressing. Capitalism is going to kill us but we are so used to it we can´t see an alternative. It´s still working and it is the best we ever had but maybe score a whole lot of points which are interesting to us humans to survive and look at the perimeters.

So yes AGW but also persistent general chemical pollution, the amount of plastics we add, the drain we put on soils an also aquifers (some of whom disappear due to AGW etc). All these things could with fixing. That also goes for all kind of social choices we apparently made.

Then again that discussion should go here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1102.0.html

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.