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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #800 on: August 03, 2020, 06:28:39 AM »
Re: Reopening schools

https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2767982

"compared with adults, children are 3-fold less susceptible to infection, more likely to be asymptomatic, and less likely to be hospitalized and die. "

"School closures have many profound consequences on children ... regressions in academic gains, heightened depression and anxiety symptoms, greater digital dependence, and numerous unmet social needs"

" 27 million workers depend on schools for childcare, prolonging school closures will also preclude the United States from effectively reopening and sustaining the economy"

"Some schools in Germany are providing self-administered viral tests with overnight results and allowing attendance only if the child has a negative result. "

"Once in class, children could stay there through the day while teachers rotate. Denmark has temporarily closed shared spaces, such as libraries and gyms. "

"Most countries that have reopened schools have alcohol-based rubs inside classrooms and enforce periodic handwashing. Facilities are being cleaned and disinfected at least once a day "

"Protecting the workforce that interacts with children is also imperative. "

"proposals have included prioritizing children of essential workers. Irrespective of who is allowed back first, all children should be given the choice to opt out of face-to-face instruction to accommodate their own health needs or those of high-risk family members."

" none of the 22 European nations that have reopened schools have observed an increase in infections among children, parents, or staff. In time, best practices and successful implementation strategies from some of these countries could be adapted in the United States."

"With states cutting education budgets, heterogeneous resource availability among US school districts, and geographic variability in COVID-19 incidence, a 1-size-fits-all solution is unlikely. "

Read the whole thing:

https://jamanetwork.com/channels/health-forum/fullarticle/2767982

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Paddy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #801 on: August 03, 2020, 08:01:13 AM »
Statistical musings: what will the impact of COVID be on global life expectancy in 2020?

As things stood pre-COVID, global life expectancy was 73. We were seeing about 58 million deaths per year, half of them in people under 73, half in older.

If COVID causes a million excess deaths worldwide, and half a million of them are in people under the age of 73... it probably won't damage global life expectancy very perceptibly. Maybe we'll see a bit of a dip in countries with a relatively high life expectancy and a relatively high death toll (such as the UK, Spain,  Belgium, Chile, USA etc).

But if we see 10 million excess deaths this year, the additional 5 million or so people dying younger than 73 may well pull the global figure down a little, with rather more noticeable drops among countries that both have a high pre-COVID life expectancy and a high death toll.

Hopefully, a vaccine should significantly reduce global direct COVID mortality from 2021 onwards. But then we have the economic consequences of this situation, which may have a more lasting impact.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #802 on: August 03, 2020, 12:10:26 PM »
Is This An L Shaped Recovery?
https://upfina.com/is-this-an-l-shaped-recovery/
Quote
The labor market is in trouble and the number of businesses that are permanently shutting down is increasing. California is underperforming. That’s the worst state to be in trouble because it’s the biggest economy. The stock market sees what is now obvious. It has decided not to sell off all stocks, especially not the big internet names (until recently). Instead it has gone with sector rotation. Usually, in slowdowns and recessions, the most expensive stocks underperform, but this time value stocks are underperforming (until recently). The concept of there being safety in value hasn’t worked out yet.
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #803 on: August 03, 2020, 11:16:25 PM »
(USA)

Arizona school superintendent: Reopening is a fantasy

"The governor has told us we have to open our schools to students on August 17th, or else we miss out on five percent of our funding"

"high-needs district in middle-of-nowhere Arizona. We’re 90 percent Hispanic and more than 90 percent free-and-reduced lunch."

"I already lost one teacher to this virus. "

"your classic one-horse town"

"We still haven’t received our order of Plexiglas barriers, so we’re cutting up shower curtains and trying to make do"

"last week I found out we had another staff member who tested positive"

"We got back two of those tests already — both positive. We’re still waiting on eight more. That makes 11 percent of my staff that’s gotten covid, and we haven’t had a single student in our buildings since March. Part of our facility is closed down for decontamination, but we don’t have anyone left to decontaminate it unless I want to put on my hazmat suit and go in there. "

"I don’t understand how anyone could expect us to reopen the building this month in a way that feels safe. "

"every time I start to play out what that looks like on August 17th, I get sick to my stomach. "

"it’s a fantasy. Kids will get sick, or worse. Family members will die. Teachers will die."

"A bunch of our teachers have told me they will put in for retirement if we open up this month. They’re saying: “Please don’t make us go back. This is crazy. We’re putting the whole community at risk.” "

"I agree with them 100 percent. "

" why are we getting bullied into opening? This district isn’t ready to open. I can’t have more people getting sick. Why are they threatening our funding? "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/01/schools-reopening-coronavirus-arizona-superintendent/

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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #804 on: August 04, 2020, 06:27:42 AM »
(USA)

Galloway on universities: reopening driven by money

"Right now half of colleges and universities plan to offer in-person classes, something resembling a normal college experience, this fall. This cannot happen. In-person classes should be minimal, ideally none."

"The economic circumstances for many of these schools are dire"

"many college presidents believe they have no choice. "

"the bulk of colleges have become tuition dependent. If students don’t return in the fall, many colleges will have to take drastic action that could have serious long-term impacts on their ability to fulfill their missions. "

"Universities owning up to the truth have one thing in common: they can afford to. Harvard, Yale, and the Cal State system have announced they will hold most or all classes online. The elite schools’ endowments and waiting lists make them largely bullet proof, and more resilient to economic shock"

"It’s delusional to think students will keep 6 feet apart."

"Thrive: The elite schools and those that offer strong value have an opportunity to emerge stronger "

"Challenged: ...  high admit rates, high tuition, low endowments, dependence on international students, and weak brand equity."

"Many are not prepared for a surge of infections. Some have permanent populations with high numbers of retirees attracted by the cultural benefits of a nearby college. Other at-risk cohorts include cafeteria workers, maintenance crews, security guards, librarians, bartenders, cab drivers, their spouses and family members, and anyone else unfortunate enough to have made the once perfectly reasonable decision to live in a college town. And if/when there is an outbreak, the healthcare infrastructure of these university towns could be overrun in a matter of weeks, if not days. "

https://www.profgalloway.com/uss-university

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #805 on: August 04, 2020, 04:40:34 PM »
Many colleges are requiring that all students test negative for Covid before arriving on campus.  Once on campus, students are restricted room leaving - the colleges are cancelling breaks and leaves.  For many schools, this creates an "island" within the larger community.  Some schools cannot accomplish this due to their location within the community and proximity to others.  How well this works, rest upon the students. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #806 on: August 04, 2020, 04:42:23 PM »
Next COVID casualty: Cities hit hard by the pandemic face bankruptcy
https://theconversation.com/next-covid-casualty-cities-hit-hard-by-the-pandemic-face-bankruptcy-142539
Quote
The pandemic will reduce local government revenues by an estimated US$11.6 billion in 2020. With COVID-19 requiring residents to stay home and stores to shutter, the bulk of this reduction comes from a slump in local sales taxes. Declines will continue into 2021.

State revenues are heading in the same direction, so many U.S. cities will need to rely on help from the federal government. Aid to cities may be part of the next pandemic aid package now being discussed by members of the House and Senate. But so far, the Republicans’ bill leaves out any new funding for state and local governments, while the Democrats’ bill includes $1 trillion for it.

And if federal assistance arrives, it will not fix every city’s budget.

The pandemic has hit budgets so hard that even cities in relatively good financial health – including those with rainy day funds to help them through an emergency – will face significant changes to staffing and services.
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Alexander555

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #807 on: August 04, 2020, 09:06:16 PM »
Massive money printing to fight the results of the covid-19 outbreak is pushing gold above 2000 usd/ounce for the first time ever. Silver up 6 %. And the winter in the NH still has to start. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-edge-higher-but-march-to-2000-hamstrung-by-rising-dollar-2020-08-04?mod=hp_LATEST

glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #808 on: August 05, 2020, 11:24:31 AM »
Covid-19 crisis devastates Spain’s tourism industry

The sector has recorded its worst semester ever, with a 97% drop in visitors and 750,000 jobs at risk

"The Spanish tourism sector has lost 27.3 million visitors and €28.4 billion in revenue in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. And the new outbreaks, coupled with travel advisories issued by several countries, suggest that things will not improve significantly during the second half of the year."

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-08-05/covid-19-crisis-devastates-spains-tourism-industry.html?fbclid=IwAR32Osp_UMZZ1yWh5JYBoEXPT4YH2UCEncENIDLmTeX3mdrPgkIk6V9A3QA



Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #809 on: August 06, 2020, 12:46:12 PM »
Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back
https://apnews.com/89992979ca3c3ba72eb2cd31a9ca0e5d
Quote
He and two co-authors have estimated that up to 40% of layoffs in March through May were permanent. That figure will likely rise, he said, the longer the pandemic squeezes the economy.

“We’re kind of past the stage where we’re quickly recalling workers to their old jobs,” Davis said, “and getting to the stage that people will need to get new jobs at new companies or in new industries.”

It is a trend that points to a grinding, sluggish recovery.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #810 on: August 06, 2020, 04:17:53 PM »
Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back
https://apnews.com/89992979ca3c3ba72eb2cd31a9ca0e5d
Quote
He and two co-authors have estimated that up to 40% of layoffs in March through May were permanent. That figure will likely rise, he said, the longer the pandemic squeezes the economy.

“We’re kind of past the stage where we’re quickly recalling workers to their old jobs,” Davis said, “and getting to the stage that people will need to get new jobs at new companies or in new industries.”

It is a trend that points to a grinding, sluggish recovery.

That may be true.  In every recession, some jobs are lost that never return.  Some refer to this as trimming the fat.  However, during the subsequent recovery, new jobs spring up to take their place.  The economy is changing continuously; old jobs are lost and new ones are created.  Some jobs linger on past their expiration date due to contracts, history, complacency, or legacy.  The work force today differs significantly from that 50 years ago, which differed from that 50 years prior.  I suspect the same will be true 50 years in the future. 

"The only constant in life is change," - Heraclitus.   In was true back then, it is still true today.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #811 on: August 07, 2020, 12:15:27 PM »
No "V"
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/no-v/
Quote
These pictures are worth thousands of words:

Also:
Millions of Workers Suffering From Repeat Layoffs
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/millions-of-workers-suffering-from-repeat-layoffs
Quote
California is not unique. This implies millions of workers nationally are suffering through repeated layoffs and reduced hours.
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #812 on: August 07, 2020, 02:14:10 PM »
No "V"
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/no-v/

Some of those have "V" shapes (consumer spending and GDP growth).  The rest are too soon to tell.

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #813 on: August 07, 2020, 04:29:42 PM »
"U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July as it worked to recover from the coronavirus pandemic"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/07/july-2020-jobs-report

<removed tracking crap. If a link shows a questionmark followed by a lot of bs its a tracker and the questionmark and all following can be removed.kassy>
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 06:54:01 PM by kassy »

glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #814 on: August 07, 2020, 06:51:52 PM »
The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down

A depression is not a period of uninterrupted economic contraction. There can be periods of temporary progress within it that create the appearance of recovery. The Great Depression of the 1930s began with the stock-market crash of October 1929 and continued into the early 1940s, when World War II created the basis for new growth. That period included two separate economic drops: first from 1929 to 1933, and then again from May 1937 into 1938. As in the 1930s, we’re likely to see moments of expansion in this period of depression.

https://time.com/5876606/economic-depression-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR20Ifrcn2SSKE9y8dNLWXkXtFdTf0dav1ws1dZ1Igc82LCpgJ5KS0sVQCc

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #815 on: August 08, 2020, 04:15:02 PM »
Coronavirus hastens Big Oil's Atlantic divide on climate change
Quote
The big picture: Economic shutdowns around the world in response to the coronavirus choked off oil demand at a time when the industry was already awash in too much of the fuel and struggling financially. Now, the world may be changing in permanent ways that tilt society away from what has been a steadily growing demand for oil despite rising concerns about its impact on the planet.

“The coronavirus crisis has, all of a sudden, accelerated at least the potential that oil demand will plateau,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley.

Persistently low oil prices are making other sources more intriguing investments. “The profitability of investing in renewables versus oil and gas is an awful lot closer now.”

How it works: Europe’s more progressive governments and investors are major reasons why its oil companies are looking to evolve compared to their U.S. counterparts.

“If you’re a European company, you’re looking at much more aggressive government policies,” said Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning author who is about to publish another book — "The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations" — next month. ...
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-big-oil-us-europe-climate-change-5c81df43-951d-442a-9881-062bcef65ee5.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #816 on: August 08, 2020, 07:25:01 PM »
COVID-19 was cited as the reason for 63,517 job cuts in July. The respiratory illness has been blamed for 1.075 million layoffs so far this year. The balance of job cuts in July were attributed to market conditions, a downturn in demand and bankruptcies.

Job cuts announced by U.S. companies jump 54% in July: report
Quote
U.S. employers announced another 262,649 job cuts in July as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to weigh on demand, the latest indication that the labor market recovery is losing steam.

“The downturn is far from over, especially as COVID cases rise around the country,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray. “Consumers are buying fewer goods and services, businesses are closing, and bankruptcies are rising.”.

Several retailers including J.C. Penney and Lord & Taylor have filed for bankruptcy since March. Job cuts remained concentrated at bars, restaurants, hotels and amusement parks. The automotive sector cut 83,853 jobs.

“It is clear that many job losses are now permanent, and it will be challenging for many workers to find new jobs and feel safe taking jobs that are public-facing,” said Challenger.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-employment-idUSKCN2521N5
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Neven

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #817 on: August 08, 2020, 11:38:14 PM »
Craig Murray on some COVID corruption, which is probably the reason BoJo made his sudden U-turn:

Quote
Stinking Tory Corruption

I wrote a furious article about the £250 million PPE contract inexplicably awarded to the “family office” Ayanda Capital, an investment house for private wealth tax avoidance. We now learn £150 million of face masks delivered are unusable as they do not meet the required standards.

The Times today reports the NHS year’s supply of top level “FFP2” masks for surgical and similar use – 43 million of them – delvered by Ayanda failed regulatory testing. This was entirely predictable. As I wrote on 8 July:

Quote
The normal public procurement tendering process has pre-qualification criteria which companies have to meet. These will normally include so many years of experience in the specific sector, employment of suitably qualified staff, possession of the required physical infrastructure and a measure of financial stability. This is perhaps obvious – otherwise you or I could simply stick in a bid to build the HS2 railway that is £10 billion cheaper than anybody else, win the contract then go and look for a builder.

Ayanda Capital would fail every single test in normal procurement criteria to supply PPE to the NHS. I can see no evidence that anybody in the company had ever seen PPE except when visiting the dentist. They appear to have no medical expertise, no established medical procurement network, no quality control inspection ability, no overseas shipment agents, no warehousing or logistics facilities. We have of course seen this before from these crooked Tories with their “emergency procurement”, with the “ferry company” with no ferries. But this – a quarter of a billion pounds – is on a whole different level.

I understand that normal procurement chains were struggling, but I would still trust any of the UK’s numerous long established and globally successful medical supply companies to go out and get the right kind of medical supplies, of the right quality, and arrange their supply and delivery, rather than throw an incredible sum of taxpayers’ cash at the first couple of City wide boys who said they can do it. From a company with a very dodgy balance sheet.

Plainly Ayanda Capital had no pretence of every having the expertise to undertake this kind of procurement. The excellent piece of investigative journalism (and what a delight it is to be able for once to say that) by the Times’ Billy Kenber reveals something still more horrifying. He says the deal was put together by a “government adviser” who is also an “adviser” to Ayanda Capital.

So there you have the answer to how this obscure and completely inappropriate company landed this massive contract; simple network corruption, with a Tory “adviser” taking a cut from both ends. It speaks volumes of how Johnson’s Tories view government; an opportunity for self-enrichment through getting their hands on the state purse. Covid-19 may seem a disaster to us, to them it is an opportunity. Procurement regulations are suspended. Massive contracts are thrown around with no checks and no competition. Public health functions like test and trace are thrown to new start-up companies owned by their their mates instead of being run by the established public infrastructure in councils and the NHS. It is a big, money-making Tory Bonanza.

We do not just need a public inquiry. We need people to go to prison. All those involved in the Ayanda Capital PPE contract would be a good start.

UPDATE 8:58am

I have just seen this absolutely astonishing thread from Jolyon Maugham at 6.25am this morning. It really is mind-blowing. Not only did the “adviser”, named as Andrew Mills, set this all up, he himself established an intermediary company in the transaction to cream off a fortune.

Links can be found in the original text.
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glennbuck

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #818 on: August 10, 2020, 04:25:13 PM »
There are 30 million to 40 million people in the United States at risk of being evicted by the end of the year, according to a report released Friday by the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Unless Congress acts to reimpose a moratorium on certain evictions, extend unemployment benefits or offer some other relief, these people could be forced out of their homes in the middle of an economic downturn and a pandemic.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-evictions-starting-2020_n_5f2dbf23c5b6e96a22b285a5?ri18n=true

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #819 on: August 10, 2020, 11:46:08 PM »
Sharp, Short U.S. Recession Giving Way to Longer-Term Scarring
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-10/sharp-short-u-s-recession-giving-way-to-longer-term-scarring
Quote
Payrolls remain 13 million below pre-pandemic levels and the number of people out of work for 15 weeks or longer more than doubled from the prior month, to 8 million. The labor-force participation rate fell for the first time in three months and the number of people discouraged by job prospects hit a five-year high.
Quote
The longer it takes the economy to recover, the worse it will be for wages as a weak jobs market reduces worker bargaining power. For the employed, that may mean a skipped raise or even a pay cut. For the jobless searching for a new position, an enormous pool of applicants may mean accepting less pay.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #820 on: August 11, 2020, 04:00:06 PM »
Singapore’s economic contraction in the second quarter was worse than initial estimates
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/singapore-releases-second-quarter-2020-gdp-economic-data.html
Quote
Singapore’s economy contracted by 42.9% in the second quarter of 2020 on an annualized, seasonally-adjusted basis compared to the previous quarter, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said.
The latest update on Singapore’s gross domestic product was worse than the official advance estimate released last month.
On a year-on-year basis, the economy shrank by 13.2% in the quarter ended June 30, according to the ministry.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #821 on: August 11, 2020, 04:33:59 PM »
Out of work and with families to feed, some Americans are lining up at food banks for the first time in their lives
https://www.yahoo.com/news/food-banks-increased-demand-newcomers-unemployment-expiring-090006421.html
Quote
Across the country, Americans who’ve never had to rely on food assistance before are turning to local organizations for aid. In July, the Census Bureau reported that nearly 30 million Americans said they didn’t have enough to eat in the prior week, a situation that is likely to worsen since the expanded unemployment insurance of $600 per week ended last month. Food banks across the country are bracing for both another spike in food insecurity and the fact that the effects of the pandemic are likely to last until 2021 and beyond.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #822 on: August 11, 2020, 04:37:27 PM »
Global Lockdowns Set to Plunge 100 Million Into Extreme Poverty
https://summit.news/2020/08/10/global-lockdowns-set-to-plunge-100-million-into-extreme-poverty/
Quote
“With the virus and its restrictions, up to 100 million more people globally could fall into the bitter existence of living on just $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank. That’s “well below any reasonable conception of a life with dignity,” the United Nations special rapporteur on extreme poverty wrote this year. And it comes on top of the 736 million people already there, half of them in just five countries: Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Congo and Bangladesh.”

The report notes that the impact of the lockdown on the poor in countries like India was “so abrupt and punishing” that their Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, begged for forgiveness.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #823 on: August 11, 2020, 04:41:32 PM »
July 2020 Rent Report
https://thenycalliance.org/information/july-2020-rent-report
Quote
The survey of nearly 500 owners and operators of restaurants, bars and nightlife establishments across the city found that a growing number of businesses could not pay rent in July.

EIGHTY-THREE PERCENT OF RESTAURANTS AND BARS COULD NOT

PAY FULL RENT IN JULY, SURVEY FINDS

 Numbers Continue to Climb as Indoor Dining Remains on Pause

37 Percent of Businesses Paid No Rent at All

 
What happens when winter comes and you can't dine outdoors anymore?
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #824 on: August 11, 2020, 06:33:59 PM »
Looks like clothing companies might see a bump. Everyone who sells warm clothes.

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #825 on: August 11, 2020, 09:46:22 PM »
Looks like clothing companies might see a bump. Everyone who sells warm clothes.

and you called it first.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #826 on: August 12, 2020, 03:09:57 AM »
Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt
The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first
Quote
IT IS ASTONISHING how rapidly the pandemic has spread, despite all the efforts to stop it. On February 1st, the day covid-19 first appeared on our front cover, the World Health Organisation counted 2,115 new cases. On June 28th its daily tally reached 190,000. That day as many new cases were notched up every 90 minutes as had been recorded in total by February 1st.

The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first. Some 10m people are known to have been infected. Pretty much everywhere has registered cases (Turkmenistan and North Korea have not, though, like Antarctica). For every country such as China, Taiwan and Vietnam, which seems to be able to contain the virus, there are more, in Latin America and South Asia, where it is raging. Others, including the United States, are at risk of losing control or, in much of Africa, in the early phase of their epidemic. Europe is somewhere in between.

The worst is to come. Based on research in 84 countries, a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reckons that, for each recorded case, 12 go unrecorded and that for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes. Without a medical breakthrough, it says, the total number of cases will climb to 200m-600m by spring 2021. At that point, between 1.4m and 3.7m people will have died. Even then, well over 90% of the world’s population will still be vulnerable to infection—more if immunity turns out to be transient.

The actual outcome depends on how societies manage the disease. Here the news is better. Epidemiologists understand how to stop covid-19. You catch it indoors, in crowds, when people raise their voices. The poor are vulnerable, as are the elderly and those with other conditions. You can contain the virus with three tactics: changes in behaviour; testing, tracing and isolation; and, if they fail, lockdowns. The worse a country is at testing—and many governments have failed to build enough capacity—the more it has to fall back on the other two. Good public health need not be expensive. Dharavi, a slum of 850,000 people in Mumbai, tamed an outbreak (see article).

Treatments have improved, thanks to research and dealing with patients. Although mass vaccination is still months away at best (see article), the first therapies are available. More is known about how to manage the disease—don’t rush to put people on respirators, do give them oxygen early. Better treatment helps explain why the share of hospital patients who went on to be admitted to intensive care fell in Britain from 12% at the end of March to 4% in mid to late May.

And economies have adapted. They are still suffering, of course. J.P. Morgan, a bank, predicts that the peak-to-trough decline in the first half of the year in the 39 economies it follows will be around 10% of GDP. But workers stuck in Zoom hell have discovered that they can get a surprising amount done from home. In China Starbucks designed “contactless” ordering, cutting the time customers spend in its coffee shops. Supply chains that struggled now run smoothly. Factories have found ways to stagger shifts, shield staff behind plastic and change work patterns so that personal contact is minimised.
Now that nationwide lockdowns are done, governments can make sensible trade-offs—banning large indoor gatherings, say and allowing the reopening of schools and shops. Sometimes, as in some American states, they will loosen too much and have to reverse course. Others will learn from their mistakes.

The problem is that, without a cure or a vaccine, containment depends on people learning to change their behaviour. After the initial covid-19 panic, many are becoming disenchanted and resistant. Masks help stop the disease, but in Europe and America some refuse to wear one because they see them as emasculating or, worse, Democratic. Thorough handwashing kills the virus, but who has not relapsed into bad old habits? Parties are dangerous but young people cooped up for months have developed a devil-may-care attitude. Most important, as the months drag on, people just need to earn some money. In the autumn, as life moves indoors, infections could soar.

Changing social norms is hard. Just look at AIDS, known for decades to be prevented by safe sex and clean needles. Yet in 2018, 1.7m people were newly infected with HIV, the virus that causes it. Covid-19 is easier to talk about than AIDS, but harder to avoid. Wearing a mask is chiefly about protecting others; the young, fit and asymptomatic are being asked to follow tedious rules to shield the old and infirm.

Changing behaviour requires clear communication from trusted figures, national and local. But many people do not believe their politicians. In countries such as America, Iran, Britain, Russia and Brazil, which have the highest caseloads, presidents and prime ministers minimised the threat, vacillated, issued bad advice or seemed more interested in their own political fortunes than in their country—sometimes all at once.

Covid-19 is here for a while at least. The vulnerable will be afraid to go out and innovation will slow, creating a 90% economy that consistently fails to reach its potential. Many people will fall ill and some of them will die. You may have lost interest in the pandemic. It has not lost interest in you.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/02/covid-19-is-here-to-stay-people-will-have-to-adapt
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #827 on: August 12, 2020, 03:48:26 AM »
“The Greatest Pull Forward In History”: Why This Recession Is Different, Similar & Worse
https://epbmacroresearch.com/2020/08/11/the-greatest-pull-forward-in-history-why-this-recession-is-different-similar-worse/
Quote
The COVID recession resulted in the most significant “pull-forward” of income growth in modern history.
An unprecedented amount of debt was used to plug a record output gap.
This recession is different because income growth increased as opposed to declined. The similarity comes from the use of debt capital to blunt the negative impact of deflation.
The outcome of the recession will ultimately be worse as the level of public and private indebtedness has breached all critical thresholds and will now have a non-linear impact on economic growth.
Overusing one factor of the production function, specifically debt capital, has diminishing marginal returns and will result in the weakest expansionary income growth in the years to come.
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #828 on: August 12, 2020, 08:12:25 AM »
Now this is real sorrow in the Midwest: Big10 cancels football (and so does Pac12)

" The Big Ten Conference announced the postponement of the 2020-21 fall sports season, including all regular-season contests and Big Ten Championships and Tournaments"

"men’s and women’s cross country, field hockey, football, men’s and women’s soccer, and women’s volleyball"

https://bigten.org/news/2020/8/11/general-big-ten-statement-on-2020-21-fall-season.aspx

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #829 on: August 13, 2020, 01:52:00 PM »
UK enters recession after GDP plunged by a record 20.4% in the second quarter
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/uk-gdp-plunged-by-a-record-20point4percent-in-the-second-quarter.html
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GDP (gross domestic product) expanded by 8.7% in June as government lockdown measures eased, having shown a meek 1.8% recovery in May following April’s 20.4% contraction.
The 20.4% second-quarter plunge follows a 2.2% contraction in the first quarter.
Analysts had expected a fall of 20.5% according to a Reuters poll.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #830 on: August 13, 2020, 01:58:26 PM »
The COVID-19 Eviction Crisis: An Estimated 30-40 Million People in America are at Risk
https://www.aspeninstitute.org/blog-posts/the-covid-19-eviction-crisis-an-estimated-30-40-million-people-in-america-are-at-risk/
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The United States may be facing the most severe housing crisis in its history. According to the latest analysis of weekly U.S. Census data, as federal, state and local protections and resources expire and in the absence of robust and swift intervention, an estimated 30–40 million people in America could be at risk of eviction in the next several months. Many property owners, who lack the credit or financial ability to cover rental payment arrears, will struggle to pay their mortgages and property taxes, and maintain properties. The COVID-19 housing crisis has sharply increased the risk of foreclosure and bankruptcy, especially among small property owners; long-term harm to renter families and individuals; disruption of the affordable housing market; and destabilization of communities across the United States. 
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #831 on: August 14, 2020, 12:49:47 AM »
Latin America will see ‘record-breaking contraction’ as the coronavirus shatters their economies, Goldman says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/argentina-mexico-and-peru-likely-to-see-double-digit-contractions-goldman.html
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As Latin America continues to battle the coronavirus outbreak, some economies in the region could see a “record-breaking contraction” not seen since World War II, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Latin America and the Caribbean have become a new global epicenter of the pandemic, and the United Nations warned several countries in the region are “now among those with the highest per capita infection rates worldwide.”
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #832 on: August 14, 2020, 04:48:59 PM »
With up to 40 million facing eviction how does this compare with the homelessness of the Great Depression?
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kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #833 on: August 14, 2020, 07:22:04 PM »
That is not important since this time is a pretty different. (totally different skew on urban vs country).

The number alone is staggering, more then 10% of the population. That would not end well so it will probably be fixed somehow.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #834 on: August 15, 2020, 10:17:24 AM »
Politicians and economists are experts at buying time and kicking the can down the road while pretending the problem is somehow fixed.
However the overhang of so many people with no savings and reduced income while debt-leveraged cannot be made to go away easily. The true solution is universal basic income, which I strongly doubt will be implemented, and in any case will only expose more harshly the actual insolvency of national governments.
The economies of the developed countries have never recovered from the Great Recession (and even the one before that), and the only thing propping up the whole house of cards is massive money printing supporting massive government debt and inflated asset prices. This cannot go on forever, though attempts to forecast the end of it all are futile.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #835 on: August 15, 2020, 02:46:56 PM »
Quote
That would not end well so it will probably be fixed somehow.
How do you expect it to be fixed? If it is not, what do you expect the ending to be in detail?
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Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #836 on: August 16, 2020, 04:22:45 AM »
Quote
That would not end well so it will probably be fixed somehow.
How do you expect it to be fixed? If it is not, what do you expect the ending to be in detail?

I am not a fan of the line of fhtinking that since bad things could happen that people will resolve it before said bad things happen.

So Tom's question is a good one.

For my part, I suspect bad things are coming. The political situation globally is quite bad and escalating with unhealthy leaders with egos that need stroking are also unhelpful.
People are becoming angry, incomes are disappearing and the basics of shelter, food and security are beginning to become a problem for many more people who probably have never considered how critical those things are because it hasn't been a problem until now.

Something radical needs to happen plus luck.... when that is the combination required for things to happen I tend towards the bad things happening.

Govts are, currently, leaning towards more controls on people... it is virus based and is mostly required.... but politicians are using this situation to further their own ends.
I think we need to combat the virus as we are in countries like New Zealand but the countries who don't are using the worsening health conditions for their political advantage.

So... to me, with a virus that is just bad enough to do something radical about and a political environment that is okay with abusing power, the most likely end game within the next 1 to 5 years is a significant war, a virus that worsens in its spread, and governments that are happy to bring down harsh controlling measures on their populations.

People dislike that.... so expect a few cival uprisings in places you wouldn't usually expect.

This virus is a problem, but the really big death numbers wont come from it.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #837 on: August 16, 2020, 02:22:15 PM »
Rodius, what would you consider to be a “significant war”? One with a million deaths? One with nukes? We are always having wars.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #838 on: August 16, 2020, 04:06:40 PM »
Here's Why the "Impossible" Economic Collapse Is Unavoidable
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug20/collapse-unavoidable8-20.html
Quote
A stair-step down to consequentially lower complexity and cost structures is simply not practical in much of the real world as fixed costs are mandated by regulations or impossible to cut for operational reasons. (For example, reducing a fleet of airliners by half doesn't necessarily translate into an ability to reduce aircraft maintenance facilities and staff by the same percentage.)

Airports, airlines, cruise ships, sport franchises, resorts, malls, local government services, venues, theaters, hospitals, universities and so on can't reconfigure at 50% of previous complexity and capacity. Their fixed costs and mandates simply don't allow for a 50% reduction in complexity and revenues.
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Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #839 on: August 17, 2020, 01:35:14 AM »
Rodius, what would you consider to be a “significant war”? One with a million deaths? One with nukes? We are always having wars.

Significant is one that disrupts the global status quo.

WW2 saw the rise of the US and the fall of the UK... for example... which led to a new way of doing things afterwards.

The next one may cost many lives, or not (probably will) but the end result will be a new way moving forward. Which could be better or worse.

If a significant war that has nukes happen, Covid and climate change will not be our biggest problem and it will always be much worse than anything else.

As an FYI, we are less at war now than we have ever been. Saying there are always war when there are billions of people is not surprising or noteworthy.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #840 on: August 17, 2020, 02:43:06 AM »
Rodius, what would you consider to be a “significant war”? One with a million deaths? One with nukes? We are always having wars.

Significant is one that disrupts the global status quo.

WW2 saw the rise of the US and the fall of the UK... for example... which led to a new way of doing things afterwards.

The next one may cost many lives, or not (probably will) but the end result will be a new way moving forward. Which could be better or worse.

If a significant war that has nukes happen, Covid and climate change will not be our biggest problem and it will always be much worse than anything else.

As an FYI, we are less at war now than we have ever been. Saying there are always war when there are billions of people is not surprising or noteworthy.

I cannot see the major powers going to war at this time.  They all know the potential consequences.  That said, a smaller conflict with their allies could drag them into a war, similar to WW1.  Yes, we are living in relatively peaceful times.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #841 on: August 17, 2020, 01:51:53 PM »
My next Toastmasters speech will be on the covid recession.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #842 on: August 17, 2020, 02:48:05 PM »
Good luck, Tom. Don't scare the people too much. ;)

Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #843 on: August 18, 2020, 01:46:31 AM »
My next Toastmasters speech will be on the covid recession.

That would be a good one to hear.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #844 on: August 18, 2020, 12:58:50 PM »
Japan’s economy shrinks at record rate, slammed by pandemic
https://apnews.com/d10ca239b0e6ffafc5a2c7deafd23d85
Quote
Japan’s economy shrank at annual rate of 27.8% in April-June, the worst contraction on record, as the coronavirus pandemic slammed consumption and trade, according to government data released Monday.

The Cabinet Office reported that Japan’s preliminary seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product, or GDP, the sum of a nation’s goods and services, fell 7.8% quarter on quarter.

The annual rate shows what the number would have been if continued for a year.

Japanese media reported the latest drop was the worst since World War II. But the Cabinet Office said comparable records began in 1980. The previous worst contraction, a 17.8% drop, was in the first quarter of 2009, during the global financial crisis.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #845 on: August 19, 2020, 12:38:58 PM »
What Post COVID-19 America Will Look Like
https://www.nestmann.com/what-post-covid-19-america-will-look-like
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In the months and years ahead, you’ll do fine and maybe even get rich if you sell weed edibles or become a video game star. If you own a mall, your golden days have passed. And no matter what, get ready for higher prices for the stuff you buy.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #846 on: August 20, 2020, 01:08:00 AM »
Fed officials expect that coronavirus will ‘weigh heavily’ on the economy, minutes show
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/fed-minutes.html
Quote
Federal Open Market Committee members expressed concern at their latest meeting over the future of the economy, saying that the coronavirus likely would continue to stunt growth and potentially pose dangers to the financial system.

At the July 28-29 session, the Federal Reserve’s policymaking arm voted to keep short-term interest rates anchored near zero, citing an economy that was falling short of its pre-pandemic levels.

Officials at the meeting “agreed that the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and was posing considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the meeting summary said.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #847 on: August 21, 2020, 01:26:37 PM »
America’s “Bridge Loan” Is Up
https://dailyreckoning.com/americas-bridge-loan-is-up/
Quote
The reality is, the economy’s in very bad shape. The idea that we’re going to bounce back out of this with all this pent up demand is nonsense. The data is already indicating we’re in a recovery, yes. But if you fall into a 50 foot hole and climb 10 feet up, you’re still 40 feet in the hole.

We’re not going to see 2019 levels of output until 2023 at the earliest. We’re not going to see 2019 low levels of unemployment until probably 2025. We’re not getting back there for three or four or maybe five years. So we’re looking at a long, slow recovery.

And that’s if things don’t get worse from here. But they could, especially if we get a deadly second wave.

We’ve climbed 10 feet out of the hole. Unfortunately, we could find ourselves right back at the bottom before too long.

And digging our way back up to 2019 levels would take even longer.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #848 on: August 21, 2020, 09:41:59 PM »
El-Erian says coronavirus devastation of small businesses threatens capitalism in the U.S.
Quote
Small business devastation during the coronavirus crisis presents risks to capitalism in the United States, Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Thursday.

"If you want capitalism to be sustained, you need buy-in from a lot of people. You cannot get buy-in if it's all about large corporations," the chief economic advisor at Allianz said on "Squawk Box."

"Remember what small businesses do. They're not just large employers, they also are the main way to have inclusive capitalism, an inclusive market-based system," said El-Erian, imploring Washington to sharpen the focus on providing targeted assistance.

The pandemic has caused dramatic economic upheaval, putting millions of Americans out of work as governments ordered nonessential businesses to temporarily shutter in order to help slow the spread of Covid-19. But for many small businesses, the closures may end up being permanent.


As of Aug. 11, there are about 155,000 total business closures reported on Yelp since March 1, according to data from the reviews company. About 91,000 of the closures, or 59%, are permanent.

"Many businesses have withstood having to temporarily shut their doors and operate at reduced capacity for months," Justin Norman, Yelp's vice president of data science, said Wednesday on "Squawk Box." "However the longer that continues without sufficient government aid or customer aid, the more businesses we're going to see forced to permanently shut their doors."

Congress established in March the Paycheck Protection Program as a way to provide loans that can turn into grants for small businesses. Billions of dollars were lent through the program. However, the window to apply for PPP loans has now closed — and negotiations on another coronavirus relief bill have ground to a halt.

The Federal Reserve also established a Main Street lending program, which has capacity for $600 billion in loans. But it has faced logistical challenges since it was announced in the spring. Banks originate the loans and the Fed purchases 95% of the amount. In its first month, just 13 companies gained approval through the Fed program, with total value a little more than $92 million.

"The Main Street lending program isn't going well. We need to fix that and we can fix that," El-Erian said. "The engineering is there. It's just a question of political will." ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/el-erian-coronavirus-small-business-devastation-threatens-capitalism.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #849 on: August 21, 2020, 10:23:14 PM »
Some Colleges Passing Pandemic-Related Expenses On to Students https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/college-students-get-hit-with-new-pandemic-related-extra-fees.html

From Covid-19 tests to new public safety measures, the costs for on-campus learning are adding up. Some colleges are trying to pass along a portion of those expenses to students by way of new fees.

At Merrimack College, for example, students must pay a $950 “Covid-19 mitigation fee” for the upcoming academic year.

Other schools are less transparent about the extra charges, but they may still be there, wrapped into pre-existing fees for room and board or student health.

With many colleges in extreme financial straits, they simply cannot shoulder the costs alone, said Christopher Rim, president and CEO of Command Education. “If they don’t tack on these fees, they are going to be in trouble,” he said. “But also, it’s not fair. Students don’t really get a choice to opt out.”

-----------------------------------



-----------------------------------

Eviction Protections Are Set to Expire, and ‘Landlords Are Just Waiting’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/evictions-are-expected-to-skyrocket-as-protections-expire.html

Even as the coronavirus pandemic rages on, eviction protections are drying up.

The federal eviction moratorium in the CARES Act expired at the end of July. Many states that paused their own proceedings have now allowed them to resume. Since July 15, eviction moratoriums have lapsed in Michigan, Maryland, Maine and Indiana.

“It’s going to be chaos,” said Eric Dunn, director of litigation at the National Housing Law Project. “Landlords are just waiting.”

Without more relief, up to 40 million Americans may lose their homes in this downturn, four times the amount seen during the Great Recession.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2020, 07:02:01 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late