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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #900 on: September 16, 2020, 01:11:48 AM »
A Depression For The 21st Century
https://www.kelseywilliamsgold.com/a-depression-for-the-21st-century/
Quote
Some are calling it the “Greater Depression” but that still makes last century’s Depression of the 1930’s the point of reference. The Great Depression of the 1930s was bad, but what we are facing now is worse.

The Depression Of The 21st Century will likely end up being the new singular event  of discussion and comparison for all financial and economic catastrophes.  Questions of how much worse and how long it will last are difficult to answer. Predictions about the type and strength of potential recovery could be premature.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #901 on: September 16, 2020, 01:27:13 AM »
Proposed COVID-19 Restaurant Surcharge in NYC Could Add 10% to Dining Out
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-city-council-restaurant-surcharge-covid-coronavirus-10-20200915-rfvrlngnbzb3hdswswucmg33ga-story.html?outputType=amp

The NYC Council is set to vote on a bill Wednesday that would institute a 10 percent surcharge on diners' total bills to help financially-strapped restaurants hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

The “COVID-19 Recovery Charge” wouldn’t apply to food trucks and most chains, and would lapse 90 days after full indoor dining is resumed in the city. According to the bill’s language, it would not include taxes or tips and would only be applied to on-premises dining, whether indoor or outdoor.

Saru Jayaraman, president of the advocacy group One Fair Wage, said the bill does not require that restaurant owners share the surcharge proceeds with its employees.
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The Walrus

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #903 on: September 17, 2020, 12:44:26 AM »
BREAKING:  Fed holds rate steady and promises to keep it there for years. 
What could go wrong? With interest rates near zero for the next three years, people will take money out of savings and invest in any foolish scheme offering more.

Fed Signals Interest Rates to Stay Near Zero Through 2023
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009168610/fed-signals-interest-rates-to-stay-near-zero-through-2023-5th-update
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #904 on: September 18, 2020, 12:41:44 PM »
New Zealand in Covid recession after worst quarterly GDP fall on record
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/new-zealand-in-covid-recession-after-worst-quarterly-gdp-fall-on-record
Quote
New Zealand has entered a recession with the economy contracting 12.2% in the June quarter – the largest drop since such records began in 1987.

Paul Pascoe at Stats NZ said the GDP fall was “by far the largest on record in New Zealand” and reflected months spent in lockdown.
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wili

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #905 on: September 18, 2020, 10:03:44 PM »
"
Paul Pascoe at Stats NZ said the GDP fall was “by far the largest on record in New Zealand” and reflected months spent in lockdown."

Problem is, they weren't in "lockdown" for "months."  Business closings only lasted from the end of March to the beginning of May

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_New_Zealand

(Perhaps he meant restrictions on travel by 'lockdown'? But that is not the usual use of the word in these contexts)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #906 on: September 20, 2020, 01:25:53 PM »
Pandemic’s Toll on Public Pension Plans
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/09/19/pandemics_toll_on_public_pension_plans_144250.html
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Battered by the coronavirus pandemic and low interest rates, public pension plans are headed for a record shortfall, posing risks to the living standards of millions of employees and retirees.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #907 on: September 23, 2020, 10:54:10 AM »
New Lockdowns Could Lead Europe to Economic Depression
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/new-lockdowns-could-lead-europe-to-economic-depression/
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f the European economy was ill-prepared for a series of lockdowns in February, it is even weaker now. What created a recession of unexpected proportions may generate a depression that will likely last for a few years.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #908 on: September 24, 2020, 02:59:36 PM »
U.S.
Those that can, are starting to divest from high-risk investments.
Junk bond jitters may signal the start of a stock market capitulation
Sept. 23, 2020 at 7:02 p.m. ET
High-yield bond weakness often a canary in the coal mine
Quote
Investors worried about recent turbulence in stocks may want to keep an eye on the near $1.5 trillion high-yield corporate bond market, to help gauge when a more substantial selloff in Wall Street might begin.

Analysts often view ructions in the high-yield, or “junk-bond,” market as a canary in the coal mine, or an early warning to when investors might start taking flight from riskier assets altogether.

Key drivers of recent jitters have been a brewing fight over the next Supreme Court judge, dimming prospects for another fiscal stimulus package, the potential for a contested Presidential election after Nov. 3 and the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic — all threatening to crack the foundation of the market’s recent gains.

The logic behind why investors should watch high-yield for signs of trouble has been that junk bonds typically are sold by America’s most indebted companies, leaving holders of such debt vulnerable to shifting expectations around the U.S. economic recovery.

Even so, the sector’s safety net remains the Federal Reserve, itself, which began buying up corporate debt during the pandemic for the first time in history, including acting as a creditor to recent “fallen angels” or companies that saw their credit ratings cut from the coveted investment-grade bracket to junk bond territory.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/junk-bond-jitters-may-signal-the-start-of-a-stock-market-capitulation-11600901634

—-
The second wave of a rolling bear market is about to begin, says top forecaster
Quote
“So we have a second wave coming, we have very wealthy people taking profits [on stocks] and we see a lot of speculation in the market. I think the market is going to start to go down again,” Lamoureux told MarketWatch recently. This selloff phase will start slow and extend into 2021, he added. Another big bounce will follow that, with a final drop to come perhaps near 2023. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-second-wave-of-a-rolling-bear-market-is-about-to-begin-says-top-forecaster-11600945948
⬇️Graph below.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #909 on: September 24, 2020, 07:12:03 PM »
The bear market would have already happened if it were not for the $3.2 trillion dollars of assets that the Fed has purchased since last March.

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #910 on: September 25, 2020, 06:20:02 AM »
(UK) Callaghan at wsws: England and Wales face eviction spike

" Monday’s lifting of the eviction ban for private renters in England and Wales."

" was introduced in March and has been extended twice. But on Monday the government gave the green light for those suffering the worst financial effects of the pandemic to be forced out of their homes."

"anyone served with an eviction notice since August 29 has been given a six-month notice period. Yet, up to 55,000 households served notices between March and August are not afforded this protection "

"There are 4.5 million private rented households in the UK ... Debt charity StepChange reports that 590,000 tenants have fallen into rent arrears since the lockdown"

"Housing charity Shelter reports more than 170,000 tenants have already been threatened with eviction "

"most at risk of eviction are the young and lowest-paid workers."

"Sussex and Surrey charity YMCA Downslink Group says it has seen a 61 percent rise in youth homelessness since the start of the coronavirus crisis"

"The British Medical Association (BMA) has warned that “people who are homeless are three times more likely to be chronically ill with lung and breathing problems—a serious risk factor in the development of the virus.” It notes the comments of Professor Dame Parveen Kumar, BMA board of science chair, who said with the ending of the eviction ban, “we could see large outbreaks of COVID-19 among the homeless population, not only putting this community at risk, but also the wider population.” "

"The UK’s largest food bank network, the Trussell Trust, has said it expects extreme poverty to double in the three months to Christmas, with at least 670,000 additional people becoming destitute."

" Since the lockdown, UK billionaires have seen their fortunes soar by 20 percent"

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/09/24/evic-s24.html

Kick em on the streets just in time for winter.

sidd


nanning

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #911 on: September 25, 2020, 10:51:03 AM »
Imagine you and your young family being thrown out onto the streets. Imagine.

UK's Thatcher's Buy-to-Let has created many rogue landlords and no renter protection and no rent cost ceilings. Evil insanity.

When do these rich people finally have enough? Why do they need more all the time at the cost of those who have not enough? Evil insanity.

Insanity is created by supremacy e.g. we/I am higher class, we/I am successful and earned it; we/I am stronger; we/I am richer; we/I am more powerful; we/I are more intelligent and knowledgable; we/I am more important; we/I drive a big car looking down on pedestrians and cyclists etc.
Insanity is always destructive in one way or another.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #912 on: September 25, 2020, 12:37:02 PM »
IMF official warns coronavirus will weigh on some economies for years
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/imf-official-warns-coronavirus-will-weigh-on-some-economies-for-years-idUSKCN26E34P
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The coronavirus crisis is lasting longer than expected and it will take some countries years to return to growth, the No. 2 official at the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #913 on: September 25, 2020, 05:28:40 PM »
HUNGER IN AMERICA, ESPECIALLY FOR CHILDREN, HAS “SKYROCKETED” DURING COVID-19, DATA SHOWS
https://theintercept.com/2020/09/23/hunger-food-insecurity-coronavirus-children-census/
Quote
THE LEVEL OF hunger in U.S. households almost tripled between 2019 and August of this year, according to an analysis of new data from the Census Bureau and the Department of Agriculture. Even more alarming, the proportion of American children who sometimes do not have enough to eat is now as much as 14 times higher than it was last year.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #914 on: September 25, 2020, 05:54:09 PM »
HUNGER IN AMERICA, ESPECIALLY FOR CHILDREN, HAS “SKYROCKETED” DURING COVID-19, DATA SHOWS
https://theintercept.com/2020/09/23/hunger-food-insecurity-coronavirus-children-census/
Quote
THE LEVEL OF hunger in U.S. households almost tripled between 2019 and August of this year, according to an analysis of new data from the Census Bureau and the Department of Agriculture. Even more alarming, the proportion of American children who sometimes do not have enough to eat is now as much as 14 times higher than it was last year.

Parents with hungry children will go back to work regardless of the risks to their health. This is a well planned strategy.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #915 on: September 25, 2020, 06:17:50 PM »
Quote
Parents with hungry children will go back to work regardless of the risks to their health. This is a well planned strategy.
Providing that, in the Great Depression of the 2020s, there is work to be found for them.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #916 on: September 27, 2020, 05:42:36 PM »
Grocers Stockpile, Build ‘Pandemic Pallets’ Ahead of Winter
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/grocers-stockpile-build-pandemic-pallets-ahead-of-winter-11601199000

Grocery stores and food companies are preparing for a possible surge in sales amid a new rise in Covid-19 cases and the impending holiday rush.

Supermarkets are stockpiling groceries and storing them early to prepare for the fall and winter months, when some health experts warn the country could see another widespread outbreak of virus cases and new restrictions. Food companies are accelerating production of their most popular items, and leaders across the industry are saying they won’t be caught unprepared in the face of another pandemic surge.

... Associated Food Stores recently started building “pandemic pallets” of cleaning and sanitizing products so it always has some inventory in warehouses, said Darin Peirce, vice president of retail operations for the cooperative of more than 400 stores. The company is establishing protocols so it can better manage scenarios of high demand.

... These changes, a reaction to the sudden and massive shortages grocers experienced in the spring, amount to a shift from the just-in-time inventory management practices that have guided the fast-moving retail business for decades.

Now, food sellers are stockpiling months, rather than weeks, worth of staples such as pasta sauce and paper products to better prepare for this winter, when people are expected to hunker down at home. Ahold Delhaize USA, SpartanNash Co. and others say they are buying more food as soon as they can, stocking warehouses with wellness and holiday items. Many retailers are expanding distribution capacity, augmenting warehouse space and modifying shifts.



... Ahold Delhaize, owner of the Giant and Food Lion chains, already has its holiday inventory in its warehouses. The grocer is also storing 10% to 15% more inventory than it did before the pandemic to ensure it won’t run out of fast-selling items.

 Industry executives say they don’t think a potential wintertime burst in grocery demand will be as extreme as it was in March, when people panic-shopped, fearing grocery-store closures or food shortages.

... Hormel Foods Corp. CEO Jim Snee said on a recent conference call that the company has 24% less inventory than a year ago. Its bacon, pepperoni, Skippy peanut butter and SPAM canned meat could run short if Covid-19 cases among workers interrupt production again, he said.

“We can’t afford any disruptions,” he said.

General Mills Inc. said it hasn’t caught up with demand for Progresso soup, Betty Crocker cake mixes and Pillsbury refrigerated dough. It is increasing its production capacity and has hired 30 new outsourcing partners since March. The company said the entire industry is still struggling to rebuild inventory on similar items.

Campbell Soup Co. ’s overall inventory is only about halfway recovered, and the team is pushing hard to fully catch up by January, according to CEO Mark Clouse. It is racing to get its Chunky and condensed soups and Swanson broths back in stock and adding production capacity for snacks such as Pepperidge Farm Goldfish crackers and Cape Cod potato chips.

Walmart Inc. Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs said the company is overriding its grocery-ordering algorithms in many stores to build up extra inventory now, after decades of becoming increasingly lean.

--------------------------------

The number of Covid-19 infections at food factories that supply UK supermarkets and restaurants could be more than 30 times higher than reported, according to a new report that warns employers have too much influence over official data.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/27/covid-cases-at-food-factories-in-uk-could-be-over-30-times-higher-than-reported

Food manufacturing – and meat processing plants in particular – have been at the heart of several major local outbreaks, with workers reporting cramped conditions and pressure not to take days off even when displaying symptoms.

But just 47 notifications of Covid-19 workplace infections – and no fatalities – have been reported to health and safety authorities by food manufacturing companies, who employ 430,000 people in the UK.

A new investigation by Pirc, which advises shareholders on ethical investment, found that there have been at least 1,461 infections and six fatalities, with the true figures likely to be even higher.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #917 on: September 27, 2020, 06:21:43 PM »
COVID-19 leads to massive labour income losses worldwide
https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_755875/lang--en/index.htm
Quote
For example, the revised estimate of global working time lost in the second quarter (Q2) of this year (when compared to Q4 2019) is for 17.3 per cent, equivalent to 495 million full time equivalent (FTE) jobs (based on a 48-hour working week), whereas the earlier estimate was for 14 per cent, or 400 million FTE jobs. In Q3 of 2020, global working hour losses of 12.1 per cent (345 million FTE jobs) are expected.

The outlook for Q4 has worsened significantly since the last ILO Monitor  was issued. Under the ILO’s baseline scenario, global working-hour losses are now projected to amount to 8.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (compared to Q4 2019), which corresponds to 245 million FTE jobs. This is an increase from the ILO’s previous estimate of 4.9 per cent or 140 million FTE jobs.
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wili

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #918 on: September 27, 2020, 07:19:08 PM »
This is a fake problem, in that there is plenty of money in the world. It just needs to be distributed more equitably.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #919 on: September 29, 2020, 12:03:40 AM »
COVID Life Imitating Art: Amazon’s Utopia Should Never Have Been Released in 2020
https://slate.com/culture/2020/09/utopia-amazon-series-remake-gillian-flynn-spoilers-uh-oh.amp

There’s a longstanding myth that director John Frankenheimer’s 1962 conspiracy thriller The Manchurian Candidate was pulled from release in response to the assassination of John F. Kennedy. That never happened—the movie’s theatrical release had already run its course by the time Kennedy was killed—but it seems like something that might have happened, and better yet, it’d be a good story if it had happened, which is more than enough to keep a conspiracy theory alive for decades.

After the Sept. 11 attacks, a wide array of movies and television shows really did get the Manchurian Candidate treatment, as filmmakers delayed, cancelled, or altered their work to remove references to terrorism or shots of the World Trade Center. It wasn’t a question of censorship so much as it was just reading the room—something the people behind Amazon Prime’s spectacularly ill-timed new conspiracy thriller Utopia really should have considered.

... Both the 2013 and 2020 versions of the show have the same plot engine: A group of comic book fans discover an unpublished manuscript for a graphic novel that they believe holds clues about the future; shadowy forces are also looking for the same manuscript, and eventually the comic book fans uncover a global conspiracy. So far, so run-of-the-mill.

But the nature of that conspiracy plays very differently in 2020 than it did in 2013, and the results are catastrophic. As the characters discover, the reason the comic book contains clues to things that haven’t yet happened is that it was drawn by one of the architects of a plan designed to stave off planetary collapse as the population rises and the fossil fuels run out. Here’s the plan:

1.     Convince the general public that there is an outbreak of a deadly new virus. To sell the story, poison or otherwise kill people, then attribute their deaths to the phony virus.

2.     Once the fake pandemic is up and running and the public is terrified, announce that there is a vaccine that can defeat the virus.

3.     With the help of global elites, NGOs, and world governments, inject everyone on the planet with this “vaccine,” as quickly as possible.

4.     Surprise! The vaccine is designed to permanently sterilize all or all but a certain percentage of the people who take it. Sit back and relax as the global population drops from 7.8 billion to about 500 million in a single generation, ushering in a new era of plenty.


You can probably see the problem here, and it’s an insurmountable one.

We are in the middle of an actual pandemic, a staggering number of Americans sincerely believe that that pandemic is a politically motivated hoax, and an equally staggering number believed vaccines were harmful years before COVID-19 emerged. It’s not the filmmakers’ fault we’re in this mess; it’s not their fault so much of the public is superstitious and gullible; and it won’t be their fault if Utopia gives some dumbass the confidence they need to quit wearing a mask and infect and kill you or the people you care about.


Make whatever art you like—the audience isn’t your problem! But if you’ve made something about a scrappy group of kids uncovering a giant conspiracy, and it turns out that in the time since you finished shooting, that exact conspiracy theory has suddenly revealed itself to be (A) believed by a significant portion of the population and (B) deadly, it might not be a bad idea to push the release date.

Even if everyone who sees Utopia is capable of distinguishing fact from fantasy—and that’s vanishingly unlikely in a nation that is sending QAnon followers to Congress—it’s impossible to enjoy a story where the heroes convince themselves that shadowy forces have manufactured a phony pandemic to trick people into taking a dangerous vaccine when those exact beliefs are helping to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans. Every time the Utopia kids uncover another piece of the conspiracy, it’s a new invitation to contemplate just how screwed we are. There’s nothing wrong with extending that invitation, but it’s better to do it intentionally, not as an accident of history.

If the country ever gets to the other side of this pandemic, there may come a time when Utopia can be appreciated for what it is: an inferior American copy of a pretty good British TV show. But 2020 is not that time.

--------------------------------

Similar plot lines to Dan Brown's Inferno, without the Comic-Con.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #920 on: September 29, 2020, 04:52:55 PM »
This is a fake problem, in that there is plenty of money in the world. It just needs to be distributed more equitably.

It's a real problem caused by people who choose to distribute the money in particular ways.

A single person like Buffett or Gates would be able to subsidize the majority of working Americans, but they do not do this.

"we" are blamed, but the truth is that the power is in the hands of the few.


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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #921 on: September 29, 2020, 05:10:10 PM »
The Mexican restaurant across the street from me has gone belly-up. Thought they were in good shape, at least till winter, as they have a large outdoor eating area.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #922 on: September 29, 2020, 07:32:46 PM »
The Mexican restaurant across the street from me has gone belly-up. Thought they were in good shape, at least till winter, as they have a large outdoor eating area.

15 million Americans are employed in the restaurant industry. The virus has been a disaster and many restaurants will fail.

wili

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #923 on: September 29, 2020, 08:23:00 PM »
Yeah, and add to that hotel workers and people (once) employed cleaning office buildings, both of which tend to be folks from Latin America or Asia. Worlds of pain out there.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

harpy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #924 on: September 29, 2020, 09:04:18 PM »
A single multi billionaire could easily subsidize all of their salaries indefinitely at their current rates.

The vacant hotels could also be used to shelter the homeless during the winter.


oren

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #925 on: September 29, 2020, 11:45:11 PM »
A single multi billionaire could easily subsidize all of their salaries indefinitely at their current rates.
Not that I am against it, but your math evades me.
15 million people at $15k per year amounts to $225 billion by my quick calculation.

Indefinitely? Nah. Maybe for one week, or a month.

Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #926 on: September 30, 2020, 05:11:23 AM »
A single multi billionaire could easily subsidize all of their salaries indefinitely at their current rates.

The vacant hotels could also be used to shelter the homeless during the winter.

The homeless in hotels wont work.

What would work is giving all homeless people or people in need enough money to pay rent and meet their needs via a welfare system.
Short term fixes do  nothing to fix anything.

The solution is give people money.... maybe a Universial Basic Income.... and homelessness would disappear rather rapidly as would many other problems.

But that isn't going to happen... and hotels for the homeless wont work either for anyone.

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #927 on: September 30, 2020, 05:39:36 AM »
Disney to lay off 28,000 employees as coronavirus slams its theme park business
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/29/disney-to-layoff-28000-employees-as-coronavirus-slams-theme-park-business.html

Disney will lay off 28,000 employees across its parks, experiences and consumer products segment.

The company blamed prolonged closures and capacity limits at open parks for the layoffs.

While Disney's theme parks in Florida, Paris, Shanghai, Japan and Hong Kong have been able to reopen with limited capacity, both California theme parks have remained shuttered.

... it's a small world after all
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #928 on: September 30, 2020, 12:41:52 PM »
Virus-Hit Shell Says Cutting Up to 9,000 Jobs By 2022
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-09-virus-hit-shell-jobs.html

Energy major Shell unleashed Wednesday a major restructuring to combat plunging oil prices driven by the coronavirus pandemic, warning it will also spark more asset writedowns in the third quarter.

Royal Dutch Shell said in a statement that it would axe between 7,000 and 9,000 positions by the end of 2022, of which 1,500 staff have already agreed to take voluntary redundancy this year.

The job cuts would amount to roughly 10 percent of Shell's total global workforce of 80,000 staff across more than 70 countries.

Shell's main British rival BP is axing around 10,000 jobs or 15 percent of its total workforce in response to the virus turmoil.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #929 on: October 01, 2020, 01:06:39 AM »
House delays vote on $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill to allow more time for talks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/coronavirus-stimulus-pelosi-mnuchin-fail-to-reach-relief-bill-deal.html
Quote
Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin fail to reach a coronavirus stimulus deal after meeting on Wednesday.
House Democrats delay a planned Wednesday night vote on their roughly $2.2 trillion relief package.
Earlier Wednesday, Pelosi and Mnuchin both sounded more optimistic about the prospect of reaching an agreement.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #930 on: October 01, 2020, 02:11:13 PM »
No, the Recession Isn’t Over—and It’s About to Get Much Worse for Some
https://time.com/5894969/the-recession-isnt-over/
Quote
For some, the looming loss of housing and food protections—in addition to the lack of a second stimulus check and the standstill in Congress over extending protections for payroll relief—is only going to make things harder. Worse, says Evermore, is that few in power seem to care. “Goodwill toward people who lost work through no fault of their own has dissipated faster during this recession,” she says, “than at any time in history.”

The COVID-19 recession is the most unequal in modern U.S. history
https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/09/30/the-covid-19-recession-is-the-most-unequal-in-modern-us-history/
Quote
No other recession in modern history has so pummeled society’s most vulnerable. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 caused similar job losses across the income spectrum as Wall Street bankers and other white-collar workers were handed pink slips alongside factory and restaurant workers. The 2001 recession was more unequal than the Great Recession: After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, travel and tourism jobs vanished and low-wage employment fell 7% below the previous year’s level, while high earners remained largely unscathed. Yet, even that inequality is a blip compared with what the coronavirus inflicted on low-wage workers this year.

Here comes the real recession
https://www.axios.com/recession-within-recession-coronavirus-0bcb2af4-4c1a-4ded-9579-096214c5b2d6.html
Quote
Economists are warning that the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic is now creating another recession: mass job losses, business failures and declines in spending even in industries not directly impacted by the virus.

Why it matters: The looming recession — a possible recession within a recession — is less severe than the coronavirus-driven downturn. But it's more likely to permanently push millions out of the labor force, lower wages and leave long-lasting scars on the economy.

David Rosenberg: We’re in a depression, not recession — and the scars will take years to heal
https://financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-were-in-a-depression-not-recession-and-the-scars-will-take-years-to-heal
Quote
Tally up those sectors and they supported 32 million jobs before the crisis, or about a third of the private-sector workforce, and it looks to me as though half of their workers are not going back to their old jobs. I’m not sure many people understand that amusement parks, airlines, hoteliers and restaurants cannot stay in business at 50-per-cent capacity (or even 75 per cent in the case of restaurants).


Quote
We are in a depression — not a recession, but a depression. The dynamics of a depression are different than they are in a recession because depressions invoke a secular change in behavior. Classic business cycle recessions are forgotten about within a year after they end. The scars from this one will take years to heal.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #931 on: October 02, 2020, 10:26:20 PM »


Five luxury cruise ships are broken down for scrap metal at the Aliaga ship recycling port in Izmir, Turkey. With the global coronavirus pandemic pushing the multi-billion dollar cruise industry into crisis, some cruise operators have been forced to cut losses and retire ships earlier than planned.
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #932 on: October 03, 2020, 01:40:38 AM »
Economics in Brief: The Covid-19 Recession is the Most Unequal in Modern U.S. History
https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/covid-19-recession-is-the-most-unequal-in-modern-us-history
Quote
Much like the disparate health effects of the coronavirus, employment recovery is spread unevenly among Americans. In fact, the pandemic-induced economic collapse in the U.S. has precipitated the most unequal recovery in modern U.S. history, reports the Washington Post. While the nation as a whole has recovered almost half of the total 10 percent of lost jobs between February and April, key demographics are recovering at an unequal pace.

EDIT:
The first female recession threatens to wipe out decades of progress for U.S. women
https://fusion.inquirer.com/business/women-unemployment-pandemic-jobs-loss-economy-20201001.html
Quote
“We just cannot get out of this — the hole that we’re in — in any reasonable way, without doing huge scarring, without a much stronger care infrastructure,” said Heidi Shierholz, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2020, 01:51:47 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #933 on: October 03, 2020, 12:58:26 PM »
The Pandemic Depression Is Over. The Pandemic Recession Has Just Begun.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/upshot/pandemic-economy-recession.html
Quote
That implies that even as public health restrictions loosen and as vaccines get closer, the overall economy is not poised for a quick snapback to pre-pandemic levels. Rather, scarring is taking place across a much wider range of sectors than the simple narrative of shutdown versus reopening suggests.

When the economy does get back to full health, many jobs will no longer exist, and American workers will need to find other types of work — and historically, those kinds of readjustments take time.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #934 on: October 03, 2020, 09:16:01 PM »
Bloomberg: Japan’s unemployment rate ticked up to a three-year high in August as the coronavirus continued to weigh on the labor market.
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1311836910193696768

——
Geneva adopts what's believed to be the highest minimum wage in the world, at $25 an hour
Quote
According to government data, 58% of voters in the canton were in favor of the initiative set the minimum wage at 23 Swiss francs an hour, which was backed by a coalition of labor unions and aimed at "fighting poverty, favoring social integration, and contributing to the respect of human dignity."
...
While a $25 per hour minimum wage might look staggering from a US perspective, where the federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, context is key.

Geneva is the 10th most expensive city in the world
according to The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2020 Worldwide Cost of Living Survey. The roughly 4,000 Swiss francs workers will now earn put them slightly above the poverty line of 3,968 Swiss francs for a household of two adults and two children under 14, as estimated by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office in 2018.

Switzerland is among the wealthiest nations in the world, but it wasn't shielded from the damaging impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its economy.
...

Mile-long lines at free food distributions in Geneva made headlines worldwide, and they continue to take place, according to Charlemagne Hernandez, the co-founder of Caravane De Solidarité, an activist group in Geneva that has been organizing these distributions throughout the pandemic.

Hernandez told CNN his group helped an estimated 6,000 to 9,000 people each week during the pandemic, distributing bags of fresh produce and dry goods sourced mostly through donations.

Hernandez said he believes the adoption of the minimum wage initiative in Geneva was "necessary," as unemployment represents an existential threat for so many low income workers in the city. "It will boil down to not having enough to eat," he said.

Geneva is known as the humanitarian capital of the world due to the presence of so many international organizations and UN offices focusing on humanitarian affairs. Hernandez said solidarity in the city "is much stronger these days than usual," as people respond to calls for donations in great numbers, helping the food distributions to continue. ...
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/geneva-introduces-minimum-wage-25-122559146.html
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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #935 on: October 05, 2020, 12:57:04 PM »
Here’s how U.S. workers can adapt following the coronavirus recession
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/04/heres-how-us-workers-should-adapt-ollowing-recession-according-to-danielle-dimartino-booth-.html
Quote
Workers should start thinking about how to reinvent themselves following the recession, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth.
She also warned about the danger of skills atrophying during a period of unemployment.

Q&A: The coronavirus recession could do long-term damage to California’s economy but there’s one glimmer of hope
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/04/qa-the-coronavirus-recession-could-do-long-term-damage-to-californias-economy-but-theres-one-glimmer-of-hope/
Quote
There is certainly opportunity in every crisis including this one. And so I think to the extent that it shines a spotlight on the unfinished business that was there before this crisis hit and makes that unfinished business less acceptable to ignore, I think that’s my hope, that things that would have otherwise been papered over, as you said, for who knows how much longer, this shines a spotlight on the urgency of taking care of that.

U.S. exporters struggle to gain ground as global recession remains severe
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/04/exporter-coronavirus-global-recession/
Quote
Swollen trade deficit defies White House’s promises of improvement
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #936 on: October 06, 2020, 12:47:21 PM »
A devastating experience:' Temporary layoffs just became permanent for millions of American workers
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/04/business/unemployed-workers-permanent-job-losses/index.html
video
By Chris Isidore, CNN Business

Updated 9:12 AM ET, Mon October 5, 2020

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #937 on: October 06, 2020, 12:52:00 PM »
Euro zone economic recovery in danger as COVID-19 resurgence hits service industries
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-pmi/euro-zone-economic-recovery-in-danger-as-covid-19-resurgence-hits-service-industries-idUSKBN26Q0ZC?il=0
Quote
The euro zone’s economic recovery faltered in September with growing evidence sectors and countries in the bloc are diverging as a resurgence of the coronavirus forces the reimposition of restrictions on activity.

Furloughed Jobs Disguise The Eurozone Employment Crisis
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/furloughed-jobs-disguise-the-eurozone-employment-crisis/
Quote
In Europe, according to Eurostat, the unemployment rate increased to 7.4% in August, while in the euro area it rose to 8.1%. However, more than 10 million workers remain in furloughed jobs, making the comparison with the United States, that does not have that scheme of subsidized unemployment, a challenge.

In similar terms, the Eurozone unemployment would be close to 11% if we used the same calculation as the United States. The OECD estimates that unemployment will rise above 10% in the eurozone before year-end as furlough schemes end.

Workers Face Permanent Job Losses as the Virus Persists
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/business/economy/coronavirus-permanent-job-losses.html
Quote
The United States economy is facing a tidal wave of long-term unemployment as millions of people who lost jobs early in the pandemic remain out of work six months later and job losses increasingly turn permanent.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #938 on: October 08, 2020, 12:47:24 AM »
Roughly 37 Million Americans Aren’t Making Student Loan Payments
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/less-than-11-of-people-with-federal-student-debt-are-repaying-their-loans-during-covid-19/ar-BB19Ne6x

Millions of Americans with federal student loans have stopped paying down that debt during the coronavirus pandemic.

Less than 11% of people with such loans have continued repaying them in recent months, according to data analyzed by higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

That means about 37 million borrowers are taking advantage of a federal measure that has allowed borrowers to pause payments through the end of the year without the accrual of interest. For many, the situation has freed up money for basic essentials and offered a window into what life would be like without education debt.

The average balance is around $30,000, up from $10,000 in the early 1990s, but many borrowers owe $100,000 or more. The typical monthly payment is $400.

U.S. Department of Education press secretary Angela Morabito said that while "the vast majority of our loan portfolio is currently in forbearance," borrowers made nearly $6.2 billion in federal student loan payments in May, June and July. Still, that's a fraction of the outstanding $1.6 trillion U.S. student loan balance.

-----------------------------------

Further Student Loan And Unemployment Relief In Doubt After Trump Stops All Stimulus Negotiations
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2020/10/06/further-student-loan-relief-in-doubt-after-trump-stops-all-stimulus-negotiations/
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The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #939 on: October 08, 2020, 05:45:54 PM »
Are you surprised?  The coronavirus aid, relief, and economic security act suspended student loan payments, interest and collections on defaulted loans.  The deadline has been extended twice, and is currently out to the end of the year.  Under such a scenario, the fore mentioned decrease is entirely expected.  I am surprised that so many are continuing to pay anything at all. 

The Walrus

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #940 on: October 08, 2020, 05:55:20 PM »
The Pandemic Depression Is Over. The Pandemic Recession Has Just Begun.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/upshot/pandemic-economy-recession.html
Quote
That implies that even as public health restrictions loosen and as vaccines get closer, the overall economy is not poised for a quick snapback to pre-pandemic levels. Rather, scarring is taking place across a much wider range of sectors than the simple narrative of shutdown versus reopening suggests.

When the economy does get back to full health, many jobs will no longer exist, and American workers will need to find other types of work — and historically, those kinds of readjustments take time.

There never was a depression.  That fearmongering was just such.  The economy is currently attached to the virus, and will rebound when the virus is under control.

Many workers have already returned to work.  The unemployment rate has fallen to 7.9%, lower than at any point during Obama's first term.  That rate has fallen dramatically since April, when the shutdown occurred.  At the current rate, we may approach pre-pandemic levels within a year.  Yes, many pre-pandemic jobs have been lost, and will not return.  However, new jobs have been created to accommodate the needs of the pandemic and shutdown.  As opposed to previous recession, in which jobs were lost slower and recovered slower, this one appears to be faster on both ends.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #941 on: October 09, 2020, 04:03:01 PM »
How Have American Billionaires Gotten Richer Despite Pandemic Recession?
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/08/921782096/how-have-american-billionaires-gotten-richer-despite-pandemic-recession
Quote
Since the pandemic began, many American billionaires have gotten even richer despite one of the country's worst recessions. NPR explores the reasons why and the implications for the future.

It’s not a recession, it’s a “she”-session
https://www.kold.com/2020/10/08/its-not-recession-its-she-session/
Quote
There are a variety of reasons for the split between the sexes.
First of all, women are frequently employed in the service industry, specifically hospitality, which is experiencing a 40% unemployment rate right now.
Also, women generally take care of the children, which means going back to work requires child care services.
Those services are nearly impossible to find right now and if they are found, they’re expensive.

Why it feels like we’re in a recession—even though we aren’t
https://fortune.com/2020/10/06/are-we-in-a-recession-covid-us-economy-update-unemployment/
Quote
Recovery? Solid pace? With the latest week’s initial unemployment claims still more than three times greater than just before the pandemic? What planet’s data is the Fed looking at?
In fact, Powell is right—and so are the rest of us. Understanding how economists talk helps explain why they say there’s no recession and why ordinary civilians feel as if we’re in a bad one.

From Recession To An Ever-Deeper One
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2020/10/09/from-recession-to-an-ever-deeper-one/#69f89e4a2f41
Quote
Economists who expected a quick recovery from this recession have been revising their forecasts. Mounting evidence suggests the May/June bounce was just that—a bounce, and not a return to prior trends.

Rising COVID cases will stall UK recovery, budget watchdog warns
https://wkzo.com/2020/10/08/rising-covid-cases-will-stall-uk-recovery-budget-watchdog-warns/
Quote
LONDON (Reuters) - A sharp rise in coronavirus cases is likely to cause Britain's economic recovery to stall until the resurgence comes under control, the country's budget watchdog said on Wednesday.

My Mac has been working pretty good lately, so I've been able to post multiple links without it locking up (mostly). Do your good luck ritual for this to keep on.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #942 on: October 12, 2020, 08:06:34 PM »
COVID-19 to Add as Many as 150 Million Extreme Poor by 2021
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/07/covid-19-to-add-as-many-as-150-million-extreme-poor-by-2021
Quote
The convergence of the COVID-19 pandemic with the pressures of conflict and climate change will put the goal of ending poverty by 2030 beyond reach without swift, significant and substantial policy action, the World Bank said. By 2030, the global poverty rate could be about 7%.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2020, 10:25:38 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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wili

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #943 on: October 12, 2020, 09:31:59 PM »
zerohedge is rated a LOW reliability, conspiracy/pseudoscience site. Why use that as a source for anything. If it is an actual story, you could probably find it from more reliable sites, and in doing so, you would not get the reputation as someone who posts a lot of things from pseudoscience sites on this very NON-pseudo-science site...

just sayin'

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/zero-hedge/
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kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #944 on: October 12, 2020, 10:39:09 PM »
I agree. If ZH is your only gateway to the info just use the article they go from.
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harpy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #945 on: October 13, 2020, 05:36:32 PM »
Well, let's just do a simple comparison.

Browse the headlines of Zerohedge and compare that to the feces from NYTIMES, economist, or any of the other newsrags available.

Personally, I just see different styles of headlines.  For example, mainstream newsrags tend to obsess about corporate earnings, nuanced politics, etc etc. 

Overall, the format of ZH is not appealing, and the site reads like a blog, BUT they do cite sources and focus on important subjects.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 05:41:40 PM by harpy »

SteveMDFP

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #946 on: October 13, 2020, 07:25:16 PM »
Well, let's just do a simple comparison.

Browse the headlines of Zerohedge and compare that to the feces from NYTIMES, economist, or any of the other newsrags available.

Personally, I just see different styles of headlines.  For example, mainstream newsrags tend to obsess about corporate earnings, nuanced politics, etc etc. 

Overall, the format of ZH is not appealing, and the site reads like a blog, BUT they do cite sources and focus on important subjects.

A bit more critical thinking is merited here.  The reputable news sources are platforms that publish work signed by professional, reputable journalists.  If they misinform, their personal careers are on the line.

ZeroHedge routinely publishes pieces under pseudonyms, where nobody is accountable for lies, distortion, or bias.  One such is "Tyler Durden."  Here's what Business Insider says about this pseudonym:

"Tyler Durden is a reference to the lead character in Fight Club. It's the pseudonym for Zero Hedge's key author(s) used to hide their identities."
 
This isn't journalism, it's pure unadulterated clickbait crap.

harpy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #947 on: October 13, 2020, 07:44:15 PM »
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A bit more critical thinking is merited here.  The reputable news sources are platforms that publish work signed by professional, reputable journalists.  If they misinform, their personal careers are on the line.

ZeroHedge routinely publishes pieces under pseudonyms, where nobody is accountable for lies, distortion, or bias.  One such is "Tyler Durden."  Here's what Business Insider says about this pseudonym:

That goes both ways.  When authors hide behind pseudonyms, they are also free to publish unpopular, controversial subjects that are taboo in mainstream newsrags.

I would tend to agree it's a clickbait site.  However, some of the referenced articles are interesting and are written by reputable personalities. 

For example, here's Peter Schiff's take on the current economy. 

Peter's articles are posted on ZH frequently, see his bio:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff

This is not available on any mainstream newsrag.  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-best-times-during-worst-times

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Cultural changes that have already taken hold may mean that office towers, retail chains, and theaters may never recover. People and companies are becoming more comfortable with working from home, shopping online, and avoiding crowds. According to an article on Bloomberg on August 23, Goldman Sachs now anticipates that almost a quarter of the 22 million temporary layoffs that began with the first shutdown in March will become permanent. Some 2 million of those individuals could remain unemployed well into 2021.  But these near-term problems may be just the beginning.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 08:32:59 PM by harpy »

kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #948 on: October 13, 2020, 08:50:52 PM »
They are a secondary source. If there is anything interesting then it is from some other source so you might as well skip to the source (which possibly put an effort into it etc).
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #949 on: October 14, 2020, 12:54:26 PM »
States See $31 Billion of Taxes Disappear Due to Covid Recession
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/states-see-31-billion-taxes-215823234.html
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(Bloomberg) -- U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6%, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to a data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

Frankly I am surprised the damage is so slight.
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