Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences

[Paddy]

A further analysis of the impact on life expectancy:

https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/200917_-_Covid-19_and_life_expectancy_.html

This is rather more in depth than the back of an imaginary envelope calculation that I posted further up in the thread, but what it adds up to is that the extent of COVID's impact on life expectancy obviously depends on how many people catch it, but it could be as much as 7 to 9 years in Western Europe and North America if 50% of people catch it.

[Tom_Mazanec]

After two lost decades, U.S.'s weakest local economies may face worse from pandemic
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-distress/after-two-lost-decades-u-s-s-weakest-local-economies-may-face-worse-from-pandemic-idUSKBN26Z15X

From 2000 through February 2020, the United States went through two recessions, one of them deep, but also had its longest measured period of uninterrupted growth.

It did little to change the economic landscape, with roughly two-thirds of zip codes remaining in the same category in which they started. With a third recession sparked by the pandemic now underway, the divide may grow deeper.

“All of the gains have gone to higher tiers,” said EIG research director Kenan Fikri. “We have a chronic tail of distressed communities.”

[Tom_Mazanec]

Can someone tell me if the 2020 unemployment rate is measured the same as the 1930 unemployment rate? Are these comparisons valid, when they say it was, say 25% then and 8% now? If not, when was the system changed?

[kassy]

Well i don´t really know how they counted unemployment in the 1930s but assuming they simply counted it the numbers are not the same.

For unemployment they exclude some groups nowadays like people not actively looking for a job.
Not sure if they count people wanting to work more hours if they have some job.

Search for us official unemployment vs real unemployment if you are interested in details.

[Shared Humanity]

Can someone tell me if the 2020 unemployment rate is measured the same as the 1930 unemployment rate? Are these comparisons valid, when they say it was, say 25% then and 8% now? If not, when was the system changed?

Unemployment rates are not a valid measure...ever. In the U.S., it is better to look at employment participation rates, the percentage of persons of employment age who are working.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate

Even this measure can be deceiving as it does not differentiate between someone working a full time job with a decent salary from someone working two part time minimum wage jobs. It is best then to also look at earnings numbers.

If you look at the participation rate chart, you can see the long term slump that has occurred over the last couple of decades. Trust me. The labor force participation rate is not declining because people are choosing not to work. Add to this the drop in hourly wages and you begin to understand how devastating this economy has been for ordinary Americans.

[The Walrus]

Can someone tell me if the 2020 unemployment rate is measured the same as the 1930 unemployment rate? Are these comparisons valid, when they say it was, say 25% then and 8% now? If not, when was the system changed?

The short answer is no.  However, many economists have tried to correlate the unemployment during the great depression to current measures.  The 25% figures are those correlations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-04/this-is-bad-but-it-s-not-looking-like-the-depression-quicktake

[Tom_Mazanec]

Recession 2020: What will happen to the cost of living?
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/how-will-recession-affect-cost-of-living-201137039.html

While newly-implemented income tax measures in this year’s Budget will go some way to assist with cost-of-living pressures, believe it or not, we could actually expect the cost of living in Australia to go up.

Why?

Call it the ’coronavirus tax’.

Aussies hoarding necessities such as toilet paper, dry food and hand sanitiser has driven Australia’s inflation on some products to record highs.

Economist: 2021 recession likely, presidential election will determine rate of economic growth
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2020/10/15/recession-likely-ahead-in-2021.html

The national economy is slowing down and could enter into a recession next year due to the "disorienting, distracting and dizzying" events of 2020, the chief global economist for the The Economic Outlook Group said on Thursday.

Even if there is an effective vaccine for Covid-19 by the middle of 2021, if the United States does not pass another large stimulus bill, the probability of a recession in 2021 is 50%, Bernard Baumohl said during his keynote address, which was given virtually at the Phoenix Business Journal’s 2021 Economic Forecast, sponsored by the Salt River Project.

A recession is almost certain — 90% likely — if there is no effective vaccine until late 2021 or early 2022 and there is no comprehensive stimulus bill, he said.

GLOBAL ECONOMY STILL IN RECESSION; THIS YEAR’S CONTRACTION LESS THAN ANTICIPATED, BUT RISKS REMAIN
https://www2.staffingindustry.com/site/Editorial/Daily-News/Global-economy-still-in-recession-this-year-s-contraction-less-than-anticipated-but-risks-remain-55449

The International Monetary Fund now projects the global economy to shrink 4.4% this year, according to its World Economic Outlook report. The globe remains in a recession, but the projected decline in economic growth is less severe than an earlier projection in June.

Worst recession since Great Depression, says World Bank
https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/business/worst-recession-since-great-depression-says-world-bank-156574

The world is experiencing one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression in the 1930s owing to the novel coronavirus, World Bank President David Malpass has said, terming the Covid pandemic a “catastrophic event” for many developing and the poorest countries. He said given the extent of the economic contraction, there was a rising risk of disruptive debt crises in countries.

The government must wake up to the fact the Covid recession has hurt Australian women more
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/oct/13/the-government-must-wake-up-to-the-fact-the-covid-recession-has-hurt-australian-women-more

Trumpeting infrastructure is all well and good, but it is a strategy suited to defeating the 1990s recession, not the one we face now

Faces of the Coronavirus Recession: How the downturn is affecting lives and votes in Ohio (this hits home for me)
https://www.cincinnati.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/14/coronavirus-recession-impact-greater-cincinnati-ohio-economy/3461330001/

WHO: Basak Durgun, 36, Walnut Hills
JOB: Former visiting professor at Miami University 
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? She lost her job in April.

WHO: Brad Horn, 35, Whitewater Township
JOB: Former machine operator at manufacturer GE Aviation
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was furloughed, then laid off in April.

WHO: Lauren Anderson, 61, Hyde Park
JOB: Owner of marketing and branding firm The Creative Department
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? She was forced to lay off two employees and one contractor.

WHO: Robert Richardson, 38, West Price Hill
JOB: Security supervisor for a logistics company 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? Despite a recent promotion, he’s struggling to get enough hours.

WHO: Jose Salazar, 46, Columbia Tusculum
JOB: Chef and owner of three restaurants: Salazar’s, Mita’s and Goose & Elder 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? The pandemic forced him to temporarily shut down two of his three restaurants and lay off most of his staff. His sales still haven’t recovered.

WHO: Jackie Davis, 34, Cheviot
JOB: Nurses aide in a nursing home 
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Her hours are beginning to shrink as jobs in her field get cut.

WHO: AJ Penley, 24, Mount Washington
JOB: Previously a personal trainer and now working at Kroger
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He lost fitness clients, then his job in March. Later, he took a supermarket job.

WHO: Ken Batchelor, 65, Lawrenceburg
JOB: Meat cutter at Kroger (recently retired) 
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was making extra money until COVID-19 hospitalized him and left him with medical bills.

WHO: Ben Shipp, 26, Dry Ridge, Kentucky
JOB: Former intern for guest services at Disney World’s Animal Kingdom
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? He was laid off in March.

WHO: Jayme Johns, 23, moving back to Charlotte, North Carolina
JOB: Flight attendant for PSA Airlines, an American Airlines regional carrier   
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Schedule cutbacks kept her from securing a regular service route and she expects to lose her job.

WHO: Martin Pittman, 52, Pleasant Ridge
JOB: General manager at The Summit hotel, Madisonville
HOW WAS HE AFFECTED? The pandemic closed his hotel, forced layoffs and has left bookings at a fraction of normal.

WHO: Kim Delaney, 41, Independence
JOB: Auto rental worker at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport
HOW WAS SHE AFFECTED? Laid off in spring, she was recalled in September with a less flexible schedule.

COVID-19 Induces Deep Global Recession for 2020, Says IMF
https://www.voanews.com/economy-business/covid-19-induces-deep-global-recession-2020-says-imf

The International Monetary Fund is projecting a deep global recession in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, with global economies expected to shrink by 4.4%. 

Speaking Tuesday at the IMF's World Economic Outlook Forum in Boston, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said the pandemic shut down business and industry throughout the world. 

While most economies reopened, prompting the IMF to improve its current forecast to somewhat over its June prediction, Gopinath said resurgences of the virus and other political uncertainties suggest the global economic recovery will be slow and uneven well into 2021.

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.
Federal budget deficit hits $3.1 trillion, more than double the previous record
It is the government's largest annual shortfall, surpassing the previous record of $1.4 trillion set in 2009 after the financial crisis.
The Associated Press
Oct. 16, 2020

The federal budget deficit hit an all-time high of $3.1 trillion in the 2020 budget year, more than double the previous record, as the coronavirus pandemic shrank revenues and sent spending soaring.

The Trump administration reported Friday that the deficit for the budget year that ended on Sept. 30 was three times the size of last year's deficit of $984 billion. It was also $2 trillion higher than the administration had estimated in February, before the pandemic hit.

It was the government's largest annual shortfall in dollar terms, surpassing the previous record of $1.4 trillion set in 2009. At that time, the Obama administration was spending heavily to shore up the nation's banking system and limit the economic damage from the 2008 financial crisis.

The 2020 deficit, in terms of its relationship to the economy, represented 15.2 percent of total gross domestic product, the sum of all the goods and services produced by the country. That was the highest level since 1945, when the U.S. was borrowing heavily to finance World War II. ...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/federal-budget-deficit-hits-3-1-trillion-more-double-previous-n1243765

[Tom_Mazanec]

Sigmetnow:
Here is a forecast for 2024. Keep in mind that such forecasts tend to be overly conservative:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

National debt ~48 trillion, debt to GDP ratio 181.86%, Budget deficit over 5 1/2 Trillion.

[Tom_Mazanec]

The Real Recession Is Just Starting
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/10/18/the-real-recession-is-just-starting/#451461387006

Conclusions

Don’t be fooled by the retail sales data or the talk of the return of inflation;
Don’t hold your breath for or hold out cash in anticipation of rising interest rates;
The economy is in Recession; we just haven’t felt it because of the CARES Act stimulus, but, eventually we will because we have a huge, huge unemployment problem;
And then there is the oncoming eviction crisis (on hold until year’s end); there hasn’t been much discussion about this, and I wonder if it is priced into financial markets;
The CARES Act stimulus has covered up the Recession, and another stimulus, post-election, may further kick the can down the road, but free cash cannot go on forever without dire consequences;
·The Recession will persist as long as the virus persists (and we seem to be entering into a second, resurgent phase). A vaccine would help, but getting enough people to take it (providing herd immunity) and then returning to pre-virus behavior may take years, not quarters.

Recession 2020: Everything you need to know
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-2020-everything-you-need-to-know-204323390.html

Will the coronavirus recession be worse than 2008?
Yes.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) director-general Robert Azevedo said in March this year that projections show the economic downturn and job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic will be worse than the 2008 recession.

“This pandemic will inevitably have an enormous impact on the economy,” Azevedo said.

“Recent projections predict an economic downturn and job losses that are worse than the global financial crisis a dozen years ago.”

For Australia, the coronavirus recession will certainly be worse than in 2008 given our economy all but escaped any extreme effects felt by the 2008 global financial crisis with most impact felt overseas.

What will the coronavirus recession look like?

Businesses will continue to fold as they are unable to withstand the financial ruin facing them as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

And we’ll continue to see jobs lost.

Paying rent, phone, internet, utility bills and even a mortgage will become more of a struggle and so bills will go unpaid.

With less income, household spending will drop further.

And then the vicious cycle continues: consumers who are less willing to spend means more and more businesses will struggle, and it goes on.

And of course, the property market suddenly finds fewer buyers, meaning house values drop.

Global stock markets have also been volatile for the last few weeks, and investors saw several days where hundreds of billions of dollars were wiped off every time – and we don’t seem to have reached the bottom yet.

While Australia’s economy wasn’t in the strongest standing to begin with, the reason behind most business closures are circumstantial and specific to the virus.

The Morrison government has so far announced two stimulus packages totalling $83.6 billion, to cushion the economic blow on individuals and businesses impacted by the stringent restrictions implemented to curb further spread of the virus and aid our economic recovery.

The government will spend a combined $22.9 billion on income safety nets of $550 per fortnight for those who have lost their jobs, sole traders and casuals and a $750 one-off supplement for those on certain welfare, pension and concession payments.

Australia’s banks have also thrown a $100 billion lifeline, which will pause mortgage repayments until next year for Aussies who have fallen into financial hardship as a result of Covid-19.

Australia’s economic recovery is now largely in the government’s hands, and it will be “critically important” that the government minimises the economic fallout, economist Stephen Koukoulas said.

“It does this by pumping money into the economy, making it easy to get social security payments so people can survive. It is why policies are needed to see the economy as strong as possible to reduce the human costs of high unemployment.”

It’s just a matter of waiting for the virus to come and go.

There’s no hiding Brexit impact in coronavirus recession
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-coronavirus-uk-recession-economy-there-is-no-hiding/

LONDON — There are now 72 days until the U.K. leaves the transition period with the EU. Regardless of whether a deal is reached or not, this will mean a sharp change in trading terms between the two sides — and in the midst of a resurgent global pandemic.

Few people have considered how the two will interplay and what that will mean for businesses on the ground trying to deal with both.

IMF: Nearly all Mideast economies hit by recession
https://www.lewistownsentinel.com/news/business/2020/10/imf-nearly-all-mideast-economies-hit-by-recession/

The coronavirus pandemic has pushed nearly all Mideast nations into the throes of an economic recession this year, yet some rebound is expected as all but two — Lebanon and Oman — are anticipated to see some level of economic growth next year, according to a report published Monday by the International Monetary Fund.


This comes as the IMF estimates that the global economy will shrink 4.4% this year, marking the worst annual plunge since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

[The Walrus]

Sigmetnow:
Here is a forecast for 2024. Keep in mind that such forecasts tend to be overly conservative:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

National debt ~48 trillion, debt to GDP ratio 181.86%, Budget deficit over 5 1/2 Trillion.

Here is another conservative forecast which places the budget deficit in 2024 at slightly over 1 1/2 trillion. 

[Tom_Mazanec]

How the coronavirus is exacerbating global inequality, hunger
https://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2020/How-the-coronavirus-is-exacerbating-global-inequality-hunger.htm

Whereas previous recessions were fairly even in terms of who was affected, in this recession, the top 25% has bounced back completely, while the bottom 2% has been smacked hard. The reason is simple: working from home. Bankers, lawyers, accountants, academics, and scores of other white collar workers, have been able to work remotely. The work environment may have changed, but they got to keep their jobs. Those employed in restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, etc. haven’t been so lucky. Their jobs have disappeared, and won’t be coming back anytime soon, especially now that we’re in the second wave.

That is what makes this pandemic so tragic – many have been badly affected, but depending on where you sit on the social spectrum, you may not have noticed. Zakaria makes a great point: “Has the relative normalcy of life for the elites prevented us from understanding the true severity of the problem? For tens of millions in America, and for hundreds of millions around the world, this is the Great Depression.”

[The Walrus]

It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours." - Harry Truman.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Over half Europe's small firms fear for survival, survey finds
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-economy-smallbusiness-idUKKBN27709T

LONDON (Reuters) - Over half the small and medium-sized companies which together provide jobs for two-thirds of European workers fear for their survival in the coming 12 months, according to a survey released by management consultancy McKinsey on Thursday.

The real cause of the coronavirus recession
https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart-with-kai-and-molly/the-real-cause-of-the-coronavirus-recession/

Iowa has never had a statewide mask mandate, and it lifted its few restrictions earlier than a lot of other states. But economic recovery has been slow, suggesting that this downturn is due more to individual choices than the lockdowns put in place by blue states, as some Republicans have suggested. Today, we’ll talk about a case study around Iowa in The New York Times. Plus: Elon Musk, infosec and Kiss.

RELEASE: CAP Brief Finds This Is the First Recession Where Women Have Lost More Jobs Than Men
https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release/2020/10/22/492164/release-cap-brief-finds-first-recession-women-lost-jobs-men/

Washington, D.C. — A new issue brief from the Center for American Progress finds that the coronavirus recession is the first recession since the advent of modern U.S. employment statistics for women in which women have lost more jobs than men, leading some to refer to this recession as a “she-cession.” While in every previous recession on record, women lost less than one job for every job that men lost, between February and April, women lost more than 12.1 million jobs while men lost just more than 10 million. There is also evidence that many of these job losses will be long-lasting. The last time women’s employment-to-population ratio was this low was in 1986. Following that low, it took nearly a decade for women’s employment rates to reach pre-recession levels.

Women of color have lost their jobs at higher rates than their white counterparts. Black women’s employment fell 18.2 percent from its peak compared with 16.7 percent for white women. Asian American women have gone from having the lowest unemployment rate in February at 3 percent—tied with white women—to 15.9 percent at peak unemployment. Latina women have also experienced dramatic employment and labor force declines, with job losses out of phase with the rest of the recovery.

The Recession Is Over, But Don't Get Too Excited
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4380902-recession-is-over-dont-get-too-excited

With record economic growth and hiring this summer, we may soon learn that the recession is already technically over.

But the end of the recession doesn’t mean the economy has recovered, only that the worst is behind us in terms of lost economic output, income, and jobs.

Expect the recovery in GDP to take another year, while regaining the lost jobs to take closer to two years. Getting back to the former trajectory will take longer still.

Investors should be mindful that the path forward will be slow and uneven, even after the recession is declared to be over.

COVID-19 crisis to speed up depletion of Social Security
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/22/covid-19-crisis-to-speed-up-depletion-of-social-security-funds

US retirement and disability trust funds could run dry as early as 2029 and 2023, respectively, a bipartisan research group warns.

I'm on disability

[Tom_Mazanec]

Asia suffering 'worst recession in living memory'
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54626025

Growth forecasts for the region have been downgraded again, this time from -1.6% to -2.2% for this year.

However, the glimmer of hope is for a bounceback of almost 7% next year, according to the IMF.

China will play a big part in the region's growth next year, with its latest data showing continued recovery from the downturn caused by the virus.

But there are still many black clouds on the horizon as countries, including India, the Philippines and Malaysia, continue to battle with Covid-19 infections.

ECB Seen Preparing More Aid as Virus Spread Derails Economy
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-seen-preparing-more-aid-040010902.html

Surging coronavirus infections and renewed lockdowns will prompt the European Central Bank to step up monetary stimulus later this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Respondents predict 500 billion euros ($590 billion) will be added to the 1.35 trillion-euro pandemic bond-buying program, with most anticipating action in December. The Governing Council will probably keep policy unchanged when it meets on Thursday to discuss the economic damage, though some analysts expect President Christine Lagarde to signal that more support is on the way.

With governments forced to restrict travel, close restaurants and impose curfews to contain the pandemic, the euro area’s recovery is already flagging, raising the specter of a double-dip recession. Lagarde has said the pickup in infections came sooner than expected, presenting a clear risk to the economic outlook.

Double Dip Recession Tweets of the Day
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/double-dip-recession-tweets-of-the-day

The Covid recession isn't even over yet, but there is already talk of a double dip coming.

Numerous tweets.

Long-term unemployment spikes for millions of Americans. Aid that’s kept them afloat may end soon
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/long-term-unemployment-is-increasing-as-relief-is-running-out.html

It’s been more than seven months since the coronavirus pandemic hit, leading to sweeping shelter in place orders in March that put millions of Americans out of work. While some of those laid off due to shutdowns have been able to return to their jobs, permanent unemployment has increased.

In September, long-term unemployment, or those that have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, jumped to 2.4 million, the highest thus far in the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly 800,000 out of work Americans moved into the long-term unemployed category from August to September, the largest month-over-month increase ever, according to Michele Evermore, senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.

At the same time, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26 weeks was nearly 5 million in September.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Next Up: Global Depression
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/10/next-up-global-depression.html

1. History offers a basic template for viral pandemics in which the initial wave dies back in summer and then re-ignites in a second larger Wave 2 in autumn and winter.

2. Humanity's default responses to novel crises: denial, fantasy, magical thinking and manipulating data to support a simplistic, emotionally satisfying ideological position.

Doug Casey on Why the 2020s Will Likely Be the Most Turbulent Decade in 250 Years
https://internationalman.com/articles/doug-casey-on-why-the-2020s-will-likely-be-the-most-turbulent-decade/

So what’s going to happen?

People appear to want leaders—to be told what to do. They’ve been programmed to be irresponsible and to believe that somebody else—the State—is going to take care of them.

The average citizen of every country has become much less responsible as the State has grown much, much larger over the last century.

With that being the case, when there are problems, people are going to look for a strong leader—and they’re going to get strong leaders. It’s true all over the world. We already see this with Narendra Modi in India, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China, Erdogan in Turkey, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Fernandez in Argentina, and more.

Countries everywhere are going towards so-called strong leadership. It’s shaping up like the ’30s with Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Roosevelt, and the rest of them.

As the situation gets completely out of control, people are going to look for dictatorial leaders to provide direction and safety. This decade is probably going to be the most dangerous since the Industrial Revolution overturned the basis of society over 200 years ago.

No end in sight for record-high public debt fueled by COVID-19
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/No-end-in-sight-for-record-high-public-debt-fueled-by-COVID-19

TOKYO -- Countries around the world have expanded fiscal expenditure due to the coronavirus pandemic, causing public debt to balloon to unprecedented levels. The debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of advanced economies in 2021 will reach a record high of 125%.

Recession risk grows as Covid-19 cases continue to surge
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

London (CNN Business)The world's top economies took huge steps in recent months to recover from the worst recession in a generation. Now, with coronavirus cases surging again, that progress could be reversed.

Pandemic recession: Economy rebounds slightly, unemployment still high
https://krcrtv.com/news/local/pandemic-recession-economy-rebounds-slightly-unemployment-still-high

Economists welcomed the declines as evidence that the job market is still recovering from the pandemic recession. But some cautioned that the improvement could prove short-lived. With confirmed infections having neared 60,000 in the past week, the most since July, consumers have been unable or reluctant to shop, travel, dine out or congregate in crowds -- a trend that has led some employers to keep cutting jobs. Several states are reporting a record number of hospitalizations from the virus.

"We doubt it will continue as COVID infections spread rapidly, pushing down demand for discretionary consumer services, especially in the hospitality sector," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the portion of the economy that includes hard-hit hotels, restaurants and bars.

[Sigmetnow]

Global Markets: Stocks slide on surging virus cases, stimulus doubts; dollar rises

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares fell across the globe on Monday as surging coronavirus cases in Europe and the United States clouded the world economic outlook, giving the dollar a safe-haven boost.
…
The United States, Russia and France set new daily records for coronavirus infections as a resurgence of the virus swelled across parts of the Northern Hemisphere, forcing some countries to impose new curbs.

The spreading pandemic, along with no clear progress on a U.S. stimulus package and caution ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election dragged the MSCI world equity index down.
…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 712.83 points, or 2.52%, to 27,622.74, the S&P 500 lost 73.34 points, or 2.12%, to 3,392.05 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 189.90 points, or 1.64%, to 11,358.38.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 1.72% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 1.69%.
Emerging market stocks lost 0.66%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.41% lower, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.09%.
…
As markets increasingly price in the likelihood of a Democratic president and Congress which would likely result in a rise in government spending and borrowing, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest since early June last week at 0.872%.

“We have raised the probability of a Democratic sweep, already our base case, from 40% to just over 50% and have increased our expectation of (Democratic presidential candidate)Biden to win from 65% to 75%,” NatWest Markets analysts said. “We see steeper U.S. yield curves and a weaker USD as likely to prevail in our base case.”
…
Oil prices extended last week’s losses. OPEC’s secretary general said an oil market recovery may take longer than hoped as coronavirus inflections rise around the world, and OPEC and its allies would “stay the course” in balancing the market.

U.S. crude was down 3.64% at $38.40 per barrel and Brent was at $40.37, down 3.35% on the day.

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets/global-markets-stocks-slide-on-surging-virus-cases-stimulus-doubts-dollar-rises-idUSL1N2HH1EE

[Tom_Mazanec]

Ranks of the Long-Term Unemployed Growing
https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/ranks-of-the-long-term-unemployed-growing/

The ranks of the long-term unemployed – those out of work for 27 weeks or more – grew to 2.4 million in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That’s the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic. The last time we saw this kind of jump in long-term unemployment was during the Great Recession.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26 weeks stands at 5 million.

To put the growing number of long-term unemployed workers into some historical context, long-term unemployment hit a record high of 6.5 million and made up 44% of all unemployed workers in March 2010. That was 10-and-a-half months after the official end of the Great Recession in the summer of 2009. Long-term unemployed workers already make up 20% of the total unemployed just 8 months after the US economy fell into recession.

[Sigmetnow]

The post-Covid 'zombification' of advanced economies is here to stay, EIU warns

LONDON — The coronavirus pandemic is likely to cause a long-lasting "zombification" of the global economy, a prominent research firm warns.

Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit, suggested that those "zombie" features previously associated with the "Japanese economy — slow growth, low inflation and high debt — will become common across advanced economies" following the pandemic.

In the EIU's fourth quarter economic forecast report, published Wednesday, Demarais said that before the outbreak of the coronavirus Japan was considered an "economic oddity." Japan's economic crash, after its stock market and real estate bubble burst in 1989, was followed by a "'lost decade' of feeble growth between 1991 and 2001," said Demarais, who wrote the EIU report.  The Japanese government's attempt at boosting economic activity through fiscal stimulus failed, she said. Its debt-to-gross domestic product ratio climbed to 240% and inflation remained "stubbornly low."
 
As a result of the coronavirus, those characteristics of slow growth, low inflation and high levels of debt would now become common among advanced economies in decades to come, Demarais said.

"The pandemic may not last once a vaccine is found," she stated in the report. "However, the post-coronavirus zombification of advanced economies appears to be here to stay."

Indeed, this could be seen as advanced economies implemented "extraordinary" fiscal measures in response to the coronavirus crisis. G20 countries had so far announced stimulus programs worth around $11 trillion, which is nearly the same size of the Japanese, German and French economies combined.

The public-debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to around 140% of GDP across developed economies, Demarais predicted.  ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/eiu-warns-of-the-post-covid-zombification-of-advanced-economies.html

[Sigmetnow]

"We are in a very serious situation," Merkel said at a press conference. "We must act, and now, to avoid an acute national health emergency."

Dow extends losses, dropping by 900 points as Europe reintroduces lockdowns
Oct. 28, 2020, 1:36 PM EDT

Wall Street fell again on Wednesday, as parts of Europe announced additional lockdowns and U.S. cities such as Chicago and Newark, New Jersey, introduced a new round of restrictive measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus. ...

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/wall-street-tumbles-again-dow-falling-500-points-n1245080

[Tom_Mazanec]

Knock-on Effects Knock out Economy Like Dominoes
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/knock-out-knock-on-effects-take-out-economy-like-dominoes/

The major knock-on effects of the COVID shutdown are now starting to stack against each other, pushing city centers into the dust. Here are some of the big moves that are as characteristic of the US as they are of the world overall.

Former Fed Economist: This Recession Is ‘Unlike Anything We’ve Seen In The Past’
https://www.crn.com/news/mobility/former-fed-economist-this-recession-is-unlike-anything-we-ve-seen-in-the-past-

Ultimately, it’s worth re-emphasizing that “this recession is something unlike anything that we have seen in the past,” Cunningham said. “Some segments of the economy are recovering. At the same time, we’ve got some slowness that’s going to be a problem for sectors in the economy for some time to come. And that bifurcation is a challenge that we’re going to be facing for a very long time—at least until we get a real handle on the global public health pandemic that put us into the situation in the first place.”

A deep recession should hurt Trump's reelection bid, but this isn't a usual downturn
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/investing/recession-stock-market-election-trump-biden/index.html

"A lot of recessions are caused by high interest rates or the unwinding of a bubble," said Ashok Bhatia, deputy chief investment officer of fixed income with Neuberger Berman in an interview with CNN Business.
"One should be careful of saying that this recession is bad for the incumbent since it had a much different cause," he added.

Business Next: The recession has hit Erie County harder than its neighboring counties
https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2020/10/29/recession-impact-eight-wny-counties.html

The effects of the 2020 recession seem more durable in Erie County, which spent five consecutive months this year with an unemployment rate worse than its Great Recession peak. No other Western New York county had a streak longer than four months, and Wyoming County endured only one month in 2020 that was worse than the previous recession.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Jobless Americans face debt crunch without more federal aid as bills come due
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/jobless-americans-face-debt-crunch-without-more-federal-aid-as-bills-come-due-433649

A new phase of the economic crisis is looming for the winner of Tuesday’s presidential election: potentially massive defaults by jobless Americans on consumer loans as the chances for more federal relief this year diminish.

How More Women Than Men Are Being Impacted By The Recession
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/30/929402255/how-more-women-than-men-are-being-impacted-by-the-recession

3-Minute Listen
Download
Of the 1.1 million people who left the job market in September, more than 860,000 were women. We examine why women are dropping out of the workforce, and what it will mean for the economy.

US economic growth shatters record at 33.1%, but fails to snap coronavirus recession
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-grew-by-record-shattering-xx-pace-last-quarter

"The economy in the third quarter will still be far below what it was pre-COVID, so far below that the depth of the recession even after that record growth will still be as a deep as a very deep recession, like the 2008 recession," Justin Wolfers, a University of Michigan economist, told FOX Business before the latest data.

[vox_mundi]

Too much sunshine peeking through the clouds? Seen a color brighter than gray? Haven't heard the word coronavirus in the last 3 minutes?

Is that what's troubling you, Bunky?

Well curl up and watch a trailer for Michael Bay’s pandemic thriller ‘Songbird’

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Songbird_(film)

The film follows a dystopian reality where COVID has mutated and the world is in Year 4 of lockdown



Songbird is a horror-thriller imagining the future of the coronavirus crisis. Produced by the Transformers director and helmed by Adam Mason (Hulu’s Into the Dark), the film finds the world stricken by the — get ready — COVID-23 virus, which has mutated and forced the population into a fourth year of lockdown. But in this harsh reality, which will definitely not feel extrapolated from current political conditions or give anyone watching anxiety whatsoever, infected Americans are removed from their homes by the government and put in quarantine camps. Luckily, LG technology still exists, making the world a better place.

Just a fun time at the movies! The first trailer for Songbird gets around the restrictions necessary for a coronavirus production by isolating most of the characters and dipping into a world where everyone’s communicating over video calls.

Maybe that’s a thing you would want to watch.

Not!

[Tom_Mazanec]

Covid-19 second wave pushing UK to brink of double-dip recession
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/covid-19-second-wave-pushing-uk-to-brink-of-double-dip-recession

The government will close the furlough scheme this weekend, with redundancies rising at the fastest rate on record and the second wave of Covid-19 pushing Britain’s economy to the brink of a double-dip recession, according to a Guardian analysis.

As the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, prepares to end the multibillion-pound coronavirus job retention scheme and launch a less generous replacement programme, early warning indicators show business activity faltering as local lockdowns take effect. The number of people losing their jobs is rising much faster than during the 2008 financial crisis, while the economic fightback from the March lockdown is gradually fading.

Europe could be facing a double-dip recession
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/30/business/europe-recession-covid-second-wave/index.html

Following record GDP growth in the third quarter, the region risks being tipped straight back into recession as sweeping restrictions aimed at curbing a second wave of coronavirus bring a rapid end to its fragile recovery.
EU gross domestic product surged 12.1% between July and September, statistics agency Eurostat said in a statement on Friday. GDP increased 12.7% across the 19 countries that use the euro. The expansions, which followed huge declines in the second quarter, were the biggest since 1995.
But the EU economy remains about 4% smaller than it was at the end of September last year and analysts say the recovery will be short-lived.

Jim Rogers: Great Depression 2.0?
https://www.peakprosperity.com/jim-rogers-great-depression-2-0/

Jim Rogers is not only one of the most successful investors of our era, he’s also an avid scholar of history.

Seeing that the world is buried under an unprecedented mountain of debt that is requiring more and more central planner intervention to keep from imploding on itself, Jim says history is clear on what happens next.

A clearing of the debt either via massive default, or destruction of the currency it’s denominated in.

He looks into the future and sees a terrible reckoning ahead; one he predicts will be “the worst economic crisis of my lifetime” — and Jim is 78 years old.

[be cause]

.. and full circle .. back to my 'really great depression' .. it just will not go away ..

[Tom_Mazanec]

Sloppy GDP Analysis Understates Risk Of The Recession Continuing
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2020/10/31/sloppy-gdp-analysis-understates-risk-of-the-recession-continuing/

Bracing for a Shecession: the onset of our nation's first female-led recession
https://www.citizen-times.com/story/opinion/2020/11/01/bracing-shecession-onset-our-nations-first-female-led-recession-ywca-asheville/6075195002/

Fueled by disappearing service-sector jobs and a lack of child care options, our nation is experiencing the onset of our first female-led recession– more appropriately, a “Shecession.”

At the same time, women— who are the majority of essential workers— have been pushed to the frontlines of the pandemic without sufficient access to child care.  Nearly half of child care centers have closed or reduced capacity, leaving working mothers without care. 

Second England lockdown fuels fears of Covid double-dip recession
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/01/second-england-lockdown-fuels-fears-of-covid-double-dip-recession

Bank of England policymakers are expected to inject up to £100bn into the economy when they meet this week amid mounting fears that the four-week lockdown for England will lead to a double-dip recession.

And here is a heads-up for the next recession:
Unchecked climate change tipped to dwarf impact of coronavirus recession
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unchecked-climate-change-tipped-to-dwarf-impact-of-coronavirus-recession-20201030-p569zn.html

New research has found that if climate change goes unchecked, it would cost Australia $3.4 trillion and almost 900,000 jobs by 2070, dwarfing the impact of the coronavirus recession and devastating key industries such as tourism and mining.

The research by Deloitte Access Economics suggests the country could adopt a net-zero emissions policy at a fraction of the cost of dealing with the pandemic that would help grow the economy over the next half century and add a quarter-of-a-million jobs.

[Tom_Mazanec]

US ECONOMY
The growing U.S. deficit raises questions about funding as China cuts U.S. debt holdings
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/china-drops-us-treasurys-impact-on-us-deficit-and-coronavirus-stimulus.html

If another multi-trillion dollar stimulus package is approved by Congress, coupled with lower tax revenue, it would take the deficit to close to 20% of the country’s GDP, Mee said.

“Looking ahead, the Treasury expects the issuance to remain high with the timing dependent on the passing of the next stimulus programme,” he said in a recent note. “The key question then is: who will finance the heavy issuance associated with very large budget deficit.”

Recession, job losses likely to continue for months: NCCI
https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20201102/NEWS08/912337507/Recession,-job-losses-likely-to-continue-for-months-NCCI-National-Council-on-Co#

Much of the job losses from the nationwide shutdown in March have been recovered, but the recession is likely to continue, affecting employment levels for months or years, according to a report released Monday by the National Council on Compensation Insurance.

Jill On Money: Is the COVID recession over? Don’t celebrate yet
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/11/02/jill-on-money-is-the-covid-recession-over-dont-celebrate-yet/

“The next six months will be crucial,” according to Swonk. “The economy could easily stagnate or worse in the fourth and first quarters if Congress fails to deliver. What was hoped would be a short-term shock could metastasize into a more traditional and long lasting recession.”

Pandemic recession becomes ‘shecession’ as more working moms are forced to quit jobs
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-coronavirus-gender-equality-working-moms-layoffs-20201102-k24qlguqfbgglfybdjpyltb7w4-story.html

Early in the pandemic, moms of school-age children from early closure states were about 68% more likely to voluntarily leave their jobs than moms in states that had not yet closed, according to a study by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve. Compared with dads, moms were about 50% more likely to take leave.

The situation hasn’t gotten much better.

Pandemic likely tipped Indonesia into first recession since 1998 - Reuters poll
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-indonesia-economy-gdp-poll-idUKKBN27J0JM

Authorities have predicted 3.5 million people in Southeast Asia’s largest economy could lose their jobs due to the downturn caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The median forecast of 23 economists polled was for a 3.00% on-year shrinkage in GDP during the July-September quarter, after a 5.32% decline in the previous three months, fulfilling criteria for a recession of two consecutive quarters of negative annual growth.

Goldman Sachs slashes Europe GDP forecast as fresh lockdowns point to double-dip recession
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-slashes-europe-gdp-forecast-fresh-lockdowns-doubledip-recession-2020-11-1029758383

Goldman Sachs cut Europe's fourth-quarter growth forecasts after rising coronavirus infections prompted another wave of lockdowns across the region.
UK GDP is now expected to shrink 2.4% in the period, a sharp reversal from the bank's previous estimate of 3.6% growth.
The Eurozone could see a 2.3% GDP contraction in the fourth quarter, worse than the previous forecast of 2.2% growth.
"We estimate that a longer lockdown would result in negative growth also in Q1, pushing the economy into a double-dip recession," the bank's economists wrote in a note.

Youth unemployment higher than during the recession
https://www.wiltshiretimes.co.uk/news/18843349.youth-unemployment-higher-recession/

Youth unemployment in Wiltshire is greater than at the height of the recession, according to Wiltshire Council.

In September, according to the council, the number of people claiming unemployment was 12,605, a drop from the figures in August which saw 12,850 claimants.

Of those out of work, 2,660 are under the age of 24 which is higher than at the peak of the financial recession where around 2,400 young people were unemployed in Wiltshire.

But on the other hand...
Why The Global Economy is Recovering Faster Than Expected
https://hbr.org/2020/11/why-the-global-economy-is-recovering-faster-than-expected

The economic impact of coronavirus continues to surprise. In the spring, previously unimaginable shutdowns pushed economic activity to unimaginable lows. After the initial shock, however, perhaps the biggest surprise has been how fears of systemic meltdown remain unfulfilled — the initial bounce back was far stronger and sooner than expected, and some sectors of the U.S. and other economies have seen complete recoveries to pre-crisis levels of activity.

While the stronger-than-expected recovery aligns with the business experience of many leaders we speak with, they still wonder what drove the gap between expectations and reality — and whether it can last. To answer these questions, we need to look at various recession types and their drivers, how Covid-19 fits in, and what this cycle’s idiosyncrasies are.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Stagflation Has Returned And Food Prices Prove It
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4384465-stagflation-returned-and-food-prices-prove

Food inflation in the United States has averaged 4% since April, similar to the beginning of the stagflation of the 1970s.
Agriculture prices bottomed out as food inflation peaked in June. Now wheat, soybeans and corn prices are on the rise, which means food inflation is about to worsen.
This is not due to supply shortages, as producers are short a record number of corn and soybean contracts. Plus, in gold terms, these commodities are at record lows.
What is happening is that dollar positions are being exited internationally and countries are hoarding food commodities instead. Soybeans are locked in backwardation despite the harvest already being completed.
This could worsen considerably once the next bailout bill passes, as dollar positions get liquidated around the world.

England underestimates the costs of lockdown at its peril
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/england-lockdown-peril-young-people-mental-health

Even if the threat to the NHS is a real one, it cannot be the only factor or even the main one. We have to balance the risks of rising case numbers against the devastating effects of the lockdown itself.
The victims of lockdowns are the young, the poor, the badly housed and the precariously employed. They are children living in poverty and insecurity. They are couples falling apart amid the pressures of confinement and the threat of violence. They are people struggling with loneliness and mental illness. There are millions of them. Poverty, depression, loneliness and insecurity all kill. And when they do not kill, they maim. Many will feel the effects for years.

Jobless claims edge lower but are still well above pre-pandemic levels
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/05/weekly-jobless-claims.html

First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 751,000 last week, a slight decline from the previous period.
Wall Street had been looking for a number around 741,000.
Continuing claims declined as well, and those receiving benefits fell by 1.15 million.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Double-Dip Recession in Europe to Weigh on Global Recovery
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/double-dip-recession-in-europe-to-weigh-on-global-recovery-06-11-2020

The latest lockdowns are planned for four weeks but we assume new restrictions will only be phased out gradually over the winter months. On this basis we see eurozone GDP falling by around 4% qoq in 4Q20. However, we expect eurozone GDP to recover quite sharply next spring. We have lowered our annual 2021 eurozone growth forecast by 1pp to 4.5%. A key downside risk is that further lockdowns become necessary later in the year.

Citi’s Mann: World Is Not Actually Out of Recession Right Now
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-11-06/citi-s-mann-world-is-not-actually-out-of-recession-right-now-video

Catherine Mann, global chief economist at Citigroup, says a double-dip recession may be a misnomer as she discusses the state of the global economy and her outlook for the U.S. dollar. She speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Congress still needs to respond further to the COVID recession
https://www.aei.org/economics/congress-still-needs-to-respond-further-to-the-covid-recession/

The decline in state and local government employment reflects the accumulating effects of revenue shortfalls resulting from the pandemic, as well as the procyclicality of state and local government fiscal policy in the absence of federal support. As we have discussed elsewhere (in varying degrees of detail), revenue shortfalls lead state governments to lay off workers because they face balanced budget requirements and have insufficient rainy day funds to weather the pandemic.

Recession: What it means for you
https://www.thejakartapost.com/paper/2020/11/07/frontpage.html

The Indonesian economy enters its first recession since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, bringing two decades of economic expansion to an end as the coronavirus pandemic has caused a sharp economic slowdown, throwing millions into poverty and out of jobs. Economists define a recession as contractions in two consecutive quarters, marking a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy.    This means there are fewer jobs, people are earning and spending less and businesses have stopped expanding or even shut down. Individuals and businesses in tourism, transportation, accommodation and food and beverage may be feeling the greatest pinch as Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data show that they were the worst-performing sectors in the third quarter this year.

There are ‘pretty high’ risks of the U.S. economy backtracking, Moody’s economist warns
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/06/mark-zandi-on-risks-to-us-economy-from-covid-spread-lack-of-stimulus.html

The U.S. economy could backtrack given the intensifying spread of Covid-19 and the lack of additional support measures, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
The U.S. recorded more than 100,000 daily confirmed coronavirus cases for the first time on Wednesday, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed.
Zandi said a likely “split government” in the U.S. means a “big fiscal rescue package” would not happen.

The $68 trillion transfer of wealth in America is evaporating amid crisis
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/05/68-trillion-transfer-of-wealth-in-america-is-evaporating-amid-crisis.html

According to a survey by the Center for New Middle Class, there was a 25% drop in the number of baby boomers who said they are self-employed or own their own business in the second quarter.
That impact could have significant repercussions for the economy at large considering that baby boomers own nearly half of privately-held businesses with employees in the U.S., according to Project Equity.
That’s 2.34 million businesses with 24.7 million employees and $5.1 trillion in sales, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

[gerontocrat]

A Green Recovery? perhaps not. The gulf between blah blah (plans) and reality seems somewhat high..

"Even countries that have boasted of green recovery plans are frequently spending much more on activities that will maintain or increase greenhouse gas emissions."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/09/revealed-covid-recovery-plans-threaten-global-climate-hopes
Revealed: Covid recovery plans threaten global climate hopes

Exclusive: analysis finds countries pouring money into fossil fuels to fight recession

The prospect of a global green recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is hanging in the balance, as countries pour money into the fossil fuel economy to stave off a devastating recession, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

Meanwhile, promises of a low-carbon boost are failing to materialise. Only a handful of major countries are pumping rescue funds into low-carbon efforts such as renewable power, electric vehicles and energy efficiency.

A new Guardian ranking finds the EU is a frontrunner, devoting 30% of its €750bn (£677bn) Next Generation Recovery Fund to green ends. France and Germany have earmarked about €30bn and €50bn respectively of their own additional stimulus for environmental spending.

On the other end of the scale, China is faring the worst of the major economies, with only 0.3% of its package – about £1.1bn – slated for green projects. In the US, before the election, only about $26bn (£19.8bn), or just over 1%, of the announced spending was green.

In at least 18 of the world’s biggest economies, more than six months on from the first wave of lockdowns in the early spring, pandemic rescue packages are dominated by spending that has a harmful environmental impact, such as bailouts for oil or new high-carbon infrastructure, outweighing the positive climate benefits of any green spending, according to the analysis.

Only four countries – France, Spain, the UK and Germany – and the EU have packages that will produce a net environmental benefit.

“The natural environment and climate change have not been a core part of the thinking in the bulk of recovery plans,” said Jason Eis, chief executive of Vivid Economics, which compiled the index for the Guardian. “In the majority of countries we are not seeing a green recovery coming through at all.”

Even countries that have boasted of green recovery plans are frequently spending much more on activities that will maintain or increase greenhouse gas emissions. South Korea set out plans for a green new deal in July, worth about $135bn. But its continued spending on fossil fuels and carbon-intensive industries means it ranks only eighth in the world for the greenness of its stimulus.

Canada similarly is spending C$6bn (£3.5bn) of its infrastructure funding on home insulation, green transport and clean energy, but its total rescue package is worth more than $300bn and contains measures such as a massive road expansion and tax relief for fossil fuel companies. India is spending about $830m on its green economy, but plans to prop up coal have dragged down its performance.


But the election of Joe Biden as US president has the potential to transform the green recovery globally, the Vivid analysis shows. Although he may face a Republican majority in the Senate, if Biden’s plans for a $2tn green stimulus were implemented in full the US would overtake the EU as the biggest investor in a low-carbon future.

“That would be a transformative shift,” said Eis. “These are very bold plans from Biden, and it would be a huge signal to other countries. They would mean the US could start a race-to-the-top dynamic globally, especially with China, for a green recovery.”

Biden wants to boost renewable energy, powering the US entirely through clean energy by 2035 and reaching net zero emissions by 2050, investing $1.7tn over the next decade, with the expectation of private investment taking the total to $5tn. However, his plans must pass a hostile Republican Senate and will face opposition and possible legal challenges from sections of US business, and potentially some states.

Yet even if only a portion of Biden’s green plans survived intact, that could still have a powerful transformative effect, both on the US economy and around the world, said Eis. “You would expect there to be some compromise, but compared with where the US is now there would be a huge shift [in green spending] under a Biden presidency,” he said. “Many other countries are influenced by the perception of US leadership. Having the US at the G20 table pushing a green recovery would certainly help.”

Countries failing to initiate a green recovery were missing out on the potential to create millions of jobs, added Ed Barbier, professor of economics at Colorado State University, whose landmark study of the 2008 financial crisis pegged that recovery as about 16% green. “There is huge potential for boosting employment, particularly in construction,” he said, pointing to measures such as installing home insulation, solar panels and electric car charging infrastructure, which are labour-intensive and often “shovel-ready”.

While countries fail to muster a green recovery, they are also falling behind on their obligations under the Paris climate agreement. The International Energy Agency has calculated, exclusively for the Guardian, that countries are planning emissions cuts that amount to only 15% of the reductions needed to fulfil the Paris agreement. The IEA has also found that China’s emissions, which dipped sharply in the initial phases of the pandemic, have already rebounded to 2019 levels and are likely to exceed them.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said: “China has not yet started on a green recovery. But they have not yet missed the opportunity for a Chinese reset, if China changes its next five-year plan [due to be settled next March]. Whatever China builds now should be green.”

Without China, a global green recovery looks impossible. “If China does not come up with green recovery packages, putting a new five-year plan in line with the target of net zero, then the world’s chances of reaching its climate targets will be close to zero,” Birol warned.

Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific analysis, found that governments in many countries, far from prioritising low-carbon growth, were bolstering carbon-intensive industries and loosening environmental regulations. Niklas Höhne, of the NewClimate Institute, one of the partner organisations behind CAT, warned: “What we’re seeing more of is governments using the pandemic recovery to roll back climate legislation and bail out the fossil fuel industry, especially in the US, but also in Brazil, Mexico, Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other countries.”

[The Walrus]

The stock market appears to upbeat on the Biden victory.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Some months ago I asked if this recession would be inflationary like the 1970s or deflationary like the 1930s. Let's see how the wind is blowing:
Month   Inflation
Sep-Oct    +0.23%
Oct-Nov    -0.05%
Nov-Dec   -0.09%
Dec-Jan    +0.39
Jan-Feb    +0.27
Feb-Mar    -0.22
Mar-Apr    -0.67
Apr-May    0.00
May-Jun    +0.55
Jun-Jul    +0.51
Jul-Aug    +0.32
Aug-Sep    +0.14
https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl
Seems to have briefly been deflationary, then (with the stimulus?) a little inflationary.

[Bruce Steele]

Walrus, I think the markets liked the 90% number for the vaccine.
I am also of the opinion that markets are trying to find a new home for the cheap money that government keeps rolling out . Fracking is so passé and tired so how about spending the same cheap capital that kept  the economy rolling over the last decade on oil and spend it all on renewables instead?
Again just opinion but I think solar, wind and batteries are going to get a huge boost and as long as government keeps spitting out money to juice the markets the markets will be happy. If cheap money goes away , well let’s not go there.

[SteveMDFP]

"Seems to have briefly been deflationary, then (with the stimulus?) a little inflationary."

I agree.  Do remember, the Federal Reserve has an infinite supply of money to fight deflation.  At this point they'd rather stop deflation than stop inflation.  So they'll continue building their balance sheet.  Some fraction of that money will go into the stock market (directly or indirectly).  So stocks may go higher--until they suddenly don't. even as the recession deepens (in the absence of more checks to those who desperately need assistance).  Mitch will block that plan as part of his political warfare game.

[Tom_Mazanec]

U.S. still faces possible default wave, asset declines due to pandemic, Fed warns
http://www.gata.org/node/20638

From Reuters
Monday, November 9, 2020

WASHINGTON -- The United States may still face a wave of debt defaults and "significant declines" in asset prices because of the coronavirus pandemic and recession, the Federal Reserve warned today, in a stark reminder the economy is far from out of the woods.

Unemployment’s Clouds Threaten More Recession
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2020/11/11/unemployments-clouds-threaten-more-recession/

There are five negative conditions at work in unemployment’s current status
First, the weekly initial unemployment benefit claims remain high
Second, the number of unemployed not receiving benefits is increasing
Third, the length of unemployment is looking more recession-like
Fourth, age groupings show uneven recoveries
Fifth, the comparisons with "normal" are still abnormal

Will Gen Z ever recover from the COVID-19 recession?
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/10/will-gen-z-ever-recover-from-the-coronavirus-recession

United States unemployment for workers aged 16 to 24 tripled from 2019 to 2020, hitting 24.4 percent this spring, according to an October report by the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive-leaning think-tank based in Washington, DC.
Like every aspect of the coronavirus recession, it is affecting communities of colour more. Unemployment rates were higher for young workers of colour – including Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (29.7 percent), African Americans (29.6 percent) and Latinos (27.5 percent), EPI found.
And that blow to their livelihoods may not be temporary. Gen Z workers could feel the effects of the pandemic-related recession for decades to come as the current situation affects everything from their ability to advance in careers, buy a house or afford to raise children.

Boston Fed President Lectures on Pandemic Recession
https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/11/11/boston-fed-rosengren-coronavirus-lecture/

The pandemic is disproportionately hurting the nation’s most vulnerable populations, according to Rosengren, including young workers, women, and minorities — all of whom are overrepresented in the hard-hit service sector.
“This has implications for the long-run productivity of the U.S. economy,” he said. “Because if the women leave the workforce and don't come back, it will affect our ability to grow more rapidly as the economy does recover.”

[gerontocrat]

In the UK the K shaped recovery continues, while the establishment denies that real poverty is spreading while the pigs wallow in an ever bigger trough.

FTSE 100 recovers to highest level since June after vaccine unveiled
Promising clinical data from Pfizer and BioNTech help the index to a £28bn one-day gain

Debt crisis warning as UK reports steep rise in emergency borrowing
Household borrowing and arrears linked to pandemic have soared to £10.3bn

Britain is “sleepwalking into a debt crisis” after a steep rise in emergency borrowing by low- and middle-income households to cope with the Covid-19 jobs crisis.

Research by the debt charity Stepchange found that household borrowing and arrears linked to the coronavirus pandemic have soared 66% since May to £10.3bn. The number of people who are in severe debt has risen to 1.2 million – nearly doubling since March – with a further 3 million people at risk of falling into arrears after taking on extra short-term loans.

[Shared Humanity]

To provide context to the recent posts, worldwide capitalism has been in a debt crisis since 2008 and has only narrowly avoided disaster as national banks flooded the system with liquidity. This excess liquidity has remained in place since as any efforts to reduce it has threatened collapse. The pandemic has only served to expose the current crisis and worsen it.

What does an individual do in a debt crisis? Stay out of debt, accumulate cash, wait for the inevitable collapse in the price of assets and then scoop them up for pennies on the dollar.

[Tom_Mazanec]

That's right, Shared HUmanity. Here is more on debt:

From taxes to transport: visualizing America's $27 trillion debt
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/charting-america-united-states-debt

Now facing a pandemic, it’s likely that many Americans would support the idea of running large deficits to boost the economy. Surveys released in July 2020, for example, found that 82% of Americans wanted federal relief measures to be extended.
Looking beyond COVID-19, however, does reveal some warning signs. One frequent criticism of the ever-growing national debt is its associated interest costs, which could cannibalize investment in other areas. In fact, the effects of this dilemma are already becoming apparent. Over the past decade, the U.S. has spent more on interest than it has on programs such as veterans benefits and education.

Global business, workers and civil society call on G20 to deliver Common Framework on debt to avoid a lost decade.
https://iccwbo.org/media-wall/news-speeches/global-business-workers-and-civil-society-call-on-g20-to-deliver-common-framework-on-debt-to-avoid-a-lost-decade/

ICC, ITUC and Global Citizen urge G20 governments to take necessary steps to avoid a ‘lost decade’ of sustainable development.
The open letter comes ahead of a meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors this Friday to finalise a Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative.

Debt crisis warning as UK reports steep rise in emergency borrowing
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/nov/12/debt-crisis-warning-uk-records-steep-rise-emergency-borrowing-coronavirus

Research by the debt charity Stepchange found that household borrowing and arrears linked to the coronavirus pandemic have soared 66% since May to £10.3bn. The number of people who are in severe debt has risen to 1.2 million – nearly doubling since March – with a further 3 million people at risk of falling into arrears after taking on extra short-term loans.
Phil Andrew, the charity’s chief executive, said: “This report paints a picture of a nation sleepwalking into a debt crisis. Despite a bold initial reaction to the pandemic, the government and financial services sector’s toolkit of responses has not evolved, and the result is a spiralling number of people being plunged into debt due to Covid-19. And the worst is yet to come.”

NATIONAL DEBT A BIG THREAT FOR STUDENTS
https://communitynewspapers.com/kendallgazette/national-debt-a-big-threat-for-students/

With a national debt of $27 trillion and soaring, many students struggle to pay for a college education, an education that is vital for their success and growth in this fast-paced world. However, you may ask yourself, how does the national debt cause such a big impact on many students’ lives? How does it affect me personally and those around me? Well, I’ll tell you why. A failure to address our national debt will mean that the federal government will have a more challenging time investing in priories that encourage and drive economic growth, such as education, research, and scientific development.
This is evident right here right now. Because of the growing debt, the U.S. is facing a significant issue within education reform, and currently, many students are not getting the quality education and resources they deserve. This problem is further intensified by the fact that it primarily affects minority and low-income communities. These social groups are disproportionately affected by budget cuts, teacher disengagement, and lack of education development. During the 2019-2020 academic year, an estimated 14.61 million students enrolled in college with a national graduation rate of 33.3%, but many states fell below this average. Due to the lack of resources, whether it be monetary or educational, students are paying the cost.

Start Preparing for the Coming Debt Crisis
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/20/election-2020-global-debt-crisis/

The next U.S. administration will likely face a global debt crisis that could dwarf what the world experienced in 2008-2009. To prevent the worst, it will need to address the burdensome debt plaguing both the United States and the global economy.
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed economies around the world, economists were warning about unsustainable debt in many countries. Take the United States: A surge in spending to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the pandemic has brought the total public debt in the United States to over 100 percent of GDP—its highest level since 1946 and a hurdle that will create a considerable drag on future economic growth. Other types of debt—household, auto, and student loans, as well as credit card debt—have seen similar surges. Almost 20 percent of U.S. corporations have become zombie companies that are unable to generate enough cash flow to service even the interest on their debt, and only survive thanks to continued loans and bailouts.

[wili]

"A surge in spending to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the pandemic has brought the total public debt in the United States to over 100 percent of GDP—its highest level since 1946..."

And what happened with the US economy in the following 20 years? Disaster? Or one of the largest economic expansions in history?

Maybe this means that debt is the best thing you can do for a nations economy?

[The Walrus]

"A surge in spending to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the pandemic has brought the total public debt in the United States to over 100 percent of GDP—its highest level since 1946..."

And what happened with the US economy in the following 20 years? Disaster? Or one of the largest economic expansions in history?

Maybe this means that debt is the best thing you can do for a nations economy?

Perhaps.  I used to think that the mounting debt was a recipe for disaster.  I am not so sure anymore.

[Sigmetnow]

Deutsche Bank proposes a 5% tax for people still working from home after the pandemic

A research team at Deutsche Bank proposed that people pay a 5% tax for the "privilege" of working from home, if they continue to do so after the pandemic, as this could subsidize income lost by lower-earners due to the coronavirus crisis.

Deutsche Bank thematic strategist Luke Templeman said in the investment bank's Konzept research report, published Tuesday, that a tax on remote workers had been needed for years but "Covid has just made it obvious."

Working from home meant that many people were saving on everyday costs such as travel, lunch, clothes and cleaning, as well as possibly spending less on socializing. However, the report also said it meant remote workers were "contributing less to the infrastructure of the economy whilst still receiving its benefits."

Templeman said remote workers should pay a levy post-pandemic "in order to smooth the transition process for those who have suddenly been displaced" by the coronavirus crisis.

He explained that the global economy was not set up to cope with people disconnecting from face-to-face society. It had taken centuries to build up economic infrastructure which supported face-to-face working, he pointed out, and yet the sudden mass shift to working from home during the pandemic is a trend that wasn't going away.

The pandemic had seen 10 times more people in the U.S. working from home, at 56% of the workforce, while the U.K. had seen this figure rise seven-fold to 47%. A Deutsche Bank survey showed that more than half of workers internationally wanted to continue to work from home two to three days a week post-pandemic.
...
Backsolved taxes
Templeman said that some people would oppose the proposed tax, arguing that "engagement with the economy is a personal choice and they should not be penalised for making that decision."
However, he highlighted that governments had always "backsolved taxes to suit the social environment."

Subsidizing businesses that had no long-term future in this shift toward "human disconnection" made no sense for governments, Templeman said, but supporting workers who had been "displaced by forces out outside their control" while they retrain or figure out their next steps did.

Therefore, he said, workers "lucky enough to be in a position to 'disconnect' themselves from the face-to-face economy owe it to them." 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/deutsche-bank-proposes-a-5percent-tax-for-remote-workers-post-pandemic.html

[Shared Humanity]

"A surge in spending to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the pandemic has brought the total public debt in the United States to over 100 percent of GDP—its highest level since 1946..."

And what happened with the US economy in the following 20 years? Disaster? Or one of the largest economic expansions in history?

Maybe this means that debt is the best thing you can do for a nations economy?

Government debt is a very small part of the global debt crisis. We have zombie companies in this country that can no longer service the debt they have. They are being kept afloat by easy money and the U.S. government has begun to purchase corporate debt because private investors don't want it. Consumer debt is far higher today than it was leading into the mortgage crisis that nearly collapsed the world economy. Remember mortgaged backed securities? The banks are now packaging up Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and the total in these securites is larger than the residential equivalent in 2008. Wonder how that will go with the collapse in the commercial real estate market.

[kassy]

"A surge in spending to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the pandemic has brought the total public debt in the United States to over 100 percent of GDP—its highest level since 1946..."

And what happened with the US economy in the following 20 years? Disaster? Or one of the largest economic expansions in history?

Maybe this means that debt is the best thing you can do for a nations economy?

The 1946 level was from the war. The US being the victors then had quite some power shaping the world the following decades. I don´t think you can equate the two cases.

[wili]

Good points, SH

kassy, no, not equate (of course, no two periods in history are equivalent to each other). Just to point out that large amounts of 'public debt' don't necessarily and inevitably lead to imminent financial disaster.

(I guess my inner (dic-)keynesian is coming out here?  )

[Tom_Mazanec]

It may depend on what you incur the debt for. Is the debt of 2020 as wisely incurred as that of 1946?

[Shared Humanity]

Corporate Debt

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-corporate-debt-covid-19-bonds-federal-reserve-1521219

Personal Debt

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/consumer-debt-hits-new-record-of-14point3-trillion.html#:~:text=Household%20debt%20rose%20to%20%2414.3,middle%20of%20the%20financial%20crisis.

State and Local Government debt

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/consumer-debt-hits-new-record-of-14point3-trillion.html#:~:text=Household%20debt%20rose%20to%20%2414.3,middle%20of%20the%20financial%20crisis.

Federal Debt

https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/#:~:text=The%20Congressional%20Budget%20Office%20estimates,by%20the%20end%20of%202020.

[Sigmetnow]

Passenger Aboard First Cruise Ship to Return to Sailing in Caribbean Tests Positive for COVID-19

Lund reportedly said in his announcement that the crew was working under the assumption that they had at least one COVID patient on board and noted that the passenger who tested positive had been feeling ill before the test.

Sloan detailed that the captain asked all passengers and non-essential crew to immediately return to their cabins to isolate. The doctors on board then began systematically testing passengers using three rapid COVID testing machines. Everyone on the ship had already been tested several days before departing, the day of their departure, and again several days into the trip.

While the boat made several island stops already, passengers were only allowed to visit empty beaches and did not come into contact with locals as part of the effort to protect communities from potential infection.

SeaDream 1 is now heading back to the port from which it departed, where it will be met by medical professionals.

Cruise companies halted all sailings in the Caribbean last spring as the pandemic took hold in North America, individual countries enacted stringent travel restrictions and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) enacted a "no-sail order."

"This is a blow to the cruise industry's efforts to restart operations in the Caribbean," Sloan told PEOPLE. "SeaDream's return to cruising in the Caribbean was a watershed moment for the industry, and many were hoping it would go smoothly." ...

https://people.com/travel/passenger-aboard-first-cruise-ship-to-return-to-sailing-in-caribbean-tests-positive-for-covid-19/

[vox_mundi]

 Il n'était pas destiné à être

[SteveMDFP]

Passenger Aboard First Cruise Ship to Return to Sailing in Caribbean Tests Positive for COVID-19

Well, it was one passenger.  Now:

SeaDream 1: five passengers test positive for Covid-19 on Caribbean cruise ship
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/caribbean-cruise-ship-coronavirus-seadream

[Rodius]

Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?