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Author Topic: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences  (Read 58476 times)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1000 on: November 13, 2020, 05:55:45 AM »
Shared Humanity, you linked household debt for state and local government debt.
And what about liabilities of 150+ trillion dollars?
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sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1001 on: November 13, 2020, 06:24:45 AM »
Re: Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and the total in these securites is larger than the residential equivalent in 2008

Cite ?

sidd

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1002 on: November 13, 2020, 01:54:47 PM »
Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1003 on: November 13, 2020, 02:36:21 PM »
Shared Humanity, you linked household debt for state and local government debt.
And what about liabilities of 150+ trillion dollars?

Whoops!

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11502#:~:text=Federal%20Reserve%20data%20indicate%20that,%243.05%20trillion%20in%20outstanding%20debt.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1004 on: November 13, 2020, 02:59:42 PM »
Re: Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and the total in these securites is larger than the residential equivalent in 2008

Cite ?

sidd

Trying to but I may have been talking out of my ass.  :-[


Total MBS chart as of 2019...The market for MBS products has grown from $9.467 trillion in 2008 to $10.308 trillion in 2019.

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fixed-income-chart/

Data on RMBS from 2008 crisis...Of the $9.467 trillion of MBS securities in 2008, $5.22 trillion or 55% was residential MBS and this was the product that triggered the financial crisis.

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/research-summary/mortgage-backed-securities-and-the-financial-crisis-of-2008-a-post-mortem/

Can't seem to find data that supports my claim that CMBS is larger now than RMBS was in 2008 (I'll keep trying) but the MBS market in total is definitely being impacted by COVID.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/coronavirus-jolts-cmbs-pricing-and-2020-issuance-expectations-57965361

And the MBS market hasn't collapsed like it did in 2008 because the Feds started buying this shit and now owns $2 trillion or 20% of the marketable MBS.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

In fact, the Feds went all in on the markets in March of this year as can be seen in the chart below. What needs to be understood is that, prior to 2008, the Feds had never held any assets long term. They did purchase and sell treasuries overnight in order to provide needed liquidity in the Repo market. A functioning Repo market is essential to provide liquidity to banks.

I will restate my position made earlier. The world economy has never recovered from the debt crisis of 2008. Debt has, in fact, grown dramatically since then.



« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 05:28:18 PM by Shared Humanity »

Bruce Steele

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1005 on: November 13, 2020, 10:15:47 PM »
SH, The description at the top of the chart is talking trillions but the y axis is labeled “ millions  “ ? 

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1006 on: November 14, 2020, 01:06:57 AM »
SH, The description at the top of the chart is talking trillions but the y axis is labeled “ millions  “ ?

It is confusing the way it is labeled. If you look at the label at the bottom of the chart, it is total assets in millions of dollars. So the y axis is 6 or 7 millions of millions or 7 trillion.

Here is link to chart.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1007 on: November 14, 2020, 03:44:41 AM »
Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Gerntocratis#1

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1008 on: November 14, 2020, 04:26:38 AM »
Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.

Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1009 on: November 14, 2020, 05:09:04 AM »
Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.


Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/diamond-princess

Gerntocratis#1

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1010 on: November 14, 2020, 05:21:21 AM »
Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.


Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/diamond-princess

How is that possible? This article says the longest case recorded so far is 61 days, yet there's supposedly 40 people who have it still after 8 months?

https://www.newsweek.com/viral-shedding-covid-longest-period-contagious-1536387

Rodius

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1011 on: November 14, 2020, 05:56:28 AM »
Speaking of cruise liners..... remember the Diamond Princess?
712 cases in total
13 dead.
There are still 40 active cases.
And 4 are still critically ill.

How long has that been now?

I am going off https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That was february so ling time age. Do you have a link for the active cases?

Pretty sure those numbers have not been updated for a long time, there are certainly not 40 active cases after 8-9 months.


Well, turns out there are 40 actives cases.......

https://epidemic-stats.com/coronavirus/diamond-princess

How is that possible? This article says the longest case recorded so far is 61 days, yet there's supposedly 40 people who have it still after 8 months?

https://www.newsweek.com/viral-shedding-covid-longest-period-contagious-1536387

Well, I don't know.
Either a newspaper is wrong or the people tracking the virus are wrong.
The information is sourced from the WHO and other sources.... links given at the base of the site.

I would deep dive into this more but I am short on time... of others don't double check this by tomorrow, I will do it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1012 on: November 14, 2020, 07:52:24 PM »
Re the above...

There are a good few people who are still in hospital months after infection. They may not have the virus, but they are too ill to leave hospital. I do not know if they are still shown as active cases.
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Gerntocratis#1

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1013 on: November 14, 2020, 08:03:01 PM »
Re the above...

There are a good few people who are still in hospital months after infection. They may not have the virus, but they are too ill to leave hospital. I do not know if they are still shown as active cases.

This makes the most sense, as covid does cause failure in many organs of the human body. However, I don't know if they should continue to be listed as an active case if the virus isn't active in their body. They should have another category for people suffering long-term consequences while the virus is no longer active.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1014 on: November 14, 2020, 08:10:55 PM »
Explained: What is a technical recession?
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/what-is-a-technical-recession-indian-economy-coronavirus-7049758/
Quote
Latest RBI bulletin projects contraction for a second consecutive quarter, which means the economy is in a ‘technical recession’. What does it mean, and how is it different from a ‘recession’ and a ‘recessionary phase’?

Coronavirus: What is a recession and how could it affect me?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-recession-could-affect-134520856.html
Quote
The recession is over. The UK saw the best economic growth on record. But times are still hard, and the economy is not actually doing that well.
How can all these things be true at the same time, and why does it matter?

ECB member explains why this recession is very different from any other
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/covid-crisis-is-very-different-from-previous-crisis-ecb-schnabel-says.html
Quote
The current crisis hinges on the services industry, which has almost come to halt.
ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted in a speech that “a large number of people who lost their jobs in the spring left the labour force and stopped looking for work.”
In addition, the ECB is concerned with how the coronavirus crisis is hitting different parts of the population.

Second lockdown in Europe
https://claudiograss.ch/2020/11/second-lockdown-in-europe/
Quote
As the long-awaited “second wave” of the corona pandemic sweeps through Europe, another round of severe restrictions, travel bans and rules that prevent the proper function of international business and trade threatens to once again disrupt all kinds of sectors, including the gold industry.

A Global "Debt Mountain": Beware of This "New Peak"
https://www2.elliottwave.com/affiliates_pr/archives/2020/11/12/A-Global-Debt-Mountain-Beware-of-This-New-Peak-aa.aspx
Quote
A global "debt mountain" has hit a new peak.
Getting back to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, that alarming episode may have only been a preview of what's next.
It does appear that an "epic" deflation is likely.

Coronavirus resurgence threatens U.S. states' revenue gains
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-states/coronavirus-resurgence-threatens-u-s-states-revenue-gains-idUSL1N2HX2CV
Quote
After a few months of improved tax collections, U.S. states’ revenues could fall again as the coronavirus resurges across the nation and negotiations over additional federal economic aid remain at an impasse.

The Long Dark Winter Has Arrived. Why Weren’t We Prepared?
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-long-dark-winter-has-arrived-why-werent-we-prepared
Quote
New U.S. cases topped 150,000 for the first time, and hospitalizations hit another all-time high according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. death toll surpassed 242,000 as more than 900 new fatalities were reported.
California became the second state in the country after Texas to surpass one million total cases.
New York City public schools could close as soon as Monday. School districts nationwide are split on closing plans.
Ohio and Minnesota each topped 7,000 daily cases for the first time since the pandemic began, while Pennsylvania and Indiana reported more than 6,000 cases in a day,

Sorry, Larry Kudlow: Raising Taxes In A Recession Can Make Sense
https://www.forbes.com/sites/taxnotes/2020/11/12/sorry-larry-kudlow-raising-taxes-in-a-recession-can-make-sense/?sh=48394d037dbb
Quote
To be sure, Keynes was generally inclined to cut taxes, rather than raise them, in the face of economic contractions; along with increased spending, that sort of expansionary fiscal policy was a good way to boost aggregate demand. But Keynes also argued — in various works, including The General Theory — that specific tax increases might also be used to speed recovery rather than slow it.

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kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1015 on: November 14, 2020, 08:13:15 PM »
So cute to see you two together.  :)

These cases are ongoing but due to time we know they are not active due to viral shedding.
So you include them if you want to work out the hospital burden (long time care cases, bet these are all passengers).
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oren

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1016 on: November 16, 2020, 11:05:13 AM »
Quote
Working from home meant that many people were saving on everyday costs such as travel, lunch, clothes and cleaning, as well as possibly spending less on socializing. However, the report also said it meant remote workers were "contributing less to the infrastructure of the economy whilst still receiving its benefits."

Templeman said remote workers should pay a levy post-pandemic "in order to smooth the transition process for those who have suddenly been displaced" by the coronavirus crisis.
I shudder at this. For years it was believed that teleworking will reduce unnecessary travel, and with it traffic jams and more importantly, GHG emissions and other pollutants. Now that by some "magic" event many people have finally switched to teleworking, the government is trying to tax them out of it.
In addition, since governments pay heavily for "unprofitable" traffic infrastructure, they actually save a lot if many are working from home permanently. So the rationale for this new tax is very poor too.

kassy

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1017 on: November 16, 2020, 11:10:12 PM »
Some off topic posts removed.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1018 on: November 17, 2020, 05:06:52 PM »
Recession With a Difference: Women Face Special Burden
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/business/economy/women-jobs-economy-recession.html
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Hit hard by job losses and the pandemic’s effect on schooling and child care, American women face short-term difficulties and long-term repercussions.

South Africa after Covid-19: Recovery or Recession
https://www.thecairoreview.com/book-reviews/south-africa-after-covid-19-recovery-or-recession/
Quote
South Africa has had a plethora of economic plans, but most have not been implemented

Low-Income Idahoans Suffering The Most From Pandemic Recession
https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/post/low-income-idahoans-suffering-most-pandemic-recession#stream/0
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According to a new report from the Idaho Center for Fiscal Policy, nearly half of households that make less than $35,000 have seen at least some of their income dry up in the COVID-19 economy.

Fears of double-dip recession rise alongside COVID-19 cases
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/525951-fears-of-double-dip-recession-rise-alongside-covid-19-cases
Quote
A sharp spike in COVID-19 cases across the U.S. is threatening the economic recovery and increasing the odds of a double-dip recession.
Daily coronavirus infections surpassed 100,000 for the first time earlier this month; since then, they have surged past the 150,000 mark. At the same time, congressional leaders appear increasingly unlikely to strike a deal on another COVID-19 relief package, even as another round of key unemployment benefits is set to expire in the coming weeks.
Economists across the political spectrum have consistently warned that sustained growth is dependent on getting the coronavirus under control, with many now viewing the rise in infections with heightened concern.

And to help you get through this recession/depression:

3 Recession Proof Stocks to Buy Now
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/16/3-recession-proof-stocks-to-buy-now/
Quote
Investors worried about a recession should consider leading stocks in the utilities, basic consumer goods, and healthcare sectors.

Why Creativity Is Key During a Recession
https://musebycl.io/musings/why-creativity-key-during-recession
Quote
We've been here before. Don't play it safe
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Grubbegrabben

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1019 on: November 17, 2020, 09:35:24 PM »
China’s ‘Secret Weapon’ Against COVID-19 Won’t Work for Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery
The CCP was able to mobile its people to fight COVID-19. It’s having a harder time convincing Chinese to spend money

https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/chinas-secret-weapon-against-covid-19-wont-work-for-post-pandemic-economic-recovery/

Quote
Because of the lockdown, China transformed itself from the first COVID-19 epicenter to one of the first countries to bring the pandemic under control. As China slowly lifted the lockdown, the government switched its emphasis to economic recovery.
...
the Chinese government tried to repeat the success of its COVID-19 management experience and launched two mobilization efforts. However, the two mobilization efforts, aimed at boosting consumption and reducing unemployment, have failed to recreate the success of the CCP’s COVID-19 containment measures.

vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1020 on: November 18, 2020, 02:31:55 AM »
Walmart Reports Shortages of Toilet Paper and Cleaning Supplies at Some Stores
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/17/business/walmart-toilet-paper-grocery-stores/index.html

Shoppers are once again loading up on paper goods and cleaning supplies in areas of the United States hard hit by rising coronavirus infections, leading to empty shelves at some Walmart stores.

Officials at Walmart (WMT), the largest retailer in the country, said Tuesday that supply chains have not kept up with rising demand, and these goods have been harder to stock consistently in locations with sharp spikes in new virus cases. ... "The specific categories where we have the most strain at the present time would be bath tissue and cleaning supplies."

The retailer also recently resumed counting the number of customers inside its stores as a safety precaution.

Several other leading grocery chains have reimposed limits on toilet paper, paper towels and disinfecting wipes, hoping to keep their shelves stocked.

At Kroger (KR), customers can purchase a maximum of two items when it comes to products like bath tissue, paper towels, disinfecting wipes and hand soap. Giant, a grocery chain in the Northeast, recently put a limit of one on purchases of larger toilet paper and paper towel sizes and four on smaller toilet paper and paper towel sizes.

Around 21% of paper products such as toilet paper and paper towels and 16% of household cleaning products were out of stock during the week ending November 15, according to data from market research firm IRI. Typically, around 5% of products are out of stock.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1021 on: November 18, 2020, 03:11:33 AM »
Voxmundi, I do the shopping and today the toilet paper and paper towel shelves were mostly empty. The other thing that is unobtainium are quart canning jars.  I mean none , anywhere. Lids are hard to find also. I wonder whether the garden seed companies will keep up next spring? Hint hint I think getting next years gardens seeds better get done soon.
 Food preservation is pretty basic stuff, how well are people prepared ?

https://www.post-gazette.com/life/dining/2020/10/15/shortage-Mason-canning-jars-Pittsburgh-COVID-19-Pasqualinos-Bridge-City-Brinery/stories/202010150014

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1022 on: November 20, 2020, 01:36:29 PM »
Covid-19 pandemic is the first time 40% of Americans have experienced food insecurity
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/covid-pandemic-first-time-many-americans-experienced-food-insecurity.html
Quote
About half of those polled say they’ve struggled to afford food, while 37% report skipping meals themselves so there was enough food for their children to eat. Yet 63% said they didn’t realize they were experiencing food insecurity, which is generally defined as when an individual doesn’t have reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable food.

Negative Office Absorption Will Be Worse Than In the Great Recession
https://www.globest.com/2020/11/19/negative-office-absorption-will-be-worse-than-in-the-great-recession/?slreturn=20201020072432
Quote
Office landlords will continue to hemorrhage space over the next couple of quarters.
NAIOP expects office net absorption to be negative 18 million square feet in Q4 2020 and negative 10 million square feet in Q1 2021, a downgrade from its prior office demand forecast. Already, office net absorption contracted 50.7 million square feet in the first three quarters of 2020, according to CBRE.
Add the 50.7 million square feet contracted already with 28 million expected to be lost in Q4 and Q1 and the office market could be looking at a contraction that is more severe than the one experienced during the global financial crisis of 2008, according to NAIOP.

Colombia in recession for the first time since 1999
https://en.mercopress.com/2020/11/18/colombia-in-recession-for-the-first-time-since-1999
Quote
Colombia entered in recession for the first time since 1999 due to the paralysis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, after registering for the second consecutive quarter a contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Latin America’s fourth economy contracted 9% in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2019, although the crash was less than -15.8% recorded between April and June, the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) said Tuesday in a virtual presentation to the media.

Fed’s Kaplan says double-dip recession is a possibility
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-kaplan-says-double-dip-recession-is-a-possibility-11605812995
Quote
Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan said Thursday the economy was slowing and a double-dip recession is possible given the renewed strength of the coronavirus and people slowing down their activity.

Double Dip Recession Is On The Horizon: Harrison
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390509-double-dip-recession-is-on-horizon-harrison
Quote
A double-dip recession in the U.S. is now the base case for the end of this year and going into early next year.
Jobless claims data, which rose today, is the first sign of trouble ahead; the numbers are getting worse and it’s possible the economy won’t just roll over but contract.
December is a month to watch as deadlines approach for the fiscal cliff and the expiration of the CARES Act and the Fed’s emergency lending programs.
Despite these looming threats, financial markets aren’t telegraphing distress, which suggests that investors believe the Fed will ride to the rescue.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1023 on: November 22, 2020, 03:20:33 AM »
November 20 coronavirus news
Canada's largest city is going into lockdown for at least 28 days
Quote
Toronto, Canada's biggest city, is going into lockdown for at least 28 days to limit the spread of Covid-19, according to a news release from the Office of the Premier of Ontario published Friday.

The lockdown will go into effect Monday and it includes Peel Region, which is part of the Greater Toronto Area.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said in the news release that Covid-19 numbers are "rising rapidly in certain regions," adding the lockdown will protect "hospitals, long-term care and retirement homes, and every person in this province." ... 
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-11-20-20-intl/


—— U.S.
The Fed started propping up the markets last fall.  But now the Trump administration wants to assure Biden inherits a failing economy.
The US economy is about to shrink, JPMorgan warns
Quote
The Treasury Department added to the mess Thursday by yanking $455 billion of funds the Federal Reserve was using for emergency lending programs. The Fed issued a statement opposing the move, marking a rare public dispute between the central bank and Treasury Department -— in the middle of a crisis, no less. … This is a bizarre time to remove ammo the Fed is using to fight the crisis.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/economy/economy-coronavirus-jpmorgan/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1024 on: November 23, 2020, 05:19:11 PM »
Spanish banks merge as economic outlook darkens
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/finance/spanish-banks-merge-as-economic-outlook-darkens
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A wave of mergers is sweeping across the Spanish banking sector as lenders face up to a pandemic-induced recession, ultralow interest rates and growing competition from financial technology startups.

Biden team, pushing quick stimulus deal, Prepares for renewed recession
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/business/economy/biden-coronavirus-stimulus-recession.html
Note: I've used up my free articles, so I can't quote.

Banks didn’t cause this recession, but they won’t escape it either
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/11/22/colorado-banks-recession-mortgages-loans/
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Branch closures, heavy loan activity and future defaults are issues Colorado banks have had to face this year

In Coronavirus Recession, the Out-of-Work Turn to GoFundMe
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-coronavirus-recession-the-out-of-work-turn-to-gofundme-11605954600
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More than $100 million pours in as people increasingly use website for help with groceries and rent
But what happens when charity fatigue sets in?

If you want to grasp at straws as you tread water:
Could The End Of The Recession Be Closer Than We Think?
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There are lots of reasons to worry. The third wave continues to get worse, and none of the good news is guaranteed. When we take the outside view, however, and look at the data rather than the headlines, the outlook is much better over time. We can’t ignore the damage and the human tragedy of what is happening now. But, equally, we should not ignore the positive signs that say we are still moving forward and that, on many fronts, things are better now—and will be better still in the future—than they seem.

Nigeria slumps back into recession as Covid bites
https://www.ft.com/content/ea70f0b4-5f13-423b-b1ed-6d6c424d1b91
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Africa’s biggest economy has sunk into its second recession in less than five years, battered by the oil price crash brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

G20 leaders tackle coronavirus crisis, global recession
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/21/g20-leaders-to-discuss-coronavirus-crisis-global-recession
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Alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change is one of the main themes to be discussed at the Saudi-hosted G20 summit.

But hey, at least the Food Banks have a greater selection of food than our great-grandparents' soup kitchens!  ;)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« Reply #1025 on: November 24, 2020, 01:49:49 PM »
Hyperinflationary Great Depression Coming – John Williams
https://usawatchdog.com/hyperinflationary-great-depression-coming-john-williams/
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Williams expects to see some very large inflation because of all the stimulus coming and predicts, “The more left we go, the more rapid will be the demise of the dollar.  Eventually, it will be a hyperinflation in the United States.  What I am looking at here is this evolving into a hyperinflationary Great Depression.  To save yourself, you have to preserve your wealth, your dollar assets.  To do that, you have to convert your dollars into physical gold and silver, precious metals and just hold them.  They will retain value over time as opposed to paper dollars that will effectively become worthless.  You’ll be getting a lot of money from the government, and they will keep giving you more and more and more, but that’s going to be an environment of rising and rising inflation.  It’s not necessarily going to buy you more. . . . Hyperinflation will bring political disruption. . . . Hyperinflation is a form of default.  Gold is telling us hyperinflation is straight ahead of us.”

Millions of Americans Expect to Lose Their Homes as Covid Rages
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-americans-expect-lose-homes-212124538.html
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Millions of Americans expect to face eviction by the end of this year, adding to the suffering inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic raging across the U.S.
About 5.8 million adults say they are somewhat to very likely to face eviction or foreclosure in the next two months, according to a survey completed Nov. 9 by the U.S. Census Bureau. That accounts for a third of the 17.8 million adults in households that are behind on rent or mortgage payments.

Great Inflation Debate: When and How Big?
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/great-inflation-debate-when-and-how-big
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The market is starting to see a Fed hike on the distant horizon. This is how a shift in thinking begins. The driving reason for this change seems to be a resurgence of inflation over booming real growth.

America’s Economy Cannot Survive Another Lockdown, And The Cult Of The Reset Knows It
https://www.birchgold.com/news/americas-economy-cannot-survive-lockdown/
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The U.S. economy has been on the verge of collapse for at least a decade, ever since the crash of 2008 and the subsequent explosion in fiat stimulus from the Federal Reserve. While the mainstream media has always claimed that central bankers “saved” us from another Great Depression, what they actually did was set us up for a far worse scenario — a stagflationary implosion of our society.

‘Southeast has just been hammered’: Economists try to see what’s ahead for Alaska’s pandemic recession
https://www.alaskapublic.org/2020/11/22/southeast-has-just-been-hammered-economists-try-to-see-whats-ahead-for-alaskas-pandemic-recession/
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The COVID-19 pandemic came at a particularly rough time for Alaska. The state was just beginning to climb out of its recession from the 2015 oil-crash, and Fried said everyone expected that growth to continue this year — especially in the tourism industry
Instead, as the pandemic unfolded and shut down the tourism season, businesses closed and a record number of Alaskans found themselves out of work.

UK risks double-dip recession amid second Covid lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/23/uk-double-dip-recession-second-covid-lockdown
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Economy shrinks as service sector suffers steepest fall in activity since May

EDIT: Few more on inflation
Inflation May Be About to Pick Up Sharply
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-may-pick-sharply-060002710.html
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It may seem strange to be worried about inflation in the midst of a global recession, a pandemic and huge political ructions in the U.S., but I strongly suspect that it’s about to pick up both soon and sharply. How fast this happens depends on how quickly the developed world recovers over the next few months, but pressures are building. As has been the case for many years, global inflation has “Made in Asia” stamped all over it. This time, though, that’s likely to be compounded by much greater supply constraints in the economy.

High inflation in times of Covid-19 will hit us hard
https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/high-inflation-in-times-of-covid-19-will-hit-us-hard-918475.html
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In October 2020, inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), stood at 7.61%. This is the highest inflation level since March 2014, when it was at 7.63%. Let’s look at this issue in all its dimensions.

Lessons from Japan: coping with low rates and inflation after the pandemic
https://www.ft.com/content/da9086f7-bfa5-4d1c-83d0-bea5fe41945d
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Fearing prolonged stagnation, governments are looking to Tokyo’s experience during the past three decades   
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 02:08:54 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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