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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #100 on: March 28, 2020, 12:33:30 AM »
GFS shows March ending with a blast of above normal temperature for the Chukchi, Beaufort, and much of the CAB
http://204.197.0.54/MEmodel/CR-GFS-Arctic2020-03-31.png

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #101 on: March 28, 2020, 01:17:30 AM »
Weird situation in the Bering strait in the coming days, where the wind will blow north and south, most likely splitting the ice.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2006
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #102 on: March 28, 2020, 04:04:36 AM »
Weird situation in the Bering strait in the coming days, where the wind will blow north and south, most likely splitting the ice.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2006

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Rodius

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #103 on: March 28, 2020, 04:25:50 AM »
Weird situation in the Bering strait in the coming days, where the wind will blow north and south, most likely splitting the ice.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2006

Strong man tearing apart the phone book.

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I asked my 11 year old if he knew what a phone book was. He said, "Yeah, those books with phone numbers that were used in the olden days."

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #104 on: March 28, 2020, 01:01:02 PM »
 After reviewing Worldview images since feb 20, '20, and while taking into account that these are daily images of local noon, I only saw only ONE day of the last 36 in which a southerly or easterly wind was not blowing exported ice into individual bergs into oblivion in the relatively warm waters of the eastern GS.
 The splitting of this ice into individual bergs greatly accelerates the melt process by depriving these ice chunks of brotherly chill and exposing all sides to relatively warm (>0C) water.

 The massive and accelerated melting of Fram-exported ice will have a debilitating effect on the central ice mass's ability to fight against the enemy known as the heat of summer, especially with this event having happened so early in the season. 

 Frozen rivers often have an event when the ice breaks up and starts to flow downriver.  The term escapes me, but were it not for the CAA's refrigerating effect, the import thru the Bering and export thru Fram straits made it seem that the entire arctic ice mass was ready to break up and just flow (I would hope that it stabilizes, but it may not if S/E wind directions continue over the GS). 
With respect to all the great providers (there are so many) on this blog, the overall view I have concerning our ice is both exciting and horrifying. 

It's kinda ironic that it is taking an acute virus scare for many people (nobody here) to stop and understand the great peril that Global Warming and a BOE represents.  Because they are now stuck at home and only now have the time to recognize what happens when you're not nice to Mother Nature, it seems people have become so bored that they are reading.  A great asset (reading) to those that don't want to repeat regretable, preventable histories of failures in the protection of said mother.

Anyone can make a gif for their own viewing of the GS (or anywhere else) over the last FORTY days on Worldview and be as horrified and yet excited as me.

I'm not exaggerating when I say that everywhere that I go in real life, as well as online, I try to enlighten others concerning the future through recalling the history of some wonder of nature that no longer exists.  I am not shy.  I am driven by a vision of my grandchildren's future in which a frozen arctic is only a memory, but i am not a doomsayer.  I believe that thru education, our ability to progress as a species is enhanced and I am passionate about this subject.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here.  Forgive me for my rant, Neven, and i hope this post wasn't OT or otherwise out of place.  It was an effort at self-help by an individual with too good a memory.  It was beneficial :)

td
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #105 on: March 28, 2020, 01:29:53 PM »
Welcome, Dave. :)

Just one thing: Icebergs is ice originating from calving glaciers. The ice coming down the Fram is mostly not icebergs. They are ice floes (frozen seawater).

Ice floes are several centimeters or meters thick. Icebergs, on the other hand, can be several hundred meters thick.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #106 on: March 28, 2020, 01:50:23 PM »
I'm a bit mystified by the GS mentioned in a few posts above. Is it meant to be short for the Gulf Stream? Doesn't really make sense to me, e.g. "the relatively arm waters of the eastern GS" - where is that?
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kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #107 on: March 28, 2020, 01:58:05 PM »
I would opt for Greenland Sea.

Basically when using abbreviations that are not general like AMOC type the full version once before shortening it is clearer that way.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #108 on: March 28, 2020, 02:13:05 PM »
Sounds reasonable if we are talking Fram Export - but why the "relatively warm waters of the eastern GS"?  Where you have floating ice in the Greenland Sea, the surface is at the melting point (-1.8C) and going outside of the ice covered areas, the temps are not really any higher, and nowhere above 0C.

However, looking at the ice edge all the way down from Svalbard to well south of Iceland, rapid melt is obviously ongoing, judginng by the aptly mis-named "froth".

Not that there is anything unusual about this situation, Fram export is not in any way different this winter from other winters, judging by Wipneus' charts.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 02:18:07 PM by binntho »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #109 on: March 28, 2020, 03:30:53 PM »
Weird situation in the Bering strait in the coming days, where the wind will blow north and south, most likely splitting the ice.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2006

Strong man tearing apart the phone book.

Heh.  Everyone still get that reference?

I asked my 11 year old if he knew what a phone book was. He said, "Yeah, those books with phone numbers that were used in the olden days."
That was too funny...  ;D Reminds of that video of a small child that was wondering how you could text with an old school rotary dial phone.

Welcome to ASIF tybeedave! Good post! It's going to be a crazy melting season this year with the sun beating down unabated on the planet. Exciting indeed, but scary as hell!
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #110 on: March 28, 2020, 03:43:09 PM »
Not that there is anything unusual about this situation, Fram export is not in any way different this winter from other winters, judging by Wipneus' charts.

Looking at the Wipneus graph (attached below) seems to show below average or average Fram export until mid-Jan. After that looks like more times above than below average.

This is maybe confirmed by the Greenland Sea sea ice area graph (attached), which shows sea ice increasing from below the 2010's average in January to well above that 10 year average by mid-March. Seems to me that an educated guess says at least some of that is due to increased Fram export.

ps: From purely occasional random looks at Nullschool wind direction and strength, perhaps some of that ice exported from the CAB was shoved into the Barents?



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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #111 on: March 28, 2020, 09:03:48 PM »
Look at what's about to happen in Greenland.  ??? The melting season seems to come early this year...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/1800Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-27.87,70.00,1746/loc=-45.554,65.374

And all this is happening because of the jetstream that curled in onto itself and became a giant high pressure system that's creating a high pressure "storm" on the surface.

Has anyone seen anything like this before? Is this the future of the jetstream? Giant vortices circulating the planet and wreaking havoc?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-23.29,64.74,1003
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #112 on: March 28, 2020, 09:09:30 PM »
Looking at the Wipneus graph
This is maybe confirmed by the Greenland Sea sea ice area graph<>
Volume is similar, area is higher = thickness is lower.

peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #113 on: March 29, 2020, 03:24:22 AM »
I remember that 2012 there is a relatively large ice area in North Atlantic Ocean in spring. I wonder the large sea ice area will amplify the AMOC effect although it has been weaken for recent decades. We all know low arctic sea ice area will weaken the North Atlantic current. The large sea ice area in Atlantic Ocean will accelerate the ocean current exchange because more salinity and cold temperature. The momentum of ocean current will be helpful in melting the summer arctic sea ice. Together with  the high pressure and temperature in mid latitude will help to form cyclones in North Atlantic arctic region. All these will push more ice from CAB to Barrent Sea and Greenland Sea which will amplify the AMOC current.

All in All, all these effect will accelerate the ocean heat exchange with arctic sea ice than ever before.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #114 on: March 29, 2020, 09:00:10 AM »
March 28th, 2020:
     13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.   :P

Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #115 on: March 29, 2020, 09:38:27 AM »
good morning all !

blumenkraft, ty for the heads up.  You're right they are not icebergs, i should have stuck with 'chunks of ice' or ice floes.  Sometimes I forget that these posts should be necessarily specific.

GS is the Greenland Sea, I thought I had seen the abbrev. in the glossary.  I shall try to not make up designations in the future.

binntho, I didn't mean the water directly adjacent to the floes but just a little way out past the melt. The attached image from nullschool illustrates the 'warmth' directly south of Prins Karl's Isl. which only increases as one goes in a southerly direction.

kassy...noted

"Fram export is not in any way different this winter from other winters, judging by Wipneus' charts."  Concerning Wipneus' charts.  The Info that he provides is of immense value, however, a visual comparison between this year and last shows quite a difference.  Image attached.

Thank you, Freegrass, and yes, your nick says it all.  why pay for something that nature provides freely :)

peterlvmeng, i agree, this is related to the point that I'm trying to make.  The amount of heat exchange through the ice melt that has been occurring in the Greenland Sea is huge.  There is a very large amount of heat also in the Barents Sea.  The potential for an extreme melt of the CAB by the heat transferred north by Atlantic currents and through the Bering St is real. One might note that these currents of relatively warm water continue along the coast past Novaya Zemlya where a melt is also currently occurring.

As a side note,  I can remember when Novaya Zemlya was surrounded by fast ice year-round.



td
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 09:49:07 AM by tybeedave »
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tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #116 on: March 29, 2020, 10:01:48 AM »
Freegrass, all I can say about your 2nd nullschool link, in your recent post, of the anticyclone is

WOW !!!

tks

td
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #117 on: March 29, 2020, 10:25:48 AM »
We are mentioned in Paul Beckwith' latest video. :)

He talks about the shifting of the polar vortex towards Greenland in this video.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #118 on: March 29, 2020, 10:42:35 AM »
March 28th, 2020:
     13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.   :P

Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final

Welp, that escalated quickly.   :-[
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tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #119 on: March 29, 2020, 10:45:40 AM »
blumenkraft,

at the risk of appearing as mushy as much of the ice in the cryosphere,

you are indeed a 'flower power'

you do a really great job on so many threads

thank you

do you sleep?   j/k

td
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #120 on: March 29, 2020, 10:55:23 AM »
March 28th, 2020:
     13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.   :P

Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final

But not as great as the 1999 UEFA Champions League final. You would need a BOE for that !  :)

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #121 on: March 29, 2020, 10:57:43 AM »
thank you

do you sleep?


Aww, thanks, Dave! :)

Yes, according to my profile stats, i do sleep. ;)
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VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #122 on: March 29, 2020, 12:38:48 PM »
It looks increasingly possible that the Laxton Sea materialises this summer as forecasted by the late University College London (UCL) researcher in his seminal forecast on the Arctic Ocean sea ice trend. Variability remains great, so the blue ocean event is perhaps, hopefully, still just a remote possibility.

March 28th, 2020:
     13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.   :P

Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final

But not as great as the 1999 UEFA Champions League final. You would need a BOE for that !  :)

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #123 on: March 29, 2020, 12:48:17 PM »
Bering Strait. Crackification north of Alaska is going fast.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #124 on: March 29, 2020, 01:20:23 PM »
td, thanks for your thoughts on Fram export and the GS situation.
ASCAT animations posted by uniquorn from time to time show an increase in Fram export in the last few weeks. A big chunk of the CAB shifted southwards. I fail to recall what thread had such an animation recently, but I recommend to seek it and watch it.

Edit: well here it is from upthread

An overview of sea ice movement as seen by ascat, jan1-mar23
The amsr2 low concentration area in/around the Beaufort correlates quite well with the darker area on ascat but may also be related to the recent heavy cloud cover.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #125 on: March 29, 2020, 02:12:12 PM »
The sea ice is so thin around ellesmere island, and look at that volume graph...  ???


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #126 on: March 29, 2020, 02:22:52 PM »
That is a hell of a dipole anomaly models are showing it doesn't last very long though but man that is monstrous begins at June or mid to late May while things could really get cooking early this year
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #127 on: March 29, 2020, 02:58:22 PM »
Welcome back, Frivolousz!

Hey, what's your take on missing data due to fewer airplanes and, subsequential, how reliable the weather models are at the moment?
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #128 on: March 29, 2020, 03:00:36 PM »
We all know low arctic sea ice area will weaken the North Atlantic current.

I didn't. Do you have any supportive evidence for this claim? Or any of the below:

Quote
The large sea ice area in Atlantic Ocean will accelerate the ocean current exchange because more salinity and cold temperature. The momentum of ocean current will be helpful in melting the summer arctic sea ice. Together with  the high pressure and temperature in mid latitude will help to form cyclones in North Atlantic arctic region. All these will push more ice from CAB to Barrent Sea and Greenland Sea which will amplify the AMOC current.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #129 on: March 29, 2020, 03:05:11 PM »

"Fram export is not in any way different this winter from other winters, judging by Wipneus' charts."  Concerning Wipneus' charts.  The Info that he provides is of immense value, however, a visual comparison between this year and last shows quite a difference.

No it doesn't.

There is slghtly more extent and more area and the last couple of months have seen slightly more voluminous export, but nothing to shout about and nothing out of the ordinary and it wil not effect this coming melting season in any way.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #130 on: March 29, 2020, 03:13:34 PM »
last couple of months have seen slightly more voluminous export

From what i see in the Sunday SAR movies, i would second that. But this is only my impression, i can't deliver any data on that.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #131 on: March 29, 2020, 05:59:57 PM »
It looks to me like the whole top 75m[?] of the ocean is moving in concert very slowly toward/out of Fram, at least in that quarter of the Arctic. There's water being drawn in from the Pacific whether it's related or not, and the ice there seems to be outpacing the water for now. So a huge amount of turbulence coming, and then it looks like there could be a big storm in a few [3-5]days not a promising start.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #132 on: March 29, 2020, 06:47:41 PM »
Here we go with the Sunday movies.  ;D

Fram export via SAR is missing the 24th (never came in) and today (flight path sucks so i didn't include it).
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #133 on: March 29, 2020, 06:49:08 PM »
Ice drift map.

CAA still hold'n strong!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #134 on: March 29, 2020, 06:50:51 PM »
And last but not least, the 7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #135 on: March 29, 2020, 08:42:49 PM »
nothing out of the ordinary
One thing that is different, or that I haven't seen before, is the large leads that have developed since feb15 making their way around north greenland so early in the season. With >80km/h winds forecast on apr1 we are likely to see them open up more.
Kaleschke SIC leads, oct1-mar29
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 09:01:05 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #136 on: March 29, 2020, 08:50:47 PM »
Amazing! Thanks so much, Uniquorn. :)
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #137 on: March 30, 2020, 02:53:22 AM »
Thank you as usual uniquorn.
To anyone who thinks nothing unusual has happened re Fram export, I recommend to play the animation and not focus on Fram itself, where a trickle from the northeast can be seen all winter, but on some random ice shape below the pole. One can see how the ice moves in a random walk fashion for several months, mostly moving nowhere with a slight southern drift. But then starting around mid-February a big sweep comes along, and the ice from the pole moves all the way to the Fram finish line, a distance of more than 1000 km IIRC. This is significant volume gone, and an important piece of the Arctic's defenses against the melting season.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #138 on: March 30, 2020, 02:56:42 PM »
One thing that is different, or that I haven't seen before, is the large leads that have developed since feb15 making their way around north greenland so early in the season. With >80km/h winds forecast on apr1 we are likely to see them open up more.
Kaleschke SIC leads, oct1-mar29
Anybody else with historical perspective on how unusual it is for (what I think should thick) ice just north of Greenland to be fractured this early in the season?  Seems very strange and significant to me, but I don't have the years of observation to compare it to.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #139 on: March 30, 2020, 03:12:03 PM »
Thanks uniquorn. Great work.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #140 on: March 30, 2020, 06:04:18 PM »
historical perspective
It's difficult to compress a long time series into a small enough file size so this is 6.5MB for ascat fram export 2010-2020. The present episode doesn't look like the worst thing that has happened (yet).
I can remove this after 47hrs if it causes problems to low bandwidth users.

Also large, but not auto downloaded is worldview, terra modis, closest non cloudy day to mar29, 2000-2020. Medium contrast has been applied to highlight leads.
Some years look worse, 2010 looks bad in a different way. click to run

uni-hamburg amsr2uhh, caa and nth greenland, 2012-2018 can be found here
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 06:30:12 PM by uniquorn »

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #141 on: March 30, 2020, 10:23:38 PM »
ty uniquorn,

your movie may be the best i have even seen on asif
i'm alarmed even more than i was.
great work, i have low bandwidth but i think it would be a travesty for you to remove it. it is the highlight of the whole forum....now i'm going to watch it again...and again...
i wish i could post it in every forum i could find, even FB :)

td
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #142 on: March 30, 2020, 11:36:04 PM »
Thanks Uniquorn.

That was one big lead in March 2010. 15 km wide just above Ellesmere.


Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #143 on: March 31, 2020, 12:07:28 AM »
Nice work, thanks uniquorn!  I think that gets the Academy Award for technical achievement in Fram Strait documentation.  The different views complement each other and the time series overview provides superb historical context.

    After repeated watchings, my takeaway impression is that the ice in the north of Greenland - Fram Strait regions is very dynamic.  I should have known that from the analysis shown in:
"Spatiotemporal Variability of Sea Ice in the Arctic's Last Ice Area"
https://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083722# (link courtesy of blumenkraft) but the visual impression from 10 years of images is more convincing at a gut level.  While the interannual variability gets visually swamped by the within-year melt season - freezing season patterns, the overall impression is how it's always changing and that spring 2020 is not obviously different than in earlier years.

     That said, indicators of volume and thickness say that not only is the long term ASI decline continuing, but 2020 is heading into the melt season in wounded condition.   As others have noted, the supposedly strong refreeze in Jan - Feb 2020 looks like an easily reversed flash in the pan, i.e. weak thin ice that temporarily adds to the Extent value but is not indicative of improvement to the long term health of the ASI.

    I didn't see direct relevance of the Nullschool windspeed at 250 hPa image posted by Freegrass (important for steering weather patterns at jet stream height, but not directly influential like surface winds that interact with ice).  But that got me to check today's Nullschool and Climate Reanalyzer surface winds and temperature anomalies.  Those show what seems to be a significantly large and strong wind field from the Bering Strait bringing in unusually warm air almost reaching the North Pole.  And another large area of surface wind that is bringing warm air from the south directly toward north Greenland.  As or the "Polar Vortex", we need to define our terms and choose the right pressure level to distinguish between the stratospheric and tropospheric polar vortexes. 

     While not dramatically stronger than normal, the recently robust Fram Strait drift and export measures are another setup.  The occurrence of leads north of Greenland does not seem unprecedented in the noisy record over the previous 10 years in uniquorn's animations, but the overall ASI situation seems sensitive to rapid losses if strong melt season conditions arrive.  2020 could be a wild ride.

BTW - nice explanation of leads vs cracks vs polynas at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead_(sea_ice)
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 05:19:47 AM by Glen Koehler »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #144 on: March 31, 2020, 12:27:24 PM »
ascat day60-89 comparison (or closest available day), 2010-2020. First year ice distinguishable by location and darkness. click to run
Maybe Niall will measure the movement :)

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #145 on: March 31, 2020, 12:52:26 PM »
Thanks so much, Uniquorn.

So,  (almost) any year has a clockwise movement, do i see that correctly?

Is this the Coriolis force we see here?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #146 on: March 31, 2020, 01:33:48 PM »
Fram export will get another boost this week.
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #147 on: March 31, 2020, 11:24:58 PM »
Fram export will get another boost this week.

As if it needed one!
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johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #148 on: March 31, 2020, 11:43:36 PM »
Thanks uniquorn, I guess we'll all see what we want, for me what's most striking is the apparent direct movement from Bering to Fram in 3 of the last 4 years with this year clearly the most pronounced. We're half-way between peak tides so i'm wondering if the full moon tides around the 8th accelerate or punctuate it, all down to atmospherics for now.
Looking at the ice face-ing N.A. and the fancy hair, maybe this should be in pareidolia too?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #149 on: April 01, 2020, 12:23:26 AM »
Has anyone else noticed this odd protrusion between northern greenland and Svalbard island. It has been there for a while and it looks like it should just break off but it hasn't. Or is it normal?