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wallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2650 on: July 13, 2020, 02:59:17 PM »
And here is the whole picture SST wise. Click to play.

Would appear that a swag of warmer water is headed through the Bering strait and quite rapidly. Will watch with great interest.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2651 on: July 13, 2020, 03:14:40 PM »
Compaction towards the Pole can indeed protect the ice - it is bunched together, defended by the effect of ice on the weather around it, whereas dispersed ice can more easily meet warmed waters, higher surface salinity, higher air temps and even some waves. In addition, should the ice temain in a more northerly latitude, it will receive lower insolation in August.
OTOH, this compaction also comes with clearer sky, the nemesis of the ice in July. And the more northerly latitude actually receives more insolation at the moment, if I am not mistaken.
Besides, all this moving around hastens bottom melt. All in all, not good.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2652 on: July 13, 2020, 03:43:12 PM »
I wanted to offer a more detailed examination of current events in the CAA based on the 7/12 Worldview, which gives a passably clear image of a lot of the region. Spoiler: It isn't good.

First, the state of the Crack. On the west, there is open water leading from the Beaufort Sea along the north coast of Banks Island, past Prince Patrick, and now all the way to Brock. Meanwhile, on the CAA's east flank, open water stretches along Ellesmere Island and across Nansen Sound to the coast of Alex Heiberg. In between is a vast, wide "river" of fragmented ice. You can see the contrast between this -- apparently the new normal of Crack behavior -- and what the ice should look like most clearly by examining the Arctic Ocean outlets of the PGAS and the Peary Channel. Last year, the rotation of the central pack turned the Crack into a vacuum, pulling ice north out of the CAA channels and then exporting it west to the Beaufort.  That's especially bad for the CAA, because it destroys the remaining MYI reserves in a brutally efficient fashion (some such exported ice may survive the summer in Beaufort as it did last year, but it is, ultimately, doomed).

Second, I want to point out a couple areas where rapid fracture is underway. The CAA does retain older, harder ice than many other regions of the Arctic. In combination with the typical breakup patterns of fast and fast-adjacent ice, that makes some of the CAA channels prone to breaking up into large, impressive ice blocks. In better years, southerly export of these blocks is limited by traffic flow rates (that's the vaunted garlic press), and northerly export should have been minimal to zero. In this year, well...? Right now, in the south, we're seeing fragmentation at the Belcher Channel. Last year, this area was under cloud throughout mid-July, but we're a solid week ahead of 2018 here. Meanwhile, there's quite a bit of action at the mouth of the M'Clure Strait; this Beufort-adjacent passage did sometimes break up even in non-Crack years, but it's a place to watch for 2020. Although most of M'Clure cleared last year, the Viscount Melville Sound held out (keeping the Parry Channel from opening completely). Now, Viscount Melville is under cloud right now, so it's tough to judge the health of the channel in its entirety. A lot may depend on whether that big block of ice anchored by Banks and Eglinton Islands holds out for awhile; in 2016, it didn't, and 2016 was a bad year for that part of the CAA.

For slightly less immediate areas of concern, I'm always keeping a watchful eye on the PGAS. There's not much to say there right now. The ice doesn't look good on Worldview, but action here will wait until later in the season. Also waiting until later in the season is the tiny body of water called Wilkins Strait. Wilkins is important because it was a champion holdout against the damage dealt in 2019. It's under high cloud right now, and so details are tough. I don't think significant melt or breakup has occurred here, but there are features on Worldview that may portend weakness: one between Borden Island and the "finger" of MacKenzie King, and a wider feature between Borden and Brock.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2653 on: July 13, 2020, 03:44:32 PM »
...  But the last few days melt across the Atlantic Front from Svalbard to Severnaya Zemlya looks to be more than insolation can do alone.  That looks like Atlantic water attacking the entire front right up to the Nansen ( or even past ) to me!

Remember to also consider the effects of the wind pushing the ice front. It has been pushing it in a somewhat westerly direction and also somewhat north -- see reply #2601 above and its figure, posted by Sambuccu.

Good point Slow Wing, that motion does look like it could explain much of the sudden Atlantic retreat.  Should have checked that first.  Will be interesting to see if the retreat continues much past where it is, would normally expect it not to.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2654 on: July 13, 2020, 03:55:54 PM »
The increase in the BSC over the past decade, especially in September and October has transported warm salty water into the Chukchi sea region and it has subducted along the shelf margin into the 30 to 100 m depths in the Beaufort sea. This is important because the stored heat and salinity is affecting the melting in the Beaufort gyre right now as the gyre spins up under persistent high pressure. That's why I think that the Beaufort ice will melt out. The sudbuction of warm moderately salty summer water into the Beaufort gyre is now coming back to affect the ice.

Compaction of the ice in the central Arctic will keep us from seeing a "blue ocean" this September. There is some good news in all of this blue sky and melting.

Mercator models the currents in the Arctic ocean. You can see the current spinning up along the Alaskan shelf margin at 30 m depth in this animation.
 http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20200401/20200713/3/2

If you look closely at Mercator's animation of the 300m salinity you can see increasing salinity along the Alaskan shelf edge over the past 6 weeks. Uniquorn has posted a number of animations over at the salinity thread or you can make your own animation at Mercator Ocean.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2655 on: July 13, 2020, 04:06:41 PM »
There is a worldview animation of Beaufort, apr-jul10 here (large files)

uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, jun1-jul11. click to run (6.8MB)
Bremen uses a 6.25km grid, the Hamburg grid is 3.125km. For me, the Hamburg presentation works much better with overlays.

Oh my word!!!  I am used to Atlantic waters ploughing their way through the Barents Sea ice halfway between Novaya Zemlya and FJL.  Then hooking north and scouring the ice out of the channel just east of FJL and west of the Kara Shelf only to stop just north of FJL where it drops into the Nansen and goes under the Arctic Surface Water and becomes separated from the ice.  But the last few days melt across the Atlantic Front from Svalbard to Severnaya Zemlya looks to be more than insolation can do alone.  That looks like Atlantic water attacking the entire front right up to the Nansen ( or even past ) to me!



Some thoughts, not based on experience:  Current weather has the Arctic ice cap rotating clockwise towards this bathymetric line (where the Arctic seafloor suddenly plunges downwards, and warm, saline Atlantic waters disappear into the depths). 

It might look as if nothing is happening here under these conditions, but in fact a lot of ice will be lost.  This ice melting might seem to be occurring in some other Arctic seas, but the ice will be just being rotated to the toasty Atlantic front and vanishing there.  (Admittedly, compaction might be taking the ice edge in this area towards the pole right now, rather than melting).

First image is for July 8 position, second for July 12.  Red line approximately marks the 200m submarine contour

Nice.  Melt due to AW seems to go down differently as you suggest.  Seems to me Insolation creates more of a widespread multi stage process of breakup and then slow dissipation.  AW impinging into the ice just seems to attack the edge however thick it is and chew it back and is visually harder to distinguish from other phenomena.  Definitely the Atlantic front, which so often is short on action after the Barents clears, is interesting at the moment.

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2656 on: July 13, 2020, 04:50:00 PM »
interesting that on Worldview the area appeared as grayish, not really bluish, leading to the conclusion that very bluish images contain even more melt ponds, perhaps much more.


There is around 7cm of snow in that location that could make a difference between greyish ice with melt ponds and blueish ice with melt ponds that has no more snow laying on top.

Just an idea for an explanation, further it perhaps matters whether the resolution is larger or smaller than the size of the average melt pond to make up the color shown.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 05:11:54 PM by igs »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2657 on: July 13, 2020, 05:00:24 PM »
Large areas with a low ice concentration appeared in the Beaufort Sea.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2658 on: July 13, 2020, 06:25:19 PM »
Nice.  Melt due to AW seems to go down differently as you suggest.  Seems to me Insolation creates more of a widespread multi stage process of breakup and then slow dissipation.  AW impinging into the ice just seems to attack the edge however thick it is and chew it back and is visually harder to distinguish from other phenomena.  Definitely the Atlantic front, which so often is short on action after the Barents clears, is interesting at the moment.

As we agree  :), the Atlantic margin of the ice can seem static while being an active melt site.  And to back that up a bit, b/c one can see more in closeup, here is the current ice margin to the W of FJL, fairly visible through some ribbony clouds.  Evidence of melting, esp. melting streamers, all along the front.

And a random bonus pic. Ice S of the Fram Strait, almost dissolving into the Greenland Sea. 
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 06:33:57 PM by Pagophilus »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2659 on: July 13, 2020, 08:18:59 PM »
WOW THE 00Z EURO IS FREAKING INSANE AGAIN!!


Click to animate

« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 08:32:23 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2660 on: July 13, 2020, 08:32:01 PM »
12z Euro still has the big circular beautiful terrifying High pressure right in the middle of Arctic on Day 5.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2661 on: July 13, 2020, 08:48:01 PM »
Compaction towards the Pole can indeed protect the ice - it is bunched together, defended by the effect of ice on the weather around it, whereas dispersed ice can more easily meet warmed waters, higher surface salinity, higher air temps and even some waves. In addition, should the ice temain in a more northerly latitude, it will receive lower insolation in August.
OTOH, this compaction also comes with clearer sky, the nemesis of the ice in July. And the more northerly latitude actually receives more insolation at the moment, if I am not mistaken.
Besides, all this moving around hastens bottom melt. All in all, not good.
Oren, this could not be better explained. And while I also agree on the effect of certain storms, there are other atmospheric patterns that can really blow the central pack, literally, combining both a strong ridge and a moderate storm, aka dipole, and pushing an enormous blow of continental warmth over the pack, something the forecast is showing in about a week. Although this is not the classical dipole, the remaining ESS ice is going to disappear overnight if the 1-week prediction verifies, and that would be quite an event, we have been watching some ESS ice to resist until september most of the years.

Edit. Attached a cropped image of the latest Siberian blow 1 week from now according to ECMWF 12Z. It gets worse beyond for ESS... we'll see.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 09:24:54 PM by sailor »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2662 on: July 13, 2020, 09:24:41 PM »
The increase in the BSC over the past decade, especially in September and October has transported warm salty water into the Chukchi sea region and it has subducted along the shelf margin into the 30 to 100 m depths in the Beaufort sea. This is important because the stored heat and salinity is affecting the melting in the Beaufort gyre right now as the gyre spins up under persistent high pressure. That's why I think that the Beaufort ice will melt out. The sudbuction of warm moderately salty summer water into the Beaufort gyre is now coming back to affect the ice.

Compaction of the ice in the central Arctic will keep us from seeing a "blue ocean" this September. There is some good news in all of this blue sky and melting.

Mercator models the currents in the Arctic ocean. You can see the current spinning up along the Alaskan shelf margin at 30 m depth in this animation.
 http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20200401/20200713/3/2

If you look closely at Mercator's animation of the 300m salinity you can see increasing salinity along the Alaskan shelf edge over the past 6 weeks. Uniquorn has posted a number of animations over at the salinity thread or you can make your own animation at Mercator Ocean.
Thank you for this explanation FOW. So you don't think warm surface waters - from river- and meltwater that is heated up in the Pacific - will cause Arctic ice to melt directly? Is it all salty water that sinks down?
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harpy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2663 on: July 13, 2020, 09:30:28 PM »
The arctic sea ice is analogous to a beloved family member with terminal cancer, and a large family that all depends on this person for their livelihood and well being.

The terminal family member is definitely going to die, but for the time being, they seem to be in good spirits, and appear moderately healthy.   Despite the grim medical charts and test results.

None-the less we all sort of work together as a team to see this family member through to the end, knowing all well that there's nothing to be done to reverse the family member's fate.

When the terminally ill family member finally dies, our lives will never be the same, and we all dread that day which is coming much faster than we expected.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2664 on: July 13, 2020, 09:35:26 PM »
I don't really understand the last 2 days of 'slowdowns' in terms of melt. Granted they are really not all that 'slow,' (hence the use of quotes), but it is confusing for me. Maybe some of it is compaction, but I still feel like ice in the ESS is more or less doomed and is scattered from Wrangle Island on. I don't know how well the Beaufort will hold up, but so far it's been the only region which has had less melt.

Today's yet another day where like 2/3 of the entire pack can be seen without cloud cover, but at times the losses do not reflect what I would expect to see. Maybe there are more systematic changes underway which will be made more evident going into August or perhaps a storm will show how weak the ice is.
pls!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2665 on: July 13, 2020, 09:43:46 PM »
I somehow get a feeling that a lot of the ice will just go *poof* later this season.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2666 on: July 13, 2020, 09:48:29 PM »
I don't really understand the last 2 days of 'slowdowns' in terms of melt. Granted they are really not all that 'slow,' (hence the use of quotes), but it is confusing for me. Maybe some of it is compaction, but I still feel like ice in the ESS is more or less doomed and is scattered from Wrangle Island on. I don't know how well the Beaufort will hold up, but so far it's been the only region which has had less melt.

Today's yet another day where like 2/3 of the entire pack can be seen without cloud cover, but at times the losses do not reflect what I would expect to see. Maybe there are more systematic changes underway which will be made more evident going into August or perhaps a storm will show how weak the ice is.
Hi Pearscot, what is happening right now IMHO is that we have reached "peak compaction". And because of the retraction of the ice edges, the water that is left at the edges must be colder, as it was hidden beneath the ice, and thus didn't get as much sun as the water that wasn't covered by the ice. So now that water has to warm up and mix before it can continue melting the ice edges.

But that's just my humble opinion without anything to back it up...
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2667 on: July 13, 2020, 09:52:51 PM »
I somehow get a feeling that a lot of the ice will just go *poof* later this season.

That's more or less it. I've said at least twice in this thread so far that I was wondering if we will hit a 'flash point' or something similar where a lot of ice just goes at once. There are just too many unknowns at this point for me to guess.

I mean clearly something is happening...the ice just doesn't drift 12+ miles off the coast of Northern Greenland/Queen Elizabeth Islands for zero reason, so what is driving it?

If I had to guess, I'd sat that as the pack slowly rotates, the periphery get melted and in doing so, the pack slowly compresses while becoming smaller. I have no idea, but I certainly think that August will be dramatic.
pls!

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2668 on: July 13, 2020, 10:00:32 PM »
I don't really understand the last 2 days of 'slowdowns' in terms of melt. Granted they are really not all that 'slow,' (hence the use of quotes), but it is confusing for me. Maybe some of it is compaction, but I still feel like ice in the ESS is more or less doomed and is scattered from Wrangle Island on. I don't know how well the Beaufort will hold up, but so far it's been the only region which has had less melt.

Today's yet another day where like 2/3 of the entire pack can be seen without cloud cover, but at times the losses do not reflect what I would expect to see. Maybe there are more systematic changes underway which will be made more evident going into August or perhaps a storm will show how weak the ice is.
Hi Pearscot, what is happening right now IMHO is that we have reached "peak compaction". And because of the retraction of the ice edges, the water that is left at the edges must be colder, as it was hidden beneath the ice, and thus didn't get as much sun as the water that wasn't covered by the ice. So now that water has to warm up and mix before it can continue melting the ice edges.

But that's just my humble opinion without anything to back it up...

That's certainly possible. I guess until I looked more closely I didn't realize just how much compaction has occurred somewhat recently. My original assumption was that the high pressure would push more ice to the edges, but the more I think about it that's what a strong low would do.

I will say a vast majority of the ice is compact, but the regions that are not will (by my estimates) melt out by August. To my eye everything inside the red outline is most compact, barring a significant storm

pls!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2669 on: July 13, 2020, 10:10:26 PM »
There's plenty more drama to come in July !
  The Laptev has taken a first good bite out of the CAS : in the last 24hrs the ice edge has retreated a further 20km and moved 30 km . The 2 floes in the 'bay' @135 E 81 N can be seen travel 60km in 2 days , this is impressive and not assisting their longevity . A prize for anyone who spots faster moving ice :) 
  Hi sailor .. I guess 'the forecast ' is the EURO ? . The trouble with the last 3 weeks is that the worst forecast for the ice becomes reality while all else fades or becomes a co-facilitator of harm . All promise of cooling uppers has vanished for now too . (just read your update .. it makes this relevant ) ..
 
https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2020062012/gfsnh-15-252.png?12 .. I started watching this Siberian heat being promised .. and it came 10 days later and left it's mark on the ice ,
https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2020070112/gfsnh-15-6.png?12
and apparently all time record temps at the pole .. yet to be confirmed I think .
 The GAAC has held sway ever since and still does for days to come . Another surge of Siberian heat is not what the Arctic needs but is very probably what it will get .
  What the Arctic needs for the month of August is NO weather ! Climate is enough .
 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2670 on: July 13, 2020, 10:14:47 PM »
I don't really understand the last 2 days of 'slowdowns' in terms of melt. Granted they are really not all that 'slow,' (hence the use of quotes), but it is confusing for me. Maybe some of it is compaction, but I still feel like ice in the ESS is more or less doomed and is scattered from Wrangle Island on. I don't know how well the Beaufort will hold up, but so far it's been the only region which has had less melt.

Today's yet another day where like 2/3 of the entire pack can be seen without cloud cover, but at times the losses do not reflect what I would expect to see. Maybe there are more systematic changes underway which will be made more evident going into August or perhaps a storm will show how weak the ice is.

A big part of the remaining ice is is between 50cm and 1.50m thick and that part of the ice self-evidently takes a bit longer to melt.

If you look at the curves of the charts carefully, the gap to most of the next lowest years did not decrease but increased or was more or less stable, hence we're still dropping fastly.

Last but not least the reminder of the bigger part of the ice is >80° North and sunny or not, the strength of the sun around the pole is definitely starting to weaken around this time of the season.

Attached you find data for ice thickness development over the last few weeks, last day measured with thickness indicated.

If that rate continues we shall witness a very widely spread in-situ melt out of almost everything below 1m thickness at present.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2020, 10:25:12 PM by igs »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2671 on: July 13, 2020, 10:45:59 PM »
ercator models the currents in the Arctic ocean. You can see the current spinning up along the Alaskan shelf margin at 30 m depth in this animation.
 http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20200401/20200713/3/2

If you look closely at Mercator's animation of the 300m salinity you can see increasing salinity along the Alaskan shelf edge over the past 6 weeks. Uniquorn has posted a number of animations over at the salinity thread or you can make your own animation at Mercator Ocean.
That's an awesome tool FOW. Thanks for that! I finally get it now. Those salinity animation at different depths are telling the story. Thank you!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2672 on: July 13, 2020, 11:20:07 PM »
The more the high pressure center drifts towards the ESS, bakes the already-fragile ice there with clear skies, and pulls balmy air off Siberia and over the warming Laptev towards the weak flank of the CAB, the worse it is going to be for the ice.  What are SSTs going to be in the Laptev by mid-August at this rate? 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2673 on: July 13, 2020, 11:42:36 PM »
For those wondering about a slowdown, it's the old 2D vs 3D problem. To shrink fast in 2D one must have lots of very thin ice at any given day that can complete its meltout. But what happens when most of the ice has a typical thickness of FYI at about 1.5m-2m, maybe 1m-1.5m by now? The sun and heat melt the ice in 3D, while 2D shows no ice disappearing, thus an apparent slowdown. This is especially true when the sun is shining on the thicker middle of the pack, while clouds hide the more southern and thinner parts. But the damage is accumulated in 3D, and if the season is long and/or warm enough, will translate to 2D with a vengeance.
Of course the other factor is extent vs area, compaction will show huge extent drops, but is not necessarily melt, it could be just movement.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2674 on: July 13, 2020, 11:44:44 PM »

I will say a vast majority of the ice is compact, but the regions that are not will (by my estimates) melt out by August. To my eye everything inside the red outline is most compact, barring a significant storm

Mostly quite compact, and the question is how thick is it?  And how fast is it losing ice?  Last year I noted compactness of much of a similar area around this time to be a big reason to not expect a record year.  This year we have much stronger surface melt conditions,and a significant although not yet huge lead in extent over all other years.  I also note that a lot of this compact ice is starting to get small holes in it.  My interpretation is transition from a mostly solid sheet to lots of jammed together floes with some gaps where they don't quite fit right.  I will be watching closely to see how much these holes grow and spread.

Location

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2676 on: July 14, 2020, 12:55:04 AM »
Not passed mid July and the Laptev bite has reached 80N already

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2677 on: July 14, 2020, 01:31:52 AM »

Mostly quite compact, and the question is how thick is it?  And how fast is it losing ice?  Last year I noted compactness of much of a similar area around this time to be a big reason to not expect a record year.  This year we have much stronger surface melt conditions,and a significant although not yet huge lead in extent over all other years.  I also note that a lot of this compact ice is starting to get small holes in it.  My interpretation is transition from a mostly solid sheet to lots of jammed together floes with some gaps where they don't quite fit right.  I will be watching closely to see how much these holes grow and spread.

Location

Same location June 23 attached pic.  Granted some ice drift in that time gap, but interesting to me how the ice with visible floes becomes the honeycomb pattern when top melt kicks in. I think this section of ice now likely looks a lot like that Polarstern helicopter photo that Oren posted earlier in this thread.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2678 on: July 14, 2020, 01:55:51 AM »
Beaufort, July 12.  One satellite track had relatively light cloud, so I pushed and pulled the contrast in Photoshop... quite a lot, but I think this still represents reality fairly well.

All those who are arguing the Beaufort is in worse shape than many think it is might be interested to look at how fragmented the ice is in this image.  I was one of the doubters, but I am on the way to conversion...
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2679 on: July 14, 2020, 02:14:58 AM »

Same location June 23 attached pic.  Granted some ice drift in that time gap, but interesting to me how the ice with visible floes becomes the honeycomb pattern when top melt kicks in. I think this section of ice now likely looks a lot like that Polarstern helicopter photo that Oren posted earlier in this thread.

So the ice sheet had definitely broken up somewhat several weeks ago.  But the current view looks much more uniform and solid.  And much more liquid on the surface.  Is it because the floes are now mostly too small to be seen individually?  Has the recent high pressure driven compaction pushed it all back together into one sheet?  Are the faint white lines currently visible that look a bit like reverse cracks pressure ridges or something else?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2680 on: July 14, 2020, 02:24:37 AM »

I will say a vast majority of the ice is compact, but the regions that are not will (by my estimates) melt out by August. To my eye everything inside the red outline is most compact, barring a significant storm

Mostly quite compact, and the question is how thick is it?  And how fast is it losing ice?  Last year I noted compactness of much of a similar area around this time to be a big reason to not expect a record year.  This year we have much stronger surface melt conditions,and a significant although not yet huge lead in extent over all other years.  I also note that a lot of this compact ice is starting to get small holes in it.  My interpretation is transition from a mostly solid sheet to lots of jammed together floes with some gaps where they don't quite fit right.  I will be watching closely to see how much these holes grow and spread.

Location

Yep that was also my argument of not having record lows last year but ice extent still dropped to 2nd lowest despite that. I suspect warm SSTS was mostly to blame and the pre conditioning of the ESS ice.

I'm with you that Im not fully convinced this years ice pack is as compact as last years despite the high pressure and again, warm SSTS could play a part, especially in the Laptev region. However because the ice pack is more compact than it was in 2012, I don't think we will hit record lows but because of the lack of Siberian ice it means we are not likely to see arms of ice stretching towards the ESS and Laptev, and extent under 4 million looks very likely.

I will await with interest if the more compact ice pack means a slow down come the 2nd half of August or whether SSTS will again rule the roost and retreat the ice regardless.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2681 on: July 14, 2020, 02:25:26 AM »

So the ice sheet had definitely broken up somewhat several weeks ago.  But the current view looks much more uniform and solid.  And much more liquid on the surface.  Is it because the floes are now mostly too small to be seen individually?  Has the recent high pressure driven compaction pushed it all back together into one sheet?  Are the faint white lines currently visible that look a bit like reverse cracks pressure ridges or something else?

I have no answers only more questions! And more pics.  Look at this spot: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-804286.5994982878,274771.1967389671,-454590.599498288,478760.53007230035&p=arctic&t=2020-07-13-T23%3A42%3A44Z

The honeycomb pattern replaced the floe-y pattern in only 8 days' time.
First pic is July 1 of this year.
Second pic is July 9 this year
Third pic is August 13 (!) of 2019

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2682 on: July 14, 2020, 02:38:04 AM »
Here is Hycom thickness

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2683 on: July 14, 2020, 02:41:16 AM »
GFS has static ice concentration which means it is useless. ECMWF vs GFS D10 forecast. lol. I did not realize GFS used static ice boundaries / data for the full forecast (ECMWF is dynamic).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2684 on: July 14, 2020, 02:56:27 AM »
I somehow get a feeling that a lot of the ice will just go *poof* later this season.

This is exactly what it's going to happen.  The ice has been obliterated.

Even when we have recently heard had dense fog where low level warm air was affected over the near surface boundary layer that fog was not ice protecting. 

But even so the sun has been constantly shining on roughly 50 percent of the basin at any given time.

So yeah we may not see huge holes open up because of compaction.

Look at today huge clearing over the basin.

The euro from hour 48 to 240 is still straight blow torching. 

Just amazing.

CLICK TO ANIMATE THE  EURO FORECAST.

LOOK AT HOW LONG AND PERSISTENT THOSE 5C+ 850MB TEMPS ARE??? 

GOODNESS
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 03:04:40 AM by Frivolousz21 »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2685 on: July 14, 2020, 03:31:47 AM »
This is where I think the minimum will be.

The thinner white line it's my operational prediction.

The hazy white is where I see potentially low concentration  ice left.

I feel very confident about this.   And that's crazy.   
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bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2686 on: July 14, 2020, 03:39:19 AM »
This is where I think the minimum will be.

The thinner white line it's my operational prediction.

The hazy white is where I see potentially low concentration  ice left.

I feel very confident about this.   And that's crazy.
Agreed

With caveat that there is some chance we see MYI rubble in Beaufort and FYI in Foxe Basin survive as well (40% former 20% latter imo).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2687 on: July 14, 2020, 03:53:16 AM »
I have no hope for the ice in the Beaufort and the Laptev bite is already at 80N. The weather is so bad for ice that 2020 could beat 2012 without a GAC in August or September. You are right, Friv that the ECMWF forecast is brutal for the ice.

if you click this link https://clima.caltech.edu/files/2018/11/Timmermans.pdf
you will see 20 pages of images by Prof Timmermans which describe the current patterns and the build up of heat in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Sustained easterly winds cause upwelling that brings up some of the stored heat. The Beaufort is a death zone for late summer ice now.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2688 on: July 14, 2020, 04:11:34 AM »
<snippage>
Today's yet another day where like 2/3 of the entire pack can be seen without cloud cover, but at times the losses do not reflect what I would expect to see. Maybe there are more systematic changes underway which will be made more evident going into August or perhaps a storm will show how weak the ice is.

A big part of the remaining ice is is between 50cm and 1.50m thick and that part of the ice self-evidently takes a bit longer to melt.
<snippage>
If that rate continues we shall witness a very widely spread in-situ melt out of almost everything below 1m thickness at present.
It's those numbers I'm afraid of  50-150cm.

I think some of the variability in numbers has been draining melt ponds, due to ice melting through, or ice  becoming too structurally weak and breaking up.

The sun and high pressure continue to be merciless.  Conservatively that's taking off 3-5cm a day, most likely 5cm or higher.  If this is true, we should see lots of gaps starting to open in the central pack in a few days.  Of course, this could in turn be compressed by the coming wind and ice movement, but should be reflected in rapidly decreasing numbers.

At some point - in about 15 days, we should start to see a lot of that mid-range ice begin to fail.  This should start to reveal relict MYI - the larger floes - that have been embedded in the pack for years.  I'm somewhat anticipating it will start to take on the look and feel of 2013 or 2014, but with far more heat loose in the system and no prospect for things to slow down.  Then we have what looks like could be a classic, powerful dipole form shoving ice out the Atlantic side, and "superheated" ESS and Laptev water into the central basin.

After this of course would also be the worst possible time for the gradient to flip and for us to see a large cyclone form.  It would be in keeping with our current luck for that to happen.

The Northern passage is now open.    Not sure if this is a record, but probably close.  The current high pressure regime shows no sign of abating.  I'm reasonably sure the NW passage will be open sometime in August, probably earlier than later if this heat continues, which turns it into another killing ground for the ice.  Unfettered insolation potentially through the end of the month, which besides melt is stacking up the heat budget for bottom melt in mid-late August.

Suffice to say I'm very pessimistic. 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2689 on: July 14, 2020, 05:51:15 AM »
So little 4 year or older Ice is left that multiyear ice really only means 2 or 3 years old now. :'(  If you find the graph hard to read the white bar on the left is the amount of 4 year old ice. The purple line is the average amount of 4 year or older ice in this week. I am not sure which week in September this is.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2690 on: July 14, 2020, 06:02:26 AM »
Is there anything in play that indicates a shift in winds that would halt this constant flow of ASI directly into the lion's mouth of Fram Strait? I mean, if this keeps up like it did in 2012, we're likely in big trouble, no?

So, anything in the dynamics looking to act as a hysteresis on the winds/ice direction? Anything at all?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2691 on: July 14, 2020, 06:06:26 AM »
This is where I think the minimum will be.

The thinner white line it's my operational prediction.

The hazy white is where I see potentially low concentration  ice left.

I feel very confident about this.   And that's crazy.

That line does not seem to correlate well with the ice concentration. So what are the specifics behind the line?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2692 on: July 14, 2020, 06:25:47 AM »
It may be the ghost of the Laxton Sea for 2020 is arising like Phoenix from the ashes of many alarmist earlier predictions like myself. I always appreciated late Seymour Laxton of the University Collge London as one of the great early birds warning of the early demise of the Arctic Sea Ice. Catherine Gilles was another great of theirs. Sadly we miss both of them to see their predictions if not realised, at least close. In future our worries will comprise of collapsing methane hydrates and exhaustively melting North Greenland Ice Sheet turning into honeycombed water clogged unstable porridge. :'(
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 06:30:51 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2693 on: July 14, 2020, 06:30:00 AM »
So is the consensus that the sea ice will end up like 2012 but with the edges severely trimmed? A record low with a lot of ice free ocean but no Blue Ocean Event?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2694 on: July 14, 2020, 06:34:46 AM »
Lesson from the past:  2011.

High pressure dominated early 2011 and by the 18th of July Jaxa ice extent was 377k sq km ahead of July 18th 2007, which was the record at the time.  Current conditions as at 13th July are now 420k ahead of the previous record year of 2012.  However in 2011 conditions changed dramatically and by the 22nd of July 2011 a low pressure system had taken over.  The lead by then had been cut to 206k and dropped further to be 101k behind 2007 by Aug 1, as low pressure conditions continued to dominate.  In the end 2011 narrowly failed to beat 2007 in Jaxa extent, but did roughly equal 2007 in area with one agency putting 2011 first for area and others second if I recall correctly.

Current forecasts suggest another week of high pressure domination and then a switch to low pressure which would make for a switch at roughly the same time as 2011.  However forecasts at this lead are not reliable, and I think forecasts have suggested a switch early in the second forecast week for a while now and have been delaying this switch.  On the other hand 2007 made its big surge in early July, so 2011 being ahead in later July was certainly an ominous sign.  In contrast 2012 made its big surge in early August.  If conditions do switch to low pressure dominated cloudy conditions in a week or two I'd suggest beating 2012 would become unlikely, and that strong melt conditions need to extend into maybe mid August.  On the other hand I'd say it would need nearly a miracle for melt this year to not beat 2nd position comfortably.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2695 on: July 14, 2020, 06:37:14 AM »
I can't see totality, would require multiple huge storms at the end of season to demolish thickest ice. If blue ocean is 1 million sq km or other artificial threshold (which no one in the public understand), perhaps yes. But certainly no totality, there are still enough of legacy ice.
So is the consensus that the sea ice will end up like 2012 but with the edges severely trimmed? A record low with a lot of ice free ocean but no Blue Ocean Event?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2696 on: July 14, 2020, 06:38:40 AM »
So is the consensus that the sea ice will end up like 2012 but with the edges severely trimmed? A record low with a lot of ice free ocean but no Blue Ocean Event?
Normaly, the consensus is not to have a consensus...  ;)
But maybe we can agree [on a forecast] after August 15th...

As Shakespeare might say: Have a GAC or not have a GAC!
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 06:50:58 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2697 on: July 14, 2020, 07:08:46 AM »
July 13th, 2020

7,303,539 km2

A loss of -144,613 km2

The lowest on record for the date, per JAXA.
Thank you, Jacobus.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 13th, 2020:
     7,303,539 km2, a drop of -144,613 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

1.  The numbers above are simply astonishing.  This is with no dipole.  I REPEAT NO DIPOLE ANOMALY.

This brought about almost contentious debate.  One side argued that the modeled volume was to high for the king of loses we have seen transpire.

Another argument from a completely different person and perspective was that only a dipole anomaly could inflict this kind of damage.

While the dipole is the pinnacle of screwing the sea ice.  It isn't the only way to achieve the goal. 

Having these kinds of loses with so much ice in the Chuchcki and Beaufort still is remarkable.

And the ESS is about to melt out. 

Just wowsers!
 
Big area in the ESS about to go poof
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2698 on: July 14, 2020, 07:25:02 AM »
Between the 12/13th the ice edge from the laptev around the Atlantic edge compacted a lot.  Like 20-30 miles.

Not just compaction.  You can see two big flows just start vanishing.

Click to animate
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2699 on: July 14, 2020, 07:47:26 AM »
This is where I think the minimum will be.

Ya. Feels right. Seems Legit. Could be a bit better. Could be a lot worse.
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