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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2700 on: July 14, 2020, 07:53:12 AM »
I can't see totality.

I think it is truly impossible.

I think Mikey H is spot on. Good likelihood this year is setting up next year (or the year after) for "the spectacle" of BOE.
big time oops

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2701 on: July 14, 2020, 08:02:09 AM »
I have no hope for the ice in the Beaufort and the Laptev bite is already at 80N. The weather is so bad for ice that 2020 could beat 2012 without a GAC in August or September. You are right, Friv that the ECMWF forecast is brutal for the ice.

if you click this link https://clima.caltech.edu/files/2018/11/Timmermans.pdf
you will see 20 pages of images by Prof Timmermans which describe the current patterns and the build up of heat in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Sustained easterly winds cause upwelling that brings up some of the stored heat. The Beaufort is a death zone for late summer ice now.
Quote
Late summer SSTs should be
~ 5°C warmer in recent years
compared to three decades ago.
Cumulative heat input can
account for observed SST
increase.
That's a lot of extra heat.  :'(
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2702 on: July 14, 2020, 08:28:20 AM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1282866573108101121

Quote
The extreme event near Siberia continues to unfold - summer 2020 is already a memorable year in the #Arctic...


jens

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2703 on: July 14, 2020, 08:53:17 AM »
Just as a fun fact. Current extent 7,3M km2 is roughly where 1980's ended up at their minimum. That is with roughly two months of the melting season left. So this is the advantage that has been gained in the mean-time.

On a more general note. July is clearly the month in which things start happening and contenders get separated from pretenders. By the end of June top8 years were still roughly within 250k, but from July onwards differences have really been opening up. For example 2018 (just two years ago) is a whole 1M currently behind 2020.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 09:19:01 AM by jens »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2704 on: July 14, 2020, 08:53:39 AM »
Black ice north of the New Siberia islands. The long-lived anticyclone overheats the ice with sunlight.

johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2705 on: July 14, 2020, 10:05:57 AM »
Hycomsss seems to show atl waters flowing through to Baffin, Nullschool shows it emerging at 5-6c, with a flow established and nothing i can see to stop it the CAA will clear. We have 5 tidal peaks between now and the end of the season any one of those could clear the channels and begin to allow Beaufort surface waters to escape, to be replaced by increased inflows from both the Atl. and Pac.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2706 on: July 14, 2020, 10:50:29 AM »
<snip>
Mercator models the currents in the Arctic ocean. You can see the current spinning up along the Alaskan shelf margin at 30 m depth in this animation.
 http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20200401/20200713/3/2
<snip>
I love that website FOW. It is really helping me to understand the arctic better. What's the accuracy of this ice thickness map? I love the way you can zoom in on the CAA and have all the relevant data at hand. Is the data any good?

Edit: What does FishOutofWater mean? Is it like "I'm running out of breath"? A fish out of breath because of the strain on the environment? Or are you talking about evolution that you're basically a fish that learned how to walk and breathe on land?

Or are you just a fish out of the water that's suffering an agonising death because people took away the only environment you are able to survive in?

I think people  like you deserve a bio on this forum. To me you're all just monikers on a forum, but when I read what you've done in your life a few days ago, I learned to be more humble...

Please add bio pages for people like this Neven!
Now we newbies just don't know who is who...

« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 02:41:17 PM by Freegrass »
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2707 on: July 14, 2020, 12:56:00 PM »
July 13th, 2020

7,303,539 km2

A loss of -144,613 km2

The lowest on record for the date, per JAXA.
Thank you, Jacobus.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 13th, 2020:
     7,303,539 km2, a drop of -144,613 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

1.  The numbers above are simply astonishing.  This is with no dipole.  I REPEAT NO DIPOLE ANOMALY.

This brought about almost contentious debate.  One side argued that the modeled volume was to high for the king of loses we have seen transpire.

One could argue however the losses we have seen was in places where the volume models indicated the ice was thinner than average. I continually mentioned before the melt season started the ESS was the area to watch because of the lack of fast ice due to the positive AO and the ice in general there looked quite thin and that evidence just grew as we went into the melt season. The Laptev is a bit more surprising though with the way the Laptev bite formed and then retreated northwards but no doubt weather has played a role with the Siberian heat in June and the strong southerly winds since.

Ironically I think if we had more true dipole conditions, extent may of been a bit higher as there would be more ice you would of thought in the Laptev and ESS and the Beaufort would have less extent than now but because it is thicker, it would be more resilient to heat. However the collapse in the 2nd half of the melt season would be quite big because large parts of the ESS and Laptev would melt out aswell as the Beaufort. We saw that somewhat in 2018 but the opposite way round, Beaufort ice was thin but was kept cool whilst the Siberian side of the basin had thicker compact ice but in the 2nd half of the melt season, the Pacific side of the basin did drop quite a large amount as firstly we saw the Beaufort collapsing by the end of July and the Siberian side trying to hold on but in the end, very little ice survived. Not helped by a huge area of high pressure in September either!

So will be interesting too see if the ice can remain compact during the rest of this melt season and whether that means we may see a slow down if or when things turn cooler especially during August or whether the damage has already been done and SSTS are too high and will keep on nibbling away at the ice edges.

NotaDenier

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2708 on: July 14, 2020, 01:01:24 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2975.0;attach=275040;image

What is the standard deviation of the last 10 years? Are we outside of this range?

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2709 on: July 14, 2020, 01:23:04 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2975.0;attach=275040;image

What is the standard deviation of the last 10 years? Are we outside of this range?

The standard deviation of the 2010's is 162,641 square kilometres assuming I haven't screwed up my calculations. This puts 2020 3.8 standard deviations out from the 2010's average.
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kaixo

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2710 on: July 14, 2020, 02:38:58 PM »
Somehow Andrew Slater's model isn't responding to the current melting conditions. It moved its predictions upwards over the last week and is still trailing at 4,72 mi. km per 2nd of september. Meanwhile the general impression here at the forum is that this season will end up with (well) below 4 mi and maybe even around 3 mi. sq. km.
Slaters model only has about two weeks left of revising its numbers downwards. While it has done remarkably well in predicting september minimum over the last years, this year it might be off by quiet some margin. It seems to imply that what's happening at the moment is rather unusual and not in incorporated in the model.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2711 on: July 14, 2020, 02:59:31 PM »
Somehow Andrew Slater's model isn't responding to the current melting conditions. It moved its predictions upwards over the last week and is still trailing at 4,72 mi. km per 2nd of september. Meanwhile the general impression here at the forum is that this season will end up with (well) below 4 mi and maybe even around 3 mi. sq. km.
Slaters model only has about two weeks left of revising its numbers downwards. While it has done remarkably well in predicting september minimum over the last years, this year it might be off by quiet some margin. It seems to imply that what's happening at the moment is rather unusual and not in incorporated in the model.

Maybe the Slater model, and some other models, did not anticipate the massive heat punch that has been delivered this year from central Siberia, which has been expressed most dramatically in the virtual destruction of the Laptev sea ice.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006 
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 03:26:37 PM by Pagophilus »
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2712 on: July 14, 2020, 03:13:26 PM »
The Laptev Sea tests borders of the graph again. ::)

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2713 on: July 14, 2020, 03:25:03 PM »
Just as a fun fact. Current extent 7,3M km2 is roughly where 1980's ended up at their minimum. That is with roughly two months of the melting season left. So this is the advantage that has been gained in the mean-time.

On a more general note. July is clearly the month in which things start happening and contenders get separated from pretenders. By the end of June top8 years were still roughly within 250k, but from July onwards differences have really been opening up. For example 2018 (just two years ago) is a whole 1M currently behind 2020.

Looking at it from a "how far ahead is 2020?" perspective (particularly important since we are still in the peak effective insolation period and there is a very persistent high over the pole), then working from the NSIDC Charctix graph, 2020 is about:

32 days ahead of the 1979-1990 average
14 days ahead of the 2001-2010 average
5 days ahead of the 2011-2019 average

It is about 2 days ahead of 2019, and about 3 days ahead of 2012 (looks like more on the graph but that is what the numbers gave).  All a bit fuzzy at this scale because of leap years etc...
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2714 on: July 14, 2020, 03:45:24 PM »
Laptev with a 100km bite in 4 days. Yummy yummy.
big time oops

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2715 on: July 14, 2020, 03:52:45 PM »
Freegrass, it's all of the above and more. I was also a body surfer in Hawaii who moved back to the mainland, but enough about me.

Pag, That thermal anomaly in Siberia is off the charts. And also note that southerly winds blew from Siberia towards the pole keeping the ice very thin on the Siberian side of the pole. That weather pattern also sent excessive amounts of ice and Arctic ocean water below the ice out the Fram strait. That ice and water was replaced by inflow of Atlantic water into the Barents sea. A positive AO in winter directs water once in the Gulf stream towards the Barents sea.

For the past 6 months we have been watching one of the worst case scenarios for Arctic ice. And the subsidence high continues over the pole and the models predict continued advection of Siberian heat over the Arctic ocean.

We're entering uncharted waters.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2716 on: July 14, 2020, 04:25:02 PM »
Ice pack is separating from the north coast of Greenland in latest Worldview images.  Maybe about 500km long, around/up to 10km wide.

I could not find this crack on other Worldview images for this time of year, searching back to around 2012.  And no, I am not looking at the Nares or the crack N. of Ellesmere.

Is it something new?  Is it significant?  Is it a result of the continued action of the high above the pole, compacting the ice so continuously? 
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2717 on: July 14, 2020, 04:48:26 PM »
I have no hope for the ice in the Beaufort and the Laptev bite is already at 80N. The weather is so bad for ice that 2020 could beat 2012 without a GAC in August or September. You are right, Friv that the ECMWF forecast is brutal for the ice.

if you click this link https://clima.caltech.edu/files/2018/11/Timmermans.pdf
you will see 20 pages of images by Prof Timmermans which describe the current patterns and the build up of heat in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Sustained easterly winds cause upwelling that brings up some of the stored heat. The Beaufort is a death zone for late summer ice now.

And no 'recovery years' in 2021 and 2022. The GAC vented a lot of oceanic warmth.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2718 on: July 14, 2020, 05:11:41 PM »
That pull away from the NW coast of Greenland could not have happened until recent years at any date because there was very thick fast ice there. We watched the fast ice break up in recent summers. The loss of fast ice may increase the salinity of the water there and increase the chances of upwelling of relatively warm salty water along that coast. Mercator ocean maps showed that warm salty water upwelled there in the past year or two when winds drove the ice offshore.

There's a prof who has a blog (is it icy seas?) who has written about the flow patterns on both sides of the Nares strait. The absence of fast ice on the NW Greenland coast makes it possible for warm salty water to move up the east side of the strait then up the shelf break of NW Greenland.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2719 on: July 14, 2020, 05:19:31 PM »
<snippage>
Today's yet another day where like 2/3 of the entire pack can be seen without cloud cover, but at times the losses do not reflect what I would expect to see. Maybe there are more systematic changes underway which will be made more evident going into August or perhaps a storm will show how weak the ice is.

A big part of the remaining ice is is between 50cm and 1.50m thick and that part of the ice self-evidently takes a bit longer to melt.
<snippage>
If that rate continues we shall witness a very widely spread in-situ melt out of almost everything below 1m thickness at present.
It's those numbers I'm afraid of  50-150cm.

I think some of the variability in numbers has been draining melt ponds, due to ice melting through, or ice  becoming too structurally weak and breaking up.

The sun and high pressure continue to be merciless.  Conservatively that's taking off 3-5cm a day, most likely 5cm or higher.  If this is true, we should see lots of gaps starting to open in the central pack in a few days.  Of course, this could in turn be compressed by the coming wind and ice movement, but should be reflected in rapidly decreasing numbers.

At some point - in about 15 days, we should start to see a lot of that mid-range ice begin to fail.  This should start to reveal relict MYI - the larger floes - that have been embedded in the pack for years.  I'm somewhat anticipating it will start to take on the look and feel of 2013 or 2014, but with far more heat loose in the system and no prospect for things to slow down.  Then we have what looks like could be a classic, powerful dipole form shoving ice out the Atlantic side, and "superheated" ESS and Laptev water into the central basin.

After this of course would also be the worst possible time for the gradient to flip and for us to see a large cyclone form.  It would be in keeping with our current luck for that to happen.

The Northern passage is now open.    Not sure if this is a record, but probably close.  The current high pressure regime shows no sign of abating.  I'm reasonably sure the NW passage will be open sometime in August, probably earlier than later if this heat continues, which turns it into another killing ground for the ice.  Unfettered insolation potentially through the end of the month, which besides melt is stacking up the heat budget for bottom melt in mid-late August.

Suffice to say I'm very pessimistic.

Well said and thanks for writing all of that out. I agree with that analysis - it's just strange to just kinda sit and wait in anticipation because it's just one of those things where I KNOW the damage is being done as there is a substantial amount of energy being injected into the system, yet there will be a slight delay.

I just rolled into work and did my usual checks, and I'm going to sound like a broken record, but 2/3 of the pack is once again clear. It's just so wild to see! I can't prove it and don't really aim to, but I think the mega crack is an artifact of how the everything is just not as it once was (for lack of a better term).

I'll post more pics up today, but there sure are some developments unfolding, especially in the Queen Elizabeth Islands. Not to mention, I think the fresh water injection from Northern Greenland will be cited later.
pls!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2720 on: July 14, 2020, 05:25:58 PM »
There's a prof who has a blog (is it icy seas?) who has written about the flow patterns on both sides of the Nares strait.

Andreas Muenchow, a fellow ASIF member. :)

Here is the blog >> https://icyseas.org

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2721 on: July 14, 2020, 05:50:36 PM »
Ice pack is separating from the north coast of Greenland in latest Worldview images.  Maybe about 500km long, around/up to 10km wide.

I could not find this crack on other Worldview images for this time of year, searching back to around 2012.  And no, I am not looking at the Nares or the crack N. of Ellesmere.

Is it something new?  Is it significant?  Is it a result of the continued action of the high above the pole, compacting the ice so continuously?

Please review this thread and feel free to add all you would like there:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2839.0.html

As far as I know, 2019 was the first year I have ever seen that develop and I was truly astonished. It's shocking to me to see this become a new feature of the modern era for the ice.

I've said it before but it's worth repeating: I thought last year this was potentially a 'one-off' event, but now after watching it reform and come back with vengeance, I think this really speaks to the substantial changes unfolding in the entire basin. Today is fucking wild, look at how far it has completely separated from northern Greenland, if you look close, you will see where the land (rock) fast ice is breaking down too. It's been sustained at like 45-60f there for quite a while and if the melt ponds are not a sign, this sure is!

pls!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2722 on: July 14, 2020, 06:05:39 PM »
Pag, That thermal anomaly in Siberia is off the charts. And also note that southerly winds blew from Siberia towards the pole keeping the ice very thin on the Siberian side of the pole. That weather pattern also sent excessive amounts of ice and Arctic ocean water below the ice out the Fram strait. That ice and water was replaced by inflow of Atlantic water into the Barents sea. A positive AO in winter directs water once in the Gulf stream towards the Barents sea.
<>
Ascat for the 2019-2020 freeze/melt season to illustrate FooW's post
Compressed to 5MB.

Neven

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2723 on: July 14, 2020, 06:20:20 PM »
We're entering uncharted waters.

Uncharted and free of ice...
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2724 on: July 14, 2020, 06:58:02 PM »
Ice pack is separating from the north coast of Greenland in latest Worldview images.  Maybe about 500km long, around/up to 10km wide....

Please review this thread and feel free to add all you would like there:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2839.0.html

As far as I know, 2019 was the first year I have ever seen that develop and I was truly astonished. It's shocking to me to see this become a new feature of the modern era for the ice.

Thanks, pearscot.  I took your advice and added on that thread...  I know you have been all over this for some time.  Is one fear that the ice pack could just detach and spin out towards the toasty Siberian side?

FOoW and uniquorn, thank you for your replies.  I am beginning to understand more.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 07:06:33 PM by Pagophilus »
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2725 on: July 14, 2020, 07:16:42 PM »
Closeup of that crack opening up on the N Greenland coast.
No overt signs of melting (like melting streamers) that I can see, but the ice is very fragmented and floes are separating.  Meltponding detection I leave to the experts. As pearscot says, the very existence of the crack is cause for concern.

First images is normal Worldview, second is that image with contrast cranked way up in Photoshop.
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johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2726 on: July 14, 2020, 07:20:09 PM »
I suspect the crack on Greenlands coast is caused by internal waves generated by the last tidal cycle forcing the flow down St. Anna. Some of the waves headed west and arrived first, others headed east towards Laptev and reflected back these should peak in the next couple of days then destroy each other in turbulence as they move towards Banks and along the Barents shelf. Some of the waves went straight ahead and caused the turbulence that raised the temps by the pole, their reflection then harmonised with the reflected waves from Laptev. I think.
Then there's the next acceleration of flow down St. Anna more or less coincident.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2727 on: July 14, 2020, 07:39:55 PM »
5 days out. How likely is it that such a weather condition holds for so long?

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2728 on: July 14, 2020, 07:49:12 PM »
LOL and a high over Greenland just to add the spice of life!

I mean I consider 5 days about the current end point for forecasts to be somewhat reliable. That said, given what I've seen and that the high has actually strengthened from yesterday I think it's fairly reasonable to give some credibility to it.

EDIT: let me also add this...note from what you posted how warm it is somewhat far off the Alaskan/British Columbia coast with the high also placed there?? I think the static nature of the high(s) in that region will hold it in place more than normal. The sea surface anomalies align so well with that forecast.

pls!

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2729 on: July 14, 2020, 08:10:09 PM »
Pearscot - that global SSTA pattern you show has been prevalent, for the most part, for quite some time. Perhaps it relates in a broader sense to blumenkraft's question about how long can the GAAC atmospheric pattern last. FOOW mentioned the research linking the Indian ocean anomaly, which if I recall was related to the Siberian high that eventually "migrated" over the pole.

These SSTA patterns help setup and lock-in atmospheric wave patterns. They are also self-reinforcing. Like in the case of the north eastern pacific blob where the ocean heat reinforces the wave pattern which in turn increases the ocean heat. Another positive feedback loop that can negatively work against us.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 09:33:47 PM by Ice Shieldz »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2730 on: July 14, 2020, 08:10:45 PM »
Ascat for the 2019-2020 freeze/melt season to illustrate FooW's post
Compressed to 5MB.
Notice how the pack swung counterclockwise before the melting season started. This opened up weaknesses on the atlantic side.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2731 on: July 14, 2020, 08:19:49 PM »
We're entering uncharted waters.

Uncharted and free of ice...

Please stay ON TOPIC. This is a serious thread.   :D ;) :D
big time oops

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2732 on: July 14, 2020, 08:22:12 PM »
I suspect the crack on Greenlands coast is caused by internal waves generated by the last tidal cycle forcing the flow down St. Anna. Some of the waves headed west and arrived first, others headed east towards Laptev and reflected back these should peak in the next couple of days then destroy each other in turbulence as they move towards Banks and along the Barents shelf. Some of the waves went straight ahead and caused the turbulence that raised the temps by the pole, their reflection then harmonised with the reflected waves from Laptev. I think.
Then there's the next acceleration of flow down St. Anna more or less coincident.
No, it's much easier than that. I predicted this would happen because the pack is contracting and wind is blowing hard along the CAAAGC (Canadian Arctic Archipelago And Greenland Coast), helping the GAAC move the ice towards Siberia, leaving a crack.

Don't we have more O's or U's or I's to play with in the Erctic?  :-\ ;D
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JamesW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2733 on: July 14, 2020, 08:28:00 PM »
After asking kindly for the compaction/dispersion charts several days ago which gerontocrat kindly put up for us all. I never dreamt the anomolous high would stay in place for so long and stay so central in the arctic basin!

Here we are over a week later and it appears to be strengthening once again over the next few days and staying in place.

More again? Can it be? It has tore in to the ice as 'expected' prior to the high and compaction is playing a huge part as we all can see! Laptev bite crossing 80 degrees, Atlantic front marching to the pole. Its like watching 'water pour down a plug hole with its clockwise motion draining everything slowly away'.

If you could kindly put up the compaction/dispersion graphs again gerontocrat I would be exceedingly grateful to you. I think it would be handy to see them now again after seeing the drops in area and extent and to see its totality.

As Neven always commented 'Its all about momentum'. This year apart from a couple of small breaks we can safely say its been momentum, momentum, momentum!!


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2734 on: July 14, 2020, 08:28:12 PM »
One sea with increasing sea ice:
CAA        + 15 %


Nice percentage ice area loss analysis by Stephan on the area and extent thread.  This one stood out, probably illustrating the degree of meltpond draining that took place there. 
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2735 on: July 14, 2020, 08:28:34 PM »
5 days out. How likely is it that such a weather condition holds for so long?

Does anyone know how often there are such long-lived anticyclones over the Arctic in July? Were these in past years?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2736 on: July 14, 2020, 08:42:37 PM »
Clear conditions over a part of the central ice pack today, and this stood out for me.  Despite the compaction over the past few days, there is a zone, about 250km wide from the edge of the ice pack on the Atlantic side towards the poles, where many gaps are visible between floes. Most of the ice in upper right part of this image has this characteristic. There is also a broad band of faint blue running vertically in the right-center part the image, more or less abutting the point where there are no more ice gaps.  One could speculate on meltponding, but that is above my pay grade. 

Worldview image has been heavily cranked for contrast.  Original image also provided. You have to click on the image and then magnify it, and focus particularly on the top right quadrant.  The boundary between holey ice and non-holey ice can be discerned.  FJL is just off-image to the right.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 08:53:20 PM by Pagophilus »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2737 on: July 14, 2020, 08:48:27 PM »
If you could kindly put up the compaction/dispersion graphs again gerontocrat I would be exceedingly grateful to you. I think it would be handy to see them now again after seeing the drops in area and extent and to see its totality.
Ok - attached...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2738 on: July 14, 2020, 08:56:11 PM »
5 days out. How likely is it that such a weather condition holds for so long?

Does anyone know how often there are such long-lived anticyclones over the Arctic in July? Were these in past years?

In the first half of July, areas of high pressure over the Arctic after 2006 prevailed in 2019, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008. We can hope that the weather this time saved the ice from the disasters of 2007 and 2012.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2739 on: July 14, 2020, 09:07:21 PM »
Thank you very much gerontocrat!

So we are currently trending at record extent lows and Number 3 NSIDC in area. Compaction has leaped as expected due to the anomolous high pressure. It is trending slightly over the 2000's average at this point with a new steady slow decline following the 2000's average trend line in the central artic basin.

The anomolus high has created something very interesting at this point compared to 2012 where compaction was on a steep decline at this part of the season in comparison.

I will hesitate to decipher at this point. I think we need to keep watching and learning....

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2740 on: July 14, 2020, 09:17:12 PM »
Well, I hope it stays compacted, for the ice's sake.

I was just scrolling around & zooming in w/ Worldview for the first time in a little while. Started getting kinda depressing so I'm just gonna go outside for a bit.

Thanks so much to all the great contributors here, BTW. You're priceless.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2741 on: July 14, 2020, 09:24:15 PM »
If the ice is more compacted, does that make it more difficult for melt ponds to drain?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2742 on: July 14, 2020, 10:30:51 PM »
If the ice is more compacted, does that make it more difficult for melt ponds to drain?

I would imagine that it does... fewer cracks in the ice for the meltpond water to enter.  This would explain why that lovely, intense meltpond-blue is more often seen on fast ice, since fast ice is more continuous in its nature than the messy, blocky pack ice...  (Always willing to breezily offer my non-expert opinion, as you have probably noticed.   ;) :P)
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2743 on: July 14, 2020, 11:04:53 PM »
I think there was a PBS special on Greenland, where for a couple days of the year, the natives could get into an "ice cave" to collect mussels or something, and the rock to ice span was 10-20 meters, and only 1-2 meters at the ceiling level. Could have been a First Nations of Canada special tho...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2744 on: July 15, 2020, 12:40:23 AM »
When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2745 on: July 15, 2020, 02:15:49 AM »
 ;D .. Hi P , you are not alone ..  ;)

 Happy Arctic Sea Ice Day to each and every one . May you all have an ice day  ;D b.c.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2746 on: July 15, 2020, 02:30:47 AM »
When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds.

Until now, I have not had a quote, but I'm adding one now, because I think it's important to remind ourselves that almost all the data we look at is, at best, "apparent."  Maybe all data is.  But when one speaks in terms of satellites "seeing" and reckons on the counting of pixels, I think it's worth remembering that our labels for some measures (like 'compaction') are more aspirational than actual.

With thanks to FOoW.
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2747 on: July 15, 2020, 03:34:43 AM »
As others have pointed out its amazing how much running its been the last 2 days over the Arctic.

Once again now that we haven't ANNULAR ridge developing.  We are seeing a big donut hole with dense fog again along the boundary layer because of intense low level warm air ADVECTION.

It wouldn't be surprising if there is drizzle falling with that fog.

Which will be DEVESTATING BECAUSE the DRIZZLE would be falling through air that is between 850mb and near surface where the air is 5-8C.

So those water droplets will CARRY quite a bit of extra heat.  The SURFACE cool area is likely 1-1.5C and it's likely that even 100-200 meters above the surface the temps jump up to 3-4C while rising even further above 250 meters slowly ascending towards a peak of 6-8C.

Today the service ARCTIC is at least 60-65 percent clear.

Just brutal.

The attached EURO image shows the insane 850mb temps.

Most of the area inside the 5C line is 7-8C.

It also correlates to where its sunny.

There is no doubt in my mind that the low ALBEDO so I early has helped positive feedback incredible low level warmth.

The albedo over most of the Arctic basin right now has been running between 30-50 percent reflectivity.

Dry snow covered ice is 85-90 percent.

Amazing drop.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2748 on: July 15, 2020, 04:00:21 AM »
WOW!!! The last few weeks have been incredible. I don’t have the way with words that Friv has, but this has been fun to watch!

Below is a map posted today on Twitter by Rick Thoman that I think will be very important to watch as we go forward and think about a possible record.  It shows the sea ice rankings for this day in each of the Arctic seas.

I am also posting screenshots of twitter posts by Judah Cohen and Zack Labe that agree with Friv and others that this high is going to persist for a while longer.

The interesting thing right now is trying to figure out if dispersion of the ice is worse than compaction this time of year.  Michael Hauber in post 2674 made a very important observation. The surface melting we are currently seeing even with this compaction is eating a lot of holes in the ice in very far north latitudes.

Paul is a very smart guy, and he has mentioned that the compaction might help the ice in the long term. I understand and agree with his position depending on what happens with the weather.

However, my humble opinion based on what we are currently seeing is that the surface melting eating those holes in the ice is very important , and if we later get a strong low In August that blows this ice apart and causes lots of side and bottom melting, we are very much in a position to beat 2012 even without a GAC.

That is probably a no brainer at this point, but what the hell, I want to add my 2 cents to the discussion 👍🏻
« Last Edit: July 15, 2020, 04:40:36 AM by Rod »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2749 on: July 15, 2020, 04:00:51 AM »
 12Z euro is amazing.

Just endless incredible sun and WAA.

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my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow