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jens

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2900 on: July 16, 2020, 08:43:56 AM »
Every year from 10th position downwards is more than 1M km2 behind 2020 now in extent. Even 2012 is more than 600k behind right now. 2012 obviously had an impressive August, so likely it would start closing the gap at some point. But really, it can be said that 2020 is indeed an extraordinary melting season.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2901 on: July 16, 2020, 09:03:20 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km2, a century drop of -151,088 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent


That's incredible.  The ice  losses will slow down because this summer would essentially  be melted  out if it doesn't. 

And because the thicker ice(2 Meters+) which is also the older 2-5 year old ice  is soon to be the only ice left.  And we are going to see a lot of it vanish this summer.



« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 09:09:34 AM by Frivolousz21 »
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jens

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2902 on: July 16, 2020, 09:47:46 AM »

That's incredible.  The ice  losses will slow down because this summer would essentially  be melted  out if it doesn't. 

Basically we have been at peak melt days. The trend of daily average losses of the last 10 years has been hitting -100,000 this week.

So obviously we are looking at a slow-down at some point, but incredible job has been done by 2020 nonetheless by now.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2903 on: July 16, 2020, 10:11:43 AM »
Over the past 24 hours, the ice boundary in the Laptev Sea has moved northward by 30 km.

Yossarian80

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2904 on: July 16, 2020, 10:21:38 AM »
Just amazing. I wouldn’t bet on it slowing down in the near future... the forecast is just too bad.

Given how awful the pattern looks the next five days, 2020 should be VERY far ahead on jaxa. A 120k daily average loss would put this year ~600k ahead of 2nd place by then. That much or more seems likely looking at the models tonight... a lead closer to 700k may be more realistic with the strengthening HP and massive melting/compaction that’s occurring and only going to get worse on the Eurasian side.

Beyond 120hrs there is some hope for a better pattern, ignoring any potential strong cyclones. Anything past five days is not a sure thing of course, so we’ll see.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2905 on: July 16, 2020, 11:03:24 AM »
     It looks like soon all the ice abutting continental coasts and major islands will be melted out.
How much difference does that make to Arctic-wide ice pack rotation? 
Does that free up the pack to rotate faster with consequences for transport into Barents, Fram Strait,  ESS, and Laptev melting zones, with possible addition of Ekman uplift of warmer subsurface water?
Looking at aluminium's gif July 1-15 (always a must-see,) says to me,
- just about all the ice abutting continental coasts and major islands is already melted out,
- the rotation is an ice killer,
- the seas that will get ice from the Central Arctic from rotation are
    - the Greenland Sea, the major ice cemetery,
    - possibly the Beaufort,
    - and the CAA which looks very warm for the next n days and could well become wide open to act as the Garlic Press.

What a time for NSIDC to go off-line
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2906 on: July 16, 2020, 11:08:10 AM »
An animation of the ADS concentration values at 5 days increments, from June 30th to July 15th.
(click to play)
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2907 on: July 16, 2020, 11:09:50 AM »
<snippage>
Trying to understand this FOOW. I see a map with outgoing longwave radiation anomaly which is +10-30 W/ m2 over a lot of the Arctic.

Incoming solar radiation is short wave. It is either absorbed at the surface (used to melt ice or converted to long wave which heats the water, land and atmosphere) or reflected back to space as short-wave radiation.

A positive OLR anomaly seems to be an indicator of an Arctic region emitting more heat than usual...
<snippage>

What that anomaly suggests is that there is more heat at the surface to support that long wave emission anomaly. 

Long wave is energy which has been captured and is being re-released as black body radiation. It's not reflected.  It won't be increasing unless the surface emitting it has gotten hotter.

There's no way it indicates something helpful for the ices.  Rather, it indicates the melt season heat budget is flush with exceptional surplus energy.

What OLR shows typically is the amount of clouds.  If there is a lot of clouds this will reflect a lot of short wave energy without it being converted into heat and long wave energy.  Low clouds and much more is absorbed and re-emitted as long wave.  So high OLR means clear skies and lots of short wave radiation absorbed by something.  Think of it as a rough proxy for albedo.  Used a lot in ENSO monitoring and similar weather watching to track general levels of cloudiness.  For the Arctic it would also change based on changes in ice.  Shiny white will reflect more short wave and emit less long wave.  Melting dull ice somewhat less and water much less.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2908 on: July 16, 2020, 11:12:52 AM »
There is some light cloud in places on this image.

There is indeed, but there wasn't so much in my original image which is from the 14th!
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2909 on: July 16, 2020, 11:24:34 AM »
A look at the evolution of open water north of Ellesmere Island and Greenland using uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, jun21-jul15

Further west, a reasonably clear shot of some of the Beaufort sea today.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2910 on: July 16, 2020, 11:33:31 AM »
Did the satellite break down?

The satellite seems to be OK, in so far as the OSI-SAF still appear to be happily using F18 SSMIS data:

http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?prod=Ice-Conc&area=NH

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HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2911 on: July 16, 2020, 11:46:04 AM »
I looked at the data and my tables, somewhat stunned. A minimum of 3.5 million km2 with average remaining melt?

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.

Quoting Gerontocrat from the data thread, snipped things out to leave the bits that have me sitting here feeling stunned, as well.

what
the
f

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2912 on: July 16, 2020, 11:46:55 AM »
The Slater 50 day probabilistic sea ice extent forecast... is showing a potential 10th place finish for NSIDC sea ice extent.

No it isn't:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#comment-340172

It is however currently showing a very early minimum
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2913 on: July 16, 2020, 12:04:13 PM »
Over the past 24 hours, the ice boundary in the Laptev Sea has moved northward by 30 km.

LOL go back 4-5 days and it has moved North like 100KM. 

On top of that if you zoom far in on modis and scroll between the days you will see  individual  large floes that are embedded  within the thin pancake  pack ice.

These floes once the winds turned out of a southerly based flow immediately started to abruptly fall apart and vanish while moving 25-40km a day thanks to a stupidly  warm low level wind and a blow torching open water Laptev.



ANYWAYS THE GIF ANIMATION BELOW I AM POSTING  IN RESPONSE TO THE CROWD THAT THINKS THE BASIN  ICE IS COMPACTED AND THAT WILL HELP PREVENT A WIDESPREAD COLLAPSE. 

WELL the image is a gif of the ESS and Chuchki region. 

One image is the 11th of July.  The other the 16th.



1.  Firstly I picked the 11th because BEFORE that DATE all the way back to June 25th that area is under a thick blanket  of clouds and or fog.

I stopped at the 25th because that many days with clouds  and fog theoretically would bring the assumption  that the ice in the  ESS region would have been shielded from major  disintegration.

Well clearly that isn't the case.   So on the 11th we can see the ice in that large region North  of WRANGEL island has seen roughly 50% of its 2D extent  vanish .  Now there is a ton of open water.

Weill  fast forward 5 days to the present and its very clear that at least another 15 percent of ice extent melted out.  Obviously  that region is all going to vanish. 

Not very long ago it appeared solid but it wasn't.

Thanks to stable winds the ice hasn't been raked back n forth.  Therefore it essentially melted in place  within the ice around it as the entire ice pack has been moving in unison thanks to the steady ANTICYCLONIC FLOw.

The image below it is from today.  Its looking at the far Northern  Laptev, the central basin including the pole, the Atlantic edge, and the far Northwest ESS.

It has been slightly darkened with  contrast beefed up to highlight regions where the ice appears darker than ice around  it. 

You may be wondering  what is causing that.

Its  not SOOT or DUST

it's not ALGAE  or PHOTOPLANKTON

In this instance it's just ice that has drained and is very thin.   Probably  between 0.2 and 0.5M thick. 


THIS THIN ICE STARTS TO APPEAR  DARKER AND DARKER BECAUSE THE OCEAN BELOW IS STARTING TO VISIBLY  APPEAR THROUGH THE ICE TO THE SAT SCANNER.


Thanks to the consistent winds  and ice around the super thin ice that is still 0.5-1.25M(thicker the further South towards North Canada) the ice is steadily melting in place.  Since winds have been long fetch relative motion...

BASICALLY THE ENTIRE PACK HAS BEEN  MOBILE MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE  DIRECTION.

This has eliminated almost all turbulence.  So for now we are going to see these  darkest areas start to melt out completely and large blotches of open water appear.   

That happened in the ESS except it was behind the clouds. 

The Atlantic /laptev side just  saw the entire ice pack shrink IN A HUGE WAY towards the NA coast.

Since winds are steady blowing that way what's happening is the Ice edge on the Siberian  side has pushed North while ice inside the pack has simultaneously  melted out.

This is why the pack has shrunk without the appearance  of large holes.


Looking at the current situation and the forecast.   Its likely we are about to see some big time holes start to open up inside the pack thanks to the insane insitu melt the last 15-20 days.

God speed
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 12:10:16 PM by Frivolousz21 »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2914 on: July 16, 2020, 12:10:47 PM »
That was an interesting pic Jim Hunt! Thank you! That pic should highlight a discussion whether we are going to see earlier seasonal minimums in the future when more of the inner CAB starts to melt out during summer.

So far, I think the earliest minimum according to NSIDC has occurred around 9/5.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2915 on: July 16, 2020, 12:14:09 PM »
Over the past 24 hours, the ice boundary in the Laptev Sea has moved northward by 30 km.

LOL go back 4-5 days and it has moved North like 100KM. 

On top of that if you zoom far in on modis and scroll between the days you will see  individual  large floes that are embedded  within the thin pancake  pack ice.

These floes once the winds turned out of a southerly based flow immediately started to abruptly fall apart and vanish while moving 25-40km a day thanks to a stupidly  warm low level wind and a blow torching open water Laptev.


It has already been written here that bottom melting often prevails over surface melting.

https://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/24-3_perovich.pdf

Quote
Surface melt in 2007 was typical for the Beaufort Sea, with melt starting in early June and a total of 0.7 m of surface melt. The difference in 2007 was the extremely large 2.1 m of bottom melting. There was a gradual buildup of heat in the upper ocean in July and August. Bottom melt rates increased throughout the summer, reaching peak values of 0.1 m d–1 in late August.


Bottom melting was 3 times higher than surface melting.

Killian

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2916 on: July 16, 2020, 12:18:41 PM »
If 2020 holds the pattern...

Do you have an estimate where that projection would land us towards the end of the melt season? Does it dip sub 3.00? Would also be cool to see a metric of how closely previous years follow the trend! (Though idk if that is more work than it is worth)

That's why I posted it. Just look at the yellow line: By mid-August, it's a new record. By the end of the line, it's a very healthy new record, with 2 to 5 weeks of melt season left. We have to pray this summer is absurdly anomalous such that the last 2 to 3 weeks are completely out of the ordinary and we then get a much cooler and calmer August than we've seen in many a year.

For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.

And currently 15%+ above average.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 12:38:34 PM by Killian »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2917 on: July 16, 2020, 12:30:16 PM »
The euro surface pressure and 850mb temps  hour 96-168.

Thanks to a messy vortex forming along the boundary layer of this UNBELIEVABLE PUSH OF HEAT THE FAUCET OF STRAIGHT INSANITY LEVEL WAA GETS STUNTED AFTER DAY 5. NOT TOTALLY. 

IF WE SEE THE ANTICYCLONE  STAY TOGETHER BETTER THAN FORECASTED THEN THE POOL OF HEAT INVADING THE INNER ARCTIC OUT OF SIBERIA  COULD END UP THE WARMEST ON MODERN RECORDS OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA.

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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2918 on: July 16, 2020, 12:37:35 PM »
The euro surface pressure and 850mb temps  hour 96-168.

Thanks to a messy vortex forming along the boundary layer of this UNBELIEVABLE PUSH OF HEAT THE FAUCET OF STRAIGHT INSANITY LEVEL WAA GETS STUNTED AFTER DAY 5. NOT TOTALLY. 

IF WE SEE THE ANTICYCLONE  STAY TOGETHER BETTER THAN FORECASTED THEN THE POOL OF HEAT INVADING THE INNER ARCTIC OUT OF SIBERIA  COULD END UP THE WARMEST ON MODERN RECORDS OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA.


There is another option that this year is more like 2007, not 2011. 2007, unlike 2012, pulled ahead in early July, not early August.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2919 on: July 16, 2020, 12:46:17 PM »
Today 2007 has overtaken 2006 by 450 thousand km2. Almost as well as now 2020 is ahead of 2011.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2920 on: July 16, 2020, 12:49:42 PM »
OLR negative anomalies show where the clouds are. Positive anomalies show up where there's anomalous positive surface heat as JD Allen wrote. I have been using OLR maps to track the MJO - Madden Julian Oscillation and areas of drought and excess rain for many years. OLR anomalies are rare on maps over the Arctic ocean because typically one very small number is subtracted from another very small number. The ice and water surfaces of the Arctic are generally quite cold and emit low levels of OLR. The Arctic ocean region generally shows no anomalies. Warm tropical and subtropical regions affected by La Niña and El Niño may show large anomalies.

This year is exceptional. That's why I am perplexed by Nico Sun's results.

Where has the solar energy from those anomalously clear skies gone? It is very clear that less short wave solar energy has been reflected back to space by clouds than normal. The obvious answer so far is that the energy has gone into melting ice, lowering the extent to record low levels, but what about the central Arctic and the Beaufort sea? Well, we're going to find out soon.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2921 on: July 16, 2020, 01:01:36 PM »
Right now decent fetch winds hitting the laptev ice front with warm ssta and over 2.6m waves.

Check the period. There's a few wind waves sloshing around in the Laptev Sea, but no long distance swell to speak of that I can see?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2922 on: July 16, 2020, 01:09:21 PM »
This year is exceptional.

Apparently, at the present time, according to the current situation of separation from other years, there are only two options for the further development of events: 2011 or 2007. Either the melting will soon stop, or the accumulated energy of the heated water in the coastal seas will melt a record amount of ice.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2923 on: July 16, 2020, 01:21:07 PM »
Arctic 2m temperatures have been declining in the last week and the regional surface temperature anomaly is close to 0C per GFS after 7 months of being off the charts.

Ice is an insulator. Freshly exposed Arctic Ocean water is well below 0C.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2924 on: July 16, 2020, 01:35:21 PM »
I am starting to think that the real wonders will come after September-October. All that insolation had to warm up the seas very much and it will take a very long time for them to cool down. We could see a very late freezing season with a steady low pressure system and plenty of clouds...

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2925 on: July 16, 2020, 01:37:36 PM »
I haven't had any time for sea ice this year, but wow, this season is exceptional. I thought it was worth reminding ourselves where the ice is this year vs. 2012 (first image). Basically, 2020 is slightly ahead north of the Barents and Kara seas, ahead in Chukchi, and far ahead in ESS and Laptev. In the areas that matter, 2012 is only far ahead in Beaufort. Having said that, an extent comparison exaggerates the difference a bit, as there is greater compaction in 2020.

Then, looking at current melt conditions, I looked back at Worldview for the second half of July in 2012, 2016 and 2019. All were dominated by cloudy weather, although 2012 did clear up a few times. 2020 is forecast to stay relatively clear.

Looking at the most recent day in 2012 and 2020 (2nd and 3rd image), the difference is striking. 2012 has slightly more rubble north of Beaufort, and obviously much less ice in Beaufort, but apart from that 2020 looks worse in every way. There is definitely more melt ponding/surface wetness in 2020. Cloud cover speaks for itself.

Qs: Is insolation in the second half of July strong enough to do so much damage to the relatively thick ice in the CAB that some of it will melt out by the end of the season?
Will continued clockwise rotation of the ice push the weak-looking ice in the ESS into the warm Laptev waters? If so, it won't be long of this world. Will some of the Beaufort ice also be pushed into warmer waters?
Will the Atlantic ice edge continue to push north, or will it stagnate just north of Svalbard/Franz Josef?
Is this the big year, or is it just setting us up for next year?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2926 on: July 16, 2020, 01:48:19 PM »
This is a good day to compare and contrast 2020 and 2016 between the pole and Laptev on WV . In one year the ice looks compact . Pretty sure it's not 2016 . However , this year the ice looks certain to melt out to 96.5N with ease if conditions remain favourable . As FRiv says it's getting thinner by the day and the floes are getting ready to flow . lunch ! b.c.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2927 on: July 16, 2020, 01:57:07 PM »

Where has the solar energy from those anomalously clear skies gone? It is very clear that less short wave solar energy has been reflected back to space by clouds than normal. The obvious answer so far is that the energy has gone into melting ice, lowering the extent to record low levels, but what about the central Arctic and the Beaufort sea? Well, we're going to find out soon.
Maybe the compressing anticyclone has reinforced melting CAB from the pack edges? Hence the expanding Greenland crack etc.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2928 on: July 16, 2020, 02:08:13 PM »
OLR negative anomalies show where the clouds are. Positive anomalies show up where there's anomalous positive surface heat as JD Allen wrote. I have been using OLR maps to track the MJO - Madden Julian Oscillation and areas of drought and excess rain for many years. OLR anomalies are rare on maps over the Arctic ocean because typically one very small number is subtracted from another very small number. The ice and water surfaces of the Arctic are generally quite cold and emit low levels of OLR. The Arctic ocean region generally shows no anomalies. Warm tropical and subtropical regions affected by La Niña and El Niño may show large anomalies.

This year is exceptional. That's why I am perplexed by Nico Sun's results.

Where has the solar energy from those anomalously clear skies gone? It is very clear that less short wave solar energy has been reflected back to space by clouds than normal. The obvious answer so far is that the energy has gone into melting ice, lowering the extent to record low levels, but what about the central Arctic and the Beaufort sea? Well, we're going to find out soon.

Foow, I think Warming potential is exactly that, a potential. I have noted that years with a lot of dispersion and open water (2016 most notably) Nico Sun's product predicts a very high potential. That's right, if it wasn't that what is causing the potential (storms) come accompanied by clouds, so the potential is partially realized.

This year the pack shows relative compactness but I suspect it is in a sweet (or sour) spot of being cloud-free and having plenty of melt ponds. If we could have a real warming map, this year should be breaking the roof.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2929 on: July 16, 2020, 02:11:38 PM »
Looking at this dark area, I have some thoughts. Did we really see the Laptev Bite this year?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2930 on: July 16, 2020, 02:49:08 PM »
Ummm...wow, if this verifies, the poor Laptev is toast. 

Don't worry:  at the surface this will "only" translate into balmy 1.5C air blowing in at 36 km/hr.

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The Kolyma, The Lena, hey, why don't we float on down to
Laptev shoals
It's melting fast so we can take it slow
That's where we wanna go
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2931 on: July 16, 2020, 02:57:40 PM »
5 days out. How likely is it that such a weather condition holds for so long?

Does anyone know how often there are such long-lived anticyclones over the Arctic in July? Were these in past years?

Way back these were way more common, but that would be -1970s... this was for the ice was rather solid then. Nowadays a whole bunch of moisture gets out of the open sea and cracks so I'm surprised this has lasted as long as it has.

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2932 on: July 16, 2020, 03:16:55 PM »
The Slater 50 day probabilistic sea ice extent forecast... is showing a potential 10th place finish for NSIDC sea ice extent.

No it isn't:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#comment-340172

It is however currently showing a very early minimum

Jim,

The Slater 50-day forecast is based on daily data. Each day the forecast is re-run. The earlier dips in the forecast where when we had sensors being tricked by melt ponds in the CAA and parts of the CAB. This model uses Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations and
Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data.

https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
 
As soon as NSIDC ice data rebounded in the CAA and parts of the CAB, the 50-day forecast predicted a higher value. The earlier dip was due to inaccurate data. I interpret the model as no early minimum with a potential 10th place finish. Perhaps it would be best to research how such models work, before making comments in the future.




« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 03:53:51 PM by weatherdude88 »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2933 on: July 16, 2020, 03:30:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Large Gif!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2934 on: July 16, 2020, 04:09:57 PM »
Laptev melt highlighting one of Friv's large floes.
https://go.nasa.gov/3eAlCx9 (cropped), jun8-jul15  9.8MB

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2935 on: July 16, 2020, 04:14:40 PM »
The Slater 50 day probabilistic sea ice extent forecast... is showing a potential 10th place finish for NSIDC sea ice extent.

No it isn't:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#comment-340172

It is however currently showing a very early minimum
At this point, Slater's completely useless. It is made based on past melt dynamics, is it not. And by now, 2020 season is going off the recorded trends. It's like predicting a car crash based on good amount of past data about how the car is driving around without any accident, eh. Won't work.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2936 on: July 16, 2020, 04:39:41 PM »
We have been overlooking a powerful set of imagery that does a fantastic job at the peak of the melt season of discriminating between clouds, thin vs thick ice and thick, cold glacial ice. That's the Suomi nighttime imagery. At this time of year it is effectively very low sun angle imagery that shows cloud height very well. It also seems to show thin ice and melt pond covered areas darker on gray scale. Greenland's thick cold snow covered highlands shine brightly as do high clouds.

If you scroll through the last 2 weeks on worldview you can see how exceptionally cloud free the polar region has been under this period of extraordinary high pressure. I used a screen shot because it shows lat lon lines in polar coordinates. This is the night time image for 15 July 2020.

Note that this imagery shows isolated thick floes in the Beaufort gyre in a sea of very thin ice. It looks like the Hycom model is getting it right on the thinning of the Beaufort sea ice.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 04:49:24 PM by FishOutofWater »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2937 on: July 16, 2020, 04:43:53 PM »
LOL, i was just making a GIF with D&N band! Coincidence? I think not!  ;)

The Lincoln suffers swisscheeseification. Note how there is no export via Nares so far. (Click to play)

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2938 on: July 16, 2020, 04:54:30 PM »
And I was just making a Lincoln-Nares GiF...

Some of the thickest ice in the Arctic (according to PIOMAS anyway) has been lifted off northern Greenland in the past few days. Will it get sucked into the Nares? Will it manage to make the turn north past Ellesmere? Or will the anti-cyclone subside and help it get back to the Greenland coast where it belongs?
My gut feeling says some of this is going down the Nares. Lucky the strait is just 20 km wide.
Click to animate.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2939 on: July 16, 2020, 04:56:22 PM »
The ice in the Lincoln sea has been under extensional stress/strain and much shear and rotation. That has caused thinning and melting from below. That ice is in terrible shape. Note that some of the ice going through the Nares strait is melting out before it makes it through the strait. The very thick ice that used to be on the northwest shore of Greenland is gone, replaced by much thinner ice. This is allowing more upwelling of relatively warm salty water that gets into the Lincoln sea, thinning the ice there.

No doubt, there are some areas where that ice on the NW shore of Greenland has been compacted into pressure ridges and stacked floes, but PIOMAS may be optimistic about the average thickness of the ice that's going to be flowing into the Nares strait. I think that there's a lot more upwelling along that coastline now that the fast ice is gone.

The thickest ice is naturally outlined in white. Most of it is rotating with the pack but chunks of it are breaking up then going down the Nares in small fragments. Some of it is pulverized into smithereens. Note this June 11 image.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 05:14:04 PM by FishOutofWater »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2940 on: July 16, 2020, 05:28:46 PM »
Grrr. I post this daily...

Laptev has bitten about 135km in the past 6 days.
big time oops

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2941 on: July 16, 2020, 05:37:15 PM »
Can you please provide evidence of ice stacking on top of ot self to maintain thickness???

Pressure ridges are all over but they are only a few meters wide.

Its truly astonishing how many different excuses you guys are coming up with to rationalize away the most prolific warmth(May-present) we have every seen in the arctic basin and the decimation its caused.

This idea that the ice is super compact is a joke that you can visibly dispel on worldview.

Just because an ice cover may be compact, it does not mean its thick and I got to say looking at worldview, it really does not look thick but dispersion compare to say 2016 is alot less but so is extent. I always say, dispersion hurts the ice more in the longer term than the shorter term if the conditions are right. There is a good reason why so much extent was lost in 2012 when that storm hit, it was because the ice was dispersed, full of holes and the storm hit in just the right area to split a large chunk of the ice pack and melt it away.

I must say though, given how low extent is and the warm SSTS, maybe the damage is done already?


All the data I checked a few days ago hint at widely spread below 1m thickness, als vast areas around 1m thick and a relatively small are aroun 1.5 meter thickness + the usual locations with MYI above 2m thick.

Hence, yes it's relatively thin and can melt out in situ in big parts within 35-40 days

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2942 on: July 16, 2020, 05:43:03 PM »
The north of Greenland has been really warm especially since late June. Loads of melt and run-off into the Nares Strait and NE Coastal waters. This is set to continue and perhaps increase for a few days from this weekend. And if the North of Greenland is warm, then so will be the Ellesmere shore.

More energy available for sea ice melt?

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igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2943 on: July 16, 2020, 05:47:33 PM »
Every year from 10th position downwards is more than 1M km2 behind 2020 now in extent. Even 2012 is more than 600k behind right now. 2012 obviously had an impressive August, so likely it would start closing the gap at some point. But really, it can be said that 2020 is indeed an extraordinary melting season.


Once we reach a 0.8 - 1M km2 headstart into August 2012 won't make this up most probably because the big fall of extent in 2012 was a round 1M in about 7-10 days and after that resumed to more moderate levels.

IMO the main scenario for 2020 falling behind later in August would be an early slowdown which, due to the vast areas of warm open waters near the pole, is either less and less likely to happen or if it happens will happen on an already extremely low level of extent, area thickness and volume all together.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2944 on: July 16, 2020, 05:49:41 PM »
LOL, i was just making a GIF with D&N band! Coincidence? I think not!  ;)

The Lincoln suffers swisscheeseification. Note how there is no export via Nares so far. (Click to play)
And the crack is still going strong on the Greenland coast on the latest Worldview July 16.  Maintaining its size (about 40km wide max), and with at least one spill of small floes from the main pack coming into it.  Maybe those spills are a signal of the lack of the integrity of the main pack.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 06:07:50 PM by Pagophilus »

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2945 on: July 16, 2020, 05:51:02 PM »
An animation of the ADS concentration values at 5 days increments, from June 30th to July 15th.
(click to play)


Great job, one of the first gifs at all that has a decently reduced speed so that one can follow the development in detail.

I wish that would become a norm  ;)

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2946 on: July 16, 2020, 05:57:13 PM »
This year is exceptional.

Apparently, at the present time, according to the current situation of separation from other years, there are only two options for the further development of events: 2011 or 2007. Either the melting will soon stop, or the accumulated energy of the heated water in the coastal seas will melt a record amount of ice.


There is at least one more and that would be a unique and new 2020 development beside a possible 2012 like GAC development.

We should not compare current years too much with years around and over a decade ago because too many parameters has changed since then.

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2947 on: July 16, 2020, 05:59:29 PM »
I am starting to think that the real wonders will come after September-October. All that insolation had to warm up the seas very much and it will take a very long time for them to cool down. We could see a very late freezing season with a steady low pressure system and plenty of clouds...


Yes, probably a jump start above 80N into the freezing season and then a painfully slow freeze in increments, depending on the weather.

with such thin ice that late, FRIV's idea of a partial november re-melt becomes a possibility as well.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2948 on: July 16, 2020, 06:03:12 PM »
The north of Greenland has been really warm especially since late June. Loads of melt and run-off into the Nares Strait and NE Coastal waters. This is set to continue and perhaps increase for a few days from this weekend. And if the North of Greenland is warm, then so will be the Ellesmere shore.

More energy available for sea ice melt?

Also presumably a lot of runoff fresh meltwater (around 0 C?) flowing off the north Greenland coast in anomalous amounts.  This freshwater will float on the sea water.  I don't know if it is warmer than the seawater.  Maybe there is not enough of this freshwater, but could it be having a significant effect also on the edges of the icepack around Greenland?  (I know the cracks along the N Am coast are produced largely by the consistent high over the pole).

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #2949 on: July 16, 2020, 06:14:41 PM »
The Slater 50 day probabilistic sea ice extent forecast... is showing a potential 10th place finish for NSIDC sea ice extent.

No it isn't:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/07/facts-about-the-arctic-in-july-2020/#comment-340172

It is however currently showing a very early minimum

Jim,

The Slater 50-day forecast is based on daily data. Each day the forecast is re-run. The earlier dips in the forecast where when we had sensors being tricked by melt ponds in the CAA and parts of the CAB. This model uses Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations and
Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data.

https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
 
As soon as NSIDC ice data rebounded in the CAA and parts of the CAB, the 50-day forecast predicted a higher value. The earlier dip was due to inaccurate data. I interpret the model as no early minimum with a potential 10th place finish. Perhaps it would be best to research how such models work, before making comments in the future.


I don't think he said anything else or that he (or anyone here) doesn't know that by now.

What I think is that Slater's forecasts have proven as close to a general accuracy over so many years that the details only matter for analysis and learning but not for an assessment.

Also if I look at it now, except perhaps for the last days of the forecast, it's forecasted outcome is quite probable.