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Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3050 on: July 17, 2020, 06:25:45 PM »
...
Melting in the dark is a big NOPE.

You would think so but with some strong weather and hot water still around it could push the minimum farther back.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3051 on: July 17, 2020, 06:27:16 PM »
It's going to be extremely interesting to see the implications of the possible upcoming storm/low that will hit the arctic. I really don't know what to expect with it, but I feel like any ice kicked into the Laptev will more or less be doomed. The Beaufort has been the one surprise this year where it is still holding onto its ice, but 'holding' is a relative term.

I'm amazed at how fast some ice is still melting...and it makes me wonder what will happen when we have the ENTIRE month of August to still contend with. I think the absolute worst case scenario is that a storm hits (and even a moderately strong one at this point is enough) and then is replaced by the same high pressure system.
pls!

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3052 on: July 17, 2020, 06:30:45 PM »

But the garlic press is broken. The Crack we saw late last year has reopened and created an open-water boundary between Greenland/CAA (except, for now, a stretch between Borden and Axel Heiberg) and the CAB. Worse, the floes on the CAB side of that Crack are being pushed clockwise -- NOT south into the CAA garlic press. In the Arctic offshore of Prince Patrick Island, I can track individual floes moving west toward the Beaufort at about 10 km/day.

This is why the Beaufort seems so resistant to melt this season. It's the new Greenland Sea, a region receiving large volumes of exported ice. But just like the Greenland Sea, high area there is not good news. The ice being shoved west this way includes some of the last vestiges of true MYI. And so it doesn't matter if the winds stop and the rotation stops and the Crack "meanders" closed. Because the ice is no longer where it belongs.

This was a real eye opener for me Ossifrage and explains a lot! Very important in my opinion.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3053 on: July 17, 2020, 06:35:14 PM »
Melt pretty much stops the last week of August when insolation is at half the solstice-max. Three weeks later, in mid September, insolation hits ZERO.

Melting in the dark is a big NOPE.

I wonder what Friv would say about this. Like was mentioned few pages ago:

I am starting to think that the real wonders will come after September-October. All that insolation had to warm up the seas very much and it will take a very long time for them to cool down. We could see a very late freezing season with a steady low pressure system and plenty of clouds...
Yes, probably a jump start above 80N into the freezing season and then a painfully slow freeze in increments, depending on the weather.

with such thin ice that late, FRIV's idea of a partial november re-melt becomes a possibility as well.

November re-melt - probably some space mirrors channeling summer sun all the way back? ;D

Further, back in the old days, and i mean really old days, geologically - Arctic was ice-free 24/365 with crocodiles (who just can't live in freezing water) happily inhabiting the waters. Last i heard, Earth was still going same 40000-year cycles between 22...24.5 tilt. Means same polar night as we have today.

I hope you won't try to convince us it's modern paleontologists who secretly transported crocodile fossils into the Arctic to make some sensation in some journal for "discovering" 'em...  8)

edit: oh and this is not discussing this melt season minimum date a slightest. That's me protesting against unacceptably wrong statement - and made in CAPS at that.  >:(
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 06:45:12 PM by F.Tnioli »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3054 on: July 17, 2020, 06:36:46 PM »
Melt pretty much stops the last week of August when insolation is at half the solstice-max. Three weeks later, in mid September, insolation hits ZERO.

Melting in the dark is a big NOPE.
2010's average extent loss (JAXA) from 31 August to minimum is 206k km2.
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3055 on: July 17, 2020, 06:57:11 PM »
Looks like the 7-day forecast is coming into better focus with the GAAC drifting to the ESS and (finally) dissipating, low pressure entering from Russia along the Atlantic ice margin bringing rain to the central Arctic and, along with the GAAC, bringing very warm air northward from Siberia, and then a possible broad low pressure maybe in sub 990mb range consolidating in the Beaufort region with maybe some sunny high pressure along the Atlantic.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3056 on: July 17, 2020, 07:11:28 PM »
Melt pretty much stops the last week of August when insolation is at half the solstice-max. Three weeks later, in mid September, insolation hits ZERO.

Melting in the dark is a big NOPE.
2010's average extent loss (JAXA) from 31 August to minimum is 206k km2.

Exactly. That is melt pretty much stopping. If the concept is a struggle, look at a graph.
big time oops

Thawing Thunder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3057 on: July 17, 2020, 07:13:23 PM »
This was a real eye opener for me Ossifrage and explains a lot! Very important in my opinion.

Toggle forth and back with the NASA-Worldview, this helps much better than the average animation to really see what's going on:

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-5734400,-3162112,5734400,3162112&p=arctichttps://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-5734400,-3162112,5734400,3162112&p=arctic
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3058 on: July 17, 2020, 07:39:25 PM »
F.T, I did keep a link and sort of invitation in posts 3034, 3035, and some small initial posts before that. My tools and time are both limited, but point taken.
Thanks for the melt season length paper.

GSY, bottom melt can and does continue in the dark. Besides, some of the ice is at 75-80N, not 90N. The Arctic is a big place. The area minimum is determined by freeze onset, which can happen before or after dark and is weather dependent, but yes is highly correlated with the equinox. Extent minimum is usually a few days later, as peripheral ice continues melting while open water within the pack already freezes.

All, thanks for the very interesting discussion.

misfratz

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3059 on: July 17, 2020, 07:40:31 PM »
Melt pretty much stops the last week of August when insolation is at half the solstice-max. Three weeks later, in mid September, insolation hits ZERO.

Melting in the dark is a big NOPE.
2010's average extent loss (JAXA) from 31 August to minimum is 206k km2.
Is that a lot higher than in, say, the 1990s?

I keep meaning to check whether the date of minimum has shifted later. On the one hand I'd expect the extra heat in the Arctic Ocean to prolong melting later, but on the other hand the reduction in ice area at the minimum means that the edge of the sea ice is further north, where you'd expect melting to end earlier.

The two effects may currently cancel.

Simon

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3060 on: July 17, 2020, 07:47:12 PM »
Melt pretty much stops the last week of August when insolation is at half the solstice-max. Three weeks later, in mid September, insolation hits ZERO.

Melting in the dark is a big NOPE.

I wonder what Friv would say about this. Like was mentioned few pages ago:

I am starting to think that the real wonders will come after September-October. All that insolation had to warm up the seas very much and it will take a very long time for them to cool down. We could see a very late freezing season with a steady low pressure system and plenty of clouds...
Yes, probably a jump start above 80N into the freezing season and then a painfully slow freeze in increments, depending on the weather.

with such thin ice that late, FRIV's idea of a partial november re-melt becomes a possibility as well.

November re-melt - probably some space mirrors channeling summer sun all the way back? ;D

Further, back in the old days, and i mean really old days, geologically - Arctic was ice-free 24/365 with crocodiles (who just can't live in freezing water) happily inhabiting the waters. Last i heard, Earth was still going same 40000-year cycles between 22...24.5 tilt. Means same polar night as we have today.

I hope you won't try to convince us it's modern paleontologists who secretly transported crocodile fossils into the Arctic to make some sensation in some journal for "discovering" 'em...  8)

edit: oh and this is not discussing this melt season minimum date a slightest. That's me protesting against unacceptably wrong statement - and made in CAPS at that.  >:(
No idea how a reference to the Eocene is relevant to the 2020 melt season except perhaps it demonstrates that Arctic regions can go ice free with an 8C higher temperature.

Comradez

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3061 on: July 17, 2020, 07:54:03 PM »
If you want a preview of the coming week for that gray slush ice in the East Siberian Sea, check out what happened to similarly-looking remnant ice in the Laptev the last couple of days.  (Click to animate gif).

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3062 on: July 17, 2020, 07:56:30 PM »
Love what FRIV contributes here. But November melt is a concept I'm taking a hard PASS on.

<Please avoid misspelling poster names, whether intentionally or not. O>
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 04:20:44 PM by oren »
big time oops

Comradez

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3063 on: July 17, 2020, 08:09:37 PM »
Yeah, I'm gonna take a hard pass on November melt as well...at least, on balance.  I suppose with enough open arctic ocean and wave action the CAB could stay stagnant in extent into November (although I would still expect the areas with ice in the CAB to harden up and solidify in terms of area/concentration).  But sheltered bays are still going to be locus-points of refreeze along the coasts...at least, until there is so much accumulated heat in the CAB and peripheral seas from multiple blue-ocean-events in a row that the air temperatures remain around freezing into the winter for coastal Siberia. 

I think increasingly as we get closer to a BOE, we are going to see the refreeze proceed from the coasts inwards towards the North Pole. 

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3064 on: July 17, 2020, 08:38:25 PM »
Uh oh


Yossarian80

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3065 on: July 17, 2020, 08:40:47 PM »
965mb bomb cyclone by day 7 on the new 12z Euro


bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3066 on: July 17, 2020, 08:58:49 PM »
Cataclysmic

If the Arctic were a "ballerina" it would be centered near the Laptev front.... this is very bad....

Below is 12z Euro D0->D9

The ATL front collapses entirely so does Beaufort Chukchi ESS and the Lincoln Sea is about to empty out....?

Also the CMC is now aligned with the EURO, we now have both models in consensus over the evolution of the scenario


aslan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3067 on: July 17, 2020, 09:08:29 PM »
WTF

The IFS did remember what a thunderstorm of the free atmosphere means. No surprise here. Fasten your seat belt we are going for a wild ride for weather forecast -& probably for sea ice also-. Anticyclone are so anoying, now it is time for real weather forecast and putting balls on the desk :D

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3068 on: July 17, 2020, 09:11:35 PM »
Anyone who knows what the most intensive Arctic cyclone in July is? Have there been any cases below 970 hpa in July?

Yossarian80

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3069 on: July 17, 2020, 09:46:29 PM »
The weather the next 3-4 days still looks primed for melting... worse than previous days imo given the increase in southerly winds on the Russian side.  So extrapolating out with 130k+ daily losses, which seems reasonable, we are likely to be over 700k ahead of second place on jaxa, before this potential cyclone even hits.  Yikes.

Plus, taken verbatim on the Euro, the cyclone would impact the entire basin, but have the most impact on the Beaufort region... which has plenty of relatively easy ice to lose to “play catch up.”  It is honestly scary to think what the numbers could look like 10 days from now.

Stephan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3070 on: July 17, 2020, 09:53:35 PM »
...  The "7.0M"s may last only 8 days!  This would be a new record for this span.)

Today the "7.0M" stands at 7 days and there is only 7.078-7 = 0.078 M km² left. Could there be a "7 days" in the end ?!?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Comradez

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3071 on: July 17, 2020, 10:18:27 PM »
Wow, if that 965 mb low verifies (or even if it is sub-980), the CAB is about to get the "washing machine" treatment (intense southerly winds followed by intense northerly winds). 

And looking at the gif I posted above showing part of the Laptev from July 14-17, it seems like something like the "washing machine" effect is what torched the ice there so badly.  You can see the rubble drifting one way for the first couple of days, and then an abrupt shift and the silky strands of rubble getting swirled into a turbulent mess. 

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3072 on: July 17, 2020, 10:22:00 PM »
Anyone who knows what the most intensive Arctic cyclone in July is? Have there been any cases below 970 hpa in July?

I've seen them appear in forecasts ; I remember noting once that there were several in a forecast on gfs .. 2017 or 18. They didn't materialize . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3073 on: July 17, 2020, 11:26:21 PM »
Anyone who knows what the most intensive Arctic cyclone in July is? Have there been any cases below 970 hpa in July?

I've seen them appear in forecasts ; I remember noting once that there were several in a forecast on gfs .. 2017 or 18. They didn't materialize . b.c.

Considering how the previous major cyclones all didn't materialise, is this indicative of a problem with the weather forecasting predicting phantom bomb cyclones? If so, I think we probably shouldn't trust this forecast.
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3074 on: July 17, 2020, 11:35:16 PM »
Anyone who knows what the most intensive Arctic cyclone in July is? Have there been any cases below 970 hpa in July?
I've seen them appear in forecasts ; I remember noting once that there were several in a forecast on gfs .. 2017 or 18. They didn't materialize . b.c.
     be cause's caution about forecast verification is duly noted, but if that beast actually occurs (965?!) we are into twilight zone strangness for ASI.

    I think the answer to Lord Vader's question must be 'not since accurate modern monitoring began'.  There has only been a total of 3 below 970 in August since 1979, and August is a much bigger cyclone month than July.  Those three events were in 2012 (all time lowest at 966.4, 1995 at 966.9 in 2nd place, 1991 at 969.2 in 3rd place, and 4th place also in 1991 at 970.5.
(A younger and less temperate Friv must have been freaking out in 1991!)

      The frequncies in graph are from a population of 1618 August Arctic cyclones.  Graph title is "Frequency distribution of August (1979–2012) Arctic cyclone properties for (a) central pressure".  It is from The great Arctic cyclone of August 2012 by Ian Simmonds and Irina Rudeva.  GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23709, doi:10.1029/2012GL054259, 2012. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL054259

« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 12:37:56 AM by Glen Koehler »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3075 on: July 17, 2020, 11:40:34 PM »
Anyone who knows what the most intensive Arctic cyclone in July is? Have there been any cases below 970 hpa in July?

I've seen them appear in forecasts ; I remember noting once that there were several in a forecast on gfs .. 2017 or 18. They didn't materialize . b.c.

But in 2018 there was a powerful cyclone in the Kara Sea. At the beginning of June.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/a-new-arctic-cyclone-could-be-among-the-most-powerful-o-1826679817


Quote
The Arctic is no stranger to cyclones, but the latest no-name storm, which emerged in the Kara sea north of Siberia, has garnered attention both for its size and timing. The storm’s central pressure (a measure of its strength) bottomed out Thursday at about 966 millibars, placing it par with the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, one of the most extreme summertime storms in recent memory. That storm reached a minimum central pressure 963-966 millibars, depending on which analysis you trust.

The new storm’s occurrence in June is also noteworthy. Big cyclones like this don’t normally start hitting the Arctic until late summer. The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 spun up in August as did a major storm in 2016.

“Preliminarily, this storm could rank in the Top 10 for Arctic Cyclones in June as well as for the summer (June through August) in strength,” Steven Cavallo, a meteorologist at the University of Oklahoma, told Earther via email.


Quote
Update 6/12: According to Cavallo, the storm has officially clocked in as the third strongest June-August cyclone for the region using the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset, which goes back to 1958.



2012, 2016, 2018 .... 2020 ???

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3076 on: July 17, 2020, 11:42:41 PM »
At this point it's  a storm in a computer, much too far out to be forecast accurately. The models agree that changes are coming to the weather patterns, not only in the Arctic, but around the northern hemisphere. I'm also watching the tropics in the Atlantic for activity in the main development region. At the same time that pressure is dropping around the pole it is also dropping in the tropical Atlantic as the Indian ocean region moves from uplift to subsidence at 200mb in the forecasts. It's all connected, but don't expect a great accuracy at a time of shifting atmospheric circulation patterns.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3077 on: July 17, 2020, 11:52:14 PM »
Just a reminder, to really damage the ice a bomb cyclone not only needs low pressure, it has to be relatively long-lived and positioned so as to create long fetches. Right now I’m more concerned about the low earlier in the forecast bringing excessive heat and moisture from Siberia.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3078 on: July 18, 2020, 12:44:10 AM »
It is kind of funny to be so mesmerized by the plunging extent numbers, and yet they can be an indirect and sometimes counterintuitive representation of all that is going on.  The compaction of the icecap by the high helped send the extent numbers plunging, but that compaction probably helped preserve the ice.  So dropping extent can be, in a way, 'good'.  It was the increased solar radiation reaching the surface caused by the high that has done so much damage to the ice, and actual extent has little to do with that.

Paradoxically, one of the worst things that could happen is for a big and persistent low or similar weather system to arrive and scatter the ice.  Maybe that will occur, and let's hope it doesn't.  But if it does, it will either temporarily slow, or even reverse, the decline in extent numbers.  Thus an apparent hiatus in extent losses would be terrible news for the ice as it is sent out into the surrounding warm seas, and as warm, saline water is perhaps churned to the surface of the Arctic.  (And all this might be happening just as insolation is fading fast and bottom melt becomes paramount.)

I guess what is ironic to me is that, in the short term, extent losses can indicate almost the opposite of what they seem to imply.  In the longer term, of course, there is no argument, net loss of extent by September is an unequivocally bad thing. 

Sorry if all this is very obvious to all you experienced ice watchers out there ... had to get it off my chest.   Here's hoping the ice pack stays together...
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 01:00:07 AM by Pagophilus »

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3079 on: July 18, 2020, 01:35:00 AM »
Thinking about what might happen next ...

Many of the great weather forecasters here on ASIF have already mentioned this, but a head Met at an agency in the UK seems to agree.

James Peacock is a great meteorologist who follows sea ice closely. He watches the ASIF, and might even have an account here.

Today he posted what might be some scary news for the ice if it comes true. His model runs support what others have said that we might see a strong low over the Beaufort in about a week. Since the Beaufort is the last remaining hold out for the ice, that will be bad if it happens. It will churn up warm water and cause mechanical breakup of existing floes.

Ossifrage in post 3036 provides additional evidence as to why this might be really bad if it happens this year.

The forecast is still a week out, and could change. But, for what it is worth, here it is:

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3080 on: July 18, 2020, 02:11:09 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ 250hPa

Large GiFS!
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 02:20:31 AM by Freegrass »
Now let's pray...

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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3081 on: July 18, 2020, 02:49:18 AM »
The deep low is plausible as you got hot air mixing in with cooler air. Other thing to note is that heat blast into the ESS has toned up a bit more, it looks stronger and the more heat that enters, the likely hood of a deep low increases.

Tony Mcleod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3082 on: July 18, 2020, 03:13:34 AM »
... that heat blast into the ESS has toned up a bit more...

Latest has warm Asian air almost reaching Greenland via the Noth Pole. :o (850hPa)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/07/21/0000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-246.75,83.14,919/loc=-80.755,85.357

At the surface, 20-30km/hr, long fetch, driving straight into the Laptev bite with SST already 1C at 80 N. Ever seen bees wax melt?

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3083 on: July 18, 2020, 03:32:22 AM »
As Friv pointed out, there is lifting occuring from the warm air coming from the siberian coast above the boundary layer. It is becoming a new normal, but still on the scale of weather craziness this easily reached the batshit crazy level... Soundings are the ones forecasted from IFS 12Z (cf. the picture from wetterzentrale) over ESS and Laptev, in the ridge of warm Theta'w. If the forecast verifies as it is, this means thunderstorms. This is also probably adding instability to the forecast.

Sorry for quoting myself, but this is really going to be an important point. There is a first low east of Taymyr and Severna Zemlya, from now to H+120, going down to ~995 hPa at 72h - 96h. This first low is going to bring a massive surge of heat from Siberia, and rough sea over Laptev bite tanks to the fetch of the now open Lapev sea. But, in this massive surge of heat, isentropic lift and thunderstorms are likely, wich is going to bring cyclogenesis. This secondary low starting from the front of the first low is the one to look. Like last year and one or other years before, isentropic lift and buoyancy is going to be an important factor, thanks to the reccord warmth ongoing. And like others years, it is way more likely that models are underestimating the deepening of this low than the other way round. This can be seen comparing precipitations from the 00Z and the 06Z of GFS. The GFS 06Z is way waty worst for sea ice than the 00Z, and one reason is probably due to stronger thunderstorms and higher max rain rate forecasted in the 96H - 120H range in the front of the first low. The 00Z is reaching "only" 10 - 15mm in 06 hours -this already qualify as bath crazy for Arctic...-, the 06Z is reaching more than 30 (30 !!!) mm in 06h under the strongest cells. Don't ask why the 06Z is total mayhem for sea ice....

 this post from Aslan earlier is worth a visit .. this has been a busy thread lately and it might have gotton missed by some .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Rod

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3084 on: July 18, 2020, 03:55:49 AM »
Expanding on my earlier comment about this being a very bad year already for Arctic sea ice, much ado is made every year about the minimum every year as we draw ever nearer to a BOE.  However, we are arguably actually in the time of year ( if a little past the peak ) now when low sea ice does the most damage and contributes most to global warming.  And we are record low and not by a small margin, definitely a BAD year!

I agree be cause! There are a lot of very good posts that get skipped over when things are happening so fast! I think this one from ArcTickTock was another important one. This reminds me of A-Team when he tried to explain the difference between a damaged air conditioner and a broken one.


Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3085 on: July 18, 2020, 05:59:44 AM »
NSIDC July 16 update
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/07/siberian-downward-slide/
"Through the first half of July 2020, sea ice extent declined by an average of 146,000 square kilometers (56,400 square miles) per day, considerably faster than the 1981 to 2010 average rate of 85,900 square kilometers (33,200 square miles) per day."

"Air temperatures at the 925 mb level (about 2,500 feet above sea level), as averaged over the first half of July, were unusually high over the central Arctic Ocean—up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit)"

« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 07:07:26 AM by Glen Koehler »

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3086 on: July 18, 2020, 06:06:54 AM »
... that heat blast into the ESS has toned up a bit more...

Latest has warm Asian air almost reaching Greenland via the Noth Pole. :o (850hPa)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/07/21/0000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-246.75,83.14,919/loc=-80.755,85.357

At the surface, 20-30km/hr, long fetch, driving straight into the Laptev bite with SST already 1C at 80 N. Ever seen bees wax melt?
It seems that we are going to have a spike of Greenland ice melt for a couple of days.
It is going to be interesting to follow Greenland charts.
Thanks for the information. Great post also.  :)
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 06:30:52 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3087 on: July 18, 2020, 06:11:27 AM »
<snippage>
The GFS 06Z is way waty worst for sea ice than the 00Z, and one reason is probably due to stronger thunderstorms and higher max rain rate forecasted in the 96H - 120H range in the front of the first low. The 00Z is reaching "only" 10 - 15mm in 06 hours -this already qualify as bath crazy for Arctic...-, the 06Z is reaching more than 30 (30 !!!) mm in 06h under the strongest cells. Don't ask why the 06Z is total mayhem for sea ice....
I'll second that astonishment.  30mm of rainfall over the ice at this time of year cannot help but be devastating.  The direct transfer by itself will cause 2-3cm of top melt almost instantly.  The heat released by the vapor precipitating quite a bit more than that.

Weather is still going at the ice hammer and tongs.
This space for Rent.

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3088 on: July 18, 2020, 06:29:53 AM »
<snip>  Many of the great weather forecasters here on ASIF have already mentioned this, but a head Met at an agency in the UK seems to agree.
    James Peacock is a great meteorologist who follows sea ice closely. He watches the ASIF, and might even have an account here.
    Today he posted what might be some scary news for the ice if it comes true. His model runs support what others have said that we might see a strong low over the Beaufort in about a week. Since the Beaufort is the last remaining hold out for the ice, that will be bad if it happens. It will churn up warm water and cause mechanical breakup of existing floes.
   Peacock - "...like putting the sea ice into a washing machine...'
     ... and set to warm rinse cycle.

GFS has pressure going down to 984 not a cataclysmic 965, and the storm lasting about two days, but still bad news for the ice...
 
GFS surface temp forecast for July 24



GFS cumulative precip forecast for July 17-24

« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 07:15:34 AM by Glen Koehler »

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3089 on: July 18, 2020, 06:42:51 AM »
Expanding on my earlier comment about this being a very bad year already for Arctic sea ice, much ado is made every year about the minimum every year as we draw ever nearer to a BOE.  However, we are arguably actually in the time of year ( if a little past the peak ) now when low sea ice does the most damage and contributes most to global warming.  And we are record low and not by a small margin, definitely a BAD year!

I agree be cause! There are a lot of very good posts that get skipped over when things are happening so fast! I think this one from ArcTickTock was another important one. This reminds me of A-Team when he tried to explain the difference between a damaged air conditioner and a broken one.

Appreciate the notice Rod.  Just thought it was important to step back for a moment and focus on why any of this matters!

MrGreeny

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3090 on: July 18, 2020, 06:49:11 AM »
I have a strong feeling extent will enter the 5mil territory this month if extent keeps dropping like this, to think we went from 14mil down to 6.68mil in this amount of time is truly insane. If 2020's maximum was lower we would've smashed the record long ago.

EDIT: I mean, just take a second to think. If maximum was lower and this happened the ice right now would be like the ice cubes in your drink from McDonalds melting out.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 06:54:34 AM by MrGreeny »
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3091 on: July 18, 2020, 06:51:24 AM »
Wow, another 145k loss, and Bremen shows the Russian side is a complete disaster.

For those arguing compaction as the main driver of these losses, one wonders how much more compact the ice can get...
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 07:18:05 AM by wdmn »

Jontenoy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3092 on: July 18, 2020, 09:43:21 AM »
It is also noteworthy that open ocean in July results in  a lot more energy absorption to the system than the same open ocean in August for a given ratio of sun / cloud. Therefore , this extra energy should manifest itself to a new minimum for September.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3093 on: July 18, 2020, 10:00:23 AM »
Wow, 00z EC depicts a burning Atlantic side in the later part of the modell run. Should seriously damage the remaining thick ice in that area.
The Pacific side OTOH should cool down significantly if the forecast holds. But that won't be much of benefit for the ice there as most of it already has suffered strong damage. EC ensemble confirms this idea.

On the good side, EC doesn't have a bombcyclone in this run. But that should be the only positive with this run.

Btw, thank you for your answers wrt July bombcyclones.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3094 on: July 18, 2020, 10:21:20 AM »
Interesting forecast from the meereisportal sea ice ticker

Quote
Figure 1: Validation sequence for the forecasting system for the years 2018 and 2019 (left and middle column) and the forecast for September 2020. Forecast of the likelihood (top) and the ensemble mean likelihood (bottom) of encountering an ice concentration of 80 % or greater. The actual observed isoline (OSI SAF) indicating a concentration of 80 % is marked in magenta for 2018 and 2019.
edit: I should have added this
Quote
While the forecasts of the sea-ice extent in September (15 % ice concentration) are based on lessons learned in connection with the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) over the last decade, the forecasts regarding 80 % ice concentration and 1 m ice thickness are experimental and should be used with caution. Nonetheless, these two parameters provide important information for the continuation of the MOSAiC expedition at the chosen floe, because they ensure the ice is sufficiently thick for the research teams and the planned investigations and observations.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2020, 12:47:52 PM by uniquorn »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3095 on: July 18, 2020, 12:31:33 PM »
Love what FRIZ contributes here. But November melt is a concept I'm taking a hard PASS on.
Geez, you're not a very pleasant fella now are you? It's FRIV, not FRIZ. Please don't misspell him, we love the guy and it hurts our feelings when you do!  :'(

As for taking a hard pass on, perhaps it'll be interesting for you to read this piece piblished in 2016, and in particular those words in it, quote:

"Both the Arctic and Antarctic experienced record lows in sea ice extent in November, with scientists astonished to see Arctic ice actually retreating at a time when the region enters the cold darkness of winter".

I dare think it is clear that "arctic ice retreating at the time" means melt and nothing else. Have you anything to object, or will you agree you were wrong and apologize for posting factually incorrect information? Your reaction - or lack of - to this post will tell us much who you are and how to react to any of your future contributions, so i thank you in advance for it.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

pccp82

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3096 on: July 18, 2020, 01:48:46 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1284350565825175555

Quote
This is quite astounding... Today's #Arctic sea ice extent is almost 500,000 km² *lower* than the previous record low for the date [using JAXA data]



i was just looking over at the numbers thread...and the difference between 2020 and 2nd place is about the same delta as 2nd place from 9th place.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3097 on: July 18, 2020, 01:52:34 PM »
The ensemble probability maps (animated below for 120 to 192 hours out) are now showing a high risk of strong winds (>50km/h) around the Arctic from 5 days out. These kinds of maps can be more informative than looking at individual model runs when assessing the probability of storms and such.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Aporia_filia

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3098 on: July 18, 2020, 02:28:04 PM »
This could be posted in several threads, but this one is where weather forecasts are used most frequently.

Weather forecasts have become less accurate during the COVID-19 pandemic due to the reduction in commercial flights, according to new research.

"A new study in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters finds the world lost 50-75% of its aircraft weather observations between March and May of this year, when many flights were grounded due to the pandemic.

Aircraft typically inform weather forecasts by recording information about air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure and wind along their flight path. With significantly fewer planes in the sky this spring, forecasts of these meteorological conditions have become less accurate and the impact is more pronounced as forecasts extend further out in time, according to the study, which is part of an ongoing special collection of research in AGU journals related to the current pandemic."...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200717101026.htm

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #3099 on: July 18, 2020, 02:36:35 PM »
That wasn't a typo. It's a racial slur and was done on purpose.
It's important to give benefit of the doubt to people we like, but twice so to people we don't, IMHO. Otherwise it's escalation of hostilities...
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!