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Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 571773 times)

igs

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4850 on: August 13, 2020, 10:57:29 PM »
Another quite telling image  :)

CLICK for full size !
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 11:04:03 PM by igs »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4851 on: August 13, 2020, 11:02:32 PM »
Strong persistent non-cyclonic winds off Siberia brought a most unusual TransPolar Drift in late winter, causing havoc for the Polarstern, putting it months ahead of schedule and prematurely flushing it down the Fram.
That was the best post I've ever read on this forum. I'm sure I will have to read it a few times more to get everything out of it, but this taught me so much. Thank you! Now I know why you're the A-team. :)

I have one thing though that I would dare to argue with, and that is this.

Quote
Strong persistent non-cyclonic winds off Siberia brought a most unusual TransPolar Drift in late winter, causing havoc for the Polarstern, putting it months ahead of schedule and prematurely flushing it down the Fram.
I'm quite sure it was a strong and persistent west to east wind along the CAA and Greenland coast that caused that extreem export out of fram. So that must have been a cyclone. And it was this export that drew in ice from the CAB, laptev, and the ESS. I think it was unicorn who posted an excellent video about that transport, and I'm sure you can go back on Nullschool to check if I'm right about the weather.

But again, I wouldn't dare to argue with you... Hope I got this right...  :-\
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4852 on: August 13, 2020, 11:07:02 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 12th,  3,216,550 million km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of  136,263 km^2

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 01:51:40 PM by glennbuck »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4853 on: August 13, 2020, 11:09:39 PM »
Today's wind, temp and ice animation. Freegrass, I will get the instructions up in the developer area soon, promise!
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4854 on: August 14, 2020, 12:01:24 AM »
Today's wind, temp and ice animation. Freegrass, I will get the instructions up in the developer area soon, promise!
No hurry. You're doing a great job! :)
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4855 on: August 14, 2020, 12:20:29 AM »
While I certainly don't put much weight into the products/visualizations windy.com has to offer, I do find them a useful general reference to get a broader picture of what's going on.

With that said, what I DO find interesting af is how much open water is appearing north of Greenland at this point. I know we have all seen it on worldview, but it's wild seeing open water/waves appear here.

Additionally, the wind has been whipping thru that area, facilitating more open water. In conjunction, it's a somewhat warm wind (which I think is why it is melting so quickly). This whole region just boggles the mind and ALSO the ice in the Fram Strait has been dealing with some intense conditions for the last few days.
pls!

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4856 on: August 14, 2020, 12:51:25 AM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 12th,  3,216,550 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of  136,263 km^2

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960
Looking at this chart, a record this year seems unlikely but possible, and a runner-up seems probable.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4857 on: August 14, 2020, 01:21:02 AM »
FWIW, while it is interesting to follow arctic sea ice extent down to the Sep min it sometimes leads us to lose sight of what is important to the earth system.  What mattered this year was that the ice was low when the sun was high.  The damage has already been done this year regardless of the final number.

Also think too much is made of the extent slowdown numerically as being mysterious when clearly the ice has been deteriorating badly all through the slow down.  This would probably be clear if volume numbers were real time and precise.

I have a question, are the NSIDC extent numbers computed the same way as the displayed extent that is presented in map form each day?  Because if so then NSIDC computational particulars is overstating actual extent.  There is phantom ice extent all over the place on the NSIDC map that just isn’t real when you poke around on satellite.  This is definitely true in the Chukchi where ice is about to disappear magically from NSIDC which in actuality has been breaking up from within ever since the storm.

And looking at the NSIDC map for extent for the CAA today you would think that Wellington Channel, Rae Strait, Jones Sound, Peel Sound are all choked with ice when in fact, they are not hovering around 15%, they are all essentially ice free and have been for some time.  Not sure you could make a decent glass of ice tea from Rae or Wellington right now!

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4858 on: August 14, 2020, 01:25:14 AM »
To amplify my thoughts here, consider this image from the Mosaic thread.  This is Polarstern at the end of June in what would certainly show up as 100% concentration.

It would certainly not show up as 100% concentration. <SNIP>

Not sure if or not you are actually making my argument for me or just quibbling over a detail.

I presume you are looking at DMI?

Am I correct in thinking that's using smoothed data that is 25x25km2?

https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0508/versions/1



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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4859 on: August 14, 2020, 01:29:23 AM »
FWIW, while it is interesting to follow arctic sea ice extent down to the Sep min it sometimes leads us to lose sight of what is important to the earth system.  What mattered this year was that the ice was low when the sun was high.  The damage has already been done this year regardless of the final number.

Also think too much is made of the extent slowdown numerically as being mysterious when clearly the ice has been deteriorating badly all through the slow down.  This would probably be clear if volume numbers were real time and precise.

I have a question, are the NSIDC extent numbers computed the same way as the displayed extent that is presented in map form each day?  Because if so then NSIDC computational particulars is overstating actual extent.  There is phantom ice extent all over the place on the NSIDC map that just isn’t real when you poke around on satellite.  This is definitely true in the Chukchi where ice is about to disappear magically from NSIDC which in actuality has been breaking up from within ever since the storm.

And looking at the NSIDC map for extent for the CAA today you would think that Wellington Channel, Rae Strait, Jones Sound, Peel Sound are all choked with ice when in fact, they are not hovering around 15%, they are all essentially ice free and have been for some time.  Not sure you could make a decent glass of ice tea from Rae or Wellington right now!

I think the NSIDC has stated any false coastal ice has very minimal impact on the extent numbers. Besides its the same every year and its not unique to this year. It is a little frustrating such a leading organisation can't have more accurate higher resolution measurements.

Back to the here and now and the 12Z runs have ramped up the threat of a Beaufort high again in the medium term and with that comes a dipole. With the Greenland high signal looking very strong, I think a dipole is quite likely. What impacts that will have on the Beaufort ice will be interesting to see.

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4860 on: August 14, 2020, 01:59:18 AM »

And looking at the NSIDC map for extent for the CAA today you would think that Wellington Channel, Rae Strait, Jones Sound, Peel Sound are all choked with ice when in fact, they are not hovering around 15%, they are all essentially ice free and have been for some time.  Not sure you could make a decent glass of ice tea from Rae or Wellington right now!

It is a lot of ice in the CAA.

The channels and straits of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, which can be up to 160 km wide, account for almost another third of total Arctic landfast extent (540,000 km2) (Yu et al., 2013).


Davidsf

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4861 on: August 14, 2020, 04:00:18 AM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/renowned-climate-scientist-konrad-steffen-132226331.html

RIP Konrad Steffen, who died doing research in Greenland.

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4862 on: August 14, 2020, 04:46:21 AM »
Absolute tragedy. Konrad Steffen - a great soul. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/13/konrad-steffen-death-climate-change-scientist-dies-greenland/3362486001/  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :-\ :-\ :-\ :-\ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[

Ground caved in while installing meteorological weather station due to subsurface melt cavity in Greenland. Working on melting Greenland ice sheet is becoming increasingly dangerous and unpredictable. The whole Greenland ice sheet is becoming Swiss cheese with water pockets hidden under its treacherous unstable surface. (Wait and you will start seeing it collapse major ways as each year more of these pockets form as it turns increasingly slushy ice.) Crevasse water heat will not escape even in winter but builds up temperature in deep ice accumulating each year more water in Greenland's ice - making it ever more fragile labyrinth of ice caves filled with summertime melt water.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 05:29:47 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »
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ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4863 on: August 14, 2020, 05:03:19 AM »

I think the NSIDC has stated any false coastal ice has very minimal impact on the extent numbers. Besides its the same every year and its not unique to this year. It is a little frustrating such a leading organisation can't have more accurate higher resolution measurements.


Yes, it is definitely the same every year, thats my point!  But it is not just a coastal ice effect, it is the NSIDC cannot see an open ocean polynya till it is gargantuan effect as well and that is not so easily dismissed.

But the part that bothers me most about the coastal effect is when it switches on and off.  The ice is there then it is gone then suddenly back again!  May not make a huge difference in the final analysis but suspect can significantly distort the day on day trend analysis.

I get that if you want to compare change year after year you need to use equivalent metrics, but nothing stops you from running a high res product alongside the old one.

ArcTickTock

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4864 on: August 14, 2020, 05:26:42 AM »
Looks like we have a Beaufort donut!  Don’t recall having seen it do quite like this before.  Does this look familiar to anyone else?

I keep hearing how the Beaufort will hold out this year, if it does it will be by the skin of its teeth because melting momentum ran out just in time.  That sea ain’t looking very healthy right now!

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4865 on: August 14, 2020, 06:17:40 AM »
Looks like we have a Beaufort donut!  Don’t recall having seen it do quite like this before.  Does this look familiar to anyone else?

I keep hearing how the Beaufort will hold out this year, if it does it will be by the skin of its teeth because melting momentum ran out just in time.  That sea ain’t looking very healthy right now!

More like a real Swiss cheese...
From my point of view, only 2012 was similar, but not completely. 2012 was cut in half.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4866 on: August 14, 2020, 06:24:58 AM »
I remember a few years ago - 2013? 14? 15?  When we were amazed and concerned about just a few small patches of red in the Greenland Sea, Barents and Bering.

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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4867 on: August 14, 2020, 06:32:35 AM »
Don’t recall having seen it do quite like this before.  Does this look familiar to anyone else?

We can say that some years look a little alike, like 2015.

Neven: a favor... 2019 is missing on your concentration maps.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0813

Agree, IILWAR, the U. Bremen AMSR2 map is looking very ratty for the date. The region north of Greenland is freaking me out a bit!

If I may be so bold as to ask a favour, could someone with the ability please update the excellent "Sea Ice Concentration maps" page to include 2019.

It's a favourite page of mine for comparisons. Next day for comparisons is in 2 days time:
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0813
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4868 on: August 14, 2020, 08:08:56 AM »
August 9-13.

2019.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4869 on: August 14, 2020, 08:26:32 AM »
Another one bites the dust! The ice shelf in Constable Bay and Bliss Bay on the North-East shore of Greenland has broken loose, and Coffee Club Island is now in open water. For the first time ever?

The gif shows the August 11th - 13th. Note that there seems to be a dust storm giving a strong brown colour to the clouds on the 12th.

The image shows place names, based on the map found by Tor Bejnar in this post. I don't know if the ice shelf itself has a name or if this is the first time in modern history that it breaks loose.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4870 on: August 14, 2020, 08:40:03 AM »
To amplify my thoughts here, consider this image from the Mosaic thread.  This is Polarstern at the end of June in what would certainly show up as 100% concentration.

It would certainly not show up as 100% concentration. <SNIP>

Not sure if or not you are actually making my argument for me or just quibbling over a detail.

I presume you are looking at DMI?

Am I correct in thinking that's using smoothed data that is 25x25km2?

https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0508/versions/1

How is refuting the entire statement in your post making your argument for you, or quibbling over a detail? I used NSIDC concentration data, I am not sure what the exact resolution it is but the point is that it doesn't matter, because like I said regardless of resolution the ice in your image would not show up as 100% concentration. You asked "How much melt is missed because it's below resolution?" The answer is that practically no melt has been missed because it's below resolution, on area data.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 08:46:22 AM by grixm »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4871 on: August 14, 2020, 09:31:48 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4872 on: August 14, 2020, 10:01:07 AM »
Here's a few items.
The first is already up on twitter, showing the change on the N. coast of Greenland so far this month..
The second is the change in the Beaufort/Chukchi region so far this month (a higher res version will be going up on twitter later this afternoon)
Then there's the ice loss over the previous 5 days

The gifs are quite big, so caution and click to play!

EDIT: Removed the second gif as it was autoplaying for some reason (don't want to kill anyone's data allowance). Any suggestions?
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4873 on: August 14, 2020, 11:06:27 AM »
To amplify my thoughts here, consider this image from the Mosaic thread.  This is Polarstern at the end of June in what would certainly show up as 100% concentration.

It would certainly not show up as 100% concentration. <SNIP>

Not sure if or not you are actually making my argument for me or just quibbling over a detail.

How is refuting the entire statement in your post making your argument for you, or quibbling over a detail?

OK, quibbling over a detail.

You missed my point.

You want to argue it further, take it to email please.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4874 on: August 14, 2020, 01:06:12 PM »
More and more holes. And there is still a month of melting ahead ...
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 01:23:53 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4875 on: August 14, 2020, 01:45:13 PM »
EDIT: Removed the second gif as it was autoplaying for some reason (don't want to kill anyone's data allowance). Any suggestions?

I know the rule used to be it needed to be over 700 pixels wide or it would autoplay.  I had always made mine 701.

Your other one is less than 700 but not playing, not sure why though.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4876 on: August 14, 2020, 01:58:55 PM »
700 pixels

That has changed to 500 px now. Meaning must be 501 px or bigger.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4877 on: August 14, 2020, 02:06:06 PM »

I know the rule used to be it needed to be over 700 pixels wide or it would autoplay.  I had always made mine 701.

Your other one is less than 700 but not playing, not sure why though.


That has changed to 500 px now. Meaning must be 501 px or bigger.

Thanks both. Added it below. 501 pixels wide now!
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marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4878 on: August 14, 2020, 02:16:16 PM »

If we have vast areas where the ice has shattered into far smaller pieces - generally less than 0.5km2 - I could see where large stretches of ice could have significant melting that wouldn't turn up in our metrics.

For example, in my included bit of detail below:  This is at the CAB/Laptev margin.  Considering the quality of the ice, how much melting is being hidden there in what is basically a sea covered in ice cubes?

This sea of ice cubes is something I’ve been thinking about. That there will be / has been a general slow down on year over year extent losses, because a sea of ice cubes looks about the same as a sea of thick floes. By extent measures it looks like the central ice is hanging on, but in reality, it’s getting ready to go poof at some point soon. So basically we’re in a new regime of the central ice being a sea of slush/ice cubes by August, but the ice cubes won’t melt out completely because the sun goes too low to do this. it will However be at the mercy of any large sustained August storms, should they happen.

Fortunately I don’t think the central sea of ice cubes will go poof until the slot machine elements of preconditioning, sunny solstice, and large August storms all line up. Or until the Arctic warms up another  degree or 2 so that the central ice melts out by ~august 10 Because of air temperatures and before the sun goes too low.

Also fortunately the latest forecast posted by @freegrass seems to show light winds and no storms, so the central ice might be spared at least for another week.


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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4879 on: August 14, 2020, 02:30:11 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 13th,  3,105,480 million km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of  111,070 km^2.

Last 5 years average area remaining loss from Aug 13th to September Minimum is around 900,000 km^2.


lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 01:51:58 PM by glennbuck »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4880 on: August 14, 2020, 02:43:01 PM »
New record?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4881 on: August 14, 2020, 03:48:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

RIP Greenland sea ice!
And what are all those big and little storms doing to the methane at the bottom of a warm and ice free ESS?  :-\
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glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4882 on: August 14, 2020, 04:27:29 PM »
DMI 80° North, 2 m Temperature rise last few days from 0.5 C to 0.8 C.

Milwen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4883 on: August 14, 2020, 04:38:54 PM »
Todays HYCOM prediction 7 days later. Where the hell is that pack going? Is it possible that at the end of the melt season entire pack of thick ice will end up in Beaufort Sea?  :o

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4884 on: August 14, 2020, 05:07:12 PM »
Todays HYCOM prediction 7 days later. Where the hell is that pack going? Is it possible that at the end of the melt season entire pack of thick ice will end up in Beaufort Sea?  :o
If this GFS very long term completely unreliable forecast is right, then a new GAAC would surely spin that remaining MYI towards the Pacific.

But won't it end up there anyway during winter? And so will we start the next melting season without MYI along the CAA?
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Milwen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4885 on: August 14, 2020, 05:26:24 PM »
Todays HYCOM prediction 7 days later. Where the hell is that pack going? Is it possible that at the end of the melt season entire pack of thick ice will end up in Beaufort Sea?  :o
If this GFS very long term completely unreliable forecast is right, then a new GAAC would surely spin that remaining MYI towards the Pacific.

But won't it end up there anyway during winter? And so will we start the next melting season without MYI along the CAA?

Would be interesting scenario next year, when during March/April first ice would broke up around Greenland and CAA.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4886 on: August 14, 2020, 06:21:32 PM »
Todays HYCOM prediction 7 days later. Where the hell is that pack going? Is it possible that at the end of the melt season entire pack of thick ice will end up in Beaufort Sea?  :o
If this GFS very long term completely unreliable forecast is right, then a new GAAC would surely spin that remaining MYI towards the Pacific.

But won't it end up there anyway during winter? And so will we start the next melting season without MYI along the CAA?
That’s a cool scenario, literally. That’d do some compacting but cool off the Arctic.
Probably it won’t happen.
For the time being the EC shows an interesting forecast, with a little bit of dipole, warmth on the Pacific side and plenty of wind

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4887 on: August 14, 2020, 06:27:25 PM »
New record?

Some folks have been wondering about the extent numbers slowdown, and scratching their heads over it. To me, it looked like dispersion was the obvious answer. (via FGs nice gifs & perusing WorldView, etc.)  But I rarely post my thoughts here & would rather leave it to more knowledgeable folk. (I've been lurking since '14 and prefer to be on the sidelines) Anyway, yeah, that chart doesn't surprise me one bit.

Funny how some trot that one out to explain large extent losses as compaction rather than actual melt, then fall silent when the inverse happens.

My hunch is that 2020 will be looked back on as a sort of "ice regime change year", much in the way 2007 is.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4888 on: August 14, 2020, 06:41:27 PM »
New record?

Some folks have been wondering about the extent numbers slowdown, and scratching their heads over it. To me, it looked like dispersion was the obvious answer. (via FGs nice gifs & perusing WorldView, etc.)  But I rarely post my thoughts here & would rather leave it to more knowledgeable folk. (I've been lurking since '14 and prefer to be on the sidelines) Anyway, yeah, that chart doesn't surprise me one bit.

Funny how some trot that one out to explain large extent losses as compaction rather than actual melt, then fall silent when the inverse happens.

My hunch is that 2020 will be looked back on as a sort of "ice regime change year", much in the way 2007 is.
From the NASA age of ice map recently posted here, I would infer a recovery, if anything, of surviving 4+ year old ice. But nothing dramatic to observe an ice regime back to pre 2007, or unknown chart territory of any sort, anyway. A really warm season, that is. The CAB ice, compacted and uniform, will do a nice basis of two year ice and beyond in the coming years.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 06:55:17 PM by gandul »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4889 on: August 14, 2020, 08:18:29 PM »
amsr2-uhh random comparison of 2012/2020 cyclones

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4890 on: August 14, 2020, 08:34:30 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4891 on: August 14, 2020, 09:44:45 PM »
New record?

Some folks have been wondering about the extent numbers slowdown, and scratching their heads over it.
<snip>
From the NASA age of ice map recently posted here, I would infer a recovery, if anything, of surviving 4+ year old ice. But nothing dramatic to observe an ice regime back to pre 2007, or unknown chart territory of any sort, anyway. A really warm season, that is. The CAB ice, compacted and uniform, will do a nice basis of two year ice and beyond in the coming years.
gandul, your choice of supporting evidence for this assertion looks perilously close to being cherry picked.

Compared to other data sources, it also looks counter-factual.

Consider:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/20200813_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png

And:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif

(note: - the HYCOM link is transient, and in the future, to reference the specific date you'd need to go through their archive)

Any talk of recovery sounds to me like whistling in the dark.  You need to marshal a lot more concrete evidence.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4892 on: August 14, 2020, 09:53:12 PM »
I can't recall *ever* seeing the ice in the Lincoln Sea look this bad.

That should be either solid extent or, large flows, 3+m2 thick.

It obviously isn't, in this image.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4893 on: August 14, 2020, 10:11:27 PM »
I decided to go back and run through the history of this particular area over the last month and a half.

I have two GIF's, part 1 & 2, which I think show what can be described as catastrophic failure of the pack in the Lincoln Sea and adjacent regions.

First file is 4MB, 2nd about 2.8. 

The first June 21st through July 25, visible.

The second is July 25th through August 14, visible.

I haven't tried to remove clouds, so some frames will be obscured, but I think it still captures what is going on.
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Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4894 on: August 14, 2020, 10:33:47 PM »
...
I have two GIF's, ...

First file is 4MB, 2nd about 2.8. 
...

Make your gifs greater than 500 pixels across so they don't autoplay :/, those are some big ones and this just was discussed

A-Team

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4895 on: August 14, 2020, 11:32:20 PM »
Quote
Oren: NSIDC has much coarser resolution much more affected by wet ice surface and melt ponds, so during the melting season NSIDC extent > UH extent > UH area > NSIDC area… events prove again volume and area matter more than extent, which is simply the rearrangement of ice.  thin wispy ice is worth much less than extent would have us believe. Extent really matters only in Sept
Very much worth repeating. Stalled melt? Maybe in a parallel extent universe. Better resolution AMSR2 data shows August continuing to see significant new daily open water forming (primarily ice periphery melting to oblivion); the de-clouded image below shows growth in open water over the last four days (pink, click for 6.2 km scale).

The once-in-a-lifetime story playing out in the pack interior is consistently weakening ice concentration from the Lincoln Sea to the Pole, with unprecedented additional involvement for the date on the Atlantic side.

WorldView has some recent clear views (https://go.nasa.gov/3iF1P27, https://go.nasa.gov/3anMyzU) that confirm and add detail but don't provide an explanation for this puzzling development nor indicate where it is headed over coming weeks.

Insolation is still going strong at the key 75º latitude contrary to intuited rubbish above: week 9 (Aug 12-19) has 52% of the incoming solar at the solstice (June 17-24) according to the graphical albedo calculator. (Clouds and lower incident angle scattering will affect actual energy deposition.)

An overview is perhaps best given by the simplified ice concentration (light blue) in OsiSaf ice motion. The brief animation butts together 1200Z timestamps on alternate days (the product spans 48 hours but is posted daily in temporal overlaps).

The new AMSR2 in the works from AWI also benefits from a simplified block palette. Some central weather issues affect parts of the date shown but disintegrating regions on the Pacific side are well-resolved.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 12:21:16 AM by A-Team »

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4896 on: August 14, 2020, 11:39:18 PM »
There really are no words for how amazed I am to see the complete destruction of ice above northern Greenland. I know it's not a single thing per-se, rather a 'why not all of the above' situations regarding why the Lincoln Sea is breaking down. But given there is roughly a month left, I suspect the surprises will just keep coming.

The entire Atlantic side is also taking a huge beating with bottom melt, surface melt, wind+waves. I really wonder what the currents are doing...
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4897 on: August 15, 2020, 12:18:28 AM »
Lincoln sea this year (Aug 11) vs 2004 (Aug 9)
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4898 on: August 15, 2020, 12:19:22 AM »
A-Team was correct about the strong drift and the wind field that affected the science mission. However, there were strong cyclonic wind anomalies in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas that kept thick ice in the Beaufort sea this spring. The present melt pattern was set up by the winter weather which caused ice to be very thin in the Siberian seas this spring and quite thick in the Beaufort sea.

With the changing weather pattern - strong winds from the Laptev and Kara seas blowing towards the Greenland sea, the unusual openings and holes north of Greenland seem likely to close up while the Laptev bite grows.

And quite an impressive storm is headed from my shores to the shores of the U.K. Tropical storm Kyle will merge with vorticity spinning down from west of Greenland, creating an unseasonable hurricane force summer storm west of the British Isles.There's going to be a massive cold blast down the coast of Greenland to the Isles after the storm passes. That means we are going to see an unusual amount of ice pushed through the Fram strait for this time of year. Jim's gonna be freezing going for those 20 second period waves at Nazarre on his rhino chaser. It looks like energy now associated with Kyle will whip it's way into the deep low that is forecast for the Kara sea. (Unless butterflies start their migration south, wrecking the forecast.)
Click bottom image to animate.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 12:34:26 AM by FishOutofWater »

glennbuck

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #4899 on: August 15, 2020, 12:30:04 AM »
Central Arctic Basin Area around 2,550,000 km^2.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2020, 12:59:34 AM by glennbuck »