The 2020 melting season

[Frivolousz21]

Unless some huge technology advancements come along we will burn every reachable energy carbon we can.


If u wish to hope for something.

Hope and pray the release of truly monumental levels of methane from clathrates, permafrost, and permakarst isn't really likely.

Has there been any reports of major methane release in the Kara or Laptev.

The Laptev has 6-9C SSTs over the area that is 8-20M depth...

The Kara has 8-13C SSTs over the same depth.


In 2011 that Russian methane guru and his wife toured the Laptev in early September.

They remarked at how wild it was that the surface was 3-4C but the sea bed at the 15M depths was also 2-3C water.

And that region had the largest methane bubbles they had ever seen in the Laptev up to that point
..
This year truly nutty SSTS  have been in the laptev, Kara, barents, and Hudson Bay.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
Large GiFS!

It looks like I'll be seeing the Garlic press in full action for the first time ever...
And was it last season that we broke the record for closest lighting strike near the pole?

[aslan]

It is not useful to look at exact number for weather forecast. This is why there is the feeling of coin flipping. That the models go back and forth for exact min pressure at the nearest hPa or max surface wind at the nearest km/h is normal and should not be confusing the forecast. Models are still a bit unsure about the deepening of the low, but in any way and in any case, a wave in the frontal boundary from the complex low linked to ex Kyle, now storm Ellen, is going to deepen. The details of the exact minimum pressure and of which exact wave in the front and of the exact km/h of the max wind and so on are not really relevant. We can be 100% that a low is going to deepen from a wave in this complex, and that it is going to be a wild ride for the Atlantic side. And the ranges of some physical parameters are not going to evolve in the coming days. Precipitable water is forecasted to reached 25 - 30 millimeters in the warm air advection and this is not going to change, strong winds of 30 - 35 kts are also a sure thing, I am ready to bet on thunderstorms northward of the 80°N also, etc... That the low go to the 970s or stall in the bottom of the 980s hPa or that lightning strike will be here or there is asking too much, and is not really the biggest question. The difference between a 980 hPa low with 34 kts of wind and 29 mm / 24 h of rain at max, which develops from this wave, or a 975 hPa low with 36 kt of wind and 31 mm /24 h at max which develops from that wave, is not significant. Weather forecasting is not reading model outputs and going back and forth with them. This is going to be a significant event for the Atlantic side, with the injection of tropical moisture from Kyle, and with implications for planetary rossby waves train, no matter the exact unit of this or that parameter.

[Jim Hunt]

Be safe be cause! The weather people I follow on Twitter are saying it is going to be pretty rough for you for the next few hours.

It has been pretty (r/t)ough, particularly in the south of Ireland. At the risk of drifting off topic, via my "professional" alter ego:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1296341500801028096

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projection
None produce a minimum below 2012. The average melt rate would place 2020 at 2nd lowest, while the slowest melt would result in 5th lowest. 16/20 produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record.

[SimonF92]

Wonder how long this 'flat line' will go on for. Because the 10-day air surface temps aren't showing much cold (10-day image not posted because it's a 10-day forecast, which are generally disliked)

[Burnrate]

Wonder how long this 'flat line' will go on for. Because the 10-day air surface temps aren't showing much cold (10-day image not posted because it's a 10-day forecast, which are generally disliked)

That will be interesting, it usually locks down so close the average once above the blue line.  In several years past it has always tended to hold above the green mean but only after it passes below the blue 0°C line.

That chart is one of my favorites.  I know a lot of people poo poo it but as long as you know how it is made I think it is meaningful.  The reason I like it is because when it starts to go off the rails during the summer you know everything has gone to crap.

[johnm33]

snip

my original point was that the tides/currents had broken up the fast ice on the shelves and was continuing to do so, there may have been dozens of comments on the wind and wind action none of which i found any argument with, that it was all wind action hmmm, well i recall numerous occasions when fierce winds have blown down from the heights of Greenland and simply passed over fast ice until they gained purchase on something free to move, a nuance.
    Further out there are two returning currents one from more or less the direction of Wrangel and a more powerful one from the direction of the NSI, both bound for Fram [though they may not succeed] these shed rotational energy as they approach the pole but once past it have a deficit which itself generates turbulence when as a pair they move south. I suspect that part returning from the NSI direction is the densest part of the current of incoming Atl. waters, since if not why wouldn't it continue along the shelfs slope?, and thus is affected by Lomonosov but in turn is forcing waters once still in those deeps into motion.

[igs]

Some pretty incredible news from the North Pole today!

Below, is a photograph taken from the Polarstern at 12:45 pm on August 19, 2020 as the ship reached the North Pole. There are lots of melt ponds, and the ice that is left looks very thin.

”Based on the satellite imagery, at first we weren’t sure whether the loose ice cover was due to wind and currents, and were concerned that, if it was, a change in weather conditions could compact it again. Then we would have been caught in a mousetrap, and could have become trapped in the ice,” reports the MOSAiC Expedition Leader, who had previously reached the North Pole on board a research aircraft, in 2000. Once in the region, however, they found that much of the sea ice truly had melted away, and hadn’t simply been broken up by the wind.

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/mosaic-expedition-reaches-the-north-pole.html

CRYOSAT AND ICESAT ARE GOING TO BE SHOCKING THIS EARLY OCTOBER

Latest tomorrow a few guys and pals here have to read back a few weeks and re-consider their approach/attitude for the years to come, just one more drop like this while I think there will be many ( a few ) more to come.

Yeah FRIV you and a few others have seen it coming and this time it was not speculative but obvious.

[igs]

Looking at Piomas around 70% of remaining ice is 0.5m-1.5m Thickness.

Not being super critical of PIOMAS as they do a valuable service, but seriously, their 8/15 map is showing a lot of ice where we know there was zero thickness.  Some bits of even the thicker ice are zero.

Beside the fact that you are right, this topic is coming up almost every month.

As i wrote elsewhere, algorythms and analysis based on statistics will fail big time this season because too many parameters are off the charts by now and therefore cannot be computed properly. It's time for the human brain to take full command. Hard times for digit-worshipers lay ahead IMO. ( Not meant disrespectful, just a term that was common where i come from)

[igs]

Well Friv, 3rd was always, and still is a much better chance than getting down to 2-2.5m.

NO, as I said, 1 more like this and we are close to second even in the best year for the ice and then conditions are as far away from that could happen as it can get for now.

So it's a simple NO without having to get out on a limb.

<Removed personal stuff. O>

[igs]

HOLY SHIT THE 12Z EURO IS AMAZING.
<snip>

I've been watching for the last several days to see how it was going to evolve.  It appears to be getting more definite.

Both models have had that low rattling around the Barents for all of their recent runs.  It's only just the most recent that have pushed the pressure below 980.

Rain and wind over the Atlantic side, which among other things may tend to compact things and ship them in the direction of the Fram.

Yeah, 2nd lowest is pretty certain if it hits, and it means there is still a chance at lowest.

I would not be surprised to see one of those late storms taking us by surprise due to the amount of open warmer than ever. Waters with the appropriate energy stored in it.

Chances under normal circumstandes hint at second place as they did for most of season but

With the thin and mostly rotten ice and a perhapse extra late extraordinary storm this could get even worse than some of us saw it coming.

I never opted for lowest but the 1 or 2 guys who see a chance and base their opinion on knowledge and experience have still a chance to remain correct, all depends motly on the wind front now IMO.

Hopes for third place are very far fetched IMO while a few went out on that limb a few weeks ago and now see their hides float down the rapids.

[Burnrate]

The forecast and the arctic seem confused.  Right now it looks like the low won't be very strong but will put out ~40 km/h winds over a much larger area for a longer period of time.  I imagine that would be worse.

Whatever happens, this weekend will be interesting.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

I agree, Burnrate. I would think that although a strong but small storm could wreak absolute havoc on a localized area, a larger albeit weaker storm could be just enough to stir up the latent energy in the depths of the basin that has been accumulating all season. I don’t think some of those large regions of thin, rotten ice have much left to give, so it likely will only take a small push to get it over the hump. The larger the windfield, the more extensive the effects of course, and I think a little bit can go quite a long way at this point.

[gerontocrat]

I'm not a meteo man, but the attached says to me that by next Monday,

- A low over the North Pole with High pressure to the left and as far as the Central Siberian Shore giving a 40mb gradient,
- Winds & rain dragged over the North Pole environs from a still very warm Western Siberia.

Might not last that long but.....

[oren]

Latest tomorrow a few guys and pals here have to read back a few weeks and re-consider their approach/attitude for the years to come, just one more drop like this while I think there will be many ( a few ) more to come.

All please remember that:
* It is ok to be wrong, it doesn't mean one is a denier or evil or stupid.
* A prediction that failed was not necessarily wrong. Random weather plays a big hand in the Arctic, it could be in retrospect that luck was what decided it.
* The season is not over until it is over, premature celebrations of being right can go wrong later.

Personally I've thought since the crazy July that this season had a good shot at records regardless of later weather, but it doesn't mean I don't respect those who thought otherwise, and I recommend all to do the same. (I don't mean the one or two cherry-pickers, I mean those who post in good faith).

[gandul]

Usually I don’t trust forecasts beyond +120h, but lately the EC is erratic even under.
Top image is yesterdays EC forecast 12z for +120h.
Bottom image is todays 12z forecast for the same moment ahead (+96h).

This may be the difference between extent ending in firm 2nd place, or in turn just somewhere between a 3rd to 5th place, perhaps 2nd.

[UCMiami]

The northern section of Foxe Basin is clear today in WV and clearly shows rapid ice loss over the past week. It is strange that this area consistently retains ice longer than anywhere else in Foxe/Hudson - the water is consistently shallow surrounded with warm land and warm water yet melts out later. The vagaries of sea ice and currents I suppose.

(It is not simply latitude either as the southern Hudson is also typically a hold-out as it has been this year.)

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1658366.072415726,-2277497.2840837343,-629246.072415726,-1711225.2840837343&p=arctic&t=2020-08-20-T01%3A55%3A10Z&z=1&l=MODIS_Combined_Thermal_Anomalies_All(hidden),Graticule,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features,Coastlines(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden)

[oren]

From Wikipedia:

During much of the year, landfast ice dominates in the north, while pack ice prevails towards the south. Foxe Basin itself is rarely ice-free until September, open pack ice being common throughout the summer. Vigorous tidal currents and strong winds keep the ice pack in constant motion and contribute to the numerous polynyas and shore leads which are found throughout the region. This same motion, combined with the high sediment content of the water makes the sea ice of Foxe Basin dark and rough, easily distinguishable from other ice in the Canadian Arctic.

I assume the constant motion of the ice pack makes it thicker than normal FYI during the winter. However, now is the time of year the Foxe Basin ice finally crashes.

Also check out the animation I posted yesterday.

Here is an animation of Foxe Basin from mid-August until final clearout, for 2011-2016 and 2018. 2020 is shown at the end. The ice in Foxe Basin persists a long time but is gone by mid-September.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

[Paul]

Usually I don’t trust forecasts beyond +120h, but lately the EC is erratic even under.
Top image is yesterdays EC forecast 12z for +120h.
Bottom image is todays 12z forecast for the same moment ahead (+96h).

This may be the difference between extent ending in firm 2nd place, or in turn just somewhere between a 3rd to 5th place, perhaps 2nd.

At that range, details will always change but the trend is still similar. Low pressure over Svalbard and high pressure over the basin and strong southerly winds hitting the Atlantic edge. I am thankful the low has downgraded in strength on todays runs but its a fluid situation and it could change on the next run.

One thing I am noticing, there is not alot of cold air forecast and this is probably going to be the trend in the coming weeks. I do think high pressure is better for the ice generally at this time of year but if we keep picking up warmer air at lower latitdues then it won't be. That DMI chart could get really interesting I feel.

[Shared Humanity]

That is the ridiculous all about. Similarly, many scientists are excited to publish their findings on Nature, Science etc. when COVID-19 comes. They may be promoted from that. They spend much time to find the problem, to precisely predict it rather than solve the problem.

Regarding AGW, the scientists have been very clear on how to address the problem. We need to be carbon neutral by 2050.

[jdallen]

Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?

I think you need to keep in mind that for each of us participating - or even just reading - these forums, there are additional side conversations taking place that reach thousands of other people.

"Getting the numbers right" as you say adds credence to the argument many of us are making to influence other people to action.

It is empowering many of us to say to people who while not necessarily doubting, but may rather be dragging their feet, "It is past time to talk; it is in fact past time to act.  You must take action."

Individually the effect is small.  Collectively, we are creating (hopefully) a critical mass of people determined to cause change.

[Tor Bejnar]

...

... and now see their hides float down the rapids.

I'm pessimistic about Arctic sea ice and, thankfully, the 1997 - 2002 - 2007 - 2012 series (graphed curve) hasn't yet turned into a BOE.  My hide, nonetheless, has been 'floating down the rapids' of not-accurate-predictions for a long time. [ref: Tor Bejnar | October 10, 2012 at 00:35]

[gerontocrat]

Long-term forecasts are problematical, but here are
- Canada temperature forecast 24 Aug to 21 Sep
- Russian Forecast for September to November.

They forecast above average temperatures for most of the Arctic.
Trouble is, so far this melting season they've been pretty much spot on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Long-term forecasts are problematical, but here are
- Canada temperature forecast 24 Aug to 21 Sep
- Russian Forecast for September to November.

They forecast above average temperatures for most of the Arctic.
Trouble is, so far this melting season they've been pretty much spot on.

We can be more or less certain of above average temperatures for much of Autumn. The heat absorbed by all the open water will need to be released before sea ice can form, ensuring some highly anomalous temperatures over the next few months.

Given how this may upset the meridional temperature gradient, the effect on the jet stream and mid latitude weather patterns could be interesting.

[oren]

Glennbuck, please discuss possible aerosol effects in the thread opened for that purpose a while back. For now this is just speculation and needs further substantiation before it makes it to the season thread.

[Villabolo]

Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?
When we are all looking at the side effects of the melted Arctic will some people be saying well at least my JAXA prediction was right.

Morbid curiosity pauldry, morbid curiosity.

[glennbuck]

Glennbuck, please discuss possible aerosol effects in the thread opened for that purpose a while back. For now this is just speculation and needs further substantiation before it makes it to the season thread.

Moved to global dimming thread . Arctic Air Temperature rank per month and Arctic air temperature anomaly for Jan-July. Air temperature in March was lowest since 2004, April was 6th highest and May 1st highest on record, June 2nd highest and July 1st highest.

This years record Air temps seem to of happened for peak seasons melt, May, June, July and probably August when that data comes in. Where as 2016 has 6 months of record air temperatures but in Jan, Feb, March and Sep, Oct and Nov. The 2019 season had 2,3,4,1 highest air temps in May, June, July, August. The 2019/2020 season seem to be entering a new Paradigm for the Arctic.

[josh-j]

Glennbuck -

Whether dimming followed by lockdown caused a cold-hot pattern is speculation.

There are lots of other occurances of such a pattern in previous years (of course that doesn't rule the theory out).

But, off topic. Sorry Oren.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Record lowest extent, area, and volume is still on the table.

More ice is going to be lost (vs 2012) in the CAA, Beaufort, and Greenland seas. All other seas are moot at this point (except ESS which still had a little ice to lose in 2012).

If the low inbound on the Atlantic side continues on its predicted course, CAB numbers will get crushed. Good times (for watching ice melt)!

[slow wing]

Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.

Below is the comparison for 19 August.

You can see this is the first year that the traditional ice sanctuary between Greenland and the North Pole has been wrecked. (Although it has been deteriorating over the years -- see the nice post about 2 pages back by UCMiami.)

To really appreciate how wrecked the sanctuary is though, check out A-team's amazing detailed image on the MOSAIC thread.

[peterlvmeng]

Only three days left. The strength is weaker than previous prediction by GFS. But the path is perfect to hit the North pole. The ice is thin and weak around north pole photo by MOSAIC team. It will be a disaster. The MOSAIC should leave now.

[jdallen]

Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
<snip>

I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

[Tigertown]

Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
<snip>

I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.

Without getting too far off topic. Think about it. Even with a virtual tie with 2012 this leaves 2020 a lot worse off, considering how much other permafrost, tundra, glacier ice, Ice sheet, Ice shelf, ect. type ice that has been lost since 2012. All of which served as back up to the world's a/c system.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest daily update below. No big changes, ice loss primarily restricted to the edges of the pack

[glennbuck]

Latest daily update below. No big changes, ice loss primarily restricted to the edges of the pack

That is a lot of edges, 4,484,792 km2, a drop of -74,472 km2.

[jdallen]

Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
<snip>

I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.

Without getting too far off topic. Think about it. Even with a virtual tie with 2012 this leaves 2020 a lot worse off, considering how much other permafrost, tundra, glacier ice, Ice sheet, Ice shelf, ect. type ice that has been lost since 2012. All of which served as back up to the world's a/c system.

You underscore my point.  Thank you.

[SirLurkALot]

..snip ...
Arctic Air Temperature rank per month and Arctic air temperature anomaly for Jan-July. Air temperature in March was lowest since 2004, April was 6th highest and May 1st highest on record, June 2nd highest and July 1st highest.

That 'brisk March' got us out of some trouble this year? Looking at the trend,
won't be as nippy in years to come. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The storm is still in the forecast for Monday. A little weaker, but within the model run to run fluctuations we might expect.

[Général de GuerreLasse]

Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
<snip>

I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.

Without getting too far off topic. Think about it. Even with a virtual tie with 2012 this leaves 2020
a lot worse off, considering how much other permafrost, tundra, glacier ice, Ice sheet, Ice shelf, ect. type ice that has been lost since 2012. All of which served as back up to the world's a/c system.

You underscore my point.  Thank you.

jdallen Tigertown, I think the beige pixels say the same thing as you.

[Freegrass]

Wonder how long this 'flat line' will go on for. Because the 10-day air surface temps aren't showing much cold (10-day image not posted because it's a 10-day forecast, which are generally disliked)

I just went through all the years, and it looks like the record years were 1964 and 1979.

[glennbuck]

Interesting Thickness normally goes up at this time of season it was rising then took a large drop down.

[oren]

AMSR2 thickness on this date is really an expression of meltwater and surface wetness, as the algorithm cannot reliably measure thickness in summer. (BTW its winter performance is also dubious). But putting it in different terms, 2020 is at record melt extent ratio for the date (extent with surface melt divided by total extent).

[Burnrate]

There won't be a GAC to end the season, this year the ice will be destroyed by a WAC (Weak Arctic Cyclone  ).

One thing that does seem to be consistent during the whole time is the warm air being pulled off Siberia and pushed all the way across the pole and a little to the CAA.

[JamesW]

Interesting Thickness normally goes up at this time of season it was rising then took a large drop down.

The reason the average thickness usually goes up this time of year is because the thinner FYI ice is melted out leaving thicker MYI ice and higher thickness averages normally at this time of year across the CAB as we all know.

Obviously then from the chart as new ice appears as the re-freeze takes place then average thickness drops again dramatically.

The current drop in the charts also taking into account the huge extent drops can only be down to an expression of meltwater and surface wetness as Oren kindly pointed out.

[aslan]

The storm is still in the forecast for Monday. A little weaker, but within the model run to run fluctuations we might expect.

Yep. But, not wanting to sound hysterical, but the subttle changes are not good at all. Baroclinical energy is more dilute along the thermal wave. This means that the pressure at North Pole is now forecasted to be a bit higher, but the string of low pressures is still here and there. And so the winds are still forecasted at 25 - 35 kts, and rain (and really, rain, liquid water at ~5°C) amount are still forecasted to reached 20 - 30 mm.
Also, the Arctic low in this wave is forecasted to move a bit more toward the Beaufort sea, with some waves action, which was not the case in the forecast last days. And, mantra of this year, but there is still a lot of easy ice to loss in this corner of the Arctic.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest stats. Down to second lowest on record for the date.
19 of the 20 previous melts seasons would give us the 2nd lowest minimum on record.
2006 is the current straggler.