The 2020 melting season

[Bremer]

Interesting Thickness normally goes up at this time of season it was rising then took a large drop down.

Usually I am read only here. However, this one rises a question. Looking at the avg. thickness, would it be possible to see a stall or even drop in extend/area in early November with increased bottom melt?

[igs]

Latest stats. Down to second lowest on record for the date.
19 of the 20 previous melts seasons would give us the 2nd lowest minimum on record.
2006 is the current straggler.

And since the remaining ice at this stage in 2006 was that much more solid and thicker than this year, only a miracle could make this happen.

Great graph either way, very useful, thanks


 

[Thawing Thunder]

Latest daily update below. No big changes, ice loss primarily restricted to the edges of the pack

Yes. But ... look how fast the strongly decimated Atlantic side is still vanishing! Its edge doesn't have to retreat fast to inspire worries.

[Sepp]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

Well, if this materializes, my wild guess of "Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2" might have been a bit to optimistic... 

[UCMiami]

While any strong winds are worrying for what is very 'preconditioned' remaining pack, I'll be interested to see if sections of the Atlantic front become more dispersed in this storm. That could increase (or slow the decrease) in extent numbers while still being very bad for the remaining ice. The Fram export may be restarted in a major way as this storm heads north. If that happened it might lead to a longer and stronger tail to the melt season as the higher percentage of ice in more southerly waters of both the Fram and Beaufort will continue to melt late into Sept.

[Killian]

Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

7th

2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th

7th. Oops.

then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Now this should be interesting... Seeing 50k, can I get a 60? Going once, going twice...

20th. That's some fairly specific prognostication. Stats are great, but they are not the only thing to consider. Patterns matter.

As for the rest of the season, Friv said "Tomorrow 2020 is going to drop below 2019 on JAXA and it won't be passed up again until after the minimum." So, I looked at some of those stats and 2020 needs to average 19k+ per day to be lower than 2019 on Sept. 17th. 2019 averaged only 11.11k/day in September.

Hmmm....

[RoxTheGeologist]

Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
<snip>

I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.

Without getting too far off topic. Think about it. Even with a virtual tie with 2012 this leaves 2020 a lot worse off, considering how much other permafrost, tundra, glacier ice, Ice sheet, Ice shelf, ect. type ice that has been lost since 2012. All of which served as back up to the world's a/c system.

2012 had the GAC that had the end result of venting a lot of ocean heat, melting ice, and, my guess, is that it lead to the following 'recovery' years of 2013 and 2014. This year is a warm year on-trend. Rather like this year might be the warmest year on record, warmer than the last el-Nino year, 2016, even as we have a mild la-Nina.

[D-Penguin]

Interesting Thickness normally goes up at this time of season it was rising then took a large drop down.

Usually I am read only here. However, this one rises a question. Looking at the avg. thickness, would it be possible to see a stall or even drop in extend/area in early November with increased bottom melt?

A very important observation!
IMHO
The major metrics that are currently referenced during this stage of the 2020 melt season VOLUME. AREA and EXTENT may serve little useful purpose; the exceptions are compaction, weather and observations.

In particular, wrt the posting by Bremer, the presumption that the BOE will be a September minima must be challenged. Indeed, October or even November must now be given serious consideration and should this prove to be the actuality the implications for both summer and winter sea ice will be very significant.

+1 for thinking outside of the box

[El Cid]

Usually I am read only here. However, this one rises a question. Looking at the avg. thickness, would it be possible to see a stall or even drop in extend/area in early November with increased bottom melt?

No. The pattern is that after September, ice in the center starts to thicken (that's why the chart goes up in Sept-Oct). Then after October, new , very thin ice starts to form on the edges. This pulls down average thickness. It's not that ice starts to thin in October, or November. So, first, just as an example, you have 1 m thick ice in the middle, which thickens to 2 m, then a lots of new, say 50 cm ice forms, so average thickness falls to 1,25 m.

You won't get a BOE in November.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

It will be interesting to see how significant the “more in trend” result ends up being with the carryover effects into next season. Without such a massive energy release of the 2012 GAC and with a potentially even warmer set of years in the pipeline once the light La Niña/low ENSO neutral recedes and trends back towards an eventual El Niño, I would expect more compounding upon the 2020 melt season developments through the mid 2020s as opposed to the regression/temporary recovery of the mid 2010s following the 2012 minimum.

I think this is yet another way that a more middling in strength storm this season could be a sleeper nasty scenario if it manages to provide enough of a stir to push plenty of weak, thin ice over the edge, but not consume/vent enough heat energy from the depths to trigger a 2013-esque follow up year. Basin retention of a decent chunk of that insolation energy can’t be good for the future.

[D-Penguin]

20th. That's some fairly specific prognostication. Stats are great, but they are not the only thing to consider. Patterns matter.

With respect, I challenge the idea, at this stage in the 2020 melt season, that stats are great and that patterns matter.

The stats are not representing an accurate picture and patterns only matter up to the point of a paradigm change in a sequence of events. I suggest that 2020 represents that paradigm change.

[D-Penguin]

Usually I am read only here. However, this one rises a question. Looking at the avg. thickness, would it be possible to see a stall or even drop in extend/area in early November with increased bottom melt?

No. The pattern is that after September, ice in the center starts to thicken (that's why the chart goes up in Sept-Oct). Then after October, new , very thin ice starts to form on the edges. This pulls down average thickness. It's not that ice starts to thin in October, or November. So, first, just as an example, you have 1 m thick ice in the middle, which thickens to 2 m, then a lots of new, say 50 cm ice forms, so average thickness falls to 1,25 m.

You won't get a BOE in November.

But what happens if 'the pattern' shifts from September to October or later? Are you implying that  the date of the minima must occur in September and a later date for the minima is impossible?

[D-Penguin]

It will be interesting to see how significant the “more in trend” result ends up being with the carryover effects into next season. Without such a massive energy release of the 2012 GAC and with a potentially even warmer set of years in the pipeline once the light La Niña/low ENSO neutral recedes and trends back towards an eventual El Niño, I would expect more compounding upon the 2020 melt season developments through the mid 2020s as opposed to the regression/temporary recovery of the mid 2010s following the 2012 minimum.

I think this is yet another way that a more middling in strength storm this season could be a sleeper nasty scenario if it manages to provide enough of a stir to push plenty of weak, thin ice over the edge, but not consume/vent enough heat energy from the depths to trigger a 2013-esque follow up year. Basin retention of a decent chunk of that insolation energy can’t be good for the future.

Another point of consideration might be if the fragile ice is pushed into a lower latitude and  migrates into areas that are still open to insolation and bottom melt and thereby not depleting the heat energy of the ice forming areas.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

[bbr2315]

The 12z EURO now shows the Laptev front collapsing simultaneous with the Lincoln Sea. The entire ATL front east of Lomonosov has a legitimate shot of melting out this year, IMO, or 75%+ of this area that remains.

If the 12z EURO is correct we are probably in for continued 100K+ drops in extent and an area finish under 2M KM^2 and an extent finish under 3M KM^2 are both within possibilities.

I am beginning to become worried that as ice is transported back into Lincoln Sea, it is going to be flushed into the Nares. The Nares is going to export a huge amount of ice into Baffin and the open water in Lincoln may keep growing through mid-September. The EURO portends something along these lines, IMO.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

How many days out is the frontal collapse predicted in the 12z EURO? I’ll take a look myself later when I get a chance as well, but in your opinion bbr how likely is that development? Would it be simultaneous with the arrival of the low that has been discussed so far, or is it a separate occurrence?

[pearscot]

-snip-

I am beginning to become worried that as ice is transported back into Lincoln Sea, it is going to be flushed into the Nares. The Nares is going to export a huge amount of ice into Baffin and the open water in Lincoln may keep growing through mid-September. The EURO portends something along these lines, IMO.

I've been literally mulling the EXACT same things. I'm sure you're aware, but even over the last 5 days export out of the Nares has been fairly impressive. There are just so many fronts which are under attack. I'm still in compete awe at the destruction above North Greenland.

Either way, to supplement your point and since I'm on my fancy work computer here's a gif to emphasize all of this:

[gerontocrat]

And by the looks of it, a nice supply of bite-sized floes with none big enough to form a chokepoint in the strait (as normally happens quite often).

[pearscot]

I did note one (maybe around the 12th?) that was pretty big but it hit that channel to the north and shattered into 3 pieces. Plus, at this point, I consider any ice sent down the Nares to be gone because Baffin Bay is quite warm (like everything else) at the moment.

There's just so much action to be had and I share everyone's thoughts on just how amazing it is the see the pole in such bad shape. I don't really care where this season ends up technically speaking. There are so many systematic changes underway which only spell out trouble. I mean if there's really strong el nino year...who knows what will happen. All of what we are witnessing is occurring during a neutral/*slight-trending* la nina.

Additionally, after seeing the ice begin to fall apart above North Greenland in 2019 and the absolute destruction this year, I can only imagine 2021 will continue the onslaught.

[ajouis]

A very important observation!
IMHO
The major metrics that are currently referenced during this stage of the 2020 melt season VOLUME. AREA and EXTENT may serve little useful purpose; the exceptions are compaction, weather and observations.

In particular, wrt the posting by Bremer, the presumption that the BOE will be a September minima must be challenged. Indeed, October or even November must now be given serious consideration and should this prove to be the actuality the implications for both summer and winter sea ice will be very significant.

+1 for thinking outside of the box

I would challenge this notion in the current arctic, given that darkness sets in above 80N and the smallness of the area of the arctic sea ice, especially outside 80N, in late September, it seems very unlikely that even strong SSTs could delay area gains more than a week at most, let alone continue the thaw. It would be interesting with column mixing, but given the low winter temperatures it would still not amount to much, especially if we are talking about continued thaw, although it could have effects on reduced thickness increase and delayed freezing. Now the Laptev and the ESS are where it’s at, heated at depth, mostly below 80N, but they don’t play a role in a boe or the cutoff between the freezing and thawing season anymore

[aslan]

And, as an illustration, 63.4 millimeters of rain in 1 hour at Sandefjord Gjekstad, highest hourly rainfall rate for Norway. Old record was 54.9 mm in 1 hour at Asker. The thermal wave, consequence of Kyle and Ellen, is by no mean a joke. No matter the exact to the nearest decimal of the min pressure for the North Pole, this is going to be bad for the atlantic front.

[glennbuck]

The heat just goes on and on unheard-of for this time of year in the Arctic Ocean. Aug 25th, 5.4 C and Aug 26th, 5.0 C. Average for these dates in this area, 2014-2019 below 0 C. Like a giant Hairdryer from the Laptev and Kara Sea, blowing warm surface air into the Arctic Ocean for weeks.

[Sublime_Rime]

The 12z EURO now shows the Laptev front collapsing simultaneous with the Lincoln Sea. The entire ATL front east of Lomonosov has a legitimate shot of melting out this year, IMO, or 75%+ of this area that remains.

If the 12z EURO is correct we are probably in for continued 100K+ drops in extent and an area finish under 2M KM^2 and an extent finish under 3M KM^2 are both within possibilities.

Indeed the 18Z GFS now corroborates this short-term forecast. Winds peaking on d2-3 around a long LP trough, 30-40kts bringing warm air north from Laptev/Kara sector and compacting ice into CAB, while the flow on the other side of the LP will probably close the gap and increase Fram export. I only posted GFS but magnitude of this event seems even greater on Euro. This while heat wave over Beaufort intensifies, though winds will lead to more dispersion. Based on the long term nature of this pattern, I'm guessing a good long stretch of 50-100K extent losses, but area losses of 50K or less, for the next 10 days or so.

[Paul]

The 12z EURO now shows the Laptev front collapsing simultaneous with the Lincoln Sea. The entire ATL front east of Lomonosov has a legitimate shot of melting out this year, IMO, or 75%+ of this area that remains.

If the 12z EURO is correct we are probably in for continued 100K+ drops in extent and an area finish under 2M KM^2 and an extent finish under 3M KM^2 are both within possibilities.

I am beginning to become worried that as ice is transported back into Lincoln Sea, it is going to be flushed into the Nares. The Nares is going to export a huge amount of ice into Baffin and the open water in Lincoln may keep growing through mid-September. The EURO portends something along these lines, IMO.

I just can't see extent falling under 3 million, it would take unprecedented ice losses to even break the record nevermind going that low. Also the Beaufort ice will probably remain stubborn especially as the Beaufort high is looking very short lived, a common theme this year.

All that said, despite the storm basicaallly weakening into a normal area of low pressure, because there is an Arctic high forecast to develop, it does create a strong pressure gradient which as you said will put pressure on the Laptev/Atlantic front. Just how far north will it go, will it go beyond 85 degrees north or not?

Regardless the ice loss trends are very clear and this year has reinforced that. I've no doubt the next few months could see the Arctic making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Just how long will it take for the Laptev sea to full freeze this year!?

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

Is it possible that less storm activity could result in more thermal energy retention in the Arctic Basin as a whole? In that regard could the end result be somewhat of an anti-2012 where the end of the season isn’t as dramatic but it could setup a much less ice-favorable entire next melt season?

[jdallen]

Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
<snip>

I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.

Without getting too far off topic. Think about it. Even with a virtual tie with 2012 this leaves 2020
a lot worse off, considering how much other permafrost, tundra, glacier ice, Ice sheet, Ice shelf, ect. type ice that has been lost since 2012. All of which served as back up to the world's a/c system.

You underscore my point.  Thank you.

jdallen Tigertown, I think the beige pixels say the same thing as you.

I'm pretty sure we will end up in 2nd in at least one or two categories. 

I suspect the final metrics won't match up with the actual conditions and quality of the ice, which at this point, I think will be entirely as devastated as they were in 2012.

[D-Penguin]

A very important observation!
IMHO
The major metrics that are currently referenced during this stage of the 2020 melt season VOLUME. AREA and EXTENT may serve little useful purpose; the exceptions are compaction, weather and observations.

In particular, wrt the posting by Bremer, the presumption that the BOE will be a September minima must be challenged. Indeed, October or even November must now be given serious consideration and should this prove to be the actuality the implications for both summer and winter sea ice will be very significant.

+1 for thinking outside of the box

I would challenge this notion in the current arctic, given that darkness sets in above 80N and the smallness of the area of the arctic sea ice, especially outside 80N, in late September, it seems very unlikely that even strong SSTs could delay area gains more than a week at most, let alone continue the thaw. It would be interesting with column mixing, but given the low winter temperatures it would still not amount to much, especially if we are talking about continued thaw, although it could have effects on reduced thickness increase and delayed freezing. Now the Laptev and the ESS are where it’s at, heated at depth, mostly below 80N, but they don’t play a role in a boe or the cutoff between the freezing and thawing season anymore

I think that your response is entirely reasonable.

However, your caveat 'in the current Arctic' is perhaps the nub of the issue. The 'current Arctic' (2020) is not the Arctic of previous years nor is the current weather and abnormal heat energy in the Arctic system.

Therefore, I suggest we cannot discount the possibility that the continuing movement and export of large areas of fragmented ice North and South of 80N might not only delay the formation of new ice but also the date of the minimum. With this scenario the continuing loss of ice would be driven by temperature, wind and currents, not by loss of daylight.

It is the 'perbutration' from the 'trend' in the system that now requires answers to the questions:

'HOW will the Arctic transition to the BOE?'
A progressive OR singular event

'HOW will a fractional BOE be determined with the use of existing metrics?'
A measured OR observed event

AND IMPORTANTLY (IMHO)

'HOW will a fractional 2020 sea ice minimum be accurately assessed, using existing metrics, in comparative terms with the minimum of previous years?'
Possible OR impossible

[Rod]

I just can't see extent falling under 3 million, it would take unprecedented ice losses to even break the record nevermind going that low. Also the Beaufort ice will probably remain stubborn especially as the Beaufort high is looking very short lived, a common theme this year.

I never look past three days for arctic forecasts, and I don’t see anything in the near term that destroys the remaining ice.  I agree that the ice in the Beaufort looks like it will last. That will be the difference between this year and 2012.

However, it is important to remember that the ice in the Beaufort right now is the last of the old thick ice, and it is in a terrible place. Even if it does not melt this year, and we don’t hit No. 1 on extent, it is not going to last much longer.

People get hung up on the extent metric without remembering it is based on grid data with the 15% rule. It does not really tell us how much ice is there.  It tells us where the ice is located.

The papers Vox posted today in the temperature, salinity and waves thread are very important for this melt season. The death to the ice will ultimately come from both above and below. The halocline is getting thinner.

If we do get a strong storm with some really good mixing, we can still beat 2012 this year. But, that is weather dependent.

The bigger issue is that each year we have less ice during the high solar radiation periods, and the ice we do have gets thinner and more fragmented allowing for more input from shortwave radiation and more mixing of Atlantic waters.

No matter what the final extent numbers end up being this year, it has been a terrible year for the sea ice, the subsea permafrost and the land based permafrost. All of those sources of ice are important to the cryosphere.

Our air conditioner is broken!

[Frivolousz21]

Jaxa dropped -98K today.

Almost another century break.

[Rod]

Jaxa dropped -98K today.

Almost another century break.

That gets us within 312K of 2012. The extent record is still within reach if we get the right weather during the next couple of weeks.

But, even if we don’t, my point above is that this melt season has been remarkable. Extent is just one measure. Being 1st or 2nd does not tell the whole story of how hot it has been in the Arctic and how much melting has happened this summer.  We are seeing a regime change. The sea ice extent metric is just one measure of what has happened during this record summer.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

I agree, Rod. I definitely feel like 2020 is a great example of how a 2D (and often lower resolution) metric is not always ideal for describing systemic 3D change. It’s certainly better than nothing, though. This melt season will probably be looked back upon in the future as a bit of an iceberg, with a lot of the important effects not easily visible to their true extent through the “surface” metric of extent. I think the complete picture of the impact of this summer will reveal itself in a paced manner over time.

[romett1]

Jaxa dropped -98K today.

Almost another century break.

5 day difference shows most of it came from the Pacific side. But also Atlantic front is worth looking at. Not to mention situation north of Greenland.

[miki]

I do hope extent minimum is a record, this year.

Even if it is not, the mess that the Arctic is in it's still there. It is pretty horrifying no matter were you put your eyes. With a ton of heat stored in the system.

But a new record in the extent may actually shake a few more people.
In the end, it's the simplest metric to grasp for many.

[Aluminium]

August 17-21.

2019.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

[Paddy]

But a new record in the extent may actually shake a few more people.

Don't count on it.

[Ktb]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

On the 25th the CAA is going to be blasted with heat. Time to say goodbye to the remaining ice there?

[Sebastian Jones]

Pearscott: I really appreciated the GIF of the Nares and N. Greenland. The fast ice breaking off in N. Greenland and floating off- down the Nares?- was particularly compelling.

[El Cid]

Is it possible that less storm activity could result in more thermal energy retention in the Arctic Basin as a whole? In that regard could the end result be somewhat of an anti-2012 where the end of the season isn’t as dramatic but it could setup a much less ice-favorable entire next melt season?

I wrote about it a couple of days ago. 2012 was such a recordbreaker because it brought up stored (accumulated during years) energy from the deep. Having exhausted that energy-reserve 2013 and 14 were recovery years.

This time, however, the seas (due to the GAAC) are hotter than they have been for at least a few millenia and without a big storm, this energy will stay in the system to be used not only during the fall (very slow refreeze on the Siberian side, for almost sure) but also in the coming years...

[Neven]

I never look past three days for arctic forecasts, and I don’t see anything in the near term that destroys the remaining ice.

I agree. The weather (ie the winds) has been absolutely benign for almost a month now. You couldn't ask for anything better at this stage of the melting season, to preserve the ice.

Which is great, because it proves - yet again - the importance of melting momentum.

For me, the takeaway message from this melting season, is that we usually see rebounds after big melting years (2007, 2012, 2016). Last year was a big melting year, but this sure is no rebound. Maybe next year?

As the interaction between IILWAR and El Cid shows, probably not:

Is it possible that less storm activity could result in more thermal energy retention in the Arctic Basin as a whole? In that regard could the end result be somewhat of an anti-2012 where the end of the season isn’t as dramatic but it could setup a much less ice-favorable entire next melt season?

I wrote about it a couple of days ago. 2012 was such a recordbreaker because it brought up stored (accumulated during years) energy from the deep. Having exhausted that energy-reserve 2013 and 14 were recovery years.

This time, however, the seas (due to the GAAC) are hotter than they have been for at least a few millenia and without a big storm, this energy will stay in the system to be used not only during the fall (very slow refreeze on the Siberian side, for almost sure) but also in the coming years...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest update on the daily changes...

Also, might try a new colour palette soon. It was pointed out on reddit that to people unfamiliar with sea ice, having ice-free areas as white is really counter intuitive!

[D-Penguin]

But a new record in the extent may actually shake a few more people.

Don't count on it.

2020 is a 'step change' for ASI. The terminology being used for this new state of ASI is fractional ice. The existing metrics can no longer provide a system of comparative analysis with the minimum extent of previous years. It is likely that there will be a 'time lag' between an actual BOE and a recognized BOE minimum based on some newly agreed or observed metric. Until this happens the policy recommendations of the IPCC will continue to be posted as 'fake news'.

However, quoting from the IPCC Newsroom Report 'IPCC opens meeting in Paris to consider 2022 climate change report outline':-
"The Synthesis Report, due to be released in the first part of 2022, will present the latest state of climate knowledge by drawing on information from these other IPCC reports. It will serve as the basis for international negotiations and will be ready in time for the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement in 2023."
and
"They agreed to review progress towards the goal in a global stocktake every five years starting in 2023."

If the IPCC is not prepared to recognize the paradigm shift of 2020 in the status of the ASI and the implications for AGW by 2023, by 2028 the first quinquennial stocktake year the international negotiators will not be able to ignore the actual manifestation of events in the Arctic; they will no longer be able to 'hide' behind a 'political interpretation' of  the 'science'.

So, my guess is that by 2028 at the latest, the 'truth will be out' about the significance of ASI loss and its impact on AGW'. If at this stage the global policy makers do not 'respond appropriately', then there will be a global popular response from everybody who can read a newspaper, view a television set or access the internet.

IMHO 2020 is a 'game changer' and the sooner we start considering the transition stages to an Arctic free of sea ice the better.

[gandul]

But a new record in the extent may actually shake a few more people.

Don't count on it.

2020 is a 'step change' for ASI. The terminology being used for this new state of ASI is fractional ice. The existing metrics can no longer provide a system of comparative analysis with the minimum extent of previous years. It is likely that there will be a 'time lag' between an actual BOE and a recognized BOE minimum based on some newly agreed or observed metric. Until this happens the policy recommendations of the IPCC will continue to be posted as 'fake news'.

IMHO 2020 is a 'game changer' and the sooner we start considering the transition stages to an Arctic free of sea ice the better.

Are you making things up? What is this “fractional ice” concept? I don’t see it. I see warmer years and less ice every year, with its worse years and its rebounds.
2016 was pretty ”fractional”, what are you talking about?
Grandiloquent unscientific statements as “fractional ice step year” has a lot in common with fake news.

[gandul]

I never look past three days for arctic forecasts, and I don’t see anything in the near term that destroys the remaining ice.

I agree. The weather (ie the winds) has been absolutely benign for almost a month now. You couldn't ask for anything better at this stage of the melting season, to preserve the ice.

Which is great, because it proves - yet again - the importance of melting momentum.

For me, the takeaway message from this melting season, is that we usually see rebounds after big melting years (2007, 2012, 2016). Last year was a big melting year, but this sure is no rebound. Maybe next year?

As the interaction between IILWAR and El Cid shows, probably not:

Is it possible that less storm activity could result in more thermal energy retention in the Arctic Basin as a whole? In that regard could the end result be somewhat of an anti-2012 where the end of the season isn’t as dramatic but it could setup a much less ice-favorable entire next melt season?

I wrote about it a couple of days ago. 2012 was such a recordbreaker because it brought up stored (accumulated during years) energy from the deep. Having exhausted that energy-reserve 2013 and 14 were recovery years.

This time, however, the seas (due to the GAAC) are hotter than they have been for at least a few millenia and without a big storm, this energy will stay in the system to be used not only during the fall (very slow refreeze on the Siberian side, for almost sure) but also in the coming years...

I agree. It’s the “fractional ice”, aka thinned ice full of melt ponds due to June-July weather, doesn’t resist a minimum blow, but that doesn’t mean sea water will refreeze and we’ll have the usual mix of FYI and SYI that we have left of since 2007.

I also note that ECMWF had a 5-day forecast a few days ago that was pretty aggressive and that is being diluted as we get through it.

[Paul]

I never look past three days for arctic forecasts, and I don’t see anything in the near term that destroys the remaining ice.

I agree. The weather (ie the winds) has been absolutely benign for almost a month now. You couldn't ask for anything better at this stage of the melting season, to preserve the ice.

Which is great, because it proves - yet again - the importance of melting momentum.

For me, the takeaway message from this melting season, is that we usually see rebounds after big melting years (2007, 2012, 2016). Last year was a big melting year, but this sure is no rebound. Maybe next year?

As the interaction between IILWAR and El Cid shows, probably not:

Is it possible that less storm activity could result in more thermal energy retention in the Arctic Basin as a whole? In that regard could the end result be somewhat of an anti-2012 where the end of the season isn’t as dramatic but it could setup a much less ice-favorable entire next melt season?

I wrote about it a couple of days ago. 2012 was such a recordbreaker because it brought up stored (accumulated during years) energy from the deep. Having exhausted that energy-reserve 2013 and 14 were recovery years.

This time, however, the seas (due to the GAAC) are hotter than they have been for at least a few millenia and without a big storm, this energy will stay in the system to be used not only during the fall (very slow refreeze on the Siberian side, for almost sure) but also in the coming years...

I have to agree regarding the weather conditions, since that storm the weather has been quite unremarkable so high SSTS and melt momentum is definately playing a part here. We will never know for sure if weather conditions has been worse whether it will result in even worse ice extent but it does show the thinness of the ice. I'm shocked just how quickly the Chukchi ice went, as soon as it went proper diffused, it seemed to affect the ice around it.

Last year saw the best weather conditions for ice retention at this time of year but still drop below 4 millions. I just can't see how we finish above last year's total nevermind 4 million. Even though weather conditions look favourable on paper, the temperatures are really not all that cold at all.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

Instead of the ice, it was the storm that went poof...

[gandul]

Another element that this August weather has brought is significant cloudiness especially in the pacific half, which means heat excess retention and enhanced melting.
I’d be surprised if Arctic temperatures in August are not well above average.

[Davidsf]

Latest update on the daily changes...

Also, might try a new colour palette soon. It was pointed out on reddit that to people unfamiliar with sea ice, having ice-free areas as white is really counter intuitive!

BFTV, love your graphics. Agree with the idea of a new color palette.

[D-Penguin]

But a new record in the extent may actually shake a few more people.

Don't count on it.

2020 is a 'step change' for ASI. The terminology being used for this new state of ASI is fractional ice. The existing metrics can no longer provide a system of comparative analysis with the minimum extent of previous years. It is likely that there will be a 'time lag' between an actual BOE and a recognized BOE minimum based on some newly agreed or observed metric. Until this happens the policy recommendations of the IPCC will continue to be posted as 'fake news'.

IMHO 2020 is a 'game changer' and the sooner we start considering the transition stages to an Arctic free of sea ice the better.

Are you making things up? What is this “fractional ice” concept? I don’t see it. I see warmer years and less ice every year, with its worse years and its rebounds.
2016 was pretty ”fractional”, what are you talking about?
Grandiloquent unscientific statements as “fractional ice step year” has a lot in common with fake news.

Fractional ice related to a BOE was a term used by A-Team see:-
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 19, 2020, 09:40:25 PM »
Who am I to argue with the expertise and terminology of A-Team?

How do you reconcile your statement:-
"I see warmer years and less ice every year, with its worse years and its rebounds."
If you have warmer years and less ice every year there is no rebound, it is a contradiction of terms.

We fundamentally disagree on the transition stages from an Arctic ocean with sea ice to an Arctic ocean free of ice. You consider the transition as a progression. I consider the transition as singular events and without the 'rebounds. So, we must agree to disagree on this matter.

I am expressing an opinion and this should not be described as 'False News'.

[D-Penguin]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

Instead of the ice, it was the storm that went poof...

This looks like very active weather with considerable potential for ice export through the Fram and Nares Straits. If this transpires will the satellites pick up the full extent losses of the very low compaction of the CAA and central ice pack?