Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 628842 times)

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2834
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1293
  • Likes Given: 258
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5500 on: August 28, 2020, 03:43:34 PM »
For years there has been discussion of the "Laptev Bite".  Who would have thought there would ever be a "Greenland Bite"?
12hr amsr2 from awi, aug27

MrGreeny

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5501 on: August 28, 2020, 03:48:57 PM »
Such a low drop today, makes me wonder if melt has really started to slow down or would there be a few kicker days left.

Which makes me believe that this season will end with extent being between 3.65mil-3.88mil.
The ice spins right round baby right round, like a record baby right round round round ~

marcel_g

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 126
    • View Profile
    • Art by Marcel Guldemond
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 379
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5502 on: August 28, 2020, 04:07:45 PM »
Could be an early minimum.

With that anti cyclone dominating while we lose insolation
Yeah, with no really serious wind events since early August, the ice hasn’t Been pushed around much. It could stall here, with losses in the Beaufort being offset by gains in areas that are farther north.

Interesting how all of those forecasts of incoming storms seemed to Peter out.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9660
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3812
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5503 on: August 28, 2020, 04:33:29 PM »
On an early question about the southern extent of ice in the Greenland Sea being exceptional at this date - isn't this mostly a result of the unusually high level of export in the Fram this year and the thicker quality of ice comprising most of that export. That ice in effect created a buffer for the ice along the Greenland coast delaying its exposure the the open seas. The fact that the ice north of Greenland is exceptionally weak this year belies theories that what has happened on the Asian side (land and sea) is being counterbalanced by unusual strength on the Greenland side.
Fram export graph from Wipneus attached.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2401
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 304
  • Likes Given: 20397
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5504 on: August 28, 2020, 04:59:45 PM »
BornFTV-
Very nice.
<snip>

I second that. Great work imo. Thank you.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2392
  • Likes Given: 2049
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5505 on: August 28, 2020, 05:14:20 PM »
On an early question about the southern extent of ice in the Greenland Sea being exceptional at this date - isn't this mostly a result of the unusually high level of export in the Fram this year and the thicker quality of ice comprising most of that export. That ice in effect created a buffer for the ice along the Greenland coast delaying its exposure the the open seas. The fact that the ice north of Greenland is exceptionally weak this year belies theories that what has happened on the Asian side (land and sea) is being counterbalanced by unusual strength on the Greenland side.
I agree, it's caused by the winter export of thicker than usual ice from the vicinity of the Pole.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5506 on: August 28, 2020, 06:03:28 PM »
The top melting is still strong between north pole and Laptev sea(East Siberian sea)(2020.08.28). The bottom melting is aggressive to melt those region (2020.08.26). The sea water temperature is still high and will not be dramatically cooled down. The surface air temperature is gradually dropping down and close to zero degree. I want to know how strong the bottom melt will be.
This is actually the region where we could see signs of ocean refreezing earlier on, as ocean surface can start to refreeze in September within the broken ice, next to disperse blocks where bottom melting still be ongoing well into October.

I think this area, under the persistent anticyclone, will lose heat quickly. The Beaufort sea appendix, however, while cold too, will be under stronger winds and some slightly choppy seas which still mix ocean water layers, delay refreezing, and enhance ocean heat transfer to the ice.

Below the 2m temperatures next 10 days according to GFS, the 6MB gif needs a click
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 06:32:35 PM by gandul »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5507 on: August 28, 2020, 08:04:41 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5508 on: August 28, 2020, 08:21:34 PM »
Could be an early minimum.

With that anti cyclone dominating while we lose insolation
Yeah, with no really serious wind events since early August, the ice hasn’t Been pushed around much. It could stall here, with losses in the Beaufort being offset by gains in areas that are farther north.

Interesting how all of those forecasts of incoming storms seemed to Peter out.
Until now this is.

Sooner or later the storms will happen once the temp gradient will incrase and very cold air-masses find themselves adjacent to quite to very warm air-masses, sea-surface-temps and increased humidity/damp air.

The later this happens the later could be the minimum (just a hypothesis) hence once again, like so many times before, patience is needed to let things develop and ultimately happen.

Confidence leve 75%

UCMiami

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 94
  • Likes Given: 112
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5509 on: August 28, 2020, 11:25:11 PM »
For those not reading the mosaic thread regularly A-Team just posted a stunning composite image there earlier today:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg283792.html#msg283792

Well worth a look - combination of ASMR2_AWI with the main pack blanked out with nullschool wind overlay. It focuses attention on the ice most susceptible to the winds.



<Added the image itself. O>
« Last Edit: August 28, 2020, 11:32:32 PM by oren »

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5510 on: August 29, 2020, 12:28:05 AM »
Could be an early minimum.

With that anti cyclone dominating while we lose insolation
Yeah, with no really serious wind events since early August, the ice hasn’t Been pushed around much. It could stall here, with losses in the Beaufort being offset by gains in areas that are farther north.

Interesting how all of those forecasts of incoming storms seemed to Peter out.
Until now this is.

Sooner or later the storms will happen once the temp gradient will incrase and very cold air-masses find themselves adjacent to quite to very warm air-masses, sea-surface-temps and increased humidity/damp air.

The later this happens the later could be the minimum (just a hypothesis) hence once again, like so many times before, patience is needed to let things develop and ultimately happen.

Confidence leve 75%

Yes sure, but the chance that your storm’s cool air overcomes other effects and actually enhances refreezing increases a 5% per day as September starts and maxes out at 100% 20 sept thereon.

I made up the numbers but experience tell me that. At some point anticyclones cyclones or whatever won’t stop refreezing in any shape or form.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5511 on: August 29, 2020, 12:42:13 AM »
The internal rim of the Beaufort appendix is seeded with many surviving blocks from 5 km up to 40 km of typical length. Only a vigorous storm would be able to break them all in much smaller floes but that is not going to happen anytime soon.

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5512 on: August 29, 2020, 12:45:52 AM »
Could be an early minimum.

With that anti cyclone dominating while we lose insolation
Yeah, with no really serious wind events since early August, the ice hasn’t Been pushed around much. It could stall here, with losses in the Beaufort being offset by gains in areas that are farther north.

Interesting how all of those forecasts of incoming storms seemed to Peter out.
Until now this is.

Sooner or later the storms will happen once the temp gradient will incrase and very cold air-masses find themselves adjacent to quite to very warm air-masses, sea-surface-temps and increased humidity/damp air.

The later this happens the later could be the minimum (just a hypothesis) hence once again, like so many times before, patience is needed to let things develop and ultimately happen.

Confidence leve 75%

Yes sure, but the chance that your storm’s cool air overcomes other effects and actually enhances refreezing increases a 5% per day as September starts and maxes out at 100% 20 sept thereon.

I made up the numbers but experience tell me that. At some point anticyclones cyclones or whatever won’t stop refreezing in any shape or form.

Of course but we are at least 2, most probably 3 weeks away and we are already lagging in temp drops above 80N signifacantly compared to other years. As long as that heat has not been transformed in one or another way we can expect some energy release in form of above 0C heavy winds.

This is by no means contradicting what you say, on the contrary, it's correct while there is time between now and then and that's the period I'm talking about.

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5513 on: August 29, 2020, 01:03:49 AM »
I think one reason why the DMI temperature is not dropping Is because of the huge warm anaomolies in the Barants sea with the lack of sea ice and warmth from the nearby Kara and Laptev seas. If you take the GFS temperatures at face value, they are not all that different to other years apart from in that area. There is a lack of zero cold pool but again in actual temperature, the differences at this stage are fairly small.

I'm not sure what to make of this persistent high pressure, I do think it's better than low pressure at this time of year in terms of releasing heat frrom the oceans at night but that gets counteracted of the orientation of the high is in such an area where its picking up heat from the ocean, in this case the Laptev and Barants sea which means temperatures are struggling to drop.

All that said, it does help the ice in the Beaufort and parts of the Beaufort/Chukchi sea border could be poised for a quick refreeze seeing as worldview seems to show alot of shallow ice there which suggests SSTS are quite low and alot of ice only just recently melted. The total opposite of the Laptev sea and Barants/Kara. I will not be at all surprised if the Laptev does not fully freeze over until the 3rd week of November at least. Its going to be an interesting few months.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 579
  • Likes Given: 201
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5514 on: August 29, 2020, 11:59:28 AM »
Latest daily images are below, and the animation. Clearly the northward push of the Laptev/Kara/Barents ice edge is dominating the scene.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5515 on: August 29, 2020, 02:17:08 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9660
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3812
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5516 on: August 29, 2020, 02:37:11 PM »
The Atlantic Front -all the way from 15 to 150 degrees East

Persistent strong winds from a warm Siberia across a long fetch of warm water which must make the air wet. ( A-Team reminded us on where and how swells from such a long fetch can, depending on ice conditions, do a lot of damage.)

That looks like a lot of the front pushing to 85 North, and that wet warm air and warm seas at the ice edge must mean melt.

And that cyclone plonked on Svalbard can't be doing the sea ice off NE Greenland a lot of good.

Beaufort & CAA. Don't know enough even to make a guess. And anyway, what do I know?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Shared Humanity

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 240
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5517 on: August 29, 2020, 03:21:11 PM »
Just going to say those SST anomalies look pretty scary...everywhere.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5518 on: August 29, 2020, 03:38:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,751,581 KM2                  
Sea ice area gain on this day 7 k, 40 k different from the 2010's average loss of 33 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 548 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,482 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 6 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 215 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 173 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 28-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,416,677 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 21 k, 24 k less than the 2010's average loss of 45k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 524 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,561 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 318 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 221 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 543 k more than 2012

________________________________________
Well, that's a big change. Extent loss screeches almost to zero, area loss in reverse gear.
I am surprised, especially given JAXA extent loss up a little bit.

Area flattening, extent next within a week typically

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 678
  • Likes Given: 391
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5519 on: August 29, 2020, 03:43:01 PM »
DMI north of 80N temperature is still above zero. Aftermath of insane July? With these persistent southerlies, I wonder if at some point most of ice extent/area will remain in the Beaufort and CAA.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 579
  • Likes Given: 201
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5520 on: August 29, 2020, 03:49:45 PM »
Animation of the winds and current sea ice coverage. Cheers to Freegrass for the wind animation.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 710
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5521 on: August 29, 2020, 03:56:37 PM »

Area flattening, extent next within a week typically

We should be careful not to get too forecast-happy on a one day stall, however.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5522 on: August 29, 2020, 04:00:51 PM »
Animation of the winds and current sea ice coverage. Cheers to Freegrass for the wind animation.
Nice to both of you!
The persistence of the anticyclone center over the ice pack protuberance is really interesting. The heat wave from Atlantic side too! Like the freezing temperatures in one region balance the warmer compacting effect on the other.
Maybe slow losses in Beaufort sea break the balance toward the negative for one week more.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5523 on: August 29, 2020, 04:08:02 PM »

Area flattening, extent next within a week typically

We should be careful not to get too forecast-happy on a one day stall, however.

Sure, but the graph displays the 5-day average.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 04:22:41 PM by gandul »

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3726
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 442
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5524 on: August 29, 2020, 04:32:57 PM »
Re DMI 80N (NP-centric) temperatures.  With 50% of the North Pole area being covered by melt ponds, there is a strong "0" influence on the air temp.  'Any day now' that water is going to start freezing and will release lots of heat in the process, so a 0oC DMI 80N will linger for a while, I'll hazard to guess.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5525 on: August 29, 2020, 07:30:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

If this weather pattern continues to develop the way it has for the last few days now, then I think the beaufort will receive the last remainders of the thick ice while the entire pack starts compacting again...

Or will the entire pack detach itself even more from North America and float away towards the Chukchi sea?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5526 on: August 29, 2020, 09:09:11 PM »
The internal rim of the Beaufort appendix is seeded with many surviving blocks from 5 km up to 40 km of typical length. Only a vigorous storm would be able to break them all in much smaller floes but that is not going to happen anytime soon.

Correct while I haven't seen anyone voting for "ALL GONE" in the Beaufort recently.

I think there is a general or at least widely spread consense that there will be ice surviving this melt season in the Beaufort.

The debates, if there are any, are about how much ice will survive, while I believe, that this is a "glass half full" / "glass half empty" debate. You could make a poll as to how much of the current Beaufort-Ice shall survive and I'm quite convinced that the majority would vote for something in between 40-60%.

If you allow me the little humor, we're kind of shadow boxing while in fact there is no significant disagreament. Should this little joke go the wrong way I shall delete it because it's meant to be funny.

Enjoy your weekends @ALL

igs

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5527 on: August 29, 2020, 09:16:47 PM »
I think one reason why the DMI temperature is not dropping Is because of the huge warm anaomolies in the Barants sea with the lack of sea ice and warmth from the nearby Kara and Laptev seas. If you take the GFS temperatures at face value, they are not all that different to other years apart from in that area. There is a lack of zero cold pool but again in actual temperature, the differences at this stage are fairly small.

I'm not sure what to make of this persistent high pressure, I do think it's better than low pressure at this time of year in terms of releasing heat frrom the oceans at night but that gets counteracted of the orientation of the high is in such an area where its picking up heat from the ocean, in this case the Laptev and Barants sea which means temperatures are struggling to drop.

All that said, it does help the ice in the Beaufort and parts of the Beaufort/Chukchi sea border could be poised for a quick refreeze seeing as worldview seems to show alot of shallow ice there which suggests SSTS are quite low and alot of ice only just recently melted. The total opposite of the Laptev sea and Barants/Kara. I will not be at all surprised if the Laptev does not fully freeze over until the 3rd week of November at least. Its going to be an interesting few months.

While your observation as to the warmth in the Barents is correct, I think that since the winds are blowing almost straight up to the Pole from the Laptev-Side, that currently that's the main reason for above 0C temps over the pole area.

Of course winds have been and will be shifting again and the moment they're blowing form the Atlantic/Barents side it will be that heat that's going to rule temps on that side.

Perhaps I missed something, let me know, else I think we can settle for this ;)
« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 09:52:43 PM by igs »

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1426
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 621
  • Likes Given: 480
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5528 on: August 29, 2020, 09:49:11 PM »
 Never mind 'not dropping' , the dmi80+ temp. has risen again . Yesterday it was sharing it's exceptional height with 2016 , today it is out on it's own . Open water , meltponds and warm winds are all working to extend the season . ECM's forecast keeps temps above or close to 0'C for the next week . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 208
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5529 on: August 29, 2020, 11:00:58 PM »
Never mind 'not dropping' , the dmi80+ temp. has risen again . Yesterday it was sharing it's exceptional height with 2016 , today it is out on it's own . Open water , meltponds and warm winds are all working to extend the season . ECM's forecast keeps temps above or close to 0'C for the next week . b.c.
Hopefully, the WAA stops soon, but the temp stays high - so somehow that heat gets dumped out of the system.

Over large sections of the Arctic we have an extra 4 weeks (or more) of captured insolation added to the heat budget.  It's been stacking up seriously since 2016, though that may only signify when we started paying serious attention to it.

About the worst thing I can think of happening now would be calm clear skies that permit a quick surface re-freeze, locking a lot of that heat into the system.
This space for Rent.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1426
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 621
  • Likes Given: 480
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5530 on: August 29, 2020, 11:28:29 PM »
.. or a coat of snow to act as insulation ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Thomas Barlow

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5531 on: August 29, 2020, 11:46:10 PM »
<snip, N.>

Yea, snippy <>

<Complaints of snipping behavior should go to the Forum Decorum thread. Not here. O>
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 07:45:29 AM by oren »

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5532 on: August 30, 2020, 02:12:41 AM »
Never mind 'not dropping' , the dmi80+ temp. has risen again . Yesterday it was sharing it's exceptional height with 2016 , today it is out on it's own . Open water , meltponds and warm winds are all working to extend the season . ECM's forecast keeps temps above or close to 0'C for the next week . b.c.
Hopefully, the WAA stops soon, but the temp stays high - so somehow that heat gets dumped out of the system.

Over large sections of the Arctic we have an extra 4 weeks (or more) of captured insolation added to the heat budget.  It's been stacking up seriously since 2016, though that may only signify when we started paying serious attention to it.

About the worst thing I can think of happening now would be calm clear skies that permit a quick surface re-freeze, locking a lot of that heat into the system.

You see on that last point, I think the opposite. Ice can't form until the heat out of the ocean is gone so I don't buy into the theory a quick refreeze is bad for the ice. A slow refreeze means less time for the ice to thicken thus quicker to melt in the next melt season albeit weather will vary just how quick that would be.

Either way, high pressure rules the roost which should be a good thing except its still orientating in such a way it will bring heat into the basin. Makes me laugh seeing the models wanting to turn things colder as that is natural at this time of year yet they are totally underestimating the current heat that is in the basin which is why cold uppers at 96 hours gets much watered down by the time we get to zero.

Either way, more compaction/melt on the Atlantic/Laptev ice edge, how much of it will reach 85 degrees north, either way there is going to be lots of warm water in the next few months which no doubt will continue the trend of the PV struggling to form.

VeliAlbertKallio

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 205
  • Eheu fugaces labuntur anni
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5533 on: August 30, 2020, 02:46:24 AM »
This season with its large amount of pulverised sea ice will seed rapid expansion of film of new sea ice. This same phenomenon occurs in Antarctic waters where winds and sea currents regularly facilitate fast spreading of broken sea ice around the continent. The myriad of unmelted pieces of sea ice will seed ocean to rapid growth of sea ice if temperatures and sea water stirring are not prohibitive. The forming of this sea ice film slows down evaporation and outward long wave transmission. In the autumn the pulverisation seeds sea ice formation, whereas in the spring it increases absorption of solar radiation and ice melting. Captain Kramsin(*) is being operated on the Amurskaya Bay on "ice chipping" operations to crush ice in the spring to induce enhanced melting of sea ice, in the autumn its effect is opposite and ice grows faster. All that happens in Antarctica naturally, and in years with lots of broken ice, the ice area rebounds fast. (*Service operated by FESCO - Far East Shipping Company).
<snip>
<snip>
About the worst thing I can think of happening now would be calm clear skies that permit a quick surface re-freeze, locking a lot of that heat into the system.

You see on that last point, I think the opposite. Ice can't form until the heat out of the ocean is gone so I don't buy into the theory a quick refreeze is bad for the ice. A slow refreeze means less time for the ice to thicken thus quicker to melt in the next melt season albeit weather will vary just how quick that would be.

Either way, high pressure rules the roost which should be a good thing except its still orientating in such a way it will bring heat into the basin. Makes me laugh seeing the models wanting to turn things colder as that is natural at this time of year yet they are totally underestimating the current heat that is in the basin which is why cold uppers at 96 hours gets much watered down by the time we get to zero.

Either way, more compaction/melt on the Atlantic/Laptev ice edge, how much of it will reach 85 degrees north, either way there is going to be lots of warm water in the next few months which no doubt will continue the trend of the PV struggling to form.
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

ArcTickTock

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 99
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5534 on: August 30, 2020, 07:10:45 AM »
Holy deep freeze Batman, it sure looks like the ice will soon have retreated north of 85N on the Atlantic front!  How many times have we seen that before?

ArcTickTock

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 99
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5535 on: August 30, 2020, 07:20:16 AM »
The ice edge really rivals 2012 everywhere except CAA and Beaufort, if not for those two areas bailing the season out we likely would have had a new record minimum this year.

ArcTickTock

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 99
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5536 on: August 30, 2020, 07:54:52 AM »
Chiming in on the refreeze / no refreeze / heat retention issue, i would offer that all physics is local.  Would suggest that sea water will refreeze when the immediate surface water reaches the freezing point of water for the particular salinity existing at any given point on the surface in the absence of other dynamic factors.  There could be enormous reserves of heat at depth and that will not matter much to the rate of refreeze if there is no mixing.  So if ice formation reduces wave action and inhibits mixing there could be an insulating effect.  There is definitely a concern that the deep arctic is accumulating heat just as is happening in the rest of the world’s oceans.  One concern, and research suggests it is happening rapidly and there were worrying signs this year, is that accumulation of subsurface heat will lead to a breakdown of stratification or it will just occur closer and closer to the surface such that lesser storms and wave action become able to bring up warmer saltier water from below.  Just reread but have not looked at the math yet, the Arctic Ocean already contains enough heat to melt ALL the sea ice multiple times over.  Would certainly already have a BOE every year were it not for the Arctic’s inverse stratification.

Jontenoy

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5537 on: August 30, 2020, 08:27:12 AM »
Has anyone got any idea where I can read up the reasons for Arctic's Inverse stratification ?
Or can someone explain it here ?

kiwichick16

  • New ice
  • Posts: 53
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5538 on: August 30, 2020, 08:33:07 AM »
@  Arcticktok      ….yeah that's a WOW  dude ….or dudess  !!

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 678
  • Likes Given: 391
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5539 on: August 30, 2020, 09:28:34 AM »
August 25-29.

2019.

grixm

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 349
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 209
  • Likes Given: 68
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5540 on: August 30, 2020, 09:47:58 AM »
August 25-29.

2019.

Huge increase in concentration in the Greenland sea in the last frame. A sudden cold spell that froze a bunch of melt pools?

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2392
  • Likes Given: 2049
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5541 on: August 30, 2020, 10:18:05 AM »
It was snowing so probably this gave a better "ice" presentation of the surface to the satellite. Also melt ponds not frozen in depth but covered with some ice crystals.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 04:02:18 PM by oren »

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 390
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 267
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5542 on: August 30, 2020, 12:33:11 PM »
It almost looks like the ice is moving toward Greenland.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 579
  • Likes Given: 201
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5543 on: August 30, 2020, 12:35:28 PM »
Today's images and slow animation (big file).
The increased concentration, which is can be seen in the recent area values, are becoming more apparent
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1426
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 621
  • Likes Given: 480
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5544 on: August 30, 2020, 12:38:13 PM »
I was snowing so probably this gave a better "ice" presentation of the surface to the satellite. Also melt ponds not frozen in depth but covered with some ice crystals.

  'I was snoring' or 'it was snowing' ? .. took me a minute to guess which was intended ..  ;D
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7758
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1134
  • Likes Given: 526
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5545 on: August 30, 2020, 12:49:16 PM »
August 25-29.

2019.

That retreat north of Severnaya Zemlya is really spectacular, wow. And it's not over yet. Today and tomorrow there's a peak pressure gradient of 42 hPa, but according to ECMWF it will be 44 hPa at 120 hrs. The direction of the winds will shift a bit, but overall the ice pack should continue to get pushed towards the Pole.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1640
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 522
  • Likes Given: 765
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5546 on: August 30, 2020, 01:05:30 PM »
DMI 80 still going up. Melting season is getting longer before and after it seems.
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 219
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 45
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5547 on: August 30, 2020, 01:10:10 PM »
August 25-29.

2019.

That retreat north of Severnaya Zemlya is really spectacular, wow. And it's not over yet. Today and tomorrow there's a peak pressure gradient of 42 hPa, but according to ECMWF it will be 44 hPa at 120 hrs. The direction of the winds will shift a bit, but overall the ice pack should continue to get pushed towards the Pole.

This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.

2012 also saw ice retreated towards 85 degrees North, will this year see open water enter the 85 degrees north latitude? I suppose it did in 2013 and 2016 so it won't be totally unprecedented but still a major event in anycase.

gandul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 766
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5548 on: August 30, 2020, 01:11:45 PM »
Given the persistence of strong winds and the open water extent in Laptev, Windy forecasts a 4m swell traveling during the week toward Laptev ice edge

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9660
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3812
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #5549 on: August 30, 2020, 01:46:22 PM »
IF GFS has got it right, the remains of Hurricane Laura will be entering the Central Arctic next Thursday.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)