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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6050 on: September 11, 2020, 06:00:35 PM »
I ask that you indulge my bathymetry-and-ice-distribution fixation one more time. 

I don't see it as a fixation and really enjoy seeing ice extent with the bathymetry beneath. I am certain it plays some role in melt and ice preservation and is worth following.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6051 on: September 11, 2020, 06:06:22 PM »
The Polarstern from above on "Sunday morning", via the MOSAiC Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/MOSAiCArctic/status/1304440835119906817
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6052 on: September 11, 2020, 06:19:12 PM »
I'm really surprised more are not taking about the storm hitting Alaska's north slope. While I don't think we will see any large losses/gains of ice in the next week or so, I think with the current stormy conditions the ice is certainly going to be put under some strain.

Plus, given the overall warmth of the surrounding seas/oceans, I suspect there is a whole lot of mixing and bottom melt still occurring.
pls!

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6053 on: September 11, 2020, 06:34:35 PM »
The Polarstern from above on "Sunday morning", via the MOSAiC Twitter feed:
& no Lat / Long, date / time printed on the image..

Isn't anybody taught the basics of record keeping anymore?

Even the most junior Cop knows that without the chain of evidence the data cannot be relied upon.

Bloody amateurs.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6054 on: September 11, 2020, 07:40:58 PM »
Barrow and all of the north shore of Alaska are under hazardous weather conditions as the storm is at it strongest point there with gusts up to 50mph. Here are their official words:

Quote
...Elevated Surf Along the Arctic Coast Through Friday...

From Utqiagvik west, northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and elevated
surf are now occuring. The highest surf is occuring now. Winds
and surf will decrease this afternoon. Minor beach erosion is
expected. People should move belongings inland from the beach to
avoid them being damaged or washed away.

East of Utqiagvik, west winds of 25 to 35 mph and elevated surf
are now occuring. Gusts to 50 mph will occur this morning. The
highest surf is expected this morning and early this afternoon.
Winds and surf will decrease this evening. Minor beach erosion is
expected. People should move belongings inland from the beach to
avoid them being damaged or washed away.


« Last Edit: September 11, 2020, 08:19:21 PM by pearscot »
pls!

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6055 on: September 11, 2020, 07:49:02 PM »
Back door is closed.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6056 on: September 11, 2020, 08:48:19 PM »

& no Lat / Long, date / time printed on the image..

Isn't anybody taught the basics of record keeping anymore?

Even the most junior Cop knows that without the chain of evidence the data cannot be relied upon.

Bloody amateurs.
Is someone upset we're not going to reach a new record minimum then?        :o     ;)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6057 on: September 11, 2020, 09:12:21 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

Many thanks for all the kind words and compliments! But I was actually planning to leave after this melting season...  :-\

Some two or three years ago I looked at Nullschool, and I was surprised to see positive temperatures at the pole. That's how much I knew about the Arctic back then...

And so now that I've learned what I wanted to learn, it's time to move on to another project of mine, and leave the arctic to the specialists.

But I'll see what I can do for freezing season! I'll try to keep posting updates as much as I can, but honestly, it's time to move on for me. It's time to find my inner peace...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6058 on: September 11, 2020, 09:27:20 PM »
The Polarstern from above on "Sunday morning", via the MOSAiC Twitter feed:
& no Lat / Long, date / time printed on the image..

Isn't anybody taught the basics of record keeping anymore?

Even the most junior Cop knows that without the chain of evidence the data cannot be relied upon.

Bloody amateurs.
     Assuming the date on photo is date it was taken, the Mosaic tracking website has the Polarstern location on Sept 6 2020 at 88.45N 115.3E

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6059 on: September 11, 2020, 09:57:16 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

Many thanks for all the kind words and compliments! But I was actually planning to leave after this melting season...  :-\

But I'll see what I can do for freezing season! I'll try to keep posting updates as much as I can, but honestly, it's time to move on for me. It's time to find my inner peace...

I really hope you don't leave, but I can understand why. If you do, I've always appreciated/enjoyed your posts and wish you all of the best going forward. I'd buy you a short or 4 of cognac with an edible or two.
pls!

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6060 on: September 11, 2020, 10:08:41 PM »
AWI/Bremen have discovered a "data processing problem":

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/the-2020-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent/#comment-358167

Here's their updated extent graph:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6061 on: September 11, 2020, 10:19:54 PM »

& no Lat / Long, date / time printed on the image..

Isn't anybody taught the basics of record keeping anymore?

Even the most junior Cop knows that without the chain of evidence the data cannot be relied upon.

Bloody amateurs.
Is someone upset we're not going to reach a new record minimum then?        :o     ;)
Nope - I am surprised it's got that close. But in a fairly important sea it has - the Central Arctic Sea is at a new record low extent (NSIDC 5 day trailing average), 38k less than the record low minimum in 2012 and perhaps a bit more to go.

But not to date, time, and register location as automatic on photographic evidence on a project like MOSAIC is really, really, dumb.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 02:34:33 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6062 on: September 11, 2020, 10:30:35 PM »
"Central Arctic Sea at its lowest extent"  - - - So if it wasn't for the large chunk of ice in Beaufort and the partly filled channels in the CAA we would have beaten 2012 ??
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6063 on: September 11, 2020, 10:54:47 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
But I'll see what I can do for freezing season! I'll try to keep posting updates as much as I can, but honestly, it's time to move on for me. It's time to find my inner peace...
Hey Freegrass, I also hope, along with pearscot and I am sure many others, that you do not leave, but that inner peace thing is pretty important.  We're all on a one way trip, arctic ice or no arctic ice, and whatever direction you take, I wish you, warmly, all the best.   

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6064 on: September 11, 2020, 11:02:07 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

Many thanks for all the kind words and compliments! But I was actually planning to leave after this melting season...  :-\

Some two or three years ago I looked at Nullschool, and I was surprised to see positive temperatures at the pole. That's how much I knew about the Arctic back then...

And so now that I've learned what I wanted to learn, it's time to move on to another project of mine, and leave the arctic to the specialists.

But I'll see what I can do for freezing season! I'll try to keep posting updates as much as I can, but honestly, it's time to move on for me. It's time to find my inner peace...
I appreciated your posts as much as I disagreed with some of your views. But anyway, good luck if you quit soon.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6065 on: September 11, 2020, 11:25:06 PM »
"Central Arctic Sea at its lowest extent"  - - - So if it wasn't for the large chunk of ice in Beaufort and the partly filled channels in the CAA we would have beaten 2012 ??

Quite possibly. In all honesty, i never expected the Atlantic edge to get so far north, it really is impressive stuff.

Looking at the weather conditions, Im struggling to find too much potential of refreeze, the Siberian side is looking more likely tto get quite ugly in the next few months.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6066 on: September 11, 2020, 11:28:08 PM »
Hey Freegrass, do what makes you happy, but once a pagophile means always a pagophile :). All the best if you do retire, and thanks for all your useful animations and commentaries
Bunch of small python Arctic Apps:
https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic

UCMiami

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6067 on: September 11, 2020, 11:57:57 PM »
AWI/Bremen have discovered a "data processing problem":

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/the-2020-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent/#comment-358167

Here's their updated extent graph:
I am wondering if someone more familiar with their data and access to it can say how this correction has affected the 2019 numbers (they say the error dates back to 2018) and if it has spilled into their area data as well?

cesium62

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6068 on: September 12, 2020, 12:30:53 AM »
::)
I ask that you indulge my bathymetry-and-ice-distribution fixation one more time. ...  The thing that jumps out here for me is how different this year is from all the others in terms of the Atlantic front, as others have noted.  2020 melt has advanced into the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in a manner that seems qualitatively different..

As noted before, it is NOT unprecedented. 2013 had almost exactly the same depth on the Atlantic Front:

You bring me more hope for ice recovery in the future.   

2013 had a larger minimum extent than any subsequent year.  The ice might get blown around a little bit, but it isn't "recovering".

cesium62

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6069 on: September 12, 2020, 12:57:40 AM »
...
I stand corrected.  Thank you!  You bring me more hope for ice recovery in the future.  ....

I would not put too much hope into ice recovery, given sea ice temperatures.
I attach the latest SST anomaly : 2020 vs 2019,16,12. Those were very strong melt years, but 2020 still stands out by far. The Arctic Seas are crazy hot (except for the Beaufort) even vs. those exceptional years. I don't see how the Atlantic/Siberian side will ever freeze over. (of course it will eventually but still...). This is pretty amazing!

The important thing to remember is that 2019, and 2016 are not "very strong melt years".  If you run a trendline through monthly September extent, these years are barely below trend.  If you take into account the context of northern hemisphere June snow and ice area (per Dekker), these years had higher extents than expected.  2020 is also a typical melt year.

2007, 2011, and 2012 might have had some crazy weather conditions that made them very strong melt years, but recent years are hitting low extents without those rare weather conditions.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6070 on: September 12, 2020, 02:23:11 AM »
Quote from: Pagophilus link=topic=3017.msg285971#msg285971 date=1599823924

You bring me more hope for ice recovery in the future.   
[/quote

2013 had a larger minimum extent than any subsequent year.  The ice might get blown around a little bit, but it isn't "recovering".
I guess I was vague and I need to clarify, since there is some (at times justified) suspicion of closet deniers around here.  I was thinking and writing in the context of the ice refreezing this winter and recovering somewhat from this year's strong melt, especially on the Atlantic front.  Longer term it is clear that the Arctic sea ice is only going down, with no recovery in prospect...

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6071 on: September 12, 2020, 08:09:14 AM »
Reminder that if 2012 wasn't a thing we'd all be blown away by this melting year. We are so far ahead of #3 in terms of extent.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 08:15:43 AM by grixm »

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6072 on: September 12, 2020, 08:15:23 AM »
The important thing to remember is that 2019, and 2016 are not "very strong melt years".  If you run a trendline through monthly September extent, these years are barely below trend.  If you take into account the context of northern hemisphere June snow and ice area (per Dekker), these years had higher extents than expected.  2020 is also a typical melt year.


2016 certainly was a strong melting year. Extent doesn't show the whole story since the ice was very dispersed that year. But 2016 was very bad in terms of area, and later in the fall and winter it had by far the slowest re-freeze of any year.

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6073 on: September 12, 2020, 08:39:42 AM »

The important thing to remember is that 2019, and 2016 are not "very strong melt years". 
OK, so 2 out of the previous 3 record years are not strong melt years...well, whatever

My point was that 2020 SSTs are crazy high compared to anything we have seen so far (except for the Beaufort/Chukchi area). Siberia and the Atlantic is often 2-4 C warmer than previous years due to all the energy that was put into the system by the 2020 GAAC. I am really curious how long it will delay the refreeze and how it will influence NH weather this winter.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6074 on: September 12, 2020, 09:08:55 AM »
I am wondering if someone more familiar with their data and access to it can say how this correction has affected the 2019 numbers (they say the error dates back to 2018) and if it has spilled into their area data as well?

The 2019 extent minimum has increased from 3,766,957.0 to 4,242,574.9

I assume that area has also been affected. Here's the latest version from AWI, compared to Wipneus's "homebrew" AMSR2 data:
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romett1

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6075 on: September 12, 2020, 10:51:31 AM »
Scorpion tail Sept 11 vs Sept 6. It's getting slightly thinner visually and moving towards Banks Island and Canadian coast.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6076 on: September 12, 2020, 12:41:26 PM »
Today's images and animation. A surprising northward shift in the ice edge north of Svalbard.
(As always, larger version of the animation on twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1304731118508429313)
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6077 on: September 12, 2020, 01:55:17 PM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick
It’s more resilient than FYI under a meter.

Anyway, the notion that Western CAB ice is homogeneously under a meter thick is misleading. I can imagine a field of mixed floes of different thickness, surviving tall  ridges, ... the closer to CAA the thicker and older in average. The region between the NP and the Beaufort sea has suffered surface melting but has stayed relatively protected compared to the other side of the NP. It stayed substantially colder during July even when it was 24/7 under the sun.
Now this 1 millon km2 of extent has several years of being stretched, exported to Beaufort sea or the CAA channels until it completely melts. It is a region of slow turnover time compared to the Gyre or the ice on the transpolar drift. It is a buffer against abrupt apocalypse scenarios.


gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6078 on: September 12, 2020, 02:28:39 PM »
AWI/Bremen have discovered a "data processing problem":

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/the-2020-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent/#comment-358167

Here's their updated extent graph:
I am wondering if someone more familiar with their data and access to it can say how this correction has affected the 2019 numbers (they say the error dates back to 2018) and if it has spilled into their area data as well?
I use the NSIDC data as made available from https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/
Its dataset goes back to 1979.
I also use the JAXA data that also goes back to 1979.

There is on occasion a glitch, but never a data correction on this scale. I am surprised it was not picked up earlier - being so out of sync with other datasets. NSIDC does do quality checks of their data on a continuous basis.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6079 on: September 12, 2020, 02:38:06 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Will this low disperse the ice and end the melting season?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6080 on: September 12, 2020, 03:05:51 PM »
Probably not. We haven't had the teasing ups and downs yet.
mercator 0m temperature(SST) with amsr2-uhh sic overlay, jun1-sep11
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 03:39:16 PM by uniquorn »

vox_mundi

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6081 on: September 12, 2020, 03:07:46 PM »
AWI/Bremen have discovered a "data processing problem":

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/08/the-2020-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent/#comment-358167

Here's their updated extent graph:
I am wondering if someone more familiar with their data and access to it can say how this correction has affected the 2019 numbers (they say the error dates back to 2018) and if it has spilled into their area data as well?
I use the NSIDC data as made available from https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/
Its dataset goes back to 1979.
I also use the JAXA data that also goes back to 1979.

There is on occasion a glitch, but never a data correction on this scale. I am surprised it was not picked up earlier - being so out of sync with other datasets. NSIDC does do quality checks of their data on a continuous basis.

Occam's razor ...

Considering the current administration has demonstrated that it's not above altering numbers to match their beliefs ...

See: https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-officials-sought-alter-cdc-reports-covid-leaked-emails-politico-2020-9?amp

... it wouldn't surprise me.

It's not like its the first time...

See: https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2007/jan/31/usnewsadfrontpagenews

Edit: Was reading gero's observation on NSIDC. Conflated the two. My bad.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 08:33:33 PM by vox_mundi »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6082 on: September 12, 2020, 03:58:33 PM »
It's not like its the first time...

Can I safely assume that you are aware that the AWI is located here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bremerhaven

and not here?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bremen,_Indiana
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Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6083 on: September 12, 2020, 04:14:13 PM »
Probably not. We haven't had the teasing ups and downs yet.
mercator 0m temperature(SST) with amsr2-uhh sic overlay, jun1-sep11
Thank you, uniquorn.  Great animation -- helps me understand the dynamics better.  Apart from the obvious warmth of the Siberian seas I am struck by a few factors.  Probably factors that are familiar to many others, so I would ask your patience with me.

--BFTW noted in his latest animation message that there was a minor retreat of the ice N of Svalbard -- that corresponds roughly with the tongue of warm water that typically occurs there, the surface end of some N Atlantic circulation I believe.
--The Kara is really warm.  Is that usual?  Will refreeze be unusually inhibited there?  (It seems logical that refreeze will generally be inhibited on the Siberian side)  Or will fresher, more easily frozen surface water from rivers feeding into the Kara counteract this?
--The remaining icepack is comfortably within the area of cooler surface water (corresponding roughly with the deep Arctic basin) and so it seems safe from much further bottom melting.

All surmise, would appreciate learning from the experts here!

Davidsf

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6084 on: September 12, 2020, 05:22:44 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

Many thanks for all the kind words and compliments! But I was actually planning to leave after this melting season...  :-\

FG, thank you for the forecasts throughout this season. And wishing you well

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6085 on: September 12, 2020, 06:37:59 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Will this low disperse the ice and end the melting season?

It will be fun to watch. Given its location and the relatively dispersed ice near the Laptev, we may be surprised. I think this area of the CAB and the Beaufort still have some melt in them.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2020, 01:31:01 AM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6086 on: September 12, 2020, 06:42:05 PM »

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6087 on: September 12, 2020, 07:53:29 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Will this low disperse the ice and end the melting season?
The melting season is in terminal flatline since Sep 7, the melting in Beaufort sea balancing what is already freezing in CAB/CAA. So, yes.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6088 on: September 12, 2020, 08:05:12 PM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick
It’s more resilient than FYI under a meter.

Anyway, the notion that Western CAB ice is homogeneously under a meter thick is misleading. I can imagine a field of mixed floes of different thickness, surviving tall  ridges, ... the closer to CAA the thicker and older in average. The region between the NP and the Beaufort sea has suffered surface melting but has stayed relatively protected compared to the other side of the NP. It stayed substantially colder during July even when it was 24/7 under the sun.
Now this 1 millon km2 of extent has several years of being stretched, exported to Beaufort sea or the CAA channels until it completely melts. It is a region of slow turnover time compared to the Gyre or the ice on the transpolar drift. It is a buffer against abrupt apocalypse scenarios.
This triangle seems to be residing in between the Atlantic salt and the most southern Pacific heat...
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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6089 on: September 12, 2020, 08:48:04 PM »
Yes. In any case it is my opinion lots of ice within that triangle have survived ‘17 ‘18 and ‘19 (‘16 was a massacre for MYI, but much of it was exported to the CAA channels; wonder why the CAA ice has not melted out and the NW (main) passage didn’t open since at least 2015 iirc?).

This ice will provide some resilience and we should keep an eye on the NASA maps to see how future seasons affect this ice mass.
I suppose a year with strong export comes and most of it can be flushed away, anyway...

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6090 on: September 12, 2020, 09:07:19 PM »
Probably not. We haven't had the teasing ups and downs yet.
mercator 0m temperature(SST) with amsr2-uhh sic overlay, jun1-sep11
Awesome graphic Uniquorn! Now add bathymetry as well if you can... because it seems I owe some people here an apology for saying that bathymetry didn't matter.  :-[

Not saying I was wrong! I am never wrong!!! ;D In the end it was still the salt water on the Atlantic, and the weather on the Pacific side that determined the eventual outcome of the ice edge... But I do have to admit that bathymetry caused a bigger pauze than I expected... Which would be logical of course because the salt water needs to fill up a bigger space in deeper water...

But how big is that "space"? If the underlying saltwater layer has risen from 150m to 80m, that space is getting smaller right? The Atlantic salt water has halve the volume to fill these days, and so this pauze that bathymetry is creating should be getting shorter, no?

It's alcohol day!  ;)
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6091 on: September 12, 2020, 09:10:50 PM »
Yes. In any case it is my opinion lots of ice within that triangle have survived ‘17 ‘18 and ‘19 (‘16 was a massacre for MYI, but much of it was exported to the CAA channels; wonder why the CAA ice has not melted out and the NW (main) passage didn’t open since at least 2015 iirc?).

This ice will provide some resilience and we should keep an eye on the NASA maps to see how future seasons affect this ice mass.
I suppose a year with strong export comes and most of it can be flushed away, anyway...
How could that MYI possible survive there for more than two years when it ends up on top of FYI every year? Just look at all those big floes that isolated themselves north of the New Siberian Islands a few weeks ago. Do you really think they will survive another season?
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 09:17:28 PM by Freegrass »
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gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6092 on: September 13, 2020, 01:00:38 AM »
Yes. In any case it is my opinion lots of ice within that triangle have survived ‘17 ‘18 and ‘19 (‘16 was a massacre for MYI, but much of it was exported to the CAA channels; wonder why the CAA ice has not melted out and the NW (main) passage didn’t open since at least 2015 iirc?).

This ice will provide some resilience and we should keep an eye on the NASA maps to see how future seasons affect this ice mass.
I suppose a year with strong export comes and most of it can be flushed away, anyway...
How could that MYI possible survive there for more than two years when it ends up on top of FYI every year? Just look at all those big floes that isolated themselves north of the New Siberian Islands a few weeks ago. Do you really think they will survive another season?
No I didn’t mean that. That ice at that location, it will be pushed toward the Fram or the Atlantic front during this winter and be gone next year.
The MYI that I believe will stay a bit longer is in the North American side, mostly.

cesium62

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6093 on: September 13, 2020, 01:35:29 AM »
Reminder that if 2012 wasn't a thing we'd all be blown away by this melting year. We are so far ahead of #3 in terms of extent.

We shouldn't be blown away.  This extent was predictable and predicted. https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/august

The narrative is not "omg, so much ice melted this year! What a surprise!".  The narrative is "Ayup.  a lot of ice melted this year, and probably a lot of ice will melt again next year.  Of course, we might get a once in 30 year perfect storm and a helluva lot of ice will then melt..."

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6094 on: September 13, 2020, 02:03:54 AM »
Jaxa

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2021 ....?

3 of the last 5 years 2nd place.

Pagophilus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6095 on: September 13, 2020, 04:09:26 AM »
Reminder that if 2012 wasn't a thing we'd all be blown away by this melting year. We are so far ahead of #3 in terms of extent.

We shouldn't be blown away.  This extent was predictable and predicted. https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/august

The narrative is not "omg, so much ice melted this year! What a surprise!".  The narrative is "Ayup.  a lot of ice melted this year, and probably a lot of ice will melt again next year.  Of course, we might get a once in 30 year perfect storm and a helluva lot of ice will then melt..."
Hey, we all tell the story in our own way and I think there is room both for grixm's perspective and for yours.  I think grixm was pointing out how much the 2020 extent has dipped below the lows of 2016 and 2019.  Sure, extent will keep going down over the decades, but it does bobble around a bit over the years.  Grixm's comment was about this year.  If we omit 2012, as grixm did, the 2020 minimum does, to my eyes, look dramatically low on the Charctic graph.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6096 on: September 13, 2020, 08:18:21 AM »
September 8-12.

2019.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6097 on: September 13, 2020, 09:15:50 AM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick
It’s more resilient than FYI under a meter.

That difference is more academic than practical, at 1m.

Quote
Anyway, the notion that Western CAB ice is homogeneously under a meter thick is misleading.
I can imagine a field of mixed floes of different thickness, surviving tall  ridges, ... the closer to CAA the thicker and older in average.

*Mostly* true, I'll agree, but I think you are overstating  how much of that melange is actually MYI and of significant thickness.

Quote
The region between the NP and the Beaufort sea has suffered surface melting but has stayed relatively protected compared to the other side of the NP. It stayed substantially colder during July even when it was 24/7 under the sun.
Now this 1 millon km2 of extent has several years of being stretched, exported to Beaufort sea or the CAA channels until it completely melts. It is a region of slow turnover time compared to the Gyre or the ice on the transpolar drift. It is a buffer against abrupt apocalypse scenarios.
You are making an awful lot of assumptions there, in the face of evidence - like the melt out of thick, MYI north of Greenland this year - which don't support your rosy interpretation of the ice's survivability.

Other posters have pointed out that Transpolar drift is broken.  The Gyre is broken.  Pretty much every mechanism we are used to watching and basing assumptions on, is broken.

And then there is the raw question of how much what we see in models is diverging from what's actually visible where we have "feet on the ground".

The only buffer we have against "sudden apocalypse" scenarios is the weather. 1 million km2 of 1m thick MYI or the equivalent simply doesn't have the thermal inertia to stop an apocalypse if the weather isn't cooperative.

The net enthalpy in the system has exploded, between additional solar uptake, and the huge inputs implied by the salinity data we see around Atlantification, as well as less dramatic inputs through the Bering strait on the Pacific side.

At this point, it really all hinges on seasonal uptake and existing heat.  Not extent.  Not area.  Not thickness.

We burned through ~15,000 km3 worth of ice this season already.  The ice you are citing (1,000,000 km2 of more or less 1m thick MYI) would represent less than 7% of that.

Even if I'm generous, and assume say, an average of 3m thickness, (which is VERY generous), we are talking about less than 20% of what has been lost this season already (PIOMAS figures).

It's not a bastion.  It's barely a cushion.  At best, averaged out, it's about 4 weeks of melt.  That's how thin a margin the Arctic pack's survival hinges on.

So back to my point... even if you are correct about quantity, at this stage in the evolution of the Arctic, it is weather, not ice volume which will determine any given year if we can avoid a BoE. 

That's been true pretty much since 2012.  Many of us have been holding our breath every year since 2012 in fear of a BoE.  So far, we've lucked out.  Increasingly, the deck is being stacked against us.

Some years ago, during one or another poll, I indicated that I thought there wouldn't be a BoE until sometime after 2029, and probably not before 2050.  At this point, I'll be surprised if we make it to 2029 *without* a BoE.  MYI won't help prevent it.

Weather will be the determinant of the pack's survival, not the existing ice.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2020, 11:36:44 PM by jdallen »
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Jontenoy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6098 on: September 13, 2020, 09:34:46 AM »
I totally agree JD. Very well put.  The energy in the system (enthalpy)  is gradually going up (for a certain date)  and a point will be reached when we have a BOE, then a few years of 2 million sq km and then maybe two years of a BOE in a row etc.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #6099 on: September 13, 2020, 10:02:33 AM »
I happen to agree with both. It seems that region gandul demarcated has the best surviving ice in the Arctic this year (in almost any year with no BOE there will be some region like this). It's better that this ice is where it is rather than in the more vulnerable Lincoln Sea or the Beaufort (or the Greenland Sea...). This ice will be the seed of some decent volume next year, and will need some unlucky weather to float away or melt in situ. However, the deck is progressively stacked against the ice and a serious melting season could do away with the whole lot. This one almost did, judging by the North Pole images we witnessed.