<snip> "now we are seeing Swisscheesification of the entire Arctic ..."
Question 1: Do those dark areas really indicate low concentration ice or does the sensor get fooled by moisture in the air column between surface and satellite? I am not proposing, just asking. Others have suggested that is the case. If so, note that at the far end of the 10-day GFS there is an incursion of moist air over the central CAB
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.pwtr. I was told by a climate scientist last year that such incursions were unusual, and that they contribute to localized warming, but take that as a second-hand anecdote from a less than perfect memory.
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<snip> Watch this map.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp
... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early. In fact in ways, I think it is worse. All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.
What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.
Hunch: The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.
Question 2: That is an interesting concept for a long-range predictor for September sea ice Extent. Is there historical analysis supporting that or something like it?
Which raises Question 3: In addition to waiting for each new GFS or EURO model run, are there any publically available multi-week or seasonal weather forecasts for the Arctic basin with useful skill? NOAA produces seasonal temp. and precip forecasts for the US that have useful skill out to several months for temp., and out to several weeks - 1 month for precip. These are not weather forecasts for what will happen on this or that day, but trends for the period as a whole. Having a skillful multi-week temperature or pressure forecast for the Arctic basin would be very interesting.
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GFS vs. EURO The differences between GFS and EURO are not that great, that's not me talking, it's Marshall Sheperd former president of American Met. Society, and him quoting the director of the EURO model.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/14/euro-vs-gfs-weather-model-wars-take-a-new-turn-in-march/#7c3625286c2b Look at the forecast correlation stats and you see that the EURO does do better overall, but that is not always the case, and in general the scores are within a few percentage points. GFS is pretty darned good so let's stop insulting it and by doing so dragging on the people who provide it. And there is considerable investment in new computers, data systems, modeling physics, human and other resources underway that bodes well for continued progress with the FV3-GFS platform that went online last June.
Of course, the EURO is not standing still either. Shepherd points out that the different met centers from around the world work closely together to help each other. That's the kind of cooperative competition we need to pull out of our global tailspin.
The number of satellite, doppler radar, and other technological developments in the past decade is amazing. If you need some good news, check out the COSMIC program.
It seems that the original COSMIC readings include the Arctic. Great to see a much-improved COSMIC-2 for the lower latitudes. Now we need a COSMIC-3 covering the polar regions. (Outside my wheelhouse, but I think that is possible) It's a matter of priorities not resources. Understanding and preserving a climate that supports human civilization should be a top priority. Pay for knowledge now or pay for damages later.