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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #50 on: March 20, 2020, 12:13:03 AM »
Welcome td.

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #51 on: March 20, 2020, 07:32:52 AM »
Let's not forget that if global land temps go down 1 C that is oftentimes 2-3 C for NH mid and high-latitudes plus cold outbreaks with late frosts that can kill any plants

Well, it's a good job the temperatures are going the other way then, right?

Oh yes, it works like that both ways. 3 C global average temperature rise will mean 6-9 C warmer winters in NH midlatitudes and 3-6 degress warmer summers. We will get there pretty soon...
Putin says good, at least Russians will have to buy fewer fur-coats...

(attached map shows 1C global temp anomaly vs 1950-1980 which implies 2-3 C warmer winters in NH mid and high latitude land)

meddoc

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #52 on: March 20, 2020, 09:15:03 AM »

Putin says good, at least Russians will have to buy fewer fur-coats...


What does Trumpeteer say? Politicians all play their part. There was a consensus reached at 2009 G20; it will be Bussiness as Ususal no matter what.
Then, the Yanks turned the tables, starting to deploy their ABMs/ nukes against Russia/ China.
Which clearly means they are not going to adhere to that consensus and just carry on- but trying to get an advantage in the coming collapse.

kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #53 on: March 20, 2020, 12:55:17 PM »
Lets keep to the ice...plenty of threads to talk politics in the subforums.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #54 on: March 21, 2020, 03:55:26 AM »
Lets keep to the ice...plenty of threads to talk politics in the subforums.

Thank you.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #55 on: March 21, 2020, 08:35:25 AM »
Kaleschke SIC leads, Fram funnel, mar10-21.
Worldview Terra Modis , Svalbard-FJL gap, mar10-20   https://go.nasa.gov/3bcw5O7
click to run
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 08:41:42 AM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #56 on: March 22, 2020, 10:05:15 AM »
A large area of the Chukchi Sea looking lightly frozen yesterday. https://go.nasa.gov/3a96hSQ
click for full resolution

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #57 on: March 22, 2020, 07:03:25 PM »
Sunday is movie time:

Let's start with Fram export.
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #58 on: March 22, 2020, 07:04:13 PM »
Last week's ice drift map.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #59 on: March 22, 2020, 07:05:11 PM »
7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #60 on: March 22, 2020, 08:43:02 PM »
That makes it a long time with very little Beaufort gyre movement
osi-saf, sep21-mar19

whoi itp112 drift track (deployed sep2019)
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 09:06:15 PM by uniquorn »

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #61 on: March 23, 2020, 02:04:17 AM »
Kaleschke SIC leads, Fram funnel, mar10-21.
Worldview Terra Modis , Svalbard-FJL gap, mar10-20   https://go.nasa.gov/3bcw5O7
click to run

Awesome. Can you make another one over the next 5 days? Lot of warmth coming up from the Atlantic, winds, several interesting dynamics at play.

The stratospheric polar vortex is also taking a ton of heat, looks like its going to start splitting/collapsing/whatever it does towards end of winter season over the next week.

Between the fringe ice, Bering, warmth coming up from Atlantic, the next 4-5 days could see 2020 right in the mix of things again. It's also been a very warm Jan-Feb globally.

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #62 on: March 23, 2020, 08:53:18 AM »
I'm very alarmed.
  There is a very important event occurring over the entire arctic currently!

The event is the extreme export if ice thru Fram St. in concert with ice import and bunches of relatively warm P water gushing through the Bering St.

There seems to have been so much export thru Fram, that, the way above normal amounts of warm P water are being sucked into the system.

I think the entire event is being fueled by wind.  I don't remember ever seeing such a persisent strong southerly wind down the Fram.  but, My experience in the wind physics of ice movement is basic, can anyone address what appears to be a >1% shift of the entire ice sheet to oblivion is a week????
Then look at the turbulence that the gushing warm P water has had on the north and south Chukchi Sea. Two large eddys are visible where i bet the salinity levels are high and the surface water temp is above 0C.

  In the attached image of the Bering St, the yellow areas indicate areas of wind caused import and the blue is the direction of the movement of surface turbulence, i think.
I am fearing that this early melting event can hurt the Arctic as a whole as bad as the imfamous 2012 late season wind event.
 
The second image is another focusing on the extreme melting currently occurring in Fram.

td
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #63 on: March 24, 2020, 04:20:44 AM »
On March 6th NSIDC sea ice area was 471k above the 2010s average. 16 days later and the same measure is 23k below its 2010s average. All the extra buffer carefully stashed away by the freezing season has vaporized and it's not even April.
It must always be kept in mind that the last sea ice area is in far peripheral seas, the four B's as I like to call them* which dictate max numbers, but which easily give up their ice once conditions reverse. So one should never draw too many conclusions about the melting season from the max area/extent.
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.

Rodius

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #64 on: March 24, 2020, 04:27:33 AM »
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.

Why not just call it very bad BBBO?

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #65 on: March 24, 2020, 04:56:35 AM »
During the cold dark Arctic night one must have some fun to keep one's sanity. Besides, the four B's thing absurdly helps me to recall the names more easily.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #66 on: March 24, 2020, 06:40:51 AM »
On March 6th NSIDC sea ice area was 471k above the 2010s average. 16 days later and the same measure is 23k below its 2010s average.
<snip>
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.
During the cold dark Arctic night one must have some fun to keep one's sanity. Besides, the four B's thing absurdly helps me to recall the names more easily.
I like it :)

That said, this drop highlights how the change in the quality of the ice is changing how the melt season progresses.

It is less about extent and area.

It is more about age, thickness and volume.

Most of the ice that's appeared this year in the Barents and Bering above and beyond what wasn't there the last few years is barely coherent, and doesn't have any ability to resist weather.

It will likely vanish like morning mist on a hot spring day.


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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #67 on: March 24, 2020, 06:43:44 AM »
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic.  That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #68 on: March 24, 2020, 07:14:26 AM »
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic.  That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.

Truly surprising the amount of less-than-full concentration in the Arctic itself.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #69 on: March 24, 2020, 12:05:12 PM »
An overview of sea ice movement as seen by ascat, jan1-mar23
The amsr2 low concentration area in/around the Beaufort correlates quite well with the darker area on ascat but may also be related to the recent heavy cloud cover.

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #70 on: March 24, 2020, 12:13:54 PM »
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic.  That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.

Perhaps last year's late freeze of the Chukchi made the ice in that area more vulnerable? In January, the thickness there was almost nonexistent, despite extent having recovered. I've attached the DMI's thickness map for January 1st 2020. Look at all that horribly weak purple in the Chukchi that's been blown into the CAB by Pacific winds.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #71 on: March 24, 2020, 12:55:56 PM »
Re Bremen image and Beaufort.

It didn't look so bad on the 19th compared to 22nd.

I wonder is it sensor related or is that Beaufort thinning real ?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #72 on: March 24, 2020, 01:01:25 PM »
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.

Why not just call it very bad BBBO?
Sea 3BO?
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El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #73 on: March 24, 2020, 01:18:12 PM »
Someone did some great charts during the last melting season based on Bremen, average and max thickness. It filtered out the day to day variation. We could use those once again.

However, there really does seem to be serious weakness from the Barents to the Laptev. I would not be surprised to see a record this year (esp. considering aerosols and the snowless winter in Eurasia)

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #74 on: March 24, 2020, 01:30:01 PM »
An overview of sea ice movement as seen by ascat, jan1-mar23
The amsr2 low concentration area in/around the Beaufort correlates quite well with the darker area on ascat but may also be related to the recent heavy cloud cover.
Thanks for this uniquorn. A most important animation.
It seems the Fram export was very active this winter, especially towards the end of the animation when the whole thing just slides to the exit. Not a good setup for the melting season.

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #75 on: March 24, 2020, 11:43:02 PM »
Re Bremen image and Beaufort.

It didn't look so bad on the 19th compared to 22nd.

I wonder is it sensor related or is that Beaufort thinning real ?

Climate Reanalyzer has shown the Beaufort and Bearing seas to be waaayyy warmer than usual over the last several weeks.  Here is today's anomaly;
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 12:09:08 AM by ReverendMilkbone »

Rodius

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #76 on: March 25, 2020, 04:32:05 AM »
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.

Why not just call it very bad BBBO?
Sea 3BO?

That put a smile on my face lol

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #77 on: March 25, 2020, 06:37:35 AM »
March 24th, 2020:
     13,824,816 km2, the 1st century drop of the melting season: -119,374 km2.
     2020 changed from 10th to 4th lowest on record.  :o
Damn!
Admittedly it's mostly random numbers at this point, but this one's a big move. The melting season has started quite vigorously. Should Fram export continue in earnest the random numbers may yet signal something for the summer.

As usual thank you to Juan and Gerontocrat for keeping us up to date on the other thread.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #78 on: March 25, 2020, 10:09:38 AM »
March 8-24.

2019.

Sourabh

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #79 on: March 25, 2020, 12:18:29 PM »
Does anyone know what impacts the lower air pollution (and cleaner sky in some parts of the world due to the on-going pandemic) might have on the ice? I am vaguely aware of hearing that airplanes form clouds that reflect sun light, which might be totally incorrect. But, if it is, then is it possible that we might seem record melt this year due to increased incoming radiations, keeping everything equal?

Apologies if my linking of both crises seems insensitive.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #80 on: March 25, 2020, 01:10:43 PM »
Sourabh:
That has been discussed on other threads.
The consensus seems to be that the pandemic will exacerbate AGW and sea ice loss.
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kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #81 on: March 25, 2020, 06:18:03 PM »
Basically it is an ongoing experiment.

We will see.

But who knows how much all the factors weight against each other.

One thing not to forget is how much we contribute with our regular day to day stufff.

The widget on the ASIF blog is at 2,853,860,000 hiroshima bombs of heat since 1998. That is our usual business.

On the long term the ice being thinner will make it more mobile with peripheral areas opening up early allowing ever more drift.

It´s going to be hard to tease apart but lets see what the ice does.

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HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #82 on: March 25, 2020, 08:06:34 PM »
Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.

You forgot St. Blawrence.

forkyfork

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #83 on: March 26, 2020, 12:40:34 AM »
no letup in the fram export pattern on today's EPS. click to animate

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #84 on: March 26, 2020, 02:54:38 AM »
RE revisiting the upthread discussion on crummy looking ice in the Beaufort Sea:
That said, this drop highlights how the change in the quality of the ice is changing how the melt season progresses.
It is less about extent and area.
It is more about age, thickness and volume.
Most of the ice that's appeared this year in the Barents and Bering above and beyond what wasn't there the last few years is barely coherent, and doesn't have any ability to resist weather.
It will likely vanish like morning mist on a hot spring day.
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic.  That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.

Re Bremen image and Beaufort.
It didn't look so bad on the 19th compared to 22nd.
I wonder is it sensor related or is that Beaufort thinning real ? 

 ArcticMelt2  ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg236503.html#msg236503 )
pointed out this study from August 2018 that seems relevant to the recent Beaufort observations:

Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice losses at the basin margins
BY MARY-LOUISE TIMMERMANS, JOHN TOOLE, RICHARD KRISHFIELD
SCIENCE ADVANCES29 AUG 2018 : EAAT6773
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6773
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/4/8/eaat6773.full.pdf
"Abstract
Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline warming. Heat absorption at the basin margins and its subsequent accumulation in the ocean interior, therefore, have consequences for Beaufort Gyre sea ice beyond the summer season."

Some images copied from the Timmermans et al study:



A press story about the Timmermans et al 2018 study is at
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-archived-deep-arctic-interior.html

"The upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has seen a two-fold increase in heat content over the past 30 years, the researchers said. They traced the source to waters hundreds of miles to the south, where reduced sea ice has left the surface ocean more exposed to summer solar warming. In turn, Arctic winds are driving the warmer water north, but below the surface waters.

"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said. "Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."  "

Related press article at
https://www.livescience.com/arctic-ice-refuge-vanishing.html

Finally this one (abstract only unless you have paywall access)
Spatiotemporal Variability of Sea Ice in the Arctic's Last Ice Area
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019GL083722



« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 03:06:25 AM by Glen Koehler »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #85 on: March 26, 2020, 08:03:54 AM »
Everyone who can must self-isolate.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #86 on: March 26, 2020, 11:03:20 AM »
There is evidence that the heat is there in the Beaufort from whoi itp114 but at 30m depth, with little visible mixing, it is unlikely to have a large impact at the moment. sep20-mar26
Salinity is steadily rising at 5m depth but that could be down to brine release from ice formation. 
click for full resolution. Day numbers at bottom of charts

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #87 on: March 26, 2020, 11:50:11 AM »
Yes the Timmerman's et al study is a very important one.

But also yes Uniquorn, I am struggling to see any other evidence that would back up the thinning in the central Beaufort.

I've perused much of the data available on the ESRL website but can't see anything to confirm concentration down to 75 % (as indicated by Bremen).
 
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #88 on: March 26, 2020, 12:44:59 PM »
I suspect that it is due to heavy cloud cover and/or other atmospheric conditions at this time of year. There was a similar discussion last year (and some before that)
Here is uni-hamburg mar31 2019 for comparison. It disappeared a few days later.
It is also visible on Aluminium's 2019 link above.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 01:02:42 PM by uniquorn »

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #89 on: March 26, 2020, 01:24:54 PM »
Polar vortex seems to be weakening (per Judah Cohen twitter feed), and the low-mid troposphere is showing changes in parallel, like this ridge reaching well into the Pacific side for a few days.
(Sunday forecast ECMWF).
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 01:30:28 PM by gandul »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #90 on: March 26, 2020, 01:42:48 PM »
I suspect that it is due to heavy cloud cover and/or other atmospheric conditions at this time of year.

Since it's moving around, i agree!
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #91 on: March 26, 2020, 05:53:45 PM »
Zack Labe reports unprecedented early rates of sea ice declines.

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1243211454121005057

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kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #92 on: March 26, 2020, 09:00:05 PM »
Look also at the Big Beast - the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea. Still totally inviolate and concentration (Area divided by Extent) at almost at 100% of absolute maximum.

It´s in a good spot but that is all surface. If you look at the multiyear ice disappearing/ the arms getting thinner that has consequences. The ice drifts more and who knows how much more energy comes into the system.

It all froze up a bit this freezing season but all gains are already gone.

There were some hints on the Mosaic thread about floes slamming together and making thick ice also below the water. This acts as anchors but i bet i happens much less then it used to do just because there is so much less thick ice slamming into each other. 
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johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #93 on: March 27, 2020, 10:31:02 AM »
I wonder if the accelerated losses pushing 2020 into second place are to do with tidal forcings around the near equinox new moon. I've looked for years for convincing evidence of tidal action on flows through Fram and Nares and although it's still ambiguous this is the first year there's any real sign of effects/influence on sea ice movement.
Looking at the thick ice west of CAA it always seems it should be more free flowing through the channels, once they clear, but the action around Mosaic indicates that the ice acts in synchrony with it's 'captive' still water directly beneath it which may add a couple of oom to it's inertial mass and thus it's the water beneath the shear line that moves through the channels, i think. If the gyre fires up and begins to cycle the thick ice through to Chukchi we may see only thin ice in this area, so substantially less mass to get moving and potentially much greater losses from the freshwater lens.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #94 on: March 27, 2020, 11:02:26 AM »
I wonder how long till I start reading “lowest area ever” in this thread like I was reading last year.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #95 on: March 27, 2020, 11:37:51 AM »
Following up on amsr2 ice concentration in the Beaufort. The present conditions perhaps alter or amplify surface reflections that are not normally visible since the sensor is picking up features that move with the ice, probably ridges. (Temporarily providing us with SIC ridges as opposed to SIC leads) Heavy contrast has been applied to the right hand image.

The second animation shows a more persistent low concentration area in the Laptev. We will find out soon enough if that is real or also an artifact of 'conditions'

unihamburg-amsr2uhh, beaufort, mar14-26 and ess/laptev, mar10-26

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #96 on: March 27, 2020, 02:17:39 PM »
There are a fair few leads sprinkled across the Beaufort Sea, but no widespread areas of reduced concentration. To my eyes at least:

https://go.nasa.gov/2vX84M6
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #97 on: March 27, 2020, 02:41:10 PM »
Perhaps those cracks vent enough humidity to saturate the air to confuse the sensors?
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tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #98 on: March 27, 2020, 03:57:54 PM »
not to beat a dead horse, but
 
Export in a southerly direction through Fram is still huge. and the melt in the eastern GS is still beyond huge (see image), although the warm water influx from the Pacific seems to have slowed somewhat.

Although it's too early to quantify, this past solid month of export and melt may have crippled the arctic sea ice's prospect of surviving as a whole through summer

This export and melt so early in the season portend to the scary prospect of open water at the pole this Sept. imho

thinking good thoughts, doing good deeds, enjoying good results - steve

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #99 on: March 27, 2020, 04:02:26 PM »