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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #150 on: April 01, 2020, 02:56:38 AM »
Is this the beaufort gyre that is starting up?
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #151 on: April 01, 2020, 05:00:28 AM »
We're half-way between peak tides  ...

Tides have no effect on Fram export. Tidal effects (other than a smooth up-and-down motion) are strictly limited to the narrow coastal strip, perhaps 10 meters max into open ocean. Swells and surges can happen in enclosed waters, but only on a scale of a few hundreds of meters.

If you think differently, you can start your own thread and explain your reasoning there.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #152 on: April 01, 2020, 07:42:23 AM »
Has anyone else noticed this odd protrusion between northern greenland and Svalbard island. It has been there for a while and it looks like it should just break off but it hasn't. Or is it normal?
I expect normal.  In past years, there would typically be a (much larger) bench of thicker, land-fast ice just to the south of that location, and it frequently was much larger.

Over the last 10-15 years, it generally starts breaking up around this time.  How it looks now isn't unusual at all.
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grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #153 on: April 01, 2020, 08:19:28 AM »
Has anyone else noticed this odd protrusion between northern greenland and Svalbard island. It has been there for a while and it looks like it should just break off but it hasn't. Or is it normal?

The ice is anchored to the seabed below. In 2012 there was a similar long and relatively thin protrusion, but even as it started to shatter in July, it still held on for a while even as the part connecting it to the mainland broke off: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=269947.6895835763,-1001118.4511475239,925307.6895835763,-656030.4511475239&p=arctic&t=2012-07-20-T10%3A00%3A00Z

You can see there is an area of shallow water around there too:

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #154 on: April 01, 2020, 08:21:50 AM »
moved to When Will Arctic Be Ice Free thread
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 03:21:09 PM by Glen Koehler »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #155 on: April 01, 2020, 09:03:52 AM »
Tidal effects (other than a smooth up-and-down motion) are strictly limited to the narrow coastal strip

You were wrong about this the last X-times you stated it and you are wrong now again. You can't think ice movement without also taking tides into account.

Therefore, the tide movements are absolutely not off-topic in this thread.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #156 on: April 01, 2020, 09:06:18 AM »
Good points Glen. My take on the linear vs. exponential (or other curved) declines is that the underlying decline is linear to the extent that it follows the near-as-makes-no-difference linear increase in global temperatures (so far).

On the other hand, I would expect acceleration at some point. So linear now, accelerate later. This is purely intuitive so I won't make any big claims!
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #157 on: April 01, 2020, 09:06:44 AM »
I expect normal.  In past years, there would typically be a (much larger) bench of thicker, land-fast ice just to the south of that location, and it frequently was much larger.

Or bottom-fast even?
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #158 on: April 01, 2020, 09:08:59 AM »
Tidal effects (other than a smooth up-and-down motion) are strictly limited to the narrow coastal strip

You were wrong about this the last X-times you stated it and you are wrong now again. You can't think ice movement without also taking tides into account.

Therefore, the tide movements are absolutely not off-topic in this thread.

So tell me how the tides move the ice! What research has been done on this pheomenon, and what are the particulars of the kinetic transfer from tidal movement to ice movement.

I have never seen anybody give any explanation for their strange fixation on tidal effects, so I will continue to claim that they do not exist.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #159 on: April 01, 2020, 09:13:22 AM »
The constant flow of low-pressure areas up the North Atlantic cause the exact same up-and-down movement as the tidal effect, due to changes in pressure. And changes in gravity (i.e. tidal effects) are of course de facto changes in pressure.

Nobody has ever claimed that this constant up and down movement due to low pressures moving over the surface can ever have any effect on the lateral movement of ocean waters (or surface ice), except for the purely coastal effect (the same as the tides).

So how does the tidal effect manage this?
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #160 on: April 01, 2020, 09:27:49 AM »
Last time we talked about this i gave you multiple GIFs illustrating and proving my point. You all dismissed them without counterargument. So no, i will not do it again.
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #161 on: April 01, 2020, 09:51:58 AM »
Last time we talked about this i gave you multiple GIFs illustrating and proving my point. You all dismissed them without counterargument. So no, i will not do it again.

I remember those gifs. There was no point in responding to them because they either showed the coastal effect. Which I keep saying is real, but of no importance since it only reaches a very short distance away from the coast. Or they were not really conclusive, more a question of wanting to see something.

Besides, the coastal effect is mostly back-and-forth movement caused by the up-and-down movement in shallow waters, and should therefore have an extremely limited (if any) effect on the movement of ice and water in the open ocean.

The open ocean, thousands of kilometers from side to side, is what we are talking about here. And the lateral movement of ice (and water) in the open ocean does not fluctuate with the tides.

HOWEVER!!!!!

Long-term movements of ocean currents ARE effected by the tidal pull of the moon. So the effect is not non-existent in the open ocean, but it is NOT a fluctuating effect. In other words, no research i've found indicates that changes in tidal movement on a daily or monthly basis has any discernible effect.

The existence of tides has a constant effect, not a fluctuating effect, changes in the tides on a daily or monthly  basis does not effect the large scale state of the ice in the Arctic Ocean.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #162 on: April 01, 2020, 10:03:13 AM »
Binntho, does the word "bathymetry" ring a bell?

I have news for you: Bathymetry is all over the place.
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Hopen Times

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #163 on: April 01, 2020, 10:16:55 AM »
Binntho, how do you define shallow waters and how far from the coast do you think you can observe the coastal effect?

johnm33

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #164 on: April 01, 2020, 10:24:58 AM »
'Tides' I'm busy but I'll make my case later on unsorted.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #165 on: April 01, 2020, 10:37:28 AM »
I have never seen anybody give any explanation for their strange fixation on tidal effects, so I will continue to claim that they do not exist.
I used to go fishing with my dad in the north sea, with a zodiac. And I remember it like it was yesterday, that very first time we threw anker. It was amazing! The current was so powerful that it was like we were still driving the boat.

So tides do move a lot of water. Especially in between islands, because that's where the tide is held up, creating a bulge of water that needs to squeeze through those islands.

I'm also a diver. I dived the kilima drift. One of the fastest drift dives in the world. I really have no idea why anyone would ever say that tides don't move water laterally. It's the most natural thing of all...
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:43:29 AM by Freegrass »
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #166 on: April 01, 2020, 10:57:26 AM »
A gentle request to posters:
Last time the tide subject was discussed in here, there were endless examples and posts all arguing against binntho's point. Which did nothing to convince him.
I suggest that binntho or some other good soul open a thread for the effect of tides on currents and sea ice, and let all the endless re-posts be done there.
Otherwise, I suggest to ignore the claim that tides do nothing. It will surely derail this thread.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #167 on: April 01, 2020, 11:26:57 AM »
There is also a thread When will the Arctic Go Ice Free? where I thought discussions about the BOE were to be held.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg253549.html#msg253549

Surely the 2020 melting season thread is about 2020? And 2020 will not see a BOE anyway - with ideal melting conditions maybe 1.5 million km2 below trend@ 2.5 million km2.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #168 on: April 01, 2020, 12:12:07 PM »
March 22-31.

2019.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #169 on: April 01, 2020, 12:23:03 PM »
At the risk of drifting off topic, there is currently an unprecedented "ozone hole" above the North Pole:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2020/#Apr-01

Quote
Researchers measure ozone levels by releasing weather balloons from observing stations around the Arctic (including the Polarstern icebreaker, which is frozen in sea ice for a year-long expedition). By late March, these balloons measured a 90% drop in ozone at an altitude of 18 kilometres, which is right in the heart of the ozone layer. Where the balloons would normally measure around 3.5 parts per million of ozone, they recorded only around 0.3 parts per million.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #170 on: April 01, 2020, 01:00:53 PM »
A gentle request to posters:
Last time the tide subject was discussed in here, there were endless examples and posts all arguing against binntho's point. Which did nothing to convince him.
I suggest that binntho or some other good soul open a thread for the effect of tides on currents and sea ice, and let all the endless re-posts be done there.
Otherwise, I suggest to ignore the claim that tides do nothing. It will surely derail this thread.
Here's the thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3030.0.html
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #171 on: April 01, 2020, 01:17:11 PM »
I started to download ozone pictures as an addition for my weekly Sunday movies premiering next Sunday.

Jim, why do you think it's off-topic? Should i use another thread to post them?
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #172 on: April 01, 2020, 03:23:01 PM »
Deleted Confidence interval posts.  Will move to "When will Arctic Go Ice Free" later.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #173 on: April 01, 2020, 03:54:49 PM »
Deleted Confidence interval posts.  Will move to "When will Arctic Go Ice Free" later.
Thanks, Glen.

Every so often I go to the "When will Arctic Go Ice Free" to see new ideas and methodologies on the BOE question. When one posts BOE things like yours on this thread it often quickly gets lost in the "noise" of numerous posts about the current season.

I, for one, hope you repost this stuff onto the BOE thread ASAP. They were great. I am sort of gradually building up a new set of data on area, extent and volume, also splitting the 14 seas into the High Arctic Seas (i.e. the Arctic Ocean proper as defined by Nico Sun in his AWP models)) and the Peripherals.

Maybe this could be plugged into your equations?

Cheers,

Gero

 
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 04:01:13 PM by gerontocrat »
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tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #174 on: April 01, 2020, 04:15:17 PM »
hiyas,

this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged.  But, as a  response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?

I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.

td
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philopek

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #175 on: April 01, 2020, 06:35:40 PM »
hiyas,

this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged.  But, as a  response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?

I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.

td

google is your friend (in such cases)  :)

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/southerlies

https://www.google.com/search?q=southerlies&oq=southerlies&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.7865j1j3&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #176 on: April 01, 2020, 09:09:33 PM »
Jim, why do you think it's off-topic?

Personally I think the ozone hole is sufficiently on topic in here, although perhaps actually more suited to the "freezing season" thread if that were still active?

Certainly more on topic here than certain other recent posts!
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #177 on: April 01, 2020, 09:29:44 PM »
hiyas,

this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged.  But, as a  response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?

I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.

td

A North Wind is a wind blowing from the North. Of course, anything going from North is going to the opposite direction of North, AKA South.
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tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #178 on: April 01, 2020, 10:22:52 PM »
hi yall,
 
I made the transition from lurker to new ice primarily because I felt it necessary to bring focus upon the, imho, extreme melt event occurring in the Greenland Sea.
Now, after watching oren's outstanding 10 yr movie of the Fram area (I dled it and i download little that I come across outside urls)many times, I noted that there appeared to be an export into the Barents Sea of a much more extreme volume of 'old' ice than any that occurred in 2010-11, '13, '14' and '17 (the years in which there was significant export visible).

The thing is, ALL ice that is exported melts in the summer, and there is a significantly above normal % of the CAB being exported right this minute! and this event has been going for 45 days and we have six (6) more months of melt!

I recognize that the wind and other conditions may change, but since mid Feb, sea ice has been forced out of the CAB into the Barents and Greenland seas at rates that I have never before seen in my limited experience.  It is true that one's eyes sometimes deceive them, but in this case, I think not.

I urge all of you to notice this truly extreme melt event that has unfolded and maybe use its example to convince others that the time to talk about the BOE occurring has passed.  It's now time to mitigate the short-sighted views of some of our political leaders and really, ourselves.  Now is the time to act even if all you can do is lead by example when we choosing future leaders.

I'm not much of an activist, but when I see a problem, I address it, even if I don't possess the reviewed evidence to submit a formal paper.  I never claimed to be a scientist.  I'm just an average man that knows that we, the members of ASIF and its lurkers, must act, at the best of our abilities, to spread the word that the continued assault on nature really can only have a bad ending for humanity.

I've (i hope) done my good deed for the day by illuminating a cause of concern and offering a (hackneyed) way to help alleviate it....  Should anyone, especially neven, disagree with me, I am always open to new data and correction if necessary. 

I will entertain all ideas, suggestions, and criticism toward my efforts in making a better future for my living grandchildren and the greatgrandchildren that will be arriving in just a few years.

peace

my apologies if I'm 'preaching to the choir'

td


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kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #179 on: April 01, 2020, 11:37:50 PM »
The whole setup did not look too well (see post 3 or 4 or so for the picture).

I wish i had a better feel for the numbers but i don´t. There are fram export numbers in the Wipneus Piomas data thread so we will see eventually.

Don´t know how long you have been lurking but years vary. Some get off to an amazing start and then nothing happens in summer and years start slow and then turn amazing (see ASIF blog 2012 climate dominoes posts f.e.).

In general we can conclude that the ice is not in great shape from the picture mentioned above, snippits from Mosaic and the way the impressive extent numbers got wiped out quickly while all the time you could see more action in area then usual during melt season (but this could just be my impression only really started paying detailed attention last few years).

I really think that more mobile ice and drift of whatever is left could become interesting at some point but it very much depends on how things continue. What seas will open early? Will there be unusual storms (mixing up deep warm water etc).

I bet it is going to be an interesting year.
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kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #180 on: April 02, 2020, 01:38:39 AM »
#Gerontocrat

I have wondered if you have a file with all the daily changes in Area ever (since current format) and do these show more movement over the years? (same for extent but it should be less?).

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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #181 on: April 02, 2020, 01:41:49 AM »
Now, after watching oren's outstanding 10 yr movie of the Fram area (I dled it and i download little that I come across outside urls)many times, I noted that there appeared to be an export into the Barents Sea of a much more extreme volume of 'old' ice than any that occurred in 2010-11, '13, '14' and '17 (the years in which there was significant export visible).
Sometimes the images can be misleading. We can see that more ice is being export, at the same time that the ice volume export is not that high. Why? Because we are seeing more area moving, but with thinner ice than other years.

P.S. Maybe I saw another movie, what I saw is Uniquorn movie...
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 01:57:33 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #182 on: April 02, 2020, 01:54:30 AM »
Now, after watching oren's outstanding 10 yr movie of the Fram area (I dled it and i download little that I come across outside urls)many times, I noted that there appeared to be an export into the Barents Sea of a much more extreme volume of 'old' ice than any that occurred in 2010-11, '13, '14' and '17 (the years in which there was significant export visible).
Sometimes the images can be misleading. We can see that more ice is being export, at the same time that the ice volume export is not that high. Why? Because we are seeing more area moving, but with thinner ice than other years.
True, but the little that is left of the MYI is going down the drain together with that thin ice.
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Juan C. García

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #183 on: April 02, 2020, 02:00:48 AM »
Sometimes the images can be misleading. We can see that more ice is being export, at the same time that the ice volume export is not that high. Why? Because we are seeing more area moving, but with thinner ice than other years.
True, but the little that is left of the MYI is going down the drain together with that thin ice.
Yes. I think that the first time that we will see a BOE, the ice exported will play an important role. I'm just questioning what is happening now. I am not expecting a big ice export number in March.
« Last Edit: April 02, 2020, 02:09:26 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #184 on: April 02, 2020, 02:11:28 AM »
But now redo that as total vol vs exported.

It has been ages since i watched ice die live but i used to live near a park and watching it in the last day was interesting.

Older ice which runs into more old ice can make really big bumps either up or down. The down bumps are like fins slowing down the movement of the ice (usually). They can be impressively big (there is an example on the mosaic thread but i cannot recall the actual post or page). 

We can only imagine how they would have looked last decade or this decade because no one thought it was worthwhile to fund a proper science project looking at the arctic (relatively cheap compared to whatever we spent on armies and banks).

There is this interplay between Vol Ext and Are. Now area going down with volume basically means a more mobile ice pack.

The data will do what it used to do until some underlying fundamentals change.

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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #185 on: April 02, 2020, 02:18:04 AM »
Now, after watching oren's outstanding 10 yr movie of the Fram area (I dled it and i download little that I come across outside urls)many times, I noted that there appeared to be an export into the Barents Sea of a much more extreme volume of 'old' ice than any that occurred in 2010-11, '13, '14' and '17 (the years in which there was significant export visible).
I agree, ice from the direction of the Pole moved farther this year than in other years. However, this was indeed uniquorn's animation, I am just a promoter of these movies.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #186 on: April 02, 2020, 07:27:25 AM »
Bashing peoples' pet theories is never going to make one popular, and having a low silliness tolerance threshold can be a curse.

My current tidal rant started when somebody rambled on about visible changes in Fram export being somehow linked to the tides. Total rubbish in my mind, as are similar claims that have been made previously.

Gifs and anectdotes are not evidence in this case. There is absolutely no science to back up the Fram export/tide effect, there are is no data, there are no chains of causality that can be brought to bear to support such claims.

Somebody mentioned the bathymetry thing above. That was another frequently banded-about pet theory that many people referred to but did not really seem to understand. At least, nobody was able to explain what they were talking about when pushed. Eventually a few of the more knowledgable of the members managed to piece together the scientific evidence and the data (and I did a lot of research myself) and the bathymetry thing was resolved - I accepted that it was a real thing in very many areas of the Arctic, and I hope that some others managed to understand why that is the case. Was forcing people to look at the science behind their claims such a bad idea? Perhaps if this was the forum of a religious cult, yes, but not in a forum for scientific discourse.

The same goes for the tidal debacle. My own research into the matter has not turned up the least iota of support for a large scale and fluctuating tidal effect on ice movement in the open ocean. Nobody on this forum has been able to show any supporting evidence. The ongoing Mosaic expedition would be a prime example - have they ever mentioned tidal effects on the movement of ice around their vessel? Not that I've seen.

Pointing out your previous failure to provide evidence, and me still going on about it, does not make me more likely to accept your claims. I'll move my own rants over to the newly created tidal group, and I look forward to the company of anybody who would want to join me there in the sport of exasperating and irritating each other.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #187 on: April 02, 2020, 07:32:03 AM »
binntho, there is a thread for that now. You might ignore the science there.
Unlearn things daily.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #188 on: April 02, 2020, 07:43:06 AM »
binntho, there is a thread for that now. You might ignore the science there.
You might try reading what people post!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #189 on: April 02, 2020, 08:56:02 AM »
Thank you binntho.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #190 on: April 02, 2020, 01:57:27 PM »
Cracks are starting to show along Beaufort coast, may develop further near McKenzie Delta given the forecast. (Yesterday's Worldview Terra visible)

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #191 on: April 03, 2020, 01:01:43 AM »
I hope my contributions help someone.

  Pls, note the activity in the Bering st.  There is another pulse of warm water entering the CAB. I haven't learned how to make a gif, but one of the last week would illustrate my point.

I call it as i see it.  Others may see it differently or question the validity of what I see and communicate.  Oh well...

I do know for a fact that the whole CAB is a relatively thin layer of water in which seiche activity and its attendant force transfer is real.  And if one jams water through the Bering as is happening now, it has to drain.  Unfortunately, it carries lots of sea ice with it as it is forced through the Fram. I see more than normal though I recognize that specifics cannot be easily derived from the movie and it is somewhat subjective for me to speculate.

The charts and graphs available here are great and many people put large efforts into their accuracy.  But, my eyes are not deceiving me.  There are very large forces involved in moving that much water.

If I might ask, when a wave enters through the Bering Strait, how long does the energy of that wave take to reach the Nares?  3,000 km, a few days? attached is an image of such a wave from 2 days ago.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2691064.456174864,1073468.9659112212,-1572856.456174864,1597756.9659112212&p=arctic&t=2020-03-31-T22%3A32%3A16Z



 as the melt event continues in the Greenland sea



td

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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #192 on: April 03, 2020, 06:28:24 AM »
Hi, it's been a bit since I've been here (been just sad af about covid 19).

ANYWAYS, there are a number of items I'm really interesting in seeing this season, or if they remain a carryover from last year. The first, and most prominent, being the massive crack above Greenland (which actually amazed me last year). Second, I will be interested to see if more upwelling from the Bering Sea is exacerbated by the late refreeze. Lastly, I wonder how robust the export in the Fram will be.

Not to mention, to my eye, I think this will either be a neutral, or very, very slight la nina year. And will reduced pollution have an affect on albieto?

I'm going to try to follow this as much as possible amidst everything else going on in the sad state of the world
pls!

interstitial

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #193 on: April 03, 2020, 07:34:41 AM »
<snip>
Not to mention, to my eye, I think this will either be a neutral, or very, very slight la nina year.  <snip>

Oni index
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
Year   DJF   JFM   FMA   MAM   AMJ   MJJ   JJA   JAS   ASO   SON   OND   NDJ
2019   0.8   0.8   0.8   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.5
2020   0.5                                 
The working NOA definition for el nino is +0.5 or greater for five consecutive three month averages so it might develop a very slight el nino but the earliest it could be classified la nina is after August.

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #194 on: April 03, 2020, 11:19:22 AM »
Extreme Fram export continues:

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #195 on: April 03, 2020, 12:40:57 PM »
     ONI3.4 forecast (sea surface temperature in equatorial region of Pacific Ocean used to estimate ENSO El Nino / La Nina cycle) are updated monthly on 3rd Thursday at
 https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #196 on: April 03, 2020, 01:46:48 PM »
Around this time of year I usually take a screenshot of the ESRL Ice thickness assessment. Here are the years 2018, 2019 compared with forecast thickness 7th April 2020. (not on exact same dates but within +/- 1 week).

It does n't augur well for the coming summer.

The legend is the same for each chart with max pink colour indicating thickness of 1.6m or more. For resistence against the Arctic melt season you would be hoping for pink colour spread across the whole Arctic by now. But we are far from that.

Four areas in particular have thicknesses a lot lower than previous years:

1. Kara

Very thin and expect it will melt out quickly this year. Maybe not as crucial as other areas as it usually melts out every year anyway. Having said that an early melt would not be good for preserving ice in the main basin.

2. Polarstern

(dubbed this area - after where the Polarstern research vessel started out last Autumn). This area is near the heart of the basin and is thin. As much of the good ice heads south into the Fram, outlook for this area is not good at all. Could we see the ice edge retreat back to the pole this year with most of the ice only on the American side and maybe a typical arm heading out towards the ESS ?

3. Western Beaufort/Northern Chukchi

Thinner than usual. Legacy of late freeze ups, Pacific infiltration. This century these areas melt out every year but like the Kara an early melt out would make for an aggressive melt attack on the Basin.

4. Laptev

A lot thinner than usual. Legacy of the record mild winter over Russia. Expect an early appearance of the Laptev polynya and maybe eventually melting back to the pole ?


Ktb

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #197 on: April 03, 2020, 04:08:58 PM »
Wind in excess of 50 kph pushing ice out the Fram. Greater than 55 kph north of Greenland moving ice in that direction as well.
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tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #198 on: April 03, 2020, 08:43:22 PM »
.

philopek,
ty so much for the dictionary link.  You had a positive effect on my model of reality.  I recognized something new for me.  That is an increased understanding of the importance of context.  The word, 'southerly,' can be the source of confusion, so I will use 'southward' in the future.  I actually enjoy revising my model to better reflect the realities of nature.  Intuitively, I had assumed my knowledge, as a trained linguist, of the word was correct.  My intuition was wrong.

grixm,
 I have been wondering about the remaining fast ice in NE Greenland.  Thanks so much for providing the data that really shows why it persists, ie, it is attached, probably, to the bottom.  This agrees with my intuition.

I was going to list everyone that has impacted my thinking by their posts on this blog in the last few days, but the list is so long, and in some respects, i am so lazy, i will just say thanks to yall and keep the data and analysis coming!  It is appreciated.

While I'm dishing out compliments, let me thank binntho in particular.  I admire his ability to take a stand for veracity as well as his avoidance of direct personal attacks.  The calming and beneficial aspect of bringing other's heads down has a value.  Suggestions that a view may be skewed are beneficial because it creates closer scrutiny of the problem at hand enabling a better overall understanding.  So, binntho, TY for bringing my head down.  May I return the favor.


peace

td


« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 09:13:34 PM by tybeedave »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #199 on: April 03, 2020, 09:13:20 PM »
hiyas,

this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged.  But, as a  response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?

I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.

td

A North Wind is a wind blowing from the North. Of course, anything going from North is going to the opposite direction of North, AKA South.
The convention is the wind direction is named for where the wind is coming from. But in the Arctic I am often confused.

When the wind (as it sometimes does) starts in Siberia, heads across the Arctic Ocean and reaches the North American or Greenland shores, it starts as a South wind, & after crossing the pole becomes a North Wind. Even worse is when the wind and ice shifts from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side very close to 0 / 180 longitude. One moment its on the Russian side heading West, and in the blink of an eye crosses that longitude and is heading East. Polarstern did that.
___________________________________________________
ps: I have posted now & then that there is no correlation between JAXA sea ice extent at maximum and the subsequent minimum. I thought I would have a closer look to see if a link between a high or low maximum and a following high or low minimum exists.

So here are two graphs of deviations in March & September from the linear trend. The first is a column graph by year, the second an XY graph.

EDIT - Graphs not done well. New versions posted.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 09:29:00 PM by gerontocrat »
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