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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #200 on: April 04, 2020, 01:29:16 AM »
Dave, I wish you had posted your long binntho-related missive in the new Tides thread. Here it will only generate more endless discussion, and to no avail.

El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #201 on: April 04, 2020, 07:46:05 AM »
Around this time of year I usually take a screenshot of the ESRL Ice thickness assessment. Here are the years 2018, 2019 compared with forecast thickness 7th April 2020.
It does n't augur well for the coming summer.
....

Very nice pictures Niall! Confirms what I see on the Bremen maps: unusual weakness from Barents to Kara/Laptev and also on the Alaskan side. It will be very hard to dodge that bullet this year

HapHazard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #202 on: April 04, 2020, 08:03:57 AM »
Indeed. Thanks for that post, N.D.

charles_oil

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #203 on: April 04, 2020, 11:39:52 AM »

Yes - enjoyed ND post - thanks - once I worked out orientation ;)  - very worrying and worth watching - is this possible as a monthly / bi-monthly analysis (pretty please... ) ?

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #204 on: April 04, 2020, 12:05:52 PM »
Thanks for those comments Charles, HapHazard and El Cid.

I don't mind doing more when I can but I'm limited in that I havent taken that many screenshots from other years (unfortuantely).

Next one I have is May 1st 2018. So I could do a comparison this year with that one.

Just looking back at last year and the chart for 13th April 19 still showed a lot of pink - and we all know what happened after that.

This is what makes me all the more concerned this year, that we are only barely starting the melt season and condition is poor in many areas, especially the Russian side.

It will be interesting to see the next PIOMAS volume update to end of March. I imagine there won't be much of an increase on the mid-March and we are very near the volume max for the year,   

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #205 on: April 04, 2020, 03:06:18 PM »
Thanks for those comments Charles, HapHazard and El Cid.

I don't mind doing more when I can but I'm limited in that I havent taken that many screenshots from other years (unfortuantely).

Next one I have is May 1st 2018. So I could do a comparison this year with that one.

Just looking back at last year and the chart for 13th April 19 still showed a lot of pink - and we all know what happened after that.

This is what makes me all the more concerned this year, that we are only barely starting the melt season and condition is poor in many areas, especially the Russian side.

It will be interesting to see the next PIOMAS volume update to end of March. I imagine there won't be much of an increase on the mid-March and we are very near the volume max for the year,

I do think the ESS and Laptev seas need watching this year, there is not much fast ice this year(because of the positive AO) so all ready we got less protection to the main ice pack itself all ready. Of course if the winds keep blowing off the Russian landmass then we may see early open water appearing like we did in the ESS in 2017 where it was unprecedented just how much open water there was so early in the melt season.

I Also think last year we will have a stall in the volume charts because of export and extent loss, hopefully it won't be a sign of things to come!

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #206 on: April 04, 2020, 09:17:14 PM »
oren, better yet, i deleted most of it, my bad, subject closed

td
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Ktb

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #207 on: April 05, 2020, 12:20:15 PM »
Nullschool says there is water in the Beaufort, north of Yukon/Northwest Territories.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #208 on: April 05, 2020, 12:53:20 PM »
1.7°C reported in the Laptev sea for next week. Long way out, but things are really starting to heat up in Russia in the coming days.

In Belgium, we're already doing summer temperatures for the coming week.  ???

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/0900Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-42.14,101.34,3000/loc=115.536,73.901
Now let's pray...

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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #209 on: April 05, 2020, 02:26:36 PM »
The Ob River wakes up.


Davidsf

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #210 on: April 05, 2020, 02:43:41 PM »
That's impressive video footage of the Ob River, Aluminum. Thank you for sharing it. Do you know if this is an early melt onset?

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #211 on: April 05, 2020, 03:06:59 PM »
Mid April is more usual for this. Ice is thin and easy to break after warm winter.

Sublime_Rime

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #212 on: April 05, 2020, 05:23:20 PM »
Nullschool says there is water in the Beaufort, north of Yukon/Northwest Territories.

Yep, worldview yesterday and today confirms an early opening in the Beaufort.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #213 on: April 05, 2020, 05:57:30 PM »
Bee in My Bonnet - Small rant follows.

As the melting season progresses there will be much talk and comparisons with 2012.  Wrong year!

If you look at the attached first graph you will see that 2016 was the year that mattered most (apart from a brief spurt in 2012 at the end of the melt season).

If you look at the second graph of 365 day trailing averages, you will see that the 2016 continuous long melt and slow freeze resulted (in March 2017) in the record low average. i.e. Looking at the entire year, 2016 had the lowest amount of sea ice by far - an average of 400,000 km2 for every day of the year less than the 2012 record low (in Jan 2013).

2012 was a shooting star - phut, & it was gone. 2016 was the steady burn that really matters.

The same result shows for extent & volume - see graphs 3 & 4.
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #214 on: April 05, 2020, 06:19:18 PM »
The Sunday movies gave birth to a new type of movie.

The Ozone layer via Copernicus!

The scale is in Dobson Units (DU)
Quote
A dobson unit is the most basic measure used in ozone research.One Dobson Unit (DU) is defined to be 0.01 mm thickness at STP (standard temperature and pressure). Ozone layer thickness is expressed in terms of Dobson units, which measure what its physical thickness would be if compressed in the Earth's atmosphere. In those terms, it's very thin indeed. A normal range is 300 to 500 Dobson units, which translates to an eighth of an inch-basically two stacked pennies.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 06:31:38 PM by blumenkraft »

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #215 on: April 05, 2020, 06:20:38 PM »
Ice drift map shows the CAA gave up its staticness this week.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #216 on: April 05, 2020, 06:22:12 PM »
7-day temperature anomalies. The Arctic runs hot! Canada still very cold.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #217 on: April 05, 2020, 06:23:43 PM »
Saturday to Saturday (because Sunday flight paths are bitchy recently) Fram export via SAR.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #218 on: April 05, 2020, 07:38:29 PM »
Quote
2012 was a shooting star - phut, & it was gone. 2016 was the steady burn that really matters.
But there could be another shooting star in 202X. This will be at least as likely to be the first BOE as is a gradual drop down year by year.
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Stephan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #219 on: April 05, 2020, 09:43:19 PM »
Quote
2012 was a shooting star - phut, & it was gone. 2016 was the steady burn that really matters.
But there could be another shooting star in 202X. This will be at least as likely to be the first BOE as is a gradual drop down year by year.
There will be another (at least one) shooting star in 202X, including the first BOE year.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #220 on: April 06, 2020, 12:41:53 PM »
Here's the latest update on near real time CryoSat-2/SMOS "measured" Arctic sea ice volume:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2020/#Apr-06

Quote
I’ve applied a crude correction to the still problematic NRT data so that it at least coincides with the reanalysed data on March 14th. Whilst we await the reanalysed numbers for the rest of March and early April it looks as though Arctic sea ice volume reached at least a temporary peak on March 20th 2020.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #221 on: April 06, 2020, 03:48:50 PM »
The difference just one week makes in the Beaufort sea. Click to play

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #222 on: April 06, 2020, 06:06:34 PM »
Comparison of 2020 vs. 2019

tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #223 on: April 07, 2020, 03:44:08 AM »
really great and significant data flower man,

I'm happy to see the visual decrease in export.  i fear that the mass of old ice replaced by new ice, in the hopefully past 45 day export/wind event, is over.  it appears that even a moderately warm spring will cause widespread melt that will be more apparent in gerontocrat's and others' charts and graphs as the weeks pass maybe.

we may have just witnessed a blow to the CAB on par with the late storm of '12.  i hope not, but i fear so, but what i believe means nothing...how much do you think this event, that reached from the Atlantic to the Pacific, inclusive, had on the minimum?    .thoughts?

td
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #224 on: April 07, 2020, 12:14:53 PM »
Persistent east winds have caused open water to appear in the eastern Hudson Bay. This is early in the season for break up.

I presume if winds turn west or northwest again this would close in ?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #225 on: April 07, 2020, 01:22:18 PM »
Wipneus amsr2-uhh regional extent(blue) and area(yellow), baffin/st.lawrence/hudson, mar5

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #226 on: April 07, 2020, 02:48:08 PM »
it appears that even a moderately warm spring will cause widespread melt that will be more apparent in gerontocrat's and others' charts and graphs as the weeks pass maybe.

With the economy worldwide nearly shutdown and ground and air travel a fraction of what it normally is, emissions are dropping dramatically and, along with this, the effects of global shading or dimming. I expect us to have the hottest summer on record in the NH.

dnem

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #227 on: April 07, 2020, 03:41:20 PM »
We had a crystalline clear day yesterday here in the US mid-Atlantic coastal region. Last night Venus shown as clear and bright as I can remember.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #228 on: April 07, 2020, 05:50:21 PM »
A lot of Euro -American air traffic flies over Ireland . Normally there are several planes in the air over us at any one time . The most I have seen is 13 . Today , like most days lately there is 1 nearly every hour . As I keep pointing out to the anti-con trail lobby .. their prayers have been answered by CV19 .. b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

charles_oil

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #229 on: April 07, 2020, 05:57:25 PM »

Sorry - off-topic quick reply - see https://planefinder.net/ to see the relative plane density over Europe … vs USA where skies look pretty busy!


PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #230 on: April 07, 2020, 06:07:58 PM »
Methinks the US still isn't taking this seriously...

Anyway, back to ice discussion. I still think we're overestimating the effects of aerosol cooling on polar regions. Increasing the sun's power slightly won't do much where the sun is barely shining anyway, especially compared to the usual effects of heat trapping. That said, we may get a nasty melt season anyway due to the incredible amount of Fram export and thin ice in and around the Chukchi.
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IceConcerned

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #231 on: April 07, 2020, 06:45:31 PM »
But even if we get this extra cooling only at mid latitude that extra heat so generated will have to go somewhere, I would expect some movement northwards that would bring this melting force to the Arctic

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #232 on: April 07, 2020, 09:23:38 PM »
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?

IIRC it's because the thin ice is removed. Let's say you have a set of 7 blocks of ice with thickness 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 3.1. The average thickness here is 1.1 arbitrary units. Then, you have a nasty melt that takes 1 unit of thickness away from all the blocks. Now you only have 2 blocks (0.2, 2.1) with an average thickness of 1.15, as the other 5 blocks are gone.
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

LeftyLarry

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #233 on: April 07, 2020, 09:41:10 PM »
Methinks the US still isn't taking this seriously

As a humanitarian gesture the U.S. decided to allow American citizens abroad to return home to be with family and receive medical care if and when needed.
Unfortunately, one of the political parties refuses to allow changes to the chain migration laws under which non- citizen family members can come into the country to be reunited with existing American citizens.
My understanding is that from China alone 40,000 have been “repatriated”  to the U.S. to be with their brothers, cousins, uncles, grandparents etc. since the pandemic began.
The migration continues, even with the virus in the background.
Add that to the movement of consumer goods, food and medical equipment being sent from places with low virus issues to States where help is needed quickly and yes, the planes are still flying, though many less.
Many parts of the States are already beginning to see a flattening of the curve in regards to new cases and yes, it’s being taken very seriously in the U.S.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #234 on: April 07, 2020, 10:29:48 PM »
Comparison of 2020 vs. 2019
There was a lot of ice pushed into the barents sea this winter. That explains the larger extent there. But overall, that's actually a bad thing, because the barents will melt out anyway. The problem is that this is ice that's been taken from the CAP.

Am I getting that right?
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #235 on: April 08, 2020, 12:55:21 AM »
Persistent east winds have caused open water to appear in the eastern Hudson Bay. This is early in the season for break up.

I presume if winds turn west or northwest again this would close in ?

Winds have been very strong also hence the break up but usually open water starts appearing on the western half of Hudson Bay during Spring. So as you say, once the winds turn, the ice will return and fill those holes back in.

As for the poster mentioning about extensive ice in Barants then that will be right for the most part that some of the ice would of came from the CAB, the only positive I would have with this it could mean Atlantification may not be much of an issue during the melt season. It was similar in 2019 where ice managed to stay around all during the melt season until the very end in September which resulted in  the extent going down below 4 million on JAXA.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #236 on: April 08, 2020, 02:58:27 AM »
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?
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Rodius

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #237 on: April 08, 2020, 03:04:11 AM »
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?

IIRC it's because the thin ice is removed. Let's say you have a set of 7 blocks of ice with thickness 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 3.1. The average thickness here is 1.1 arbitrary units. Then, you have a nasty melt that takes 1 unit of thickness away from all the blocks. Now you only have 2 blocks (0.2, 2.1) with an average thickness of 1.15, as the other 5 blocks are gone.

Good explanation.... I will be using this to explain to my denier brother fairly soon.... not that he will listen lol

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #238 on: April 08, 2020, 04:32:23 AM »
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?

I feel like after every year that passes, the chances of us passing 2012 goes up quite a bit. 2020 could easily be the year
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #239 on: April 08, 2020, 09:12:35 AM »
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?

*Every* year going forward is a dice roll to beat 2020.  They are slowly but steadily being stacked in favor of beating the record.  As a SWAG, any given year right now I think has about a 1 in 3 chance of blowing by it.  It should be 1 in 2 before we get to 2025, and I expect a BOE around or about 2030.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #240 on: April 08, 2020, 11:22:55 AM »
March 29 - April 7.

2019.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #241 on: April 08, 2020, 11:46:16 AM »
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?

*Every* year going forward is a dice roll to beat 2020.  They are slowly but steadily being stacked in favor of beating the record.  As a SWAG, any given year right now I think has about a 1 in 3 chance of blowing by it.  It should be 1 in 2 before we get to 2025, and I expect a BOE around or about 2030.
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #242 on: April 08, 2020, 12:48:39 PM »
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?

*Every* year going forward is a dice roll to beat 2020.  They are slowly but steadily being stacked in favor of beating the record.  As a SWAG, any given year right now I think has about a 1 in 3 chance of blowing by it.  It should be 1 in 2 before we get to 2025, and I expect a BOE around or about 2030.
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.

Apparently he thought a BOE could of happened in 2013 after 2012 big melt, certainly did not happen that way, let's see if he's right on this prediction in a few years time!

As for whether this year can beat 2012 then it's a possibility especially if holes start appearing in the middle of the ice pack during June like it did in 2012 and 2016.

I got a feeling the East Siberian Sea ice may melt out quickly like it did in 2017 given how little fast ice there is and the ice does look rather broken up and diffused.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #243 on: April 08, 2020, 01:03:39 PM »
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.

However please note that:

Quote
People like Beckwith want to go crazy every melting season

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,92.msg7451.html#msg7451
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #244 on: April 08, 2020, 03:50:55 PM »
We're off to a strong start in terms of albedo warming potential.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #245 on: April 08, 2020, 04:51:48 PM »
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?

*Every* year going forward is a dice roll to beat 2020.  They are slowly but steadily being stacked in favor of beating the record.  As a SWAG, any given year right now I think has about a 1 in 3 chance of blowing by it.  It should be 1 in 2 before we get to 2025, and I expect a BOE around or about 2030.
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.

Apparently he thought a BOE could of happened in 2013 after 2012 big melt, certainly did not happen that way, let's see if he's right on this prediction in a few years time!

As for whether this year can beat 2012 then it's a possibility especially if holes start appearing in the middle of the ice pack during June like it did in 2012 and 2016.

I got a feeling the East Siberian Sea ice may melt out quickly like it did in 2017 given how little fast ice there is and the ice does look rather broken up and diffused.

I put Paul Beckwith in the same league as Peter Wadhams, Wieslaw Maslowski, and Jay Zwally.
Dana Nuccitelli discusses these types in SKS:

https://skepticalscience.com/alarmists-not-in-deniers-league.html

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #246 on: April 08, 2020, 05:27:26 PM »
I put Paul Beckwith in the same league as Peter Wadhams, Wieslaw Maslowski, and Jay Zwally.

I don't!

By way of example, I discuss Wieslaw Maslowski's work here:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/tag/wieslaw-maslowski/

Quote
Would it surprise you to discover that David Rose has misrepresented the “new study” that Al Gore referred to in 2007 as well, by some strange coincidence at around this time last year? I refer you to our article on that topic from September 15th 2013, and reiterate for the benefit of those who seem unable to understand either English or Mathematics that a “projection” is not the same thing as a “prediction”, and that Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s statement that “if this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by around 2013” is not at all the same thing as David Rose’s (mis)interpretation that “The Arctic will be ice-free in summer by 2013”.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #247 on: April 08, 2020, 10:39:29 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs.

Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.

Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.

What is the significance of Baffin Bay for the larger picture?

I don´t think much so i am waiting for the other lines to change.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #248 on: April 08, 2020, 11:05:07 PM »
The issues I have with Paul Beckwith is that in many of his Arctic videos, its just him going on different websites and highlighting text and reading it out on what other people have said, there does not seem to be much analysis from him or his opinions. The only thing he does come out with he thinks a BOE is imminent and when it occurs, a BOE will occur all year round after 10 years of the first BOE. I think part of his theory is plausible as sea ice will be much slower to grow and thinner as a result going into the next melt season but I be majorly shocked if winter sea ice extent reduces that quickly in time.

The other issue with him, in his videos from a few years ago, he delivered them in an enthusiastic type of way but now it's a slower and dull sounding tone which makes watching his videos a bit tedious unfortunately.

gandul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #249 on: April 08, 2020, 11:54:29 PM »
Paul Beckwith is a great wishful thinker, and one of these years he’ll be right, and he’ll be the king of ‘I thusly informed you’ for a while. But I think other people like Neven here have a much much better idea of what is going on in the Arctic.