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kassy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #250 on: April 09, 2020, 12:44:48 AM »
He is clutter guy i think?

Basically his presentation is as messy as his videos look and he is catering for a certain audience (for revenue) which does not improve on his messaging.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #251 on: April 09, 2020, 04:27:18 AM »
NSIDC Area Graphs.

Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.

Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.

What is the significance of Baffin Bay for the larger picture?

I don´t think much so i am waiting for the other lines to change.
In general, the peripheral seas don't matter much, especially those that are remote (Hudson, Okhotsk, St. L) or downstream prevailing currents out of the Arctic (Greenland Sea, Baffin Bay, partially Barents). However it's all a connected system and early disappearance of sea ice can have a cumulative albedo effect on NH weather. Besides, an early breakup and clearance in northern Baffin Bay, as shown in Aluminium's gif, can potentially lead to early damage to the Nares arch, as well as contribute to CAA breakup.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #252 on: April 09, 2020, 08:21:05 AM »
Paul Beckwith is a great wishful thinker.

I'm a wishful thinker too!

Could we possibly take the "alarmist"/"denialist" debate over to one of the Blue Ocean Event threads, and get back to the 2020 melting season in here?

For the record I agree with Peter Wadhams that "the planet is swiftly heading toward a largely ice-free Arctic in the warmer months".

A BOE prediction of his will be proved right one melting season in the not too distant future, but probably not this one. IMHO!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Neven

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #253 on: April 09, 2020, 01:21:31 PM »
Announcement: I'm looking for people to take over as administrator of the ASIF. More info here.
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grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #254 on: April 09, 2020, 02:28:31 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs.

Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.

Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.

What is the significance of Baffin Bay for the larger picture?

I don´t think much so i am waiting for the other lines to change.

If not the arctic sea ice then I'm thinking at least it has an influence on Greenland melt.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #255 on: April 10, 2020, 01:26:23 PM »
Would I be right in thinking that there is plenty of open water visible on the Ny Ålesund webcam?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-webcams/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein


Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #257 on: April 10, 2020, 11:01:02 PM »
Would I be right in thinking that there is plenty of open water visible on the Ny Ålesund webcam?


But this is the west coast of Spitzbergen which is predominantly ice free.

This year however there has been lots of ice even around the west coast.

The Svalbard sea ice area from the ice chart for 8th Apr 2020 is 493,166 sq km. This is 71,992 sq km above the 1981-2010 average and 8th highest area on record for this day of the year.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 01:43:14 AM by Niall Dollard »

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #258 on: April 10, 2020, 11:10:33 PM »
From 10th or 12th lowest extent just a week or so ago, to 3rd or 4th lowest today.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
« Last Edit: April 10, 2020, 11:27:14 PM by Thomas Barlow »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #259 on: April 10, 2020, 11:19:20 PM »
Paul Beckwith is a great wishful thinker.

I'm a wishful thinker too!

Could we possibly take the "alarmist"/"denialist" debate over to one of the Blue Ocean Event threads, and get back to the 2020 melting season in here?

For the record I agree with Peter Wadhams that "the planet is swiftly heading toward a largely ice-free Arctic in the warmer months".

A BOE prediction of his will be proved right one melting season in the not too distant future, but probably not this one. IMHO!

Jumping in for fun.
Wadhams literally will never be right.
We are at least 20 years from a BOE for one week in summer (1/6 sea-ice extent in Arctic Ocean), and humans will either deplete into nothing, or evolve at uprecendented rate by then. Once humans are diminished greatly, Earth's CO2 and pollution control mechanisms will kick in 10-fold, and ice-extent will grow.
We must evolve...in the real sense of the word.

And yea, back to Melting Season now, thanks.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 04:04:40 AM by Thomas Barlow »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #262 on: April 11, 2020, 08:51:55 AM »
Once humans are diminished greatly, Earth's CO2 and pollution control mechanisms will kick in 10-fold, and ice-extent will grow.
We must evolve...in the real sense of the word.

Now that is a major misunderstanding. Even if we stopped emittin all Co2 today, warming would continue for at least decades as Co2 stays in the atmosphere for quite long:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/12/common-climate-misconceptions-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/

It turns out that while much of the “pulse” of extra CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere would be absorbed over the next century if emissions miraculously were to end today, about 20 percent of that CO2 would remain for at least tens of thousands of years.

Each year the chance of a BOE is bigger and with no aerosols due to COVID19 and a snowless winter in Europe, and the state of the ice as shown upthread and wintertime export of multiyear ice, this year is a very strong contender I believe

grixm

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #263 on: April 11, 2020, 01:26:38 PM »
I thought this was kind of cool. The low in the Barents sea currently has four mesovortices, creating a kind of fidget-spinner pattern:


psymmo7

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #264 on: April 11, 2020, 01:34:50 PM »
mesovortex pattern indeed cool! Very fractal!

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #265 on: April 11, 2020, 01:46:35 PM »
Once humans are diminished greatly, Earth's CO2 and pollution control mechanisms will kick in 10-fold, and ice-extent will grow.
We must evolve...in the real sense of the word.

Now that is a major misunderstanding. Even if we stopped emittin all Co2 today, warming would continue for at least decades as Co2 stays in the atmosphere for quite long:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/12/common-climate-misconceptions-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/

Now that is a major misunderstanding (to quote you). If humans are not polluting for some magical reason, the mechanisms of nature that pull CO2 and pollution from the air, land, and sea, kick-in, and are always 10 times more cleansing and restorative than scientists' expect. These are the scientific facts, but that discussion and scientific references are for another thread, which I have little interest in that discusion.

<You can't state as scientific fact that natural mechanisms are 10 times what scientists expect. This requires major justification, in another thread, should you wish to stick to it.>
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 06:26:53 PM by oren »

Freegrass

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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #267 on: April 11, 2020, 02:05:59 PM »
...about 20 percent of that CO2 would remain for at least tens of thousands of years.
It will take nature millions of years to store all that carbon back into fossilized or crystalline form.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #268 on: April 11, 2020, 04:00:00 PM »
I nominate mesovortices for word of the month  :D

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #269 on: April 11, 2020, 08:22:44 PM »
Once humans are diminished greatly, Earth's CO2 and pollution control mechanisms will kick in 10-fold, and ice-extent will grow.
We must evolve...in the real sense of the word.

Now that is a major misunderstanding. Even if we stopped emittin all Co2 today, warming would continue for at least decades as Co2 stays in the atmosphere for quite long:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/12/common-climate-misconceptions-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/

Now that is a major misunderstanding (to quote you). If humans are not polluting for some magical reason, the mechanisms of nature that pull CO2 and pollution from the air, land, and sea, kick-in, and are always 10 times more cleansing and restorative than scientists' expect. These are the scientific facts, but that discussion and scientific references are for another thread, which I have little interest in that discusion.

<You can't state as scientific fact that natural mechanisms are 10 times what scientists expect. This requires major justification, in another thread, should you wish to stick to it.>

Everyone does that here.
But the new moderators are fake-name lurkers with no real personage. Basically hiding behind their fake names. Angry, cilique-forming, prejudiced trolls at best.

I have the research for what I said. It's like asking for evidence that the Earth is round. But I'm outta here, now that 'seaicesailor' or some other fake guy is moderating with their latest fake-name, after they got banned several times in the past. Not interested.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2020, 08:38:12 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #270 on: April 11, 2020, 08:54:35 PM »
Thomas - Please take all your non "2020 melting season" comments elsewhere.

TIA
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #271 on: April 12, 2020, 03:38:50 AM »
Cyclone system going to spawn in the Fram/Greenland Sea in 2 days. Going to be a doozy, gets stuck under a ridge for at least 3 days. Warmth + winds and warm water coming to the Barents and ice pack on that side, starts stretching a good ways into the CAB. Nullschool only goes 5 days, and it's still there.

Here's Day 4, you can change days at the bottom with the << >> arrows.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/15/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-77.81,80.15,450/loc=54.814,78.149

Eurasia is also probably going to see a lot of snow melt. Especially the eastern side, warming up quickly. A lot of warmth has been pulsing through Eurasia. I'm not sure what the records are, but snow extent + April warmth will probably be notable. Warm Barents + warm Eurasia behind it.

Extreme cold retreating from the Bering and Western NA. Baffin probably going to get dinged a bit too. 2020 will assuredly be 2nd lowest pretty soon. April is looking like it's going to be very interesting.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #272 on: April 12, 2020, 06:05:30 AM »
Good moderating there Oren!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #273 on: April 12, 2020, 07:15:05 AM »
Good moderating there Oren!

Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.  BTW, oren, good to see you as moderator.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #274 on: April 12, 2020, 08:26:23 AM »
Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.

I thought that as well!

The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.

Thanks Oren.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #275 on: April 12, 2020, 08:50:55 AM »
I've decided to let #269 stand, in all its dubious glory, as I'm more concerned with denialism of science than with silly insults. However TB is on my radar screen, should this continue.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #276 on: April 12, 2020, 09:01:12 AM »
Thank you oren for your moderation in moderating. Much appreciated.

"nanning" is my first given name. Is "oren" your first name? Just nice to know.
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #277 on: April 12, 2020, 09:34:00 AM »
 Actually yes, it is.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #278 on: April 12, 2020, 10:14:21 AM »
Well moderated Oren

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #279 on: April 12, 2020, 11:44:45 AM »
More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-44.76,105.99,3000/loc=130.078,71.852
That is air temperature.
Yes, but it means heat is flowing the wrong way, earlier than it should be (no freezing).

It also means top melt of the covering snow pack, potential formation of sub-snow cover melt ponding, and a general reduction in albedo.

It all adds up.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #280 on: April 12, 2020, 01:38:17 PM »
Air temperature in Tiksi (the Laptev coast) was 21.2 C above average that day. Heat waves will continue in Siberian side. Meanwhile almost 500 Gt of snow melted out in Eurasia in just 11 days. It's more than Greenland melt in whole season

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #281 on: April 12, 2020, 02:06:47 PM »
More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-44.76,105.99,3000/loc=130.078,71.852
That is air temperature.
Yes, but it means heat is flowing the wrong way, earlier than it should be (no freezing).

It also means top melt of the covering snow pack, potential formation of sub-snow cover melt ponding, and a general reduction in albedo.

It all adds up.
That heat was actually very weirdly narrow and local. I guess that has to do with the mountains there and the Lena river valley that channels the wind?  If you go through the different heights on Nullschool on that day, a lot of that heat comes in on the 850 hPa level, and then weirdly appeared on the Laptev at the surface level.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/2100Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-44.76,105.99,1500/loc=130.078,71.852
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #282 on: April 12, 2020, 04:12:04 PM »
Good moderating there Oren!

Neven has been overworked for years. I have always felt a deep debt of gratitude that he has spent so much of his life on this. There are a lot of people here who I respect a great deal. Oren is one of these people. Moderation can only improve with several persons like him/her here.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #283 on: April 12, 2020, 04:16:02 PM »
I have the research for what I said.

Linked research is one of the biggest reasons I am a regular here. Could you provide the link on the BOE thread?

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #284 on: April 12, 2020, 04:34:31 PM »
Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.

I thought that as well!

The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.

Thanks Oren.

I'm a science-denier now?
I've been at this far longer than most here. Here's my message from 1996 to the Paris Climate Conference, long before most of you jumped on the climate bandwagon, after most of you denyied it for years in the 80s and 90s.
https://postimg.cc/PPLxMBCP

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #285 on: April 12, 2020, 04:52:47 PM »
TB, I hope you can cool down and not take offense. But I also ask you to continue any further discussions of moderation actions to the Forum Decorum thread.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #286 on: April 12, 2020, 07:07:04 PM »
Ok, let's do some serious stuff for a change, shall we?

Here is the series of Sunday movies. Starting with the Ozone concentration Sunday to Sunday, 8 frames.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #287 on: April 12, 2020, 07:08:26 PM »
The Fram export via SAR. Saturday to Sunday, 9 frames (because last Sunday flight path sucked).
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #288 on: April 12, 2020, 07:09:29 PM »
Ice drift map, Sunday to Saturday, 7 frames.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #289 on: April 12, 2020, 07:10:46 PM »
And the 7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies, Sunday to Sunday, 8 frames.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #290 on: April 12, 2020, 11:06:33 PM »
Good moderating there Oren!

Neven has been overworked for years. I have always felt a deep debt of gratitude that he has spent so much of his life on this. There are a lot of people here who I respect a great deal. Oren is one of these people. Moderation can only improve with several persons like him/her here.
I found Neven to be a down to earth, and generous person. I had my bad days here on the forum, and they still count...  But Neven dealt with it respectfully! And I can only bow my head to such grace...

I hope you can keep those people in your dad's business @work Neven! I know it'll be difficult, because you'll have to set aside some of your principles if you want to run a business... But I know you'll make it work after you've finished doing your damage control! Business is all about people knowledge, and you know people!

I wish you all the best! And I mean that! What you did here is awesome! THANK YOU!
Oren and Blum will be good moderators.

Sometimes you have to let things go for them to flourish... But you'll always be the one who provided the seed...

Good Luck!
And many thanks!
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #291 on: April 12, 2020, 11:24:00 PM »
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 11:39:09 PM by Freegrass »
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #292 on: April 13, 2020, 01:04:11 AM »
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.

Not much snow in Siberia, is there? But I'm pretty sure that's more than 2 cm...

Edit: 420 messages... Happy 420!  ;D
« Last Edit: April 13, 2020, 01:55:21 AM by Freegrass »
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Wildcatter

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #293 on: April 13, 2020, 05:54:47 AM »
Warmer weather over western NA (including Alaska) looks like it's going to lead to an enormous amount of snow melt this week. Wow.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2020, 06:59:31 AM by Wildcatter »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #294 on: April 13, 2020, 06:10:18 AM »
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.

Snow is rarely very thick in flat areas without tree cover. The wind tends to blow it away, but of course there can be very deep accumulations where an obstruction gives some shelter.

The very deepest even snow layer I ever saw was about 2 m, covering a flat valley floor perhaps 2 or 3 km wide. The surrounding mountains were mostsly windswept and bare, so averaging over the entire area would probably be well under 1m.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #295 on: April 13, 2020, 07:05:32 AM »
I only glanced at the next 10 days.

Does look like the Canadian basin.

Expecially the CAA should see very good conditions for thickening.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #296 on: April 13, 2020, 09:27:52 AM »
More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.
That is air temperature.
Yes, but it means heat is flowing the wrong way, earlier than it should be (no freezing).
That heat was actually very weirdly narrow and local. I guess that has to do with the mountains there and the Lena river valley that channels the wind?

You may be on to something there.  It might be adiabatic heating due to air compressing from being driven over and then down the opposite side of a mountain range.
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #297 on: April 13, 2020, 09:59:02 AM »
Temps in Tiksi have been experiencing a heatwave in the past 9 days. The two days that were above zero hit record high temperatures for the date.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #298 on: April 13, 2020, 10:39:56 AM »
April 5-12.

2019.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #299 on: April 13, 2020, 06:28:44 PM »
I'm hyper interested in witnessing what unfolds on Greenland's northern shoreline this year, but I really think that the crack that formed last year will become a new feature. While still early in the melt season, I looks as though the pack is quite mobile already and once more widespread melt and Atlantification kick in, I think this area will melt somewhat quickly. This is from the April 12th(!)


pls!