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Gumbercules

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #300 on: April 13, 2020, 06:41:27 PM »
Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.

I thought that as well!

The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.

Thanks Oren.

Wouldn't want any wrongthink now would we?

<No, we wouldn't. O.>
« Last Edit: April 13, 2020, 08:34:57 PM by oren »

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #301 on: April 13, 2020, 09:57:09 PM »
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.

Snow is rarely very thick in flat areas without tree cover. The wind tends to blow it away, but of course there can be very deep accumulations where an obstruction gives some shelter.

The very deepest even snow layer I ever saw was about 2 m, covering a flat valley floor perhaps 2 or 3 km wide. The surrounding mountains were mostsly windswept and bare, so averaging over the entire area would probably be well under 1m.
Well that's why I find it weird that the scale only goes to 72 cm, when there are clearly places with a lot more snow than that. I understand that snow can get blown away, but 1 or 2 cm of snow is nothing. That's 1 hour or less of snow. Surely there must be more?

But I guess the people who made that site must know what they are doing. I just find it odd... Can we say that Siberia is like a desert, with very little precipitation? Is that why I'm understanding snow cover in Siberia and the Arctic wrong?
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #302 on: April 13, 2020, 10:05:46 PM »
Freegrass, best continue this dicussion in the NH snow cover thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.msg259533.html#new

Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #303 on: April 14, 2020, 05:48:12 AM »
I know there have been some posts about the aerosol reduction impacting the arctic ice melt but I wanted to discuss it a bit again with some more background available.

I thought the video linked at the end shared some research papers that had very interesting information about the short term effects of the aerosol reduction and how it might affect this melting season.

Basically it says most of the temperature increase will be over the arctic and other parts of the northern hemisphere.  There will also be a large increase in precipitation and more volatile weather.

Depending on the severity of the aerosol reduction it will be interesting to see if we can tease out the impacts on the melting season.  A lot of rain and storms perhaps?



This is the video.  The part showing the image from this post starts at 10 minutes.  I think the video does a great job of discussing all the different things that go on and the history of the research into aerosol reduction.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #304 on: April 14, 2020, 01:05:57 PM »
We wrote a program in the developers-corner that can extract data from the MOSAiC buoys in (essentially) real time.

Ill be posting that data weekly to a dropbox in the format of both raw-numerical and visual data.

It will be interesting to keep an eye on them over the melt-season, it already appears that temps are ramping up over all the active buoys we can monitor.

Uniquorn has been working their magic in making some cartographic visualisations over in the MOSAiC thread.
Im working on a satellite-miner to detect changes in small ice-caps/ snow-fields. Send me recommendations to optimise the program with.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #305 on: April 14, 2020, 02:48:34 PM »
It might be adiabatic heating due to air compressing from being driven over and then down the opposite side of a mountain range.
It looks like you can see another good example of adiabatic heating around Novaya Zemlya. That is so cool.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/19/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,3000/loc=63.371,76.884
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #306 on: April 14, 2020, 05:41:22 PM »
Early days but here is a look at Nico Sun's Albedo Warming Potential  Graphs.

The first graph shows the Cumulative Total anomaly & 2020 is off to am early start. The second graph shows how this early start is mainly due to just 3 peripheral seas - Okhotsk, Bering & Baffin.

The first graph also is a good demo of how the 2012 melt, being so late was not so effective in raising the AWP as in 2016 and 2019. With less warmth accumulated, 2012 saw a very rapid and early freeze, in contrast with 2016 and 2019. Remember the lack of freeze in October 2019?

Even if confined to the periphery, early melt must surely make a difference, though perhaps more to fall and early winter.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #307 on: April 14, 2020, 06:24:53 PM »
Warm weather enters into the Arctic.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #308 on: April 14, 2020, 06:49:51 PM »
Almost warm enough to sunbathe on the Polarstern.
 :D
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 12:48:16 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #309 on: April 14, 2020, 08:43:14 PM »
Warm weather enters into the Arctic.
That's one *helluva* temperature gradient.  I imagine weather's kind of unsettled a few hundred KM N of Svalbard.
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Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #310 on: April 14, 2020, 08:51:50 PM »
Warm weather enters into the Arctic.

Yep a pattern change of a spell of southerlies for the fram Stright and the Barants sea, the strongest winds don't look set too last ffor too long but it is bringing well above average temperatures. I guess in one way its not too bad for the ice as it gets pushed back northwards and it compacts but we see if we see much in the way of extent lost in the Barants as a result.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #311 on: April 14, 2020, 09:43:52 PM »
Five day forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #312 on: April 15, 2020, 12:29:37 AM »
I'm hyper interested in witnessing what unfolds on Greenland's northern shoreline this year, but I really think that the crack that formed last year will become a new feature.

I was wondering if this year the blocked Nares might make the ice more stable directly north of Greenland - compared to last year spring/summer.

The latest PIOMAS chart seemed to indicate thicker ice in this area this year.

Although having said that, this GIF from June 2016 shows that even with a blocked Nares Strait (bottom left) cracks can develop right across the north of Greenland.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #313 on: April 15, 2020, 01:35:46 AM »
Almost warm enough to sunbathe on the Polarstern.

Recent temperature and wind direction plot from Polarstern.

At 14.04.2020 22:00 (local time) it was -14.5 C but rise in temperature is clear.

Wind has backed all the way from northerly around to an easterly direction.

I think I would wait a while before sunbathing.  :)

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #314 on: April 15, 2020, 06:20:27 AM »
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.
Not much snow in Siberia, is there? But I'm pretty sure that's more than 2 cm...

Dr. Sean Birkel (who singlehandedly conceived, built, and runs Climate Reanalyzer) sent me this reply about the legend on the snow depth map:
"The plotted units were inches, while the title showed cm.  Found bug...now the plotted values are in cm set to a cm specific color scale."

   Thus, before the correction the snow depth indicated was only 40% of the actual.  Now corrected.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 06:26:34 AM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #315 on: April 15, 2020, 07:43:30 AM »
Thanks for that information and your effort Glen.

All hail Sean Birkel!
Let's send him (I think 'Sean' is male) a bunch of flowers or somesuch.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #316 on: April 15, 2020, 09:28:22 AM »
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.
Not much snow in Siberia, is there? But I'm pretty sure that's more than 2 cm...

Dr. Sean Birkel (who singlehandedly conceived, built, and runs Climate Reanalyzer) sent me this reply about the legend on the snow depth map:
"The plotted units were inches, while the title showed cm.  Found bug...now the plotted values are in cm set to a cm specific color scale."

   Thus, before the correction the snow depth indicated was only 40% of the actual.  Now corrected.
That's awesome. Thanks Glen! And thank you Dr. Sean Birkel for the work on Climate Reanalyzer. Happy I was able to find this bug. :)
« Last Edit: April 15, 2020, 11:41:01 AM by Freegrass »
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Pavel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #317 on: April 15, 2020, 01:52:04 PM »
Ice melting in the Barents sea due to the strong cyclone and heat advection. Animation yesterday/today

Milwen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #318 on: April 15, 2020, 08:01:39 PM »


jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #320 on: April 15, 2020, 10:00:18 PM »
Also this doesnt look good https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

Yeah, quickly sifted through images of the same location over the last 10 years.  The ice in the Chukchi is noticeably worse than previous years.  ESS looks about the same over all, somewhat worse than average.  The combination of them may be a portent, but we'll need to watch for more strong weather and/or melt ponds before we get too excited about it.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #321 on: April 15, 2020, 10:19:45 PM »
The polar vortex is about to split up. 

I've moved this to the proper thread. I'm gonna try to do better with this.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,704.msg236659.html#msg236659
« Last Edit: April 16, 2020, 02:09:43 AM by Freegrass »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #322 on: April 15, 2020, 11:53:19 PM »
Also this doesnt look good https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

Perfect example of why those who think extent is the more important metric than volume are lost in abstract land. As thickness (volume) declines, the structural integrity of the ice declines. Rapid declines in extent occur only after the structural integrity of the ice has already been compromised. Until the structural integrity of ice is compromised declines in extent are minimal. We will see the Chukchi melt out rapidly this year because the ice is already compromised.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #323 on: April 16, 2020, 12:11:34 AM »

Perfect example of why those who think extent is the more important metric than volume are lost in abstract land. As thickness (volume) declines, the structural integrity of the ice declines. Rapid declines in extent occur only after the structural integrity of the ice has already been compromised. Until the structural integrity of ice is compromised declines in extent are minimal. We will see the Chukchi melt out rapidly this year because the ice is already compromised.

What's the most objective way of comparing the degree of compromise from year to year? In the absence of any other evidence, I would probably look at the Chukchi area figures at equivalent dates in 2019 and 2020 as an indication of the degree of Chukchi decline in structural integrity.

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #324 on: April 16, 2020, 01:31:36 AM »
Decline in area won't get you that, because in regional seas that melt out every year it's highly dependent on other factors. But this is a bit of a red herring.

We have volume data for arctic sea ice (imperfect as it may be). So when we're trying to project how sea ice decline will go over time, we're not looking at areas that melt out every year already anyway (by that point those areas are already lacking thick ice). My point was simply that the photo shows (what people frequenting the board already know) how sea ice actually melts out; not from the edges in, but first through the loss of integrity of the ice; i.e. through loss in thickness/volume. Large declines in area/extent only show up afterwards.

Structural integrity can be weakened through other processes than bottom and surface melt, so -- as 2012 demonstrated -- there are ways to speed up the process of getting to lower extent, of course.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #325 on: April 16, 2020, 01:41:31 AM »
Also this doesnt look good https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

Yeah, quickly sifted through images of the same location over the last 10 years.  The ice in the Chukchi is noticeably worse than previous years.  ESS looks about the same over all, somewhat worse than average.  The combination of them may be a portent, but we'll need to watch for more strong weather and/or melt ponds before we get too excited about it.

2014 looks similar around that date but as we know, the ice could look different within the next few days and there is no major dramas forecast for the Chukchi for the foreseeable future.

Disagree about the ESS, the lack of fast ice is a real concern, if the weather was as bad as last June we may see a rapid melt out here. I think we may see just how shocking the ESS will be if we keep getting winds blowing in from Siberia and watch the gaps between the fast ice and the sea ice growing. 2017 was quite extreme and I would not be surprised if we see something similar this year.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #326 on: April 16, 2020, 08:12:57 AM »
The Chukchi continues to follow the custom post-2016 of starting the melting season with a low volume. But 2018 and 2019 were even worse.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #327 on: April 16, 2020, 01:35:45 PM »
I know am a novice at this, but cracking in various directions to this extent deep in the CAB, I would think is very concerning, this early in the melting season. See Worldview 16/4 towards the pole from the ESS.  Would ad a pic but not good at this...yet.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #328 on: April 16, 2020, 02:17:11 PM »
I've made another forecast video with Wind + Temp @ Surface. The heat that's coming into the arctic in the coming days is impressive. The Bering sea will also go through some melting.

I usually put these videos on loop (right click, and select loop), that way you can focus on an area and get the forecast for it, or just watch how the cold gets blown away...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #329 on: April 16, 2020, 02:44:43 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #330 on: April 16, 2020, 03:26:51 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #331 on: April 16, 2020, 04:08:16 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia
That we're gonna have another disastrous year for the ice is without question. The only unknown is the weather. If we get a lot of wind stirring up the ocean, mixing layers, coupled with a lot of export through fram and the garlic press, then we could see open water at the pole and more. But like I said, it'll all depend on the weather...

My guess is that it's gonna be bad!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #332 on: April 16, 2020, 07:10:02 PM »

That we're gonna have another disastrous year for the ice is without question. The only unknown is the weather.....


Help me understand these statements Freegrass. If we are definitely going to have a disastrous year for the ice and the only unknown is weather, what is not unknown? What are the non-weather factors which are important to the outcome for the ice this year?

RikW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #333 on: April 16, 2020, 07:21:42 PM »
well, the last 10/20 years have been disastrous compared to what was normal and this year won't be different I guess; How disastrous it will be, depends, among other things, on the weather

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #334 on: April 16, 2020, 08:23:31 PM »
well, the last 10/20 years have been disastrous compared to what was normal and this year won't be different I guess; How disastrous it will be, depends, among other things, on the weather
What Rick said Phoenix. We know what the long term trend is, and we can already see the bad shape the ice is in this year. So the only unknown now is the weather.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #335 on: April 16, 2020, 10:54:10 PM »
This is why I think any aerosol loss will be significant.  It's major effect is increasing the atmospheric heat and precipitation in the arctic.  More storms, more wind, more rain on the ice.  Bad weather from the plague!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #336 on: April 17, 2020, 05:06:08 AM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.
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tybeedave

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #337 on: April 17, 2020, 05:48:43 AM »
hi yall,
it's been a few days since i posted. i've been practicing what i preach, that is, i've watched and listened and kept my mouth shut when i had nothing nice or important to say.  bear with me as i wax poetic.
for some of you, i am ringing a familiar bell or chime.  for others, i am scratching my fingernails on a blackboard.
we don't contribute to this forum because the data and opinions are just interesting (at least i don't).  we're here because we're horrified at the state of the sea ice and the tragedy it portends.
we all are trying to contribute to understanding what's happening now so that it may help us modify our future. 
i've included a pic for reference in my contribution to a possible understanding leading to a solution.

pls feel free to suggest additions or omissions

Contributing factors of sea ice decline beyond the sun which ultimately drives all the others
all may be acute or chronic
all should be paid attention to when approaching extreme levels or timeframes.
pray when more than one happens at the same time
i offer no evidence, i cite no data, just a view of what i look at in no particular order of importance after the sun

O.  the sun's heat and the weather it creates.  last year's sunshine seemed extreme in the spring but not so much the rest of the melt season.
1.  the CAB being attacked from underneath. insidious.
2.  the extreme melt event currently occurring in the fram/greenland sea area.
3.  the atlantification by gulf stream heat transfer to the far north
4.  the heat imported from the Pacific in pulses that are much stronger than the occasional wind shift caused export.  warm in, cool out.
5.  the freshness of the top layer of liquid water in the Beaufort Sea and salinity levels elsewhere.
6.  the sometimes export of ice thru the Nares and the continuous flow of cold water yr-round that is replaced in the CAB by warmer waters from the Atlantic and Pacific.
7.  American and Russian exploitation of natural resources and the footprints they leave.
8.  currents spreading the Atlantic warmth around the periphery, ie, as a kid, Novaya Zemlya (new land) was icebound all summer, this year, open water existed all winter on at least one side of the island
9  the melting of Greenland proper, it was extreme last year and may repeat, the cracks visible last year on its northern coast seem about to repeat.
10.  the CAA, the last bastion of multiyear ice.  it was extremely cold this past winter, but it is still fragile.

correct me, i'm sure i missed a few factors in melt analysis (the wind event in 2012), ie, tides as so recently cited by MOSAIC observations of its decaying effect on the sea ice in their location, but my aim is to ring an alarm bell and move us all to action rather than guessing what an out of control future may be.

ps, ty Neven for the years of intelligent guidance, the king is dead, long live the king, oren, who is sure to lead us to greater heights of understanding.  ty in advance.  moderating is not easy, this i know from years of experience as a sysop and moderator for microsoft. my hat is off to you and all the contributors to this forum, even binntho, love ya man.  lol

td

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Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #338 on: April 17, 2020, 06:49:34 AM »
well, the last 10/20 years have been disastrous compared to what was normal and this year won't be different I guess; How disastrous it will be, depends, among other things, on the weather
What Rick said Phoenix. We know what the long term trend is, and we can already see the bad shape the ice is in this year. So the only unknown now is the weather.

The data thread says extent is 206k greater than last year at this point. There is no objective measure that I'm aware of the ice being in worse shape this year vs. last. The intermediate trend is that we haven't really come close to a new record minima for seven years.

I guess disaster is a subjective term. If 2020 matches 2019, is 2020 considered a disaster in your opinion? What are the criteria for disaster in the context of this season which is ostensibly the  thread topic?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #339 on: April 17, 2020, 09:30:24 AM »
April 10-16.

2019.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #340 on: April 17, 2020, 10:01:04 AM »
April 10-16.
Looking at this animation (thank you as usual Aluminium), I think the recent weather in the Barents is actually good for the ice. The worst that can happen in April, when temps are still far below and the sun mostly nonexistent, is not a couple of days of barely-melting temps, but the continued and sustained movement of ice from the Pole region to the Fram, which reduces the amount of thick 2m+ ice that can resist a whole melting season. Anything that halts or slows down this freight train is welcome news, IMHO.
The longer the movement over time, the thicker the ice that is lost. Random walk does almost nothing in this regard.
Admittedly though, a few days of shakeup can dislodge stubborn ice or compact it and increase mobility of the pack, so it can cut both ways. We shall see.

Hefaistos

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #341 on: April 17, 2020, 12:44:05 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.

The significance of a pole melt would be mainly psychological.

Pavel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #342 on: April 17, 2020, 01:04:26 PM »
Fram export will reduce but also polynyas are opening up in the CAB because of ice movement. From the weather forecast one can expect the polynyas won't refreeze but rather expand more

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #343 on: April 17, 2020, 01:06:32 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

The Walrus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #344 on: April 17, 2020, 03:28:31 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.

Possibly, although some have suggested that it may been as recently as 100,000 years ago.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL057188
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

Others as recently as 6,000 years ago.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004162?np=y
https://phys.org/news/2008-10-ice-arctic-ocean-years.html


Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #345 on: April 17, 2020, 03:46:31 PM »
Close up Worldview image of Sept 8th 2016

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #346 on: April 17, 2020, 03:50:59 PM »
Close up Worldview image of Sept 8th 2016
Thank you Niall.
And had that melting season not been cut short a day later due to the vagaries of weather, things might have been even more interesting. 2012 had the extent and area minimum to its name thanks to killing all the other seas within the Arctic Basin and to making a big dent in the CAB, but 2016 came much ahead in the hard-to-melt region around the pole.

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #347 on: April 17, 2020, 04:20:13 PM »
so that's 3 million years , 100,000 years , 6,000 years or nearly 4 years since the pole was a watery hole . Nice diversity in opinions .
This year the ice looks in better shape than many recently .. last year The Beaufort was a mess by now , Lincoln was heading out through Nares , and there was 200,000 fewer sq kms to melt . Last years movement from the ESS and Laptev toward Fram was more dramatic than this year though it paused in April while the latest forecasts suggest export will return with a vengeance in a few days . As Oren says this export is more damaging than a few hours above freezing .
  ^^ this said I do not doubt that this year will be amongst the worst for Arctic Sea Ice if not the worst in 4 years .. :) .. b.c.
  However the warmth over Siberia may well bring an early melt to it's northern shores in a few weeks ,
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #348 on: April 17, 2020, 05:18:31 PM »
Fram export will reduce but also polynyas are opening up in the CAB because of ice movement. From the weather forecast one can expect the polynyas won't refreeze but rather expand more

Nothing unusual in that though albeit you are correct that the holes won't refreeze because of the high temperatures. The holes will fill back in when the winds switch again and the models do indicate this will happen by day 4ish.

Suspect we may see holes appearing in the Laptev and ESS regions soon when the winds switch. The ESS a particular concern really but it will be interesting how it develops as nothing is stright forward in the Arctic.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #349 on: April 18, 2020, 02:23:15 AM »
The ESS melting out before August is unlikely without extraordinary weather.

We have seen the ESS many years get battered and the ice sticks around.

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