Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2020 melting season  (Read 605806 times)

Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 760
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 294
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #400 on: April 21, 2020, 12:47:34 AM »
Five day forecast Wind @ Surface not looking good for the Barents sea ice.

In what sense ?

Temperatures will be low with strong north and northwest winds. We will likely see the ice edge extending south.

The ice will of course melt as it pushes further south towards Norway. But in the meantime I expect we will see Barents extent and area increase a bit.


Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #401 on: April 21, 2020, 01:56:41 AM »
Five day forecast Wind @ Surface not looking good for the Barents sea ice.

In what sense ?

Temperatures will be low with strong north and northwest winds. We will likely see the ice edge extending south.

The ice will of course melt as it pushes further south towards Norway. But in the meantime I expect we will see Barents extent and area increase a bit.
I agree, but it's not really that cold, and as you say, a lot of that ice will be pushed into warm water, where it will melt quickly.

The other problem I see are the large polynyas that have opened up. The wind will be able to create waves there that are destructive for the ice, no?

Has anyone noticed the missing ice on the Greenland coast?
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Niall Dollard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 760
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 294
  • Likes Given: 71
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #402 on: April 21, 2020, 01:42:28 PM »
Yes FG, holes in the ice are often formed in the lee of islands of Franz Josef Land and Svalbard.

So when winds were southerly for a time recently holes appeared to the north of the islands as the wind pushed the ice away.

However if the forecasts follow through with north or northwest winds these holes will likely close back in with new ones possible on the lee (southern side) of the islands.

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 750
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #403 on: April 21, 2020, 04:10:43 PM »
From last years I have got this recipe for perfect melting.

1. High temperature at 850 hPa. Snow and ice are initially resistant to visible light but vulnerable to infrared radiation. Difference between 280 K and 260 K is 90 W/m2 according to the Stefan–Boltzmann law.
2. High total precipitable water. Greenhouse gases are required for infrared interaction with atmosphere. In addition, water vapor contains a lot of energy. Carbon dioxide takes a part here.
3. High declination of the Sun and clear sky. After some melting, ice is getting darker.

The New Siberian Islands is getting something like it at this moment, though it's a weak version. Dew point reached -3.5°C at 3:00 UTC (74.67 N 138.90 E).

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #404 on: April 21, 2020, 04:46:03 PM »
After some melting, ice is getting darker.
If that melting occurs early in the season, wouldn't snow blowing over it again cover those spots? Or does that lowered albedo last through the season?
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 750
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #405 on: April 21, 2020, 06:14:49 PM »
If that melting occurs early in the season, wouldn't snow blowing over it again cover those spots?
I think, yes, easily. However, some effects may last for a long time. Thinner snow cover and early access to warmth are not good for ice. Cold ice have margin of safety. You need to heat up it before melting.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #406 on: April 21, 2020, 07:17:04 PM »
If that melting occurs early in the season, wouldn't snow blowing over it again cover those spots?
I think, yes, easily. However, some effects may last for a long time. Thinner snow cover and early access to warmth are not good for ice. Cold ice have margin of safety. You need to heat up it before melting.
When snow melts, it becomes more compact, and then refreezes. Air is taken out. So the insulating factor of the snow goes down, right? But you also get a harder icy surface that's more difficult to melt, no?


Edit: If you decrease the insulating factor of snow through short-term melting, wouldn't that help the ice to grow thicker when temperatures drop again?

I guess this is all basic ice physics?
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 07:36:25 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 750
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #407 on: April 21, 2020, 07:55:54 PM »
I agree with all.

My interest is effect of current event. Will it be something notable?

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #408 on: April 21, 2020, 09:55:38 PM »
I agree with all.

My interest is effect of current event. Will it be something notable?

What current event? If you mean the current above average temps across the basin then I would say it will have little to no affect on what may happen in the future as temperatures won't be constantly at or above zero for any length of time. Also the models are showing the AO turning more positive so the temperatures will head downwards again in anycase.

This April has been totally different to the last few April's in that high pressure has been largely absent across the basin. In all honesty, I think high pressure is probably better for the ice than low pressure as the ice is getting compacted and the heat still escapes at night. We shall see what persistent low pressure will have on weather patterns as we head into May.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #409 on: April 21, 2020, 11:17:26 PM »
My interest is effect of current event. Will it be something notable?

Current effects will always be balanced by further events...
Although I do think that this will be a "special" year, with extraordinary circumstances...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #410 on: April 22, 2020, 12:43:18 PM »
Until we see a jump towards record snow cover loss in May on land and in June on the ice we have no chance for a new record low. 

And snow cover loss has stalled out.

Guess what...

Ice loss has stalled out.

I'm starting to think maybe the permafrost helps slow snow melt in high spring sun?

I don't know...

Thoughts???
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #411 on: April 22, 2020, 02:38:53 PM »
Until we see a jump towards record snow cover loss in May on land and in June on the ice we have no chance for a new record low. 

And snow cover loss has stalled out.

Guess what...

Ice loss has stalled out.

I'm starting to think maybe the permafrost helps slow snow melt in high spring sun?

I don't know...

Thoughts???

I think that heavy snow in the high latitudes is a developing new normal for the NH and this needs to be watched closely.

https://www.ccin.ca/index.php/ccw/snow/current

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 591
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 261
  • Likes Given: 182
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #412 on: April 22, 2020, 03:46:05 PM »
I think that heavy snow in the high latitudes is a developing new normal for the NH and this needs to be watched closely.

BBR, is that you?!

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 750
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #413 on: April 22, 2020, 03:58:03 PM »
Kotelny Island reached +1.2°С today. Previous record of April was +0.3°С in 1967.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 604
  • Likes Given: 463
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #414 on: April 22, 2020, 04:18:00 PM »
[quote author=dnem link=topic=3017.msg261090#msg261090 date=1587563165

BBR, is that you?




 sadly not .. SH has been @ for a few years .. bbr , absent for a few months .. :)

 the ongoing assault on Kara is interesting .. very mobile ice and a 960 mb low passing over .. b.c.



2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

blumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #415 on: April 22, 2020, 04:32:39 PM »
absent for a few months

Absent due to ban.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3245
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 521
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #416 on: April 22, 2020, 06:38:27 PM »
Until we see a jump towards record snow cover loss in May on land and in June on the ice we have no chance for a new record low. 

And snow cover loss has stalled out.

Guess what...

Ice loss has stalled out.

I'm starting to think maybe the permafrost helps slow snow melt in high spring sun?

I don't know...

Thoughts???
Less permafrost I think and more a negative feedback from increased moisture being carried to high latitudes in winter.

While we have a lack of coverage in some areas, there are lots of places where the snow pack is 20cm or more thicker than has been typical.

I'm looking to see if this translates into uneven distribution of melt on the ice, theory here being where there is less continental snow pack, peripheral ice gets attacked earlier, and the reverse. 

It also *will* translate into more spring melt, so I'm interested to watch drainage basins where there is a higher snow load to see what happens in the ESS, Laptev & Kara seas.
This space for Rent.

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1253
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 542
  • Likes Given: 102
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #417 on: April 22, 2020, 09:24:45 PM »
I think that heavy snow in the high latitudes is a developing new normal for the NH and this needs to be watched closely.

BBR, is that you?!

 :)
I wanted to ask the same!!!

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #418 on: April 22, 2020, 11:55:02 PM »
I think that heavy snow in the high latitudes is a developing new normal for the NH and this needs to be watched closely.

BBR, is that you?!

 :)
I wanted to ask the same!!!

I kind of miss his impending ice age comments.  ;)

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1398
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 604
  • Likes Given: 463
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #419 on: April 23, 2020, 12:52:00 AM »
  .. even his absence causes an avalanche ! ^^^  :) .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

bbr2315

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 137
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #420 on: April 23, 2020, 02:51:26 AM »
I have been summoned!

<Welcome back but note things have changed and moderation will be swift. Impending ice age and racism shenanigans will be summarily removed. O>
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 07:22:49 AM by oren »

Wildcatter

  • New ice
  • Posts: 60
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 48
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #421 on: April 23, 2020, 07:06:52 AM »
Hmmmm. I'm seeing a ton of snow melt across Eurasia with that low pressure system advecting a bunch of heat, possibly in the running for near-record low in Eurasia, by the end of April. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong Arctic.  ;D  NA snow has started its melt, enough to advect some heat + winds over the Hudson in about 4 days. It's a hot year.

Baffin volume record low for April 15 (thanks Wipneus and Oren!), will also get additional heat + and some winds soon.

Also, just for reference, it's still April 22. The first screenshot I attached is Bremen for April 15, as a lot of additional volume this year was stored in the Barents, Kara, and Greenland Seas, per Wipneus an Oren's work in the volume thread. The second screenshot, will be Bremen from April 30, 2019, to provide a frame of reference. And the third, is from today's Bremen - April 22, 2020.

As a digestif, over the next 4-5 days, there is a cyclone forming that will move over the Kara tomorrow, progressing over Severnaya the next day, with tail winds from the low pressure system over Laptev coast. More winds pushing into Barents, some CAB, export in some form or another. Pack over there has seen better days.
Low pressure system moving across Eurasia helping snow melt will come to the Laptev and ESS, New Siberian Islands shortly after. If the forecast works out. Mini cyclone system predicted to form, could be interesting with the volume numbers. Wind effect on coasts could be pretty significant for April.

You may be interested in the Nullschool after seeing the attached images, so here you go.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-85.68,81.75,450/loc=175.423,74.073

Let the games begin.

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 750
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #422 on: April 23, 2020, 09:28:26 AM »
April 17-22.

2019.

Pavel

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #423 on: April 23, 2020, 10:25:50 AM »
Western Siberia today 23.04 and the same day of year in 2019

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1253
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 542
  • Likes Given: 102
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #424 on: April 23, 2020, 10:31:37 AM »
The way I see it is that a lot of old ice was exported to the Barents last year and that is missing from the "core" of the Arctic. If this ice exported goes poof fast then there will be trouble as these were the "reserves" against General Summer. No more "experienced troops" left in the Arctic

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #425 on: April 23, 2020, 11:17:11 AM »
Western Siberia today 23.04 and the same day of year in 2019
I can also see a lot of smoke already getting caught up in that southerly that's blowing into the arctic.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 211
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #426 on: April 23, 2020, 12:12:38 PM »
latest DMI thickness map

Paul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 217
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 44
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #427 on: April 23, 2020, 12:44:23 PM »
The comments on the volume thread really does tell its own story regarding the ice on the Russian side of the basin. The ESS ice really does look in trouble and an early melt is highly possible, similar to what we saw in 2017. I notice on today's worldview update another little bit of fast ice is detatching itself and there is hardly any fast ice there at all this year. If we see any heatwaves like June last year then I can't see it lasting.

The better news is the Beaufort sea ice looks more resilient than last year and there is no real signs of the Beaufort high developing so unless that changes during May I'll be surprised if we see the large amount of open water developing as we did last year.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #428 on: April 23, 2020, 01:21:43 PM »
Five day Forecast Wind + Temp @ Surface
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #429 on: April 23, 2020, 03:21:28 PM »
latest DMI thickness map
Do you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into the CAP CAB this year. As I wrote here before, I believe that the slowdown of the AMOC is causing more pacific water to enter the arctic ocean. That water is also hotter now, so you get a double whammy. And strike three is this missing arm of thick ice that should be protecting the CAB. But that arm is also missing this season.

Increases in the Pacific inflow to the Arctic from 1990 to 2015, and insights into seasonal trends and driving mechanisms from year-round Bering Strait mooring data.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html

I created a new thread for the Bering Strait a while back because I believe that this will become a serious problem for the Arctic. If anyone is interested in discussing this, let's do it there.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2989.0.html
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 03:44:50 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

wdmn

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 550
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 228
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #430 on: April 23, 2020, 04:08:19 PM »
Five day Forecast Wind + Temp @ Surface

Between this wind forecast and Aluminium's most recent post, it's clear that the ice around Svalbard is (going to be) moving around more already than it did all last year (if I remember correctly), when it stayed pressed against the Island and never melted. Could be an early indication that the Atlantic side will have a worse melt season than it did last year.

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #431 on: April 23, 2020, 04:14:12 PM »
latest DMI thickness map
Do you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into the CAP CAB this year. As I wrote here before, I believe that the slowdown of the AMOC is causing more pacific water to enter the arctic ocean. That water is also hotter now, so you get a double whammy. And strike three is this missing arm of thick ice that should be protecting the CAB. But that arm is also missing this season.


i think it's pretty well established that there is already sufficient heat in the CAB to melt all of the CAB ice. The barrier is that the heat exists below the fresh water lens on the surface where the ice exists.

If one wants to make the case that incremental Pacific intrusion into the CAB will make a big dent in the CAB ice, they should consider how that heat gets to the surface of the CAB.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #432 on: April 23, 2020, 04:31:29 PM »
latest DMI thickness map
Do you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into the CAP CAB this year. As I wrote here before, I believe that the slowdown of the AMOC is causing more pacific water to enter the arctic ocean. That water is also hotter now, so you get a double whammy. And strike three is this missing arm of thick ice that should be protecting the CAB. But that arm is also missing this season.


i think it's pretty well established that there is already sufficient heat in the CAB to melt all of the CAB ice. The barrier is that the heat exists below the fresh water lens on the surface where the ice exists.

If one wants to make the case that incremental Pacific intrusion into the CAB will make a big dent in the CAB ice, they should consider how that heat gets to the surface of the CAB.
As you well know, I'm just an amateur, but I think that the water that is entering from the pacific is mostly fresh melt water from the surrounding mountains. So I think that this water should stay on top of the colder fresh water that's already in the basin, no?

Edit: Uniqorn posted an excellent graphic of the salinity on the Pacific side.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg260835.html#msg260835
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 09:41:12 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #433 on: April 23, 2020, 08:42:25 PM »
latest DMI thickness map
Do you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into the CAP CAB this year. As I wrote here before, I believe that the slowdown of the AMOC is causing more pacific water to enter the arctic ocean. That water is also hotter now, so you get a double whammy. And strike three is this missing arm of thick ice that should be protecting the CAB. But that arm is also missing this season.


i think it's pretty well established that there is already sufficient heat in the CAB to melt all of the CAB ice. The barrier is that the heat exists below the fresh water lens on the surface where the ice exists.

If one wants to make the case that incremental Pacific intrusion into the CAB will make a big dent in the CAB ice, they should consider how that heat gets to the surface of the CAB.
As you well know, I'm just an amateur, but I think that the water that is entering from the pacific is mostly fresh melt water from the surrounding mountains. So I think that this water should stay on top of the colder fresh water that's already in the basin, no?

Edit: Unicorn posted an excellent graphic of the salinity on the Pacific side.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg260835.html#msg260835

Uniqourn's video is demonstrating the accumulation of fresh water in the Beaufort Gyre. While the destination of that water is adjacent to the Pacific side, the source of that water is the entire Arctic. The gyre is anomalous because local weather conditions induce a prevailing anticyclonic (clockwise) spin. in the N. Hemisphere, Coriolis force causes the surface water to concentrate under an anticyclonic spin.

That's ~ 20% of the entire freshwater supply on earth already sitting on top of the gyre. Any seasonal incremental freshwater intrusion from local mountain runoff is a drop in the bucket. And that incremental drop is likely to be assimilated into the gyre and not headed for the CAB.

At some point, the weather conditions will reverse the gyre spin and cause a lot of fresh water to be released, but Coriolis forces are almost certainly going to push that eventual current toward N. America during periodic release and be directed toward the N. Atlantic via Baffin Bay.

The CAB is well defended. It won't give up easily.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2314
  • Likes Given: 1953
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #434 on: April 23, 2020, 08:52:53 PM »
A request to all, please avoid quoting long nested quotes unless necessary. You need to edit the quoted post and only leave that material which you are referring to.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 10:07:46 PM by oren »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #435 on: April 23, 2020, 09:02:35 PM »
Uniqourn's video is demonstrating the accumulation of fresh water in the Beaufort Gyre.
You're going way off topic. I was referring to that video because it shows 2 impulses of salt water entering the gyre from the pacific side, right around the time when freezing starts. So I think that's salt water from the pacific that's entering the Chukchi sea when the melting - and thus the supply of fresh water - ends.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 09:08:25 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

uniquorn

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2743
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1240
  • Likes Given: 247
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #436 on: April 23, 2020, 09:26:11 PM »
That animation is a model of salinity at 318m depth. A pulse of increased salinity of that size is likely to come from denser, higher salinity water below.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 10:10:21 PM by uniquorn »

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #437 on: April 23, 2020, 09:39:28 PM »
That animation is a model of salinity at 318m depth. A pulse of increased salinity of that size is likely to come from denser, higher salinity water below.
Thanks for Uniquorn. I had noticed the depth, and that's why I wasn't entirely sure if it could come from the Bering strait. But it does seem to come from that side. Especially that first pulse.

Anyway... this is way out of my league...
Thanks for the reply!

Edit: I can see it now that this pulse is coming from the bottom. Got it! Thanks.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 09:45:59 PM by Freegrass »
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #438 on: April 23, 2020, 09:52:07 PM »
avoid quoting long nested quotes unless absolutely necessary.

"Absolutely necessary" is a tough standard. The quote function is never absolutely necessary. It is however very beneficial in many instances as it enhances efficiency of understanding of simultaneous disparate discussions in a thread.

In the above example (which I assume is the source of your comment), Freegrass has advanced a hypothesis which I felt was flawed and I have liberally cut out extraneous elements along the way. IMO, there is not a lot of "fat' retained from the previous comments.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 10:17:37 PM by Phoenix »

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2314
  • Likes Given: 1953
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #439 on: April 23, 2020, 10:09:30 PM »
Good point Phoenix, "absolutely" removed from my comment. And I was referring to all posters in general, though that particular nested quote (which is ok) was the trigger

Phoenix

  • Guest
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #440 on: April 23, 2020, 10:15:40 PM »
Anyway... this is way out of my league...

The important thing is that you learned something in the process and I'll bet a few lurkers learned something as well. I certainly learned something. It's not a sin to put forth possibilities that are eventually debunked. It's an essential element of the learning process.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #441 on: April 23, 2020, 10:51:40 PM »
The important thing is that you learned something in the process and I'll bet a few lurkers learned something as well. I certainly learned something. It's not a sin to put forth possibilities that are eventually debunked. It's an essential element of the learning process.

So true. If you're not making mistakes, you're not learning.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3202
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 571
  • Likes Given: 386
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #442 on: April 24, 2020, 03:10:37 AM »
"So true. If you're not making mistakes, you're not learning."

Indeed.

I've always thought that students should get asked 'why do you have this F on your record'

Instead they should be challenged with 'why didn't you ever get an F on your record? Did you never really challenge yourself that much?'
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #443 on: April 24, 2020, 11:37:11 AM »
We're losing a lot of ice in the Bering sea as well it seems...
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #444 on: April 24, 2020, 11:41:39 AM »
If one wants to make the case that incremental Pacific intrusion into the CAB will make a big dent in the CAB ice, they should consider how that heat gets to the surface of the CAB.

Back to the science  :)

For starters how about Timmermans et al. (2018)?

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6773

From the abstract:

Quote
The halocline stratification strongly inhibits vertical heat fluxes from these warm layers.

However, the fate of sea ice is acutely sensitive to changes in ocean heat flux of as little as 1 W m−2
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

grixm

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 338
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 202
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #445 on: April 24, 2020, 03:09:40 PM »
It looks like the DMI volume may have passed the season maximum.


Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1613
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 760
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #446 on: April 24, 2020, 04:10:52 PM »
Back to the science  :)

For starters how about Timmermans et al. (2018)?

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6773


Quote
It remains a possibility that some of the NCS warming could be attributed to increased heat flux through the Bering Strait (18) [warm inflows through the Bering Strait have, at least, been shown to be essential in initiating the positive ice-albedo feedback (19)]. Uncertainties in the past decades’ record of heat influx through the Bering Strait (particularly the lack of measurements in the top 20 m) preclude us from ruling this out.
Quote
In the coming years, however, excess BG halocline heat will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth.
If every 8 year old in the world is taught meditation, we will eliminate violence from the world within one generation.
-The Dalai Lama

Davidsf

  • New ice
  • Posts: 35
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 331
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #447 on: April 24, 2020, 04:22:49 PM »
Thank you for the chart grixm. It's worrying to see this year leading in that metric. Though it does appear that recent years bunch together come summer.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3245
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 521
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #448 on: April 24, 2020, 05:30:08 PM »
It looks like the DMI volume may have passed the season maximum.
<snip>
Thank you for the chart grixm. It's worrying to see this year leading in that metric. Though it does appear that recent years bunch together come summer.

This is actually the most alarming graph I've seen in a while.

Wipneus's data has us tracking along the 2010's average for most metrics.  I'm wondering why this one is diverging from that?
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3245
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 521
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #449 on: April 24, 2020, 05:37:34 PM »
We're losing a lot of ice in the Bering sea as well it seems...
... and even at that, the Bering is better off at this time than it has been for several years.

It will melt out entirely without question.  (as far as the ice is concerned) It is mostly a side show, except in so far as it can affect the Chukchi.

Where my concern is focused is the Eurasian peripheral seas - Chukchi, ESS, Laptev & Kara.

 Early melt ponds and open water significantly reduce regional albedo and increase heat capture during a time of rising insolation. If they are attacked early in the melt season, that will have serious implications for the CAB, as they buttress the main pack.
This space for Rent.