The 2020 melting season

[Freegrass]

Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

[VeliAlbertKallio]

Hi, I do not want to give wrong advise to government, what is the best estimate of sea ice situation looking now. Someone was citing very worrying JAXA numbers. Could someone clarify as I do not want to be alarmist. How much there will be ice left exactly. (Of course, we never know what is the exact.) Give me some suggestion what is the best to be expected from this summer how much ice is left?

[blumenkraft]

How much there will be ice left exactly.

If you referring to the future, no one can possibly know.

I do not want to be alarmist.

I would go with historical volume charts ^[1]. If this is not alarming anyone, they are tone deaf anyway.

[1] https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

[oren]

V.A.K, please refer such questions and discussions to the season predictions thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3072.0.html

[Frivolousz21]

 The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.

This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West

I don't know if it will have an impact on the surface of the ice in the Beaufort.

If it lasts as long with the Southerly warm sunny flow that the models show then yeah after a week of that we will see some albedo change.

But in the decade that I have followed this closely.

We have seen this time and time again before May 20th and Everytime no matter how vigorous the sun and WAA is the process is remarkably slow.

Until the land on the way to the arctic is cleared of snow warm surface advection is hard to come by.

Either through the air being modified towards freezing or there being a surface inversion.

I will say on the backside of a top down ridge from 300mb to the surface culminating in a sprawling 1035-1048MB HP won't be featuring a surface inversion with that kind of deep layer mixing and long fetch Southerly wind.

I attached the euro and gem at the peak of the ridge.

Obviously the gem and it's 1060+ mb hp is a joke.

But the euro does peak over 1050mb.

[Paul]

Yep it's not really the temperature that causes the damage at this time of year, it's the winds and how persistent they are blowing in more or less the same direction, coupled with the Beaufort Gyre and I would bet heavily the Beaufort sea will look somewhat different by around the 11th.

It will be interesting too see the Chukchi sea ice also by then, suspect we may see more open water on the Alaskan side in particular by then also.

[Frivolousz21]

Also it's currently 2F(-17C) at Barrow, Alaska(Utqiagvik)
The forecast calls for:

Today: Flurries before 2pm. Areas of freezing fog before 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 16. East wind around 15 mph.

Tonight: Flurries after 2am. Areas of freezing fog after 2am. Mostly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy toward daybreak, with a low around 6. East wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Flurries before 2pm. Areas of freezing fog before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 16. East wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Flurries after 2am. Areas of freezing fog after 2am. Mostly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy toward daybreak, with a low around 6. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Flurries before 2pm. Areas of freezing fog before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. East wind 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 6.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 20.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 26.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.


Utqiagvik AK
 71.3°N 156.81°W (Elev. 0 ft)

Granted that might change later on to something a little warmer. The NWS is typically slow to modify forecasts after 96 hours towards more extremes until the models have a solid consensus under 5 days.


Anyways that's really freaking cold and I know that doesn't speak for the entire NA arctic ocean coast.

My point is wind fracturing of the ice hasn't really taken place in these areas yet.

Open water will appear within the next 7 days.  But it's not like it really matters at this point. 

By now we have learned that snow depth on the ice is everything then overall weather between the end of May and July 15th.

If we see the first two weeks of June start out with a sprawling text book DIPOLE ANOMALY centered on the Southern Canadian Basin, Beaufort sea, and Canadian archipelago 2020 will be right on par with the biggest melt years.

Although it's been what 8 years since we had a dominant June DIPOLE.

So boring...

[Frivolousz21]

Yep it's not really the temperature that causes the damage at this time of year, it's the winds and how persistent they are blowing in more or less the same direction, coupled with the Beaufort Gyre and I would bet heavily the Beaufort sea will look somewhat different by around the 11th.

It will be interesting too see the Chukchi sea ice also by then, suspect we may see more open water on the Alaskan side in particular by then also.

Exactly, especially if new ice production is over where the open water grows. 

Even tho the SSTs in that growing area of open water won't start to really warm up until we cross into June.

However the larger the open water area is the more quickly heat can gather to warm local atmosphere and hit the ice the side.

[Frivolousz21]

Does anyone have any links to real time and historical data of the ice breakup on the Mackenzie river.

Looking back at last year things really took off after May 18th.

But that was quickly squandered in June on.

2007 and 2012 just had insane weather for ice melt.

Expecially 2007.

2007 was amazing.

Ice thickness/snow depth is the only reason 2007 isn't still the record.

[F.Tnioli]

As if 1050+ is not enough to be one helluva big story, though. Especially for May. Lots of places would see it as highest-ever in well over a century of observations, like, for example, Iceland.

[Frivolousz21]

As if 1050+ is not enough to be one helluva big story, though. Especially for May. Lots of places would see it as highest-ever in well over a century of observations, like, for example, Iceland.

Even the euro is now predicting a peak over 1055mb.

[Frivolousz21]

The models are now in very good agreement all the way out to day 7-10.

They are brutal for the ice. 

A straight SUPERLONG WIND FIELD running from Alaska/nw Canada to the North Atlantic.

Conditions will dramatically deteriorate by the 14-15th is this happens.

WILD

[jdallen]

 

The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.

This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West
<snippage>
But the euro does peak over 1050mb.

How fast snow cover disappears is pretty crucial for both the change in albedo and the warm water it dumps into Arctic watersheds.  NA has been lagging behind.  This will catch it up a bit.

This is also going to pull a lot of cold air out of the CAB, to be replaced with warmth and moisture from the south, looks like.

But Day-yum!

[Jim Hunt]

A straight SUPERLONG WIND FIELD running from Alaska/nw Canada to the North Atlantic.

WILD

Welcome back Friv!

[Aluminium]

April 29 - May 4.

2019.

[ajouis]

does anyone think the increasing open water lead in the bering strait is the incursion of a warm current? It looks that way, especially given the shape and speed, but it could just have been a weak area given it's almost dead centre.

[Freegrass]

does anyone think the increasing open water lead in the bering strait is the incursion of a warm current? It looks that way, especially given the shape and speed, but it could just have been a weak area given it's almost dead centre.

That open water was created by wind and movement of the ice.
If the forecast holds, the Chukchi and Bering Seas will start to see positive temperatures at the end of the week.

[Aluminium]

Forecasts constantly show a lot of heat from the Pacific side. It will begin in 4 days. In 2019, similar forecasts appeared 10-14 days later.

[The Walrus]

The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.

This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West
<snippage>
But the euro does peak over 1050mb.

It does not appear so.  The jet stream is dipping very far south just east of the Rocky Mountains.  Consequently, the entire eastern half of North America will experience record-breaking cold this week, and snow is forecast for much of the northeast over the weekend.

How fast snow cover disappears is pretty crucial for both the change in albedo and the warm water it dumps into Arctic watersheds.  NA has been lagging behind.  This will catch it up a bit.

This is also going to pull a lot of cold air out of the CAB, to be replaced with warmth and moisture from the south, looks like.

But Day-yum!

[Phoenix]

Forecasts constantly show a lot of heat from the Pacific side. It will begin in 4 days. In 2019, similar forecasts appeared 10-14 days later.

Fairbanks,AK has a forecast high in the mid 70's on Sunday. That's about 15F above average. Winds are forecast to push some of that heat across the Bering Strait into the Chukchi and ESS.

That's a top ice killer. Heat up the giant rocks (North America, Siberia) and blow the heat over the adjacent ice. Very reliable on the periphery, not so much on the CAB which is far away from the big rocks.

[jdallen]

The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.

<snippage>

It does not appear so.  The jet stream is dipping very far south just east of the Rocky Mountains.  Consequently, the entire eastern half of North America will experience record-breaking cold this week, and snow is forecast for much of the northeast over the weekend.

<snippage>

That snow forecast is going to be highly transient and not material to what's happening north, except in so far as the cold air exiting the Arctic has made room for warmer air to invade it.

Deep cold breakouts this time of year, especially far south does no good for the Arctic.

I will agree that snow cover in NE Canada & the CAA won't be particularly hurt by this event.  However peripheral regions from the Yukon west to Eastern Siberia *will* be.

[Stephan]

I was fascinated by the warm (almost hot) spell that is going to move to the Yamal Peninsula, Western Siberia, on the Kara Sea coast next week in Aluminium's gif.

[Frivolousz21]

The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.

This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West
<snippage>
But the euro does peak over 1050mb.

It does not appear so.  The jet stream is dipping very far south just east of the Rocky Mountains.  Consequently, the entire eastern half of North America will experience record-breaking cold this week, and snow is forecast for much of the northeast over the weekend.

How fast snow cover disappears is pretty crucial for both the change in albedo and the warm water it dumps into Arctic watersheds.  NA has been lagging behind.  This will catch it up a bit.

This is also going to pull a lot of cold air out of the CAB, to be replaced with warmth and moisture from the south, looks like.

But Day-yum!

What does that have to do with the Arctic basin

[Niall Dollard]

I hope the upcoming pre-conditioning is more like what this 12Z ECMWF run is suggesting (than the GFS). GFS has 2m temperatures going positive across a wide area of the Arctic Basin at the end of the run Aluminium posted.

ECMWF still delivers +ve values for the ESS and into the Laptev and slides the big high over to Russian side at the end of the run. See also the very warm surface temps (+20C) in western Siberia moving right up to the snowline.

Of course these forecasts are in the medium range, still over a week away. And may change yet good or bad. 

[Frivolousz21]

I hope the upcoming pre-conditioning is more like what this 12Z ECMWF run is suggesting (than the GFS). GFS has 2m temperatures going positive across a wide area of the Arctic Basin at the end of the run Aluminium posted.

ECMWF still delivers +ve values for the ESS and into the Laptev and slides the big high over to Russian side at the end of the run. See also the very warm surface temps (+20C) in western Siberia moving right up to the snowline.

Of course these forecasts are in the medium range, still over a week away. And may change yet good or bad.

Its really hard to say.

Also don't forget that this time of year there is large duirnal swings in temperature.

So 21z-03z will be the warmest of the NA side from East to West.

Like max temps around 21z closer to GIS and NW Alaska a little after 00z

And 6z-12z on the Russia side.

The GFS is probably overdone

[Paul]

Whichever model you look at, a dipole pattern WILL occur and the ice in the Beaufort sea is going to move with help of the Beaufort Gyre. That is not in doubt.

The usual caveats will apply on just how strong the dipole will be and its duraction. There is more than good enough trends of perhaps a strong blocking high developing over the Arctic with winds being in a dipole position. It will be very interesting how the ice reacts to this type of pattern.

[Freegrass]

It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.

[Frivolousz21]

Whichever model you look at, a dipole pattern WILL occur and the ice in the Beaufort sea is going to move with help of the Beaufort Gyre. That is not in doubt.

The usual caveats will apply on just how strong the dipole will be and its duraction. There is more than good enough trends of perhaps a strong blocking high developing over the Arctic with winds being in a dipole position. It will be very interesting how the ice reacts to this type of pattern.

Its definitely going to open up water somewhere on the Pacific side.

Probably around the Mackenzie Delta and Chuckchi.

It will also kick start some surface melt on the Pacific side and decimate snow cover over NA NW side

[Frivolousz21]

The 00Z gem and GFS are ridiculous with the WAA and ridging.

The 00z euro isn't out yet.

[F.Tnioli]

It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.

Great news! I think, next week won't have unusually rapid total volume drop yet, too. But after ~15th, can be another unprecedented drop, it seems. Aluminium says about those 10...14 days, few posts above. And of course this whole deal about high pressure, too. I checked some air temps and winds couple days ago over ice in southern Greenland, a bit above surface, and it was up to 10C moist air going over rather big area there, which while not extremely abnormal then and there in the past - is still significantly higher than in previous seasons. Etc.

One usual feature of most kinds of collapsing systems - is increased volatility. This rapid drop last week is unusual, and now this rebound is also unusual. Thus, i think maybe we'll get another unusual drop by the end of May, possibly ending the month below 20k km3 in DMI numbers. I wonder how much, exactly, this "collapsing system is more volatile than usual" could apply to sea ice / melting season, though.

[Frivolousz21]

 00Z euro is pretty bad for the ice.

The warm air advection and sunny skies really gets going along the North American coast on the 8th/9th through at least the 15th.

I animated the 00z euro h5 heights/surface pressure graphic and the 850mb temp anomaly graphic.

The animations start at 48 hours to 240 hours in 24 hour increments.

On the temp graphic the red color indicates 10-12C+ anomalies.  The more neon bright reddish color is 12C+
The deep orange 8-10C+
The orange 6C+

A side note right now very strong WAA is pressing almost to the coast of the Kara.  So we will see river ice and snow cover quickly perish all the way to the coast in this area over the next 10 days as well.

The models are consistently showing a 3rd push of very warm air straight into the Arctic basin through the Kara in mid May.

2012 was a year that warmth hit the Kara region and Pacific/NA side in May.

Hmm..

[Frivolousz21]

2007 might be a once a century or even lovey
Longer occurrence.

It was amazing

If we had that today we would have barely above 1 million in area/extent by the min

[Niall Dollard]

Yeah, Summer 2007 had such a prolonged dipole.

We lost so much 2 year old ice and older that we never recovered.

It would be disastrous if that synoptic pattern was to be repeated.

[Freegrass]

Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

[be cause]

funny .. all these free compulsory downloads just helped me run out of data again .. b.c.

[Richard Rathbone]

It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.

DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.

[Freegrass]

It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.

DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.

Maybe the data is useless, but is the trend as well? When DMI says the volume increased, shouldn't we take that as a fact?

[grixm]

It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.

DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.

I've read that thread but my takeaway is not that it's "useless" for this. If it shows the volume going down or up, there are good reasons for that. The input data for the model isn't just random noise, it's actual weather, meaning that if conditions for the ice is bad, it will show the volume going down, and if conditions are good, it will show the volume going up. The absolute historical values may not be as accurate as f.ex. PIOMAS due to different design goals, but it's still a working volume model and the trend should not be neglected.

[Phoenix]

It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.

DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.

I've read that thread but my takeaway is not that it's "useless" for this. If it shows the volume going down or up, there are good reasons for that. The input data for the model isn't just random noise, it's actual weather, meaning that if conditions for the ice is bad, it will show the volume going down, and if conditions are good, it will show the volume going down. The absolute historical values may not be as accurate as f.ex. PIOMAS due to different design goals, but it's still a working volume model and the trend should not be neglected.

If a sensor misreads water vapor in a low cloud as open water, it produces a faulty low reading of ice volume. A subsequent reading w/o the cloud might yield a correct measurement. If your trend has bad data to begin with and concludes with good data, you have a bad trend.

To get a good trend from bad data, you need the data to be equally bad at point A and point B.

[oren]

I ask again: Please don't over-discuss the DMI volume here. It's not reliable enough, neither for past comparisons nor for trend detection. I don't mind the chart posted from time to time. If you have good evidence for its reliability, please post it in the DMI volume thread.

[Phoenix]

I ask again: Please don't over-discuss the DMI volume here. It's not reliable enough, neither for past comparisons nor for trend detection. I don't mind the chart posted from time to time. If you have good evidence for its reliability, please post it in the DMI volume thread.

I disagree. If you are going to allow data to be posted which is well understood (by regs) to be unreliable, then it's important to allow it to be debunked so that less informed readers are not misled by assertions of its reliability. An uneducated lurker coming to this thread mid-stream would get the misleading impression that sea ice volume is currently at an all-time low for the date from the DMI chart.

The most elegant solution seems to involve not posting DMI volume charts in this thread.

[Freegrass]

I though it was interesting, and probably rare, that the temperature these days would still follow the long term average for a while... And then I looked at 2016...

Graphs are 2016, 2020, and 2019

[oren]

I ask again: Please don't over-discuss the DMI volume here. It's not reliable enough, neither for past comparisons nor for trend detection. I don't mind the chart posted from time to time. If you have good evidence for its reliability, please post it in the DMI volume thread.

I disagree. If you are going to allow data to be posted which is well understood (by regs) to be unreliable, then it's important to allow it to be debunked so that less informed readers are not misled by assertions of its reliability. An uneducated lurker coming to this thread mid-stream would get the misleading impression that sea ice volume is currently at an all-time low for the date from the DMI chart.

The most elegant solution seems to involve not posting DMI volume charts in this thread.

And yet, this is my policy: posting the chart is allowed, over-discussing it is discouraged, debunking it (using detailed arguments) is encouraged - in the appropriate thread, which I hope to do myself when I find the time and ability. Yes it is unreliable, no, it is not totally devoid of value, until someone can prove that - in the appropriate thread. Policy disagreements are allowed - in the appropriate thread.

[Phoenix]

For the benefit of any lurkers, here's a link to the UW PIOMAS volume thread. Per Gerontocrat's calculations, current sea ice thickness is greater than it has been since 2003 at this point in the UW indicates volume as being in 6th place all time,with 8.9% more ice than at this time in 2017.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.3250.html

[El Cid]

I though it was interesting, and probably rare, that the temperature these days would still follow the long term average for a while... And then I looked at 2016...

Summer temps are ALWAYS on the long term average (kept there by melting ice which pegs them to zero C despite heavy sun). Some even say that the definition of a BOE should/will be when summer temps go above the averages (basically around 273 K)

[Niall Dollard]

Melt Pond Fraction of sea ice for next Monday 11th. Some ponding begins in the Chukchi.

Plot provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/

This is taken from the last image (+168hrs) from an old run (initial date 4th May). But I have n't seen a later run, yet.

[grixm]

12z Euro

[FishOutofWater]

There's a large heat anomaly building over the Pacific side of the Arctic ocean starting now. It may be linked to the pretty strong end warming in the stratosphere. The Arctic oscillation is reversing from cyclonic to anticyclonic as a large scale pattern of subsidence develops on the Pacific side of the Arctic ocean.

Meanwhile very cold air for this time of year is being driven out of the Arctic in my direction on the east coast of the U.S. This warm Arctic cold eastern North America pattern has happened in recent years with relatively strong end warmings.

[Phoenix]

Truly some exceptional regional melting conditions in the coming days.

The forecast for the massive high pressure system is holding up and the Euro model has it peaking at 1055+ over Victoria Island in the Western CAA. At the same time, there is a low bottoming out at 965 in the Bering Sea adjacent to Siberia. That's an exceptional pressure differential. In between, there are temperatures well above average in Alaska.

That pressure differential and the migration of the low into Siberia is going to facilitate the transport of that Alaskan heat across the Chukchi and well into the ESS. The caveat is that this looks like a short duration event lasting a few days.

The Bering Sea will see sustained heat influx and we should see a rapid decline there in the data thread in the coming weeks.

In the big picture of the Arctic melting season, this is a high intensity, short duration event aimed at the periphery (south of 80N) of the Arctic. The CAB is in much better shape than most recent years as you can see from Oren's recent PIOMAS posting. It's going to take sustained intense melting / transports conditions to make a serious dent in the CAB this year.

[Bruce Steele]

Fish out of water, Good to see you back for the melt season.