The 2020 melting season

[Aluminium]

May 7-11.

2019.

[Frivolousz21]

This is a very non scientific animation of 07,10,11,12,15,16,18,19, and 2020 for May 14th including the GFS forecast for May 14th.

Look, one image is not like the others.

Is amazing, this might be the big breakthrough to see the ice truly decimated if this 🌞 bathe can get the wide basin surface to start melting by the 20th it would be weeks ahead of 2012.

WEEKS!!


I guess you have to click to animate.

How do I just get it to animate?

[Aluminium]

Wrangel Island reached positive dew point.

[oren]

Thank you for the animation and the analysis Friv. It loads automatically if it is narrow enough, I think <700 pixels, but it's actually much better when it requires a click because some members data link is limited or expensive.

[oren]

Here is another Wrangel temp chart.
To Charles_oil's question, the graph shows the month of May so far, with daily high, low and average, and the climate long-term high low and average. Dots are the highest high and lowest low for the date. When the chart touches the dot, it means record high was set this year.
It comes from a very useful Russian-language site, which also has charts of any past month of your choosing.
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982

[SteveMDFP]

There are also some areas around Greenland which certainly have more robust sea ice in far better condition compared to the same date last year. I'm not sure how much of a difference all of that will make going forward.

Most of the ice on the east side of Greenland has been exported from the CAB through the Fram Strait.  It's a contrary indicator for the health of the Arctic ice.  It will keep moving south and be melted in short order.  The ASCAT radar image animations that get periodically posted show this nicely.

[Phoenix]

JAXA #'s are up again. 2020 is ~450K km2 behind 2016 in terms of extent. A good week behind the pacesetter.

[Frivolousz21]

Here is another Wrangel temp chart.
To Charles_oil's question, the graph shows the month of May so far, with daily high, low and average, and the climate long-term high low and average. Dots are the highest high and lowest low for the date. When the chart touches the dot, it means record high was set this year.
It comes from a very useful Russian-language site, which also has charts of any past month of your choosing.
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982

That's not surprising.

I believe it has already been posted

But Pevek, Russia on the ESS shore is straight unprecedented blow torching.

Two record highs.  4-5 days in a row with high temps breaking or running at record highs.

The daily means are now running above 0C.  Just incredible.

The past two days the minimum has been about 5C? 

What the fuck??? Is this weather station really on the ESS coast?

It's May 12th!!!!

The high temps the last two days have been under 1C from a record while the 8th and 9th were records.

I'm blown away. 

The preconditioning taking place is hard to believe

[Frivolousz21]

My last post for today.

I close up screenshots of the terra-367 day image of Pevek from like 4-5 days ago.

You can see the huge regional change when the surface was relatively dry and became wet.

The 3rd image is today. A few hours ago. Very red = very wet= albedo drop.

ITS MAY 12TH

[Aluminium]

Is this weather station really on the ESS coast?

Yes. It's foehn.

[Niall Dollard]

Is this weather station really on the ESS coast?

Yes. It's foehn.

Pevek is sheltered somewhat (especially from an east or southeast direction) located on an inlet.

It does have some form when it comes to reporting high temperatures. It happens only rarely but it has reached 17.1 C in May and even 8.9 C in January.

[Paul]

Some quite astonishing weather occuring for May that is ff
or sure, even though upper air temperatures are not really remarkable(compare to what we usually get in summer) the impacts in the ESS is impressive and alarming. Not sure much melt is happening but you can just see what a bit of wind is doing to the ice and there is already alot of dark open water appearing. Only 2017 had anything similar and the CAB managed to hang on in there but either way, the ice in the ESS is in trouble and we could see a record retreat here.

The storm that is about to hit Svalbard is very impressive although thankfully shortlived, I guess one crumb of comfort, its better for the ice to hit at the edge of the basin than right over the pole.

[blumenkraft]

... Not sure much melt is happening ...

Surface melt observed here:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg263808.html#msg263808

[paolo]

I take the liberty of adding this Worldview image from Pevek

[uniquorn]

Following up on Friv's terra modis post above.
https://go.nasa.gov/2zAOiar, apr24-12, click to run

Corrected Reflectance (Bands 3-6-7)
Temporal coverage: 24 February 2000 - Present

False Color: Red = Band 3, Green = Band 6, Blue = Band 7

This combination is used to map snow and ice. Snow and ice are very reflective in the visible part of the spectrum (Band 3), and very absorbent in Bands 6 and 7 (short-wave infrared, or SWIR). This band combination is good for distinguishing liquid water from frozen water, for example, clouds over snow, ice cloud versus water cloud; or floods from dense vegetation. This band combination is only available for MODIS (Terra) because 70% of the band 6 sensors on the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite failed shortly after launch.

The MODIS Corrected Reflectance imagery is available only as near real-time imagery. The imagery can be visualized in Worldview and the Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS. The sensor resolution is 500 m and 250 m (Bands 1 and 2 have a sensor resolution of 250 m, Bands 3 – 7 have a sensor resolution of 500 m, and Bands 8 - 36 are 1 km. Band 1 is used to sharpen Band 3, 4, 6, and 7), imagery resolution is 250 m, and the temporal resolution is daily.

Snow and Ice
Since the only visible light used in these images (Band 3) is assigned to red, snow and ice appear bright red. The more ice, the stronger the absorption in the SWIR bands, and the more red the color. Thick ice and snow appear vivid red (or red-orange), while small ice crystals in high-level clouds will appear reddish-orange or peach.

Vegetation
Vegetation will appear green in this band combination, as vegetation is absorbent in Bands 3 and 7, but reflective in Band 6. Bare soil and deserts will appear bright cyan in the image since it much more reflective in Band 6 and 7 than Band 3.

Water
Liquid water on the ground will appear very dark since it absorbs in the red and the SWIR, but small liquid water drops in clouds scatter light equally in both the visible and the SWIR, and will therefore appear white. Sediments in water appear dark red.
MODIS Corrected Reflectance vs. MODIS Surface Reflectance

The MODIS Corrected Reflectance algorithm utilizes MODIS Level 1B data (the calibrated, geolocated radiances). It is not a standard, science quality product. The purpose of this algorithm is to provide natural-looking images by removing gross atmospheric effects, such as Rayleigh scattering, from MODIS visible bands 1-7. The algorithm was developed by the original MODIS Rapid Response team to address the needs of the fire monitoring community who want to see smoke. Corrected Reflectance shows smoke more clearly than the standard Surface Reflectance product. In contrast, the MODIS Land Surface Reflectance product (MOD09) is a more complete atmospheric correction algorithm that includes aerosol correction, and is designed to derive land surface properties. In clear atmospheric conditions the Corrected Reflectance product is very similar to the MOD09 product, but they depart from each other in presence of aerosols. If you wish to perform a complete atmospheric correction, please do not use the Corrected Reflectance algorithm. An additional difference is that the Land Surface Reflectance product is only tuned for calculating the reflectance over land surfaces.

Interpretation of redness is the key here.
Heavy contrast of Terra(True colour), may12 in an attempt to show if there is a difference in albedo over the affected area. cffr
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, bering-chukchi-ess, may4-11 for overview, ctr

[Freegrass]

...the ice in the ESS is in trouble and we could see a record retreat here.

Isn't ice going to pile up in the ESS because of that huge anticyclone?
Or will the ice move away from the coast because of those anticyclonic winds that compact the ice pack?

[Freegrass]

We don't talk much about Bering Strait export, but it looks like this week we'll see lots of it. The Bering sea will have a significant drop in extent I presume...

[gandul]

Big change in Alaska snow cover.

Siberia shows it has been under an anomalously warm blob for year to date

[Paul]

...the ice in the ESS is in trouble and we could see a record retreat here.

Isn't ice going to pile up in the ESS because of that huge anticyclone?
Or will the ice move away from the coast because of those anticyclonic winds that compact the ice pack?

As it stands the winds are pushing the ice away from the Siberian landmass and partly away from the little fast ice we actually do have this year. Any subtle changes in wind direction may close those holes up again somewhat(just have to see where this high ends up) but the ice looks largely thin in the ESS this year with only some slightly larger blocks.

Reckon the ESS is going to be shocking early melt season story after last years early Beaufort sea retreat.

[blumenkraft]

Comparison of 2019 vs. 2020

[Freegrass]

...the ice in the ESS is in trouble and we could see a record retreat here.

Isn't ice going to pile up in the ESS because of that huge anticyclone?
Or will the ice move away from the coast because of those anticyclonic winds that compact the ice pack?

As it stands the winds are pushing the ice away from the Siberian landmass and partly away from the little fast ice we actually do have this year. Any subtle changes in wind direction may close those holes up again somewhat(just have to see where this high ends up) but the ice looks largely thin in the ESS this year with only some slightly larger blocks.

Reckon the ESS is going to be shocking early melt season story after last years early Beaufort sea retreat.

I agree that the ESS is in terrible shape this year. And - correct me if I'm wrong - the cause of this is the counterclockwise motion of the ice pack this winter. So I'm very curious to see if by the end of the week a change in that rotation will have filled the ESS back up again.

Edit: Uniquorn just posted a video of this years freezing season, and it clearly shows the counterclockwise movement I was talking about. Most of it happened last month when we had that huge export out of the Fram. This pulled a lot of ice out of the ESS as well, that I think could be (partially?) filled up again this week.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883

[uniquorn]

Edit: Uniquorn just posted a video of this years freezing season, and it clearly shows the counterclockwise movement I was talking about.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883

You may be confusing ice rotation with a swath rotation artifact on ASCAT which is enhanced by that interferometry method. Beaufort and Western CAA/CAB don't show significant anti-clockwise motion up to now.

[Freegrass]

Beaufort and Western CAA/CAB don't show significant anti-clockwise motion up to now.

True. It only happened for a short period of time, when we had that big Fram export event. But it was significant enough to clear the ESS from a lot of ice.

[uniquorn]

wipneus regional extent and area, ESS, may11

[Freegrass]

ESS today on worldview.

[uniquorn]

Edit: Uniquorn just posted a video of this years freezing season, and it clearly shows the counterclockwise movement I was talking about.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883

Well let's just leave it that I don't agree with your interpretation of that animation.

[Freegrass]

Edit: Uniquorn just posted a video of this years freezing season, and it clearly shows the counterclockwise movement I was talking about.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883

Well let's just leave it that I don't agree with your interpretation of that animation.

What is it they say about democracy? That it's an organized disagreement? 

[Frivolousz21]

Like what the??

Where is the canopy of clouds??

Almost the entire Arctic basin is sunny.

On May 12th that's unheard of

[Paul]

Well a large part of the basin is sunny but near the pole and at times the Beaufort sea its cloudier, I don't think that is unusual in itself especially with high pressure in charge.

Obviously what is unusual is just how high the pressure is in this high(around 1045MB) and the 'warm' air for the time of year that is inside it, if albeit the cavet the GFS 2M temps may be overdoing it somewhat basing on other discussions on here.

Indications from the model this high will transfer towards the ESS/Laptev and may finally weaken and a fairly slack set up may occur. The coldest conditions likely to be in the Beaufort sea and ice drifting along the Beaufort Gyre may slow down also and it may start covering any open water there. Either way, I'll be very surprised if we see a repeat of last year in the Beaufort and it will be all eyes on the ESS.

I also think it's too simple saying high pressure is bad for the ice and low pressure is good for the ice, I think the issue with this high for me is that the air has warmed up to above average levels for the time of year and its at lower latitudes of the basin so sunshine damage may play more a part than if the high was over the pole itself.

[ReverendMilkbone]

From Climate reanalyzer, 10 day NH temp anomaly...wow.

[Phoenix]

Over in the data thread, Gerontocrat is emphasizing the positive Arctic temperature anomaly.

For the benefit of lurkers and newcomers, I would like to emphasize that the Arctic is still largely a wilderness and we are short on real temperature data. There is considerable disagreement between the GFS and Euro models about the temperature data with the GFS running notably warmer in general.

Niall recently posted an actual data point from the research vessel Polarstern demonstrating that the actual temperature in a single location was 4C lower than what the GFS model was spitting out for the same time and location.

In the case of temperatures, the data thread is not sharing observed results. Nor is it a model consensus. It's just one version of a story with multiple perspectives.

My hunch is that the lower temperatures from the euro model are more accurate, but I acknowledge that I have a bias that I want that data to be more accurate. I don't want to see the imminent demise of the ice and I'm interested in the possibility that something something approaching a BOE is still avoidable.

[pearscot]

Holy shit this year is off to a wild start. I was actually amazed when I compared the Bering Strait this year with 2012...they look almost identical on this day. The Arctic just keeps surprising.

I can't wait for the clouds to clear above northern Greenland so I can take a look at its north shore. I did a VERY rough measurement with the Worldview distance tool, and the large iceberg traversing the Fram has gone roughly ~280km south (since leaving the main pack).

[Phoenix]

From Climate reanalyzer, 10 day NH temp anomaly...wow.

Again, for the benefit of those learning....

The GFS image being presented here is comparing forecasted temperatures from the GFS model to the average of years 1979-2000. The midpoint of that range is 30 years ago.

The earth as a whole is increasing in temperature by ~ 0.2C / decade or ~ 0.6C in the last 30 years. With Arctic amplification, I'll swag it and say the Arctic has increased by ~ 1.5C in the last 30 years. In a normal year (by current standards), the average situation for this image is a significant positive temperature anomaly. We should expect to see a lot of red in this image on a regular basis.

On top of that, we throw in the potential errors in the current GFS model itself as mentioned in my previous post.

The truth is that we probably do have some positive temperature anomaly in the Arctic relative to even recent years, but perhaps not as much "wow" as the image suggests.

[bbr2315]

From Climate reanalyzer, 10 day NH temp anomaly...wow.

Again, for the benefit of those learning....

The GFS image being presented here is comparing forecasted temperatures from the GFS model to the average of years 1979-2000. The midpoint of that range is 30 years ago.

The earth as a whole is increasing in temperature by ~ 0.2C / decade or ~ 0.6C in the last 30 years. With Arctic amplification, I'll swag it and say the Arctic has increased by ~ 1.5C in the last 30 years. In a normal year (by current standards), the average situation for this image is a significant positive temperature anomaly. We should expect to see a lot of red in this image on a regular basis.

On top of that, we throw in the potential errors in the current GFS model itself as mentioned in my previous post.

The truth is that we probably do have some positive temperature anomaly in the Arctic relative to even recent years, but perhaps not as much "wow" as the image suggests.

The errors I mention are re: futurecast and would not apply to re-analysis / hindcast, FYI.

[pearscot]

I always recommend reading the forecast of the few weather stations around there. The detailed discussion for Barrow always gives me a better understanding of what's going on in the interior and north of Alaska. It's good for a more broad outlook over just visual references.

for instance:

.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast combined with a weather front over the West Coast and Interior is causing easterly gales of the Arctic Coast along with blowing snow. Expect winds to slowly decrease tonight as the front weakens. This front is causing rain over most of the West Coast south of Kotzebue that
will move west and taper off this evening.

[Frivolousz21]

I said something about it yesterday and I'm not trying to be rude but who cares what the Euro or the GFS say about surface temps.

It's totally moot when we have an almost cloudless basin which is almost impossible to find anytime of year.

The only thing that matters right now is preconditioning of the basin surface how fast the land snow melts.

The GFS is probably too warm.

But the ESS and laptev gave been above 0C because the surface is wet.

This is so unprecedented.  This surface darkening didn't happen in 2012 until the 6th-12th of JUNE!

IN 2007 IT HAPPENED BETWEEN THE 4TH-9TH OF JUNE.

IN EVERY OTHER YEAR IT HAPPENED AROUND THE 12TH-18TH OF JUNE OR LATER.


CLICK TO ANIMATE!

THE DARKENING HAPPENED FASTER ON THE RUSSIAN SIDE WHERE WAA WAS QUICK.

UNDER THE RIDGE ITS SLOWER BUT HAPPENING THERE JUST FROM DAILY INSOLATION.

AMAZING

[Phoenix]

The GFS is probably too warm.

I appreciate your concurrence.

The purpose of my posts are to provide less informed readers some guidance not to put too much faith in the accuracy of GFS forecasts being provided here and on the data thread. Seems you agree that these forecasts are overstating temperatures.

[Phoenix]

The cyclone around Svalbard is currently at peak impact at the moment in terms of pushing a shitload of ice toward Fram. If there is any silver lining, it's that the eye of the storm doesn't travel north of Svalbard. Would have made a bad situation worse.

Looking forward to that sucker heading south and getting out of Dodge. It's definitely taking a bite.

[peterlvmeng]

Considering blocking pattern, the melting pond will be more and more. The melting pond is a signal of massive melt. The weather of MAY is important to decide the ice compared with June and July. June and July is common high speed melting months. However, the sensitivity of ice is high in May.

[Frivolousz21]

The GFS is probably too warm.

I appreciate your concurrence.

The purpose of my posts are to provide less informed readers some guidance not to put too much faith in the accuracy of GFS forecasts being provided here and on the data thread. Seems you agree that these forecasts are overstating temperatures.

Yeah it's always done that.

[peterlvmeng]

Actually, 2016 also shows an early melting pond in May. Although the summer is cool, it still leads to the second lowest sea ice extent. So I wonder that if the melting pond happens early in MAY it will have a greater chance to break the record even if the summer is not the hottest. However this summer will not be as cool as 2016. Together with the early melting pond, may be the BOE is coming.

[Frivolousz21]

Considering blocking pattern, the melting pond will be more and more. The melting pond is a signal of massive melt. The weather of MAY is important to decide the ice compared with June and July. June and July is common high speed melting months. However, the sensitivity of ice is high in May.

This is everything.

Historically actual surface ice melt anywhere from 70N+ doesn't take place until July.

With limited bottom ice melt in August between 70-80N.

In the 90s the surface ice melt onset steadily started earlier and earlier.

But the big change first happened in 2007.

Really starting in the fall of 2006 because there was unprecedented loss of MYI into the NATL that winter.

Well almost all of the very limited snowfall in the Arctic basin takes place between September through November..

Between January and April essentially little to no snow falls and what does tends to sublimate.

A lot of the dry Sandy like snow also gets blown into ridges between thicker myi flows that press together essentially forming small 3-20M high mtn ranges of ice.
Or gets blown into the water when floes get roughed up in wind events.

Anyways in 2007 adding to the insult was a ruthless massive top down ridge that blew up right at the start of June that was anomalous from 300MB to the surface meaning dry sinking air that quickly warmed up as soon as surface albedo sank.

This brought us 1.5-2.5CM a day melt from the Beaufort to the ESS on the surface. 

The sun was 24/7 so the subsurface quickly warmed to -1C to 1.5C by the first week of July.

For every 0.5C of warmth about 1CM of ice is lost per day.

So by July first we had 2CM top melt and 2-4CM bottom melt wrecking 3-3.5M ice.

However unlike be every other year on record the ridge didn't break down and vanish.

It weakened but strengthen over and over all summer.

A new normal was born.




My point is even between 2007-2019 the solar energy was mostly moot for melt because albedo, clouds, snow cover, what have you.


Can you imagine if we see widespread surface ice melt by the 20th-25th of May instead of getting established after June 15th.

That's 3 weeks of extra melt that's 3 weeks of early July level solar energy not being floated back to space by 0.85 albedo versus 0.55-0.60 albedo where 2-3X more energy is not only melting ice but warming the ice to the melt point and warning the sub surface.

Many of us have preached for years it will take a May solar beating like June 07 to blow by 2012 like 07 blew by 2005.

[thejazzmarauder]

Actually, 2016 also shows an early melting pond in May. Although the summer is cool, it still leads to the second lowest sea ice extent. So I wonder that if the melting pond happens early in MAY it will have a greater chance to break the record even if the summer is not the hottest. However this summer will not be as cool as 2016. Together with the early melting pond, may be the BOE is coming.

2016 could end up being a good analog. Early melt ponding is clearly favorable for ice loss later in the season, and if the ice is sufficiently pre-conditioned over the next week, we could set an extent low this year. That said, a BOE is still unlikely; the ice is too thick in too many places. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Frivolousz21]

Actually, 2016 also shows an early melting pond in May. Although the summer is cool, it still leads to the second lowest sea ice extent. So I wonder that if the melting pond happens early in MAY it will have a greater chance to break the record even if the summer is not the hottest. However this summer will not be as cool as 2016. Together with the early melting pond, may be the BOE is coming.

Not sure when May 2016 kicked off but up to the 12th it was cloudy in 2016.

By the 18 of May 2016 some clearing was evident but only showed up for one day and only the far Southern ESS had any surface melting.

After that it was cloudy all over until the 1st of June with the ESS showing some melt and then it's cloudy again after until at least June 10th.


The amount of clearing we have right now is so jacked up its a pinch me is this real?

I guarantee you scientists AT NSIDC, HAMBURG, BREMEN, MOSIAC, JAXA, IARC, PIOMAS, ESA, NASA, CSA AND SO ON ARE ALL LOOKING AT THIS GOING OH SH$#

[jdallen]

I agree with friv, and think one additional ingredient here is the amount of ice that will be sent down the death zone past Svalbard and out the Fram strait. We're looking at 4+ days of strong surface winds exporting ice. Just look at how packed the isobars are on this output and how well they are positioned to export ice.

That ain't no joke that is crazy you're going to see open water come in the kara or the laptev because of all this

Chiming in.

Add Ekman pumping.  The ice is far more mobile than previous years, so it will not prevent transfer of force from the wind to the water below.  We should see significant mixing of the column under those regions where the wind in this dipole are *already* at work.  The CAB immediately north of Svalbard will be shattered more thoroughly than we would normally see before July.

The High combined with the storm over Svalbard create a near perfect hammer and anvil to shatter the Arctic.  The only question remaining is just how severe the damage will be.

To underscore what Friv said earlier about albedo,  we are talking about conditions being created (dropping albedo from 85 down to 60) which will more than double the amount of insolation being captured by the ice.   It will be doing that about a month earlier than typical, during increasing insolation.

Certainly we've seen ice get beaten up with lowered albedo, but mostly that is happening after the solar peak in late June, so the ice is basically riding the end of a wave (diminishing insolation) after it's broken.

We may be about to see that equation shifted a full month, so that those late July conditions are reached in late June instead - at peak insolation. In short, the ice will be getting pulled into the "wave" of insolation just as it's breaking, with pretty serious consequences.

If that happens, it will be hard *not* to overtake the 2012 extent and area losses. 

[aperson]

Environment Canada's 2020-05-12 18z Analysis put the high at 1043mb and the low at 958mb. An 85mb gradient, impressive!

[Phoenix]

winds peaking at 58 kts along the coast of ne greenland. 

[blumenkraft]

But the ESS and laptev gave been above 0C because the surface is wet.

QED!

Meltponding in the north-west of Wrangel Island!

[peterlvmeng]

The positive AO has last for almost four months. The AO will be likely negative in the coming months considering the balancing of statistical average. Another factor is ocean temperature although influenced by the solar energy. The sea surface temperature is governed by the weather. The deep water is governed by the AMOC. I am not sure whether the current will be helpful in melting the sea ice.

[Csnavywx]

The GFS is probably too warm.

I appreciate your concurrence.

The purpose of my posts are to provide less informed readers some guidance not to put too much faith in the accuracy of GFS forecasts being provided here and on the data thread. Seems you agree that these forecasts are overstating temperatures.

I feel a need to chime in here. I use these models on a daily basis as a meteorologist.

The FV3-GFS was released last June and resulted in some major changes to the way the model handles surface temperatures. The net result left the model with a temporally increasing cold bias (the most severe at longer lead times).

This is less in the last 7 days (-0.25C over the Arctic Ocean), but still present as of now.

It can be useful (at the micro or mesoscale) to compare surface stations to model temperatures, but keep in mind that most modeling assimilates the majority of the data they use from satellites. The lack of surface stations used to be an issue, but with the advent of much higher quality and density of remote sensing from satellites, this has changed significantly.

If there's a difference in output between the GFS and EC in the short range, that's due to differences in how those two models assimilate and handle bias correction. Based on the obvious surface melting signature from MODIS on worldview though, we can surmise that at least the short-range forecasts from the GFS have been verifying well over the Chukchi/ESS/Laptev wrt the extent of above freezing temperatures.