The 2020 melting season

[be cause]

Thank you Csnavywx .. glad to have you corroborate . b.c.

[Paladiea]

The positive AO has last for almost four months. The AO will be likely negative in the coming months considering the balancing of statistical average. Another factor is ocean temperature although influenced by the solar energy. The sea surface temperature is governed by the weather. The deep water is governed by the AMOC. I am not sure whether the current will be helpful in melting the sea ice.

Actually I was just pondering this, and it seems like the AMOC is experiencing a negative feedback in terms of affecting the Arctic ice. This is probably because it's expending most of the energy that normally would go into the Arctic on Greenland's ice. Following this reasoning, I'd expect the AMOC to have less and less of an impact on the Arctic as the years progress.

[Phoenix]

The amount of clearing we have right now is so jacked up its a pinch me is this real?

I guarantee you scientists AT NSIDC, HAMBURG, BREMEN, MOSIAC, JAXA, IARC, PIOMAS, ESA, NASA, CSA AND SO ON ARE ALL LOOKING AT THIS GOING OH SH$#

We are all going, "OH SH$#". Now that we are belatedly realizing that the fate of humanity has been dependent on cloud cover in the Arctic in May. Where did I put that bucket list.....

[Frivolousz21]

I agree with friv, and think one additional ingredient here is the amount of ice that will be sent down the death zone past Svalbard and out the Fram strait. We're looking at 4+ days of strong surface winds exporting ice. Just look at how packed the isobars are on this output and how well they are positioned to export ice.

That ain't no joke that is crazy you're going to see open water come in the kara or the laptev because of all this

Chiming in.

Add Ekman pumping.  The ice is far more mobile than previous years, so it will not prevent transfer of force from the wind to the water below.  We should see significant mixing of the column under those regions where the wind in this dipole are *already* at work.  The CAB immediately north of Svalbard will be shattered more thoroughly than we would normally see before July.

The High combined with the storm over Svalbard create a near perfect hammer and anvil to shatter the Arctic.  The only question remaining is just how severe the damage will be.

To underscore what Friv said earlier about albedo,  we are talking about conditions being created (dropping albedo from 85 down to 60) which will more than double the amount of insolation being captured by the ice.   It will be doing that about a month earlier than typical, during increasing insolation.

Certainly we've seen ice get beaten up with lowered albedo, but mostly that is happening after the solar peak in late June, so the ice is basically riding the end of a wave (diminishing insolation) after it's broken.

We may be about to see that equation shifted a full month, so that those late July conditions are reached in late June instead - at peak insolation. In short, the ice will be getting pulled into the "wave" of insolation just as it's breaking, with pretty serious consequences.

If that happens, it will be hard *not* to overtake the 2012 extent and area losses.

Absolutely nailed what is at stake attm.

Just browsing through Modis looking at when the majority of the Arctic basin went from dry/semi dry surface to wet by year.

With about 80 percent being the magic mark.

The data runs from 2000-present

2000- third week July
2001- third week July
2002- second week July
2003- last week June
2004-first week July
2005- third week of June(had huge sunny skies basin wide in mid June)
2006-July first week
2007- first week June
2008- second week June(mid May Western CAB/Beaufort
2009- third & fourth week June
2010- between first and second week June
2011-second week June
2012- end of first week June
2013- end of June
2014-end of June/first week of July
2015-third to fourth week June
2016-third week June
2017-first week July
2018-fourth week June
2019- end of June early July

2020- ?


Notice not one year has May.

Why?

We have never had a basin wide sunny wall to wall ridge between 15th-30th of May.

The major ridging has appeared in early June.

It might be to early to see the surface albedo collapse.

And by the time this pattern changes we might be already to early to have made a basin wide dent.

However from the pole to the Chuchki, ESS, laptev, Kara, and Atlantic side will see albedo drop from this.

The question is how far well that penetrate towards the CAB.

Imagine if this pattern evolves into a dipole anomaly the last week of May that holds 2007 style into deep June.

That is how we have a basin wide collapse of the remaining ice structure.

[Frivolousz21]

I also want to say there is decent correlation between nuetral Enso conditions towards weak Nina that correlates with the negative AO, negative NAO summers of 05, 07-12...

It's not perfect 1996 had the most anomalous vortex in the modern record with nuetral/weak Nina.

We have had a weak Oni nino through March.

However real time conditions are going straight towards a big Nina event.

Does that matter?

I don't know .

Why did we have 05, 07-12 with historic dipole ridging during the summer months and anchored over GIS.

We have had major ridging events like 2015 July the warmest July on record in the Arctic that semi-extended to GIS.

However after 2015 we have been far more reliant on huge WAA incursions from land to decimate ice versus good ole sun bathing of the golden era 05-12 minus 06 and 09.

2009 had dipolish but 2009 had above normal snow cover that retarded the major surface heating.

2011 on the other hand had almost no snow cover all over so the Southern CAB almost bit the dust

My two favorite thickness images ever


I HAVE HAD TO SCREAM FROM THE MOUNTAIN TOPS TO GET 2011 THE RECOGNITION IT DESERVES.

April 2011 not much thickness in the CAB but 2.5-3.5M

And May typically sees ice thickening above 80N.

But holy smokes...if 2011 didn't have August go cloudy and cold.

Like when did all that CAB ice melt?

Anytime it was warm enough because by early June snow cover was gone over most of the cab.

Was there a major fire at some point darkening the cab?

This is why we desperately need a reliable snow thickness in the Arctic.

I want to see a total ice collapse so maybe funding will go back into satellite and buoy expenses.

[Frivolousz21]

The amount of clearing we have right now is so jacked up its a pinch me is this real?

I guarantee you scientists AT NSIDC, HAMBURG, BREMEN, MOSIAC, JAXA, IARC, PIOMAS, ESA, NASA, CSA AND SO ON ARE ALL LOOKING AT THIS GOING OH SH$#

We are all going, "OH SH$#". Now that we are belatedly realizing that the fate of humanity has been dependent on cloud cover in the Arctic in May. Where did I put that bucket list.....

 Lol no but most of us live for anomalous events never seen before.

I'd like to see what it will take to collapse the basin ice near melt out.

[PragmaticAntithesis]

<nested quotes snipped>

Absolutely nailed what is at stake attm.

Just browsing through Modis looking at when the majority of the Arctic basin went from dry/semi dry surface to wet by year.

With about 80 percent being the magic mark.

The data runs from 2000-present

2000- third week July
2001- third week July
2002- second week July
2003- last week June
2004-first week July
2005- third week of June(had huge sunny skies basin wide in mid June)
2006-July first week
2007- first week June
2008- second week June(mid May Western CAB/Beaufort
2009- third & fourth week June
2010- between first and second week June
2011-second week June
2012- end of first week June
2013- end of June
2014-end of June/first week of July
2015-third to fourth week June
2016-third week June
2017-first week July
2018-fourth week June
2019- end of June early July

2020- ?


Notice not one year has May.

<snip>

There may be no Mays, but 2007, 2010(?) and 2012 got first week of June, which is pretty close! Even if the albedo drop technically breaks into May, it won't be much worse than 2007. Not exactly comforting, but only barely going into uncharted waters is a lot better than being tossed in the ocean!

[Phoenix]

Lol no but most of us live for anomalous events never seen before.

I'd like to see what it will take to collapse the basin ice near melt out.

Your enthusiasm for anomalous events is duly noted and entertaining Friv. And I totally appreciate and respect your contributions to the subject matter here.

At this point, in terms of the expectations of the readers of this thread, avoiding a BOE may be a more anomalous outcome than seeing a BOE. It would be anomalous in terms of humans getting their act together and proactively addressing a problem.

Selfishly, I hope that your wish to see an Arctic melt out goes unfulfilled. Nothing personal. Just pulling for a different kind of anomaly.

[Phoenix]

According to Windy.com, the max wind speeds per the ECMWF on the NE Greenland coast are now 85 knots. That's 98 mph or equivalent to a class 2 hurricane.

I'm not big on hyperbole, but this isn't funny. Have a look.

https://www.windy.com/-Wind-gusts-gust?gust,80.069,-6.372,5,m:fTAaftZ

[gerontocrat]

Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.

Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.

You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.

[SimonF92]

Bottom melt? 

[Freegrass]

Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Besides the high temperatures on the ice, the arctic seems to calm down again in the coming week. So this is the last one until the next big event.

High temperatures are reaching all the way to the coast of Siberia, so it looks like the snow there will be mostly gone by the end of the week.

Enjoy...

[Freegrass]

Barents sea ice on May 4, and today. 

https://go.nasa.gov/2T4lEFP

[Burnrate]

We won't sea ice pretty soon.

[Phoenix]

Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.

Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.

You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.

How are you defining reality in the Arctic Ocean ? There aren't a lot of actual thermometers taking measurements there.

[blumenkraft]

As mentioned by Csnavywx earlier today, it's Satellites helping us out, Phoenix.   

In other news, Polarstern readings and GFS are very much in agreement that it's -0.3˚C there today.

Edit: Oops, missed the minus. Thanks, Uniquorn for the correction

[oren]

Let's not get bogged down in the discussion on GFS long-term forecast reliability. It can be continued elsewhere. And bear in mind newbies and lurkers are not easily misled, especially after reading several warnings on the same issue.

[uniquorn]

that's -0.3C at Polarstern 
+0.4C from nullschool (to the nearest hour)

To save endless discussion, someone could document nullschool temperature for Polarstern coordinates since october and produce the figures (not me). Or from now on would still be useful.
Scroll down to the bottom of the sailwx page and click on track history

max wind speed for PS today was 45kt, 83.34km/hr

[Csnavywx]

Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.

Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.


You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.

How are you defining reality in the Arctic Ocean ? There aren't a lot of actual thermometers taking measurements there.

Most data ingestion and assimilation is from satellites (see earlier post).

[Csnavywx]

Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.

Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.

You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.

That changed when the GFS was upgraded to the FV3-GFS on June 12, 2019. It's often been running a cold bias since then.

[Frivolousz21]

Barents sea ice on May 4, and today. 

https://go.nasa.gov/2T4lEFP

Pretty noticeable change

Although that ice according to smos was only a .25M thick anyways.

[Frivolousz21]

Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.

Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.

You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.

How are you defining reality in the Arctic Ocean ? There aren't a lot of actual thermometers taking measurements there.

There is the MOSIAC and the are currently 7 buoys in the Western CAB/Beaufort currently reporting surface temps.

Plus all of the twice a day weather ballon soundings along the Arctic coast. 

There are 5 of them along the Eurasian coast.  Plus 3 more on islands.

We have a weather station on Wrangel island.

There is Barrow Alaska, another along the Mackenzie Delta, eureka, alert, resolute, weather stations on the parry island or whatever its called.

There is like 6-7 along GIS.


So plenty of data up there.

[Frivolousz21]

As mentioned by Csnavywx earlier today, it's Satellites helping us out, Phoenix.   

In other news, Polarstern readings and GFS are very much in agreement that it's -0.3˚C there today.

Edit: Oops, missed the minus. Thanks, Uniquorn for the correction

Which makes sense.

Check out the two day surface brightness change.

That's a lot of darkening over the central Arctic basin in two days from the 11-13th.


CLICK TO ANIMATE.

[Frivolousz21]

Bottom melt? 

Where is that?

That shows like 12-15CM of snow.

Which is nothing

[Freegrass]

Barents sea ice on May 4, and today. 

https://go.nasa.gov/2T4lEFP

Pretty noticeable change

Although that ice according to smos was only a .25M thick anyways.

True. That was a lot of loose rubble there. But still... that's a lot of ice that's gone so early in the season...

It'll be more interesting to see how much of the thick ice that got piled up against Svalbard will get flushed down the Fram... I think that'll be all gone by now...

[Frivolousz21]

Pevek Russia still torching.

Another record high on the 13th.  That's 3 in 6 days.

[Aluminium]

May 9-13.

2019.

[uniquorn]

Bottom melt? 

Where is that?
That shows like 12-15CM of snow.
Which is nothing

Estimation of Mosaic Thermistor buoy ice and snow depth. Snow depth turns out to be tricky to calculate from temperature readings alone.
Here are some details of snow depth at deployment of mosaic buoys during april, many of which are much less than 'nothing'
Drift animation shows rough location of the mosaic buoy array, though it is larger than the 3 buoys shown. Svalbard bottom right.

[Aluminium]

Something happens this year. Lack of snow in Siberia leads to extreme heatwaves there. And this heat may reach the Arctic Ocean.

[Niall Dollard]

To save endless discussion, someone could document nullschool temperature for Polarstern coordinates since october and produce the figures (not me). Or from now on would still be useful.

I have done some comparison (last 48hrs) and to avoid clutteriing this thread, I have placed the results in this thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3084.0.html

[Frivolousz21]

I really miss the Npole Cam.

I wish this community was big enough that we could afford to pool our money together and have a surface only buoy that didn't have any sub surface instruments that made it to delicate.

A surface only one could be made so it sat on a ovalish platforn that could float or be partially or fully embed in ice and the center part could move say upwards of 30-45° from a 0° center mass to always stay balanced and upright.

And that center elongated rectangular block would house a digital weather station that would have sensors for temp wind, humidity, and irradiance measuring.

This block would be 2M high from it's base where it meets the oval base.

The oval base would be waterproof.  Because it would be housing the huge think Tesla like battery. Probably not as big but something that could be fully charged by fall and operate all winter.

The oval base would have to be big enough to have solar panels built in that would be slightly curved with the base shape but also have lightweight tubing underneath that could push the panel up at the top so the panel meets the 25-35° solar altitude for battery charging and direct Power to run the two 4K video cams that could record up to 120 fps in raw output that can be post processed to handle the solar reflection and not be blown out.


And if we really got some $$.

We could have a very sturdy built quad drone that would also carry a 4 or 8k camera that would record at least 30fps.

And could land and dock INSIDE the base and recharge while also housing the computer tech to remotely upload the data iideally on starlink and not some super expensive legacy connection.

How much would it cost us to have this designed, tested and built.


We would really want this to run for 5-7 years hopefully 10.

If it happens to float out the fram we can have it picked up and refitted, refurbished with better tech and sent back to the Beaufort.

It's very clear to me that the first world governments and science agencies won't even bother with this kind of text
Tech even under 200k

Hopefully with the falcon heavy being cheaper and cheaper the costs for next gen remote sensing can go down.

For instance the modis/amsr2 1km/5km Sia product is amazing.

Expecially on days where the basin is clear and that 1km modis resolution is used


THOUGHTS

[pearscot]

I think it would be very possible to build something fully autonomous to do a lot of that. I highly recommend you check the youtube channel RC Test Flight. His work is amazing and he 3d prints his own autonomous rovers/solar powered planes. Really, the hardest thing I foresee is keeping the batteries warm enough to hold a charge in the winter. If there's one thing batteries hate, it's extreme cold.

Anyways, it looks like it's fairly clear over a large swath of the Arctic. I keep expecting to see more melt in the Bearing Strait, but I can't figure out what is going on there.

I would like to add this, as the wind has certainly played a role. I also think this emphasized just how mobile the entire pack is right now:

[oren]

Friv, I wholeheartedly agree. The forum, some sponsor, some university, some billionaire, some country, some organization, humanity, should be filling the Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic and Greenland glaciers with devices to measure and photo them in various ways. Billions and trillions available for banks and oilmen but very little if anything for real-time localized Cryosphere monitoring.
We an discuss the achievable technical details, tradeoffs, and some fantasies, But not on this thread. Some existing or new buoy thread should be the proper venue.

[Freegrass]

The only way is up! 

I've added 2019 and 2016 for comparison. These temperatures are highly unusual. The only year that is comparable is 2006 (last image), but I don't remember 2006 as being a disaster for the ice...

[gerontocrat]

Friv, I wholeheartedly agree. The forum, some sponsor, some university, some billionaire, some country, some organization, humanity, should be filling the Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic and Greenland glaciers with devices to measure and photo them in various ways. Billions and trillions available for banks and oilmen but very little if anything for real-time localized Cryosphere monitoring.
We an discuss the achievable technical details, tradeoffs, and some fantasies, But not on this thread. Some existing or new buoy thread should be the proper venue.

I thought of an "If only........" thread, and after a few seconds contemplation it became hhhuuuuggge.

[uniquorn]

uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, bering/chukchi, apr1-may13

[igs]

The only way is up! 

I've added 2019 and 2016 for comparison. These temperatures are highly unusual. The only year that is comparable is 2006 (last image), but I don't remember 2006 as being a disaster for the ice...

It's all about permanent relentless pre-conditioning until the hammer falls.


After 2006 came 2007 and i'd be surprised if 2006 didn't have an impact on 2007 events.


Only that the hammer fell on solid ground in 2007 while the next one will hit japanese paper walls.

[gandul]

THOUGHTS

You're asking for MONEY more than thoughts...  If there's no billionaire among us, ask Elon for... a disappointment

[Freegrass]

uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, bering/chukchi, apr1-may13

I just went back through the days again on Nullschool - because I couldn't remember a strong southern wind blowing through the Bering Strait in the last few weeks - and it turns out my memory didn't abandon me. Winds were mostly northerlies, or absent. So I'm curious now why all that ice got "pulled" into the Chukchi sea. It can't be because of the current, can it? That would be a strong current... So could it be "suction" from a retreating Ice pack? I can't figure it out...

[Steerpike]

Much less snow cover south of the Yamal peninsula this year, no doubt due to the very mild winter there this year.

[pauldry600]

Dont really post often but to me all sides of Arctic are getting hit now. Looks dangerously fragile. We are in the top 4 these past few weeks and will probably stay there. Places that have never melted out will probably melt out this year but 2012 will remain the outlier.

[Pavel]

Of course it's not reliable, but GFS supposes  Eurasia will lost much of its remaining snow by May 25. Also huge areas of the Beaufort, Chuckchi, ESS, Laptev sea ice will also lose snow what mean ice turning blue

[kiwichick16]

@  pauldry600......2012 may remain at outlier....but for how much longer?

Current CO2 @  Mauna Loa  416 ppm

34 ppm to 450 ppm  ….. 3ppm  per year x  11.333 years = 34 ppm

450 ppm = Tipping Point

[johnm33]

It can't be because of the current, can it? That would be a strong current... So could it be "suction" from a retreating Ice pack? I can't figure it out...

My take is that the dipole, high mslp over practically the whole basins area has persisted for long enough to force water out of Fram. The easiest fraction to move is the layer beneath that held still by the ice keels but that upper layer with the ice also seems to be moving generally towards Fram. The losses will be exaggerated by tidal forcings meaning that excess has to be replaced from somewhere so Atlantic waters deep through Fram and via Barents into St.Anna>Laptev and Pacific waters via Bering.
Some of the papers/presentations recently linked by Nukefix are relevant to this well worth the time.

[Wildcatter]

Looking at the nasa over the last few days, aluminums gif, and the forecast. ESS might look pretty interesting in a week, might get punished for not eating its vegetables this winter (volume), more cracking with wind and ice movement.

could have cracking all around the "shell" (coasts), like the beaufort ones with continued southerlies. kara. the anti-cyclonic winds also seem to help spur ice retreat in the bering. FJL ice on the Atlantic side too, that one will probably close up but there's a lot of wind forcing and it's moved quite a bit just the last few days, then the big ol' cyclone comes in over the barents, good chunk of volume sitting next to it and svalbard

east eurasia heat might be worth watching, looks like its tired of being cold. and then all the fram/atlantic export, will be an interesting week

yikes. the heat across Eurasia really starts to "stick" at high latitudes in the next few days. this is probably going to be a problem before we even get to the end of may. will be interesting to see the effects of that + emergence of the "laptev bite" + unfortunate albedo conditions of the ESS + Laptev with the ESS already not looking great and record low volume across the area. not really sure how much of the Kara is even going to survive May either

don't be surprised if we see abnormally large amounts of melt in the Hudson in the next two weeks.

looks like Bering and Chukchi water will connect in just a few days. how much melt we see in the chukchi by the end of may is anyone's guess. Beaufort only a matter of time, heat and probably wind forcing will find a way to get to it enough in the next 2 weeks to set up for June.

rough estimate, we need about 58k/day average extent loss to pass 2019 on May 28, for second place. That's also about the amount needed, on average, to pass 2016 on June 9, for first place, in "extent" anyway. Looks like that's a fairly good possibility

[El Cid]

Current CO2 @  Mauna Loa  416 ppm

450 ppm = Tipping Point

There is NO exact tipping point. This is a freight train, things are in motion which can not really be stopped. Even if we today ended all Co2 emissions, we would see the Arctic melt out - at least that is what I think having read a good many studies on paleoclimate.

We need to reduce CO2 emissions not because then the Arctic wouldnt melt out (I believe it would) but to avoid a complete climate-disaster.

This year is very similar to 2007, just like this winter was very similar to 2006-7. Friv's pics are pretty ominous: this season starts out very strong

[Phil.]

NSIDC Area data (continued)

One oddity that is continuing is that
- area loss in the periphery now below average,
- area loss in the high Arctic now above average.

Not sure what that means (if anything). Ice in the Central seas (literally) in rotten shape?

Wondering if the gale up there has blown more out the Fram and added to the peripheral but depleted the central?

[Freegrass]

It can't be because of the current, can it? That would be a strong current... So could it be "suction" from a retreating Ice pack? I can't figure it out...

My take is that the dipole, high mslp over practically the whole basins area has persisted for long enough to force water out of Fram. The easiest fraction to move is the layer beneath that held still by the ice keels but that upper layer with the ice also seems to be moving generally towards Fram. The losses will be exaggerated by tidal forcings meaning that excess has to be replaced from somewhere so Atlantic waters deep through Fram and via Barents into St.Anna>Laptev and Pacific waters via Bering.
Some of the papers/presentations recently linked by Nukefix are relevant to this well worth the time.

Thanks for those papers John! I'll have a look at them later.

In reply to another message; The "tipping point" was 350 ppm, so all that can save us now is to get that CO2 back out of the atmosphere. But that's for another thread...

[P-maker]

Yeah - give us the number. Is the Greenland Sea finallly approaching the 1 mio. sq. km mark? If yes, this will explain some of the discrepancies, but it will not bode well for the remaining part of the melt century.

[paolo]

Pevek thaw 15-05-2020
the port is already free