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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #850 on: May 15, 2020, 05:26:11 PM »
Certainly the area above Greenland and down to Svalbard have been stuck stuck in the clouds and dealing with a low for the past bit, but AGAIN it's another clear day for a lot of the pack.

Is this normal? I don't get the sense that it is, or at least this time of the year. Granted it's still somewhat cold atop, but it's crazy to see how much sun the area in general is getting. I can only imagine that every tiny bit of open water and darkening spots will just continue to absorb more and more energy. Very interesting season...
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Burnrate

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #851 on: May 15, 2020, 06:24:12 PM »

...
Is this normal? ...

Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected.  I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #852 on: May 15, 2020, 06:29:54 PM »

...
Is this normal? ...

Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected.  I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.
I would think that besides the ~1/3 reduction in global aerosols (I could be grossly off o this # but I think it is reasonable), the 90% drop in air traffic is the biggest contributor to the lack of clouds. Or, the drop in air traffic at this point may be taking primacy even over the drop in aerosols. There was a study after 9/11 that showed a major rise in temperatures when air traffic halted. This is now being replicated much more severely across the entire planet.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #853 on: May 15, 2020, 06:30:12 PM »

...
Is this normal? ...

Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected.  I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.

Yeah, it is interesting. I've been watching the changes unfold during May on worldview and am quite surprised by the amount of ice mobility. Additionally, I did compare the last 15 days of ice export out of the Fram Strait and it certainly is elevated. Some large chunks of ice are now moving steadily south and off the coast of Greenland. I suspect the storm in the area north of there is the largest driver of it.
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Downpuppy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #854 on: May 15, 2020, 07:16:14 PM »
Peripheral area now is all about the Hudson. It was pretty cold there last week, not so much now. Once this concentration reduction in the center hits the 5 day averages, it should plunge.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #855 on: May 15, 2020, 07:45:09 PM »
That arm of fast ice that was sticking out of the north of Greenland towards the Fram, didn't survive the latest storm...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #856 on: May 15, 2020, 08:04:54 PM »
Something's moving north of Ellesmere in the last three days...

https://go.nasa.gov/36egM6t
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #857 on: May 15, 2020, 08:13:45 PM »
Something's moving north of Ellesmere in the last three days...

https://go.nasa.gov/36egM6t

Ha, I was LITERALLY just looking at that entire region. Granted, massive ice fractures in that region are normal, but the change over this ~2 day period are wild. There's a whole lot going on in the Arctic right now...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #858 on: May 15, 2020, 08:18:30 PM »
There's a whole lot going on in the Arctic right now...
That's probably why the man is looking so angry...
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oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #859 on: May 15, 2020, 08:21:56 PM »
FG, this belongs in the Pareidolia thread, I would move it but I lack moderation authority there.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #860 on: May 15, 2020, 08:23:34 PM »
FG, this belongs in the Pareidolia thread, I would move it but I lack moderation authority there.
I know Oren, but I thought it was suitable for the moment... It's an alternative smiley... ;)
« Last Edit: May 15, 2020, 08:33:00 PM by Freegrass »
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #861 on: May 15, 2020, 08:28:35 PM »
True...I mean it is a Friday!

I also never noticed that 'grumpy man' before until now, but I definitely see it.

Whelp, given what I've seen already I do expect to see the Greenland mega crack to appear again. If I see more evidence/clear imagery I will post it in that thread.

I was reading the extended forecast for Barrow, and while it will stay below freezing, the high pressure over the central Arctic is expected to remain in place a while longer. What extent will this have with regards to pre-conditioning?? I don't know yet...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #862 on: May 15, 2020, 08:49:58 PM »
True...I mean it is a Friday!

I also never noticed that 'grumpy man' before until now, but I definitely see it.
And now you can never unsee it again!
Quote
Whelp, given what I've seen already I do expect to see the Greenland mega crack to appear again. If I see more evidence/clear imagery I will post it in that thread.
The reason for this "Ellesmere crack" is strong wind that's been blowing there for the last 2 days. (Link is to Nullschool). Probably combined with the rotation of the anticyclone that's putting pressure on the entire ice pack?

Happy Friday!
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #863 on: May 15, 2020, 09:10:14 PM »
True...I mean it is a Friday!

I also never noticed that 'grumpy man' before until now, but I definitely see it.
And now you can never unsee it again!
Quote
Whelp, given what I've seen already I do expect to see the Greenland mega crack to appear again. If I see more evidence/clear imagery I will post it in that thread.
The reason for this "Ellesmere crack" is strong wind that's been blowing there for the last 2 days. (Link is to Nullschool). Probably combined with the rotation of the anticyclone that's putting pressure on the entire ice pack?

Happy Friday!

Happy Friday indeed! I can't wait to have a drink after work today.

To your point - it looks like the overall wind pattern is blowing west across that new crack toward the north slope of Alaska. At the same time, the rather potent storm which was situated near Svalbard/Fram Strait is/was pulling at the pack either south or southeast.

Either way, it is quite substantial and near the wider points I measured between 12-14 miles across. I do often wonder how quickly an artifact like that begins to affect the surrounding ice.

I live on an island in the Puget Sound, and I can tell you that even in small, 5 mile areas of open water (which are normally calm) can produce some significant waves given the right winds. Additionally, the dark sea will begin to instantly soak up any solar energy.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #864 on: May 15, 2020, 10:44:17 PM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/15/arctic-heat-wave-breaks-records/

Quote
Heat spike elevates Arctic to warmest levels this early in the year since at least 1958

A heat wave of historic proportions is gripping the Central Arctic, with the region setting a milestone for being so warm relative to average so early in the year.

According to a regional climate database that goes back to 1958, this week’s temperature spike in the Arctic, as defined as the region north of 80 degrees latitude, is unprecedented during that time period.

According to Martin Stendel, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the temperature data set, which is known as a reanalysis, shows how unusual the Arctic temperature anomalies are in the context of the past several decades.

“Concerning the Arctic temperature, that is indeed quite extraordinary. In the time series which is based on ERA40 and therefore goes back to 1958, there is no similar event so early in the season,” Stendel wrote in an email. “There is (again) very little sea ice in the Arctic (only 2019 had less),” Stendel noted.

A reanalysis is a way to put together a thorough record of how weather and climate conditions have varied over time.

The temperature spike, which is in part related to unusually mild air for this time of year flowing northward from the Russian Arctic, may have significant consequences. The milder temperatures and unusually clear skies could accelerate ice melt of sea and land ice across the vast region, particularly if cold snaps do not quickly follow.

Above-freezing temperatures are showing up in the Central Arctic about one month earlier than average this week, according to Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at CIRES, an atmospheric research institute operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Zack Labe, a graduate student at the University of California at Irvine who studies Arctic climate change, said he’s not convinced there is an early-season record for Arctic temperature departures from average because the reanalysis in use is older and less precise than more updated records.

“While it’s representative of warm or cold periods, I don’t think we can’t say much about ‘records’ from using it,” Labe said of the temperature reanalysis. “Regardless of records, this is definitely an unusually warm period across the entire Arctic Ocean. I think a weather pattern like this, but in June, would be particularly bad for sea ice.”

Computer model projections show mild temperature anomalies covering a vast expanse, stretching from the Barents and Kara seas near Siberia (which itself is unusually mild for this time of year) to the Chukchi Sea off the Alaskan coast.

These anomalous readings are reflected in the average temperature over the high Arctic (north of 80 degrees latitude), which has spiked in recent days, rising about 16 degrees (9C).

This unusually mild air mass is expected to stay in place for at least the next seven to 10 days, possibly longer, computer model projections show. A high-pressure area parked over the Central Arctic will also ensure clear skies, which is a key ingredient in warm season extreme melt events due to feedback loops involving melting snow and sea ice.

While sea ice melt tends to kick into gear in June, Scambos says the weather this week could cause the snowpack on top of the sea ice to “ripen” early in the season, which would cause the snow to get some liquid meltwater in it, lowering its reflectivity, or albedo, and absorbing more incoming solar energy. This would precondition the sea ice to more rapid and widespread melting earlier in the season, depending on the weather.

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #865 on: May 15, 2020, 11:09:44 PM »
Thanks for posting that article, it makes sense and I agree with the conclusions on it. Compared to other years, I do not remember seeing everything be so clear...

Just a sign of the slowing jet stream when these large weather systems/patterns become stuck.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #866 on: May 15, 2020, 11:20:56 PM »
Thanks for posting that article, it makes sense and I agree with the conclusions on it. Compared to other years, I do not remember seeing everything be so clear...

Just a sign of the slowing jet stream when these large weather systems/patterns become stuck.
A good article indeed! I just don't agree with your conclusion, that this is "a sign of the slowing jet stream". I think this is a clear sign of global dimming, that is now taken away, giving us the full impact of global warming. A slowing of the jet stream is a consequence, not a cause!
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #867 on: May 15, 2020, 11:29:24 PM »

pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #868 on: May 15, 2020, 11:31:16 PM »
Thanks for posting that article, it makes sense and I agree with the conclusions on it. Compared to other years, I do not remember seeing everything be so clear...

Just a sign of the slowing jet stream when these large weather systems/patterns become stuck.
A good article indeed! I just don't agree with your conclusion, that this is "a sign of the slowing jet stream". I think this is a clear sign of global dimming, that is now taken away, giving us the full impact of global warming. A slowing of the jet stream is a consequence, not a cause!

Oh, I meant that the conclusion makes sense insofar as an explanation to the regional clarity. I've noticed and commented on it, but I've only followed the ice closely since 2013, so what appears "new" to me has often been seen by others.

Anyways, I get your point and agree with that - I just didn't articulate what I wanted to well. I should have said: As a result of the warming arctic and less temperature differentiation between the equator and north pole, weather systems get 'stuck' as an implication of a slowed, wavy jet stream; what we are witnessing now is a result and negative feedback of the damage already imparted on the system at large.

The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #869 on: May 16, 2020, 12:24:51 AM »
Oh, I meant that the conclusion makes sense insofar as an explanation to the regional clarity. I've noticed and commented on it, but I've only followed the ice closely since 2013, so what appears "new" to me has often been seen by others.

Anyways, I get your point and agree with that - I just didn't articulate what I wanted to well. I should have said: As a result of the warming arctic and less temperature differentiation between the equator and north pole, weather systems get 'stuck' as an implication of a slowed, wavy jet stream; what we are witnessing now is a result and negative feedback of the damage already imparted on the system at large.
That took to much effort to think about on a Friday night...  ;D 

Quote
The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?
I don't think the problem is the weather right now. I think the problem is that the weather will be like this all summer long...
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SteveMDFP

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #870 on: May 16, 2020, 12:37:52 AM »
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/15/arctic-heat-wave-breaks-records/

I was nearly gobsmacked to read such a clear, accurate and nuanced article in the mainstream press--about *any* technical subject, let alone the arctic.

Then I looked at the article, by Andrew Freedman, of the "Capital Weather Gang."  The group produces excellent meteorological and climatological reporting.   As I'm in that capital area, I've benefited from their expertise before.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #871 on: May 16, 2020, 12:45:20 AM »
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?

That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #872 on: May 16, 2020, 01:40:03 AM »

...
Is this normal? ...

Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected.  I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.
I would think that besides the ~1/3 reduction in global aerosols (I could be grossly off o this # but I think it is reasonable), the 90% drop in air traffic is the biggest contributor to the lack of clouds. Or, the drop in air traffic at this point may be taking primacy even over the drop in aerosols. There was a study after 9/11 that showed a major rise in temperatures when air traffic halted. This is now being replicated much more severely across the entire planet.

Contrails are thought to have a net warming effect, particularly as they form more readily at night rather than day. Clouds keep the planet warm.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1

" In contrast, the level of understanding for contrail cirrus impact has been thoroughly upgraded during the last 10 years, and it is currently considered as the largest component contributing to aircraft-induced radiative forcing (Burkhardt and Kärcher 2011; Schumann and Graf 2013; Bock and Burkhardt 2016b; Grewe et al. 2017)."

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #873 on: May 16, 2020, 01:47:20 AM »
    Ditto ArcticMelt2, thanks for the WAPost article and also those ice thickness images.  They could have spiced it up with some ASIF quotes from the Fabulous Friv.  It is a credit to the ASIF that the experts quoted in the article didn't add to what has already been noted in greater detail in the forum.  Good to see a major US press outlet paying attention to news that matters vs the latest ramblings of the mad King.  Actually, the WAPost climate team led by Chris Mooney is among the best of all the major newspapers/magazines.  Mooney even did a story about Neven and the ASIF back in 2016: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/30/he-created-a-beloved-blog-about-the-melting-arctic-but-it-got-harder-and-harder-to-write/

     Comparing the 2012, 2019 & 2020 sea ice thickness images, the one strength 2020 had was the thick ice near the Fram Strait.  That is the very ice that was presumably pummeled by the warmth, sun, and WIND this week.   2012 and 2019 each had a long arm that may have impeded Arctic-wide rotation.  2020 lacks that structural brace.  I don't know if Arctic-wide ice translocation is affected by the distribution of thick ice at that scale.  The significance of that pattern could just be a visual figment of my imagination.  (Or as Pete Walker said: a "Fig Newton of my immaculation") 

     The last 7 days of the current GFS shows Kara Sea temps consistently above 0C.  Not much clear sky & direct sun in that forecast, but the clouds bring some rain (too warm for snow) to deliver additional thermal energy to the surface.  All of which leads to forecast zero snow cover in the Kara by May 24 https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp.

    The Kara is already running below previous years (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.600.html#lastPost thanks to Gerontocrat).  Putting that together with the forecast suggests that by June 1 the Kara could be in unprecedented condition.

    The Barents Sea hardly seems to matter since any ice in it is doomed anyway.  But FWIW, Earth Nullschool shows continued low-pressure system winds scouring it out for another day or two.  Does it make much difference to clear the lanes for more export out of the CAB?  Erosion of the ice on the CAB - Barents border can't help.  At least the great Fram Flush of early 2020 has ended. 

     Following up on Freegrass's tiptoe through the tulips of DMI images, looking at the DMI temperature graph for every year since 1958 shows that this early-mid May warmup has no real match in previous years. 

     It seems like every year the ASIF gets all heated about impending ice doom.  2020 so far is providing some hard numbers in that direction.  Yes, it is still early, but as wiser watchers have noted, it is the early momentum that sets the stage for the rest of the melt season.  True enough that a basin-scale clear-sky event would be worse if it happened 2-3 weeks from now and closer to the solar max.  Then again, decreasing albedo well BEFORE the solar max increases the impact of reduced reflection of solar radiation. And having a clear-sky event early does not preclude having another one later.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 06:58:17 PM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #874 on: May 16, 2020, 02:46:17 AM »
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?

That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.

Unless your psychic then nothing is a definate, especially in the Arctic in anycase. I would not be surprised if we see quite large extent drops because alot of ice in the Barants sea has melted/compacted/exported and melting is occurring in other regions such as the Kara Sea and Baffin Bay and both regions are quite low at the moment.

On the most part, weather conditions will turn alot slacker and pressure will fall in parts of the basin, basically weather conditions that should mean good news for sea ice.

The main exception to the rule will be the Kara sea, really unusually warm conditions hitting here at times and it's all ready hitting the snow cover there and will continue to do so.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #875 on: May 16, 2020, 04:33:19 AM »
Of course it's not reliable, but GFS supposes  Eurasia will lost much of its remaining snow by May 25. Also huge areas of the Beaufort, Chuckchi, ESS, Laptev sea ice will also lose snow what mean ice turning blue

That's crazy.  The mosaic team instruments show less than 10 cm of snow around their boat.

Yet that forecast goes 30 to 40 cm in like 2 weeks that's crazy
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #876 on: May 16, 2020, 04:34:42 AM »
No they're being a mega high pressure ridge is not normal that it's unprecedented for this time of year.

Also aerosols are not the reason it's clear
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #877 on: May 16, 2020, 07:05:03 AM »
Contrails are thought to have a net warming effect, particularly as they form more readily at night rather than day. Clouds keep the planet warm.

I'm not surprised that this would be the global or average effects of contrails. But specifically in the Arctic summer months, where "night" is a dodgy subject? I'm not so sure.

As for aerosols in general, apparently the Arctic wildfires from last season have been smouldering under the snow all winter and are now reappearing in unusually large numbers. Arctic peat fires must be the biggest source of aerosols over the Arctic in a normal year? Does anyone know?

See this New Scientist article about Zombie Fires

As regards the general cloudiness of the Arctic, my feeling would be that those clouds that reach the arctic are mostly formed elsewhere, predominantly in the mid-latitudes, and given the sharp drop in aerosol pollution there, a drop in cloudiness over the Arctic would follow a general drop in cloudiness in lower latitudes - but has anybody got any idea if that is the case or not?
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #878 on: May 16, 2020, 07:19:55 AM »
I don't think that this season will count as sufficient proof for anything. The systems are too complex. But what needs to be explained is clear: record early warmth (temperature wise) in the arctic, and unprecedented (in the record) early-mid-may sunshine over the arctic. Is this the result of long term degradation of the polar cell? Decline in flights over the arctic? Drops in aerosol emissions?

What would be the criteria for distinguishing the cause(s)?

What we do know is that the arctic is being primed enough that if weather is favourable we will see a record year for ice extent. But that is true every year.

In humility we can say that the arctic sea ice is in trouble and we are in a new age of disruption where we will have to rely on resilience to get civilization through. The only prudent thing is to act as though we have no time to make our systems more resilient and more stable as we enter a time of instability and disruption. Are we at all capable of response?

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #879 on: May 16, 2020, 08:07:36 AM »
The surface albedo over 2/3rds of the Arctic basin from the Eurasian side though the central Arctic basin maybe even touching the CAB.


This is super remarkable.

The models however after day 5-6 show benign cloudy cooler conditions with the warmth mostly confined to the Kara, laptev, and Atlantic side.

The models show the Beaufort region getting skirted by warm air some.

We'll see how it all plays out.

What is most important is whether the surface will freeze back up and cause the albedo rise.

Even under cloudy conditions lower albedo will definitely cause surface warming more with Lower albedo.

You can see in the two images I posted that the albedo change has been extraordinary.

For anytime of year.

We now know even in middle May.  Well really early half of middle May the artic basin.

Amazing

« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 08:17:11 AM by Frivolousz21 »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #880 on: May 16, 2020, 08:37:25 AM »
Guys the anomalous ridging is a huge energy transferring event.

Aeresols being reduced cannot possibly be a catalyst in the atmospheric process that causes such anomalous events over such a large area.

It's not just 2D coverage.

It's the 4D/3D plane in which the energy tranfer, wind mixing, moisture density, air density, surface changes.. All of that goes into this process.

Not just the large ridge that  has been stacked all the way to to 300mb to the surface but also the vortex pieces that move around the ridging.

These pieces cover much more area than the ridging(55-70N). This is where huge amounts of heat/moisture are transferred.

Just saying that's my arm chair analysis.

Either way its tremendous!!!
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #881 on: May 16, 2020, 09:13:34 AM »
The 00Z euro is out and model trends in the medium range are quite variable.  Which makes sense considering the huge change in lower tropospheric energy right now.

Anyways a couple notes...

1. The Kara region, including the laptev and Atlantic region are in line for a big blast of WAA and sun day 5 plus.

The models have continued to enhance this.

But more importantly....

2.

The euro is now showing what would likely be record warmth through Alaska and the Yukon that spills into the Western CAB and Beaufort, eventually the Chuchki...

That unfolds after day 6.

But then day 7-10 another ridge is developing over the Pacific side of the Arctic basin.

Very very interesting May
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #882 on: May 16, 2020, 10:05:16 AM »
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?

That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.

Watch this map.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp

... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early.  In fact in ways, I think it is worse.  All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.

What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.

Hunch:  The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.

This presumes we don't have weather in mid season that blows things out even worse than they are rocketing towards currently.

(Edit:  Note that in the next 5 days the model shows pretty much all the remaining land snow cover on the Eurasian side of the Arctic getting massacred.  Things are going to get hot, early.)
« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 10:17:23 AM by jdallen »
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #883 on: May 16, 2020, 10:30:36 AM »
The surface albedo over 2/3rds of the Arctic basin from the Eurasian side though the central Arctic basin maybe even touching the CAB.
<snip>
The models however after day 5-6 show benign cloudy cooler conditions with the warmth mostly confined to the Kara, laptev, and Atlantic side.
<snip>
You can see in the two images I posted that the albedo change has been extraordinary.
<snip>
We now know even in middle May.  Well really early half of middle May the artic basin.

Amazing

Even with improving conditions in another week, I don't  think the albedo on the peripheral seas is going to recover.  With the warming projected around the same time on the Beaufort/Chukchi side, those seas will likely join the others.  Any remaining ice in the Bering and Okhotsk will be erased, catching 2020 up with the events of the last 3 years in the Bering.

I am very concerned with these early enormous increases in the Arctic's heat budget.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #884 on: May 16, 2020, 11:13:46 AM »
May 11-15.

2019.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #885 on: May 16, 2020, 11:26:07 AM »
That's quite a big hole appearing North & West of Svalbard - the first significant damage to ice North of 80.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #886 on: May 16, 2020, 11:35:37 AM »
Interesting to see where the massive extent loss takes place. Widespread ice loss on the Eurasian side, all the say from Svalbard to north west corner of Alaska.

Ice between Svalbard and FJL will be gone shortly.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #887 on: May 16, 2020, 12:54:10 PM »
It rained north of Svalbard.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #888 on: May 16, 2020, 01:59:26 PM »
May 11-15.

2019.

That really looks scary, and even more so after comparing it to 2019. We have seen Atlantification of the Barents, now we are seeing Swisscheesification of the entire Arctic ...
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #889 on: May 16, 2020, 02:04:45 PM »
"Swisscheesification" << That's such a great word creation, Binntho. Kudos to you!
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #890 on: May 16, 2020, 02:56:49 PM »
<snip>  "now we are seeing Swisscheesification of the entire Arctic ..."

      Question 1:  Do those dark areas really indicate low concentration ice or does the sensor get fooled by moisture in the air column between surface and satellite?  I am not proposing, just asking.  Others have suggested that is the case.  If so, note that at the far end of the 10-day GFS there is an incursion of moist air over the central CAB https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.pwtr.  I was told by a climate scientist last year that such incursions were unusual, and that they contribute to localized warming, but take that as a second-hand anecdote from a less than perfect memory.

--------------------------
<snip> Watch this map.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp

... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early.  In fact in ways, I think it is worse.  All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.

What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.

Hunch:  The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.

     Question 2:  That is an interesting concept for a long-range predictor for September sea ice Extent.  Is there historical analysis supporting that or something like it? 

     Which raises Question 3:  In addition to waiting for each new GFS or EURO model run, are there any publically available multi-week or seasonal weather forecasts for the Arctic basin with useful skill?  NOAA produces seasonal temp. and precip forecasts for the US that have useful skill out to several months for temp., and out to several weeks - 1 month for precip.  These are not weather forecasts for what will happen on this or that day, but trends for the period as a whole.  Having a skillful multi-week temperature or pressure forecast for the Arctic basin would be very interesting.

------------------------

     GFS vs. EURO  The differences between GFS and EURO are not that great, that's not me talking, it's Marshall Sheperd former president of American Met. Society, and him quoting the director of the EURO model.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/14/euro-vs-gfs-weather-model-wars-take-a-new-turn-in-march/#7c3625286c2b

       Look at the forecast correlation stats and you see that the EURO does do better overall, but that is not always the case, and in general the scores are within a few percentage points.  GFS is pretty darned good so let's stop insulting it and by doing so dragging on the people who provide it.  And there is considerable investment in new computers, data systems, modeling physics, human and other resources underway that bodes well for continued progress with the FV3-GFS platform that went online last June. 

     Of course, the EURO is not standing still either.  Shepherd points out that the different met centers from around the world work closely together to help each other.  That's the kind of cooperative competition we need to pull out of our global tailspin. 

      The number of satellite, doppler radar, and other technological developments in the past decade is amazing.  If you need some good news, check out the COSMIC program.
  It seems that the original COSMIC  readings include the Arctic.  Great to see a much-improved COSMIC-2 for the lower latitudes.  Now we need a COSMIC-3 covering the polar regions.  (Outside my wheelhouse, but I think that is possible)  It's a matter of priorities not resources.  Understanding and preserving a climate that supports human civilization should be a top priority.  Pay for knowledge now or pay for damages later.

« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 03:40:53 PM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #891 on: May 16, 2020, 03:25:09 PM »
... or does the sensor get fooled by moisture in the air column between surface and satellite? ...

Glen, i bet that is the case for many of those patches. Check my 'rain north of Svalbard' posting above, and compare it with Aluminiums GIF (last frame) and it becomes pretty apparent IMHO.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #892 on: May 16, 2020, 04:16:38 PM »

Well, NSIDC says there is a big hole north of Svalbard. FJL (whoops)
And the Port of Longyearbyen shows a lot of open water & mucho bare patches on the land.

https://www.webcamgalore.com/webcam/Norway/Longyearbyen-Spitsbergen/1457.html

& the UK metoffice says what a lovely sunny day in Longyearbyen.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #893 on: May 16, 2020, 04:45:08 PM »
Open water in the Laptev Sea emerging from under the clouds today:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2020-images/#Laptev
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #894 on: May 16, 2020, 05:06:53 PM »
<snip> That's quite a big hole appearing North & West of Svalbard - the first significant damage to ice North of 80.
    And some of that area had large positive ice thickness anomalies before the May 10-13 winds pushing out through the Fram Strait. 

    NSIDC vs. AMSR2 image shading:   The NSIDC shows low concentration at some of the same areas as AMSR2, but the light gray shading for the AMSR2 affects many more areas in addition.  The impression of widespread ice damage across much of the CAB in the AMSR2 image is not replicated in the NSIDC image.  That may be due to differences between NSIDC and AMRSR2 in choice of color thresholds for graphing.  Or maybe NSIDC has a way to filter out misleading signals due to atmospheric moisture. 

     My tentative conclusion is that the very dark areas fringing open water in the B&W AMSR2 image are representing low ice concentration, but that the wispy grayish areas over much of the CAB could be due to high air moisture.  And that the NSIDC graphic is more restricted to showing sea ice concentration.  The Kara Sea already looks pretty beat up in both of them.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 06:05:48 PM by Glen Koehler »

thejazzmarauder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #895 on: May 16, 2020, 06:01:40 PM »
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?

That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.

Watch this map.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp

... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early.  In fact in ways, I think it is worse.  All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.

What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.

Hunch:  The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.

This presumes we don't have weather in mid season that blows things out even worse than they are rocketing towards currently.

(Edit:  Note that in the next 5 days the model shows pretty much all the remaining land snow cover on the Eurasian side of the Arctic getting massacred.  Things are going to get hot, early.)

Would be interesting to see when land snow on Eurasian side has melted in years past.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #896 on: May 16, 2020, 06:50:41 PM »
    Ditto ArcticMelt2, thanks for the WAPost article and also those ice thickness images.  They could have spiced it up with some ASIF quotes from the Fabulous Friv.  I think it is a credit to the ASIF that the experts quoted in the article didn't add to what has already been noted in greater detail in the forum.  Good to see a major US press outlet paying attention to news that matters vs the latest ramblings of the mad King.  Actually, the WAPost climate team led by Chris Mooney is among the best of all the major newspapers/magazines.  Mooney even did a story about Neven and the ASIF back in 2016: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/30/he-created-a-beloved-blog-about-the-melting-arctic-but-it-got-harder-and-harder-to-write/

     Comparing the 2012, 2019 & 2020 sea ice thickness images, the one strength 2020 had was the thick ice near the Fram Strait.  That is the very ice that was presumably pummeled by the warmth, sun, and WIND this week.   2012 and 2019 each had a long arm that may have impeded Arctic-wide rotation.  2020 lacks that structural brace.  I don't know if Arctic-wide ice translocation is affected by the distribution of thick ice at that scale.  The significance of that pattern could just be a visual figment of my imagination.  (Or as Pete Walker said: a "Fig Newton of my immaculation") 

It is also noticeable on these maps that this year there is much less landfast ice in Siberia. Is this evidence of stronger warm winds in winter? In 2019, warm winds were mostly in the Alaska area.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #897 on: May 16, 2020, 09:21:56 PM »
The surface albedo over 2/3rds of the Arctic basin from the Eurasian side though the central Arctic basin maybe even touching the CAB.
<snip>
The models however after day 5-6 show benign cloudy cooler conditions with the warmth mostly confined to the Kara, laptev, and Atlantic side.
<snip>
You can see in the two images I posted that the albedo change has been extraordinary.
<snip>
We now know even in middle May.  Well really early half of middle May the artic basin.

Amazing

Even with improving conditions in another week, I don't  think the albedo on the peripheral seas is going to recover.  With the warming projected around the same time on the Beaufort/Chukchi side, those seas will likely join the others.  Any remaining ice in the Bering and Okhotsk will be erased, catching 2020 up with the events of the last 3 years in the Bering.

I am very concerned with these early enormous increases in the Arctic's heat budget.

The 12Z euro after hour 120 slowly blows up a quasi-dipole with a huge blow torch over the Kara region as well.

But what it shows coming from the NA side is of most interest.

Just an amazing start to this melt season
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #898 on: May 16, 2020, 09:28:45 PM »
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?

That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.

Watch this map.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp

... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early.  In fact in ways, I think it is worse.  All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.

What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.

Hunch:  The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.

This presumes we don't have weather in mid season that blows things out even worse than they are rocketing towards currently.

(Edit:  Note that in the next 5 days the model shows pretty much all the remaining land snow cover on the Eurasian side of the Arctic getting massacred.  Things are going to get hot, early.)

Would be interesting to see when land snow on Eurasian side has melted in years past.

Snow melt the last 15 years has accelerated versus before that.

However in the last 6-7 years the progressive loss of snow cover in May has slowed because snow depth/snow water equivalent has gone up.

A breakthrough is likely between 2020 and 2030.

But the more snow depth increases it will help slow the melt pace.


https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #899 on: May 16, 2020, 09:44:22 PM »

...
Is this normal? ...

Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected.  I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.
Alright you bozos, i'm sorta back. Must comment on this one!

There is no "perhaps" about it - it's a certainty. Most collegues do not expect the effect as they are not well familiar with papers akin to one i linked in this topic few pages above - about how aerosols affect athmosphere, and clouds in particular. One with plenty links to other ones, i mean.

Long story short, the "big" thing in the room about aerosols-affecting-clouds - is simple: the more microscopic solid particles inside clouds - the more condensation locations are available; so, same amount of water vapour which particular cloud contains - ends up condensating into more droplets (than without aerosols present). More droplets from same amount of vapour means smaller droplets. Smaller droplets means less precipitation occurs = i.e., more of the cloud remains in the air.

Of course, many other things also happen, but i'm quite sure the above mechanism is much more powerful than all other processes caused by reduction in aerosols.

As my remark above in the topic mentions, instruments confirm Arctic-wide overall aerosol reduction. It's so significant it can easily be eye-balled by comparing things like SO4 levels across CAB for same dates of this and previous years.

So - yes, sure, we have, and we will continue to have during this melting season, way less clouds - overall - than normal, unless something exceptionally strong would bring in much more water vapour into the Arctic than during previous years, of course. But then again, that would probably mean helluva lot extra heat coming in as well. Which, combined - heat and water vapour - would mean GACs going through, which summer-time spells doom for the ice no less than sunny skies.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!