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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #900 on: May 16, 2020, 09:51:50 PM »
As someone said above the euro and GFS are currently in remarkable agreement through day 10.

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uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #901 on: May 16, 2020, 10:05:05 PM »
But what it shows coming from the NA side is of most interest.
Just an amazing start to this melt season
Friv, please divulge what is coming from the NA side. Atmo is not my strong point

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #902 on: May 16, 2020, 10:06:24 PM »
But what it shows coming from the NA side is of most interest.
Just an amazing start to this melt season
Friv, please divulge what is coming from the NA side. Atmo is not my strong point
The hammer is being dropped on snowcover. It looks like there is also a lot of warmth in the NW of the continent, but this could be curtains for the remaining extant snow extent over Quebec / Nunavut. When that goes, there is going to be no barrier between continental airmasses and the CAA / Greenland, besides the ice in Hudson Bay, which is now losing albedo fairly quickly.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #903 on: May 16, 2020, 10:31:05 PM »
10°C at 850 hPa is forecasted in the Kara Sea in 4 days. Somewhere with rain, somewhere with clear sky.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #904 on: May 16, 2020, 10:50:19 PM »
wipneus regional extent and area, kara, may15
edit: thanks bbr, and welcome back
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 12:06:40 AM by uniquorn »

be cause

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #905 on: May 17, 2020, 12:37:37 AM »
Kara earning a place in the peripheral seas ? I always keep an eye on Kara as early losses here usually portend a serious melting season . Last year was a rare exception ; we are now a month ahead of 2019 , when there was a major stall , something that looks unlikely this year . .
 Even after the comparatively cold winter , I too feel the ice is in serious trouble . While gfs and ecmwf are in near agreement to day 10 that the basin remains abnormally warm , gfs run to day 16 is even worse for the ice . Only the Lincoln sea looks safe from any melt before June .
  From 3 days out temps below -4'C are sparse and with a Beaufort high encouraging the gyre and lows on the Eurasian side resulting in a dipole there should be more movement as well as melt . b.c.
 
 
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #906 on: May 17, 2020, 01:07:45 AM »
Kara earning a place in the peripheral seas ? I always keep an eye on Kara as early losses here usually portend a serious melting season . Last year was a rare exception ; we are now a month ahead of 2019 , when there was a major stall , something that looks unlikely this year . .
 Even after the comparatively cold winter , I too feel the ice is in serious trouble . While gfs and ecmwf are in near agreement to day 10 that the basin remains abnormally warm , gfs run to day 16 is even worse for the ice . Only the Lincoln sea looks safe from any melt before June .
  From 3 days out temps below -4'C are sparse and with a Beaufort high encouraging the gyre and lows on the Eurasian side resulting in a dipole there should be more movement as well as melt . b.c.
 
 

Those Kara graphs are pretty crazy, and if the 12z guidance is to be believed, we are only getting started / melt is going to become much more rapid in the next week or so.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #907 on: May 17, 2020, 04:21:41 AM »
<snip>  "now we are seeing Swisscheesification of the entire Arctic ..."

      Question 1:  Do those dark areas really indicate low concentration ice or does the sensor get fooled by moisture in the air column between surface and satellite? 

The "swiss cheese" is famous for it's holes, not for any "dark areas". So my comment was only regarding the holes popping up in the ice all around the perifery, much more so than usual at this time of year, as per my feeble and increasingly decrepit memory. And definitely significantly more than 2019 as can be readily seen.

The "dark areas" are of course also much more prominent than usual, or so we seem to think, but I think I've learned the lesson some time ago not to take those too literally. Althogh one does wonder if some sort of Bluecheesefication is underway as well?
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binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #908 on: May 17, 2020, 04:31:52 AM »
Long story short, the "big" thing in the room about aerosols-affecting-clouds - is simple: the more microscopic solid particles inside clouds - the more condensation locations are available; so, same amount of water vapour which particular cloud contains - ends up condensating into more droplets (than without aerosols present). More droplets from same amount of vapour means smaller droplets. Smaller droplets means less precipitation occurs = i.e., more of the cloud remains in the air.

Thanks for this reminder. The evidence for a significant reduction in cloud cover due to the current sharp fall in aerosol pollution is getting stronger.

I mentioned earlier that I belive that most of the cloud cover that ends up in the Arctic actually originates in the mid-latitudes, coinciding with the areas seeing the biggest fall in aerosols.

But is anybody actually seeing this effect - is there less cloud cover now than usual in the mid-latitudes? Or in the Northern Hemisphere?
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RikW

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #909 on: May 17, 2020, 06:54:37 AM »
The last 2 Monti’s felt very sunny in the Netherlands and it also entered the recordbooks as most sunny april since we started measuring it.

And at the ‘higher’ areas drought is getting a real probleem; farmers who aren’t allowed to use water for their crops

And last weeks of march and first weeks of march are the same



Just checked some statistics, we had 560 sunhours since march 15th, former record was 503, which was in 2011; and only  23mm of rain
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 07:00:20 AM by RikW »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #910 on: May 17, 2020, 08:07:51 AM »
Both the 00z GFS and GEM are in lockstep still for the current ridge of high pressure to keep sliding into Siberia and fade away.


Then day 4-5 the Kara gets completely smoked with WAA. But models have backed off a bit on the extent (NO PUN INTENDED) of how far into the basin the slug of abnormally flame thrower level heat that gets two pump chump thumped & bumped into the main pack of floating ice on sea water.

However after hour 120 a ridge that's elongated in an ovalish N/S way develops over NWNA up through the Western Canadian Basin.

This is a slow developer but none the less scours out the cold air over the Western CAB.

By this point the snow pack West of the CAA will be essentially gone.

So the warm Southerly flow will aid whatever sun breaks out and decimate the  ice surface albedo in said region.

In other news check out the amazing SNOW COVER CHANGE IN NE SIBERIA.

Click to animate
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El Cid

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #911 on: May 17, 2020, 08:19:02 AM »
I mentioned earlier that I belive that most of the cloud cover that ends up in the Arctic actually originates in the mid-latitudes, coinciding with the areas seeing the biggest fall in aerosols.

But is anybody actually seeing this effect - is there less cloud cover now than usual in the mid-latitudes? Or in the Northern Hemisphere?

Hardly any rain here (20 mm in 2 months, while average is 120 mm for 2 months) as well and lots of sunshine in March-April-May (basically since the lockdowns started). No proof of the lockdown-aerosol reduction effects, but I think there could be something to it. I have never seen so far, so clearly from our montaintop, I could see other mountains 2-300 kms away. Air was very clear and cloudless during the lockdowns. This is of course only anecdotal evidence but still...

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #912 on: May 17, 2020, 08:30:19 AM »
wipneus regional extent and area, kara, may15
edit: thanks bbr, and welcome back

No wonder.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #913 on: May 17, 2020, 11:34:34 AM »
Hardly any rain here (20 mm in 2 months, while average is 120 mm for 2 months) as well and lots of sunshine in March-April-May (basically since the lockdowns started). No proof of the lockdown-aerosol reduction effects, but I think there could be something to it. I have never seen so far, so clearly from our montaintop, I could see other mountains 2-300 kms away. Air was very clear and cloudless during the lockdowns. This is of course only anecdotal evidence but still...
Thanks for sharing it. From such small bits, bigger picture forms.

And it's not anecdotal. "Anecdotal" means: "evidence collected in a casual or informal manner and relying heavily or entirely on personal testimony". What you just said does not qualify to be "anecdotal", because it was not collected in "casual or informal manner" as relevant to the essense of your testimony. There is nothing "casual" nor "informal" about reporting specific range for visibility at a specific location, which you did; nor about specific amount of precipitation (20mm) as compared to usual average (120mm) for specific length of time (2 months).

Similar thing happens where i am at this time, too. I've never seen such a bright blue sky here during some 20+ years i am regularly present in the area. Now i see it almost every day, as even rainy days here - now often happen without complete (full) cloud cover during the day, instead being partially cloudy days (of which we had 20 out of 30 days of April here, which is above average for the month).

P.S. Plenty sun, too (now this is anecdotal alright) - bothers me personally as my main PC is right next to a SW window. Means i gotta bump up brightness / contrast of my display during those evening-sunshine hours, and then i gotta drop 'em down to low once sun sets. Problem is, sometimes i forget, and then it strains me eyes. Can i lawsuit 'em ones responsible for the whole pandemic / lockdown / clearer skies situation for extra bits of that eye damage i get as a result? Yeah. Figures. :D
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #914 on: May 17, 2020, 08:21:05 PM »
Sunday movies starts with the 7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies.

Attached the DMI 80°N 2m Temperatures.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #915 on: May 17, 2020, 08:22:27 PM »
Fram export via SAR.

Click to play.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #916 on: May 17, 2020, 08:24:01 PM »
Ice drift map. We have the whole ice pack rotating clockwise.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #917 on: May 17, 2020, 08:43:55 PM »
Interesting to see that rotation. It certainly helps to explain why the Fram Strait is currently so full of ice being flushed out. I've also seen more of those substantial cracks appearing on Beaufort Sea's coast. It's been so cloudy over Greenland that it's hard to tell what has happened over the last week.

Either way, the insane amount of direct sun over the East Siberian/Laptev Seas will certainly allow to ice to more freely rotate. I suppose I find this telling given how the central ice pack seemed to sheer away from the entire Queen Elizabeth Islands area last year. What a wild start to the year!
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #918 on: May 17, 2020, 09:54:30 PM »
Intense hot attacks from Siberia next 10 days. Note: the warmest time in Siberia is 3-6 hours earlier.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #919 on: May 17, 2020, 10:26:23 PM »
The models still bring a quasi-dipole post day 7.

But have pushed back the arrival of the development of the ridge a couple days.

Even then the WAA is dependent On the development of a decently strong vortex.



The issue which has been the same issue since 2013 is the large +AO/+NAO that blows up centered on GIS and the Eastern CAA/NE mainland Canada.


It is more and more apparent that 05, 07-12 was highly HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.

now granted this only goes out to May 27th.

It's still disappointing.  People can argue why do I want to see arctic death.

Well it's inevitable and exciting
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The Walrus

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #920 on: May 17, 2020, 10:52:03 PM »
wipneus regional extent and area, kara, may15
edit: thanks bbr, and welcome back

No wonder.

Wow!  That graph should little, if any, temperature anomaly between 60N and 60S, but significant increases above and below.  Polar amplification anyone?

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #921 on: May 18, 2020, 02:55:53 AM »
RE AMSR2 image:
The "dark areas" are of course also much more prominent than usual, or so we seem to think, but I think I've learned the lesson some time ago not to take those too literally. Althogh one does wonder if some sort of Bluecheesefication is underway as well?

    There may be something to "Bluecheeseification".  If the wispy gray-dark areas over the CAB in the AMSR2 image are in fact indicating high moisture content in the air, that does not necessarily make it disconnected from the ice condition.  Because where did that moisture come from? 

    My first guess was that it's just part of the weather system, some air masses more moisture than others.  If so, then the air moisture would be a misleading signal not connected to the condition of the ice.  But now I'm wondering if perhaps those darj areas are showing higher air moisture caused by surface melt or lower concentration ice with more openings to allow communication of CAB water to the air above it.  Total speculation of course.  But it fits with the Bluecheeseification idea.
   
« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 04:21:32 AM by Glen Koehler »

Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #922 on: May 18, 2020, 03:15:03 AM »
Ice drift map. We have the whole ice pack rotating clockwise.
     Recent paper by Walt Meier et al found 10% per decade increase in ASI motion.  The May 8-16 ice drift map seems like it will contribute to that trend, though I don't have any info on what the average ice drift at this time of year looks like.  There are some long arrows in that image. 

    The recent high winds pretty well cleaned out the ice that was around Svalbard and FJL.  When the 2020 melt season story is written that seems like a major event to include.  Not as dramatic as the GAC of 2012, but the ice that was removed was one the remaining reservoirs of relatively thick ice.

    A highly mobile pack would be a major contributing factor for a wipeout melt season.  Too early to know season-long prospects of course.   The Arctic wide GFS forecast does not look as bad for the ice as last week.  The Kara is still in for some heat, and Mid-May has been one heck of a start. 
« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 04:19:38 AM by Glen Koehler »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #923 on: May 18, 2020, 05:04:02 AM »
The ice is thin and weak. Thus mobile. EVERYWHERE.

So the ice drifts with the polar easterlies and every western coast is bare earlier practically every year.

But next year I think it will all recover  ;)
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #924 on: May 18, 2020, 05:40:33 AM »
According to multiple buoys temps in the Southern Beaufort have gone above freezing the last few days.

While temps over the Western CAB havent but have come close.

This will take 2 posts to upload 6 images.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #925 on: May 18, 2020, 05:49:26 AM »
The two ITPs above show the temps further West/North however you want to look at it going above freezing.

The one I'm posting below shows temps further into the cab haven't pressed above freezing yet.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #926 on: May 18, 2020, 09:39:42 AM »
May 13-17.

2019.

April 27 - May 17 (fast).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #927 on: May 18, 2020, 11:10:11 AM »
Hot off NASA's presses, the current state of the sea ice in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas. Plus the (lack of?) snow cover across the adjacent land:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2020-images/#ESS
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peterlvmeng

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #928 on: May 18, 2020, 11:12:39 AM »
Thanks Fri. Very interesting! We pay much attention on the air temperature and albedo effect. The ocean surface temperature is also important even decisive.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #929 on: May 18, 2020, 12:19:29 PM »
The two ITPs above show the temps further West/North however you want to look at it going above freezing.
Please note that these are internal buoy temperatures for monitoring the equipment, not from an external sensor. It's likely that internal buoy temps will rise significantly above external air temps during long periods of sunshine.
They are still useful as a guide for change in temperature but should be used with caution.
Thanks to Bruce Steele for the heads up on this last year

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #930 on: May 18, 2020, 01:40:56 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

The Kara sea will be getting a roasting in a few days from now, with the Laptev also getting its share of heat.

Positive temperatures for the Beaufort are also in the forecast.

The forecast for Fram exports looks good, with southerlies holding the ice back. But I've seen a possibility of that changing on the long term forecast.

Wind in the Bering strait will continue to come from the north until the end of the week, when a change in wind and temperature is expected.

I was under the impression from last weeks forecast that temperatures on the CAB would go down a little, but it seems they won't be dropping anytime soon.
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #931 on: May 18, 2020, 03:43:23 PM »
May 13-17.

2019.

April 27 - May 17 (fast).
Looking at your second animation, it looks like the entire ice pack got compacted by that giant high pressure system. Blumenkraft taught me that last season, that the ice pack tends to compact with HP systems, while LP systems tend to spread the ice out. And this clearly was proven again last week. I thought the clockwise rotation of the pack would fill up the ESS again, and it did a little, but mostly the ice was compacted towards the center, decreasing extent.
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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #932 on: May 18, 2020, 07:11:03 PM »
    Excerpts from:  The Largest Arctic Science Expedition in History Finds Itself on Increasingly Thin Ice.  By Michael Kodas. May 17, 2020 in Inside Climate News. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16052020/arctic-coronavirus-climate-science-mosaic-research 
    The statements below from a great article about the MOSAiC expedition give insight to the current state of the ASI and the 2020 melt season to date.  The article appears to have been written when the May 11-15 weather was in the forecast, but had not happened yet, so the effects of that weather were not known.  The May 11-15 "clear-sky / warm-up / Fram-flush" almost certainly exacerbated the conditions described in the article.

--------------------
     " Even before the expedition had finished setting up its camps and instruments in November, the ice started cracking. Then, a storm sent huge rifts through the floe and knocked out the power system for several days. Cracks revealing open water repeatedly isolated Met City, sometimes forcing researchers to walk for more than an hour around the fissure to reach the site, a few hundred yards from the ship.

     "We just didn't know that we were going to face this much cracking," Shupe told me. "It really did take us by surprise, even though we knew the ice was thin, we knew the Arctic was different, it still snuck out ahead of us somehow." "

----------------------
     " An unusual weather pattern, which included the opening this spring of the largest ozone hole ever measured above the Arctic, produced winds that pushed MOSAiC's ice floe across the pole much faster than the expedition's organizers expected.

     "We have this kind of flow regime in the Arctic right now that's been really static," Shupe said. "It's stuck where it is and it's blowing us across the Arctic faster than anticipated, faster than any of the past 12 years that we used in our analysis to figure out where we would go." "

--------------------
     "Maybe the ice would slow down or even reverse direction, as it had early in the expedition, he thought. Colder weather might freeze some of the leads of open water that had fractured MOSAiC's floe. Maybe the ice would stabilize. But, increasingly, Shupe was having to come to terms with the fact that the ice floe he had hoped would be the expedition's home for a full year was unlikely to survive the summer.

     "I went into it ready to be surprised, and it still got out ahead of me," he told me. "How fragile the ice has been. I knew it was gonna be thin, but it's still thinner and more fragile than I thought it would be."  "

« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 12:05:09 AM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #933 on: May 18, 2020, 08:43:36 PM »
I spent the morning reading the forecasts for Barrow and Prudhoe Bay and it sounds like the region will clear out going into Wednesday. Once again, the forecasts cited the high near the East Siberian Sea.

Along with that area, I've been looking at the Kara as well given what I've seen posted here about it. In general, it appears that much of the Russian side of the arctic cannot escape direct sun. I don't know what to expect or how much this preconditions the area, but given the forecast, I think what has happened will have a significant impact on the entire ice pack's mobility.

Either way, here's a screen capture of the melt going on in that area with the red lines indicating changes in the ice color.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #934 on: May 18, 2020, 10:47:37 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

The Kara sea will be getting a roasting in a few days from now, with the Laptev also getting its share of heat.

Positive temperatures for the Beaufort are also in the forecast.

The forecast for Fram exports looks good, with southerlies holding the ice back. But I've seen a possibility of that changing on the long term forecast.

Wind in the Bering strait will continue to come from the north until the end of the week, when a change in wind and temperature is expected.

I was under the impression from last weeks forecast that temperatures on the CAB would go down a little, but it seems they won't be dropping anytime soon.

We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.

Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #935 on: May 18, 2020, 11:58:23 PM »
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.

Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
True, but it looks like we'll be there a lot faster this year.

I've compared these graphs already here just last week, and today I noticed on the data thread that 2006 was 6th in extent.





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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #936 on: May 19, 2020, 12:09:34 AM »
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.

Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
True, but it looks like we'll be there a lot faster this year.

I've compared these graphs already here just last week, and today I noticed on the data thread that 2006 was 6th in extent.








Yeah it seems that way but unless we end up with a major dipole anomaly the last 10 days of May temps won't reach  the blue line any earlier than normal.

It's really amazing how consistent it is during the summer.

It appears to be tied to solar altitude
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #937 on: May 19, 2020, 12:12:35 AM »
Hot off NASA's presses, the current state of the sea ice in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas. Plus the (lack of?) snow cover across the adjacent land:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2020-images/#ESS
Forgive my ignorance here, but is the explanation for the color changing from light orange to bright red and then back to orange (e.g. ESS along the coast between May 9th and 15th) simply surface melting and then re-freezing?

2nd dumb question: does surface melt earlier in the season have a mechanical impact on melt later in the season (e.g. if re-frozen ice, for some reason, melts easier than if it hadn't melted in the 1st place) or is it simply the direct impact of the albedo change occurring for the duration of surface melt (i.e. until it has re-frozen)?
« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 12:22:55 AM by thejazzmarauder »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #938 on: May 19, 2020, 12:45:38 AM »
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.
Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.

    FWIW - An unscientific "blow up the graph, add lines and eyeball it" estimate has the DMI >80N daily mean temperature at >= 0C for an average of 68 days from June 10 to August 17. 
    Using a saltwater ice melt threshold of >= -1.8C, the over-threshold season lengthens to 89 days from May 31 to August 27.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2020, 02:00:42 PM by Glen Koehler »

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #939 on: May 19, 2020, 12:47:04 AM »
Yeah it seems that way but unless we end up with a major dipole anomaly the last 10 days of May temps won't reach  the blue line any earlier than normal.

It's really amazing how consistent it is during the summer.

It appears to be tied to solar altitude
I have a funny feeling that we'll see more extreme Eurasian heat waves penetrate deep into the CAB this year. But I also know that this goes against all common knowledge, that temps in the Arctic can only go above the green line when we have a BOE.

So I'm probably wrong about this, but somehow I think it could happen. I guess we'll know in a few months from now...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #940 on: May 19, 2020, 01:55:25 AM »
It's a hot day near Hudson Bay.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #941 on: May 19, 2020, 02:47:27 AM »
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.

Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
True, but it looks like we'll be there a lot faster this year.

I've compared these graphs already here just last week, and today I noticed on the data thread that 2006 was 6th in extent.








Yeah it seems that way but unless we end up with a major dipole anomaly the last 10 days of May temps won't reach  the blue line any earlier than normal.

It's really amazing how consistent it is during the summer.

It appears to be tied to solar altitude

I would imagine that would be the case but what is so impressive this year is just how quick the PV has weakened everywhere and we are seeing temperatures well above normal on quite a widespread scale hence the North Pole showing as above average.

Talking of dipoles, there is a growing trend one may be on its way soon, pressure looks like its going to rise around the Beaufort sea and this could lead to the dipole set up. Bit too far out to be certain on the details at this stage though.

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2020 melting season
« Reply #942 on: May 19, 2020, 04:31:59 AM »
2012 was the record low 2.25M.
2016 came in as a respectable 2nd with 2.45M.

Looking back over the 2016 weather charts thats really amazing.

The weather was not exceptionally warm at all.

Infact it appears that large areas of Arctic basin we're actually below normal

Well before normal.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #943 on: May 19, 2020, 05:09:43 AM »
2016 had early open water within the Arctic Ocean, and a lot of export into the Atlantic. It also had a string of powerful August cyclones, though not as effective as the 2012 GAC.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #944 on: May 19, 2020, 08:11:49 AM »
is the explanation for the color changing from light orange to bright red and then back to orange (e.g. ESS along the coast between May 9th and 15th) simply surface melting and then re-freezing?

Yes, refreezing and/or fresh snow.

Quote
does surface melt earlier in the season have a mechanical impact on melt later in the season

Yes, it's changing the albedo. More sunlight will be absorbed.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #945 on: May 19, 2020, 10:52:09 AM »
2016 had early open water within the Arctic Ocean, and a lot of export into the Atlantic. It also had a string of powerful August cyclones, though not as effective as the 2012 GAC.

2020 seems to have openings as well and lots of export (also 2019 fall export was strong) , soooo.....if we have some storms during summer we could see "uncharted territories" this year

 

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #946 on: May 19, 2020, 12:30:59 PM »
In the first half of May 2020 was lagging 2016 and 2019 in the High Arctic Albedo-Warming Potential indicator, which basically multiplies open water and latitude-based insolation (developed and calculated by Nico Sun). However, there's a long season ahead and the recent snow conditioning over wide parts of the High Arctic is much more important at this stage.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #947 on: May 19, 2020, 09:08:11 PM »
The 12Z EURO finally brings the hammer.

Big swing towards a late May dipole.

Verbatim the euro would walk us into June 1st primed to not only keep pace with 2012 but probably take the lead starting June.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #948 on: May 19, 2020, 09:13:20 PM »
2016 had early open water within the Arctic Ocean, and a lot of export into the Atlantic. It also had a string of powerful August cyclones, though not as effective as the 2012 GAC.

It had that mega dipole at the end of the month I seem to recall, I think Nevan did a blog post about it at the time it was that exceptional albeit I don't think it accelerated ice losses unlike 2012s weather event.

2016 was a funny year as the ice melted out quite slowly across the basin in general(especially in the Laptev sea) but it was heavily diffused and spread out with many 'holes' in the interior of the ice pack. It's also funny because whilst 2016 finished a little bit ahead of 2019. The ice in 2019 looked somewhat more compact especially near the pole so I still have the theory, compaction and certain types of high pressure systems is not as bad as it makes out to be.

Of course one of the reasons Ive no doubt why 2019 went so low was down to the very high SSTs we had last year.

Back to the hear and now, the so called more favourable set ups of the pressure pattern turning slack does not look like lasting too long, the dipole returning is gaining strength and the Beaufort high is set to return so expect the ice to start drifting away from the coasts around there.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #949 on: May 19, 2020, 09:21:30 PM »
You may have to click to animate.

I used the surface with 850mb temps instead of h5 and surface to highlight  the well above normal warmth with only moderate heights.

Maybe the lowered albedo is already having an affect.  I don't know.

Either way this is impressive and if it doesn't seem like it.

Remember it's only May.

Historically getting any 0C+ 850mb temps over the Arctic basin in May is almost non-existent.



I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
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it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow