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Glen Koehler

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #950 on: May 19, 2020, 11:12:09 PM »
RE long-term arctic sea ice volume deviation chart
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg264869.html#msg264869

     Thanks Stephan.  I don't have the foresight to make Sept. predictions, but I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the upside anomaly in the current chart will fall back a lot closer to the long-term trend line when the May 2020 volume data are included.

jdallen

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #951 on: May 19, 2020, 11:53:04 PM »
RE long-term arctic sea ice volume deviation chart
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg264869.html#msg264869

     Thanks Stephan.  I don't have the foresight to make Sept. predictions, but I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the upside anomaly in the current chart will fall back a lot closer to the long-term trend line when the May 2020 volume data are included.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #952 on: May 20, 2020, 12:10:20 AM »
After a very high maximum and a slow start to melting, the Central Seas (aka High Arctic) are losing area fast, and mostly in the Kara Sea (now lowest in the satellite record ).

I stole this chart from the data thread.

It's interesting because the Kara is about to get the steam roller.

So we can probably expect area in this region to continue to drop along record lows.

The other thing with this Russian Spring heatwave is the snow cover that remains under the big heat done will vanish quickly.

Also river ice that hasn't broken up will likely break up.


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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #953 on: May 20, 2020, 12:36:12 AM »
The Arctic ice surface has refroze pretty well over the inner basin.

So it is pretty much impossible to see the Arctic ice surface go straight into melt in early/middle May because solar altitude isn't good enough.

And if you are wondering why the Arctic surface can see melt all the way to the pole until the end of the first week of August and between 70-80N all the way towards the end of August.

That is because:

Ice temperature (like through the ice) by then is at 0c.  Infact this heat wave certainly warmed up the ice over a large area show Even though the surface has Frozen backup that's probably only inches deep and I mean barely inches deep.

Of course over the Canadian basin the ice is still well below freezing at depth.  This is part of that pretty conditioning process.

The surface albedo is much lower by then

The ice thickness and compactness is wrecked compared to now


So while we have seen preconditioning the melt season really hasn't started yet

This means SOLAR ALTITUDE just isn't high enough until the first week of June to overcome albedo.


This means we well have to see background temps warm likely another 2-4C around the ice in May and snow cover to vanish at least a week earlier than the current earliest before we see ice volume sustainably go lower than it already has.

This means a total melt out isn't likely until 2035-2040 or later

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #954 on: May 20, 2020, 12:40:33 AM »
I forgot to add the graphic.

We can see the change right back to frozenish compared to 3 days ago
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #955 on: May 20, 2020, 09:14:06 AM »
May 15-19.

2019.

Wildcatter

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #956 on: May 20, 2020, 09:58:32 AM »
Looks like there's a good chance of open water from Kara -> Laptev in a couple days. Winds today will help pry it open a little more as heat starts over Kara. The heat+winds keeps moving, advecting from Eurasia, over Kara, Severnaya, Laptev. Winds likely to start advancing the bite.. Will be interesting to see what happens with the ESS ice with wind coming up, system also might want to migrate in that direction, Severnaya leads might be interesting too.

In 3-4 days heat should be starting to reach Chukchi, Alaska warming up, wind stress on the Beaufort ice + warmer temps. With the winds from the Laptev as well, some anti-cyclonic forcing, probably won't be too long before the coastal ice gives.

It's looking like there's a pretty good chance we go into June with no real landfast ice, besides the CAA. I don't think that's ever happened before.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 10:26:15 AM by Wildcatter »

pauldry600

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #957 on: May 20, 2020, 11:31:19 AM »
It's looking like there's a pretty good chance we go into June with no real landfast ice, besides the CAA. I don't think that's ever happened before


I dont think this is at all likely. Ice always finds some coast to grip but it is more mobile I admit.

marcel_g

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #958 on: May 20, 2020, 02:52:40 PM »

This means SOLAR ALTITUDE just isn't high enough until the first week of June to overcome albedo.


This means we well have to see background temps warm likely another 2-4C around the ice in May and snow cover to vanish at least a week earlier than the current earliest before we see ice volume sustainably go lower than it already has.

This means a total melt out isn't likely until 2035-2040 or later

Interesting idea. Wouldn't the amount of cloud cover and melt ponds during the period of roughly late May to the third week of July be more significant factors that determine higher latitude melt out, rather than air temperature? Mainly by increasing the amount of solar energy that gets through the ice and then does most of the overall melting by bottom melt. I was under the impression that bottom melt did a larger proportion of the melting over the course of the melt season, rather than warmer air over the ice. My assumption is that lot more energy is transferred into the system from sunlight into water than is transferred in via warm air over ice.

Maybe I'm misreading what you're saying? Maybe you're saying that we need 2-4C temperature increase in order to achieve early enough preconditioning and melt ponds to allow enough solar energy through the ice to achieve total melt out above 80 degN?

If so, a normal summer until then would see ice melt rapidly at lower latitudes, but generally stall around 70-80 degN?

Unless there is an unusually sunny period between the last week of May and the third week of July, in that case the melt out might go a lot further north.


Stephan

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #959 on: May 20, 2020, 06:03:47 PM »
RE long-term arctic sea ice volume deviation chart
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg264869.html#msg264869

     Thanks Stephan.  I don't have the foresight to make Sept. predictions, but I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the upside anomaly in the current chart will fall back a lot closer to the long-term trend line when the May 2020 volume data are included.
The statistics say that it is likely that Sep (and Jul, Aug, Oct) volume anomaly will be below the linear trend line. This has happened from 2009 on, with exceptions in 2015 and 2018. In those two years the volume anomaly was around the long term linear trend line.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 06:27:49 PM by Stephan »
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pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #960 on: May 20, 2020, 06:07:13 PM »
I realize this measurement could be more accurate, but look at the size of this iceberg which was ejected out of the Fram. It made some rapid progress south and is now just floating off the eastern coast. I will continue to watch it until its eventual demise/

pls!

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #961 on: May 20, 2020, 06:36:47 PM »
Cool, idea Pearscot. Keep us updated. :)

thejazzmarauder

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #962 on: May 20, 2020, 06:42:51 PM »
I realize this measurement could be more accurate, but look at the size of this iceberg which was ejected out of the Fram. It made some rapid progress south and is now just floating off the eastern coast. I will continue to watch it until its eventual demise/
That's larger than the state of Rhode Island

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #963 on: May 20, 2020, 08:44:34 PM »
The snow melt vs 2019 has been very very bad. Wow.



We are probably in for unprecedented conditions imminently. And massive summertime wildfires across the areas that have played host to largest + departures / early snowmelt across Eurasia.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #964 on: May 20, 2020, 10:18:15 PM »
Holy guacamole...  :o

This is in no way certain. It's still far out into the future. But if there's any truth to this...
Hay naku buhay!  :'(
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #965 on: May 20, 2020, 10:49:24 PM »
The little floe that could (hold back a giant ice bridge in the ESS) just gave way...  :'(
« Last Edit: May 20, 2020, 11:29:07 PM by Freegrass »
Now let's pray...

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ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #966 on: May 21, 2020, 12:40:33 AM »
The snow melt vs 2019 has been very very bad. Wow.



We are probably in for unprecedented conditions imminently. And massive summertime wildfires across the areas that have played host to largest + departures / early snowmelt across Eurasia.

BBR the image link is broken, can you please resubmit?

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #967 on: May 21, 2020, 12:47:18 AM »
The snow melt vs 2019 has been very very bad. Wow.



We are probably in for unprecedented conditions imminently. And massive summertime wildfires across the areas that have played host to largest + departures / early snowmelt across Eurasia.

BBR the image link is broken, can you please resubmit?
Alas, just go to this link & scroll between 2020->2019.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2533595.533333333,765873.5333333337,2602788.466666667,3344766.3333333335&p=arctic&l=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #968 on: May 21, 2020, 01:29:02 AM »
According to Nico Sun's website, 2020 is closing the gap with 2016 for the lowest sea ice area for this time of year. In addition, compaction (which is area/extent) is quite a bit lower than in 2016 at this time.


pearscot

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #969 on: May 21, 2020, 03:00:56 AM »
Wow, that downturn is quite surprising. I mean I expected to see it fall, but not that sharply.

I suppose the one thing I've been thinking about recently is how both the East Siberian and Kara Sea have recieved quite a bit of direct sunlight on the 'small' (relatively speaking) amount of open water and what the implications there are. I know and it has been cited by others in this thread that the central arctic is still cold and below freezing, so while the ice surface has been going thru some freeze/refreeze/snow during May, I can't help but wonder just how much the warming of those seas will melt the surrounding ice there actually is?

Granted waves, wind, and bottom melt are always factors, but those two regions are really fascinating to me this year. Not to mention, the breakdown of land-fast ice has allowed for not only the entire pack rotate into those aforementioned seas, but I wonder how much the injection of ice into those areas will be melted as large cracks continue to appear above Greenland/Canada.

I don't know...I'm not trying to claim stuff I do not yet know, but for the most part, where is is open water indicated in the arctic it's anomalously warm. I also find it REALLY interesting to see 2016 being cited right now for comparisons because I have noticed quite a few similarities (visually speaking) on worldview from 2016 too. Additionally, the Bering Sea of 2020 mirrors that of 2012. Still way too early to know, but with the extended forecast for Barrow predicting a building high over the central arctic in conjunction with more sun and warmth, there is still just so much to focus on right now. 

pls!

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #970 on: May 21, 2020, 05:18:31 AM »
The Laptev, Kara, and Barents should all be near 0 by 6/30 or earlier. I would imagine that would be a first?



The integrity of the ice on the Eurasian side is already worst on record, combined with the very early snow melt vs normal in the highest Russian Arctic, it will be blasted by continental heat through the end of June at varying intervals and is likely to disappear sooner than later. This leaves a clear and obviously wide front well into the CAB come July, IMO.

On the plus side, HYCOM shows a LOT more volume in the Beaufort Gyre / pushed against the CAA. It looks like where the ice was retrenched should easily be safe no matter what, with wide areas of 3M+ thickness now appearing.

binntho

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #971 on: May 21, 2020, 06:37:42 AM »
I realize this measurement could be more accurate, but look at the size of this iceberg which was ejected out of the Fram. It made some rapid progress south and is now just floating off the eastern coast. I will continue to watch it until its eventual demise/

I was going to quibble (as usual) that it was an ice floe and not an iceberg. Then I started to think that in the Antarctic, bigger icebergs than this have been seen. So what about the Arctic, what is the biggest iceberg on record there? Turns out that it is a 100 square mile chunk that broke off Petermann glacier in 2010.

So this is a floe, quite definitely, based on size alone. And if a measurable iceberg were to break off somewhere and start drifting down the Fram I'm sure we would hear about it.

Some 300 miles further south I find a pair of floes, 600 and 400 sqmi respectively, so I guess these big floes are not that unique. But they are good fun, being easy to track.
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #972 on: May 21, 2020, 08:09:53 AM »
The Laptev, Kara, and Barents should all be near 0 by 6/30 or earlier. I would imagine that would be a first?
The Barents is always near 0 by June 30th. The Kara could conceivably get near 0 by that date, seeing as it started early. I will go on record here to claim there is zero probability of the Laptev doing so, regardless of what Hycom may indicate.

wdmn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #973 on: May 21, 2020, 09:10:25 AM »
This is outside of my comfort zone to post about, but I'm sort of surprised by the lack of talk about the 00Z GFS forecast over the next 7 days. Starting Saturday we see above zero Avg. temperatures start to creep in over the Beaufort, the Laptev and the Kara, and then it just keeps coming.

By the 28th almost the whole arctic (excepting the CAA) is at or above 0 avg temperature.

Pavel

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #974 on: May 21, 2020, 09:28:06 AM »
This is outside of my comfort zone to post about, but I'm sort of surprised by the lack of talk about the 00Z GFS forecast over the next 7 days. Starting Saturday we see above zero Avg. temperatures start to creep in over the Beaufort, the Laptev and the Kara, and then it just keeps coming.

By the 28th almost the whole arctic (excepting the CAA) is at or above 0 avg temperature.
It's not 100% reliable but the GFS snow depth forecast supposes the massive meltponding in the inner basin even before June is starting. One can see on the Worldview how quickly the land snow melts each day in northern Siberia

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #975 on: May 21, 2020, 01:15:04 PM »
It's not 100% reliable but the GFS snow depth forecast supposes the massive meltponding in the inner basin even before June is starting. One can see on the Worldview how quickly the land snow melts each day in northern Siberia

In recent years, the Canadian part of the Arctic has consistently been distinguished by the largest snow anomaly in a big way. Direct evidence of aerosol effects from the burning of Canadian bitumen.

<Please do not promote haywire theories on the main thread. This can be discussed in a different thread but needs to be supported with reasoning and evidence. O>
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 03:01:19 PM by oren »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #976 on: May 21, 2020, 01:20:13 PM »
A more accurate depiction of snow anomalies in Canada.

Butterflyy

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #977 on: May 21, 2020, 02:48:50 PM »
Paul Beckwith from Univeraity of Ottawa  was putting forward a theory that a shift of the polar vortex toward groenland as the snow melt was going to happen. 

His point was that the core of the ice will over time only be the glacier mass, and Jet stream will migrate according to this.  This should make the north East canada part more exposed to lower temperature than rest of the surrounding region.

IMO  the lower temperature anomalies observed in the last years in north eastern canada may be due to this new pattern developping. THe increased snow cover may be more related to this than aerosols from bitumen burnt.

oren

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #978 on: May 21, 2020, 03:06:31 PM »
Welcome Butterflyy.
This theory is best discussed elsewhere. Note that its more extreme version (the "Quebec reglaciation") has been promoted all over the forum by a certain user  and is frowned upon by the new moderator.  8)

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #979 on: May 21, 2020, 05:57:15 PM »
Welcome Butterflyy.
This theory is best discussed elsewhere. Note that its more extreme version (the "Quebec reglaciation") has been promoted all over the forum by a certain user  and is frowned upon by the new moderator.  8)

Anyone know where I can find a thread discussing/debunking this and similar theories? The idea that, in a post-BOE world, the air above land ice will become colder than air over water further north is an interesting one...
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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #980 on: May 21, 2020, 08:31:29 PM »
GFS and area data suggest that 2020 will be in first place by this time next week, with an uptick in losses in the Beaufort and Hudson Bay, along with the Siberian side over that time.

bbr2315

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #981 on: May 21, 2020, 09:08:59 PM »
The % decline in Hudson is melt ponding, not disintegration. CICE actually shows most of the ice "flashing" is well over 1M in thickness. It will still melt out anyways at some point, but I am unsure if this year will see very late retention or not -- the volume / thickness could argue for this, although surface conditions in HB itself would argue to the contrary (snowcover surrounding HB also factor in favor of +ice into August).

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #982 on: May 21, 2020, 09:25:32 PM »
Dikson Island (Kara) had new highest of May, +11.1°C. Dew point was above +6°C.

Paul

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #983 on: May 21, 2020, 10:23:09 PM »
Dikson Island (Kara) had new highest of May, +11.1°C. Dew point was above +6°C.

It has been quite an exceptional warm up across that part of the world, less snowcover means more heat and so on and so forth but even so, the lack of snowcover for this time of year is quite exceptional.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #984 on: May 22, 2020, 01:29:25 AM »
Dikson Island (Kara) had new highest of May, +11.1°C. Dew point was above +6°C.

It has been quite an exceptional warm up across that part of the world, less snowcover means more heat and so on and so forth but even so, the lack of snowcover for this time of year is quite exceptional.

Dikson began the day with 10cm snowcover. I expect today's warm max will leave only a small  amount for Friday.

Looking back over previous years, Dikson would typically have between 30cm  and 70cm of snow cover at this time of year.

As we have said many times before in this thread the state of ice and snow on the Russian side is very poor this year. Starting from a record mild winter in western Russian, the heat has been steadily building up and expect many more frequent heat attacks on the Arctic east of 0 deg longitude.

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #985 on: May 22, 2020, 04:05:48 AM »

This means SOLAR ALTITUDE just isn't high enough until the first week of June to overcome albedo.


This means we well have to see background temps warm likely another 2-4C around the ice in May and snow cover to vanish at least a week earlier than the current earliest before we see ice volume sustainably go lower than it already has.

This means a total melt out isn't likely until 2035-2040 or later

Interesting idea. Wouldn't the amount of cloud cover and melt ponds during the period of roughly late May to the third week of July be more significant factors that determine higher latitude melt out, rather than air temperature? Mainly by increasing the amount of solar energy that gets through the ice and then does most of the overall melting by bottom melt. I was under the impression that bottom melt did a larger proportion of the melting over the course of the melt season, rather than warmer air over the ice. My assumption is that lot more energy is transferred into the system from sunlight into water than is transferred in via warm air over ice.

Maybe I'm misreading what you're saying? Maybe you're saying that we need 2-4C temperature increase in order to achieve early enough preconditioning and melt ponds to allow enough solar energy through the ice to achieve total melt out above 80 degN?

If so, a normal summer until then would see ice melt rapidly at lower latitudes, but generally stall around 70-80 degN?

Unless there is an unusually sunny period between the last week of May and the third week of July, in that case the melt out might go a lot further north.


That's exactly right.

Solar altitude doesn't get high enough to overcome the snow albedo effect until the first week of June.

We had 4-5 days in a row of 24 sun over large parts of the basin between 75-90N.

And albedo did take a hit but only a little bit.

The full wetness look on satellite never materialized.

And once temps slightly cooled and sun vanished the surface froze back up.

And yeah for bottom melt direct solar insolation is required.

But warm air advection can ravage the surface way now than sun because the solar ALTITUDE always sucks North of 70.

I live at 38.75N in the United States.

And right now the sun during peak heating is almost directly overhead.

A couple days ago we had very strong CAA... Temps were in the mid to upper 50s which is currently about 20-23F below normal.

We had low level cumulous clouds rotating in from the NW.

It was a very cold day.  Or felt cold considering what time of year it is.

Well the cumulous deck covered about 65 percent of the sky.

And when the sun would peak out it instantly felt like the gates of hell were breathing fiire down on your skin.

In January when its 50F under the same conditions.

And the sun breaks out you feel essentially no difference on your skin.

It doesn't start becoming very noticeable until early February.

By March is very noticeable.

Anyways solar altitude between 80-90N barely goes above 25° and I believe at the pole it never rises above 23.5° but I may be incorrect about that.

My point is to melt out the 3M+ MYI in the CAB we will definitely need big time dipole sun in June/July.

But also great preconditioning.

It would help immensely to see snow cover over the CAA be essentially gone by June 1st.

And then we would need not just sun.  But a HP/SLP set up that brings a surface wind fetch that origionates West and Northwest of the Hudson Bay over the last lands of Canada.

This allows the low level air mass to heat up dramatically more than a flow either over the Hudson Bay, East of there over the Baffin and CAA waterways, or West over the Beaufort or Western CAA waterways.

This route if it could become established for more than a couple days could be devestating to the CAB.

In late July 2012 a similar set up took place between July 29-Aug 4th. 

It completely destroyed a large part of the Western CAB.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #986 on: May 22, 2020, 04:23:30 AM »
This is outside of my comfort zone to post about, but I'm sort of surprised by the lack of talk about the 00Z GFS forecast over the next 7 days. Starting Saturday we see above zero Avg. temperatures start to creep in over the Beaufort, the Laptev and the Kara, and then it just keeps coming.

By the 28th almost the whole arctic (excepting the CAA) is at or above 0 avg temperature.
It's not 100% reliable but the GFS snow depth forecast supposes the massive meltponding in the inner basin even before June is starting. One can see on the Worldview how quickly the land snow melts each day in northern Siberia

Unfortunately there is no way the ice on the Atlantic side is has that much snow depth.  So it's equally likely the snow depth on the Pacific side is no where near that low.

I'd love for reliable snow depth over the ice.


I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

1rover1

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #987 on: May 22, 2020, 05:06:13 AM »
For some real time images of the snow in the CAA there are a few good cameras at Canadian airports on the Nav Canada WxCam site.     

https://www.metcam.navcanada.ca/hb/index.jsp?lang=e





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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #988 on: May 22, 2020, 07:33:56 AM »
May 17-21.

2019.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #989 on: May 22, 2020, 08:10:44 AM »
The gfs in the long range shows the pattern I'm talking about for the CAB/CAA.

Before this a quasi dipole does  form
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #990 on: May 22, 2020, 08:13:21 AM »
Snow cover has freaking vanished.

Good lord
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #991 on: May 22, 2020, 08:56:24 AM »
The solar altitude idea is quite interesting as well as the projection of ice remaining 80-90 degrees to the north until perhaps 2040 as a consequence of low solar angle in the high latitude. I have been looking at this issue from perspective of sea ice stability and sea ice variabilities. I suspect as the mobility is increasing, sea ice is pushed increasingly to open areas as sea ice scattering increases.

To resolve half way the above problem, we at Sea Research Society, would be grateful if someone with skills on spreadsheets and data could put out a graph which shows the minimum-maximum sea ice area on each day. The simplest this type graph would be to show each date's highest-ever and lowest-ever value and the relation of current year's reading (its place) against these two boundaries. This is a very primitive and not too helpful -- except for public purposes to show current years position in media. For the general public having a set of multiple curves is confusing and newspaper space limits the size of graph in print. If a graph of highest-lowest ever is made you can fit it in 1-2 inch graph in magazine, for newspaper there are a bit more options but generally I believe most people find extra curves confusing. They don't have scientific value, just informative one as printing space is limited.

A more useful graph for ASIF community would be one that shows 5 / 10-year moving average of sea ice area variability. This could give us projections how broad range of outcomes of sea ice scattering and melt would be in future. Walt Meier just wrote a paper on sea ice movement increasing 10% per decade. Suggested chart, I suggest, could provide indication how sea ice area variability has evolved in time: this changing variability unfolds future in case the moving averages reveal a widening outcome spectrum. I suspect huge fanning ahead in possible sea ice extents.

Unfortunately we at SRS are not able to do it as our strength areas are in marine archeology and anthropology where we are world leaders in a deep diving. Our teaching programme for deep divers for oil rigs is just 5th accepted centre of learning in whole USA (including US Navy). Thus we have had archaeological excavations conducted under 180 metres below sea surface from sea bed pressurised cabin. This makes us the only archaeological organisation to excavate former Palaeolithic sites at Last Glacial Maximum at 120-130 metres below sea level. But we are hampered with funding to our work.

Palaeolithic archaeological work is important for understanding how fast sea level rose in the past:

There is a worrying amount of sites where pots and pans are left behind that suggests huge displacement events by collapsing ice sheets that are not at all in current geophysical model. This imply that they simply must be wrong. Valuable items are never left behind if people can collect them! I have been warning at UK Houses of Parliament of various failings and overconfidence of geophysicists. This must remain SRS' focus to warn about problem geophysical models do not capture.

The other similar problem is the pulverising effect which is lacking in Pleistocene sites when it shouldn't. If sea level changes slowly, the waves excavate soils and pulverise even strong buildings. This has not happened in the ice Ages, and many buildings over large areas remain immersed intact in water (unless a by-passing trawler net has caught and damaged them). From geophysical point of view I've captured and offered explanation to above in my Parliament evidence giving most recently: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

I have not been contributing graphs here in ASIF last four years. The last one of mine being corrections to US Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite when its Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) data began providing erratic passive microwave brightness temperatures (and its derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice products). President Trump then stupidly if not disgustingly trashed US$ 400 million US Navy replacement satellite on ground with his typical arrogant style thus wasting taxpayers money (much like ensuring coronaviruses to populate the US and reduce human emissions).

To resolve issues discussed here, we need a new type of graph that shows the changing variability of spectrum of sea ice area and extent outcomes. I expect this rainbow be widening and I don't believe sea ice remaining safe until 2040. I understand that the idea of ice remaining was flouted as theoretical idea rather than expected outcome knowing the decreasing barriers as ocean opens and ice has more space to move around, ultimately the islands left as the last constraint.

On geoengineering I've lobbied bridge suspension cabling with lower able pontoons with compressed air to be installed Ellesmere Island - Hans Island - Greenland to reduce ice flow on the Nares Strait and also between the Queen Elizabeth islands to hold sea ice back for shipping lane. So far, I have not gathered great interest on neither idea but they could be used to control southward ice loss.

Based on our experience, we expect Arctic Ocean sea ice loss be catastrophic for North Greenland's ice sheet. Initially the lake-snow effect of the Arctic Ocean (studied by Maurice Ewing and William Donn in 1950's as a potential cause for the ice ages), could lift enough snow from the Arctic Ocean to reverse for a brief moment the sea level rise, then followed by castastrophic collapses due to meltwater build up under and within the ice sheet - suddenly then pushing ocean water table up, with people running from their homes and thus leaving household valuables behind. We can still find these artefacts in original contexts indicating that at least in the Indian Ocean people had no time but just run away.

We do not hear from these just because few people dig Palaeolithic as there is 'no gold and silver' and the work in ocean depths is costly + dangerous with each additional metre of water. In Indian Ocean sites strong currents and no visibility deters divers exploring sites, plus the high cost of this type of deep diving work. The fact we don't hear about it, doesn't mean that the problem does not exist.

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Sea Research Society, Vice President
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society
Solar altitude doesn't get high enough to overcome the snow albedo effect until the first week of June.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 10:04:26 AM by oren »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #992 on: May 22, 2020, 10:12:29 AM »
Great post above.

Don't have time attm to respond.

But I will say the 00z euro brings the heat to the cab, Beaufort, Chuckchi, and part of the CAA.

The winds are compacting slowly turning from the Beaufort to the Pacific side in general.

Quite warm flow downsloping off those Alaska mountains
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #993 on: May 22, 2020, 10:14:27 AM »
VAK, parts of your post are very off-topic here. Some belong in "When will the Arctic go ice-free", "Geoengineering", "Archaeology/Paleontology news". As this is a rare occurrence I will let it stand, but more such posts will have to be moved/edited/deleted,

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #994 on: May 22, 2020, 10:17:41 AM »
The combined NSIDC sea ice area in the Beaufort and Chukchi is 1,585k km2. At this time last year, was 1,317k km2.

The Pacific side is clearly presenting a larger buffer to penetration of some areas where ice is most likely to remain at seasons end (N. Beaufort, N. CAA and western CAB).

I'm keeping my eye on the deep CAB boundary on the Siberian and Atlantic sides as the keys to this season. There is already open water at the boundary line ~ 82N north of FJL. When / where will the open water penetrate into the deep CAB?

edit: while acknowledging the difficulties associated with setting a season end minimum record in 2020, there's a good likelihood of setting the pace with date records in June, July and early August. We're approaching the portion of the calendar where 2016 lost momentum. 
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 10:36:16 AM by Phoenix »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #995 on: May 22, 2020, 11:06:16 AM »
The combined NSIDC sea ice area in the Beaufort and Chukchi is 1,585k km2. At this time last year, was 1,317k km2.

The Pacific side is clearly presenting a larger buffer to penetration of some areas where ice is most likely to remain at seasons end (N. Beaufort, N. CAA and western CAB).

I'm keeping my eye on the deep CAB boundary on the Siberian and Atlantic sides as the keys to this season. There is already open water at the boundary line ~ 82N north of FJL. When / where will the open water penetrate into the deep CAB?

edit: while acknowledging the difficulties associated with setting a season end minimum record in 2020, there's a good likelihood of setting the pace with date records in June, July and early August. We're approaching the portion of the calendar where 2016 lost momentum.

Last year having slightly more open water in the Chuchki doesn't matter.

So far this year has seen unprecedented preconditioning that no modern year has ever seen.

The Eurasian snow cover has straight vanished.

And now the weather is crushing the laptev and Kara and the Beaufort, Chuckchi, Western cab is about to see about perfect preconditioning heading into June.

We don't know what is going to happen in June but so far we are likely going into June in best modern set up to ravage the inner Arctic basin.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

VeliAlbertKallio

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #996 on: May 22, 2020, 11:19:16 AM »
My apologies of banding things together. I should have been more pointed just to state that I have noticed a lack of graphs on ASIF that show evolution of sea ice area and extent variability rising/lowering/staying same over moving 5 and 10 year periods whichever shows better where we are going. If that got lost, then I perhaps shoot my own foot. (I wish I'd be able to create such graphs.)

VAK, parts of your post are very off-topic here. Some belong in "When will the Arctic go ice-free", "Geoengineering", "Archaeology/Paleontology news". As this is a rare occurrence I will let it stand, but more such posts will have to be moved/edited/deleted,
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 11:25:16 AM by VeliAlbertKallio »
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

uniquorn

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #997 on: May 22, 2020, 11:21:17 AM »
Beaufort Sea yesterday, greyscale linear contrast to show floe characteristics. https://go.nasa.gov/2zUX3MR
click for full resolution

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #998 on: May 22, 2020, 11:49:33 AM »
Beaufort Sea yesterday, greyscale linear contrast to show floe characteristics. https://go.nasa.gov/2zUX3MR
click for full resolution
there is a torrid downslope coming to the Beaufort.

The snow on land along the coast is toast over the next week.

The Mackenzie river delta will start to rapidly dethaw.

Assuming heights and winds come as forecasted the factor deciding how things will play out is how much sun will be accompanying the WAA downslope.

Currently solar altitude at Barrow Alaska goes above 30° for 7.5 hours.

23-25° is essentially the magic number for impactful sun on the surface.

30°+ is plenty to go to work smoking the ice.

By June 1st that touches 40° and spends 12 hours above 30°

The peak today is 39°

Any afternoon sun will hammer albedo at this point
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Phoenix

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Re: The 2020 melting season
« Reply #999 on: May 22, 2020, 12:38:50 PM »

We don't know what is going to happen in June but so far we are likely going into June in best modern set up to ravage the inner Arctic basin.

I guess that's a matter of opinion. 2012 and 2016 had very weak freezing seasons which preceded them and set the stage with thinner ice. By comparison, 2020 was a much better freezing season. Hoping for a mid-May PIOMAS volume update which gives us a better idea of thickness.