The 2020 melting season

[Aluminium]

Temperature reached +10.1°С in Sterlegov (75.41 N 88.90 E). Previous record of May was +6.8°С in 2011.

[F.Tnioli]

It's so insanely warm (relatively speaking) in Utqiagvik today! Not the mention the amount of melt ponds on the landfast ice appeared almost instantly. So too did the melting of the lake. Wild!

Timely indeed.

Hey Friv, you hear this? Melt ponds appearing almost instantly. I told you it will happen in 2..3 weeks - exactly 3 weeks ago (this post), when you said it'll be in a month. See, things go wild this time, you see what happens with albedo and i bet you know how it goes.

Think Slater's right?

[F.Tnioli]

...
I think this serves to bolster the notion that June of 2020 could truly be SCORCHING over parts of Eurasia, especially those which were warmest in the composite grab featured above. Simultaneously, the cooling this year has been worse in amplitude / scope (IMO) in NA vs. any year in the subset. I would think this portends a very MIXED and odd next thirty days in the Arctic, with accelerated melt in regions that do not normally melt fully until July (Kara, Barents, Laptev), and "protective" conditions in Hudson and the CAA. While Hudson will melt fully regardless, the conditions this spring could result in a very late or overall minimal melt-out in the CAA, and ensure it is relatively protected compared to the CAB this season.

I see some signs that Siberia would cool down serious deal few weeks onwards, though. Those seas will probably keep melting good deal nonetheless, but can be less than SCORCHING, so not holding my breath about it. As for CAA, obviously it was very lucky so far, yes, but we definitely should not exclude a possibility of some wild CAC wiping solid H2O out of the region some time August, for example. Especially if CAB/Siberian will pick up lots of heat by then.

Another very interesting thing of this development, which you indeed well described - is temperature contrasts. If CAA remains extra cold while say ESAS and around it will go all blue and sunny - then it can create some truly unprecedented winds. We've already seen some this March, but that's March. If similarly unprecedented winds happen say July - i imagine it can be one very new and very powerful factor in this season.

P.S. "CAC" being "Canadian-Arctic cyclone", that was. %)

[Frivolousz21]

It's so insanely warm (relatively speaking) in Utqiagvik today! Not the mention the amount of melt ponds on the landfast ice appeared almost instantly. So too did the melting of the lake. Wild!

Timely indeed.

Hey Friv, you hear this? Melt ponds appearing almost instantly. I told you it will happen in 2..3 weeks - exactly 3 weeks ago (this post), when you said it'll be in a month. See, things go wild this time, you see what happens with albedo and i bet you know how it goes.

Think Slater's right?

That doesn't bode well for the Beaufort and Western CAB

I don't know if that is right.

It will depend on the weather.

I would expect no centralized vortex.

So somewhere will probably always be frying.

The GFS at the very end:

Means nothing.  But is porn

[bbr2315]

The first wildfires are now igniting west of Lake Baikal. These will spread and multiply and I would not be surprised to see major smoke plumes evident by 6/10. We are very early this year.

Past smoke plumes entering the Arctic have oft been accompanied by major LP events. With the pre-conditioning now ongoing perhaps this portends GACC-y events in July and August of 2020.

The zoomed in shot from the 23rd better shows the current ignition points. Also posting the recent temp anomalies. This area has been roasting relative to norm.

<Discussion of the claimed effect of smoke plumes on LP events should take place in a separate thread and will require heavy proof. O>

[pearscot]

It's so insanely warm (relatively speaking) in Utqiagvik today! Not the mention the amount of melt ponds on the landfast ice appeared almost instantly. So too did the melting of the lake. Wild!

Timely indeed.

Hey Friv, you hear this? Melt ponds appearing almost instantly. I told you it will happen in 2..3 weeks - exactly 3 weeks ago (this post), when you said it'll be in a month. See, things go wild this time, you see what happens with albedo and i bet you know how it goes.

Think Slater's right?

I've followed all of this for a while now and don't ever remember seeing melt ponds of any significance occurring in the month of May. Moreover, I'm fairly convinced these conditions are mirrored or worse in both the East Siberian and Kara Seas. Wherever there is any open water in the arctic right now, it appears as +1-5c anomalously warm.

I'll gladly eat crow, but I think this will be the earliest breakup up landfast ice around Barrow and even the Beaufort's small buffer of ice facilitated by a cold winter in that region will not overcome May's weather. I think the entire pack has been affected, especially given how mobile it seems this year as a result of the widening and expansion of cracks along the entire northern coast of Greenland, which is historically older, thicker ice

[Frivolousz21]

The Beaufort has like another 7 days at least of relentless Southerly flow warmth and sun.  Going to go downhill fast

[pearscot]

It's so insanely warm (relatively speaking) in Utqiagvik today! Not the mention the amount of melt ponds on the landfast ice appeared almost instantly. So too did the melting of the lake. Wild!

Timely indeed.

Hey Friv, you hear this? Melt ponds appearing almost instantly. I told you it will happen in 2..3 weeks - exactly 3 weeks ago (this post), when you said it'll be in a month. See, things go wild this time, you see what happens with albedo and i bet you know how it goes.

Think Slater's right?

That doesn't bode well for the Beaufort and Western CAB

I don't know if that is right.

It will depend on the weather.

I would expect no centralized vortex.

So somewhere will probably always be frying.

The GFS at the very end:

Means nothing.  But is porn

I think this is 100% true and will probably be the defining feature of 2020.

No matter what region gets beneficial, ice retention weather, another one is getting torched

You're right about the forecast too, a high is supposed to build and strengthen over that that region

[Frivolousz21]

The changes over the Beaufort region have already been huge.

Click to animate the first image.

[Paul]

I will be a keen interest on the Laptev sea ice during the next 5 days or so, let's see how it reacts to stronger winds but colder air, I suspect the large hole that has developed near Zemlya Island which is quite unprecedented may fill in a little bit given the wind direction.

All eyes onto the ESS, more favourable wind conditions has meant the ice does not look as bad as it did in 2017 but with quite a few days of strong off shore winds forecast, then we may see quite a bit of open water developing on the northern parts of Siberia.

[jdallen]

Slater's model has picked up the current preconditioning  and thinks it is favourable for strong melting way into July.
It predicts 7.34 m km² for July 13th, currently nosediving ...

   Wow, if that forecast verifies, then 2020 would be 600K and 8% below the previous records for July 13 Extent in 2019, 2016, 2012. 

    It is useful to have Phoenix provide a skeptical check on habitual ASIF catastrophism

<snippage>
...  I worship at the church of the long term linear trend, which has the 2012 volume record ... being safe for 5-10 years.
<snippage>
... as I also worship at the church of Volume vs Extent with the Rev. Juan C. Garcia.

Hallelujah, brother

Based on my own limited luck at predicting minimum the last 7 years (though last year, I was pretty close), I very much think in similar terms to your probabilities rather than certainties.  50% chance of beating 2012 looks very much in play.

Meanwhile, SIA is crashing with what, 4 century breaks in as many days?  IN there is the signal that describes how the ice area and extent while higher than some recent years, had it's "excess" above trend primarily in peripheral seas, and primarily on the Pacific side, where it now is rapidly vanishing.  The CAPIE drop is concerning and adds additional gravity to the weather + albedo + area loss metrics that are piling up.  Pray for cloudy weather in June, brother .

[Phoenix]

Slater's model has picked up the current preconditioning  and thinks it is favourable for strong melting way into July.

It predicts 7.34 m km² for July 13th, currently nosediving ...

LOL. The ice apocalypse is a cottage industry. I'll take the over. 

PS - There's a dedicated thread for Slater and another dedicated 2020 prediction thread.

Phoenix, I will not tolerate more such posts with no content and inflaming language that stirs up this thread for no good reason..

Perhaps you can help me iterate to a better approach Oren.

I'm interested in the science and educational aspects regarding Arctic sea ice and the relationship of the ice to the larger AGW / ecological collapse taking place. Good scientific inquiry involves the freedom to explore and evaluate all possibilities and there is value in presenting alternative hypotheses and kicking the tires. Criticism is important in the scientific process.

I'm obviously occupying a role here which is questioning the rate at which the sea ice is projected to disappear. Both in terms of it's total disappearance (BOE) and within the context of a single season. While a good scientific setting would encourage the exploration of alternatives, I seem to be something of a conspicuously lone voice here for the alternative hypothesis that the rate of ice loss is slowing.

Sometimes there is a tension between what people want to hear and the free scientific exploration of unpopular possibilities. For whatever reasons, more people here may have some psychic vested interest in a quicker collapse. At least one person has declared they are rooting for it because it would be simply cool to observe. I think its fair to say that the ASIF community taken as a whole is well ahead of the scientific community literature in terms of its outlook on the sea ice.

I'm willing to take and respond to the criticism associated with presenting an alternative view, but if I'm the only one on the thread who takes up the alternative view, then I wind up having a disproportionate share of the conversation and annoying people who are in the market for the story of more rapid ice loss.

My suggestion is to create a separate thread which can serve as something of an experiment to more fully explore the alternative hypothesis and evaluate the 2020 melt season within the context of that hypothesis and learn. If users want to come and characterize the observations as bullshit, that's fine with me. That's part of the scientific process. But I'm human and I want to be able to call bullshit as well from time to time and this thread isn't the place to do that.

[oren]

A better approach would be to limit the amount of posts hashing the same postulation. This is not the first time somebody came up with the idea that the rate of loss will be slower, and you are not a lone voice in thinking that, rather you are a lone voice in voicing it so much.
Wait for new data, or find old data and present it originally. In the meantime, don't try to respond to any and every post that differs from your opinion. If you must respond, do so in one such post per day. If you prefer to post endlessly on your favorite subject, feel free to open a new thread where it will not disrupt.
Using the quoted example, S. Pansa came up with an interesting fact relevant to the thread's subject - Slater's model's prediction is nosediving. The late Slater's model is well known hereabouts and did not need much explanation. Whether its prediction is good, bad, wrong or right doesn't matter. Your response, OTOH, did not provide any new information. Do I think the model is the holy grail? No, the opposite. Did I respond? No, I did not have anything new or interesting to contribute on the subject.
If you believe most people here come for the drama and are ice doomers, you believe wrongly. Most readers of this thread come here with an open mind, have no preconceived notion of what is going to happen, If they have one they change it monthly, and are humble enough to realize the Arctic is greater than them and is always full of surprises.
Maybe you have not read Friv for enough years to realize he is the first to throw a wet blanket on people's new record expectations, as soon as the evidence points in that direction. His personal wishes and love of drama notwithstanding, science is the judge.
From what I have seen so far, it seems you have built a preconceived notion of how the season will end, and constantly look for various reasons to support this conclusion. You are not being reprimanded because of your claims or opinions, but because of the way the discussion is being held. Take a breath, stick to the science, follow up on your claims and items of interest from time to time, bring new perspectives, and keep an open mind.
If you think current Beaufort volume or extent or whatever predicts Beaufort extent at season's end, why not analyze this quantitatively using past data?
If you think extent correlates with continental temperatures, why not quantify past temperature data of various weather stations, correlate with CAA and Beaufort ice, and compare to the current year so far?
I hope I have made this clear enough. You are a prolific poster with a good scientific approach, which is why I took the time to write such a lengthy post of explanation. But you must make some changes, as outlined herein.

[HapHazard]

A better approach would be to limit the amount of posts hashing the same postulation. [...] In the meantime, don't try to respond to any and every post that differs from your opinion. If you must respond, do so in one such post per day. If you prefer to post endlessly on your favorite subject, feel free to open a new thread where it will not disrupt.

yeah 

[Ice Shieldz]

I think this forum is quite balanced and that collectively we do an excellent job at holding each other accountable to the science, independent of our inevitable biases. Back to the data and observations.

The winds around Beaufort are opening coastal areas, etc to wave action and insolation – especially given the clear skies so far in this animation. In the last frame, it looks like some conditioning may be happening to the sea ice off coastal western Canada & Alaska, as inferred up thread. Caveat, I contrast enhanced this image to emphasize changes in the corrected reflectance bands 7-2-1.

[oren]

Temperature reached +10.1°С in Sterlegov (75.41 N 88.90 E). Previous record of May was +6.8°С in 2011.

Average daily temps normally cross zero in this location in mid-June. This year it happened one whole month early, and is sticking around.
Other locations around the Kara Sea (noted on map) are also abnormally warm.

[blumenkraft]

It is Sunday somewhere on the planet still.

7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies.

[blumenkraft]

Ice drift map.

[blumenkraft]

Fram export via SAR. Click to play.

[JayW]

60 hour loop of the Beaufort/Chukchi area. Snowmelt RGB composite from the RAMMB slider.  My opinion is that this suggests it's been raining to the NW of Utqiagvik. Darker blue means more melting.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20200525021733&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=cira_snowmelt&x=15887.22265625&y=19045.6669921875

 Converted to mp4 for smaller file size.

[be cause]

and at the other side .. Kara has been snowed on .. the bright reds of the 22nd replaced with pale orange today on worldview . That said , no sign of any recovery in the ice . b.c.

[Freegrass]

Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

I have no words...
Just put it on a loop and watch it all happen.
(right click and select loop)

[blumenkraft]

... Kara has been snowed on ...

[gerontocrat]

Seems to me NSIDC showing lots of shades of blue where this early one might expect more white.

[Freegrass]

Here's the hot pacific water (9°C) that is about to enter the Bering Strait, turn right, and melt out the coastal ice on the Beaufort sea. (I think. This is a learning experience)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-163.80,61.55,3000/loc=-165.943,63.017

[Freegrass]

<snip>
That said , no sign of any recovery in the ice . b.c.

I would disagree. The ESS is filling up nicely again with ice, and will continue to do so in the coming days.

Everything else looks horrible...

[Phoenix]

Here's the hot pacific water (9°C) that is about to enter the Bering Strait, turn right, and melt out the coastal ice on the Beaufort sea. (I think. This is a learning experience)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-163.80,61.55,3000/loc=-165.943,63.017

Nice catch. The warm SST's have been kinda AWOL thus far. You are correct, the route of pacific intrusion and the coriolis effect should take the incoming current around the Alaska coast. Don't count on it retaining the 9C temp into the Arctic basin though. It should be a gradual progression above freezing on the other side.

[be cause]

<snip>
That said , no sign of any recovery in the ice . b.c.

I would disagree. The ESS is filling up nicely again with ice ..

I was writing about Kara .. the ESS is quite a distance away .. so there is no reason to disagree with me .. b.c.

 ps .. I don't see any new ice in ESS either . Yes .. mobile ice has moved , but I see no recovery .

[Freegrass]

<snip>
That said , no sign of any recovery in the ice . b.c.

I would disagree. The ESS is filling up nicely again with ice ..

I was writing about Kara .. the ESS is quite a distance away .. so there is no reason to disagree with me .. b.c.

There's still ice in the Kara? Just joking...
I thought you were talking about the entire Arctic. My bad!

Edit.

ps .. I don't see any new ice in ESS either . Yes .. mobile ice has moved , but I see no recovery.

Not a real recovery in the sense that things will be alright again in the ESS, but I mistakenly thought that you couldn't see "any recovery". So the ESS filling up again with ice is a little recovery. The ice is still in very bad shape, but it's not as bad as it was 2 weeks ago.

Now I'm just waiting to see how much more it will fill up with the forecasted winds there. If it gets a little compacted together, it shouldn't melt out as bad as it looked before.

Time will tell...

[blumenkraft]

2020 vs. 2019

Data: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/amsre-amsr2/

[Phoenix]

Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

I have no words...
Just put it on a loop and watch it all happen.
(right click and select loop)

That's a nice clip Freegrass in that it illustrates two different types of warm air advection or WAA. 

On either side of the Bering Strait we see the land based WAA where the pulse of daily heat from Alaska and Russia coincides with the pulse into the Arctic. The heat is more intense adjacent to land and dissipates before it gets too far into the Arctic interior. Occasionally, the atmospheric conditions provide some extra propulsion and you see some faint plumes of heat making it to the CAB. It's a good demonstration of why melting out the CAB is so much harder than the periphery.

On the other side of the screen you see a blast of warmth coming in from the Atlantic over Svalbard. That's coming from a long way away and it isn't getting any local land based boost. It's either coming from Scandinavia or the Atlantic (not sure which or both) with a lot of atmospheric assistance from a massive high pressure system that extends all the way from the mid-Atlantic to the Kara Sea and a low off the coast of Greenland.

Every once in a while, it's useful to explore the source of the heat and the mechanism by which it is transported to the ice. If anyone can enlighten as to the source of the heat entering via the Atlantic, that would be appreciated.

[wdmn]

In spite of a slowdown in extent loss over the last couple of days, area continues its steady (and steep) decline. Nico Sun's graph shows 2020 is now the clear front runner.

[VaughnAn]

Here's a tidbit from Neven from the ASIB:

"One thing I do know, is that the build-up of melting momentum seems to be very large right now."

Posted by: Neven | May 22, 2020 at 02:40

[oren]

2020 vs. 2019

Surprisingly, the CAA looks much worse in 2020. (Hopefully these are just artifacts).

[Phoenix]

2020 vs. 2019

Hey bl,

What conclusions should be drawn from your gif? It isn't labeled nor presented with caveats as to reliability. What do the different colors represent?

Wipneus' April PIOMAS depiction shows a resurrected Beaufort Arm with thickness in the 2.5m + range. It's hard to imagine the activity of the last 3.5 weeks wiping that out.

[Jontenoy]

Oren , you were alluding to the RATE of sea ice area decline. Would this be absolute or % decline ?
I think absolute decline is more important and is a measure of the energy input into the CAB

[blumenkraft]

Edited post.

Conclude away, mate. 

[pearscot]

It's interesting how different the ice is between 2019 and 2020. For the most part, the extent is similar(ish) but the difference between both the Kara and Beaufort Seas are significant.

That said, I'm not sure how important a more "normal" extent (as seen in the Bering Sea this year) matters when much of it is fast, thin, first year ice. The warming Pacific and Atlantic currents facilitate a whole lot of bottom melt sometimes.

[blumenkraft]

The eastern (cloud-free) part of the Lena Delta.

[oren]

Oren , you were alluding to the RATE of sea ice area decline. Would this be absolute or % decline ?
I think absolute decline is more important and is a measure of the energy input into the CAB

Not sure what post you are referring to, but I agree absolute area decline is the more important measure.

[Niall Dollard]

2020 vs. 2019

Here we go again. The Bremen NIC colour map is performing very poorly this year for some reason. Numerous flashes of green 50% ice on and off at various locations the past week.

McClure Strait suddenly all gone to 50% conc. I think not.

On May 14th a huge area of Hudson Bay went green and then shortly after wards back to purple.

Unfortunately the 2019 v 2020 doesnt tell us a whole lot, other than comparing the ice edges.

[Frivolousz21]

2020 vs. 2019

Here we go again. The Bremen NIC colour map is performing very poorly this year for some reason. Numerous flashes of green 50% ice on and off at various locations the past week.

McClure Strait suddenly all gone to 50% conc. I think not.

On May 14th a huge area of Hudson Bay went green and then shortly after wards back to purple.

Unfortunately the 2019 v 2020 doesnt tell us a whole lot, other than comparing the ice edges.

This time of year those big drops in concentration then back up are because of flash melting messing the sensor.

[Frivolousz21]

The GFS shows surface temps immediately jumping above zero during peak INSOLATION times.

If this is legit then holy Fy#$.

The preconditioning is no freaking joke.

[Niall Dollard]

And this time the ECMWF agrees. Not much blue left over the CAB. These look more like July charts (for the CAB). 

Warmth right on the ESS coast.

[Aluminium]

+30.1°С was in Zhigansk. It's located north of the Arctic Circle near the Lena River.

[aperson]

The areas that lost their snow cover from the high pressure dome haven't had any time to collect any new snow cover. Even if the ice refroze/drained after melt-ponding, we're talking about about an albedo of ~0.6 compared to the ~0.9 provided by snow cover. Those temperature charts look like melting momentum in action; insolation will get to work immediately.

[Frivolousz21]

 There is very obvious signs on modis that the Southern CAB where the thickest ice is that there is essentially no snow cover.

Hmm

[Paul]

And this time the ECMWF agrees. Not much blue left over the CAB. These look more like July charts (for the CAB). 

Warmth right on the ESS coast.

But that is not unusual at this time of year though, most years are fairly similar with most parts of the basin having temperatures around zero What was more unusual was how high the temperatures was when that huge high pressure hit the basin mid month.

Anyways some dipole type conditions will hit the basin for the next 5 days or so, Ill be interested too see what the ice will be like in the ESS by then, could be quite interesting just for the winds rather than temperature.

On the subject of melt ponding then looking at worldview, Imo, 2011, 2012 and 2015 looks to have more blue ice than this year does so far on the Pacific side of the basin. 2016 and 2019(especially the latter) has more open water on the pacfic side than this year does. For balance though, this year looks to have the worse condition for sea ice on the siberian side of the basin although 2017 did have quite a bit of open water in the ESS, would not be surprised if we see similar in around 5 days time. In conclusion, I'm not really convinced this year so far has had as much momentum as people may think but I'm not too convinced how long this ice will last when we get the true warm spells hitting the basin.

[binntho]

On the other side of the screen you see a blast of warmth coming in from the Atlantic over Svalbard. That's coming from a long way away and it isn't getting any local land based boost. It's either coming from Scandinavia or the Atlantic (not sure which or both) with a lot of atmospheric assistance from a massive high pressure system that extends all the way from the mid-Atlantic to the Kara Sea and a low off the coast of Greenland.

You may not be aware of the massive heat conveyor belt called the North Atlantic Current, and further south commonly referred to as the Gulf Stream. The oceans carry vast amounts of heat from mid latitudes northwards, both in the Pacific and the Atlantic, and the heat that makes the North Atlantic such a relatively balmy place has it's orgins mostly on the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the ocean conveyor you wil often find a low-pressure conveyor, where one low pressure area after another is carried northwards, essentially being the mechanism by which the high temperatures of the ocean surface is spread outwards to warm the British Isles, Scandinavia, Iceland and Svalbard to temperatures that are far above what is found elsewhere at the same latitudes.

In the Pacific, the North Pacific drift carries heat from mid-latitudes north and east towards the Canadian Pacific coast and southern Alaska, again making those areas much warmer than they otherwise would have been. The warming effects of the oceans can be seen by comparing average temperatures on the western and eastern boundaries of the northern reaches of each ocean. The warm currents hug the eastern boundaries due to the Coriolis effect, keeping them considerably warmer.

The Arctic ocean, being as it is sheltered by landmasses on most sides, mostly misses out on this massive advection of heat from the southern oceans. The only real front open to the oceans is the Atlantic, with the shallow Barents sea and the Svalbard / Franz Josef Land barrier stopping the warm currents from properly entering the Arctic.

If the Arctic was not so sheltered behind the massive landmasses of Asia and N.America with their cooling effect, we would probably see BOE every year.

[Phoenix]

The areas that lost their snow cover from the high pressure dome haven't had any time to collect any new snow cover. Even if the ice refroze/drained after melt-ponding, we're talking about about an albedo of ~0.6 compared to the ~0.9 provided by snow cover. Those temperature charts look like melting momentum in action; insolation will get to work immediately.

NSIDC suggests that the surface albedo drops to 0.75 when snow melt commences and continues to drop as melt ponds deepen. Are we already at the phase of deep melt ponds?

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html

After the snow does begin to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo of approximately 0.4 to 0.5, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. Albedo drops further as melt ponds grow and deepen.