The 2020 melting season

[Phoenix]

On the other side of the screen you see a blast of warmth coming in from the Atlantic over Svalbard. That's coming from a long way away and it isn't getting any local land based boost. It's either coming from Scandinavia or the Atlantic (not sure which or both) with a lot of atmospheric assistance from a massive high pressure system that extends all the way from the mid-Atlantic to the Kara Sea and a low off the coast of Greenland.

The Arctic ocean, being as it is sheltered by landmasses on most sides, mostly misses out on this massive advection of heat from the southern oceans. The only real front open to the oceans is the Atlantic, with the shallow Barents sea and the Svalbard / Franz Josef Land barrier stopping the warm currents from properly entering the Arctic.

In the interest of keeping this thread on topic, I reply here if you want to continue.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=3097.msg265708#msg265708

Regarding the concept that a land barrier is an impediment to Atlantic water entering the Arctic, I diagree. The Spitsbergen Current brings enough warm Atlantic water to the Arctic to melt all the ice many times over. The defense mechanism against the Atlantic water is the less dense fresh water lens at the surface. Uniquorn might be a good person to comment on this.

https://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/spitsbergen.html

[Frivolousz21]

The 00z GFS is trending worse and worse everyday for the ice going into June. 

We've seen this a lot.  We'll have to wait and see if models push the vortex smaller and SW of GIS and pop a dipole from GIS through the cab/CAA.

That's the hammer to crushing records.

The current forecast just keeps 2020 in the front running.

We get a dipole to pop during the first week of June 2020 will be in the driver's seat in a free fall

[Frivolousz21]

When you look back at modis367.....

2020 looks worse than every year.

2011 is similar.

All years are cloudy with high albedo still.  Except 2015 was low in the Beaufort region.

2014 was lowish in the laptev region.

2013 was way behind every year even 2009.

2018 and 2020 we're the most clear with 2011 right behind.

The Arctic will only become more clear the next few days.

All can say is regardless of the extent and area which will run near record lows because of the quasidipole flow and Kara being f$#_ed.

But the most important thing is the ice is being hammered with INSOLATION

The 00z gem is straight deadly for the ice.  But that model sucks. 

[Frivolousz21]

Also it appears the lower concentration on the Breman graphics in the Beaufort and Chuckchi is areas of low thickness.

Some of you should investigate... It's really hard tp
to define but that's how it looks to me.

[Hefaistos]

...the massive heat conveyor belt called the North Atlantic Current, and further south commonly referred to as the Gulf Stream. The oceans carry vast amounts of heat from mid latitudes northwards...
If the Arctic was not so sheltered behind the massive landmasses of Asia and N.America with their cooling effect, we would probably see BOE every year.

Maybe not this year, as the SST anomalies are rather negative for the areas where the NAO runs its course, /Gulf stream is very cool this year.

[Frivolousz21]

...
If the Arctic was not so sheltered behind the massive landmasses of Asia and N.America with their cooling effect, we would probably see BOE every year.

Maybe not this year, as the SST anomalies are rather negative for the areas where the NAO runs its course, /Gulf stream is very cool this year.

Geezuschrist there's almost no cool anomalies

[Hefaistos]

Geezuschrist there's almost no cool anomalies

I was referring to what Binntho wrote about the NAO, nothing else.

[Aluminium]

May 21-25.

2019.

[Niall Dollard]

Close up of northern Bering Sea shows cool SST anomalies there for period May 15 to 21.

[Niall Dollard]

And this time the ECMWF agrees. Not much blue left over the CAB. These look more like July charts (for the CAB). 

Warmth right on the ESS coast.

But that is not unusual at this time of year though, most years are fairly similar with most parts of the basin having temperatures around zero

In conclusion, I'm not really convinced this year so far has had as much momentum as people may think but I'm not too convinced how long this ice will last when we get the true warm spells hitting the basin.

Maybe our perception of what is normal is coloured by our memory of recent (warm) summers.

But referring to climate reanalyzer which uses the base 1979-2000, nearly the whole of the Arctic Basin is forecast to have red positive 2m temperatures over the next 5 days with the exception of eastern Beaufort which is at around normal.

But I am not too quick to jump in and say we are worse off than ever before. The coming 6 weeks will really decide it and I am very concerned about the Russian side.

[gerontocrat]

There was a lot of comment on the unusual loss of snow in Siberia adding to the grim prospects for sea ice bordering Russia.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current says -  Nyet.

Apart from Central Siberia snow in Arctic Eurasia is at or above average - especially in Norway/Western Siberia & far eastern Siberia. Snow melt is certainly progressing at an extreme rate but from above average snow mass (SWE) and snow cover extent (SCE). I take no comfort from that as the ice seems to be disintegrating at a rapid rate of knots anyway without this added impetus.

And the snow will probably be gone over Arctic Eurasia to all intents and purposes in a week.

[be cause]

and the 0600 gfs forecast is even warmer for the Arctic than the 00.00 forecast Friv was excited about . This year really really wants to be a record breaker ..

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=15&carte=1

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=15&carte=1

.. b.c.

[Aluminium]

Apart from Central Siberia snow in Arctic Eurasia is at or above average - especially in Norway/Western Siberia & far eastern Siberia.

There is a comparison with 2000-2019. In addition, the Taymyr Peninsula actually looks darker than in any year since 2000.

[ArcticMelt2]

[grixm]

Apart from Central Siberia snow in Arctic Eurasia is at or above average - especially in Norway/Western Siberia & far eastern Siberia.

There is a comparison with 2000-2019. In addition, the Taymyr Peninsula actually looks darker than in any year since 2000.

By the way, you were a few minutes early to get today's image, which looks even worse.

[Milwen]

 

[Pavel]

You cannot have the bad conditions everywhere at the same time. The positive land snow anomalies are situated in the places far from the CAB. The whole inner basin will start to melt in less than a week. Lower albedo, more energy absorbed and futher albedo drop. The ice between the Pole and Laptev is not thick enough that one could be confident it will survive

[jdallen]

In spite of a slowdown in extent loss over the last couple of days, area continues its steady (and steep) decline. Nico Sun's graph shows 2020 is now the clear front runner.

In some ways, extent is a trailing indicator... have a look at how area has nosedived over the last few days.

NSIDC Area losses
18th -  79K
19th -  96K
20th -  97K
21st -  86K
22nd - 105K
23rd - 111K
24th - 118K
25th -  83K

I believe we are looking at a cliff?  775K area loss in 8 days?

I believe its a few weeks ahead of schedule?

[Wildcatter]

If you go check out the NASA image from today, check out the hole that developed above Svalbard - just gets blown open hah, general movement of ice around FJL (Atlantic side ice has pulled back from the coasts due to arctic wind direction), the Kara ice cracking off the coast of Severnaya down basically its entire coast the last couple days, and it looks like some of those Kara winds caught a piece of the Kara ice and just dispersed it (right next to the island in the main "body" of the kara ice). I'd make some gifs or videos but I am without a mouse currently on a half broken laptop, seems like my computers are going through their own "melting season". Ha ha.

This is about the time of year where Bremen doesn't really catch everything because it seems to be sensitive to cloud cover. Gon' have to look at the NASA a good bit.

Will be interesting to see what this Atlantic-side wind and some heat movement will do on the ice on that side. The actual ice between FJL and Svalbard looking pretty flimsy. The Severnaya coast was kinda surprising, and Kara will get some more winds up that weak spot, sitting in some more warmth in general.

Nothing too groundbreaking, but some fun observations.

[SimonF92]

Figure from the regional miner i wrote. Looks bad pretty much everywhere.

Someone asked me to change the calibration from 2010-2019 to 2012-2019, so I did that

[Freegrass]

Is that open water I see through the clouds? It has been few days since we were able to see the Yenisey river... This is just before it enters the Yenisey Gulf.

[Hefaistos]

Maybe not this year, as the SST anomalies are rather negative for the areas where the NAO runs its course, /Gulf stream is very cool this year.

Geezuschrist there's almost no cool anomalies

The rather strong cool anomaly in the N.Atlantic is seen better on Nullschool.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-65.65,62.46,434/loc=-42.440,44.515

Also, global temperature anomalies continue down, according to daily data.

[blumenkraft]

Is that open water I see through the clouds? It has been few days since we were able to see the Yenisey river... This is just before it enters the Yenisey Gulf.

Peaking through the clouds, it sure looks like open waters.

Link >> https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=70.7200402044121&lng=83.14367294311523&zoom=14&preset=CUSTOM&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=1.0&gamma=1.0&time=2019-11-01%7C2020-05-26&atmFilter=&showDates=true&evalscript=cmV0dXJuIFtCOEEqMS41LEIwMyoxLEIwMioxXQ%3D%3D

[romett1]

Seems like wild temperatures are starting to reappear near Laptev coast next week. This image is for June 4th, Climate Reanalyzer.

[thejazzmarauder]

When you look back at modis367.....

2020 looks worse than every year.

2011 is similar.

All years are cloudy with high albedo still.  Except 2015 was low in the Beaufort region.

2014 was lowish in the laptev region.

2013 was way behind every year even 2009.

2018 and 2020 we're the most clear with 2011 right behind.

The Arctic will only become more clear the next few days.

All can say is regardless of the extent and area which will run near record lows because of the quasidipole flow and Kara being f$#_ed.

But the most important thing is the ice is being hammered with INSOLATION

The 00z gem is straight deadly for the ice.  But that model sucks.

This might be a dumb question, but is anomalous insolation bad for the ice independent of its effects or because of the effects caused? For example, was the recent high pressure over the high arctic bad for some reason other than the observable impacts (e.g. the temporary reduction in albedo in the ESS)?

[pearscot]

I just wanted to post this up since I found it pretty astonishing to compare 2020 to 2019 in terms of snow cover on the Russian side (with the Lena River delta being in the bottom left).

It's so obvious to see the sheer expanse of snow melt. Additionally, 2019's snow cover is what I would consider a decent average in terms of previous years looking more similar than different.

[ajouis]

When you look back at modis367.....

2020 looks worse than every year.

2011 is similar.

All years are cloudy with high albedo still.  Except 2015 was low in the Beaufort region.

2014 was lowish in the laptev region.

2013 was way behind every year even 2009.

2018 and 2020 we're the most clear with 2011 right behind.

The Arctic will only become more clear the next few days.

All can say is regardless of the extent and area which will run near record lows because of the quasidipole flow and Kara being f$#_ed.

But the most important thing is the ice is being hammered with INSOLATION

The 00z gem is straight deadly for the ice.  But that model sucks.

This might be a dumb question, but is anomalous insolation bad for the ice independent of its effects or because of the effects caused? For example, was the recent high pressure over the high arctic bad for some reason other than the observable impacts (e.g. the temporary reduction in albedo in the ESS)?

It is bad because it melts ice, creates melt ponds which precondition ice, increase ssts, increase air moisture (necessary for a gac), means no replenished snow cover (although that’s a lot less important as we go into summer, and, as you said, it lowers albedo. On the other hand high pressure means no immediate storms, more heat dissipation and less of other modes of melting (bottom melt, export) that can benefit from stormy weather

[Phoenix]

I just wanted to post this up since I found it pretty astonishing to compare 2020 to 2019 in terms of snow cover on the Russian side (with the Lena River delta being in the bottom left).

It's so obvious to see the sheer expanse of snow melt. Additionally, 2019's snow cover is what I would consider a decent average in terms of previous years looking more similar than different.

Thanks for the images pearscot. i appreciate the benchmarking of 2020 vs. 2019 which was a recent robust melt season. I think this kind of comparison provides more insight into the relative strength of the current season than a GFS temp anomaly chart comparing to 30 years ago.

I have a question for anyone here regarding the importance of continental snow levels in evaluating the sea ice situation. My simple interpretation is that they are an indicator of continental albedo. Lower continental albedo means the land can heat up more and has increased potential to contribute heat to the ice via warm air advection (WAA). Do others see it the same way or is their more to the connection between continental snow and sea ice?

[ajouis]

I am pretty sure snow cover affects climate, although I don’t know how, and besides that, it means an earlier in local ssts once the snow melt has warmed, and earlier higher air moisture. I don’t know if timing of melt has an incidence on events like described a few days ago about 2012 with a brutal warmed up runoff hitting the ice

[Phoenix]

For another comparison of 2020 vs. 2019, here's a thread from this time last year which does a good job of documenting the early 2019 annihilation of the Beaufort.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2704.0.html

Aluminum's gifs from last years melting thread also provide a great comparison.

[Frivolousz21]

I just wanted to post this up since I found it pretty astonishing to compare 2020 to 2019 in terms of snow cover on the Russian side (with the Lena River delta being in the bottom left).

It's so obvious to see the sheer expanse of snow melt. Additionally, 2019's snow cover is what I would consider a decent average in terms of previous years looking more similar than different.

Thanks for the images pearscot. i appreciate the benchmarking of 2020 vs. 2019 which was a recent robust melt season. I think this kind of comparison provides more insight into the relative strength of the current season than a GFS temp anomaly chart comparing to 30 years ago.

I have a question for anyone here regarding the importance of continental snow levels in evaluating the sea ice situation. My simple interpretation is that they are an indicator of continental albedo. Lower continental albedo means the land can heat up more and has increased potential to contribute heat to the ice via warm air advection (WAA). Do others see it the same way or is their more to the connection between continental snow and sea ice?

There's is a huge correlation between anomalous and snow snow extent loss and sea ice loss.

[Frivolousz21]

Its  way out there in the super long range so take it with a grain of salt but every run of the GFS breaks out a massive high pressure Ridge.

This would guarantee 2020 a top 5 lowest finish.   And would be excitingly compelling to follow daily.

[Freegrass]

I have a question for anyone here regarding the importance of continental snow levels in evaluating the sea ice situation. My simple interpretation is that they are an indicator of continental albedo. Lower continental albedo means the land can heat up more and has increased potential to contribute heat to the ice via warm air advection (WAA). Do others see it the same way or is their more to the connection between continental snow and sea ice?

I think the biggest problem is that by taking away the blanket of snow too early, that you're opening up the permafrost to melt earlier. And I'm guessing here, but I think that more methane release heats up the atmosphere in the arctic even more. I'm not sure about that! I'm sure others will be able to explain that much better than me.

Another problem I see is that Siberian rivers are depositing a lot more fresh water earlier, causing earlier melting of sea ice.

And early snow loss will dry out the land quicker. And you need that moisture to cool the air. (another guess)

[Phoenix]

There's is a huge correlation between anomalous and snow snow extent loss and sea ice loss.

I'm certainly not disputing that. But I'm trying to explore an understanding of process and causation. Correlation is a black box. Causation is understanding.

The snow => albedo => land based WAA process seems clear to me and I'm trying to promote awareness of the importance of land based WAA in the overall scheme of things.

What I'm trying to flesh out here are other connections between the snow levels and sea ice and clarify why we talk about snow levels.

[Phoenix]

I think the biggest problem is that by taking away the blanket of snow too early, that you're opening up the permafrost to melt earlier. And I'm guessing here, but I think that more methane release heats up the atmosphere in the arctic even more. I'm not sure about that! I'm sure others will be able to explain that much better than me.

Another problem I see is that Siberian rivers are depositing a lot more fresh water earlier, causing earlier melting of sea ice.

And early snow loss will dry out the land quicker. And you need that moisture to cool the air. (another guess)

The increased permafrost loss is certainly important to AGW progression although not necessarily materially relevant to expectations of sea ice in the current season. River ice is a separate topic. Drier land is an element leading to the land based heat advection which I am proposing is a big reason we talk about snow levels.

[oren]

Rob Dekker had/has a model predicting the outcome of melt seasons using the continental snow anomaly. I always thought the model too simplistic, but there's certainly a correlation there. Whether the causation is obvious (albedo and other feedbacks) or not so much (warm weather affecting both land snow and sea ice) is another matter.
Just don't start a continental snow/WAA crusade, this can be discussed in more depth elsewhere/in your own thread if so desired.

[Rod]

Oren, congrats on being the new moderator! I tried to get you to do it last year, and you and Neven shut me down.

Anyway, you are doing a terrific job moderating in a fair way. I got so frustrated over the melting thread last year that I just quit contributing.  I think others might have too.

However, I always lurk to see what Friv and others are saying.

Thank you for your terrific work in moderating these forums.  The melting season has just begun, and things will get crazy.  But, I can once again read the forums without getting pissed off over the nonsense.

Thanks again,
A Lurker.

[weatherdude88]

A large portion of western CAB has greater than 200 cm of snow depth on 05.26.2020.




Total snow mass for the northern hemisphere (excluding mountains) is anomalously high.



The majority of the anomaly is at high latitudes. This will lead to a slow high arctic sea ice melt season. Certain areas of the arctic may experience some periods of anomalously high 2M temperatures until some of this record breaking snow pack melts.

[Phoenix]

Rob Dekker had/has a model predicting the outcome of melt seasons using the continental snow anomaly. I always thought the model too simplistic, but there's certainly a correlation there. Whether the causation is obvious (albedo and other feedbacks) or not so much (warm weather affecting both land snow and sea ice) is another matter.
Just don't start a continental snow/WAA crusade, this can be discussed in more depth elsewhere/in your own thread if so desired.

I'm just searching for an elegant and simple understanding of the sea ice that is as accessible to as many people as possible.

On one hand we have sea ice and on the other we have the sun, which is the source of virtually all heat on earth. We have three transportation media between the two end points....atmosphere, water and land with wind as an important transportation facilitator. The sea ice story is a story about transportation and the result is the sum of the transportation processes.

The connection between the seasonal snow levels and the seasonal sea ice results seems pretty simple to me. Given the fact that snow levels are commonly discussed on this thread, it seems like a no-brainer to explain why they are important to the seasonal sea ice results.

If endeavoring to educate and make the processes easier to understand is considered crusading, I plead guilty.

[Frivolousz21]

A large portion of western CAB has greater than 200 CM of snow depth on 05.26.2020.




Total snow mass for the northern hemisphere (excluding mountains) is anomalously high.



The majority of the anomaly is at high latitudes. This will lead to a slow high arctic sea ice melt season. Certain areas of the arctic may experience some periods of anomalously high 2M temperatures until some of this record breaking snow pack melts.

That's 2 Meters or six feet.  There is no way the Western CAB has 200CM.  There just isn't enough precipitation for that. Maybe it's a snow drift from blowing snow.

The snow up there should be really dry fine and small so it can be blown around easy.

[Pavel]

The Laptev fast ice is turning blue. 2012 had it relatively at the same time. 2017-2019 had it later. But the general state of Laptev is the worst ever, and GFS supposes it will be blasted by strong heat in the first days if June

[Simon]

Given that an unusual reduction in albedo Is anticipated from 0.9 to about 0.65 over the period of 40 days when solar insolation is 500W/m2, I wonder if anyone has done an estimate of how much extra reduction in sea ice thickness will be caused by this? My own back of envelope estimate suggests about a 1cm extra reduction for each 1W/m2 of heat energy transfer. Theoretically, the sea ice could thin an extra 1.25m! That would mean the oft quoted BOE in August / September. Have I done something wrong? Loss of snow cover cannot have that large an effect surely?

[uniquorn]

A large portion of western CAB has greater than 200 CM of snow depth on 05.26.2020.

Total snow mass for the northern hemisphere (excluding mountains) is anomalously high.

The majority of the anomaly is at high latitudes. This will lead to a slow high arctic sea ice melt season. Certain areas of the arctic may experience some periods of anomalously high 2M temperatures until some of this record breaking snow pack melts.

That's 2 Meters or six feet.  There is no way the Western CAB has 200CM.  There just isn't enough precipitation for that. Maybe it's a snow drift from blowing snow.

The snow up there should be really dry fine and small so it can be blown around easy.

It must be mm. Perhaps a labelling error.

[Phoenix]

Given that an unusual reduction in albedo Is anticipated from 0.9 to about 0.65 over the period of 40 days when solar insolation is 500W/m2, I wonder if anyone has done an estimate of how much extra reduction in sea ice thickness will be caused by this? My own back of envelope estimate suggests about a 1cm extra reduction for each 1W/m2 of heat energy transfer. Theoretically, the sea ice could thin an extra 1.25m! That would mean the oft quoted BOE in August / September. Have I done something wrong? Loss of snow cover cannot have that large an effect surely?

I gave your post a like simply on the basis of your attempt to reduce this to a math equation. If you post your calculation and links supporting each assumption in your calculation then it might be easier to provide feedback.

While the early start in 2020 albedo loss is noted, i don't think anyone is suggesting a 40 day head start vs. recent years. A week ahead of last year would be a considerable advantage.The 500W/m2 is not constant over time or latitude, but not fluctuating a whole lot over a week either. Check the data for the duration of the advantage period N of 80N (where the majority of the ice is likely to be located at the minimum). You may want to throw in a small factor for clouds as well instead of maximum potential insolation.

if you arrived at / near a BOE expectation, there is probably an assumption that needs checking. Keep at it !!

[binntho]

Perhaps a bit more effort at content and even calculation, end slightly less emphasis on the condescension.

[Garabaldi]

Phoenix, as a lurker (whose overall perspective mirrors Friv), I want to commend you for your response to recent criticism— though i felt it was sometimes valid. In my field (economics/urban geography) the balance argument provided by this blog is simply a dream - your actions in  proactively accommodating such criticism is very much appreciated.

Though I do not have the expertise to meaningfully contribute to conversation, but as a lurking geographer, i believe the recent focus on dynamics of specific regions is most overdue - net statistics don't describe the path they just point you in the right direction.

[uniquorn]

Snow and ice around the Polarstern, north of Svalbard, yesterday. 360deg image viewer here
Bare ice is visible at centre (all around, in fact). click for full resolution.

[binntho]

Snow and ice around the Polarstern, north of Svalbard, yesterday. 360deg image viewer here
Bare ice is visible at centre. click for full resolution.

Very interesting. From experience, I would say that the shiny white is wet snow, perhaps very thin and probably fresh (i.e. sleet or wet snowfall within the last few days?)

Blue colouring is visilbe around the leads, this I would see as reflection of daylight inside wet snow, i.e. we are seeing edges of perhaps thicker snow where the leads are opening up. Part of it could be reflection of the water in the lead.

The steel-gray areas look like typical ice with a melting and slightly wet surface.

Nothing resembling proper melt ponds (the blue colorings are not meltponds in my opinion although at first it may look like it).

The above is based on experience with snow, ice and glaciers but since the age of 4 I have not seen proper actual arctic sea ice myself (and I can't say that I really remember it). Somebody actually on the Polarstern could perhaps give a commentary of what we are seeing?

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

_{Not for people with low bandwidth!}

[gerontocrat]

The sea ice area in the Central Arctic Sea (which extends over 3.22 million km2 of ocean) has declined from highest in the satellite record on April 16 (#42) to lowest in the satellite record on the 26th May (#1).

Whether such strong sea ice area losses can be maintained from the current sea ice area of 3.03 million km2, is, of course, another story.